Cjw_55106
Footballguy
I'm all for guys getting what they are worth, but if 15M isnt enough to be "respected", go away.
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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
starks
Footballguy
Especially for the RB position. But I get that this is his last chance at a large multiyear contract. I think this will work itself out this offseaons. He is 26 and has 2 or 3 elite years left which is the window with this team.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
uffPuffPass:
steelers1080
Footballguy
They're going to franchise him and try to resign him. If they can it will reduce his cap hit and pays him more up front, best for both parties.
higgins
Footballguy
Let's pretend he's correct -- following are how well teams are projected to be cap-wise as of now (with bolded making most sense cap-wise and need-wise):
San Francisco 49ers - Hyde's a FA but after the G-trade they'll first to look into keeping him long-term.
Cleveland Browns - Assuming they draft a rookie QB they'll have tons of space to get all kinds of FA's. Bell is also from Columbus. Haley going to be there too?
Indianapolis Colts - Gore gone? Another FA player with space.
New York Jets - Another player in FA.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Another player in FA.
Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans - Hhmm
Washington Redskins - Assuming Cousins leaves, they could be a player.
Tennessee Titans
Detroit Lions - Hhmm, Bell did go to MSU
Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears - Hhmm
Cincinnati Bengals
League Average
New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos - Assuming they draft a rookie QB, spending on Bell while their defense still has its legs makes sense.
Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders - Hhmm, make a splash for Bell this year just as they're getting ready to move to Vegas in 2019?
New York Giants - Not much space but if they can protect Eli, they'd have skill positioners galore and a semi-stout defense.
Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons
Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs
Not an earth shattering analysis considering I "narrowed it down" to 12 teams but the CLE option does seem interesting....
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
They are going to Franchise tag him this year. And Transition tag him next year if they haven't reached a long term agreement. Which will be around 11-12 million. Both the team and the Bell wont want him to play under the transition tag and prefer an actual contract. But thus is the framework of the NFL.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
This is an interesting take that I have not heard before...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not that it means much but Bell was also a Jets' fan growing up. However, I fully expect that he'll be staying with the Steelers.
Pretty sure this is not correct. The transition tag, similar to the franchise tag, requires a salary equal to the average of the top-10 salaries at that position (top-5 for the franchise), but, and also similar to the franchise tag, if the transition tag salary is less than 120% of the previous year's salary, they would have to pay the 120% salary.
So, if the Steelers franchised Bell in 18, and wanted to transition him in 19, the 2019 salary would be $17.4 million, not "around 11-12 million." Also, other teams would be free to offer Bell a contract, that the Steelers could choose to match. However, if they decided not to match, they would get NO COMPENSATION for Bell leaving.
For Pittsburgh to guarantee Bell is a Steeler (or not playing in the NFL) for the next two seasons, they would be forced to pay him $31.9 million. To me, that means Bell won't be signing a contract that has less than $32 million in guaranteed money. Bell has said he will retire if they franchise him. I think that is unlikely, but I could see him sitting out the first 6 games before he signs. That would severely hamstring Pittsburgh, financially, because (unless I'm mistaken, and if I am, I'm sure someone can correct me), as long as the Steelers have applied the franchise tag to Bell, they have to keep that amount of cap space available if/when he signs the tender. So, if he decides to sit out 6 games, then play the last 10 to count the season, they will have to play almost 40% of the season with a cap that is basically $14.5 million smaller than the other 31 NFL teams. To free up that cap money, they'd have to rescind the tag, which would make Bell an UFA immediately.
For any Pittsburgh homers who would complain that this is a player being selfish, greedy, etc, etc, I'll echo the previous posters point "this is the framework of the NFL." If it's OK for the Steelers to use the tag system to their benefit, it should be OK for Bell to, as well.
I felt the same, but recently, I'm having different thoughts.
The Steelers leaking that Bell was late for the walk-through & playoff game is similar to some of the noise around the Brown negotiations last year, but at the same time, Bell turned down a 5 year deal that averaged $12M/year with $30 M in guarantees before last year. That would indicate that he would need a larger deal than that to sign. I'm not sure I would expect the Steelers to go with a higher average salary, more guaranteed money, and/or guaranteed money in the last years of the contract (reportedly one of the sticking points for Bell last year).
