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RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just did 2 dynasty start-ups in the last 2 months.
Landed Charbs in both. I have zero KW shares.
In one I’m keeping him for RB depth (and a belief that there’s a world where SEA left KW walk next year)
In the other I dealt Charbs to the KW shareholder for Andrews + Palmer (TEP)
Looking over all of my redraft & dynasty leagues, the only one where the KW owner has Charbs is the one where I traded him to them.
It’s a tough situation to handcuff. And that’s in part because Charbs is a fairly decent value pick on his own.
massraider
Footballguy
Have you ever dated an exotic dancer?
It's awesome, but there's a good chance you wind up with a baseball bat through your windshield.
These highs/lows are not for everyone.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Career Year on the horizon
Charb might do well even with a few less touches.
With Darnold at QB, there's enough balls to go around and Seattle would love to run as much as possible
Gray Zabel is their new starting LG, several other OL positions look a little shaky or nobody has seized control yet including Center
Charb might do well even with a few less touches.
With Darnold at QB, there's enough balls to go around and Seattle would love to run as much as possible
Gray Zabel is their new starting LG, several other OL positions look a little shaky or nobody has seized control yet including Center
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
https://www.bettingpros.com/nfl/odds/player-futures/kenneth-walker-rb/
Vegas right now has him at even money for 875.5 yds rushing and 6.5 rushing TDs for 2025
Vegas right now has him at even money for 875.5 yds rushing and 6.5 rushing TDs for 2025
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Summer of '92
I have Charbs on my TS in a league and I asked the KW owner if he had any interest in Charbs as we were working on some other deals and I was trying to craft a counter offer. He said no. I was surprised but so be it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If he’s thin at RB he’s playing with fire. If he’s loaded at RB his response was understandable.
Everyone is thin at RB in that league. Plus being on TS it doesn't cost him a roster spot or salary cap hit. It didn't make sense that he had no interest. It would have made more sense if my asking price was bigger than what he was willing to pay but we never even got to that point. I was going to ask if he would swap Trey Benson for Charbs as part of the deal thinking it would be more enticing to him to have Charbs than Benson given he had KW.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If I could do that to handcuff reasonably as a KWIII shareholder (which I am currently not) I would jump on it, fresh off memories of last season’s debacle in 4 of my leagues when KW went down.
Seems like an imperative, especially since Charbs is a capable RB in his own right.
rockaction
Footballguy
I added Holani in a dynasty league where we roster fifty-one. I roster Walker in another dynasty league. I’ve never not been worried. Since last year ended. Will he be healthy?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
That doesn’t affect Walker at all. He’s a completely ineffective in short yardage situations.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
I never had Martinez pegged as a long-term threat to Walker's place on the team, but in case anybody did, it doesn't appear the Seahawks agree:
Steal of the draft
From a few days ago:
Before heading to Green Bay, Walker finished a full practice and Macdonald said, "He looks great. He is fast. He is hitting his targets, reading it out pretty well. It's exciting to have him out there. When he has been out there, it's been really good."
He also acknowledged the amount of time Walker has missed out on this preseason. "It is a balance. You just have to make the best decision you can. There are a lot of walk-through reps that need to be had, but at some point, you have to do it on the field, so you feel confident to go out there and execute at a high level and play your best football. So that is something that we are working through, and he is doing the best he can, and we are doing the best we can as a coaching staff. We just have to work together on those things as it unfolds."
As for Thursday's joint day with the Packers, Walker finished practice, scoring during the team red zone period, and he and the other backs had a productive day.
"Ken's always great," quarterback Sam Darnold said. "It's always great to have him out there."
Before heading to Green Bay, Walker finished a full practice and Macdonald said, "He looks great. He is fast. He is hitting his targets, reading it out pretty well. It's exciting to have him out there. When he has been out there, it's been really good."
He also acknowledged the amount of time Walker has missed out on this preseason. "It is a balance. You just have to make the best decision you can. There are a lot of walk-through reps that need to be had, but at some point, you have to do it on the field, so you feel confident to go out there and execute at a high level and play your best football. So that is something that we are working through, and he is doing the best he can, and we are doing the best we can as a coaching staff. We just have to work together on those things as it unfolds."
