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RB Ezekiel Elliott, LAC (5 Viewers)


For those that want to put eyeballs on what some of us Zeke holdouts are hoping for, take a look at the Cowboys 2022 week 6 highlights vs Eagles and week 7 highlights vs Lions. This is the point where you can say that he should be fully recovered from the '21 PCL, before getting banged up in '22.

Self-correction, here. Based on internet medical prognosis for a grade 3 PCL partial tear, he should have been good to go from the start of 2022. 4.06 yards per carry weeks1 through 7. Not great, but on par with his 2017 & 2020 YPC. Situational usage with Pollard's emergence will certainly impact this as well.
 
4.06 yards per carry weeks1 through 7

YPC isn't the greatest stat to use. It's even worse when considering how many red zone carries Zeke got. It'll truncate that number something fierce.
RBs are really hard to project without assessing a lot of other things. They are very dependent on blocking. This was discussed on TV in Boston the other night. The panel mentioned that Damien Harris really wasn't great at juking people, so if he got hit behind the LOS or right at it, the play wouldn't go for much. But he was good at getting through holes when blocked, and with a head of steam was very hard to tackle. He could take an 8-yard run and extend it to 15 yards by dragging people with him.

Stevenson also had times where he probably could have lowered his shoulder and taken a negative play and fought for a 2-yard gain. But he would hesitate and try to juke people and would end up with a 3-yard loss. But other times he could sidestep a defender and get around the edge and turn that into a 12-yard gain.

Then they suggested what would happen in those same situations with Elliott. If the hole was there for 8 yards, he'd get the 8 yards and fall forward for another yard. If there wasn't much blocking and the play wasn't going anywhere, he'd slam into the pile and get 2 yards. But he wasn't going to juke anyone and then get around the edge. He wouldn't end up with a 10-yard run in any of the situations they brought up, but he got positive yards out of everything. All of those examples had positive and negative impacts on each play, and depending upon the down and distance, that could impact the success or failure of a drive.
 
4.06 yards per carry weeks1 through 7

YPC isn't the greatest stat to use. It's even worse when considering how many red zone carries Zeke got. It'll truncate that number something fierce.
True.

His RYOE per attempt was 6th worst in the league and only one of the 5 worse then him not fighting for a roster spot was Najee.

Pollard fwiw was 2nd best.

I'm ok with people not buying into some of these metrics like RYOE, just another data point to analyze.
 
If the hole was there for 8 yards, he'd get the 8 yards and fall forward for another yard. If there wasn't much blocking and the play wasn't going anywhere, he'd slam into the pile and get 2 yards. But he wasn't going to juke anyone and then get around the edge. He wouldn't end up with a 10-yard run in any of the situations they brought up, but he got positive yards out of everything. All of those examples had positive and negative impacts on each play, and depending upon the down and distance, that could impact the success or failure of a drive.

This sounds like a combination of RYOE and success rate, two stats that are useful to measure running backs by. I'm not sure where to get them, but when they're presented to me, they usually jive with what I've been seeing.
 
4.06 yards per carry weeks1 through 7

YPC isn't the greatest stat to use. It's even worse when considering how many red zone carries Zeke got. It'll truncate that number something fierce.

I largely agree (and not trying to be an overly defensive jerk), but this is why the rest of my statement compared this to two seasons of vintage Zeke and implied that a higher percentage of short yardage situational usage would negatively impact this. Just trying to get ahead of the "look at his stat line compared to one of the most dynamic RB talents in the league, he's clearly washed" arguments. :-)

Main point is that he passed the eyeball test as recently as week 6 and week 7 of last season (where one stat line was great and one wasn't). Maybe he did after the Detroit (injury) game as well, but no, the final stretch wasn't pretty. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that those were largely health related, as was his finish to 2021.
 
Are there any examples of bad RYOE players who improved significantly the next year?


Barkley , Jacobs, and Ekeler negative in '21 and high in '22.

CMC negative in '21 and positive in '22.

Herbert negative in '21 and the top RYOE/att in '22.


I think Barkley, Jacobs, and CMC would probably be a feather in the cap for RYOE based on perceived sub-par 2021s and strong performances in 2022, not that I've been grinding film. Herbert is a little puzzling as I thought the perception was that he did quite well with his rushing opportunities in his rookie year. Ekeler, the same. Not sure what would account for the large swing from 2021 to 2022.

