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RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (2 Viewers)

Is this schtick? That O-line has been pushed around, they are ranked as one of the worst in the NFL in run blocking so far.

Okay, has to be schtick. He's been so awful that he doesn't deserve any touches behind the great Hines and Wilkins.  :lmao:
What is fact is that the O-line which you say is the worst has been good enough for Hines and to some extent Wilkins to overcome it and post decent numbers.

 
Is this schtick? That O-line has been pushed around, they are ranked as one of the worst in the NFL in run blocking so far.

Okay, has to be schtick. He's been so awful that he doesn't deserve any touches behind the great Hines and Wilkins.  :lmao:
Since coming back from the bye in week 7, Wilkins and Hines look better than Taylor.  Maybe Taylor is injured but in any case, I don’t know how anyone in redraft holds onto Taylor at this point.  Sorry if you own Taylor in dynasty but it doesn’t look promising. 

 
That's not even to mention  that other running backs, like James Robinson and Antonio Gibson, are doing just fine.
Fully understand that people are frustrated with Taylor, but in my PPR league Taylor is the #16 RB while Gibson is the #17. Sure Taylor has played one more game and is trending in the wrong direction at the moment, but one can't be doing just fine while the other is terrible.

 
Like @FreeBaGeL said, there are plenty of rookies who are doing just fine without having a camp. I don't think that excuse holds any water.

As a Vikings fan, I spent the better part of a decade watching AP slam into the backs of his blockers. He has ZERO patience.
I thought you were a Broncos fan? =P

Peterson himself said he had to learn how to be patient and press the hole. I think he did learn how to do this but he would have lapses at times even in his prime. His impaitence is part of why he said he didn't like having a full back in front of him, until he had some great numbers with one in front of him with Norv Turner and decided its okay.

Peterson did have a somewhat upright running style as well and did not always use leverage to his advantage. Despite this Peterson was a very strong runner who broke a ton of tackles anyways.

Other flaws include poor pass blocking technique and average at best ability as a receiver. I understand what you are saying as far as Peterson having a lot of flaws.

Completely amazing jump cut acceleration and power made all of those flaws worth living with.

Sorry everyone for getting off topic here. I really don't want to talk about Taylor. He has been horrible.

 
You have a strange definition of "fact". If either of their numbers are "decent" than so are Taylor's.


YPC
Wilkins 3.7
Taylor 3.8
Hines 3.9
That's such a lazy stat that doesn't remotely tell the full picture.

SB Nation Stampede Blue: Film Room: Jordan Wilkins or Jonathan Taylor? What do the Colts do at running back?

Fansided Here’s why it could be good if Colts remove Jonathan Taylor as the starter

Rotoballer's Scott Engel: The Colts Running Backs - Jonathan Taylor vs Jordan Wilkins

CBSports Chris Trapasso: Two reasons why Colts rookie Jonathan Taylor has struggled, and why not to give up hope for a turnaround

Football Absurdity - Fantasy Football Absurdity Check: Have the Colts lost faith in Jonathan Taylor?

You read these articles and you'll see the same things repeated over and over. He's not breaking tackles or being elusive. He's running very indecisively and is missing holes. The run blocking isn't as good as it was when he was in college (obviously) and he's not adjusting to that.

 
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So, it begs the questions:

1. Where should JT go in start up dynasty drafts?

2. Where should JT go in 2021 redrafts?

I need to think about it. He was a slam dunk first, at least in dynasty format, but now, not so sure. 

He's probably a late second rounder in 2021 redrafts, maybe even third rounder.

 
Huh. Didn't buy anywhere and traded out of 1.01 because I thought he, Helaire, and Akers would be el stinko in the pros. Swift and Dobbins are in massively bad situations, but are better runners of the football.

No need for divestment here; I don't have any of them but Dobbins in one dynasty league I'm only holding place for the year (I'm still trying to build a good team). On that same team I have Gibson and Claypool, though. Good draft so far. 

But I forgot to put in the main thing which someone downthread posted but I had neglected to. I think it's too soon to fully give up on the guy. 

