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RB Leonard Fournette, FA (2 Viewers)

2017 NFL Draft Live Analysis: Fantasy Football Values Round 1

Excerpt:

Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Fournette, RB – Despite my disdain for taking a running back while being another year from truly contending, the Jaguars jump in and take Fournette. Only Joe Mixon ranked higher on my list given Fournette’s amazing combination of size and speed. People also fail to realize that Fournette is a solid pass-catcher and a great run blocker, giving him the ability to be a three-down running back. There are questions around Blake Bortles as the franchise quarterback, but when it comes to Fantasy Football, Bortles and this offense is valuable. In fact, this points to the talk about taking the load off Bortles. Fournette can easily match Jordan Howard’s rookie campaign, which makes him a Top 10 option in redraft and a second round pick.
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Jaguars selected LSU RB Leonard Fournette with the No. 4 overall pick of the 2017 NFL draft.

Needing to upgrade their running game to help embattled starter Blake Bortles, the Jaguars have been linked with Fournette for most of the pre-draft process. Standing 6-foot-1, 240 pounds, Fournette arrived in Baton Rouge as the nation’s No. 1 recruit and met expectations with a career 616-3,830-40 (6.22 YPC) rushing line, turning pro as LSU’s all-time leader in yards per carry and No. 2 in yards from scrimmage per game (155.7). A hulking downhill runner with 4.51 speed, Fournette’s limitations come in the passing game, where he dropped 8-of-48 catchable targets as a Tiger. He also battled a recurring left ankle injury in 2016, suffering repeated setbacks and missing 6-of-13 games. When healthy, Fournette has drawn comparisons to Bo Jackson and Herschel Walker as a size-speed freak. His arrival is bad news for Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon with Ivory projecting to take the biggest hit.
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Pipes said:
Much better landing spot than the Jets or 49ers.  Happy as a 1.01 owner.
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Don't know if I agree with this. Jags were pretty ineffective running the ball last year. Was that due to Ivory and Yeldon being that terrible or is the Marrone/Hackett scheme and O-line/Bortles combo?  Marrone/Hackett have had some success in the past with Buffalo, but they were running a timeshare with Fred Jackson and Spiller, who both were accomplished in the screen game. This is a different stable of RBs.

At the end of it Fournette is a beast, but this isn't a slam dunk landing spot for him in my opinion. There are two other 220+ lb RBs on that roster who struggled here, albeit for varied and different reasons.  

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Don't know if I agree with this. Jags were pretty ineffective running the ball last year. Was that due to Ivory and Yeldon being that terrible or is the Marrone/Hackett scheme and O-line/Bortles combo?  Marrone/Hackett have had some success in the past with Buffalo, but they were running a timeshare with Fred Jackson and Spiller, who both were accomplished in the screen game. This is a different stable of RBs.

At the end of it Fournette is a beast, but this isn't a slam dunk landing spot for him in my opinion. There are two other 220+ lb RBs on that roster who struggled here, albeit for varied and different reasons.  
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Gonna be on Fournette. He'll have plenty of opportunity. Defense should be good and theyre going to want to drop Bortles attempts. Marrone was an o-line coach so have to think that will develop in time. I dont really see a better landing spot. Everyone knew he was going in the top 10 so unless a team traded up, this was probably the best option among the teams who had a shot at him.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Don't know if I agree with this. Jags were pretty ineffective running the ball last year. Was that due to Ivory and Yeldon being that terrible or is the Marrone/Hackett scheme and O-line/Bortles combo?  Marrone/Hackett have had some success in the past with Buffalo, but they were running a timeshare with Fred Jackson and Spiller, who both were accomplished in the screen game. This is a different stable of RBs.

At the end of it Fournette is a beast, but this isn't a slam dunk landing spot for him in my opinion. There are two other 220+ lb RBs on that roster who struggled here, albeit for varied and different reasons.  
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I'm with you. Others loved Jags as potential spot pre-draft. I hated it then and hate it more now. Really hope he goes 1.1 and I'll take whoever is best out of McCaff/Cook/Mixon at 1.2. IMO Bortles has to really take a step up for Fournette to be a top tier RB1. And I'd rather not gamble on that. 

