RB Javonte Williams, DAL (1 Viewer)

[Stoneworker]

Lol. Deja vu all over again. This thread is starting to sound exactly like some of last year's gems...

8/30/21 - Talent wins out, J. Williams will show him the door by halftime of the first game against the Giants.

9/17/21 - this is probably the last week to get him for a reasonable price in trades, his value is going to skyrocket , probably starting this weekend.

9/30/21 - Williams will be the lead dog, it's a matter of time.

10/10/21 - At some point they're gonna have to make the switch.

10/14/21 - Who is starting him this week? I have had him on the bench the last 5 weeks, I think it is finally time.

10/15/21 - This could be the breakout game.

And finally, there is "acceptance"

10/22/21 - I believe everyone deep down knew it was going to be a 50/50 split or worse with Gordon this year. Let's hope next year Gordon isn't on that team.

8/18/22 - I’m taking him at the 2/3 turn as my RB2 if he’s there.

Yes. I agree that's a no-brainer. It's the RB1 hype that is out of control (although admittedly died down last few weeks given ADP trends).

 

[Blick]

8/18/22 - I'm taking him in the early 2nd as my RB1.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It’s one thing for us to guess on the splits between Javonte and Gordon, but for Gordon himself to come out and say that Javonte will be the guy…that removes the 5% chance that Javonte was falling to me at the 2/3 turn. :(

He didn't say "Javonte will be the guy..." He said "They want Javonte to be the guy..."

There is a rather large distinction between the two, because is necessarily means that Javonte is not yet the guy.

Well I think your diving too deeply into the semantics of Melvin Gordon. He’s clearly saying what he thinks the coaching staff’s plan is for the RBs.

Javonte will take the first snap in most every game. He is the starter and that makes him Denver's #1 RB.

But I don't think I am playing semantics at all @Stoneworker posted the entire quote above and I think a lot of people are jumping on the out-of-context headline. The full quote pretty clearly suggests a 1a/1b situation similar to last year.

His current draft price isn't outrageous although I would price him as RB14-RB15, around pick 2.12-3.03 not RB13, pick 2.08 (FF Calculator, 12 team PPR). It's a very small distinction.

I'm a big fan of Javonte, I acquired him in an early season trade last year before week 3 and I managed to time inserting him into my lineup perfectly (got his five best starts). But the week over week will he/won't he was frustrating.

IMO every week Gordon is in the lineup, Javonte is not the set-it-&-forget-it RB1/2 he is being drafted as, and that will frustrate a lot of people.

Again, it's a very small point I'm making. So please put away your pitchforks (not directed at you Doc Oc, you've never been a pitchfork guy).

Yeah, I’m simply saying most fantasy owners have already baked Gordon’s presence into Williams value. He’d be an easy first round RB If Gordon didn’t come back.

 

[massraider]

Yeah, I’m simply saying most fantasy owners have already baked Gordon’s presence into Williams value. He’d be an easy first round RB If Gordon didn’t come back.

Early 1st,

 

[Deamon]

I know Javonte is the future but does anyone want to acknowledge that Gordon was still the better back last season, if only marginally?

Hackett had two good backs last year and they received almost identical opportunities.

Redrafters should build their boards off the expectation of somewhere between a repeat of last season in Denver and last season in Green Bay.

I love Javonte but I think he's going to be over priced by the time my draft rolls around.

He prob won't get drafted in your league

I can tell this will never get old.

Just like Peter Pan!

 

[Chaka]

Yeah, I’m simply saying most fantasy owners have already baked Gordon’s presence into Williams value. He’d be an easy first round RB If Gordon didn’t come back.

He sure would.

I hope everyone understands that I am discussing nuance, not grand differences. That's why we're here, right? We all know the broad strokes, it's the details we're trying to sort.

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous. In each game Gordon plays we should expect closer to RB#20-24 production, depending on league configurations, not RB14 production.

I rank Javonte as the RB14 but that's mostly because I can make similar downside arguments for every RB behind him and not many have the upside, even with injuries.

My bigger concern is which player at another position do I pass on to take Javonte? Tyreek? Evans? Josh Allen? Mark Andrews?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

 

[Deamon]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

Ya @Chaka , rb14 is under the assumption there is no injury at all to Gordon. He's a top 5 rb without Gordon there. Did you not watch last year?

 

[Chaka]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

Ya @Chaka , rb14 is under the assumption there is no injury at all to Gordon. He's a top 5 rb without Gordon there. Did you not watch last year?

I did watch, I traded for him after week 2. I rank him as my RB14 this year. I think he's great.

He also finished last season as RB22 in my league (Gordon was RB24).

I expect the Denver offense to be much better with Wilson, maybe enough to move Javonte up 8 spots. I happen to think the pass catchers will be the primary beneficiary beneficiary, but the high tide should lift all boats.

As I stated above, the question is not which RB do I prefer over him but which player do I pass on to take him at his 2.08-2.12 ADP?