 
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That's such a lazy stat that doesn't remotely tell the full picture.

SB Nation Stampede Blue: Film Room: Jordan Wilkins or Jonathan Taylor? What do the Colts do at running back?

Fansided Here’s why it could be good if Colts remove Jonathan Taylor as the starter

Rotoballer's Scott Engel: The Colts Running Backs - Jonathan Taylor vs Jordan Wilkins

CBSports Chris Trapasso: Two reasons why Colts rookie Jonathan Taylor has struggled, and why not to give up hope for a turnaround

Football Absurdity - Fantasy Football Absurdity Check: Have the Colts lost faith in Jonathan Taylor?

You read these articles and you'll see the same things repeated over and over. He's not breaking tackles or being elusive. He's running very indecisively and is missing holes. The run blocking isn't as good as it was when he was in college (obviously) and he's not adjusting to that.
You're the one who brought up numbers between them- what numbers were you referring to, vision?

No one is saying that he's been great, he's been impatient and hasn't displayed good vision, however your links also mention the struggles of the O-line and poor play calling, and say some of the same things I've said- that no preseason hurt and he should get better as he gets more reps and adjusts to the NFL game.

 
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That's such a lazy stat that doesn't remotely tell the full picture.

SB Nation Stampede Blue: Film Room: Jordan Wilkins or Jonathan Taylor? What do the Colts do at running back?

Fansided Here’s why it could be good if Colts remove Jonathan Taylor as the starter

Rotoballer's Scott Engel: The Colts Running Backs - Jonathan Taylor vs Jordan Wilkins

CBSports Chris Trapasso: Two reasons why Colts rookie Jonathan Taylor has struggled, and why not to give up hope for a turnaround

Football Absurdity - Fantasy Football Absurdity Check: Have the Colts lost faith in Jonathan Taylor?

You read these articles and you'll see the same things repeated over and over. He's not breaking tackles or being elusive. He's running very indecisively and is missing holes. The run blocking isn't as good as it was when he was in college (obviously) and he's not adjusting to that.
So if Taylor is doing all of these things wrong (not breaking tackles, not being elusive), how does he have the same YPC as the other 2 guys who are doing everything right?  They all get ~4 yards on each carry.

 
I find this to be an incredible pile on. This is dynasty right? We’re 9 games into a career.

Maybe people expected too much. Ok, fine. Turns out he’s not coming in and dominating. I’m just not prepared to call him a bust this early. He’s had some vision issues especially but he hasn’t looked as bad as is being made out IMO.

To me a huge part of this is that outside of the first few weeks (where his production was fine), he’s just not getting any opportunity to build momentum. A carry here, a carry there, many in short yardage and obvious run situations with poor blocking. I don’t think that’s the way to give him confidence and maximise his abilities. He needs a series or two to himself to get things moving. Right now if he doesn’t break off a 20 yard run on his first couple of carries, it’s Wilkins or Hines time. 

Is he a bust in redraft? No doubt. But bailing already in dynasty seems incredibly short sighted. 

 
You're the one who brought up numbers between them- what numbers were you referring to, vision?

No one is saying that he's been great, he's been impatient and hasn't displayed good vision, however your links also mention the struggles of the O-line and poor play calling, and say some of the same things I've said- that no preseason hurt and he should get better as he gets more reps and adjusts to the NFL game.
Yeah but you're saying he should get more carries even while doing less with them. Until he fixes those issues, why not give other guys more work? Cam Akers is pretty much the third RB when Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are healthy. Why not reduce his workload a bit until he catches up with the NFL game?

So if Taylor is doing all of these things wrong (not breaking tackles, not being elusive), how does he have the same YPC as the other 2 guys who are doing everything right?  They all get ~4 yards on each carry.
Didn't say they were doing everything right; it's not a 100% or 0% situation. But Wilkins has shown to be a more efficient runner by metrics, and while Hines has a much smaller body of work this year running the ball you saw some of the juice and decisiveness that might afford him more opportunities in the future. What I am saying is using YPC is like evaluating a baseball player strictly by batting average. It's a part of a bigger picture, not the whole picture.