Worth noting that Zeke's RYOE% was more in the middle of the pack in 2022, compared to his RYOE/att.


I'll be honest, if you would have asked me a week ago, my best guess was that RYOE was the expectation of yardage on a given play based on historical data for situational running at various down & distance, possibly with score and game clock factored in. The fact that it's actually an attempt to evaluate rushing performance based on next gen data's attempt to gauge what was actually blocked on any given play was a mild surprise. It's definitely an intriguing data point, but I'm not sure I have total confidence that the current model has mastered what makes a quality block. I'm sure it will become more reliable over time. Certainly, there are plenty of examples of this running back was awful last year, and look, he indeed had a terrible RYOE and vise versa. There are also some puzzling outliers that don't seem to make sense.
 
Ezekiel Elliott rushed seven times for 29 yards in the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles, adding five receptions for an additional 14 yards.

Elliott got a decent share of the workload behind Rhamondre Stevenson with 12 total touches. It should be noted that Zeke out-targeted Stevenson (seven to six). Elliott mustered up some solid runs on his way to averaging 4.1 YPC. He’ll continue backing up Stevenson going forward.

- Rotoworld
 
Ezekiel Elliott rushed seven times for 29 yards in the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles, adding five receptions for an additional 14 yards.

Elliott got a decent share of the workload behind Rhamondre Stevenson with 12 total touches. It should be noted that Zeke out-targeted Stevenson (seven to six). Elliott mustered up some solid runs on his way to averaging 4.1 YPC. He’ll continue backing up Stevenson going forward.

- Rotoworld
If Stevenson's numbers don't improve, he could find himself backing up Zeke in 3 or 4 games....
 
Ezekiel Elliott rushed seven times for 29 yards in the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles, adding five receptions for an additional 14 yards.

Elliott got a decent share of the workload behind Rhamondre Stevenson with 12 total touches. It should be noted that Zeke out-targeted Stevenson (seven to six). Elliott mustered up some solid runs on his way to averaging 4.1 YPC. He’ll continue backing up Stevenson going forward.

- Rotoworld
If Stevenson's numbers don't improve, he could find himself backing up Zeke in 3 or 4 games....
I mean Stevenson caught all 6 targets for 11 ypr, and was sick a few days ago. If anything they didn’t pass to Stevenson enough
 
Ezekiel Elliott rushed seven times for 29 yards in the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles, adding five receptions for an additional 14 yards.

Elliott got a decent share of the workload behind Rhamondre Stevenson with 12 total touches. It should be noted that Zeke out-targeted Stevenson (seven to six). Elliott mustered up some solid runs on his way to averaging 4.1 YPC. He’ll continue backing up Stevenson going forward.

- Rotoworld
If Stevenson's numbers don't improve, he could find himself backing up Zeke in 3 or 4 games....
No way. Here's there for cop and goal line duties. Some games he may be more involved due to game script but Stevenson looked alot better than him even being sick.
 
Ezekiel Elliott rushed seven times for 29 yards in the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles, adding five receptions for an additional 14 yards.

Elliott got a decent share of the workload behind Rhamondre Stevenson with 12 total touches. It should be noted that Zeke out-targeted Stevenson (seven to six). Elliott mustered up some solid runs on his way to averaging 4.1 YPC. He’ll continue backing up Stevenson going forward.

- Rotoworld
If Stevenson's numbers don't improve, he could find himself backing up Zeke in 3 or 4 games....
no need to panic. They were up against a really good D this week.

this combined with shaking the rust off first week of the season.... I'd be willing to grant a mulligan.
 
Zeke just went 15 or 16 for 80 against the Jets, which is no small feat.

classic case of fans unwilling to see an emerging dynamic.

I don't understand this...the numbers don't lie so who is unwilling to see it (now liking it may be a different story)...only one game but Zeke appears to be playing better but Stevenson is in a funk...one thing is good but one is very bad as Stevenson may be their only potential high-end weapon...he needs to get going to help this offense get out of neutral.
 
