RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

How many points do you get for "near 40 yard TD receptions"?

Asking for a hot sauce friend.

 

[creepythinman]

Perrine is a soon to be 29 years old journeyman. I guess I'm in denial but I'm not worried about Perrine having a significant impact on Pacheco's numbers at all.

He took a significant amount last night. Or did you think Pacheco was better off without that catch & run, or the near 40 yard TD reception target?

And Perrine only came in that drive because Pacheco was throwing up on the sideline. Loved the RB screen game for KC. Perrine was cut by a RB greedy Sean Payton and is just a body whose best asset is pass blocking.

 

[travdogg]

Guess now maybe we can stop the hand wringing about whether the UDFA rookie or an 8th year JAG are going to kill his value.

Pacheco woulda had a better game if he’d had the nice reception Perine did. And Perine damn near had a 40 yard TD as well.

Any touches not going to Pacheco hurt his value a little, unfortunately.

Perine was a perfect pickup for the Chiefs. While bad for Pacheco, it's good for the team.

Right and Perine just got into town, his role is only going to increase, even if he had the bad drop.

It’s mystifying that people are in denial about this.

Perrine is a soon to be 29 years old journeyman. I guess I'm in denial but I'm not worried about Perrine having a significant impact on Pacheco's numbers at all.

I really don't get it at all. Perine will take some work, every RB loses some work. Perine is zero threat to take the job, and unlikely to see as much work as McKinnon, or see the same value of touches McKinnon did, as KC was desperate for a pass catcher then, which they are far from now.

Pacheco is a low-end RB1, Perine is like an RB6, who probably doesn't need to be on rosters in most leagues. Perine is a threat to Pacheco the same way Gainwell is a threat to Barkley, which is not at all, just a guy getting a few snaps here and there. Pacheco saw 18 of 22 RB carries/targets. That's who he is gonna be as long as he stays healthy. Other than maybe Jonathan Taylor, I'm not sure there is a RB with a bigger touch monopoly than Pacheco right now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How many points do you get for "near 40 yard TD receptions"?

Asking for a hot sauce friend.

Woulda been 11 in full PPR had there been a little more touch on the throw to a wide open Perine.

The point is that it wasn’t Pacheco out there being targeted on that play, and in the preseason the assumption was that it would be.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Perine is zero threat to take the job

Hello straw man my old friend
It’s good to see you once again


No one ever said he would. But he’s very much a threat to take quite a few receptions from Pacheco.

Pretending otherwise seems ostrich-like.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Pacheco saw 18 of 22 RB carries/targets. That's who he is gonna be as long as he stays healthy. Other than maybe Jonathan Taylor, I'm not sure there is a RB with a bigger touch monopoly than Pacheco right now.

It’s 1 game, and it seems reasonable to assume Perine doesn’t have the full playbook in his head yet, nor full trust of the coaches - he was a late signing.

Let’s revisit this in week 6 and see how it’s going. I expect perine’s role to expand. What might that do to Pacheco’s role? It’s just math.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Perrine was cut by a RB greedy Sean Payton and is just a body whose best asset is pass blocking.

He’s literally a receiving specialist. It was widely reported that “KC signs receiving specialist Perine” when he signed.

They did not sign him exclusively to pass block. lol

 

[creepythinman]

Perrine was cut by a RB greedy Sean Payton and is just a body whose best asset is pass blocking.

He’s literally a receiving specialist. It was widely reported that “KC signs receiving specialist Perine” when he signed.

They did not sign him exclusively to pass block. lol

Pass blocking is what Perine does best (#4 PFF graded blocking RB).

As a receiving back, he's fine/dependable. But he's not an explosive weapon out of the backfield that can take a screen 75 yards. He's a 4.65 40 at the combine running back who will catch most of the balls thrown his way and block on 3rd down. Andy Reid isn't up at night dreaming of ways to scheme the ball into Perine's hands.

