This is a really good question. What does the collective wisdom of the Pool think about Williams' dynasty value? Is he just a guy, who had a few good games but is stuck in a RBBC, or does he have good chance for a few years of lead back value?
He's a really hard guy to gauge. I think I posted in another thread that he's got about a 50% chance, IMO, to remain the lead back next year. With GB changing GMs, I think those odds dip just a little bit. It's possible the new GM wants to bring in one of the many impressive rookies. But logically, the position is currently pretty deep and really inexpensive, so I still think GB addresses other needs in the draft.
I recall seeing a January dynasty mock ADP where he was somehow below Aaron Jones. I'm guessing this has to do with Jamaal's low ypc. Given his situation last year, I don't think we can ding him too badly on that aspect. I mean, he broke 7 tackles in the Chicago game and still only managed 20 for 67. When you're breaking that many tackles and still averaging less than 4 ypc, then you're getting hit at or behind the LoS and facing too many men in the box to break any long runs. Given that this offense runs through Rodgers, I think JW is a perfect fit. He is an excellent pass protector and he can grind out the tough yards. The main question about him coming out of college was his ability to catch passes since BYU didn't use him in that phase of the game, but he put those questions to rest as a rookie, amassing 25/262/2 with only 7 starts. So while he's no game breaker/offensive centerpiece like Jamaal Charles in his prime, I think he's a great building block.
Where he's priced right now, it seems he's either going to be a really cheap high end RB2 or a really expensive handcuff.
One might ask, why are you not higher on Jones? Well, Jones was 3rd on the depth chart to start the season and he stayed there until Montgomery and Williams got hurt in the same game. Shined briefly, but got injured twice. He's more athletic than Williams, but he's not THAT athletic (50th percentile on SPARQ). He
might learn to be a better pass protector, but the safe route to go is to wait until you see it to believe it. Until he does, that will be a knock on him, especially after a lost season for the Packers due to a Rodgers injury. Additionally, I know Jones has a higher BMI than Williams but if you watch them play, there's no doubt that Jones (5'9" 208) plays a lot smaller than Williams (6' 212). The one thing everyone expected him to excel at - pass catching - he did very little of (9/22/0). The cherry on top is that he got arrested last year. So while he's got some potential, my guess is that he's behind Williams to start the season barring an unforeseen injury. Williams carried the running game once he got his chance and finished strong while Jones was injured and getting arrested. That's just too much to overcome for a 5th round compensatory pick.
http://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/18/packers-rookie-review-rb-jamaal-williams/
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2018/1/30/16951128/packers-2017-acquisitions-aaron-jones-jamaal-williams-devante-mays-nfl