As for Thursday's joint day with the Packers, Walker finished practice, scoring during the team red zone period, and he and the other backs had a productive day.
"Ken's always great," quarterback Sam Darnold said. "It's always great to have him out there."
Largent
Footballguy
that's more a product of the leagues worst o-line for about 3 years.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Odd then that Charbonnet out produced him by 6 times the rate of production in those same situations. Maybe he’s the next Leroy Hoard.
We have beaten this like a dead horse. Defenses MAY have schemed differently when Walker was in the game.
hankmurphy
Footballguy
No, you guys don’t get it.
Everything in fantasy sports can be easily extrapolated. You don’t even need to watch the game to do it.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You’re right. Opposing Ds probably ran 12 in the box vs Walker in short yardage vs 8 DBs vs Charbonnet in those situations. Oh, wait. That was the difference between the two vs heavy boxes.
Not what I said at all was it? I said MAY.
Walker led the league in broken tackles last year despite missing time. Majority of his yards came after contact. Believe he also led the league in that.
Neither RB lit the world on fire. The O Line has been poor.
2024:
Week 1 vs Denver. Walker 20 for 103 and a TD. Charb 8 for 12.
Week 2 vs NE: Charb 14 for 38 and a TD
Week 3 vs Miami: Charb 18 for 91 and 2 TD's
Week 4 vs Detroit: Walker 12 for 83 and 3 TD's. This despite what Charb did the week before.
Week 5 vs NYG: Walker 5 for 19 and Charb 2 for 11. Yikes. Walker did have 7 catches to Charbs 3.
Week 6 vs SF: Walker 14 for 32 and a TD. Charb 5 for 20.
Week 7 vs Atl: Walker 14 for 69 and a TD. Charb 7 for 14.
Week 8 vs Buff: Walker 9 for 12. Charb 3 for 4.
Week 9: vs LAR: Walker 25 for 83. Charb 32 for 8.
Week 11 vs SF: Walker 14 for 54 and a TD. Charb 4 for 3.
Week 12 vs Ari: Walker 16 for 41. Charb 6 for 22.
Week 13 vs NYJ: Walker 16 for 49. Charb 4 for 28 and a TD
Week 14 vs Ari: Walker DNP. Charb 22 for 134 and 2 TD's
Week 15 vs GB: Walker DNP. Charb 8 for 54 and a TD
Week 16 vs Min: Walker 8 for 31. Charb 1 for -1. Walker back as the starter
Week 17 vs Chi: Walker DNP. Charb 15 for 57
Week 18 vs LAR: Walker DNP. Charb 14 for 59.
Charbonnet had two big games against Miami and Arizona without Walker playing.
Both times Walker went right back to starting.
Walker had big games against Denver and Detroit. Both much better defenses and with Charbonnet taking some carries.
Facts are, Walker has been the guy when healthy. Maybe that changes. Maybe it doesn't.
Largent
Footballguy
It's Walker's backfield until he's hurt. He is their biggest offensive weapon now that DK is gone. Anyone that thinks Charbs is taking over based on talent is not watching the same football I see.
The duo is getting increasingly more expensive to put on the same redraft team.
Only one of my last few drafts has the Walker owner had a chance to take Charbs in round 8. Majority of them they'd have actually had to move on him in round 6.
As is usually my luck I just finished a draft where Charbs went earlier then I've seen him all year after I took Walker in the mid 4th someone pulled Charbs at 5.2, 7 picks after I took Walker.
Only one of my last few drafts has the Walker owner had a chance to take Charbs in round 8. Majority of them they'd have actually had to move on him in round 6.
As is usually my luck I just finished a draft where Charbs went earlier then I've seen him all year after I took Walker in the mid 4th someone pulled Charbs at 5.2, 7 picks after I took Walker.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I think people are sleeping on Charbs a bit around here. I would not feel 100% comfortable with KW3, half due to injury concerns and half because Charbs is a legit starting NFL RB imo.
mjb03003
Footballguy
Agreed. If both stay healthy it’s possible neither gets a big enough piece of the pie to put up RB1 or even high-end RB2 numbers. They could both be solid RB2/flex plays if they skew run heavy and use both guys about equally.
dmac37
Footballguy
Wishful thinking IMO. Walker is the guy and has always been the guy, especially in the new Kubiak scheme. "If" injuries keep popping up, then maybe, but this will be KW3 as the guy.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Correct, if there was anything close to an even split planned the coaches would have mentioned it by now...they've had the entire offseason to do so.
