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RB Gus Edwards, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ninogaggi
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I really see another RB coming in if Dobbins is lost for the season.
Ty'son Williams is smaller than Gus, but a similar runner to my eyes. Good vision and decent power to get to the next level. The backfield would need more speed and I'm not sure Justice Hill is going to be that answer.
Ty'son Williams is smaller than Gus, but a similar runner to my eyes. Good vision and decent power to get to the next level. The backfield would need more speed and I'm not sure Justice Hill is going to be that answer.
jabarony
Footballguy
Similar to Cam Akers being out, it's easy to say they'll bring in another back, but who? I don't think there's anyone out there that could be considered a threat to Gus' workload. If Dobbins is really out for the year, I can't think of many "cleaner" situations for the backup RB to be an immediate RB1. Pollard I guess. Perhaps Mattison or Dillon?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The 850 includes 129 yards receiving from 9 catches. His career best in receptions. I'd expect a committee here limiting his touches to 220 maybe 240 ceiling, implying about 1100 yards and 9 TDs and some upside on yards. Great value if you've already drafted.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I don't know how current the info on nfltraderumors.co is, but some known FAs on their list include Gurley, Yeldon, Ware, Peterson, Frank Gore, Duke Johnson, Chris Thompson, Bell, Gafney, Alfred Morris. Pickings are a little slim, but I'm sure one of them plus Hill and Williams can soak up 135 touches.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I own Gus at great value in a couple of places because I believe my eyes and certain analysts that he is a really good runner.
I just have a hard time projecting Gus to be an immediate RB1 without being more involved in the passing game. Limits his upside. I think with the injuries Baltimore has in the WR room it adds to the pressure to try and pick up a back that can bring another dimension. The running lanes for Gus aren't going to be there if him and Lamar's legs are the only real threats.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
ADP hasn’t caught up with the injury yet. For those that drafted in the last day or two, where is Gus going?
I’m drafting 5 out of 12 tomorrow and assume if I want him, I need to target 4th or 5th round.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
hamsterdam
Footballguy
I kinda swung for the fences in my 16 teamer last night and took him in the 4th round as my RB2.
Now that it’s confirmed Dobbins is out for the season I’m guessing he’s going to be picked in the 4th / 5th in a 12 man like you suspect. He’s a snap pick in the 6th imo.
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Stat Correction
Footballguy
Dicey that he'll be there in the 4th, but would be a whale of a deal. RB's are a premium commodity. Proven RB's that are slated to likely dominate carries in a prolific offense rarely clear the 3rd.
5th....no way.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Dude is good at football....he isnt a scrub.....he put up stand alone numbers in a full blown committee....feels like we are trying to find reasons not to bump him dramatically....way overthinking....he just became RB1 on possibly the best rushing team in the league....yes Jackson is still there...HE WAS ALWAYS STILL THERE.....he could easily be top 5-10.....why is this even a discussion.....yes everybody drafting already got great value....now you have to pay more...its ok...you are probbaly still going to get some value because of the exact attitude in here.....all the “ well....I don’t really know, they might bring in Gurley or ADP”....whatever....IMO he goes where Dobbins was going ....but honestly probably higher....Dobbins was going lower because of Gus...now one of them is gone...
FF= talent and opportunity......this one is easy boys don’t overthink it and get greedy and try to squeeze every ounce of value out of it.....
FF= talent and opportunity......this one is easy boys don’t overthink it and get greedy and try to squeeze every ounce of value out of it.....
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Ugh it’s been hard to find the heart to come in and post here as a Ravens fan. JK is a hard working, well liked guy and a really good player. Really sucks.
I’d slot Gus right into that mid third round. Certainly before Henderson and Sanders to me. You assume some risk that we add another early down grinder to take some carries but I don’t think that’s likely. There’s already a roster crunch with talent at DB, Wr, and OL. Williams has looked great and likely assumes a role as he’s probably passed Hill. Justice Hill plays great special teams, has flashed a some and is a good receiver.
Back to Gus, I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t go 1000/8. His median projection I think is more like 1200/10. He’s not going to give you much in the passing game. Maybe 20-25 catches. He’s not lining up in the slot and running option routes, he’s not going to be trusted to do anything down the field. JK was developing that skillset. Somehow Gus did actually have a couple deeper receptions last year against the Jags and Giants but they were off broken plays. The little screen pass Jk got hurt on, Gus can be used like that and to catch dump offs but if Ravens are in catch up mode he’s probably not on the field. Good news is the Ravens have only been in extended catch up mode maybe 2-3 times in the Lamar era so that’s probably not a huge concern. He’s more likely to be pounding on a tired defense up a score or 2.
