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RB Jamaal Williams, NO (1 Viewer)

Aznflyer14 said:
I apologize if my comment was misconstrued as disrespectful to Gore's past accomplishments as well as his HoF credentials but that is not my intent.  What I was trying to say that everyone has a different method of scouting.  Granted, Waldman had many misses (he even did admit that he failed to project Russell Wilson' success so he went back and changed his scouting evaluation for future QB prospects).  I'm sure McCloughan felt the same to continue to evolve his scouting acumen. 
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Well that’s far less of an extreme postion than those breaking at the seams to tell people who are not professional scouts to trust their eyes. I had an epiphany this offseason that I rarely get to or have time to watch full games and I’ve never been strong at the intricacies of football. I’ve also followed “Fantasy experts” whose success and failures very widely. There is no perfect system, these are humans and not absolutes. I understand part of the allure of Fantasy football is to celebrate your own personal methods of finding gems. So while your point stands that far worse talents have done more with their ability than Williams odds are heavily against him (heavily against Mays too). I’m trying to maximize ceiling on my roster. That means if I have a player with terrific collegiate production but a below mediocre athletic profile and another player with a terrific athletic profile and below mediocre collegiate production I’m going with the athlete. In Jones v Williams you’re talking about a player with a complete profile with terrific collegiate production, high use in the passing game in college and an athletic profile that matches some top backs in the league vs. a guy with good collegiate production (although interestingly and not surprisingly skewed by major production against mediocre opponents) but bad athlete. It’s not even a question of who the better prospect is. Williams is a wing and a prayer. If you think he is going to be an all-pro you’re betting that he is an outlier, like Gore. I just do not see the value in doing that in dynasty. 

 
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Aznflyer14 said:
I apologize if my comment was misconstrued as disrespectful to Gore's past accomplishments as well as his HoF credentials but that is not my intent.  What I was trying to say that everyone has a different method of scouting.  Granted, Waldman had many misses (he even did admit that he failed to project Russell Wilson' success so he went back and changed his scouting evaluation for future QB prospects).  I'm sure McCloughan felt the same to continue to evolve his scouting acumen. 
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I understood what you meant in regards to the metrics only being a small part of the information. IIRC Gore had a pretty bad injury that there were some doubts about his full recovery from as well as part of why he fell to the 3rd round where the 49ers selected him.

Pretty much any GM or scout will tell you that watching the players is the most important part of the evaluation of NFL players. Metrics are only meant to supplement watching the players and a small fraction of that evaluation. There are so many exceptions to any tendency identifiable by the metrics and any metric based evaluation has a lot of holes in it, because so many of the players do not do any of the drills or only do some of them. Most of the time when a player of interest doesn't do a drill, it is because they already know they wont test well in it and the poor measurement can only hurt their draft stock. if all of the players did all of the drills we would have even more examples of very good players not testing well than we already do.

FWIW Gore did not have good metrics in most of the drills he did at his pro day. He did have a good 3 cone time though. 

The metrics do not measure things like vision, toughness, pad level, football intelligence and so on that very good players do have. A lot of these things are much more important than the metrics in my opinion. That is why watching the players is the biggest part of the evaluation.