 
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I find this to be an incredible pile on. This is dynasty right? We’re 9 games into a career.

Maybe people expected too much. Ok, fine. Turns out he’s not coming in and dominating. I’m just not prepared to call him a bust this early. He’s had some vision issues especially but he hasn’t looked as bad as is being made out IMO.

To me a huge part of this is that outside of the first few weeks (where his production was fine), he’s just not getting any opportunity to build momentum. A carry here, a carry there, many in short yardage and obvious run situations with poor blocking. I don’t think that’s the way to give him confidence and maximise his abilities. He needs a series or two to himself to get things moving. Right now if he doesn’t break off a 20 yard run on his first couple of carries, it’s Wilkins or Hines time. 

Is he a bust in redraft? No doubt. But bailing already in dynasty seems incredibly short sighted. 
But that's not nothing either. The Colts said they were going to do this type of time share, but we Taylor believers thought that would go away when he showed how good he was. The opposite happened.

Pair that with his apparent ability issues and it's a clear "abandon ship" to me. 

 
Is he a bust in redraft? No doubt. But bailing already in dynasty seems incredibly short sighted. 
Even though I said I passed on him in the draft, I find this to be true, but there are those that have seen these situations more than I and view it as a total red flag that he hasn't run away with the starting position. So there's that. But I wouldn't give up on this guy yet. Too soon. 

 
Link to the metrics?  TIA
There are plenty in the links I provided. Broken Tackle rate is indicated in two articles (CBS the most updated one). Yards after contact and missed tackle rates are also shown, this link actually does a good job analyzing all 3 but it's a month old.

Give them a read; very good takes that explain while Taylor isn't running that effectively now, there's room to grow and he should have the talent to overcome his current obstacle in the future.

 
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I went for CEH in the preseason, so I'd love to toot my own horn in this thread, but jeeze you'd think this guy was 3rd year Trent Richardson or something and not a 2nd round rookie.

Take a deep breath and hold in dynasty.  And no matter what, don't trade him for anything less than what you bought him for when his value is going to rise again in the off season just due to hype pieces.

 
Yeah but you're saying he should get more carries even while doing less with them. Until he fixes those issues, why not give other guys more work? Cam Akers is pretty much the third RB when Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are healthy. Why not reduce his workload a bit until he catches up with the NFL game?

Didn't say they were doing everything right; it's not a 100% or 0% situation. But Wilkins has shown to be a more efficient runner by metrics, and while Hines has a much smaller body of work this year running the ball you saw some of the juice and decisiveness that might afford him more opportunities in the future. What I am saying is using YPC is like evaluating a baseball player strictly by batting average. It's a part of a bigger picture, not the whole picture.
He's not really doing less with them- he has the same exact number of carries as Hines and Wilkins combined, but more TDs and 1st downs than they have (combined). Also he's being used in situations that are less than ideal, like last night when 4 of his 7 carries came on 3rd or 4th and 1. How is he supposed to improve patience or vision when he's trying to push the pile for 1 yd. when everyone knows he's getting the ball and the line isn't blocking well?

IMO they had the perfect opportunity last night to give him a few more touches on their last possession- game is over, up by 17, but instead they give them to Wilkins, who by the way was performing even worse than Taylor on the night until that final drive where he had one long run through a big hole.

As for Hines, this is his 3rd year in the league, and his ypc was 3.7 and 3.8 his first two years with what was a dominant run blocking line. No, YPC isn't the be all end all, but a trend is a trend- he's explosive, but seems much better used in spurts and in space.

 
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I went for CEH in the preseason, so I'd love to toot my own horn in this thread, but jeeze you'd think this guy was 3rd year Trent Richardson or something and not a 2nd round rookie.

Take a deep breath and hold in dynasty.  And no matter what, don't trade him for anything less than what you bought him for when his value is going to rise again in the off season just due to hype pieces.
People should eject on CEH too.

You should hold JT if you're only offered less than a 1st but should accept anything involving a 1st.