 
Any question that he's the 1.01 if Cook or Mixon goes to Green Bay to start tonight?  Or Philly or Indy in the next 12 picks?

 
Bortles will be gone soon if he doesnt improve, they havent picked up his 5th year option. Interested to see what happens tonight because there are some very nice Oline prospects still available which would help address that concern and only 2 teams pick in front of them. If they got Lamp (my guess is Sea takes Robinson) that could really help out their Oline issues.

 
If you believe in his talent, I don't think it's a terrible spot. Yeah their run game has been trash for years, but I actually don't think their front office is that inept anymore and he'll easily be the main man in their backfield.

I've never been sky high on Fournette and I think Mixon could definitely be the better NFL talent, but I think if you stay in the 1.01 spot in your rookie draft then you almost have to take him based on the draft pedigree and name recognition. Either that or trade down and get some extra value.

 
tombonneau said:
I'm with you. Others loved Jags as potential spot pre-draft. I hated it then and hate it more now. Really hope he goes 1.1 and I'll take whoever is best out of McCaff/Cook/Mixon at 1.2. IMO Bortles has to really take a step up for Fournette to be a top tier RB1. And I'd rather not gamble on that. 
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Just curious which top 10 team spot would've been better and why?  I just think, other than Carolina, the other teams are so inept on offense Fournette would've constantly faced 8 and 9 man fronts.  That shouldn't happen in Jacksonville.  And Carolina with Newton stealing a bunch of rushing TD's wasn't ideal either.

 
Fournettes projections would look much better if Jacksonville drafts one of the interior linemen at the top of round 2 - Lamp or Feeney.  

 
As I posted similar commentary in the McCaffery thread with him landing in CAR, IMO, JAX was probably the worst place for Fournette to end up. That is based not on his abilities but more on the production the Jaguars have gotten out of their RBs. Here are the fantasy scoring totals for 0 ppr and 1 ppr scoring for all 32 NFL teams over the past three seasons:

0 1
NOS 1103 NOS 1482
ATL 1071 ATL 1362
DAL 1035 NEP 1302
NEP 1035 PHI 1302
PHI 1023 PIT 1291
PIT 1021 BUF 1249
BUF 1001 DAL 1249
CIN 963 BAL 1215
SEA 916 DET 1199
KCC 906 CIN 1194
WAS 904 OAK 1188
BAL 894 MIN 1142
MIN 893 WAS 1137
OAK 891 LAC 1124
DEN 886 NYJ 1122
HOU 886 CHI 1115
NYJ 880 SEA 1105
MIA 874 KCC 1101
DET 862 MIA 1097
GBP 860 HOU 1095
CHI 833 GBP 1090
LAC 831 DEN 1070
NYG 825 NYG 1065
ARI 804 IND 1028
TEN 802 TBB 1019
TBB 797 TEN 1015
IND 790 CLE 993
CLE 780 ARI 959
SFO 754 SFO 952
CAR 733 LAR 922
LAR 711 CAR 880
JAX 643 JAX 862


JAX is smack dab in the basement in both categories. Essentially, the Jacksonville RB corps has scored at 58% of what the Saints backfield has. The Jags should see some better numbers by using a top pick to address an area of need, but Fournette has to climb the proverbial Mount Everest to put up decent fantasy production. Jacksonville still has Yeldon and Ivory, and if things turn into a RBBC, splitting a small piece of pie multiple ways is not a good thing for Fournette's fantasy outlook.