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mjb03003
Footballguy
yep, if there was anything close to an even split the coaches would have mentioned it by now...they've had the entire offseason.
Who is guilty of wishful thinking? Anyone totally ruling out a less than workhorse role for Walker or *anything close to an even split* this season seems guilty of that IMO. The quotes from McDonald and Kubiak have been shared already, so I’m not going to re-post them because they aren’t definitive and can be read or interpreted either way depending on what you want to see. All I’m saying is that many impartial observers (myself included, as I have equal exposure to KW3 and Charbs) believe there’s at least some possibility there will be a more even distribution of touches than we’ve seen in the past. Whether that’s because the coaching staff simply likes what Charbonnet brings to the table and thinks he’s has earned it, or because they want to keep Walker healthy all season and managing his workload a bit more seems prudent given past injury woes (or some combination of these factors), I can’t say. Frankly the exact reason may never be made clear and they may never come right out and declare their plans publicly. We’re all reading tea leaves to some extent and I think it’s reasonable to be cautious and keep expectations somewhat in check based on what we’ve seen and heard recently.
Charbonnet isn’t some JAG. He was a 2nd round pick and has another year on his contract beyond Walker, who is a UFA after this year. It could end up being preseason coachspeak, talking up a guy who is working hard in practice every day, but who has no real shot at unseating the starter until/unless injury strikes. Or it could be indicative of a change in their thinking about how to maximize the talent they have at that position. It’s enough to give me pause heading into drafts/this season. You can have a different read on it but don’t call it “wishful thinking” as if I’m here in the Walker thread rooting against Walker. Are the reporters biased towards Charbonnet (or against Walker)? Or is it possible there is something to see here?
Personally, I have never denied Charbonnet is a good RB. I stated earlier he helped win me a championship last year.
yep, if there was anything close to an even split the coaches would have mentioned it by now...they've had the entire offseason.
Who is guilty of wishful thinking? Anyone totally ruling out a less than workhorse role for Walker or *anything close to an even split* this season seems guilty of that IMO. The quotes from McDonald and Kubiak have been shared already, so I’m not going to re-post them because they aren’t definitive and can be read or interpreted either way depending on what you want to see. All I’m saying is that many impartial observers (myself included, as I have equal exposure to KW3 and Charbs) believe there’s at least some possibility there will be a more even distribution of touches than we’ve seen in the past. Whether that’s because the coaching staff simply likes what Charbonnet brings to the table and thinks he’s has earned it, or because they want to keep Walker healthy all season and managing his workload a bit more seems prudent given past injury woes (or some combination of these factors), I can’t say. Frankly the exact reason may never be made clear and they may never come right out and declare their plans publicly. We’re all reading tea leaves to some extent and I think it’s reasonable to be cautious and keep expectations somewhat in check based on what we’ve seen and heard recently.
Charbonnet isn’t some JAG. He was a 2nd round pick and has another year on his contract beyond Walker, who is a UFA after this year. It could end up being preseason coachspeak, talking up a guy who is working hard in practice every day, but who has no real shot at unseating the starter until/unless injury strikes. Or it could be indicative of a change in their thinking about how to maximize the talent they have at that position. It’s enough to give me pause heading into drafts/this season. You can have a different read on it but don’t call it “wishful thinking” as if I’m here in the Walker thread rooting against Walker. Are the reporters biased towards Charbonnet (or against Walker)? Or is it possible there is something to see here?
However, I don't recall anyone saying he is one of the best RB's in football. Those things have been said about Walker.
Two different coaching staffs have given the keys to Walker, when healthy, regardless of what Charbonnet does.
All preseason we have heard good things about both RB's. But the overall tone is still Walker is the guy. He is special. Etc.
They are going to be a run heavy offense. I can see Charbonnet getting more work and still have Walker be an RB1.
And IF either one gets hurt, you're probably sitting on a top 5 RB.