 
I don't think ypc is a very good metric to compare the RB by with such small samples, and even using career numbers for Hines isn't a big enough sample. 182 carries over 3 seasons so far, I think ypc becomes more meaningful when we are talking about 900+ carries. Just too many cases of a RB having a good or bad string of 200 or so carries one year compared to their other seasons in the league.

I think you also have to consider the down and distance splits along with ypc. Not all of these opportunities have the same expected yardage outcome.

Wilkins only has 179 career carries. Slightly fewer than Hines so far. How both of these players have gotten carries has been very sporadic, which makes a stat like ypc more questionable to me than if all of those carries happened over say 8 games.

As far as the offensive line they were a lot better last season than this season. According to FBO the Colts were 12th in adjusted line yards in 2019 7th in pass protection. This year they are 25th in adjusted line yards but still 7th in pass protection. They were 4th and 2nd in these two metrics in 2018.

 
You're a jokester.
He’s right. Both were way overrated. If you can get anything close to the price you paid for either you get rid of them, absolutely. Otherwise you hold and hope for the best

JT at least has elite athleticism to fall back on as hope for next year. CEH has... a fire hydrant. And Brian Westbrook 

 
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This makes no sense to me.  I mean logically I get it, but we have the actual numbers and they would say the complete opposite.

Burrow/Herbert are putting up 2 of the best 5 rookie QB seasons of all time.  We have like 6 WRs that will probably end up with top 25 all-time rookie WR seasons.  And these are positions that are much more dependent on training camp and preseason than running back.

That's not even to mention  that other running backs, like James Robinson and Antonio Gibson, are doing just fine.

I'm not writing Taylor off, but blaming it on the lack of offseason during a year that will likely go down collectively as one of the best performing rookie classes in NFL history, is major excuse making imo.
Gibson is a pass blocking train wreck.  He's losing snaps because of it. 

I think the RBs have had a harder time picking up the offenses than we thought.  QBs and WRs being ahead of RBs is definitely a big surprise, but I don't think it means the RBs are busts at all. 

Akers, Swift, Dobbins, CEH Gibson... None of these players is ready for a full time role. 

 
He’s right. Both were way overrated. If you can get anything close to the price you paid for either you get rid of them, absolutely. Otherwise you hold and hope for the best

JT at least has elite athleticism to fall back on as hope for next year. CEH has... a fire hydrant. And Brian Westbrook 
I've said it in the CEH threat - two more tds and he's a top ten fantasy rb. But this isn't CEH thread so that's the last I'll say about that.

If everyone is bailing on these two, and I'm rebuilding, consider me a buyer.

 
I've said it in the CEH threat - two more tds and he's a top ten fantasy rb. But this isn't CEH thread so that's the last I'll say about that.

If everyone is bailing on these two, and I'm rebuilding, consider me a buyer.
Bingo. Likewise, not the Clyde Edwards-Helaire thread so I'll shut up.

 
I've said it in the CEH threat - two more tds and he's a top ten fantasy rb. But this isn't CEH thread so that's the last I'll say about that.

If everyone is bailing on these two, and I'm rebuilding, consider me a buyer.
That’s not a very good argument. 2 more TDs and David Montgomery is RB11. But he still sucks

YKWIA

 
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I don't know what that means.
He's signing everything You Know Who I Am - YKWIA

Somebody has certainly been on this board before and thinks way too much of us. To be able to discern who is just that one singular soul that has come back to haunt this place is quite the daunting task. 

 
He's signing everything You Know Who I Am - YKWIA

Somebody has certainly been on this board before and thinks way too much of us. To be able to discern who is just that one singular soul that has come back to haunt this place is quite the daunting task. 
It’s an iron man 2 thing. I figured the picture made it obvious :shrug:  

I don’t see what’s wrong with signing posts, but I guess that is schtick here?

YKWIA

 
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I did say that Peterson was able to overcome his shortcomings. With the point being his other talents were enough to do so whereas Taylor does not look similarly able.
I'm not sure what shortcomings you are referring to regarding ADP. He could have been a star in the NFL straight out of high school if they allowed it. J.Taylor is not even in the same universe. 