 

[Deamon]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

Ya @Chaka , rb14 is under the assumption there is no injury at all to Gordon. He's a top 5 rb without Gordon there. Did you not watch last year?

I did watch, I traded for him after week 2. I rank him as my RB14 this year. I think he's great.

He also finished last season as RB22 in my league (Gordon was RB24).

I expect the Denver offense to be much better with Wilson, maybe enough to move Javonte up 8 spots. I happen to think the pass catchers will be the primary beneficiary beneficiary, but the high tide should lift all boats.

As I stated above, the question is not which RB do I prefer over him but which player do I pass on to take him at his 2.08-2.12 ADP?

So you rank him 14th assuming there will be a Gordon injury? You don't think he's way higher than that with Gordon out?

 

[Chaka]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

Ya @Chaka , rb14 is under the assumption there is no injury at all to Gordon. He's a top 5 rb without Gordon there. Did you not watch last year?

I did watch, I traded for him after week 2. I rank him as my RB14 this year. I think he's great.

He also finished last season as RB22 in my league (Gordon was RB24).

I expect the Denver offense to be much better with Wilson, maybe enough to move Javonte up 8 spots. I happen to think the pass catchers will be the primary beneficiary beneficiary, but the high tide should lift all boats.

As I stated above, the question is not which RB do I prefer over him but which player do I pass on to take him at his 2.08-2.12 ADP?

So you rank him 14th assuming there will be a Gordon injury? You don't think he's way higher than that with Gordon out?

I said this above. He's not 14 because I think he will finish as the 14th best RB but because every RB behind him has at least as many question marks (i.e. more downside) without the upside. So, yes it's an upside ranking.

Just like guys like Zeke or Elijah Mitchell are below Javonte on my board because I view their downside to be worse.

 

[Deamon]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

Ya @Chaka , rb14 is under the assumption there is no injury at all to Gordon. He's a top 5 rb without Gordon there. Did you not watch last year?

I did watch, I traded for him after week 2. I rank him as my RB14 this year. I think he's great.

He also finished last season as RB22 in my league (Gordon was RB24).

I expect the Denver offense to be much better with Wilson, maybe enough to move Javonte up 8 spots. I happen to think the pass catchers will be the primary beneficiary beneficiary, but the high tide should lift all boats.

As I stated above, the question is not which RB do I prefer over him but which player do I pass on to take him at his 2.08-2.12 ADP?

So you rank him 14th assuming there will be a Gordon injury? You don't think he's way higher than that with Gordon out?

I said this above. He's not 14 because I think he will finish as the 14th best RB but because every RB behind him has at least as many question marks (i.e. more downside) without the upside. So, yes it's an upside ranking.

Just like guys like Zeke or Elijah Mitchell are below Javonte on my board because I view their downside to be worse.

Oh wow ok. Well we are all entitled to our own opinion. Saying rb14 is an "upside" ranking on him is just very different then what I see. He's got maybe the most upside in the league and is a Gordon injury away from a top 5 rb. Maybe even rb1.

 

[Chaka]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

When is too early to take Javonte Williams for those who believe in his talent? Do we have a Mason-Dixon line to work off of?

I think Williams can be a Top 5 RB and a $2.5M Gordon re-signing doesn't bother me much. Having some one to spell your Stud RB once in a while isn't terrible. Most teams don't trust a Rookie RB especially in the passing game, look for that to change this year.

 

[Chaka]

Javonte should be around the 14th RB off the board but that ranking is based mostly on the hope of an injury, which is dangerous

It seems like we’re taking past eachother here because this is very not true. People are not drafting Williams in Round 2 because they’re hoping Gordon gets hurt (that would just add to his upside). People taking him as RB14 most likely expect RB14 production with Gordon there. It Gordon wasn’t there, he’s likely he RB7 or higher.

Ya @Chaka , rb14 is under the assumption there is no injury at all to Gordon. He's a top 5 rb without Gordon there. Did you not watch last year?

I did watch, I traded for him after week 2. I rank him as my RB14 this year. I think he's great.

He also finished last season as RB22 in my league (Gordon was RB24).

I expect the Denver offense to be much better with Wilson, maybe enough to move Javonte up 8 spots. I happen to think the pass catchers will be the primary beneficiary beneficiary, but the high tide should lift all boats.

As I stated above, the question is not which RB do I prefer over him but which player do I pass on to take him at his 2.08-2.12 ADP?

So you rank him 14th assuming there will be a Gordon injury? You don't think he's way higher than that with Gordon out?

I said this above. He's not 14 because I think he will finish as the 14th best RB but because every RB behind him has at least as many question marks (i.e. more downside) without the upside. So, yes it's an upside ranking.

Just like guys like Zeke or Elijah Mitchell are below Javonte on my board because I view their downside to be worse.

Oh wow ok. Well we are all entitled to our own opinion. Saying rb14 is an "upside" ranking on him is just very different then what I see. He's got maybe the most upside in the league and is a Gordon injury away from a top 5 rb. Maybe even rb1.

