FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Last year, when he averaged 3.7ypc, a full half yard behind his counterpart on the same team, he proved he is one of the best pure runners in the whole league?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Last year, when he averaged 3.7ypc, a full half yard behind his counterpart on the same team, he proved he is one of the best pure runners in the whole league?
Scoresman
Footballguy
Also, Klint Kubiak offenses tend to favor using RBs extensively in the passing game, so I could see receptions going up.
The Saints led the league last year with 26% of targets going to RBs. Part of that is due to Kamara, but it's a good sign. I think they also had a low overall pass rate compared to the league average.
The Saints led the league last year with 26% of targets going to RBs. Part of that is due to Kamara, but it's a good sign. I think they also had a low overall pass rate compared to the league average.
This is true but will also be difficult to improve a lot on his per game pace last season because he was actually tied for third in RB targets per game(Kamara was first). This is the main reason his PPG was so high IMO.
No. He proved it long before that.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Never understood why people are bullish on him. The career stats and injury history doesn’t justify it.
Scoresman
Footballguy
He's always been tempting because he offers near bell cow RB status for a zero-RB price or close to it. I got him for single digit price in my auction league last year.
But I'm souring due to the injury history. Unless the coaching staff comes out and says something like they are changing his running style or whatever to hopefully address it.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
He's played 15 games in each of his first two seasons and finished RB15 and RB16 respectively. Last season was mired by injuries but he was RB14 in PPG for those 11 games played. I think there's residual bitterness from folks in general (not saying you specifically) due to him missing time during the fantasy playoff stretch last season (missed 4 of the last 5 games of the season and the one game he played he was a non-factor).
With Walker it's all about what you paid to get him and what contingency you have in place for when he isn't playing. Otherwise he's consistently been a high end RB2 with RB1 spike weeks. I'm still a fan but I get why he isn't everyone's cup of tea.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
The box score says he has missed 10 of 51 games. Seems like another 10 of those he has been banged up. It's a big issue. The reason why I am bullish on him is my personal eye test. When he is healthy the dude just is a really good runner with the ball. Explosive. Tough. Good vision. Just fun to watch. Obviously this offense is drastically different without Metcalf, Lockett and Geno. Gonna be interesting.seeing what adjustments they make. 46 receptions on 53 targets in 11 games is an interesting stat to me with all the available targets they now have.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Leonard Fournette and Miles Sanders were mired by injuries as well.
The reality for me with Walker is just statistics. When these mid-20's RBs start a downward trend they rarely ever turn it around.
Fournette, Miles Sanders, Chris Carson, Antonio Gibson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Robinson, Ronald Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Philip Lindsay, Latavius Murray, Marlon Mack, Jordan Howard, and so many others.
People always want to buy these guys low off a descending couple years, and it almost always ends up being a buy high. It's just SO rare for a guy to be a 24-26 year old RB with multiple years of badly declining stats like this and then turn it around and get even close to where they were (which was only a high RB2 in the first place for Walker).
And if anything KW3's cliff seems even more predictable than most of those guys since he has such competition at the position. It's extremely feasible that he will share time or lose his job this year at which point his value would plummet, with only impending free agency to keep a shred of it alive, before he ends up getting Najee Harris'd or moving to a new team where it never ends up working out (as all of the guys on the list above other than Carson/CEH did).
It's just such a predictable path to irrelevance that so few guys break from, and even when they do it usually comes with fairly middling returns (like David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift...meh).
RB buy lows that work out are almost always guys that are either pre-breakout or just older guys who have lost value without showing any decline, and keep performing longer than expected. It's very rarely ever guys with multiple declining seasons in their mid-20's that suddenly bounce back, and the graveyard of guys that failed to do it is overflowing.
The reality for me with Walker is just statistics. When these mid-20's RBs start a downward trend they rarely ever turn it around.
Fournette, Miles Sanders, Chris Carson, Antonio Gibson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Robinson, Ronald Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Philip Lindsay, Latavius Murray, Marlon Mack, Jordan Howard, and so many others.
People always want to buy these guys low off a descending couple years, and it almost always ends up being a buy high. It's just SO rare for a guy to be a 24-26 year old RB with multiple years of badly declining stats like this and then turn it around and get even close to where they were (which was only a high RB2 in the first place for Walker).