Zeke just went 15 or 16 for 80 against the Jets, which is no small feat.

classic case of fans unwilling to see an emerging dynamic.
It's certainly one way to look at it and can see a case be made. I'd challenge it's yet another case of box score scouting. Elliot saw 9 of his 16 rush attempts in the 4th quarter when the Patriots were trying to close out the game. In other words, he was used in the role most people predicted he'd be used in. It's his strength; no turn overs, no negative yards. And he definitely looked better with those opportunities than he did the first two weeks. OTOH, Rhamondre still ran 19 routes to Elliot's 6, and was on the field for 65% of New England's offensive snaps. Lowest of the season, but that was the game script. Will that continue? It could. But I'd agree with LawFitz, they won't be playing the Jets anemic offense every week. The next 5 weeks against the Cowboys, Saints, Bills, Raiders, and Dolphins I'm guessing a lot more negative game scripts. When the Patriots are trailing in games, I'm still betting Rhamondre is the back who will be on the field, and will be utilized in the passing game. I think that snap share will jump back over 70% where it was the first two weeks. I'd personally be buying low on Rhamondre if league owners are down on him, and would definitely be shopping Zeke if people are putting that much stock in this Jets game.
 
Zeke just went 15 or 16 for 80 against the Jets, which is no small feat.

classic case of fans unwilling to see an emerging dynamic.
It's certainly one way to look at it and can see a case be made. I'd challenge it's yet another case of box score scouting. Elliot saw 9 of his 16 rush attempts in the 4th quarter when the Patriots were trying to close out the game. In other words, he was used in the role most people predicted he'd be used in. It's his strength; no turn overs, no negative yards. And he definitely looked better with those opportunities than he did the first two weeks. OTOH, Rhamondre still ran 19 routes to Elliot's 6, and was on the field for 65% of New England's offensive snaps. Lowest of the season, but that was the game script. Will that continue? It could. But I'd agree with LawFitz, they won't be playing the Jets anemic offense every week. The next 5 weeks against the Cowboys, Saints, Bills, Raiders, and Dolphins I'm guessing a lot more negative game scripts. When the Patriots are trailing in games, I'm still betting Rhamondre is the back who will be on the field, and will be utilized in the passing game. I think that snap share will jump back over 70% where it was the first two weeks. I'd personally be buying low on Rhamondre if league owners are down on him, and would definitely be shopping Zeke if people are putting that much stock in this Jets game.

Agreed...as much as BB wants to play like it is 1955 in 2023 they cannot continue with an offense that has scored 20,17 and 13 (the other 2 were a safety) points...it is just not sustainable...with their current talent on offense one of the keys to improving is Stevenson...outside of Douglas there is not much upside with the other skill position players.
 
I'd challenge it's yet another case of box score scouting

You'd be wrong. I watched the whole game and he outran Stevenson. He had an explosive run in the first quarter and really didn't stop outrunning Stevenson. That doesn't mean that will happen in the future. It happened in the Meadowlands.
 
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I'd challenge it's yet another case of box score scouting

You'd be wrong. I watched the whole game and he outran Stevenson. He had an explosive run in the first quarter and really didn't stop outrunning Stevenson. That doesn't mean that will happen in the future. It happened in the Meadowlands.
That was a reply to the notion it's "fans unwilling to see an emerging dynamic". And a generalization, again like the comment I was replying to. But for you specifically Hugsy, it sounds like it would not apply.
 
That was a reply to the notion it's "fans unwilling to see an emerging dynamic". And a generalization, again like the comment I was replying to. But for you specifically Hugsy, it sounds like it would not apply.

Gotcha. Indeed, I went on to say that I was just stating facts, but I realized the rest of your post was directed at somebody else, so I refrained.

I did see the game, though. In my opinion, Elliott outran Stevenson. That and the playing time inversion iis likely, as you point out, to end -- and soon -- but it was true for this past Sunday.

eta* And like I imply, your later point was a good one. Stevenson should take this job back. That's also just my opinion.
 
That was a reply to the notion it's "fans unwilling to see an emerging dynamic". And a generalization, again like the comment I was replying to. But for you specifically Hugsy, it sounds like it would not apply.

Gotcha. Indeed, I went on to say that I was just stating facts, but I realized the rest of your post was directed at somebody else, so I refrained.

I did see the game, though. In my opinion, Elliott outran Stevenson. That and the playing time inversion iis likely, as you point out, to end -- and soon -- but it was true for this past Sunday.

eta* And like I imply, your later point was a good one. Stevenson should take this job back. That's also just my opinion.
Yeah I watched a good chunk of it and would agree. Elliot had a few runs of 10+ yards, and despite not being used quite as much as Rhamondre through the first half, was doing a bit more with the touches. I didn't think it was a stark difference, but no splitting hairs, better is better.