 

[1320kid]

FWIW he worked extensively on his pass catching game this offseason.

Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco is ready to become one of the NFL’s ‘weapons’

The Kansas City running back has put in serious work to be a better pass-catcher — but will he get the work?

www.arrowheadpride.com

 

[menobrown]

Perrine was cut by a RB greedy Sean Payton and is just a body whose best asset is pass blocking.

He’s literally a receiving specialist. It was widely reported that “KC signs receiving specialist Perine” when he signed.

They did not sign him exclusively to pass block. lol

Pass blocking is what Perine does best (#4 PFF graded blocking RB).

As a receiving back, he's fine/dependable. But he's not an explosive weapon out of the backfield that can take a screen 75 yards. He's a 4.65 40 at the combine running back who will catch most of the balls thrown his way and block on 3rd down. Andy Reid isn't up at night dreaming of ways to scheme the ball into Perine's hands.

He's still a receiving specialist who dominated third down and hurry up snaps in Denver last year and will on this team once he acclimates himself.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Andy Reid isn't up at night dreaming of ways to scheme the ball into Perine's hands.

Look at McKinnon’s stats the last few years.

That’s what the cap to Pacheco’s ceiling is compared to before the Perine signing.

That’s the point. It’s my only point. It’s enough that in the FBG Bowl league I wish I’d taken Jacobs over Pacheco. It’s not a ton. But it’s enough that in PPR formats it hurts.

Not saying Pacheco is a RB3 now, or that Perine is any threat to become a RB1. Those are the slippery-slope arguments of logical fallacy.

Pacheco will still be a low-end RB1, and Perine will still be unrosterable in all but the deepest leagues (he’s owned in both my 16 team 50 man roster dynasty leagues) or Best Ball.

I’m merely saying that if Perine carves out a role with ~40 receptions this year, which seems like a pretty reasonable number, that’s 40+ points Pacheco can’t get. That’s my only point here. And it seems pretty reasonable to assert.

You’re welcome to disagree.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He's still a receiving specialist who dominated third down and hurry up snaps in Denver last year and will on this team once he acclimates himself.

And this is the key, and what absolutely caps Pacheco’s ceiling.

I was 100% ready to draft Pacheco as my 2nd round RB1 in an NFFC ROC league the day the signing news broke. I picked ETN instead and would have taken a WR had ETN not made it to me.

It’s a small difference. But it matters.

 

[Anarchy99]

Perine is zero threat to take the job

Hello straw man my old friend
It’s good to see you once again


No one ever said he would. But he’s very much a threat to take quite a few receptions from Pacheco.

Pretending otherwise seems ostrich-like.

You're right, I guess. Sort of. Maybe.

The way RBs are used these days, there are very few three down, bell cow, barely-come-off-the-field-unless-a-bone-is-sticking-out backs anymore. Since Mahomes came into the league, the Chiefs RBs have averaged 89 receptions a year. Pacheco was never getting 80 of those, especially if he gets 15+ carries.

While you aren't wrong, Perine will get some catches. But IMO, those receptions were never going to Pacheco anyway. If you want them to go to Perine, so be it. Each year, they have someone like McKinnon, CEH, Darrel Williams, or his brother from another mother, Damien Williams. Pacheco was never slated / expected / projected to turn into a 300-carry / 80-reception guy. My point is, if not Perine, they would just use someone else or a collective of other backs to give Pacheco some rest in game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The way RBs are used these days, there are very few three down, bell cow, barely-come-off-the-field-unless-a-bone-is-sticking-out backs anymore. Since Mahomes came into the league, the Chiefs RBs have averaged 89 receptions a year. Pacheco was never getting 80 of those, especially if he gets 15+ carries.

Yet up until a week before training camp ended, that was the prevailing wisdom in FF circles. The chiefs only have Pacheco and Steele. Pacheco = bell cow.

That’s clearly changed with the Perine signing.