I think if you can get Gus in the 4th you’ll be very happy. Heal up JK!
I’d slot Gus right into that mid third round. Certainly before Henderson and Sanders to me. You assume some risk that we add another early down grinder to take some carries but I don’t think that’s likely. There’s already a roster crunch with talent at DB, Wr, and OL. Williams has looked great and likely assumes a role as he’s probably passed Hill. Justice Hill plays great special teams, has flashed a some and is a good receiver.
Back to Gus, I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t go 1000/8. His median projection I think is more like 1200/10. He’s not going to give you much in the passing game. Maybe 20-25 catches. He’s not lining up in the slot and running option routes, he’s not going to be trusted to do anything down the field. JK was developing that skillset. Somehow Gus did actually have a couple deeper receptions last year against the Jags and Giants but they were off broken plays. The little screen pass Jk got hurt on, Gus can be used like that and to catch dump offs but if Ravens are in catch up mode he’s probably not on the field. Good news is the Ravens have only been in extended catch up mode maybe 2-3 times in the Lamar era so that’s probably not a huge concern. He’s more likely to be pounding on a tired defense up a score or 2.
I think if you can get Gus in the 4th you’ll be very happy. Heal up JK!
Oh one more thing, Gus got Covid for the second time in early August. Had to sit the days consistent with what an unvaccinated player would sit so we can assume he wasn’t vaxxed then and probably still isn’t. He’s unlikely to get Covid in season due to having just had it but close contact with someone could still have him sit a few days I believe. Don’t know how much anyone cares about that but to my knowledge that’s where he’s at.
Lamar’s legs are the only real threat Gus needs to have lanes. You can’t defend Lamar’s running with 1 defender. Gus is great at hitting the hole hard while the defense is trying to figure out who has the ball.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Heartbroken about Dobbins as he was going to be one of my keepers, but in redraft tonight I grabbed Gus at 5.11 in a non-PPR. I’m good with that price
Stat Correction
Footballguy
I simply cannot fathom how he is falling that far. Potential, if not likely, top 10 back. Is everyone asleep?
seriously.....congratulations.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I'm sad that Dobbins got injured. That sucks.
I think Gus is certainly the guy to have here and I hope he does well with increased workload. I'm optimistic that he will.
That said based on the comments over the last page or so I feel like people are underestimating Justice Hill who I think is a really good RB as well.
I think Gus is certainly the guy to have here and I hope he does well with increased workload. I'm optimistic that he will.
That said based on the comments over the last page or so I feel like people are underestimating Justice Hill who I think is a really good RB as well.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Consensus seems to be 225/1200/10 combined after the Dobbins news. RB24. I guess wisdom of the crowd is that he won't get bell cow touches.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Wandered into no RB selected with my top 3 picks territory in a 14-team 1/2 PPR. He was a nice lifeline to grab in the middle of round 4. Pick #50, so equivalent of early round 5 in a 12-team.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Grabbed him late pre Dobbins injury on a heavy WR build draft. Dumb luck but wow.
:mansion:
:mansion:
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Took him at 4.7 in half-ppr. No problem slotting him behind J-ROB in rankings. Not sure how people would take Swift or Sanders above him with all of their question marks.
$5M salary RB's have breakout years all of the time. People are overthinking this one.
$5M salary RB's have breakout years all of the time. People are overthinking this one.
If you wait till the 6th, you’re not likely to get him. If you’re worried about overpaying in the 4th or 5th, then you probably don’t value him that highly. Agree with the consensus that he’s probably worth in same neighborhood as Dobbins was. Would be happy to get him in the 4th.SeniorVBDStudent said:
I probably won’t take him at 3.5, but depending on how the draft has gone, might very well take him at 4.8.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I guess you're right....Dobbins was a polarizing draft candidate with a wide distribution of projections.
Doesn’t have the receiving upside Dobbins did IMO. Nor the draft investment from the team. Dobbins was an early 3rd. Gus a late 3 early 4 to me. Not too big a difference.
True that it’s not a ton of upside and I mentioned that as well in the Dobbins thread. But Jk was the guy who would be on the field in passing situations and at least has the skillset to do some things Gus can’t. Gus probably gets pulled for Hill or maybe Williams on obvious passing downs.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I get that he doesn't have the same upside as Dobbins and probably shouldn't go quite as high as where Dobbins was projected. However, considering that Dobbins had competition from Gus baked into his ADP, and considering the competition to Gus is Ty'son and possibly some combo of Gurley/Bell & Justice Hill, it's not illogical to place Gus at a spot pretty close to where Dobbins was going to be. FWIW, I was not bullish on Dobbins at ADP before the injury, but was on Gus.