 
Anarchy99 said:
As I posted similar commentary in the McCaffery thread with him landing in CAR, IMO, JAX was probably the worst place for Fournette to end up. That is based not on his abilities but more on the production the Jaguars have gotten out of their RBs. Here are the fantasy scoring totals for 0 ppr and 1 ppr scoring for all 32 NFL teams over the past three seasons:

0 1
NOS 1103 NOS 1482
ATL 1071 ATL 1362
DAL 1035 NEP 1302
NEP 1035 PHI 1302
PHI 1023 PIT 1291
PIT 1021 BUF 1249
BUF 1001 DAL 1249
CIN 963 BAL 1215
SEA 916 DET 1199
KCC 906 CIN 1194
WAS 904 OAK 1188
BAL 894 MIN 1142
MIN 893 WAS 1137
OAK 891 LAC 1124
DEN 886 NYJ 1122
HOU 886 CHI 1115
NYJ 880 SEA 1105
MIA 874 KCC 1101
DET 862 MIA 1097
GBP 860 HOU 1095
CHI 833 GBP 1090
LAC 831 DEN 1070
NYG 825 NYG 1065
ARI 804 IND 1028
TEN 802 TBB 1019
TBB 797 TEN 1015
IND 790 CLE 993
CLE 780 ARI 959
SFO 754 SFO 952
CAR 733 LAR 922
LAR 711 CAR 880
JAX 643 JAX 862


JAX is smack dab in the basement in both categories. Essentially, the Jacksonville RB corps has scored at 58% of what the Saints backfield has. The Jags should see some better numbers by using a top pick to address an area of need, but Fournette has to climb the proverbial Mount Everest to put up decent fantasy production. Jacksonville still has Yeldon and Ivory, and if things turn into a RBBC, splitting a small piece of pie multiple ways is not a good thing for Fournette's fantasy outlook.
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Maybe that's why they spent the 4th overall pick on a RB?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Maybe that's why they spent the 4th overall pick on a RB?
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Again, I posted that "the Jags should see some better numbers by using a top pick to address an area of need," so we are in agreement there. But they tried to address the RB spot by drafting TJ Yeldon with the 36th pick in the 2015 draft. They also signed Ivory to a 5-year, $32 million contract last off season. I never get to watch the Jaguars play, so again I can't judge things with my own eyes. Were Yeldon and Ivory wasted pick ups and the Jags OL and play calling had nothing to do with the team's less than stellar RB production?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Again, I posted that "the Jags should see some better numbers by using a top pick to address an area of need," so we are in agreement there. But they tried to address the RB spot by drafting TJ Yeldon with the 36th pick in the 2015 draft. They also signed Ivory to a 5-year, $32 million contract last off season. I never get to watch the Jaguars play, so again I can't judge things with my own eyes. Were Yeldon and Ivory wasted pick ups and the Jags OL and play calling had nothing to do with the team's less than stellar RB production?
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I was never a big Yeldon fan as a prospect and he's shown to be a mediocre professional. As a Jets fan, I did have an appreciation for Ivory, but as usual he failed to stay healthy last season.  I do not know how Ivory's contract is structured but I would not be surprised if he's released if it makes sense economically.

Play calling? Seems irrelevant with a new staff in town. O-line? Valid concern, but hopefully they land Lamp in round 2 and/or improve as a unit with experience.

It's just that looking at a three year sample, where the guy you are looking to project wasn't there, just doesn't seem all that useful. If the o-line improves, and the young defense steps up a bit my guess is that Coughlin and Marrone would love to build a team that relies on the running game. It will depend on if Fournette truly is a talent worthy of the 4th overall pick of course, but if he is I doubt TJ Yeldon and Toby Gerhardt's failures really matter much.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I was never a big Yeldon fan as a prospect and he's shown to be a mediocre professional. As a Jets fan, I did have an appreciation for Ivory, but as usual he failed to stay healthy last season.  I do not know how Ivory's contract is structured but I would not be surprised if he's released if it makes sense economically.

Play calling? Seems irrelevant with a new staff in town. O-line? Valid concern, but hopefully they land Lamp in round 2 and/or improve as a unit with experience.

