Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Often the insane are the most brilliant of all... so ignore their antics and the whites of their eyes and glean pearls of unconventional wisdom.
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RB Javonte Williams, DAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
If that's true, might be a year early for the hype train. I pass on Barkley for him, might not do that today
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Yup hard to say. I literally had to double check the date of the quote/tweet..thought it might have been from last year but nope.
Ugh hopefully just didn't waste my 2nd rd pick
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
If true, sounds exactly like last year. I had Gordon and he was handy, got a fair few short range tds while Javonte seemed to run better and get the longer tds. Figured it was the passing of the torch surely this year, sad times
Deamon
Footballguy
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I mean in trying to remain glass firmly half full, Gordon will inevitably snipe a few short range tds, regardless of the split. This might not be that big a deal, very few teams run one RB into the ground these days, Tennessee excluded. They seemed to want Henry to touch the ball 45 times a game last year.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
You are absolutely correct. But the point is, he's largely being drafted that way already.
On the high side (ESPN), he's being drafted at RB12. Right behind.......Aaron Jones. Way behind Swift (who didn't lead his own team in carries last year and Jamaal is still around).
There about 7-8 really talented RB's that aren't in a known timeshare.
Javonte is going after all of them. He's going just barely above where he actually finished last year (RB15-17ish depending on the system).
So, he's a super high upside player that's pretty much being drafted at his floor. His ADP reflects the situation. If Gordon wasn't there, he'd be a Top 8 RB pick.
Unless anybody is taking him over Dalvin Cook or something, I'm not sure who you think is doing it on "hope and hope alone".
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
My post clearly and specifically refers to the 55/45 touch ratio. If you scan the discussion for the last few months there have been numerous posters that had Javonte at much higher workload/touch rate or implying as such by calling JW an RB1.
Javonte will see an increased workload, I'm not sure anyone questions that. The more salient question lies in how much additional work he'll see. Will his role move to a 60% workload, 70% workload, 75% workload? Response: This is so true. Good point.
I see it as at least a 60-40 split in favor of Williams to start the season, with the potential to widen that gap.
I’d suggest that at best/worst it will be 60-40 to one side or the other for 2022
I feel like Javonte is going to be in the 60-65% range when both backs are healthy
Williams saw just over 50% of the workload as a rookie, I'd be shocked if he didn't increase that by quite a bit. I'd be betting on say, 65% or so.
Javonte can be a RB1 on this team even after giving Gordon some carries
I think Williams can be a Top 5 RB and a $2.5M Gordon re-signing doesn't bother me much.
I'm pretty solidly in the Javonte 1A 60%
And on and on...
facook
Footballguy
You are absolutely correct. But the point is, he's largely being drafted that way already.
On the high side (ESPN), he's being drafted at RB12. Right behind.......Aaron Jones. Way behind Swift (who didn't lead his own team in carries last year and Jamaal is still around).
There about 7-8 really talented RB's that aren't in a known timeshare.
Javonte is going after all of them. He's going just barely above where he actually finished last year (RB15-17ish depending on the system).
So, he's a super high upside player that's pretty much being drafted at his floor. His ADP reflects the situation. If Gordon wasn't there, he'd be a Top 8 RB pick.
Unless anybody is taking him over Dalvin Cook or something, I'm not sure who you think is doing it on "hope and hope alone".
RB 14 in non ppr, taken after Chubb Fournette Saquon Swift, and just ahead of Connor. Seemed very appropriately placed in the early third (qb heavy scoring).
Stoneworker
Footballguy
As far as why a 55/45 split vs 60+ as a starting point matters for rankings, IMO Chaka nailed it with this post.
None of these are incorrect yet. You're taking a victory lap based on a tweet that said "looks like...". Might want to at least wait until we see a few plays first, no?
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Lol. Of course everything is out the window after the first snap.
But until then we are still in the world of preseason projections. And those are based on data, analysis and every scrap of info we can cobble together.