Although, as menobrown said above, the cost to own both is getting more expensive because the risk may be worth the reward.
Yeah I have no shares in either right now with all drafts this upcoming weekend.
yep, if there was anything close to an even split the coaches would have mentioned it by now...they've had the entire offseason.
Who is guilty of wishful thinking? Anyone totally ruling out a less than workhorse role for Walker or *anything close to an even split* this season seems guilty of that IMO. The quotes from McDonald and Kubiak have been shared already, so I’m not going to re-post them because they aren’t definitive and can be read or interpreted either way depending on what you want to see. All I’m saying is that many impartial observers (myself included, as I have equal exposure to KW3 and Charbs) believe there’s at least some possibility there will be a more even distribution of touches than we’ve seen in the past. Whether that’s because the coaching staff simply likes what Charbonnet brings to the table and thinks he’s has earned it, or because they want to keep Walker healthy all season and managing his workload a bit more seems prudent given past injury woes (or some combination of these factors), I can’t say. Frankly the exact reason may never be made clear and they may never come right out and declare their plans publicly. We’re all reading tea leaves to some extent and I think it’s reasonable to be cautious and keep expectations somewhat in check based on what we’ve seen and heard recently.
Charbonnet isn’t some JAG. He was a 2nd round pick and has another year on his contract beyond Walker, who is a UFA after this year. It could end up being preseason coachspeak, talking up a guy who is working hard in practice every day, but who has no real shot at unseating the starter until/unless injury strikes. Or it could be indicative of a change in their thinking about how to maximize the talent they have at that position. It’s enough to give me pause heading into drafts/this season. You can have a different read on it but don’t call it “wishful thinking” as if I’m here in the Walker thread rooting against Walker. Are the reporters biased towards Charbonnet (or against Walker)? Or is it possible there is something to see here?
You can't deny Charbonnet's production when Walker has been out. And you can't deny that Walker just can't seem to stay on the field.
Understanding the risk of Charbonnet eating into Walker's touches, I'll probably be looking to draft the cheaper option in drafts this weekend.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And yet a bunch of folks seem to be in total denial about this part. And that the Seahawks keep talking about having to manage his foot.
Less than ideal situation for KWIII shareholders, IMO.
Agree.
People see and hear what they want to see and hear. As someone with zero dog in this fight I don't get it. It's clearly owner bias where they are sticking their fingers in their ears and just screaming "la la la la la I don't hear you!!!"
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Plus a bunch of pretty reasonable folks saying things like “I’d rather take a more reliable RB where KW is going and take Charbs later” (paraphrasing) - which, to me, seems totally sensible.
One of the top 2-3 handcuffs in football (sits somewhere among Allen, Allgeier, Monty) and for dynasty it probably does also matter a lot that KWIII is a UFA next year.
That probably impacts redraft, because if I’m the Seahawks, I’m probably going to want to take a long, hard look at Charbs before I make a decision on extending KWIII. The coaches have suggested that Charbonnet will have a larger workload this year. Who knows what that actually means, but it could be that they want to keep KWIII fresh. Or it could be that they like what Charbs brings to the offense. Time will tell on this one. Just like the heaps of KWIII praise, I take their Charbs comments with a little grain of salt, too.
Coaches praising players in the media is all well and good but GMs signing contracts probably look at more than just whether KWIII is one of the best when available. Being available is a pretty important part too. That’s likely all going to come into consideration when it’s time for the Seahawks to make a decision on their backfield next year.
TripItUp
Footballguy
It may depend on the format. Shallow leagues you can take shots at high risk/high reward players like Walker. In deep leagues those risks are more difficult to swallow.
Walker is a high risk/high reward play with an expensive handcuff. This isn't a binary decision...there is nuance involved here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d argue it’s the opposite. In a smaller league format you need hammers. To me that means reliable players. And since everyone seems to agree that Charbs is a bit too expensive to handcuff, that means leaving yourself exposed should something happen to KWIII. Which, to me, makes him less of a “hammer”.
And on that note, I’d suggest that because of the cost to handcuff KWIII, he’s kind of a poor investment in larger league formats as well. More teams = more picks per round = Charbonnet going 1-2 rounds earlier than in the 10-team example.