I was never a Zeke is washed guy, and came into the season figuring he would be just as good inside as RS, if not even a bit better. Unfortunately, they both looked meh through two weeks on the ground. RS was at least holding around a solid 4.5+ ypc last season, bouyed by two or three long ones a game, and I just haven't seen that this year. Now in the third week we finally saw it from Zeke. So can't blame it all on the line/scheme. And it could move him into stealing a few more series a game for sure. Hopefully RS runs with a little more aggression here soon, because I don't know if the receiving game alone will justify his ADP right now. Still early in the season though, and should be some better game scripts for him here in the next few weeks.
 
Yeah I watched a good chunk of it and would agree. Elliot had a few runs of 10+ yards, and despite not being used quite as much as Rhamondre through the first half, was doing a bit more with the touches. I didn't think it was a stark difference, but no splitting hairs, better is better.
Although my earlier comment was a little caustic, this is really all I was trying to say....in part because it was surprising to see.
 
Yeah I watched a good chunk of it and would agree. Elliot had a few runs of 10+ yards, and despite not being used quite as much as Rhamondre through the first half, was doing a bit more with the touches. I didn't think it was a stark difference, but no splitting hairs, better is better.
Although my earlier comment was a little caustic, this is really all I was trying to say....in part because it was surprising to see.
I don't think it's even wrong to thing Zeke might be taking a few more series in neutral and positive game scripts after this week. RS is not running like he was last season. I'm hoping it can turn a bit here, because like I said in the last post, while the majority of his value comes in the receiving game, I think he needs the ground work to pad his stats and really justify his ADP. I won't call him a bust yet, but to this point he's been a bit of a disappointment for sure. I guess looking at the RB position in general, I can say at least he isn't injured or benched lol.
 
Watch this guy be a league winner down the stretch. There really is no rhyme or reason. To this hobby

I had reasons in dynasty to hold him, and I benefitted to the tune of 25.50 points (23.50 Half PPR plus one tackle for IDP purposes). I didn't even want to start him against Pittsburgh, so you're half-right. But he's great bench depth to have in case something happened to Stevenson. I don't know that if when Bill Belichick sits down and sees the YPC and the film he'll be overly happy, but he fed Zeke in a big fantasy football game tonight.

He had a killer full PPR night. Like, totally legit.
 
Watch this guy be a league winner down the stretch. There really is no rhyme or reason. To this hobby

I had reasons in dynasty to hold him, and I benefitted to the tune of 25.50 points (23.50 Half PPR plus one tackle for IDP purposes). I didn't even want to start him against Pittsburgh, so you're half-right. But he's great bench depth to have in case something happened to Stevenson. I don't know that if when Bill Belichick sits down and sees the YPC and the film he'll be overly happy, but he fed Zeke in a big fantasy football game tonight.

He had a killer full PPR night. Like, totally legit.
Not just that, but running down that INT will earn him credit in the locker room. That was a big play.
 
Watch this guy be a league winner down the stretch. There really is no rhyme or reason. To this hobby

I had reasons in dynasty to hold him, and I benefitted to the tune of 25.50 points (23.50 Half PPR plus one tackle for IDP purposes). I didn't even want to start him against Pittsburgh, so you're half-right. But he's great bench depth to have in case something happened to Stevenson. I don't know that if when Bill Belichick sits down and sees the YPC and the film he'll be overly happy, but he fed Zeke in a big fantasy football game tonight.

He had a killer full PPR night. Like, totally legit.
Not just that, but running down that INT will earn him credit in the locker room. That was a big play.
Dammit! Didn’t watch the game but had underwhelming Pitt defense starting.

Sad to hear Zeke saved a possible TD.
 
I have to say I'm impressed with Zeke. He didn't mail it in. Looks to be in the best shape he's ever been. Lean, quick. Looks like a completely different player. And absolutely Dallas could have used him this year. They now realize Pollard is not who they thought he was. Typical change of pace to lead back struggles.
 
I have to say I'm impressed with Zeke. He didn't mail it in. Looks to be in the best shape he's ever been. Lean, quick. Looks like a completely different player. And absolutely Dallas could have used him this year. They now realize Pollard is not who they thought he was. Typical change of pace to lead back struggles.
Future HOfer?
 

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