If Gordon plays 17 where do you see Javonte finishing the season? RB14?

 

[Chaka]

When is too early to take Javonte Williams for those who believe in his talent? Do we have a Mason-Dixon line to work off of?

I think Williams can be a Top 5 RB and a $2.5M Gordon re-signing doesn't bother me much. Having some one to spell your Stud RB once in a while isn't terrible. Most teams don't trust a Rookie RB especially in the passing game, look for that to change this year.

We're discussing that right now. Top 5, really? Even with a healthy Gordon all season?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

 

[Chaka]

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

I am having the same internal debate as well.

QB & TE because league parameters vary greatly.

Personally I think any magic football leagues that devalue QBs so much that the best one in the league isn't even a consideration in the late 2nd round are for children, amateurs, non-primate zoo animals and old people who think life was so much better in the olden days.

 

[Chaka]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

 

[Stoneworker]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

I could definitely see this ranking on the assumption that each plays 17 games.

However, from a strategic standpoint I wouldn't fault anyone for ranking Javonte slightly ahead due to the fact that Gordon is a dirt cheap handcuff at RB36.

Lock up the entire Broncos backfield for the entire season, which as a whole is stronger than NYG/TB. Live with perhaps slightly less average production week-to-week over Barkley/Fournette, but have instant RB1 production if either Javonte/Gordon goes down.

 

[Chaka]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

I could definitely see this ranking on the assumption that each plays 17 games.

However, from a strategic standpoint I wouldn't fault anyone for ranking Javonte slightly ahead due to the fact that Gordon is a dirt cheap handcuff at RB36.

Lock up the entire Broncos backfield for the entire season, which as a whole is stronger than NYG/TB. Live with perhaps slightly less average production week-to-week over Barkley/Fournette, but have instant RB1 production if either Javonte/Gordon goes down.

I see the logic but having owned Javonte last season I think that's going to be a bumpy ride.

I think people discount Gordon's ability too much and how much coaches, and veteran QBs with a prima-donna bent, like/trust cagey veterans.

Barkley definitely has his own injury concerns and that is clearly factored into his current price. But everyone in the NFL is one hit, or bad leg plant, away from a season ender.

And look at the backs going ahead of Barkley. McCaffrey, Dalvin, Henry, Ekeler, Swift are all either coming off major injury or have injury histories as long as my arm. But they're not being discounted at all. Barkley's ranking feels like it has more than a bit of recency bias driving it.

Barkley is, at the very least, going to be a volume monster this season. There is no one on the roster to challenge him for touches, he's only 25 years old, the offensive line (and scheme) should be much improved and he's playing for his first, and likely only big payday. If he can regain even a modicum of his old form he could challenge for RB1.

Fournette is a bit tougher because he seems to be just a bit of a head case, at least when it comes to motivation (I don't question Saquon's motivation in the least). But he is a 3-down + goal-line back on, likely, one of the top offenses in the league and he finished as a top 5 back last season. It's tough to argue myself out of him.

I could see putting Javonte over Fournette, for reasons I cannot logically defend, but not Barkley.

 

[Chaka]

I'll tell you one thing, Gordon is definitely moving up my board. If nothing else he is going to have a ton of in-season trade value for the frustrated Javonte owner.

Gordon is somewhere around RB36 in ADP, I may move him up to RB24 on my board if my draft falls right.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I expect the Denver offense to be much better with Wilson, maybe enough to move Javonte up 8 spots. I happen to think the pass catchers will be the primary beneficiary beneficiary, but the high tide should lift all boats

Yes, the offense will be better and Williams should wrestle away a few more touches from Gordon. It’s really not a revelation that Gordon is there. I, and most, have already considered that. I’m surely not betting on Gordon getting hurt. While it’s more likely he may at his age, Williams as a RB could get hurt on any carry as well.
Williams season last year with even small bumps across the board would justify somewhere like RB14 - the nice thing is he does have Top 5 upside.

 

[Stoneworker]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

I could definitely see this ranking on the assumption that each plays 17 games.

However, from a strategic standpoint I wouldn't fault anyone for ranking Javonte slightly ahead due to the fact that Gordon is a dirt cheap handcuff at RB36.

Lock up the entire Broncos backfield for the entire season, which as a whole is stronger than NYG/TB. Live with perhaps slightly less average production week-to-week over Barkley/Fournette, but have instant RB1 production if either Javonte/Gordon goes down.

I see the logic but having owned Javonte last season I think that's going to be a bumpy ride.

I think people discount Gordon's ability too much and how much coaches, and veteran QBs with a prima-donna bent, like/trust cagey veterans.

Barkley definitely has his own injury concerns and that is clearly factored into his current price. But everyone in the NFL is one hit, or bad leg plant, away from a season ender.

And look at the backs going ahead of Barkley. McCaffrey, Dalvin, Henry, Ekeler, Swift are all either coming off major injury or have injury histories as long as my arm. But they're not being discounted at all. Barkley's ranking feels like it has more than a bit of recency bias driving it.

