Yup, looking good for those that have Pollard and can count on a possible full workload
Yup, looking good for those that have Pollard and can count on a possible full workload
Exactly!! That said, it’s tough to start Pollard because we don’t know if Zeke will be effective and how many touches Dallas will give him after last week’s great gamefixed
Ezekiel Elliott rushed 14 times for 42 yards and one touchdown, catching 3-of-4 targets for 19 yards in the passing game in the Cowboys' Week 17 loss to the Giants.
Elliott finishes the season 21 yards short of 1,000, totaling 244-979-6 on the ground with 52 catches for 338 yards and a pair of scores as a receiver. Elliott looked poised for a huge 2020 through five weeks, but Dak Prescott's season-ending broken ankle proved to be a huge loss for the entire offense, as Zeke faced stacked boxes the rest of the way while running behind an injury-ruined offensive line. His 4.01 YPC marked a new career low, and Elliott posted just two 100-yard rushing days. Elliott has six years left on his contract, and Dallas doesn't really have a sensible way out of it until 2022. As long as Prescott is back, Elliott should reclaim RB1 status next season.
- Rotoworld
https://twitter.com/gehlkennfl/status/1402332964156055554?s=21Michael Gehlken @GehlkenNFL
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott displayed explosive lateral quickness on one run, sharp spin move on another. After each, Elliott nodded his head when running into end zone. Elliott having a great spring, and he knows it.
Dak Prescott believes Ezekiel Elliott is in the best shape of his life.
"Best shape of his life" is more of a baseball trope, but it is encouraging to hear after Elliott spent much of 2020 playing through injury. “He’s in the best shape of his life. Looking fast," Prescott said of his running back. "Everybody’s seen the clips of him working out independently with his RBs coach. His cuts, just how explosive he is. Excited to have a full year with him again and getting him healthy throughout the whole season.” Regardless of how good of shape Elliott is in, the more important developments are the return of Prescott and what should be improved health along the offensive line. There is zero indication the Cowboys are planning anything other than Elliott's typical bell-cow workload. He's in the driver's seat to finish in the top five at running back.
SOURCE: Dallas Morning News
Jun 12, 2021, 2:16 PM ET
In viewing Amari or Zeke for this year in redraft, I mainly just look at their production in games 1-5 last year. But Lamb is a tremendous slot WR last year and I’m also liking Pollard this year bc he’s such an efficient back.How much of it is Zeke slowing down and how much is Dak being out, injuries to the O-line, Zeke being banged up?
I appreciate the get out while there's time sense in dynasty. What about redraft?
I think he can be more effective this coming season. I do worry/wonder how much Pollard eats into the workload.
That is a good get in my opinion.The demise of one Ezekiel Elliott has been greatly exaggerated. Outside of last year he's been a grade A bluechip player every season going back a decade to OSU. He was built to play RB. He's the most professional running back in the NFL - considering onfield only.
Remember early in his career going thru off field issues when Zeke couldn't practice all week inseason just to be cleared late in the week and go out produce 125 and 1.5 TDs?
The continued chatter of Tony Pollard eating into Zeke's touches because he looks more athletic is funny IMO.
Shortly after the season I offered the 1.08 and RoJo for Zeke and it got accepted, I was happily surprised.
I don't care how well he speaks as long as he runs and catches well.Cowboys running backs coach Josh Hicks said Ezekiel Elliott is "way quicker, way more elusive, more fluent" than he was in 2020.
Zeke is coming off his worst pro season. He posted career lows in rushing yards (979), yards per carry (4.0), rushing touchdowns (6) and rushes of 20-plus yards (3) amid the Cowboys' offensive struggles after Dak Prescott's season-ending ankle injury in Week 5.
If one pro rated the 4 game sample to 16 (oy vey this type of thing is going to harder to do for 17 games now) Elliot would have ended up with 280 rushing attempts 1092 rushing yards 12 TD 92 receptions 636 yards 4 TDThe popular narrative at the moment is that Zeke should get a pass for last year because Dak got hurt, the offensive line suffered a lot of injuries and the defense was bad, etc. I get it and it's certainly possible that he regains his previous form this season but I also think there's a chance that we're seeing a running back in slow decline. He actually wasn't so amazing in the 4 games when Dak was in:
Week 1: 22/96/1, 3/31/1 @ LAR (granted, very strong performance against this defense)
Week 2: 22/89/1, 6/33/0 vs ATL
Week 3: 14/34/1, 6/24/0 @ SEA
Week 4: 12/54/0, 8/71/0 vs CLE
Total: 70/273/3, 3.90 YPC, 23/159/1
Not bad but not great - being in shootouts in weeks 2-4 padded the receiving numbers.