 
Bojang0301 said:
Well that’s far less of an extreme postion than those breaking at the seams to tell people who are not professional scouts to trust their eyes. I had an epiphany this offseason that I rarely get to or have time to watch full games and I’ve never been strong at the intricacies of football. I’ve also followed “Fantasy experts” whose success and failures very widely. There is no perfect system, these are humans and not absolutes. I understand part of the allure of Fantasy football is to celebrate your own personal methods of finding gems. So while your point stands that far worse talents have done more with their ability than Williams odds are heavily against him (heavily against Mays too). I’m trying to maximize ceiling on my roster. That means if I have a player with terrific collegiate production but a below mediocre athletic profile and another player with a terrific athletic profile and below mediocre collegiate production I’m going with the athlete. In Jones v Williams you’re talking about a player with a complete profile with terrific collegiate production, high use in the passing game in college and an athletic profile that matches some top backs in the league vs. a guy with good collegiate production (although interestingly and not surprisingly skewed by major production against mediocre opponents) but bad athlete. It’s not even a question of who the better prospect is. Williams is a wing and a prayer. If you think he is going to be an all-pro you’re betting that he is an outlier, like Gore. I just do not see the value in doing that in dynasty. 
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Yes!  Clearly, the Green Bay front office should all be dismissed immediately, because they took the clear lesser prospect wing and a prayer player a round prior to the guy with the profile matching the top backs in the NFL.  I guess that's why Green Bay is always a bottom-dwelling also-ran who sucks at drafting.  Dummies.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Yes!  Clearly, the Green Bay front office should all be dismissed immediately, because they took the clear lesser prospect wing and a prayer player a round prior to the guy with the profile matching the top backs in the NFL.  I guess that's why Green Bay is always a bottom-dwelling also-ran who sucks at drafting.  Dummies.
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Great analysis. Strong contribution. Superior debating skills. I submit. You have convinced me with your cunning couch scouting skills that Jamaal Williams is a fantastic prospect.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Yes!  Clearly, the Green Bay front office should all be dismissed immediately, because they took the clear lesser prospect wing and a prayer player a round prior to the guy with the profile matching the top backs in the NFL.  I guess that's why Green Bay is always a bottom-dwelling also-ran who sucks at drafting.  Dummies.
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No freaking kidding. Smh

 
Lots of words in this thread for 2 players who's replacements will be drafted in the 19-20 draft. 

 
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Gracchi Bros said:
Lots of words in this thread for 2 players who's replacements will be drafted in the 19-20 draft. 
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Thats still 3 years out. I don't really expect any RB to last longer than that.

As far as a lot of words, guilty as charged. However I do think its worth talking about, not just for these specific players, but in relation to the evaluation process in general. At least that is the part of these discussions I enjoy the most.

Have you seen the Christine Michael threads? This is pretty light compared to some of the discussion about players who never really amounted to anything.

 
i dont care about a 3 cone drill, 40 time, his bench press or not one single thing that happened in underwear in February.

I care that he is the starting RB in week 11 of the 2017 that may see 20 carries and is just as likely to fall in the endzone ans mostly anyone else and may be a great fill in for this week.

Fantasy football does not care about metrics, it cares about points and he has a better shot to get them this week then a guy who is named Fournette at this point. Who had better metrics, doesnt matter because one may score points this week the other may not...and thats the point of fantasy football.

Metrics are for people trying to hard to look like they know what they are talking about.

 
Bojang0301 said:
You must not have heard that the GB front office is infallable. All of the backs they drafted this year are bound for superstardom. 
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why are you even here? all youce posted is snarky comments that are meant to bait people into an online argument. if you don't likenthe discussion go somewhere else. don't bring your sour-pus s here in an effort to bring everyone down to your level. if you wish o contribute, great, if not, go in a different thread and troll

 
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Dr. Dan said:
why are you even here? all youce posted is snarky comments that are meant to bait people into an online argument. if you don't likenthe discussion go somewhere else. don't bring your sour-pus s here in an effort to bring everyone down to your level. if you wish o contribute, great, if not, go in a different thread and troll
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Sure, I brought it down to that level. You’re right though, there is nothing to be gained here.

 
Kid had a 'decent' game:

  • 18 rushes
  • 57 yards
  • 4 receptions
  • 38 yards
Then the Aaron Jones bomb drops today:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/11/20/packers-running-back-aaron-jones-faces-marijuana-related-charge/880409001/

Packers running back Aaron Jones faces marijuana-related charge

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seems like he will get every opportunity to be the bell-cow runner for the offense.

