Rookiefever
Footballguy
I think the OC just might be too smart to play the same ole’ traditional GL back in the redzone all the time.
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
Dan Campbell is very much a "make 'em stop us." kind of guy. It worked out pretty well last year and I expect to see a lot of it again this year. Particularly with their offensive line.
Chaka
Footballguy
Looks like 14:7 rush
ass TD ratio inside the 2 and 11:4 from the 1. 13 of those were Jamaal Williams.Of course another way to view that from the 2 yard line the ratio drops to 3:3
Brad had at least two GMs text him saying Gibbs would not have made it to 18.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
That certainly changes everything
It does. It shows Brad had a much better grasp of where teams valued players than the TV talking heads. Gibbs will be top 3 in offensive rookie of the year.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Huge Gibbs fan. Text messages mean absolutely nothing.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Distracted by the doctor treating the dislocation appendage.
Sam Laporta
Ilov80s
Footballguy
They did but they brought in Montgomery who is at worst an equal replacement to Williams.
rockaction
Footballguy
Every team needs a thumper.
Gibbs will be an interesting study. Did the Lions use the first on a luxury pick, or are they planning a significant amount of the offense around him? That's the million dollar question and the signs seem to point to the latter.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Oh yeah, Monty and Gibbs is a nice natural pairing. It does seem the Lions want Gibbs as a weapon more than a RB. They said multiple times in the draft room that "he plays like a receiver". Can they figure out a way to make this work? I hope so because it would be fun for fantasy and for my Lions.
1. Bijon
2. Brad does a good job of reading the other teams and having a good idea of where people are going to fall to. The Witherspoon pick seems like one of the few times that he's really been surprised by someone he wanted being sniped in front of him
Dez
Footballguy
Their war room looked like my room back in 2003 when I was doing my first ever high stakes draft my first ever PPR Draft in a world of everyone takes RBs early and often (Only 4 WR's went in the top 27 picks of this draft) and my friend and I were waiting with baited breath when the 2.04 pick came down "William Green" and we were fist pumping, high fiving and I started running around the sound yelling "WE GOT RANDY MOSS" for a bit before actually making the selection. Started that year WR-WR-WR-WR in a world where that was not done back then was called dead money on the message board and what was I smoking after the draft. Nearly won it all that year led the championship round for 3 weeks and 6 days and 3 and half quarters. Brutal ending but a great great ride.
All because we got Randy Moss at the 2.05 just like Detroit got Gibbs at the 1.12. Sure brought back memories.
They clearly really love this guy.
Chaka
Footballguy
Pretty much this.
Although I guess I could see Gibbs finishing with a better PPR season than Montgomery if his efficiency is high.
With this offensive line and the Lions ability to put a lot of pressure on defenses from all angles Gibbs should see more open field opportunities than, say a guy like Bijan* in Atlanta. If Gibbs is just a hair faster and has just a hair more twitchiness than Swift he could have a very nice season even on more limited opportunities.
*Bijan is almost a lock for a top 10 finish because he should see 300+ touches. But he's going to have a whole lot more defenders in his face than Gibbs. He'll get his numbers but, with an average offensive line, unproven QB and still mostly unproven support in London & Pitts I wouldn't be surprised if Bijan has something closer to a Trent Richardson rookie year not an Ezekiel Elliott rookie year.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
There's no way to tell, could be editing. Bijan Robinson was still available at 6. Maybe they were comfortable with either guy at 12. Tough to say. But they did seem really excited when Skoronski got picked, so maybe Gibbs was their guy.
I do love the behind the scenes stuff though, it's awesome to watch.
I don’t typically like to get ahead of my skis with rookies but in Gibb’s case I’m completely buying the hype.
I think he eclipses 60 receptions and I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see him hit 85.
I’ll give him somewhere between 700-850 on the ground.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I thought Detroit was one of the better teams Philly played last season. They would have been a much tougher out in the playoffs than TB, MIN or NYG. I'm going to watch as many Lions games as I can this year.