It's just that looking at a three year sample, where the guy you are looking to project wasn't there, just doesn't seem all that useful. If the o-line improves, and the young defense steps up a bit my guess is that Coughlin and Marrone would love to build a team that relies on the running game. It will depend on if Fournette truly is a talent worthy of the 4th overall pick of course, but if he is I doubt TJ Yeldon and Toby Gerhardt's failures really matter much.
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Which spot would be better for a rookie to go to (assuming primary RB duties)? Going to a team like DAL or OAK that have put up good RB numbers, scored a ton of points, and fielding good blocking OL's? Or going to teams like CAR of JAX that haven't put up great RB numbers, have had problems scoring points, and may have mediocre OL's?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Which spot would be better for a rookie to go to (assuming primary RB duties)? Going to a team like DAL or OAK that have put up good RB numbers, scored a ton of points, and fielding good blocking OL's? Or going to teams like CAR of JAX that haven't put up great RB numbers, have had problems scoring points, and may have mediocre OL's?
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Are you really asking me if it would be better to go to one of the two teams that have the best offensive lines in the league or a team that doesn't?

Let me ask you this: Of the three year span you are looking at for Dallas would you have preferred to have had DeMarco Murray (2014), Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden (2015) or Ezekiel Elliot (2016) as your RB1?   

 
Anarchy99 said:
Which spot would be better for a rookie to go to (assuming primary RB duties)? Going to a team like DAL or OAK that have put up good RB numbers, scored a ton of points, and fielding good blocking OL's? Or going to teams like CAR of JAX that haven't put up great RB numbers, have had problems scoring points, and may have mediocre OL's?
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Why is it necessary to talk about what the better spots might have been? The question is "can he perform better than the guys he's replacing" where he did go. He didn't go to Dallas. He didn't go to Oakland. If he did go there then people would be moaning and groaning that he was stuck behind someone else.

Fournette is simply far more talented than Yeldon/Ivory so the answer should clearly be yes.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Again, I posted that "the Jags should see some better numbers by using a top pick to address an area of need," so we are in agreement there. But they tried to address the RB spot by drafting TJ Yeldon with the 36th pick in the 2015 draft. They also signed Ivory to a 5-year, $32 million contract last off season. I never get to watch the Jaguars play, so again I can't judge things with my own eyes. Were Yeldon and Ivory wasted pick ups and the Jags OL and play calling had nothing to do with the team's less than stellar RB production?
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Might it be that the Jags just passed too much (due to being behind) to get the RBs any decent, consistent volume of carries?  I'm asking, not being smarmy.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Which spot would be better for a rookie to go to (assuming primary RB duties)? Going to a team like DAL or OAK that have put up good RB numbers, scored a ton of points, and fielding good blocking OL's? Or going to teams like CAR of JAX that haven't put up great RB numbers, have had problems scoring points, and may have mediocre OL's?
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Thing is, when you're a Top 10 talent, you're generally not going to be drafted by a good football team. So teams like Dallas and Oakland were never in play to begin with.

Dallas and Zeke was a rarity last year, they ended up there after Romo went down the year before. But you don't usually see a top offense with a top 5 pick.

 
Skoo said:
Thing is, when you're a Top 10 talent, you're generally not going to be drafted by a good football team. So teams like Dallas and Oakland were never in play to begin with.

Dallas and Zeke was a rarity last year, they ended up there after Romo went down the year before. But you don't usually see a top offense with a top 5 pick.
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Exactly. Generally if you're a top 10 pick, you're going to a lousy team. You just have to hope they have some redeeming qualities to help them succeed.

 
Anyone else catch that clip before the draft tonight of Coughlin calling Fournette?

Every other coach is "great to have you, we're excited, enjoy this moment, blah blah blah".

Coughlin: (paraphrasing) "You know why we brought you hear right? To put that ball in the end zone. We need guys who can score, got it?"

Basically meaningless, but funny and makes me want to draft him more.

 
Based on sheer volume and the fact that's he's a better pass catcher than people give him credit for, I'd put his floor at 1400 total yards and 7 TDs.

 
Previous regime signed ivory, drafted Yeldon, signed gerhart, drafted shoelace, so maybe they weren't very good at judging oline man or rbs or something. 

 
Just curious of any other RBs who had no real game experience catching the ball or running screens/swing passes/routes out of the backfield who transitioned into reliable pass catchers in the NFL.  Does anyone know of any others? I can't name any off the top of my head. I'm not bashing Fournette, simply curious from a PPR perspective.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I was never a big Yeldon fan as a prospect and he's shown to be a mediocre professional. As a Jets fan, I did have an appreciation for Ivory, but as usual he failed to stay healthy last season.  I do not know how Ivory's contract is structured but I would not be surprised if he's released if it makes sense economically.