Barkley is, at the very least, going to be a volume monster this season. There is no one on the roster to challenge him for touches. He's only 25 years old, the offensive line (and scheme) should be much improved and he's playing for his first, and likely only big payday. If he can regain even a modicum of his old form he could challenge for RB1.

Fournette is a bit tougher because he seems to be just a bit of a head case, at least when it comes to motivation (I don't question Saquon's motivation in the least). But he is a 3-down + goal-line back on, likely, one of the top offenses in the league and he finished as a top 5 back last season. It's tough to argue myself out of him.

I could see putting Javonte over Fournette, for reasons I cannot logically defend, but not Barkley.

The guy I'm struggling with vis-a-vis Javonte is Aaron Jones. IMO he could be overvalued.

Very similar RBBC situations but Jones consistently ranked/ADP higher. There is all kinds of talk of A-Rod throwing more balls to the RB's.

Not sure I believe it and Denver should be a better offense with Adams gone from Packers.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'll tell you one thing, Gordon is definitely moving up my board. If nothing else he is going to have a ton of in-season trade value for the frustrated Javonte owner.

Gordon is somewhere around RB36 in ADP, I may move him up to RB24 on my board if my draft falls right.

I’d rethink your strategy. If Williams owners are frustrated because it’s a RBBC, how does adding the other half make it better? At that point no one cares about the “draft value”.

 

[Chaka]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

I could definitely see this ranking on the assumption that each plays 17 games.

However, from a strategic standpoint I wouldn't fault anyone for ranking Javonte slightly ahead due to the fact that Gordon is a dirt cheap handcuff at RB36.

Lock up the entire Broncos backfield for the entire season, which as a whole is stronger than NYG/TB. Live with perhaps slightly less average production week-to-week over Barkley/Fournette, but have instant RB1 production if either Javonte/Gordon goes down.

I see the logic but having owned Javonte last season I think that's going to be a bumpy ride.

I think people discount Gordon's ability too much and how much coaches, and veteran QBs with a prima-donna bent, like/trust cagey veterans.

Barkley definitely has his own injury concerns and that is clearly factored into his current price. But everyone in the NFL is one hit, or bad leg plant, away from a season ender.

And look at the backs going ahead of Barkley. McCaffrey, Dalvin, Henry, Ekeler, Swift are all either coming off major injury or have injury histories as long as my arm. But they're not being discounted at all. Barkley's ranking feels like it has more than a bit of recency bias driving it.

Barkley is, at the very least, going to be a volume monster this season. There is no one on the roster to challenge him for touches. He's only 25 years old, the offensive line (and scheme) should be much improved and he's playing for his first, and likely only big payday. If he can regain even a modicum of his old form he could challenge for RB1.

Fournette is a bit tougher because he seems to be just a bit of a head case, at least when it comes to motivation (I don't question Saquon's motivation in the least). But he is a 3-down + goal-line back on, likely, one of the top offenses in the league and he finished as a top 5 back last season. It's tough to argue myself out of him.

I could see putting Javonte over Fournette, for reasons I cannot logically defend, but not Barkley.

The guy I'm struggling with vis-a-vis Javonte is Aaron Jones. IMO he could be overvalued.

Very similar RBBC situations but Jones consistently ranked/ADP higher. There is all kinds of talk of A-Rod throwing more balls to the RB's.

Not sure I believe it and Denver should be a better offense with Adams gone from Packers.

The gap between Jones (~RB8) & Dillon (~RB26) definitely seems too large. Particularly because Dillon is three years younger and almost 40lbs heavier. I could easily see Dillon finish ahead of Jones this season.

 

[Chaka]

I’d rethink your strategy. If Williams owners are frustrated because it’s a RBBC, how does adding the other half make it better? At that point no one cares about the “draft value”.

It's highly unlikely I would pull the trigger at that valuation, as I said my draft would have to fall in place perfectly. Since we don't establish draft order until the day of, I can't know how it may fall. I imagine I would be more likely to pursue this with a 4-7 slot than a 1 or 12.

The logic is based on what Stoneworker said

However, from a strategic standpoint I wouldn't fault anyone for ranking Javonte slightly ahead due to the fact that Gordon is a dirt cheap handcuff at RB36.

Everyone talks about Javonte's value if Gordon gets hurt but no one is talking about Gordon's value if Javonte goes down. There are only a few backfields so clearly defined as Denver. Green Bay, Cleveland , Dallas, maybe Detroit.

If I can't sell that story to the Javonte owner for real value, I don't deserve to play this game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

I am having the same internal debate as well.

QB & TE because league parameters vary greatly.

Personally I think any magic football leagues that devalue QBs so much that the best one in the league isn't even a consideration in the late 2nd round are for children, amateurs, non-primate zoo animals and old people who think life was so much better in the olden days.

The argument here might become moot.