100% of my point right there. No panic, no sky is falling. Just the absolute fact that for about a 3 week period there was growing confidence that Pacheco was going to be that 3-down bellcow guy, a rare enough thing as you say, that I, and others started to buy into it.

Pretending the Perine signing wasn’t impactful to that seems foolish.

ETA: looked at my draft boards from NFFC. Perine was an early 3rd, then pushed to the 2nd, then 3 days before the singing was taken at the 1-2 turn, then after the Perine singing he was back to an early 3rd.

The FF community clearly built him up, and then reacted to the Perine singing.

 

[Anarchy99]

The way RBs are used these days, there are very few three down, bell cow, barely-come-off-the-field-unless-a-bone-is-sticking-out backs anymore. Since Mahomes came into the league, the Chiefs RBs have averaged 89 receptions a year. Pacheco was never getting 80 of those, especially if he gets 15+ carries.

Yet up until a week before training camp ended, that was the prevailing wisdom in FF circles. The chiefs only have Pacheco and Steele. Pacheco = bell cow.

That’s clearly changed with the Perine signing.

100% of my point right there. No panic, no sky is falling. Just the absolute fact that for about a 3 week period there was growing confidence that Pacheco was going to be that 3-down bellcow guy, a rare enough thing as you say, that I, and others started to buy into it.

Pretending the Perine signing wasn’t impactful to that seems foolish.

ETA: looked at my draft boards from NFFC. Perine was an early 3rd, then pushed to the 2nd, then 3 days before the singing was taken at the 1-2 turn, then after the Perine singing he was back to an early 3rd.

The FF community clearly built him up, and then reacted to the Perine singing.

With or without Perrine, Pacheco could still do fine with the same workload and production level as last year. He finished RB15 missing 3 games. Had he played every game at the same efficiency, he would have ended the year as RB7 and a TD away from being RB5. His ADP has been RB11. Not sure there were inflated hopes, dreams, expectations, or aspirations based solely on a much bigger workload or target share reflected in that ADP. If I were drafting now, I wouldn't take him any later or worry about Perrine being added. Put another way, I only care that my guy gets his touches, so whatever Perrine can carve out, good for him. As of now, I am not that concerned. I actually think Pacheco could end up with a few more catches than last year (to get to 50 receptions). IMO, people that were ready to anoint him as a 350-touch guy really haven't been paying attention. If he plays every game, his workload will likely end up in the 275-300 range. I don't think Perrine changes that, but we won't know for months.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

With or without Perrine, Pacheco could still do fine with the same workload and production level as last year. He finished RB15 missing 3 games. Had he played every game at the same efficiency, he would have ended the year as RB7 and a TD away from being RB5

Not saying he can’t.

I’m saying there was hope he could be more prior to the Perine signing.

That hope has been dashed to a point.

 

[Chaka]

How many points do you get for "near 40 yard TD receptions"?

Asking for a hot sauce friend.

Woulda been 11 in full PPR had there been a little more touch on the throw to a wide open Perine.

The point is that it wasn’t Pacheco out there being targeted on that play, and in the preseason the assumption was that it would be.

Ya, Mahomes sucks.

I updated our league scoring to add "woulda points" going forward should add a little spice to the season.

 

[Anarchy99]

Not saying he can’t.

I’m saying there was hope he could be more prior to the Perine signing.

That hope has been dashed to a point.

Realistically, fantasy owners of any RB can only hope for a ceiling of 300 touches in a season. Anything above that is gravy. IMO, even if there was some MCU multiverse scenario where Pacheco averaged 22 or 23 touches a game, he would have a much greater chance of getting hurt and missing time (meaning he wasn't going to get 350+ touches regardless).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not saying he can’t.

I’m saying there was hope he could be more prior to the Perine signing.

That hope has been dashed to a point.

Realistically, fantasy owners of any RB can only hope for a ceiling of 300 touches in a season. Anything above that is gravy. IMO, even if there was some MCU multiverse scenario where Pacheco averaged 22 or 23 touches a game, he would have a much greater chance of getting hurt and missing time (meaning he wasn't going to get 350+ touches regardless).