My 55/45 touch projection was based on solid analysis of GB comps, closely following the Broncos training camp (e.g. Gordon quote rotating every other first team series) and then validated by the Broncos Insider Allbright's tweet.
Perhaps you can show me something remotely solid that backs up any 60%+ touch projection in here...and then how it's been validated by Broncos beat writers...and I'd be happy to have a conversation.
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This might be the strangest stance that anyone had taken on these boards, and that’s saying something. You’re proclaiming that anyone who feels that Javonte will get more than 55% of the touches is wrong based upon your belief/projections/insight/crystal ball, and part of that is because a Bronco beat writer feels that same as you? Yep, you better call all these foolish Javonte optimists out.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
You clearly don't understand how projections/forecasts are done. 55/45 is a base case scenario that's I've defended multiple times with sound analysis. The beat writer's comment is just another confirmational data point for that assumption.
And duh. Where Javonte ends up could obviously either side of 55/45, but that is my well-defended mean/median based on all info. The probabilities (i.e. 60%) just decline as you get further away from the mean.
So if you "feel" based on "optimism" (now there's some sound forecasting there) that Javonte will get more than 55% touches, maybe actually have the balls to put an analysis out there and defend it like I did.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Williams 246 touches
Gordon 231 touches
477 touches but Williams was a rookie and we've seen some big jumps from Year to Year 2 by several RBs in recent years, Taylor last year for Indy, it seems logical that Williams would get a few more in Year 2.
275 and 225 would get you to 55/45 and a 500 touch total if that's possible, and it is with a better passing game extending drives.
I'm bullish on Javonte, just working it out on the chalkboard
I mean, everyone is projecting what they're going to do during the season, so this whole rant seems silly, but I'll entertain you for a moment.
Seems you think you had "solid" analysis of GB comps, well I say it was lazy analysis. If you looked at the workload the first 9 weeks of the year (before Jones sprained his MCL in week 10), you'd see that Jones had a 62.3-37.7 touch advantage over Dillon. If you look at the year prior, it was an almost identical 62.6-37.4. The year before, which was Hackett's first in GB, Jones had a 66% share over Williams. If you want to go back to his prior gig, look how he used Fournette (when healthy). Trust me, it won't help your case.
So, it may not be as "solid" as a speculative pre-season tweet, but almost everything about Hackett's coaching history points to him giving his lead RB 60%+ of the touches.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Just for additional perspective from Hackett’s time as OC, when A Jones was splitting touches with Jamaal Williams. In 2019, Jones had 69% of carries and 66% of touches. In 2020, Jones had 62% of carries and 62% of touches. So the split was closer to 65/35 averaged across those two seasons.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Wow. Was literally just researching the same thing. Good job!
Stoneworker
Footballguy
The 2020 Green Bay analysis of 62/37 Jones/Williams is flawed.
In 2020, Green Bay had a 3-way committee (Jones/Williams/Dillon). Their respective carries were 201/119/46.
As the lead back in the 2020 committee under Hackett, A. Jones had a...voila...55% share (201/366).
In 2020, Green Bay had a 3-way committee (Jones/Williams/Dillon). Their respective carries were 201/119/46.
As the lead back in the 2020 committee under Hackett, A. Jones had a...voila...55% share (201/366).
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Jones had a minor sprained MCL. It could just as easily be argued that Hackett didn't trust the 2nd year back for more touches over the veteran at the start of the season. But then when Dillon performed, it gave Hackett confidence to go closer to a philosophically preferred 50/50 split for the remainder of the season.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I'll concede the 2019 GB 62/38 touch ratio. Will only offer as a counterargument the obviously large talent difference between Jones and Jamaal Williams. Javonte and Gordon (historical Gordon) are much closer than those two were.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
This looks spot on as a base case IMO. MoP, you were projecting 300 touches elsewhere. Have you gotten more conservative or were the earlier ones more upside-oriented?