And if anything KW3's cliff seems even more predictable than most of those guys since he has such competition at the position. It's extremely feasible that he will share time or lose his job this year at which point his value would plummet, with only impending free agency to keep a shred of it alive, before he ends up getting Najee Harris'd or moving to a new team where it never ends up working out (as all of the guys on the list above other than Carson/CEH did).
It's just such a predictable path to irrelevance that so few guys break from, and even when they do it usually comes with fairly middling returns (like David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift...meh).
RB buy lows that work out are almost always guys that are either pre-breakout or just older guys who have lost value without showing any decline, and keep performing longer than expected. It's very rarely ever guys with multiple declining seasons in their mid-20's that suddenly bounce back, and the graveyard of guys that failed to do it is overflowing.
Last edited:
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I get it. I'm also not even disagreeing with you entirely, but dudes 24? Is that the age of the cliff now? I would assume your a Charbonnet guy. I like him, but Walkers on field play has solidified his role as the clear lead rb in my personal opinion. Walker just looks more explosive to me. Kinda crazy to think Charbonnet is also 24.
Last edited:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Value cliff, not age cliff.
Most of these guys with a similar path to Walker's end up disappearing from relevance (off the cliff) long before they get old enough for age to matter.
That's I think the biggest mistake people make with RBs in fantasy football. Very few of them ever produce long enough to become irrelevant because of their age. Most of them, especially the ones that have followed KW3's path, become irrelevant for other reasons long before that.
None of the guys I listed in my post value tanked to zero because of their age.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
This would be so much easier if we actually knew when that value cliff begins. Ha ha. So hard to tell. I do think Walkers style and history definitely screams short career.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
There's plenty of RB's who found second-life late in their careers after being effectively left for dead, it may not be as rare as you think:
Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Stephen Davis, Lamar Smith, Priest Holmes, Jonathan Stewart, Raheem Mostert (age 27 breakout, return to prominence age 30), Alvin Kamara (last year after looking cooked in 2023). I'll concede it's harder to find more recent examples and could be due to the slow death of the cowbell RB in the NFL.
I think there are legit reasons to fade Walker (injury history, presence of Charbs, questions of the OL) but I also think he has more juice as a runner than most of the plodders you listed above and Klint Kubiak should bring about an emphasis on running. I see both Walker and Charbs being heavily involved and that timeshare may continue to cap Walker's upside, but I still like him a lot as a player and I still believe we've yet to see his best football. I guess we'll see whether the bulls or the bears are correct as the season plays out. Count me among the bulls.
I think he's an immense big time talent who has improved a great deal in the receiving game but he's been hampered by his own health, extremely poor supporting cast and sharing a little more of the backfield he might in not in other situations. Believe strongly the best is yet to come and his workload and age there is no reason to think he can't offer at least 3 more prime years before we even get to where he might start falling off.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Maybe it’s just me, but the words bullish and buy low seem to conflict.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
It does if the owner your buying him from is bearish.
joey
Footballguy
I mean the examples don't even fit the narrative being spun. Fournette and Sanders didn't decline statistically, they actually had their best years in 3&4 before being traded due to attitude or walking as a FA. Carson was an UDFA and was consistently a 4.3ypc guy until he got injured at 26 and was done. Ronald Jones had the most abysmal rookie season in history and could be bought for a future 3rd round pick the following year, somehow he still managed to hang on and put up a 5.1ypc season in year 3. CEH was an outright bust and lost his job to a 6th round RB after 1 season. Bunch of other no name late rounders and street FA's.
It's ideal if the price is right. I was not down on paying Charbs draft capital when he came out in the two leagues I had Walker and passed him up but once it became evident he looked like a 3 year minimum roster drain/handcuff I traded him for in both of the leagues I have Walker for pretty cheap.
As good as having Walkers handcuff makes me feel I'm still pulling for the day, hopefully next off-season, this spawns into two full time starting RB's. But I also understand that if Walker has a big year this year it could be a bit of a double edged sword as that might make them decide they can't let him go and extend him with idea to let Charbs cruise after 26 instead.
Agreed. I traded Flowers for Walker last season. Just moved Pitts for Charbonnet a couple months ago.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If walker was magically placed in your rookie draft, where are you taking him?