Play calling? Seems irrelevant with a new staff in town. O-line? Valid concern, but hopefully they land Lamp in round 2 and/or improve as a unit with experience.

It's just that looking at a three year sample, where the guy you are looking to project wasn't there, just doesn't seem all that useful. If the o-line improves, and the young defense steps up a bit my guess is that Coughlin and Marrone would love to build a team that relies on the running game. It will depend on if Fournette truly is a talent worthy of the 4th overall pick of course, but if he is I doubt TJ Yeldon and Toby Gerhardt's failures really matter much.
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I like Fournette and am not appalled with the situation (certainly not enough to drop him), but it is at least concerning.

Yeldon is no superstar but he looks decent enough to me.  Better than the production they got out of him.

More concerning is Ivory's struggles because he is a known asset.  Yes he had injuries but like you mentioned, that's par for the course with him and he's always been a lot better than this in spite of it.  I feel pretty willing to attribute his outlier worst season of his career to the team he was on that year.  No guarantees, but it looked that way to me. 

Fournette is certainly better than both but we're obviously looking for a lot more than more than just some improvement when our baseline is 800 yards rushing at 3.7ypc like those two combined for last year.

 
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Rookie_Whisperer said:
Just curious of any other RBs who had no real game experience catching the ball or running screens/swing passes/routes out of the backfield who transitioned into reliable pass catchers in the NFL.  Does anyone know of any others? I can't name any off the top of my head. I'm not bashing Fournette, simply curious from a PPR perspective.
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No experience?  This is overblown.  He averaged one less catch per game than Christian McCaffrey last year.  

Anyway, to answer your question Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles come to mind immediately.  Rice actually caught fewer passes in college than Fournette did despite playing 6 more games.  Charles caught a few more but fewer per game.

Arian Foster caught the same per game in college as Fournette.  Lamar Miller.  Melvin Gordon.  Frank Gore.  Devonta Freeman.

Bottom line, a lot of guys.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
No experience?  This is overblown.  He averaged one less catch per game than Christian McCaffrey last year.  

Anyway, to answer your question Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles come to mind immediately.  Rice actually caught fewer passes in college than Fournette did despite playing 6 more games.  Charles caught a few more but fewer per game.

Arian Foster caught the same per game in college as Fournette.  Lamar Miller.  Melvin Gordon.  Frank Gore.  Devonta Freeman.

Bottom line, a lot of guys.
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Point taken but it also matters what you do with it after the catch that gets your number called again on those plays.  I don't know a single person who thinks Fournette is as good in the pass game as McCaffrey. Total catches aren't what I'm referring to here, and I wouldn't call Lamar Miller reliable in the passing game, at least not immediately. Melvin Gordon either and it's not like they really accel when their number is called on those plays. They might catch their share now but don't really do much with it when given the chance.  Charles, Rice, Freeman, all had to be good in the pass/screen game because they were not going to make a living running between the tackles in the NFL so they were coached up and had a year to sit back and watch/learn. Hate to break it to you though, nearly every scout thinks he has a ton of work to do in the passing game and not every player gets tagged with that.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Point taken but it also matters what you do with it after the catch that gets your number called again on those plays.  I don't know a single person who thinks Fournette is as good in the pass game as McCaffrey. Total catches aren't what I'm referring to here, and I wouldn't call Lamar Miller reliable in the passing game, at least not immediately. Melvin Gordon either and it's not like they really accel when their number is called on those plays. They might catch their share now but don't really do much with it when given the chance.  Charles, Rice, Freeman, all had to be good in the pass/screen game because they were not going to make a living running between the tackles in the NFL so they were coached up and had a year to sit back and watch/learn. Hate to break it to you though, nearly every scout thinks he has a ton of work to do in the passing game and not every player gets tagged with that.
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So you ask a (slanted) question and when you get an answer that goes against  the "point" you were trying to make you double down?

Also you really think Charles, Rice and Freeman can't or couldn't run between the tackles? That's a surprising take.

 
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