Your analysis is far more flawed. You didn't include receptions, and Jones missed 2 games that year- Williams had 30% and Dillon had 23% of their touches for the entire year in those 2 games. Wa la.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Not at all, still see Javonte heading towards the 300 range.
17-20 touches a game is my base case this year
So you're an armchair doctor now too lol. The one major flaw in this is that Hackett doesn't have a philosophically preferred 50/50 split since he pretty much never does that without injury.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Lol. That's BS. There is nothing more correct about using 1st half of the season analytics vs. full year. Just different opinions why the results are different.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Evidently Hackett has some type of 50/50 philosophy. Javonte and Gordon were literally rotating series in Broncos training camp. That is a fact.
I suppose Mike Clay clearly doesn't understand how projections/forecasts are done either, since he has the touches being split....wait for it....62.6 to 37.4 in favor of Williams. Somebody better re-tweet him.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Did Mike Clay cover every day of Broncos training camp like Benjamin Allbright? D-oh!
Chaka
Footballguy
Javonte played one more game than Gordon last season. And that's really the temptation with Javonte. The "What if?" factor. Gordon averaged 14.5 touches/game and Javonte 14.4
I'm on board with the 500 touch range for the RBs, I didn't lengthy breakdown of that stance above, I also see the path to 275 for Javonte but I don't think he sees 300 while Gordon is around.
I think Javonte is appropriately priced but I think the real draw is not potential injury to Gordon, it's increased scoring opportunities for the Broncos as a team.
I think there is a clearer path to double digit TDs for Javonte than 300+ touches.
Chaka
Footballguy
It's funny how the tenor of these conversations change after most people have drafted their magic football teams.
Here's a true fact: No one knows a darn thing about how this is going to play out. And we won't even begin to know until a week from Sunday (or do they play on Monday?).
Here's a true fact: No one knows a darn thing about how this is going to play out. And we won't even begin to know until a week from Sunday (or do they play on Monday?).
The only thing that's changed is one poster is attempting to take a victory lap because of a tweet.
Deamon
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Triangles
Footballguy
I apologize if this info is in a much earlier post, but 2022 is Gordon's final contract year, playing for $2.5M this season. He will be a free agent in 2023, while last year Williams signed a 4-year deal with an AAV of $2.2M (free agent in 2025). Assuming both stay healthy and productive, this likely will be a pass-the-torch season and Gordon almost certainly will be motivated to play for a potential contract next year with some NFL team. IMHO, this is situation supporting a 50-50 or 60-40 timeshare in 2022.
Chaka
Footballguy
Lol.
Aug 17th
Sep 2nd
Aug 18th
You gonna make a pie with all them cherries?
Chaka
Footballguy
Based on a very rough estimate of ~500 touches going to the top two RBs in Denver that's a that's could be a 250/250 split or a 200/300 split.
A shot at 300 touches and the upside for more of Gordon misses time is pretty nice at his draft position.
Personally if both stay healthy I think it breaks down to a 225/275 split.
2021 was Gordon's last contract year. They resigned him to a one year deal. No reason they can't do it again.
moleculo
Footballguy
I read yesterday that Allbright lives in the same building as MGIII and is quite chummy with him. Take that FWIW.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
He was rb18 last year in a perfectly split timeshare in a slow bad offense. Assuming the offense is much better, both through coaching and adding Russ, I don't see why he can't easily get to rb12. If Melvin gets hurt or Javonte's roll increases he could push for top 5. Seems like pretty good floor with a potentially league winning ceiling at the back of the second round. I understand why people would be disappointed with this news if he was being drafted in back of the first but I feel like this isn't new information. All of this is already baked into his current ADP.
Chaka
Footballguy
15th RB off the board, to me, in my 12 team redraft yesterday. Fournette, A.Jones & J.Conner went ahead of him. I can see the argument for each but am glad those three were taken ahead so I didn't have to make that decision.
The only back still on the board that I considered over him was Josh Jacobs but I figured I could get him later.
The only back still on the board that I considered over him was Josh Jacobs but I figured I could get him later.
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