That’s fair.

But it’s also fair to say that the optimism for Pacheco’s ceiling was tempered by the Pacheco signing.

I don’t see why that’s such a hard statement for people to embrace. It’s like saying the sun isn’t hot or children don’t love ice cream.

 

[Chaka]

The point is that it wasn’t Pacheco out there being targeted on that play, and in the preseason the assumption was that it would be.

You're reaching a little on that one. No one suggested Pacheco would receive 100% of the opportunities.

Pacheco 43 snaps, 80% snap share, 18 RB opportunities (82%), 15 rush, 3 targets.
Perine 15 snaps, 15% snap share, 2 RB opportunities (1%), 0 rush, 2 targets.
Steele 5 snaps, 9% snap share, 2 RB opportunities (1%), 2 rush, 0 targets.

I think we should wait until Pacheco's snap share and RB opportunity share drops below 65% before we start spiking the ball on Perine.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I

I updated our league scoring to add "woulda points" going forward should add a little spice to the season.

It’s a good schtick. Kudos.

Perhaps with the 1st game of the season out of the way, some of those future targets will be caught. Then there will be more legitimate points Perine takes from Pacheco and we can revisit.

But it is a good schtick.

 

[rodalive]

Perine is zero threat to take the job

Hello straw man my old friend
It’s good to see you once again


No one ever said he would. But he’s very much a threat to take quite a few receptions from Pacheco.

Pretending otherwise seems ostrich-like.

You're right, I guess. Sort of. Maybe.

The way RBs are used these days, there are very few three down, bell cow, barely-come-off-the-field-unless-a-bone-is-sticking-out backs anymore. Since Mahomes came into the league, the Chiefs RBs have averaged 89 receptions a year. Pacheco was never getting 80 of those, especially if he gets 15+ carries.

While you aren't wrong, Perine will get some catches. But IMO, those receptions were never going to Pacheco anyway. If you want them to go to Perine, so be it. Each year, they have someone like McKinnon, CEH, Darrel Williams, or his brother from another mother, Damien Williams. Pacheco was never slated / expected / projected to turn into a 300-carry / 80-reception guy. My point is, if not Perine, they would just use someone else or a collective of other backs to give Pacheco some rest in game.

Perfectly explained, arguing against this is silly.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

think we should wait until Pacheco's snap share and RB opportunity share drops below 65% before we start spiking the ball on Perine.

No one is spiking a ball on Perine. At all. Ever. Certainly not me.

That’s misdirection, and it’s disingenuous. I literally just said that Perine is not rosterable outside BB or deep roster formats.

But it is a fact that Perine is getting valuable targets/receptions.

Pretending that won’t impact Pacheco’s ceiling is bizarre.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

 

[Chaka]

Look at McKinnon’s stats the last few years.

The McKinnon narrative is a red herring. He outsnapped Pacheco the 7th round rookie two years ago (535-351), but didn't out touch him (183-128). That's a big nothing burger.
Last year Pacheco outsnapped McKinnon 568-264 and their touches were 249-46. That isn't even a stale dill pickle on top of a nothingburger.

 

[Chaka]

think we should wait until Pacheco's snap share and RB opportunity share drops below 65% before we start spiking the ball on Perine.

No one is spiking a ball on Perone. At all. Ever. Certainly not me.

That’s misdirectionx and it’s disingenuous. I literally just said that Perine is not rosterable outside BB or deep roster formats.

But it is a fact that Perine is getting valuable targets/receptions.

Pretending that won’t impact Pacheco’s ceiling is bizarre.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Dude, he got two targets. Talk about disingenuous. We would all lover to see our RB1 get 100% of the opportunities but none of us is stupid enough (yes stupid) to believe it would ever even come close to happening.

You're playing up a narrative as a looming fact when it's barely a nascent thought.