Hopefully he'll do enough to reclaim the job next year with Rodgers back behind center.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Kid had a 'decent' game:

  • 18 rushes
  • 57 yards
  • 4 receptions
  • 38 yards
Then the Aaron Jones bomb drops today:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/11/20/packers-running-back-aaron-jones-faces-marijuana-related-charge/880409001/

Packers running back Aaron Jones faces marijuana-related charge

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seems like he will get every opportunity to be the bell-cow runner for the offense.

Hopefully he'll do enough to reclaim the job next year with Rodgers back behind center.
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He also looked solid in pass pro.  If only Hundley could move in any direction but backwards.......

 
Longtucky Lemmings said:
He also looked solid in pass pro.  If only Hundley could move in any direction but backwards.......
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I believe Williams was always the better pass pro option, which is why he started the season as the backup.  But Jones showed he was the better runner when Ty got hurt, so he leapfrogged him.

 
Dr. Dan said:
why are you even here? all youce posted is snarky comments that are meant to bait people into an online argument. if you don't likenthe discussion go somewhere else. don't bring your sour-pus s here in an effort to bring everyone down to your level. if you wish o contribute, great, if not, go in a different thread and troll
Click to expand...


Bojang0301 said:
Sure, I brought it down to that level. You’re right though, there is nothing to be gained here.
Click to expand...
Guys, let try having a constructive and positive dialogue with being inclusive on the others' comments and opinions.   Granted, I'm not perfect but at least I value many others' insightful comments. 

Back to Jamaal Williams' performance vs. Ravens yesterday, I thought he did decent but the reality is McCarthy's play-calling did him no such favor especially vs. Ravens' tough passing defense.  I think he literally threw his serviceable QB Hundley to the wolves.

 
Any word on Montgomery's availability this week? I couldn't find anything with a quick google search. I know PIT isn't a good matchup, but Jamaal played 88% of the snaps which makes him a very safe volume play if it's just him and Mays again. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Any word on Montgomery's availability this week? I couldn't find anything with a quick google search. I know PIT isn't a good matchup, but Jamaal played 88% of the snaps which makes him a very safe volume play if it's just him and Mays again. 
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Missed practice again today. Was reported earlier that his ribs are hurting him more this time then the first time. I think they have to let him fully heal this time. If they bring him back early again he likely will just get re-injured again. Most likely won't play this week.

 
So assuming TMont is still out, what do we think of him this week? Obviously, you would expect a negative gamescript vs. Pittsburgh, which is generally bad for an RB, particularly a plodder like Williams. On the other hand, he's all they've got, and not only has he had 20+ touches each of the past two games, he had 6/4/38 in the passing game in a highly negative gamescript last week.

My choice is between him and Collins. They both have tough match-ups, but Collins has a potentially positive gamescript (while also having more competition in the backfield). Leaning that way mostly out of inertia, but I'm definitely intrigued by Williams.

 
zftcg said:
So assuming TMont is still out, what do we think of him this week? Obviously, you would expect a negative gamescript vs. Pittsburgh, which is generally bad for an RB, particularly a plodder like Williams. On the other hand, he's all they've got, and not only has he had 20+ touches each of the past two games, he had 6/4/38 in the passing game in a highly negative gamescript last week.

My choice is between him and Collins. They both have tough match-ups, but Collins has a potentially positive gamescript (while also having more competition in the backfield). Leaning that way mostly out of inertia, but I'm definitely intrigued by Williams.
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Matt Bitonti just dropped the OL down 7 spots this week to the worst in the league and PIT is pretty tough against the run, so I'm leaning towards benching him for someone with a better matchup, but he's definitely got volume and PPR appeal.