Unless you think the change in YPC is permanent for some reason, why do you think Elliot won't return to his career average of 4.5 YPC?Here's a 3 year trend:
2018: 304 carries, 1434 yards, 4.7 YPC
2019: 301 carries, 1357 yards, 4.5 YPC
2020: 244 carries, 979 yards, 4.0 YPC
Pollard had 86 rushing attempts and 20 targets as a rookie in 2019 and Elliot had 301 rushing attempts and 71 targets that same season.The other factor that can't be overlooked is Tony Pollard. No, he's not going to take the lead job by any stretch but could he take more carries? Yes. Zeke had 3 runs over 20 yards last year in 244 carries. Pollard had 4 in 101 carries. Pollard averaged 2.4 rushing yards after contact per attempt. Zeke averaged 2.1. They are distinctly different kinds of runners and a great pair for the Cowboys but I don't think Zeke is going back to 300 carry territory. The Cowboys should have around 470 carries as a team, give or take 20-30. I think you'll see a split along these lines (assuming everyone is healthy) --
Zeke: 255
Pollard: 125
Dak: 55
Other: 35
He can still be highly productive with that workload but I don't think we're going to see the Zeke of 2018-2019.
I agree 100% with this but would make a distinction.. He actually wasn't so amazing in the 4 games when Dak was in:
He is a late second to me. He ran lethargic and looked used up at the end of the season. Dak or no dak he looked like a lumbering old rbMan ran fine first 5 games. They all struggled after Dak was lost. Gonna be alright I’ll take him at the discount if I’m drafting in the back half.
In my experience most fantasy players aren’t the best at evaluating RBs independent of context. Backs who get great blocking and lots of scoring opportunities are often described as explosive or having juice whereas backs with bad blocking and nowhere to run are often described as sluggish or lethargic.He is a late second to me. He ran lethargic and looked used up at the end of the season. Dak or no dak he looked like a lumbering old rb
I'm in 100% agreement with the bolded.He is a late second to me. He ran lethargic and looked used up at the end of the season. Dak or no dak he looked like a lumbering old rb
He is in the 2nd tier for me for running backs, then I am going Kelce, top WR or Kittle over him therefor putting him on my board at the end of the 2nd. Now way I pass on a top WR/TE for him.In my experience most fantasy players aren’t the best at evaluating RBs independent of context. Backs who get great blocking and lots of scoring opportunities are often described as explosive or having juice whereas backs with bad blocking and nowhere to run are often described as sluggish or lethargic.
In 2020 Zeke lost pretty much every member of his o-line and his QB and played on a team with no defense and disastrous game scripts week after week. The offense fell into nearly complete dysfunction and the results in the running game should not surprise anyone. Had Derrick Henry played on the Cowboys last season fans would be saying he’s washed and sluggish too.
I’m not trying to argue that Ezekiel Elliot is a special unicorn, certainly he is subject to the same wear and tear that grinds down every high volume RB over time. To my eye he isn’t as fast or explosive as he once was but he didn’t fall off a cliff either. I respect the boldness of the Zeke is a late 2nd rounder take but I think he’s far more likely to be a first round value
So you think Elliot was lazy and not at peak conditioning?I'm in 100% agreement with the bolded.
As for the non-bolded I think part of his lethargy was related to related to his conditioning. I'm a firm believer in wear and tear for RB's and I also think RB's are aging worse then ever but better conditioning and his volume I expect him to have puts him a good round higher in redraft then you have him. Now in dynasty I'd be trying to hot potato him now or as soon he shows well.
He was not in good shape. Period.So you think Elliot was lazy and not at peak conditioning?
Or was he playing through an injury?
I heard that he was and playing through an injury and that can make a guy not look as good as their normal self.
I don’t think he ever fully recovered from Covid last yearI'm in 100% agreement with the bolded.