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but didn't out touch him

No one, certainly not me, ever claimed he did, or was remotely a threat to. Weird.

 

[menobrown]

Look at McKinnon’s stats the last few years.

The McKinnon narrative is a red herring. He outsnapped Pacheco the 7th round rookie two years ago (535-351), but didn't out touch him (183-128). That's a big nothing burger.
Last year Pacheco outsnapped McKinnon 568-264 and their touches were 249-46. That isn't even a stale dill pickle on top of a nothingburger.

Feel like two convo's are taking place here.

The value of Perine individually and the impact he has on Pachecho's.

I don't care about Perine's value. Own him a lot, but he's not worth discussing for his own value. He's a handcuff who might offer weak/desperate flex appeal.

But despite that snap count McKinnon had a massive impact on Pachecho's fantasy performance. You can chalk it up to luck, random TD variance or whatever but he played 10 games with JMC last year and was RB25 in PPR PPG. He broke past 16 points once. He played 4 games with JMC, went off in 3 of them and in those 4 games posted his best, second best and 4th best fantasy week of the season.

These things happen even when a RB is not gobbling up touches on their own merit. I think back to 2017 and the Saints. First 4 games of the season they are running a 3 man RBBC with Ingram, AK and Adrian Peterson. Neither AK or ADP were getting a lot of use. Peterson those first 3 weeks averaged only 13 snaps a game, a hair under 9 total touches. Those 3 weeks Kamara was getting 21 snaps a game and was unplayable, failing to break double digits. They started changing things in week 4 and then after week 4 they got rid of Peterson.Kamara's snap count went from 21 a game to 31 a game, not seismic change but he absolutely went nuts from that point forward. Again people can chalk that up to luck or random variance but the presence of ADP eating up his 13 snaps and 9 touches seemed to disrupt Kamara's flow.

I am of the belief that Perince will have the same impact to Pachecho that McKinnon had. Feel pretty strong about it in fact, and that is he himself won't have a ton of use, but it's going to heavily dent Pachecho.

 

[1320kid]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Reasonable for sure. He needs a breather, or to yak every now and then apparently, so Perine taking ~3ish catches a game can happen. 17 weeks, 3 catches a game on average, 50ish points. That is a swing from say 225 season points to 275 (no accounting for YAC either just pure 1 point per catch), RB1 low to RB1 high.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

You mean to tell me that Pacheeco won't get 100% of the carries and receptions?

 

[Chaka]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

 

[creepythinman]

I’m merely saying that if Perine carves out a role with ~40 receptions this year, which seems like a pretty reasonable number, that’s 40+ points Pacheco can’t get. That’s my only point here. And it seems pretty reasonable to assert.

You’re welcome to disagree.

Reasonable. But I would say that would've been the case even if Perine hadn't been released after being beaten out by McLaughlin and Estime and signed with KC. It's not reasonable to say any RB will see 100% of the snaps and handle 100% of the RB touches. Or even 85%. But last year, in the 14 games Pacheco was active, KC had 875 offensive snaps not counting sacks (either there was a completed pass attempt or rushing attempt) at 62.5 snaps/game and Pacheco was on the field for 568 of them for a 65% snap share. He had a 44% Touch % out of those 568 snaps resulting in 249 total touches in the regular season, averaging 17.8 touches per game.

The elite touches/game number we're looking for is over 19.5 touches/game. If Pacheco gets to 19.5 touches/game, I expect him to be in the top half of RB1s. Last year, only Kyren, CMC, Jacobs, Barkley, White and Kamara had more than 19.5 touches/game, with Kyren leading the way with 21.7 touches/game. For Pacheco to reach elite status, he just needs to increase his per game touches by 1.7.