JaWill has been climbing rapidly in ADP, and I doubt he makes it to 2.09 from this point forward. I've done two NFC Championship leagues the last two weeks.
Last week JaWill went 2.11
Last night JaWill went 2.03

Looking at their ADP from Monday through today, he's going 20th overall on average. From Wednesday to today, he's going 19th overall. Definitely rising.

Of course there's a chance he falls to 2.09, and I'd be in at that price for sure. But it seems like the tide is rising. By the time I draft next weekend he could well have an ADP of 2.06 or higher. The hype is strong, and Gordon's (not serious) foot injury seems to have given drafters sugar plum dreams of JaWill the lone feature back, winner of leagues.

Barring significant injury to Gordon, I think it'll be about the same split as last year. I love the kid, but there are other players I'd rather have early 2nd.

 

[Deamon]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

I rank them:

Barkley
Javonte
Fournette

But really they're all very close and in that mid to late 2nd round group.
Barkley and Javonte both have that top 3 upside, so they are the top 2 imo

 

[Deamon]

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

I am having the same internal debate as well.

QB & TE because league parameters vary greatly.

Personally I think any magic football leagues that devalue QBs so much that the best one in the league isn't even a consideration in the late 2nd round are for children, amateurs, non-primate zoo animals and old people who think life was so much better in the olden days.

The argument here might become moot.

JaWill has been climbing rapidly in ADP, and I doubt he makes it to 2.09 from this point forward. I've done two NFC Championship leagues the last two weeks.
Last week JaWill went 2.11
Last night JaWill went 2.03

Looking at their ADP from Monday through today, he's going 20th overall on average. From Wednesday to today, he's going 19th overall. Definitely rising.

Of course there's a chance he falls to 2.09, and I'd be in at that price for sure. But it seems like the tide is rising. By the time I draft next weekend he could well have an ADP of 2.06 or higher. The hype is strong, and Gordon's (not serious) foot injury seems to have given drafters sugar plum dreams of JaWill the lone feature back, winner of leagues.

Barring significant injury to Gordon, I think it'll be about the same split as last year. I love the kid, but there are other players I'd rather have early 2nd.

I think he got a bump from the injury and the Gordon quote, but I don't see him consistently going early 2nd. I think anywhere between 2.06-2.10 is the sweet spot for him and I'd definitely look at him in there if Barkley isn't there.

 

[3nOut]

In redraft, if your draft were today, there is a lot of risk taking Javonte as your RB1. However, there is too much upside (even with Gordon there) not to take him as your RB2.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

FTR: Brady is off filming that "Mystery Singer" thing on FOX which I believe is the company that cut him the check for $375M to secure him after football for 10 years in the broadcast booth...i could be wrong but that's what I was hearing

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Chaka @Deamon @Hot Sauce Guy @Stoneworker and @Dr. Octopus also I'd like to start a fresh post since it looks like I have 10 replies when in reality it's 1 post.

-I want to be clear where I am on Williams because i have no fear factor of him improving greatly on his number of touches as a rookie. We also have a new HC and perhaps philosophy on Offense, maybe this one doesn't think it's a great idea to take the ball out of your best playmaker's hands at RB, let's start with that.

22 yrs old with lots of tread, came from a college where he split some time as well. 246 touches as a rookie and a major upgrade coming at QB to help open up those running lanes, what am I missing? Gordon has over 1,761 touches over 7 seasons. Started 10 Games in 2020, 16 last season but was likely showing the rookie the ropes and managed to grab almost 240 touches last year. Why do we think the RB worth more talent who already touched it more as a Rookie, why won't he rise from about 250 touches to say 300 touches?

-What would 300 touches do to your ranking at RB for Williams? Think outside the box, don't be afraid to experiment with projections because I promise you they will not roll out anywhere close to what they are all being projected to on each and every site...very little difference from most of the sites when you are examining the different tiers of RBs.

Williams is an RB1 in the making, trust your eyes.

 

[Stoneworker]

@Chaka @Deamon @Hot Sauce Guy @Stoneworker and @Dr. Octopus also I'd like to start a fresh post since it looks like I have 10 replies when in reality it's 1 post.

-I want to be clear where I am on Williams because i have no fear factor of him improving greatly on his number of touches as a rookie. We also have a new HC and perhaps philosophy on Offense, maybe this one doesn't think it's a great idea to take the ball out of your best playmaker's hands at RB, let's start with that.

22 yrs old with lots of tread, came from a college where he split some time as well. 246 touches as a rookie and a major upgrade coming at QB to help open up those running lanes, what am I missing? Gordon has over 1,761 touches over 7 seasons. Started 10 Games in 2020, 16 last season but was likely showing the rookie the ropes and managed to grab almost 240 touches last year. Why do we think the RB worth more talent who already touched it more as a Rookie, why won't he rise from about 250 touches to say 300 touches?

-What would 300 touches do to your ranking at RB for Williams? Think outside the box, don't be afraid to experiment with projections because I promise you they will not roll out anywhere close to what they are all being projected to on each and every site...very little difference from most of the sites when you are examining the different tiers of RBs.