Rookiefever
Footballguy
The goal line stats are nice and all but the redzone is from the 20. Also, I don’t think anyone will repeat jamaals year for a long while. It truly was unique. Anyone who is expecting Montgomery to do that is very very optimistic. This is going to be a fun year for the lions. Potentially startable ff players of Goff 2 wrs, 2 rbs and even possibly a te. Crazy to think it!Looks like 14:7 rush
Of course another way to view that from the 2 yard line the ratio drops to 3:3
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't expect Montgomery to repeat Jamaal's year for short yardage TDs. No one should.The goal line stats are nice and all but the redzone is from the 20. Also, I don’t think anyone will repeat jamaals year for a long while. It truly was unique. Anyone who is expecting Montgomery to do that is very very optimistic. This is going to be a fun year for the lions. Potentially startable ff players of Goff 2 wrs, 2 rbs and even possibly a te. Crazy to think it!Looks like 14:7 rush
Of course another way to view that from the 2 yard line the ratio drops to 3:3
I expect the Lions to continue their strategy of forcing opponents to stop them pounding the ball from short yardage.
It's important to recognize when the Lions failed to get a TD inside the one it didn't lead to an uptick in TDs for the other RBs, the receivers were the beneficiaries.
We can hope Gibbs is some kind of revelation in the receiving game ala Marshall Faulk but, that's an insane bar to reach and D'Andre Swift was no slouch in the passing game and in 14 games he got 169 opportunities.
massraider
Footballguy
Can you come up with that many RBs you like in front of him?
I agree with every question about him, but if he is a compiler as a pass catcher, he might be top 12-14 this season.
The RB fantasy landscape is just that bad this year. A lot of fluid situations, and free agents still lurking around, ready to tear out the heart of Rhamondre or Breece owners.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Middle of the 6th Rd
Monty is his competition?
I'll take my chances
Great RB2 prospect that could seize the controls quickly
Monty is his competition?
I'll take my chances
Great RB2 prospect that could seize the controls quickly
I doubt he makes it to the 6th round. In best ball he goes in the 3rd round every time, maybe early 4th at latest. I know because I target him in every draft lol
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
3rd Rd still sounds good
This guy is set to ball in Detroit
Maybe I'll get lucky and snare him in the 4th
Yea agreed. I am taking him all day in that offense, with that offensive line, with a QB who loves to throw to his backs, and with that skillset.3rd Rd still sounds good
This guy is set to ball in Detroit
Maybe I'll get lucky and snare him in the 4th
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yeah, I expect a lot of 2 back sets this year. Not like they have 3 WRs right now that must stay on the field.
I loved him in best ball drafts 2 months ago, when he was going 20+ RBs in. He's harder to get behind when he's going around the same area as Breece Hall or non-RBs like Lamar or Deebo.
I've got Gibbs RB15, but I'm not spending a late 3rd or early 4th on him. Like the player, not the ADP.
ETA: Kinda getting a bit of a worrying feeling about the Lions offense in general. Like a 2022 might be more the peak than the expectation. I'm worried nobody really returns value at ADP in the offense.
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Out of curiosity what’s your biggest concern with the Lions offensive players not delivering at ADP? Goff regression? Defense better? Too many mouths to feed?
Goff regression is a part of it, also (and this is an unscientific reason) weight of expectations.
Right now current positional ADP's are:
Goff-QB17
Gibbs-RB12
Monty-RB23
Amon-Ra-WR9
Williams-WR50
LaPorta-TE18
While I've got:
Goff-QB18
Gibbs-RB15
Monty-RB25
Amon-Ra-WR8
Williams-WR44
LaPorta-TE20
So, its not like I hate the offense, I just am not really seeing it being a great offense and am expecting regression. While it might individually be a good move at each spot, I think replacing every skill position player from a year ago other than Goff/St. Brown could absolutely lead to a slower start as well.
Perhaps a bold call, but I also wonder if Dan Campbell is a lot more on the hot seat than people think. Everyone loves him right now, but if they start slow, and aren't looking like they are building on last year. I can see some real questions being asked, even more so if the issues aren't on Goff/offense, where the question may become whether or not Johnson should be the HC so as not to lose him.