For Pacheco to get to 19.5 touches/game, he needs to either: (1) increase his snap share; or (2) increase his Touch %. If his 44% Touch % doesn't change, Pacheco just needs to increase his snap share from 65% to 71% (an extra 3.7 snaps/game). If his snap share doesn't increase, Pacheco needs to increase his Touch % to 60% (last year Tyler Allgeier (!) and Derrick Henry had the highest Touch % last year at 57% and 56%).

What's going to happen is that Pacheco will see the large majority of the offensive snaps with his Touch % remaining around the 44% he was last year. Pacheco will play be on the field for KC more than 65% of the time when healthy. In the 2023 playoffs, Pacheco played 213 of the total 269 offensive snaps for KC at a 79% snap share, with a healthy McKinnon and CEH on the roster. His Touch % for playoffs was 44%. This was increase was predicted by the way Pacheco ended the 2023 regualar season. In his first 8 games, Pacheco averaged a 57% snap share. In his final 6 games, Pacheco averaged a 76% snap share including a ridiculous 98% snap share in the final game where the starters played vs. Cincinnati in Week 17.

Last night, Pacheco had an 80% snap share.

Maybe, the combination of Samaje Perine and Carson Steele is so much better than the combination of CEH and McKinnon that they are able to keep Pacheco off the field for more than 29% of the offensive snaps when healthy.

Or more likely, KC will keep using Pacheco exactly how they've been using Pacheco in the last 11 games he's been active which is: a 78% snap share, a 43% Touch %, and 20.6 touches/game. At the 0.86 fantasy points per touch Pacheco averaged last year in PPR, that projects to 17.7 FPTS/game which would put him as RB5 overall in PPR last season.

 

[jm192]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Reasonable for sure. He needs a breather, or to yak every now and then apparently, so Perine taking ~3ish catches a game can happen. 17 weeks, 3 catches a game on average, 50ish points. That is a swing from say 225 season points to 275 (no accounting for YAC either just pure 1 point per catch), RB1 low to RB1 high.

Exactly.

 

[rodalive]

Look at McKinnon’s stats the last few years.

The McKinnon narrative is a red herring. He outsnapped Pacheco the 7th round rookie two years ago (535-351), but didn't out touch him (183-128). That's a big nothing burger.
Last year Pacheco outsnapped McKinnon 568-264 and their touches were 249-46. That isn't even a stale dill pickle on top of a nothingburger.

Feel like two convo's are taking place here.

The value of Perine individually and the impact he has on Pachecho's.

I don't care about Perine's value. Own him a lot, but he's not worth discussing for his own value. He's a handcuff who might offer weak/desperate flex appeal.

But despite that snap count McKinnon had a massive impact on Pachecho's fantasy performance. You can chalk it up to luck, random TD variance or whatever but he played 10 games with JMC last year and was RB25 in PPR PPG. He broke past 16 points once. He played 4 games with JMC, went off in 3 of them and in those 4 games posted his best, second best and 4th best fantasy week of the season.

These things happen even when a RB is not gobbling up touches on their own merit. I think back to 2017 and the Saints. First 4 games of the season they are running a 3 man RBBC with Ingram, AK and Adrian Peterson. Neither AK or ADP were getting a lot of use. Peterson those first 3 weeks averaged only 13 snaps a game, a hair under 9 total touches. Those 3 weeks Kamara was getting 21 snaps a game and was unplayable, failing to break double digits. They started changing things in week 4 and then after week 4 they got rid of Peterson.Kamara's snap count went from 21 a game to 31 a game, not seismic change but he absolutely went nuts from that point forward. Again people can chalk that up to luck or random variance but the presence of ADP eating up his 13 snaps and 9 touches seemed to disrupt Kamara's flow.

I am of the belief that Perince will have the same impact to Pachecho that McKinnon had. Feel pretty strong about it in fact, and that is he himself won't have a ton of use, but it's going to heavily dent Pachecho.

We understand your view.

 

[rodalive]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

He didn't call anyone stupid, maybe you need to chill out

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You mean to tell me that Pacheeco won't get 100% of the carries and receptions?