I think what it boils down to is if you have a high tolerance for risk, KWIII is probably a decent pick at ADP. If I’m taking him I’m probably going to take 2 more RB in the first 5 rounds because I know I’m not going to be able to afford Charbs. Which is a fine strategy for those not risk averse with high picks.
If I’m drafting with a hero RB strategy. I’m ignoring KWIII in the early rounds and stacking WRs. In that context Charbs is one of the highest upside hero or zero RB targets at ADP. He should have a flex-worthy role and his upside should KWIII miss games again is
I don’t think any of that is radical - like you said, there’s nuance involved.
Who is in total denial? I don't recall one person saying there isn't injury risk with Walker.
There is injury risk with any player out there.
What I see is a guy who can produce RB1 numbers (KW was 12th in points per game last year) at a round 4 value.
I can also handcuff him with Charbonnet in round 8. His current real-time ADP is 8.10.
That locks up RB1 numbers week in and week out. I'll take that over gambling on RB2's with question marks in rounds 3-5.
Especially when there is great WR talent available in those rounds.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
From what I’ve been seeing in here it sounds like most KWIII shareholders do not want to spend an 8th round pick on Charbs.
If I end up with a KWIII share I’ll consider that handcuff mandatory.
As much as I love Walker, I would bet they let him walk at the end of the year. Charbonnet will be cheaper and still provides good numbers.
Therefore, you could argue they run Walker into the ground.
Nobody knows for sure.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree. Unfortunately for FF and for KWIII, it may not take 17 games to run him into the ground.
If you draft Walker, you have to draft Charbonnet in my eyes.
habsfan
Footballguy
Took Charbs last year and again this year in redraft. The beauty is, if he starts, I start him. If he doesn't, I sit him - no nail biting, no drama. To this point at least, Seattle has made things pretty easy for fantasy managers to decipher.
That's why it's the perfect handcuff scenario.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I've said this a few times in here, but IF they end up splitting more time than in the past everyone well look back at it and say it was the most telegraphed thing in history.
Everyone loves KW3 for his big play ability, but when he gets the bulk of the work he doesn't break big plays. It has been 971 days since KW3 last had a 50+ yard run.
So you have this dynamic playmaker, that when you give him a feature back workload does not make dynamic plays and can't stay healthy.
Meanwhile behind him you have the best backup RB in the league, that has performed at every opportunity.
Objectively, forgetting fantasy football entirely, it just makes no sense for a coach to roll KW3 out there 25 times a game and watch him get dinged with fading production and a lack of big plays. It makes all the sense in the world to use both of your really good RBs and let the dynamic guy stay fresher and healthier so he can actually make those dynamic plays.
Now that doesn't mean the coaches will do it, and other coaches in the past haven't. But every time KW3 gets hurt or underperforms on efficiency the coaches get more data that makes them changing their mind more likely. And he ended last season hurt (AND was already dealing with an injury in camp this year that the coaches did not seem particularly stoked about) so the coaches may have already made that decision, for all we know.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Your second sentence is where folks take issue, I think... Yes there is injury risk for every player. But the degree varies, sometimes dramatically, which you don't seem to acknowledge.
I am a fan of KWIII, but I place his injury risk notably higher than most RB1s out there - top that off with lots of rational reasons for this coaching staff to split the workload more, along with his sore foot, and their own coach speak this preseason and there is plenty of smoke here to be wary of in terms of KWIII's role on the team. I still think he'll be the 1a, but the odds of Charbs being an actual 1b are higher than ever before IMO.
Agreed with others that no matter when you take KWIII, you better have a plan B in place if Charbs gets sniped from you, which is likely to happen unless you reach for him.
mjb03003
Footballguy
Only issue I have with this logic is that there is a real possibility they form more of an even split and neither is putting up RB1 numbers until/unless the other goes down with an injury. A 60/40 or 50/50 split might make them both solid RB2s or very high end flex plays. It also depends how run-heavy their game plans are and who gets the high value touches (receptions and RZ/goal line carries).
It does seem strange to me that the coaching staff would want him to carry the load when he’s shown that he can’t stay healthy after carrying the load. I mean if they want him available for every game wouldn’t they try to limit his touches?
