Jacobs is still young, even by RB standards. It's possible he lost a major step last year and is already washed. I think it's more probable last year was an accumulation of several anomolies leading to the drop in production, which are not going to be repeated in 2025...
- Prior year heavy touch ratio
- Long preseason holdout
- Offensive/Head coaching meltdown
- Inept, then rookie QBing
- Negative game scripts
- Late season injury
I'm not trying to make a case either way, just discussing.
At a similar juncture in his career, and by similar I mean workload and age, Zeke looked and IMO was a different version of himself, had lost a step and explosion. Joe Schoen was pointing out in that first episode of Hard Knocks, and supported by a lot of data, 27 is right around the age when RB's generally start losing a step. He's 26 of course, but an older 26 with a February birthday. So yes it's possible he's lost a step.
On your points you brought out.
None carry more weight with me as a legit excuse then the first one, that workload in 2022. I was telling people last August, I think around here as well, that workload worried me more then the holdout. Not only was it just an insanely giant workload but it was about 100 more touches then he'd had in a season.
I actually think the long holdout, point 2, should have helped with this issue of his workload. Not for the first few weeks, in that sense it was a negative, but not participating in so much camp should in theory help him keep his legs fresh after he got going.
The next few points I can't get behind, other then of course the injury but I don't even factor that into the equation because I'm just looking at how he did when he played.
But I just can't hammer McDaniels/coaching staff for Jacobs poor performance last year when it was that same staff that unlocked him the previous season.
The issue I have with putting the blame on the QB and game script is that Zamir White outperformed him in basically every metric in similar circumstances. Now there is a counter argument to that, a valid one, that Zamir had fresh legs late in the season and some of the offensive issues had started to sort themselves out by the time he got the gig.
Again not trying to take a side, and I've actually drafted Jacobs in my last two drafts. I'm projecting less of a workload then most, more in the 60% type of range but maybe a little uptick but I strongly believe he'll share the workload more then he ever has, but point is even that in a really good offense is enough volume to make him not a total bust and if he's remotely like the guy in 2022 he's a a steal.
I do have concerns he's lost a step but I guess other people have a lot more concerns because I'm drafting him while his ADP has been falling like a rock. He's moved all the way into the mid 4th of FFPC leagues, getting in range of a full 2 rounds after Derrick Henry and I got them rated essentially equal.