I think the uncertainty of the situation, the name association of Gus Edwards as a fantasy RB3/4, along with the name recognition of perceived threats like Gurley and Bell has a lot of owners nervous to pull the trigger in round 4.
In my draft, Henderson, Gaskin, and Swift went right before him. Mike Davis went after him. I put myself in a spot where I pretty much had to nab a RB in round 4. The only other guy I was giving some thought to was Hunt, but I wasn't going to take a super-RB2 on a good run offense over the new top back on another good run offense.
I think the uncertainty of the situation, the name association of Gus Edwards as a fantasy RB3/4, along with the name recognition of perceived threats like Gurley and Bell has a lot of owners nervous to pull the trigger in round 4.
In my draft, Henderson, Gaskin, and Swift went right before him. Mike Davis went after him. I put myself in a spot where I pretty much had to nab a RB in round 4. The only other guy I was giving some thought to was Hunt, but I wasn't going to take a super-RB2 on a good run offense over the new top back on another good run offense.
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Banger
Footballguy
I'm a pretty big Gurley fan and he looks like he's about done to me. I just don't see Gurley derailing value at this point even if he gets signed (which I doubt happens). He was pretty bad last year (3.5 ypc) and his only real value was the td's he was scoring...other than that there was nothing there.
I'd have to imagine Gus takes a little haircut from where Dobbins was being drafted because he's not as good a player, otherwise he'd be the starter. This will certainly be an interesting situation to watch due some uncertainty and the fact that the Ravens always have a good run game. For the cost it makes sense to try and throw a chip on any of the 3 (Edwards, Williams, Hill) and see what happens....
I'd have to imagine Gus takes a little haircut from where Dobbins was being drafted because he's not as good a player, otherwise he'd be the starter. This will certainly be an interesting situation to watch due some uncertainty and the fact that the Ravens always have a good run game. For the cost it makes sense to try and throw a chip on any of the 3 (Edwards, Williams, Hill) and see what happens....
-jb-
Footballguy
I used Gus a few years back as an injury fill-in and remembered him pretty much running up the middle in a straight line. That made me initially shy away from some huge uptick in his value here. Then I watched some YouTube and completely changed my mind. He’s gotten better. By no means do I think has has the same wiggle as Dobbins, but he reminded be of a Dollar Tree Eddie George. Not as shifty, but big bodied, long strides, tough to bring down. If (big if) they committed to using him at close to 250 carries, he could just wear down Ds.
The risk here isn’t him rather how they use him.
The risk here isn’t him rather how they use him.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I had my main home money league draft yesterday....
Had the 1.01....happily sprinted to the podium and took him at the 4.12/5.01 turn...to the groans of the rest of the room....was actually surprised in this particular league that he made it to that turn....I would guess in most leagues he defiantly won't make it past where I was 5.01....too good of value for the guy in the one hole to pass knowing no way in heck he makes it to 6.12....I thought for sure he would go anywhere in the 4th....but guys went other directions...if you are drafting this week or next weekend and he makes it past the 3.12/4.01 turn...I think you have to pounce...pretty sure if I was at the other end, he wouldn't have made it past the 4.01...
Had the 1.01....happily sprinted to the podium and took him at the 4.12/5.01 turn...to the groans of the rest of the room....was actually surprised in this particular league that he made it to that turn....I would guess in most leagues he defiantly won't make it past where I was 5.01....too good of value for the guy in the one hole to pass knowing no way in heck he makes it to 6.12....I thought for sure he would go anywhere in the 4th....but guys went other directions...if you are drafting this week or next weekend and he makes it past the 3.12/4.01 turn...I think you have to pounce...pretty sure if I was at the other end, he wouldn't have made it past the 4.01...
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
socrates
Footballguy
The next week could be very important for Edwards' value. Will the Ravens add a veteran, such as Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley? Will there be a RB of significance cut by another team, such as Latavius Murray or Mark Ingram?
I will be mildly surprised if the Ravens go into the season with Gus Edwards, Ty'Son Williams and Justice Hill as their top 3 RBs, but if they do, it suggests the level of confidence the team has in this stable of backs.
I will be mildly surprised if the Ravens go into the season with Gus Edwards, Ty'Son Williams and Justice Hill as their top 3 RBs, but if they do, it suggests the level of confidence the team has in this stable of backs.
The Finist
Footballguy
NFL reported Josina Anderson said the Ravens aren't "expected to pursue Todd Gurley, at this time."