Prior to the Perine signing it sure looked like he’d get close to that.

Many a fantasy write opined that he would be one of the few true bellcow RBs and using the lack of a receiving option on the team in part to justify that.

Again, you’re using a straw man fallacy, because I never claimed Pacheco would get 100% of anything, but you can go on and argue with yourself about that if it brings you joy.

 

[jm192]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

He didn't call anyone stupid, maybe you need to chill out

Exact quote:

Dude, he got two targets. Talk about disingenuous. We would all lover to see our RB1 get 100% of the opportunities but none of us is stupid enough (yes stupid) to believe it would ever even come close to happening.

He didn't say "You're stupid." He said it would be stupid to believe what you seem to believe. Which is a rather back handed way of calling someone stupid.

 

[rodalive]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

He didn't call anyone stupid, maybe you need to chill out

Exact quote:

Dude, he got two targets. Talk about disingenuous. We would all lover to see our RB1 get 100% of the opportunities but none of us is stupid enough (yes stupid) to believe it would ever even come close to happening.

He didn't say "You're stupid." He said it would be stupid to believe what you seem to believe. Which is a rather back handed way of calling someone stupid.

LOL, really?

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I was just messing around and joking, man.

 

[rodalive]

This thread has become ridiculous, I'll head somewhere else

 

[Anarchy99]

But despite that snap count McKinnon had a massive impact on Pachecho's fantasy performance. You can chalk it up to luck, random TD variance or whatever but he played 10 games with JMC last year and was RB25 in PPR PPG. He broke past 16 points once. He played 4 games with JMC, went off in 3 of them and in those 4 games posted his best, second best and 4th best fantasy week of the season.

I still can't for the life of me see how one thing has anything to do with the other. At times, certain stats can be both true and almost entirely unrelated. We went through this earlier in the week. McKinnon only saw 2.9 touches a game when he played with Pacheco. If those touches didn't go to McKinnon, they would have gone to some other KC back.

Based on game conditions, Pacheco saw his workload increase from 15.3 touches to 20.5 touches when McKinnon was out. That increase was almost twice the touches as McKinnon would get in a game. Pacheco happened to score 5 TD in those games. Put another way, Kadarius Toney missed two games last year. In those games, Pacheco had 123 YFS and 1 TD and 165 YFS and 1 TD. Based on that, did Toney play a big role in holding back Pacheco last year when he did play? The 58 touches Toney had could have gone to Pacheco. Essentially, any play that a player didn't get on any team at any position is one that "could" have gone to a player.

 

[jm192]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

He didn't call anyone stupid, maybe you need to chill out

Exact quote:

Dude, he got two targets. Talk about disingenuous. We would all lover to see our RB1 get 100% of the opportunities but none of us is stupid enough (yes stupid) to believe it would ever even come close to happening.

He didn't say "You're stupid." He said it would be stupid to believe what you seem to believe. Which is a rather back handed way of calling someone stupid.

LOL, really?

Yeah. given the context, seems pretty straight forward.

 

[Chaka]

Look at McKinnon’s stats the last few years.

The McKinnon narrative is a red herring. He outsnapped Pacheco the 7th round rookie two years ago (535-351), but didn't out touch him (183-128). That's a big nothing burger.
Last year Pacheco outsnapped McKinnon 568-264 and their touches were 249-46. That isn't even a stale dill pickle on top of a nothingburger.

Feel like two convo's are taking place here.

The value of Perine individually and the impact he has on Pachecho's.

I don't care about Perine's value. Own him a lot, but he's not worth discussing for his own value. He's a handcuff who might offer weak/desperate flex appeal.

But despite that snap count McKinnon had a massive impact on Pachecho's fantasy performance. You can chalk it up to luck, random TD variance or whatever but he played 10 games with JMC last year and was RB25 in PPR PPG. He broke past 16 points once. He played 4 games with JMC, went off in 3 of them and in those 4 games posted his best, second best and 4th best fantasy week of the season.