Side note, I think the following HC's are on hotter seats than people think:
Arthur Smith (3 straight top-8 picks on skill guys, but QB could sink them all, division is there for the taking)
Kevin Stefanski (Watson needs to rebound big)
Dan Campbell (what if the late season run was a mirage, and GB/Chi aren't the pushovers some expect)
Robert Saleh (if Rodgers isn't the missing piece a new HC is the next logical assumption)
Ron Rivera (he's widely thought of as on the hot seat, I'm questioning if he makes it through the season)
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I dared to float in the St. Brown thread that he might be due for a 10% target decrease and got lambasted for the suggestion. Meanwhile the same folks are all hyped up in the Gibbs and LaPorta threads. Something’s gotta give and especially when you consider the team will be better in general, with at least a slightly improved defense and playing with more leads.
I do like Gibbs at ADP though.
Chaka
Footballguy
Pointing out that there are roughly 280 open targets to be distributed to some combination of Gibbs, LaPorta, Reynolds, Raymond, Jones III & Mims before anyone should be concerned about eating into ARSB's share isn't a "lambasting".
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Marvin Jones III is a rapper. Don’t suppose he’s going to soak up many of them.
Yours was far from the only reply in the thread.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, I doubt all those receivers end up on the final roster.
Sorry, Jr. we really going down that path?
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Back on ignore. Take care.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Marvin's boy is like 13 years old, I don't think he is rapping.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
“Lambasted” seems a bit hyperbolic - but playing the victim seems to be a new phenomenon on these boards. Not trying to butt heads with you, but making an observation about this preseason here.
A few people pointed out those targets don’t need to come from St. Brown. There are plenty of vacated targets for Gibbs and LaPorta. Personally I think the conversation was healthy and I welcome hearing out opposing views. It’s surely possible St Brown regresses - I’m just not betting on that and I say that as some one that does not roster him yet.
Personally, I’m not also ready to give a rookie TE any large target share.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
I have serious doubts about LaPorta being so impactful. When do we ever see rookie TEs really be major contributors? It's quite rare.
I agree the math can be hard to come up with an allocation of targets that does not leave at least one of the trio getting less targets then anticipated and I say this as someone very confident that Gibbs and Laporta, in some order, will be the #2 and #3 pass catchers on the team. This is further complicated by fact all 3 of them work best in short/intermediate with a heavy reliance on YAC. As you said, something seems like it has to give for at least one from this group to not be at least mildly disappointing.
I'd like to think the team might view Gibbs and Laporta as extensions of the running game and just throwing more short passes at the sake of pure rushes but not sure that's the needed plan when you are running behind one of the better OL's.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, if you had to bank on one of these 3 players disappointing this year, with the bar set at 100-ish targets, who would you most expect to fall short: St Brown, La Porta, or Gibbs? I mean, me, I’m guessing it ends up being one of the rookies rather than a guy who has already played in the NFL at a high level, but that’s just me.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
My whole point though is Amon needs like 150 targets just to tread water for a full season and his ADP doesn’t leave much juice to squeeze.
I do think Gibbs has at least the possibility of a lot of juice at ADP. LaPorta is tough given how few rookie tight ends move the needle but the drumbeat is pretty hard to ignore. Already loved the player but seems he’s earning a big role.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
That comes back to game
That’s certainly possible they view them in such a way. It brings me back to game script though and I see them not needing to chase the game as much as last year so may just be less opportunities all around. Depends on how improved the defense is I suppose but won’t be surprised if they are spending more time letting the air out of the ball in 2nd halves similar to the Eagles last season. Still a potent offense for fantasy but something on my windshield when considering ceilings of these guys.
Seems like Gibbs benefits most of the bunch in how I’m forecasting their season to shape up. And I also think the field is just snoozing on LaPorta a bit although it may not last much longer.
Edit- I hate the quote button from phone
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Sounds like maybe Amon-Ra is the guy that is going to get less short-to-intermediate targets and more deep stuff. On a game to game basis, he might still command a ton of targets all over the place regardless. If I had to bet (and I sort of do), I'd say the rookie TE is the one that will be left behind a little bit. And that might be ok as the fantasy TE landscape goes. That is to say, LaPorta might still be worth his ADP even if he doesn't eat as much as Amon-Ra and Gibbs. So I guess I'm saying I think there is room for all of them to do really well. But the barometer is different for TEs than RBs and WRs. *Maybe* Amon-Ra has more TD and yardage upside this year.