Gurley visited with the Ravens in June, fueling speculation that the team could sign him after losing J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Anderson reports the Ravens are comfortable with their running back depth chart, which now features Gus Edwards at the top and preseason star Ty'Son Williams as the No. 2 RB. Edwards' ADP will rocket into the fourth or fifth round of 12-team drafts following Dobbins' injury.
RELATED:
Gus Edwards
, Ty'Son Williams
, Baltimore Ravens
SOURCE: Josina Anderson on Twitter
Gurley visited with the Ravens in June, fueling speculation that the team could sign him after losing J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Anderson reports the Ravens are comfortable with their running back depth chart, which now features Gus Edwards at the top and preseason star Ty'Son Williams as the No. 2 RB. Edwards' ADP will rocket into the fourth or fifth round of 12-team drafts following Dobbins' injury.
RELATED:
Gus Edwards
, Ty'Son Williams
, Baltimore Ravens
SOURCE: Josina Anderson on Twitter
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I doubt it, unless it's someone who's more of a STer. They've already got too many painful roster decisions to make at other positions. Before Dobbins got hurt, the only shot Hill had to stick was his value on ST - Williams had already moved past him on the depth chart - and I'm betting he was in real danger of getting cut anyway.
Guys like Gore, Peterson, and Gurley aren't going to help Baltimore much as-constituted (another injury could change that). I think they roll with Edwards/Williams/Hill for now.
Of course, keep in mind that I'm terrible at predictions - see any of my picks in the game threads
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
For the sake of all formats and sizes, rounds are pretty difficult to guage. Would I take him in the 45-60 pick range? Without hesitation. Anything earlier than that, you probably have some real decisions to make with proven WR's and guys in equal situation to Gus Edwards.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
one way you can kinda look at it....is what if the opposite would have happened....what if Gus would have been injured for the year...?....would Dobbins have gotten a bump....?..
I realize they are different players.....but just not sure Dobbins was that much better than Gus.....
I realize they are different players.....but just not sure Dobbins was that much better than Gus.....
Deamon
Footballguy
45-60 seems low. That means you wouldn't for sure snag him up until 4.09. I'm curious what his new ADP is just based on drafts yesterday. I'd guess around 4.06 but not sure.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
What are you concerned about? He's the clear lead RB on one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history. If you give Jackson 800-900 yards, you'll still have 1,600-1,700 yards (or more) to go around - I believe Edwards gets 65% of those. He's never rushed for less than 5 ypc. The O line has been all kinds of banged up, but getting healthier. They were a mess last year, too. But the scheme (& Jackson) make for good RB opportunities.
Unless Edwards gets hurt or gets butter-fingers or forgets how to block, he's almost a lock for over 1,000 yds and at least knocking on double-digit TDs.
I'll be interested to see where he goes in my local redraft. Many of the owners are Ravens fans, but we only have to start one RB and have a super flex, 1PPR for WRS & TEs only. So, RBs in general are depressed but Ravens RBs are usually not. If he's there in round 2 and I already took another position, I'm hopping on him. I just don't know how how long he'll lay out there. Hell, if I draw the 1.12/2.01 turn, I may take him there.
If I were in a non-local league, I'd take him no later than around the 2/3 turn. If you can get in in the 4th, you've done well.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I think Dobbins is special - thought so when he was in college - and is at least a tier better than Edwards. But Gus is a fine RB in a great situation. Your points are valid, IMO.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I think this is moving into more of a timeshare RBBC than it was when Dobbins was there. I think Dobbins had upside that Gus doesn't. The fact he is being thrust into a #1 of, what looks to be, a 50/50 timeshare does increase his ADP but it doesn't move it above some of the other guys we have questions about - Henderson/Mike Davis/Myles Gaskin for me. I think Gus is a good player and the only thing serving him is the situation, but the situation appears more cautious than what some want you to believe.
I think Dobbins is a tier above Gus - Gus doesn't appear to have the receiving chops Dobbins does. I don't know if it is scheme or he has limitations in that area, but if he is getting subbed out... I don't think he has the upside Dobbins did/does.
Deamon
Footballguy
Wow.
Ya lots of ppl split on this. I can't justify him at the 3.04 spot tonight. Hoping for 4.09.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
In my mind.....he just assumed whatever rushes attempts you were giving Dobbins....plus keeping a majority of what he would have gotten on his own pre Dobbins injury....think the team has confidence in him and just signed him to a $10 mil contract, so he was already in the plans to receive touches...not sure about the level of confidence in the guys behind him....maybe that remains to be seen....but he will probably get all the work he can handle....and then some....yeah it might suck if he comes out on third down, but not sure that is "for sure" going to happen all the time....they will probably want to keep him somewhat fresh when they can.....but I see him getting the majority of the meaningful snaps....
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