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Honestly I'd put him as the #3 rb. As I continue to dig into those 4 rbs after Jeanty and Hampton that could change, but today I got him at 3 for rbs.
1.3. I imagine I'm higher than almost everyone on him. I think he's a top-10 RB talent and is still only 24.
I think his Yards per Carry is getting grossly overvalued. I don't know that I've ever seen a RB get hindered more by a combo of play calling and OL. He had several games where he had more yards after contact than actual yards. Put him on the Eagles, and he is likely well over 5 YPC.
As for Walker v Charbonnet in the YPC, Charbonnet is a good RB in his own right, but defenses game planned to stop Walker, when he wasn't in there, teams game planned for the pass game. Walker actually shattered the NFL record (only kept since 2006 to be fair) for missed tackles forced per carry last season. The previous record was jointly held by 2014 Lynch and 2020 Chubb. Hiring Kubiak can only help (Grubb was in over his head, running a college offense) as he runs a zone scheme vs a gap scheme. Walker's career YPC is almost .5 YPC higher on zone runs than gap ones.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
The problem is the running back market as a whole. Most are 1a/1b systems unless you are Barkley or Henry. There are a ton of injuries to the whole running back market.
I think KW3 is undervalued because I like his talent and because it is a market thing, not a Walker thing. He has excellent vision for a man of his size and soft hands. He can make good cuts to go with his vision. I'm not concerned with the value cliff because he is valuable to my roster. I deal with running back injuries because they happen all the time. Walker can be a big part of your winning that week when he is on his game. Charbs is a good back, so they use them both, and that is not much different than many teams. A new staff is my only concern, but not a huge concern, because Kubiak can be good for both or favor one over the other, but we won't have that information till we know. Based on the information I know at the moment, he is undervalued compared to the value of my roster. So, since I'm not worried about the injury thing, I default to the talent thing. Injuries happen across the board. Find good depth and deal with the running back injuries. My primary concern is what he can do on the field when given the opportunity. He can do the running back thing pretty dag gone well.
I think KW3 is undervalued because I like his talent and because it is a market thing, not a Walker thing. He has excellent vision for a man of his size and soft hands. He can make good cuts to go with his vision. I'm not concerned with the value cliff because he is valuable to my roster. I deal with running back injuries because they happen all the time. Walker can be a big part of your winning that week when he is on his game. Charbs is a good back, so they use them both, and that is not much different than many teams. A new staff is my only concern, but not a huge concern, because Kubiak can be good for both or favor one over the other, but we won't have that information till we know. Based on the information I know at the moment, he is undervalued compared to the value of my roster. So, since I'm not worried about the injury thing, I default to the talent thing. Injuries happen across the board. Find good depth and deal with the running back injuries. My primary concern is what he can do on the field when given the opportunity. He can do the running back thing pretty dag gone well.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FarFromHome
Footballguy
This.. Coaches want to win. I'm not a Seahawks coach, but I don't think anyone in the facility believes Charbs is a better rb than Walker. I also don't think coaches look past the current season too much. I will say if I'm a coach and this is prolly the last year I got this rb and I think he is my best rb he is about to get some work. All my opinion of course.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Anyone? Does that even have legs to stand on?
Harjiran
Footballguy
Has Charbonnet ever started over Walker except when KW was injured? Honestly asking because I can't remember but I seem to think not. KW gets most of the carries because he can take it to the house at any time - Charbonnet is good at grinding it out and punishing the D. Two good backs with different skillsets, a nice problem for SEA to have, but give me Walker for the upside. To my eye KW looks special with league-leading potential IF healthy - meanwhile there are lots of bangers in the league like Charbonnet imo. Injuries are obviously a concern with KW - I generally don't like to handcuff but this may be a situation where I go for it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yeah that 3.7 looks special.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Thus far Charbs has only started over KW3 when Walker was injured. But that doesn't mean that can't change especially if Walker gets banged up again and they get tired of it, or underperforms again.
Tank Bigsby had never started over Travis Etienne either, until he did. And that one seemed 1000x less likely headed into last year than if Charbs ended up seizing the job in Seattle this year, which I don't think would be a huge shock.