Williams is an RB1 in the making, trust your eyes.

Good rationale. Where I'm cautious is using last year as a base line for bumping Javonte's touches.

Last year's Broncos OC was Shurmur, who led run-first offense in part to compensate for below average QB talent. So Williams/Gordon both had relative high number of touches in that type offense.

New Broncos coaches Hackett/Outten both come from Green Bay, and if you look at the 2021 total touches for Jones/Dillon, they are significantly fewer total touches than 2021 Broncos RB's.

So for the 2022 Broncos, with a new HoF QB, healthy stable of talented WR's, and a Packers-esque offensive philosophy, I would argue the best comp for 2022 Javonte projections is 2021 Aaron Jones' performance. Hackett has already said he's gonna let Russ cook ala A-Rodgers.

Jones had 253 total touches in 2021 (adjusted for 17 games). Adjust up or down from there if you think 2022 Javonte will get different than a 55/45 split. IMO.

 

[Chaka]

Let me try to reframe my concern because it really doesn't have so much to do with where Javonte is ranked among RBs.

12 team PPR redraft

You draw the four spot in your draft and pick the best RB on your board. When pick 2.9 rolls around who do you draft from this list of likely available players based on ADP (and all will be gone before your next pick):

Javonte, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Mark Andrews (someone else you think may be there)

Tyreek is going to have the lowest totals of his career even though they will still be solid. Evans and Tom Brady, it's reached a peak already. QB, really? TE, really? I'm trying to eliminate this down to Williams all day and 3 ways to Sundays if he is still there at 2.09...

Okay, @Deamon and I have been using FF Calculator to see rough ADP and it shows Javonte as RB13 behind Barkley and ahead of Fournette in PPR format.

Rank those three.

For me it's Barkley>Fournette*>Javonte

*If Brady doesn't suddenly re-retire, although that could mean a bump in workload for the TB RBs

FTR: Brady is off filming that "Mystery Singer" thing on FOX which I believe is the company that cut him the check for $375M to secure him after football for 10 years in the broadcast booth...i could be wrong but that's what I was hearing

Has this been confirmed or am I watching a rumor becoming an alternative fact in real time?

 

[Chaka]

@Chaka @Deamon @Hot Sauce Guy @Stoneworker and @Dr. Octopus also I'd like to start a fresh post since it looks like I have 10 replies when in reality it's 1 post.

-I want to be clear where I am on Williams because i have no fear factor of him improving greatly on his number of touches as a rookie. We also have a new HC and perhaps philosophy on Offense, maybe this one doesn't think it's a great idea to take the ball out of your best playmaker's hands at RB, let's start with that.

22 yrs old with lots of tread, came from a college where he split some time as well. 246 touches as a rookie and a major upgrade coming at QB to help open up those running lanes, what am I missing? Gordon has over 1,761 touches over 7 seasons. Started 10 Games in 2020, 16 last season but was likely showing the rookie the ropes and managed to grab almost 240 touches last year. Why do we think the RB worth more talent who already touched it more as a Rookie, why won't he rise from about 250 touches to say 300 touches?

-What would 300 touches do to your ranking at RB for Williams? Think outside the box, don't be afraid to experiment with projections because I promise you they will not roll out anywhere close to what they are all being projected to on each and every site...very little difference from most of the sites when you are examining the different tiers of RBs.

Williams is an RB1 in the making, trust your eyes.

300 touches would move him up my draft board quite a bit. I love him as a player and I would love to see him get 300-350 opportunities. He would probably be top 3 in my rankings if I suspected that may be the case.

But:
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon would seem to disagree with your first point, Hackett absolutely split time evenly between the two. Almost a 50:50 split at seasons end.

Javonte wasn't the best playmaker for the Broncos last season. His stats were virtually identical with Gordon for both Y/A & Y/R with Gordon being the goal line back. They were 100% interchangable.

Age is the biggest factor favoring Javonte, then again learning a new offense favors the veteran.

I love Javonte, I am just not discounting Gordon as much as so many people are.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@Chaka @Deamon @Hot Sauce Guy @Stoneworker and @Dr. Octopus also I'd like to start a fresh post since it looks like I have 10 replies when in reality it's 1 post.

-I want to be clear where I am on Williams because i have no fear factor of him improving greatly on his number of touches as a rookie. We also have a new HC and perhaps philosophy on Offense, maybe this one doesn't think it's a great idea to take the ball out of your best playmaker's hands at RB, let's start with that.

22 yrs old with lots of tread, came from a college where he split some time as well. 246 touches as a rookie and a major upgrade coming at QB to help open up those running lanes, what am I missing? Gordon has over 1,761 touches over 7 seasons. Started 10 Games in 2020, 16 last season but was likely showing the rookie the ropes and managed to grab almost 240 touches last year. Why do we think the RB worth more talent who already touched it more as a Rookie, why won't he rise from about 250 touches to say 300 touches?