As for the non-bolded I think part of his lethargy was related to related to his conditioning. I'm a firm believer in wear and tear for RB's and I also think RB's are aging worse then ever but better conditioning and his volume I expect him to have puts him a good round higher in redraft then you have him. Now in dynasty I'd be trying to hot potato him now or as soon he shows well.
He’s still getting paid big $. Why should he start giving a damn now?I think it's a whole lot simpler than many here are making it. The Cowboys entered 2020 with very high expectations, both within, and outside of the organization. Once Dak went down, the 2020 Cowboys' Season was over, and he knew it. I'm sure it was something many felt at all levels. I know plenty of fans did. At that point, I think he just stopped giving a damn. Whether you want to say he 'lost heart', 'lacked motivation' 'didn't give maximum effort', 'stopped playing hard', 'packed it in'...that's what it looked like to me - it looked like he was 'playing out the string', waiting for the Season to be over. That can happen when something catastrophic occurs that takes the wind out of one's sails, which is exactly what happened in Dallas when Dak went down...IMHO.
The point I have tried to make and I believe pantherclub as well is that he did not look good before Dak went down. Again, he was good for fantasy, not the same thing. That's my take, hard to sit on a fantasy message board and say a guy did not look good when he's putting up big fantasy stats and have a lot of support for what you are saying. But I though was heading for a Trent Richardson like rookie season even before Dak ever went down, which is to say fool proof for fantasy due mainly to the right kind of volume but as I learned the hard way back then not necessarily playing at a high level.I think it's a whole lot simpler than many here are making it. The Cowboys entered 2020 with very high expectations, both within, and outside of the organization. Once Dak went down, the 2020 Cowboys' Season was over, and he knew it. I'm sure it was something many felt at all levels. I know plenty of fans did. At that point, I think he just stopped giving a damn.
The Cowboys have an out in his contract next year. If he wants it to get picked up or restructure for a decent amount, he'll have to hold up beyond then.He’s still getting paid big $. Why should he start giving a damn now?
I didn't think he looked washed up, I thought he looked like he was half assing it.pantherclub said:He is a late second to me. He ran lethargic and looked used up at the end of the season. Dak or no dak he looked like a lumbering old rb
I strike the Ogre with my broadsword.couple Zeke thoughts today:
- Elliot has always been a Volume play. I was listening to a podcast today and they were talking about a thing called expected fantasy points. Now I don’t know where to find that data. Basically, based on where are you getting your touches, what type of touches, D&D, field position, based on situation the formula comes up with “expected fantasy football points.” Zeke has never been that good. Like in his glory years he was a top-five back and like 15th expected points.
starts at 9:52I strike the Ogre with my broadsword.
The expected fantasy points would be based on what an average player does with a rushing attempt or target. If you are hearing that EE has never been good, what I think they mean is his EFP have been below that average.
Not sure about this but its possible I suppose.
As with any stat without context its somewhat meaningless. Who had better EFP than Elliot? Considering how well he has done so far in his career it would take some real pretzel logic for EE to end up below average at this or anything.
Okay. I try to use a shield bash on the Ogre.
So what Mike is saying is that Elliot was very bad in FPE last season, but when he mentions this from previous seasons, he says Elliot was 14th in FPE in 2017 (thats good but Mikes tone downplays this fact) number 53 in 2018 number 23 in 2019 then 164 in 2020 (which was very bad).
QB - You already mentioned it.Picked up this tidbit from Rich Hribar (who's excellent) on Twitter:
Zeke was 5/12 converting carries from the one yard line in 2020. He was 12/14 over his first four years. he was 5/22 inside of the 5 (22.7%) last year after converting 53.7% of those carries prior to last season.
Is that solely because of the injuries to the line and Dalton vs Dak? Or solely because he was out of shape? In decline? Guessing a little of all of those things.
Edit to add:
Full article is here. Great stuff!
34th (of 47 qualifying backs) on /carry YBCPicked up this tidbit from Rich Hribar (who's excellent) on Twitter:
Zeke was 5/12 converting carries from the one yard line in 2020. He was 12/14 over his first four years. he was 5/22 inside of the 5 (22.7%) last year after converting 53.7% of those carries prior to last season.
Is that solely because of the injuries to the line and Dalton vs Dak? Or solely because he was out of shape? In decline? Guessing a little of all of those things.
Edit to add:
Full article is here. Great stuff!