Harjiran
Footballguy
THIS is what looks special to me and it's a dimension that Charbonnet simply doesn't have, not on his best day. That 3.7 is an outlier for KW's career, and last year also represented the lowest number of carries for his career, mainly because he was so banged up. You do you but I'm buying the bounce back this year.
I am a Walker dynasty owner and made it a priority to go out and get Charbs this offseason. That said, I’d still be surprised if he took that job.
I did it because I knew Charbs was a very capable fill-in when KW3 inevitably missed time, and also because this very well could be Walkers final year in Seattle.
I do think that Charbs is very capable of being the lead dog in Seattle, and actually anticipate that to be the case after this season.
I did it because I knew Charbs was a very capable fill-in when KW3 inevitably missed time, and also because this very well could be Walkers final year in Seattle.
I do think that Charbs is very capable of being the lead dog in Seattle, and actually anticipate that to be the case after this season.
Same, where I own one I own the other and I'd not be shocked, I'd be beyond stunned if Charbs took the job. Don't even think it's something discussed or thought of inside their building. Their roles are crystal clear.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I got out on both this off-season.
Agreed. I see no case barring injury that Charbonnet takes that job, Walker is simply a much better RB. I could see a closer split than the last 2 years, which was 78-22 in favor of Walker when Walker was healthy. That could be more like 65-35, with the caveat that Seattle also isn't going to be 30th in rushing attempts with Kubiak calling plays.
2 coaching staffs have decided that Walker is clearly better. I can't see any reason why it would be suddenly different.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It will all be moot after 2025 when Walker has a new zip code.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I do not understand this assertion some are making that it is a closed case that Walker is the better runner. He’s not. Is he the sexier runner? Absolutely. But both game tape and stats support Charbonnet as being a better 1A and that Walker ought to be the 1B.
Walker literally scared no Ds last season. Over 80% of his runs were against light boxes. That bears repeating - there was not a single RB in the NFL that faced a higher rate of light boxes than Walker. No D feared him. None. Now, the SEA run game didn’t scare anyone with Charbonnet in there - 73% of his runs were against light boxes, but Charbonnet averaged 5.0 ypc against light boxes while Walker could only muster 4.1 ypc. That’s substantial, especially when your less productive guy is getting more work.
Here’s the basic difference between Walker and Charbonnet. Walker is a homerun hitter. If he gets a runway to the second level and then cuts downhill to the sideline it’s Katy bar the door. His problem is when he doesn’t get a clean runway, where he is indecisive and starts to dance or extend laterally, which allows the D to flow to the point of attack and outnumber his blockers. His vision is not great and he runs with almost no power. His ypc against stacked boxes was a pathetic 0.4 ypc, over 2 ypc less than Charbonnet.
Charbonnet does not have top lifting speed. But what he does have is reliability, the ability to get something out of nothing, and he can move a pile and navigate trash. He keeps his offense moving forward in good shape and allows for more long drives, which in turn helps chew up clock and rests the D - something Walker does not do reliably.
Charbonnet keeps his offense on or ahead of schedule much more reliably, where Walker may hit that homerun but leaves his offense behind the chains way too often. Now, if Mahomes or Allen is your QB then they can recover from being behind schedule because of their quick strike playmaking ability downfield or their open field running in busted plays. But if Geno Smith or Sam Darnold is your QB then you need to keep them in positive down and distance situations or the offense is going to start failing and your D is going to be on the field a lot more.
SEA - IMNSHO - has been using their two RBs exactly backwards. Charbonnet ought to be doing the heavy lifting and Walker ought to be used as the lightning part of thunder and lightning. Let Charbonnet keep the O in good spots and then hit them with Walker’s big play ability when the D has been softened up. As a bonus, Walker getting less work is going to hopefully increase his health throughout the season instead of pounding him as a CoP type back with heavier work load game after game - which he isn’t built for and is clearly a concern with Walker. Both guys may actually be more productive in this scenario, and given the talent maybe more productive by a lot.
I watch SEA’s O and get so frustrated. It’s like they’re using Biabatuka as their lead back and feathering in Fred Lane - with both RBs in SEA being significantly more talented than those guys - and are wasting the complimentary talents of both.