 
I'm not sure what shortcomings you are referring to regarding ADP. He could have been a star in the NFL straight out of high school if they allowed it. J.Taylor is not even in the same universe. 
Sorry people lost the narrative so quickly. I said that AP was the only runner I've seen who could overcome things like lack of patience whereas a runner like Taylor doesn't have the ability to overcome similar liabilities.

To be clear, AP was such an elite runner that it didn't matter that he didn't have running back skills like, say, Emmitt Smith did.

 
Sorry people lost the narrative so quickly. I said that AP was the only runner I've seen who could overcome things like lack of patience whereas a runner like Taylor doesn't have the ability to overcome similar liabilities.

To be clear, AP was such an elite runner that it didn't matter that he didn't have running back skills like, say, Emmitt Smith did.
Sure understood. That said, I don't recall any issues regarding lack of patience, although maybe decisions at the line. In my lifetime, he was the best RB prospect that I ever saw coming out of high school and college. It's still crazy to look back and see ADP, Megatron, Joe Thomas, Revis, Lynch, and more available in the 2007 draft and somehow Jamarcus Russell went #1. 

 
Sure understood. That said, I don't recall any issues regarding lack of patience, although maybe decisions at the line. In my lifetime, he was the best RB prospect that I ever saw coming out of high school and college. It's still crazy to look back and see ADP, Megatron, Joe Thomas, Revis, Lynch, and more available in the 2007 draft and somehow Jamarcus Russell went #1. 
Let’s not talk about that draft.   

- Raider Fan.  

 
Sure understood. That said, I don't recall any issues regarding lack of patience, although maybe decisions at the line. In my lifetime, he was the best RB prospect that I ever saw coming out of high school and college. It's still crazy to look back and see ADP, Megatron, Joe Thomas, Revis, Lynch, and more available in the 2007 draft and somehow Jamarcus Russell went #1. 
Adrian Peterson wants to prove he’s not one-dimensional

I didn't find the article I was looking for but I know I have read Peterson saying himself that he needed to work on his patience and pressing the hole.

eta - sorry to keep talking about Peterson. He is a lot more interesting than Taylor is right now.

 
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Since coming back from the bye in week 7, Wilkins and Hines look better than Taylor.  Maybe Taylor is injured but in any case, I don’t know how anyone in redraft holds onto Taylor at this point.  Sorry if you own Taylor in dynasty but it doesn’t look promising. 
The funny thing is that Hines gets nearly all the receiving work lately, but if you look at the stats for pass-catching backs:

                      DVOA             rank                receptions           yards         effective yards

Hines          17.6%                11                      35                    220                263

Taylor           20.8%                9                       22                    178                 199

Almost the same player.

(Kamara, Edmonds and Hunt are far away the top 3 in this list)

 
any recent examples for a rookie RB struggling only to have it click year 2?
I guess I would need better definitions of what struggling and clicking mean?

I did this study of RB performance for RB who were good at some point (Taylor hasn't been that yet) and the lowest scoring season of their careers on average is the rookie season. You see VBD range of 28 to 33 in season 2 to 6 of their careers while only 22.5 VBD on average for their rookie seasons.

If you are asking about more anecdotal examples recently there have been many successful rookie seasons and then those players falling off such as Barkley because of injury. Hunt because of off the field problems.

Ronald Jones had one of the worst uninjured rookie seasons ever and he is doing pretty well for himself right now. Not sure if that exactly fits the criteria you are looking for though.

 
any recent examples for a rookie RB struggling only to have it click year 2?
RoJo and Henderson both had disastrous rookie years and bounced back somewhat, though they aren't exactly a beacon of light as neither is worth a ton right now even after that.

Miles Sanders kind of struggled his rookie year, though he really came on the second half of the year.

The last guy that turned into a true stud after having a really bad rookie year a la Taylor I can think of is Shady McCoy, though that was quite some time ago.  LeVeon Bell also came out looking like a totally different player in year 2.

 

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