-What would 300 touches do to your ranking at RB for Williams? Think outside the box, don't be afraid to experiment with projections because I promise you they will not roll out anywhere close to what they are all being projected to on each and every site...very little difference from most of the sites when you are examining the different tiers of RBs.

Williams is an RB1 in the making, trust your eyes.

My eyes tell me that Melvin Gordon is still on the roster and will be sharing carries with him.

My eyes also see Russell Wilson on the team, who I expect to throw significantly more than Drew lock.

I trust my eyes completely.

 

[Chaka]

The X-factor here is how much will the offense improve and how will the new distribution look?

We all agree that the offense should be significantly better but using GB as a comparison, which is fair considering how similar these teams look, I think the bulk of "new" offense will come in the passing game.

Green Bay ran the ball 446 times last season (17th) to Denver's 455 (14th) but GB had 593 pass attempts (15th) to Denver's 541 (24th).

Do we think Denver is going to morph into a 490-500+ rushing attempt team? Highly unlikely. The list of teams that ran the ball more than Denver includes three QBs that could be considered on par with Wilson. Buffalo (461), Dallas (473) & Arizona (496) the others were average to bad at the QB position.

Considering their receiving weapons it seems that Denver is more likely to become the Rocky Mountain Pack and finish somewhere around 590 pass attempts & 450 rushing attempts.

If everyone stays healthy that means, what? Maybe 280 touches for Javonte?

The real meat on this turkey is scoring. Denver ranked 23rd last season with 19.7 ppg. If they can jump into the top 10, and they have the talent to do that, it puts them in the 26.5 ppg territory. Coincidentally that is where GB finished last season.

How many of those 6.8 ppg fall Javonte's way will tell the true story of his season.

 

[barackdhouse]

Lol. Deja vu all over again. This thread is starting to sound exactly like some of last year's gems...

8/30/21 - Talent wins out, J. Williams will show him the door by halftime of the first game against the Giants.

9/17/21 - this is probably the last week to get him for a reasonable price in trades, his value is going to skyrocket , probably starting this weekend.

9/30/21 - Williams will be the lead dog, it's a matter of time.

10/10/21 - At some point they're gonna have to make the switch.

10/14/21 - Who is starting him this week? I have had him on the bench the last 5 weeks, I think it is finally time.

10/15/21 - This could be the breakout game.

And finally, there is "acceptance"

10/22/21 - I believe everyone deep down knew it was going to be a 50/50 split or worse with Gordon this year. Let's hope next year Gordon isn't on that team.

Javonte averaged 13.4 carries and 3.1 targets per game after the last quoted tweet here. 0.5 TDs per game and 77.7 yards from scrimmage. 13.0 FPs per game in PPR.

I am sure someone with the energy could tell me if that was good for RB14 or whatever during the split (wks 8-18).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I am sure someone with the energy could tell me if that was good for RB14 or whatever during the split (wks 8-18).

He was my 6th round “dead zone RB” pick last year.

He was quite helpful.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I love Javonte, I am just not discounting Gordon as much as so many people are.

You’re going too far the other way though.
Gordon sat in free agency for a month with no one even sniffing around him, and settled for a $2MM contract - the Broncos resigning him was hardly a priority.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Chaka @Deamon @Hot Sauce Guy @Stoneworker and @Dr. Octopus also I'd like to start a fresh post since it looks like I have 10 replies when in reality it's 1 post.

-I want to be clear where I am on Williams because i have no fear factor of him improving greatly on his number of touches as a rookie. We also have a new HC and perhaps philosophy on Offense, maybe this one doesn't think it's a great idea to take the ball out of your best playmaker's hands at RB, let's start with that.

22 yrs old with lots of tread, came from a college where he split some time as well. 246 touches as a rookie and a major upgrade coming at QB to help open up those running lanes, what am I missing? Gordon has over 1,761 touches over 7 seasons. Started 10 Games in 2020, 16 last season but was likely showing the rookie the ropes and managed to grab almost 240 touches last year. Why do we think the RB worth more talent who already touched it more as a Rookie, why won't he rise from about 250 touches to say 300 touches?

-What would 300 touches do to your ranking at RB for Williams? Think outside the box, don't be afraid to experiment with projections because I promise you they will not roll out anywhere close to what they are all being projected to on each and every site...very little difference from most of the sites when you are examining the different tiers of RBs.

Williams is an RB1 in the making, trust your eyes.

300 touches would move him up my draft board quite a bit. I love him as a player and I would love to see him get 300-350 opportunities. He would probably be top 3 in my rankings if I suspected that may be the case.

But:
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon would seem to disagree with your first point, Hackett absolutely split time evenly between the two. Almost a 50:50 split at seasons end.

Javonte wasn't the best playmaker for the Broncos last season. His stats were virtually identical with Gordon for both Y/A & Y/R with Gordon being the goal line back. They were 100% interchangable.

Age is the biggest factor favoring Javonte, then again learning a new offense favors the veteran.

I love Javonte, I am just not discounting Gordon as much as so many people are.