Walker literally scared no Ds last season. Over 80% of his runs were against light boxes. That bears repeating - there was not a single RB in the NFL that faced a higher rate of light boxes than Walker. No D feared him. None. Now, the SEA run game didn’t scare anyone with Charbonnet in there - 73% of his runs were against light boxes, but Charbonnet averaged 5.0 ypc against light boxes while Walker could only muster 4.1 ypc. That’s substantial, especially when your less productive guy is getting more work.
Here’s the basic difference between Walker and Charbonnet. Walker is a homerun hitter. If he gets a runway to the second level and then cuts downhill to the sideline it’s Katy bar the door. His problem is when he doesn’t get a clean runway, where he is indecisive and starts to dance or extend laterally, which allows the D to flow to the point of attack and outnumber his blockers. His vision is not great and he runs with almost no power. His ypc against stacked boxes was a pathetic 0.4 ypc, over 2 ypc less than Charbonnet.
Charbonnet does not have top lifting speed. But what he does have is reliability, the ability to get something out of nothing, and he can move a pile and navigate trash. He keeps his offense moving forward in good shape and allows for more long drives, which in turn helps chew up clock and rests the D - something Walker does not do reliably.
Charbonnet keeps his offense on or ahead of schedule much more reliably, where Walker may hit that homerun but leaves his offense behind the chains way too often. Now, if Mahomes or Allen is your QB then they can recover from being behind schedule because of their quick strike playmaking ability downfield or their open field running in busted plays. But if Geno Smith or Sam Darnold is your QB then you need to keep them in positive down and distance situations or the offense is going to start failing and your D is going to be on the field a lot more.
SEA - IMNSHO - has been using their two RBs exactly backwards. Charbonnet ought to be doing the heavy lifting and Walker ought to be used as the lightning part of thunder and lightning. Let Charbonnet keep the O in good spots and then hit them with Walker’s big play ability when the D has been softened up. As a bonus, Walker getting less work is going to hopefully increase his health throughout the season instead of pounding him as a CoP type back with heavier work load game after game - which he isn’t built for and is clearly a concern with Walker. Both guys may actually be more productive in this scenario, and given the talent maybe more productive by a lot.
I watch SEA’s O and get so frustrated. It’s like they’re using Biabatuka as their lead back and feathering in Fred Lane - with both RBs in SEA being significantly more talented than those guys - and are wasting the complimentary talents of both.
Last edited:
FarFromHome
Footballguy
The yearly Walker vs Charbs debate means it's getting closer to football season. Ha ha
Maybe, but point was to make it clear that I'm not saying I'd be surprised if Walker was not the starter because of my own personal benefit/interest. I'm good either way.
Separating from one another is the ideal outcome I look forward to but am not assuming it's after 2025. Hoping, not assuming. A lot up in the air on that yet.
jtd13
Footballguy
I love this narrative. It's how I got Walker for a single 26 1st this offseason.
Yes. Show me one clip or story where even one coach suggested Charbs was better.
Both coaching staffs have been very clear who they believe is the #1RB.
warpig33
Footballguy
Kinda sounds like Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Allen is a huge beast of a RB and he punishes defenses. Hall is the homerun threat.
Big Nate
Footballguy
No, 24 is not old and KWIII has a number of good seasons left. If you are a contender and need a RB he's worth a flyer - very underrated and undervalued. The injuries are an issue but then its the same for every RB. The only concern is cost. If you buy KWIII now you likely get 3 years at least - this year his 24th, his 25th and 26th. Then you can sell him after that and recoup some of your initial cost.
KWIII has a great opportunity in this new system.
Among 45 qualifying backs, Walker ranked third in first downs per route run, sixth in target per route run rate, and sixth in receiving yards per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Add all of that on top of leading the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt, and Walker could be a league-winner in 2025.
Big Nate
Footballguy
His value cliff already hit and he's becoming a buy. He's going to be playing for 3 more years and in dynasty that is an eternity.
Also he's immensely more talented than nearly all those players you listed above.
As for a guy like Fournette, he produced an RB7 and RB15 season his last 2 seasons including 70+ catches his last year (great for PPR). Insane value if you picked him up "after his value cliff hit". This is what you can do with KWII if you need a starting RB or even a high end flex play if you are already set at RB.
We play fantasy to win and to win you need points. KWIII can provide those points. As mentioned above, if you have KWIII you can likely acquire Charbs for a reasonable price here and lock up that backfield and be set.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Hall is a better RB.
