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RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He hasn't been as bad as Ronald Jones as a rookie.
Sorry thats all I got. I thought Taylor was a lot better than this.
Sorry thats all I got. I thought Taylor was a lot better than this.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
He may improve with more games and time and really shine next season. He going to my bench as long as I have two other healthy RBs available each week. This has been a big miss for many of us. We were over optimistic that he would be a RB1 based on volume and talent after the Mack injury.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Got offered a likely mid to higher 2021 1st. Told the guy I'd accept tomorrow.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wat? So quick? I was the one on the boards who thought both he and CEH might be busts, and I'm sticking with both of them (at least being more positive about) longer than most.
What gives here?
Anyway, I'm not questioning your moves. It's just the length of time given to him that has me wondering. What are you seeing that you don't like?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Both Indy and Baltimore have turned into traps - who can you count on week to week?
And at RB, when a guy is given such a tasty opportunity and DOESN'T grab it by the throat...It's a blazing red flag.
In dynasty, I've gotten to the point were I get over what appears to be sunk cost pretty quickly.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Okay. Just wondering. I get the move on a purely instinctual level, because I didn't think he looked so great from even highlights in college. I thought there was a lot of side-stepping into holes and arm tackles. May I not be wrong for your sake, though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I hear you.
Before doing anything rash though perhaps you should consider the possibility that Taylor was hurt and that was why he didn't play well and get the opportunities that it looked like he had been earning prior to this last game.
The reason I said Ronald Jones was meant to be a reminder that some times these guys don't hit right away but become decent players later on in their careers. I say decent because I think if the player is great, that usually shows itself right away.
On average the rookie season is the least productive of a RBs first 6 seasons of their career, for RB who have been good fantasy producers anyways.
fredsavage
Footballguy
This line of thought got me several years of RB #1 overall, after Gurley’s 2nd year I think, I snagged him for a song. Like a first and change.
When you manage a contending team with late draft picks you may have to wait until people give up on a guy to get access to high end talent.
trader jake
Footballguy
Was thinking the same thing. Snagged Christian McCaffrey after his okay rookie season. Buying opportunity for Taylor in dynasty right now. Maybe Clyde Edwards-Elair as well.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I honestly want to sell too. I only have him in 2 league's though, and nobody has come around to buy him, at least yet. I don't mind the sunk cost either and if he does hit at this point I think it's safe to say he isn't a top5 dynasty RB. I can't exactly say he's available though either since everyone will lowball since they view me as scared.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
True, but there's likely just as many examples of the other way - where you hang onto a guy expecting him to break out but he never does.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Perhaps poor taste to bring up Ronald Jones in this context after he fumbled his way off the field tonight.
Just saying there are plenty of RB who haven't played their best football in their rookie season.
Just saying there are plenty of RB who haven't played their best football in their rookie season.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
The dynasty community is so ridiculously fickle and recency biased.
You're probably measuring too often.
If this guy suddenly sucks now, just flip coins because that's all you're doing anyway.
In a few weeks he will have another big game and everyone will be flopping over to the "he's a stud" pole.
Take advantage.
/rant
You're probably measuring too often.
If this guy suddenly sucks now, just flip coins because that's all you're doing anyway.
In a few weeks he will have another big game and everyone will be flopping over to the "he's a stud" pole.
Take advantage.
/rant
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
But that's the problem.kittenmittens said:
If he has a big game every third week and he's a central part of your roster, then he's helping you to about four wins a year but contributing to several losses the other weeks when he flames out.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
This seems like extrapolating the past into the future when so much changes so fast and so randomly. That's the problem I am referring to.
Examples:
Josh Allen is MVP!!! ................ Josh Allen Sucks!!!
CeeDee Lamb is THE dynasty WR1!!!! ................... Ooops.
Daniel Jones awful prospect!!!!! .................. Apologize to Gettlemen for picking Jones!!! ..................... Oops, nevermind!
Juju is Great/Trash/Great/Trash/Trash/Great
Lamar is the GOAT fantasy QB!!! .............. This guy is the least accurate QB in the league! Figured out!
Maybe some hyperbole there but the dynasty community swings from pole to pole on last weeks box score. Some allow a pinch of context, but we're all forgetting how random this game is and how fast things change.
The variation in how well individual players play is extreme, which of course is due to a lot of factors including health and teammate health and matchup and coaching rationality and scheme and the list goes on and on.
Twitter seems to be increasingly fickle and it just seems like its worth pointing out some of this flip flopping of positions every couple of weeks.
It reminds me of the stock investor who checks his stock values every 10 minutes and tries to find reasons why it went up or down in that 10 minutes. Even if you're out on him, wait until the price goes back up again. He's worth 2 early/mid firsts and if you sell for one you will be sorry even if you don't keep him long term.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'll agree with most of that except for this. He's done nothing to prove he's worth two early firsts.
There's very, very few players in today's game that managers would pay two firsts for.
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
You're right, two early firsts is too rich. Two mid firsts is about right. Two early firsts gets you into late first round dynasty ADP territory.
I wouldn't be shocked if you can get 2 early firsts of value a bit later though when he has another big game. he was definitely going for that (and in the early 2nd of startups) a few weeks ago.
FWIW I just had an offer worth around 2 mid firsts get rejected by a respected dynasty analyst.
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
Avoid as much as possible. Taylor is going to the bench for Gordon this week. Tough matchup and an ugly RBBC scares me away.
gruecd
Footballguy
Agreed. If Carson doesn't play, I'm gonna have to start one and probably drop one. I'll probably start Taylor and drop Wilkins, if only because they have more draft capital invested in Taylor, which hopefully means they keep giving him opportunities to be the man.
Futeki
Footballguy
I believe it is only a mess because Taylor has failed to truly impress. I am a Taylor believer, but so far his decision making as a pro has been poor (limited sample size). If that continues, the nightmare won't end.
leave a whisper
Footballguy
benching him this week for Kelley --- but hopefully rolling with him ROS after that
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Started McKinnon and Edmonds over him this week
Added Wilkins as a free agent yesterday
Wasn’t expecting this sigh
Added Wilkins as a free agent yesterday
Wasn’t expecting this sigh
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I picked up Wilkins too...rolling out JT in my flex - hoping that he steps up today!!
Wilkins a good stash just in case this starts to go really south with Taylor. I mean at some point, you have to just roll with the more productive player and it doesn't seem to be Taylor.
To be honest I am glad that I grabbed Wilkins...He might be the more valuable guy to own down the stretch
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
We have seen Wilkins in the past and he is a JAG. You could maybe use him as a spot start, but there should be no other higher expectations with him.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
2020 Taylor = 2019 Montgomery
Sell if you can.
Sell if you can.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
2 years in a row I get pick 1.2 in rookie draft....guess who I've draft ??
Nah, Montgomery is very limited as an athlete, not all that surprising that he isn't doing so well in the NFL.
I think covid completely disrupting training camp and the preseason had a pretty big impact on the rookies this year. Taylor is a great athlete, very smart, and a hard worker- I think he'll figure it out. Not as confident in his coaching staff unfortunately.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While Thielen has had a couple quiet weeks after the bye and is two years older than Allen is the way I see this deal is you basically gave up Taylor for free.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Colts like to keep us guessing.
Sounds like no one believes in Taylor right now so maybe they use him a lot now just to surprise us.
Put your socks on backwards or something and hope?
gruecd
Footballguy
You imply that someone would have traded me Allen straight up for Thielen. No way.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
They are basically the same player to me in redraft.
Dynasty Allen is worth a bit more.