These things happen even when a RB is not gobbling up touches on their own merit. I think back to 2017 and the Saints. First 4 games of the season they are running a 3 man RBBC with Ingram, AK and Adrian Peterson. Neither AK or ADP were getting a lot of use. Peterson those first 3 weeks averaged only 13 snaps a game, a hair under 9 total touches. Those 3 weeks Kamara was getting 21 snaps a game and was unplayable, failing to break double digits. They started changing things in week 4 and then after week 4 they got rid of Peterson.Kamara's snap count went from 21 a game to 31 a game, not seismic change but he absolutely went nuts from that point forward. Again people can chalk that up to luck or random variance but the presence of ADP eating up his 13 snaps and 9 touches seemed to disrupt Kamara's flow.

I am of the belief that Perince will have the same impact to Pachecho that McKinnon had. Feel pretty strong about it in fact, and that is he himself won't have a ton of use, but it's going to heavily dent Pachecho.

Appreciate the response. I chalk up the majority of 2022 to Pacheco being a 7th round rookie, plain and simple.

For 2024 the discussion has always been round Pacheco's value as I don't perceive Perine to have anything other than "My season is over so, why not?"

And the question really isn't if Perine is going to get 3-5 receptions/game (and how that will impact Pacheco) the question is how much different is Perine's share going to be than above replacement? Perine wouldn't be a Chief if CEH wasn't dealing with mental health issues, IMO Pacheco's value always reflected that another back was going to see a share of the RB production.

So, how much more is Perine going to eat into that value than we thought CEH would?

IMO it's a push at worst.

 

[Chaka]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

CEH was always there. Fantasy players don't like him but the Chiefs do and always have.

How much better is Perine than CEH? I say not at all.

 

[Chaka]

Reasonable for sure. He needs a breather, or to yak every now and then apparently, so Perine taking ~3ish catches a game can happen. 17 weeks, 3 catches a game on average, 50ish points. That is a swing from say 225 season points to 275 (no accounting for YAC either just pure 1 point per catch), RB1 low to RB1 high.

Exactly.

Exactly not. Pacheco was never going to see those touches, CEH was.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

CEH was always there. Fantasy players don't like him but the Chiefs do and always have.

How much better is Perine than CEH? I say not at all.

Actually at the point I was referring to (a few days before Perine signed) reports were that CEH was going to be absent due to some stress-related issues. So no, he wasn’t “always there”. He was notably absent. That’s false.

 

[Chaka]

What do you see the opportunity share being by week eight? 50-50 or closer to 65-35?

Never said anything remotely like either.

I’ve said something like “3-5 targets/receptions per week”

And if that happens, it’s 3-5 targets/receptions that for a fleeting moment I expected Pacheco to get.

Why railing against that is a hill so many here want to die on is baffling.

Why would you have ever expected that?

There wasn't another competent RB on the roster. Before Perine was signed, I believed it. A lot of people believed it.

Now Perine is signed. It won't happen.

But before Perine, do you think someone else was getting significant touches in that backfield? That's ridiculous.

I don't get why you're being so high and mighty and saying people stupid. Take a step back and chill out.

He didn't call anyone stupid, maybe you need to chill out

Thank you, I didn't but totally understand why it could be interpreted that way. But I should amend that: IMO believing any RB would see a 100% share is magical thinking.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Exactly not. Pacheco was never going to see those touches, CEH was.

No, he was already absent at that point.

It was only recently revealed why, but he was a non-factor.

 

[Chaka]

CEH was always there. Fantasy players don't like him but the Chiefs do and always have.

How much better is Perine than CEH? I say not at all.

Actually at the point I was referring to (a few days before Perine signed) reports were that CEH was going to be absent due to some stress-related issues. So no, he wasn’t “always there”. He was notably absent. That’s false.

You're telling me that as soon as news broke that he may miss time you didn't consider the Chiefs would sign another RB?