Alright Alright...you have me re-thinking some of this. Maybe MoP is trying to will him to be the RB1 in Denver and maybe that's not quite true yet but it sure seemed like he had a lot of talent and was being stopped in the red zone when they should have used him even more. I see upside but your reality check is a good one. I have Pick #5 in one league and will be targeting him in the 2nd but I have a short list of others including some juicy WRs with proven track records I would likely have to pass up. If he could slide into the 3rd but these Drafts never go the way you anticipate.

 

[Chaka]

I love Javonte, I am just not discounting Gordon as much as so many people are.

You’re going too far the other way though.
Gordon sat in free agency for a month with no one even sniffing around him, and settled for a $2MM contract - the Broncos resigning him was hardly a priority.

I rank him as RB14, that's right around consensus ADP. And I would at least consider him at RB12 over Fournette & A.Jones because Tampa has me a little nervous ATM and I consider Jones a bigger injury risk.

It's Javonte's job, I am not remotely questioning that, it's the split and the offense that matters.

I don't really care how long Gordon was in the market, he was better than Javonte on the field last season, albeit by a very slim margin. We have no reason to think he's washed up.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Gordon was in the market, he was better than Javonte on the field last season

You keep repeating this.

Maybe we watched very different versions of last season - is there really a multi-verse?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't really care how long Gordon was in the market.

You should because it tells you what the NFL thinks of him. Do you think Williams would have been left on the market for one month and had to “settle” for backup money - since you keep claiming Gordon was better than Williams last season?

Gordon settled for backup RB money because he will be a backup - now he’ll see more work than a typical backup but as the season wears on I believe we’ll see Williams workload grow more and more as it’s obvious who the more explosive player is.

 

[Chaka]

Speaking of Aaron Jones, is anyone talking about AJ Dillon as a top 15 RB?

Dillon is RB25 ATM despite putting up 1,100 yards and 7 TDs in a full timeshare last season. Jones is three years older and has been injury prone, missing 12 games over the past 5 seasons (2 more than Melvin Gordon). With the loss of Davante and the inconsistent reports about the WRs coming out of GB (including early camp darling Doubs) it is reasonable to expect the backs to see more work at least through the first half of the season.

Where is the Dillon love?

 

[Chaka]

Gordon was in the market, he was better than Javonte on the field last season

You keep repeating this.

Maybe we watched very different versions of last season - is there really a multi-verse?

Maybe. I called Melvin "marginally better" and referred to them them as "virtually interchangeable" last season, which they were, and I have repeatedly conceded that Javonte is the 1A in this situation.

Where is the flaw in RB14 for Javonte?

The point about Melvin's performance vis-a-vis Javonte's is that Melvin isn't washed up.

4.5 ypc to 4.4 ypc.
7.6 your to 7.3 ypr
10 TDs to 7TDs

Not wanting to pay veteran RBs a ton of money isn't a shocker and doesn't move the needle for me. Gordon knows the drill, we all do. My guess is he was waiting from an offer from a potential contender and, if necessary, was content to wait until a camp injury. Gordon resigned 6 days after the Wilson trade so I am guessing there was a standing offer from Denver. That a new coaching staff decided to go with an old regime player is also interesting.

It's Javonte's job but if he hits a 60% share (yadda-yadda-injury) it will be a surprise.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

You should find a better source of ADP, FF calculator is no longer a good source or even a good place to mock.

I’m in on Gordon as a later pick on teams that I started with a hero RB type of start. Just did it last night at 10.04 pick. Williams went @ 2.03 right before my pick. J Will was not in my queue at that point. I went M Andrews instead as it’s a TE premium league.

 

[Chaka]

You should because it tells you what the NFL thinks of him.

It tells you a lot of things, but a veteran RB being on the market in late April isn't breaking news, it's SoP. Free agency is also a two way street and it isn't always in the best interest of a veteran RB to take the first offer that comes around.

Do you think Williams would have been left on the market for one month and had to “settle” for backup money - since you keep claiming Gordon was better than Williams last season?

I think you know I am a fan of yours so I'm okay with saying that you're better than this and I assume you know that I am too.

as the season wears on I believe we’ll see Williams workload grow more

This!!! This is the hope of Javonte. This is why we bump him on draft boards. But as long as Gordon keeps putting up 4.5 & 7.6 it is possible, likely even, that Denver tries their darndest to keep both of them fresh for the stretch run and playoffs.

 

[Chaka]

You should find a better source of ADP, FF calculator is no longer a good source or even a good place to mock.

I’m in on Gordon as a later pick on teams that I started with a hero RB type of start. Just did it last night at 10.04 pick. Williams went @ 2.03 right before my pick. J Will was not in my queue at that point. I went M Andrews instead as it’s a TE premium league.

I moved back to MFL (12 team, PPR, redraft, recent real drafts only). Javonte is RB13, I personally have him as RB14 but am flip flopping him with A.Jones & Fournette regularly.

FF Calc was because of a discussion in another thread. You're killing my rep @Deamon !!!