 
FF Ninja said:
Matt Bitonti just dropped the OL down 7 spots this week to the worst in the league and PIT is pretty tough against the run, so I'm leaning towards benching him for someone with a better matchup, but he's definitely got volume and PPR appeal.
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This is where the Skycam on last week's TNF comes in handy. Seeing what the RBs see, it was clear that Tenn was able to open up some holes against the Steelers front line on a few plays, but DeMarco looked too slow to take advantage. On the other hand, saying, "There are holes as long as the RB is quick enough to hit them" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of Williams. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Matt Bitonti just dropped the OL down 7 spots this week to the worst in the league and PIT is pretty tough against the run, so I'm leaning towards benching him for someone with a better matchup, but he's definitely got volume and PPR appeal.
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Starting Ginn over him. Hate the matchup. Hate that the Packers will probably be down 20 when all’s said & done. 

This is not a great week to start a Green Bay running back regrardless of who it is. Ahman Green could come out of retirement with a time machine to put him in his prime and I wouldn’t start him at Pittsburgh. 

If your week depends on a GB RB, may the good lord have mercy on your soul. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Starting Ginn over him. Hate the matchup. Hate that the Packers will probably be down 20 when all’s said & done. 

This is not a great week to start a Green Bay running back regrardless of who it is. Ahman Green could come out of retirement with a time machine to put him in his prime and I wouldn’t start him at Pittsburgh. 

If your week depends on a GB RB, may the good lord have mercy on your soul. 
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I should make a career out of being wrong. 

I’m really, really good at it. :doh:  

So glad his 20+ is on my bench while Hunt shined in my lineup. :(

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Nah - I just ate my crow and moved on. 

Hopefully it doesn’t cost me the W.

fwiw I wasn’t hating on Williams, just the matchup and what I thought was a not very good GB offense. 
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I wasn't even paying attention to what anyone said.  I just needed him to have a good game and had no choice. 

 
Even when Montgomery comes back, I think Williams has earned the early down role the ROS barring injury. I don't think the Pack will trust Montgomery's ability to be an every down back and stay healthy. 

 
gradin123 said:
Even when Montgomery comes back, I think Williams has earned the early down role the ROS barring injury. I don't think the Pack will trust Montgomery's ability to be an every down back and stay healthy. 
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Maybe, but Aaron Jones was also running pretty well before he got hurt. I don't think the situation is settled yet, although Jones being pulled over for weed possession isn't going to help Jones in the eyes of the coaching staff.

 
I drafted him in the first of a rookie draft.

Cut him after a month or so of nothing.

Used the first spot of the WW to pick him back up.

I am not sure about his pure running ability.  I like his pass-pro and reception ability and lately he is scoring but I would like to see his average per carry rise and have him break off a long run or two.

If our trade deadline hadn't passed I would try to deal him for a future first round pick but I am glad I have him right now on the brink of the playoffs.

 
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I have him and Collins battling it out for my RB2 slot. Actually kind of a similar situation -- OK, not great RBs who have gotten a chance through injuries, but whose situations remain unsettled. With Collins, it's still unclear how much a healthy Woodhead will cut into his workload. With Williams, we don't know a) when Montgomery will be back, and b) what will happen once he is.

As of now, I feel like Collins has the better track record, but it will likely be a week to week thing. Hell, the way DeMarco is playing, I may just bench him and start both of them.

 
gradin123 said:
Even when Montgomery comes back, I think Williams has earned the early down role the ROS barring injury. I don't think the Pack will trust Montgomery's ability to be an every down back and stay healthy. 
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I don't think you need to worry about Montgomery taking the lead back role from Williams, though Montgomery would certainly mix in on all passing downs.

The question ROS is regarding Jones' knee health, IMO.  Jones just looks like the better player to me, though that's not to suggest Williams is a total turd.  He's just not a very efficient player, but efficiency and volume are not the same thing, and he's currently getting the volume with not much to change that outlook on the immediate horizon (Jones was originally a 3-6 week thing I believe).

 
zamboni said:
Maybe, but Aaron Jones was also running pretty well before he got hurt. I don't think the situation is settled yet, although Jones being pulled over for weed possession isn't going to help Jones in the eyes of the coaching staff.
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I think that actually occurred before the Cowboys game, and just wasn't reported until more recently.

 
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