Great post, as usual. I agree with what you're saying - Zeke is in an excellent situation with lots of opportunity so he will produce. However, I don't expect a full rebound and don't think the ceiling is what it once was. I also think there's a bit more risk than some acknowledge. I see him as someone to target in the 7-12 range but not before.34th (of 47 qualifying backs) on /carry YBC
he was def getting hit almost immediately often on carries & I think the offense was very predictable.
that said, we’ve seen this movie before, right? generational talent gets a massive amount of touches in his first 3-4 years and then falls off a cliff: Gurley the last couple years, Earl Campbell back in the day. he def looked average at times but sometimes it’s really hard to separate bad O-line play & a RB who has lost his edge.
OTOH, I’d love to see a Venn diagram of FF managers who think he’s toast and who drafted him with 3rd pick a year ago. probably looks a lot like the folks who took Sanders 9th or Mixon 11th and have them on their 2021 DND list.
one to think about here @TS Garp - if you believe Elliott is still a Kareem Hunt level talent (e.g., he’s no longer great but he should still be good), then he’s a really good candidate for positive regression. In 2019 he converted 10/18 inside the 5. Last year it was 5/26. If you look at historical data, of all the backs who have seen 20 RZ carries inside the 5, none had converted less than 6. The average was 9. Just from a mathematical standpoint he was a little unlucky. In addition, Dak scored 3 rush TDs in 4-2/3rds GP. It’s reasonable to expect Dak’s rush TD to decline and Zeke’s to increase to historical average. IOW, I’m not saying Elliott has always been amazing and he’s gonna be amazing again. I’m saying he’s still the man in D and if he has the same RZ chances and converts at an average rate in 202 then he’ll see positive regression
Well we know that RB tend to have their best performances when they are young. 25 seems to be the main cut off age, where they do not have the same ceiling they once had younger than this. That is not to say that these RB cant have very productive seasons after age 25. Just that for the majority of RB historically have their best seasons when they are younger.Great post, as usual. I agree with what you're saying - Zeke is in an excellent situation with lots of opportunity so he will produce. However, I don't expect a full rebound and don't think the ceiling is what it once was. I also think there's a bit more risk than some acknowledge. I see him as someone to target in the 7-12 range but not before.
I think both these conclusions align with where I am landing. For the past 5 years - maybe not his rookie year and def not his suspension year - you drafted him with the expectation he’d perform at a top 3 level down the stretch. His ceiling is lower now - RB5/6 would not surprise me - but I feel like he still has a safe enough volume floor to warrant a first round pick.Well we know that RB tend to have their best performances when they are young. 25 seems to be the main cut off age, where they do not have the same ceiling they once had younger than this. That is not to say that these RB cant have very productive seasons after age 25. Just that for the majority of RB historically have their best seasons when they are younger.Great post, as usual. I agree with what you're saying - Zeke is in an excellent situation with lots of opportunity so he will produce. However, I don't expect a full rebound and don't think the ceiling is what it once was. I also think there's a bit more risk than some acknowledge. I see him as someone to target in the 7-12 range but not before.
From an analytic historical perspective Elliot checks every box and he is in some rare company with guys like LT and Edge as far as age coming into the league, draft position and production that has me thinking he is one of the guys who will have a longer and more productive career than most RB will.
He might not be top 3 anymore but as bad as it was for Elliot last season he was still RB 11 or 12 depending on your scoring system and I expect him to be that in 2021.
Oh yeah. If I want to I can talk myself out of drafting anybody. They all have risks.I think both these conclusions align with where I am landing. For the past 5 years - maybe not his rookie year and def not his suspension year - you drafted him with the expectation he’d perform at a top 3 level down the stretch. His ceiling is lower now - RB5/6 would not surprise me - but I feel like he still has a safe enough volume floor to warrant a first round pick.
Teams are def more focused on stopping Dak & his high level WRs then worrying about what to do to limit Zeke.
Maybe I’ve just been playing too long but I feel like I could find warts/fears about every single 1st round back. Injury risk (CMC, Cooks, Saquan, Eckler), QB uncertainty (Kamara, Jones), PPR usage (Henry, Chubb), inflated 2020 numbers v weak schedule (Taylor), mileage (Elliott, Henry again.) Balance that against these are also historical league winner guys who could def hit again.