As I posted previously, I could see Bell making it a completely business decision & holding out for 6 weeks of the season, and not just TC. It would cost him $2.4M in salary, but it is the only real leverage he has. If he does that, the Steelers might just rescind the tag, because if he sits out 6 weeks, then takes several weeks to get into "football shape," you're talking about 1/2 the season, and if they don't do well in the half a season, it might turn into a lost season & a waste of money to pay him franchise tag money for a 1/2 season where they hurt their playoff shot.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I think Ben would throw a fit if they let him sit for the first 6 weeks, and risked a "lost" season. He threatens to retire every year, and this year he said he is sticking around...presumably because he sees a window of opportunity to win another championship. He wont stand for a "lost" season. I understand that he doesnt call the shots, but it would be ignorant to think that he does not have influence. They cannot tie up all that money in a player who may not be fully ready to produce until the season is half over. Either sign a long term deal, or let him walk and free up the salary to go get Hyde, Crowell, or another competent RB that will cost a lot less and free up a lot of money for other positions of need. Like possibly replacing Shazier.
ETA - Bell is a spectacular and an absolute difference maker. I own him in my only 2 dynasties, and appreciate how special he is both as a runner and a receiver...but $12M/yr is a ####load for a RB. I think he was overvaluing the position and possibly overplayed his hand when he declined that offer. That seemed to me like a very solid offer. I guess time will tell. If he ends up with more money, and thats his only priority, then maybe he played it right. $12M to stay a Steeler for life and seriously contend for a ring or two seemed like an opportunity I would have expected him to be more open to.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If he sits out six weeks (which will never happen, RBs shelf lives are too short to give up that much money) - what good would it do him if the Steelers rescinded the tag? After they extend the franchise tag offer there is a window to work out a long term deal but I believe there's a cut off point (mid July?) where no long term deal is allowed to be discussed or signed and the player must either sign the tender or sit out. So he would make no money in 2018? I can't see him giving up $12-14MM the tag would offer him.
Maybe I am missing a few players but I only remember two players ever really sitting out regular season games - one was like 25 years ago (Emmitt Smith) and the other was Vincent Jackson. It's hard to give up paychecks in the NFL where you have a limited window to make money.
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Godsbrother
Footballguy
Bell's argument is that he is a great receiver as well as a runner. While that is certainly true I don't think that NFL teams think that way.
Bell made $12.1M last season, the next highest paid RB made $8.3 so I think he was paid fairly but the only thing that matters is what Bell thinks. If I am the Steelers I try to lock Bell up for 3-4 years with an average of $13M. He probably doesn't bite so If he declines then I would probably throw the transition tag on him, let him test the FA market and be prepared to draft a RB high cause the UFA RBs this year aren't so good.
I am a little worried about Bell holding out for 6 weeks if he is franchised.
With regards to the bolded, if he sits out 6 weeks, he still collects a little over $9 M. It's not like he won't get paid. He'd be giving up like $5.5 M. He'd be doing that in the effort to get a larger contract that (in his mind) is fair. Last year he gave up a contract that had $30M in guarantees to play for $12.1 M. So, he gave up $18M in order to prove a point and get what he feels he deserves. So, "will never happen" seems inaccurate, when (although all situations are different), it DID happen, with THIS player, in THIS situation, just one year ago.
With regards to the underlined, I believe you are mistaken. There is a cut off point to negotiate a long-term deal in mid-July. After that, the tag can be rescinded, making the player a UFA immediately (the team can rescind the tag at any point, before or after the mid-July long term negotiation deadline, as long as the player hasn't yet signed the tender)or the player can sign the tender at any point. IF the player signs the tender before the beginning of the regular season, he gets the full salary, and can't be fined for missing OTAs, TC, or pre-season games (as he wasn't technically under contract at the time of those events); this is what Bell did last off-season-he waited until after TC was over, received his full salary & couldn't be fined for missing TC. If the player chooses, he can refuse to sign the tender for up to 6 weeks of the regular season, sign it, accumulate 10 games, and be credited for a full season, but only receive the pro-rated amount of his salary (in bell's case, that would be 10/16 of $14,544,000, or $9.09M). As I posted earlier, however, the Steelers would have to leave $14.54M of open cap space, because they'd have to have cap room to sign bell. As each week wore on, they'd gain a little more cap room, but it would be a big financial impediment having to assemble a team with $14.5 less in cap space than the other NFL franchises. Bell would be sacrificing, at most, $5.5 M, but the Steelers would be more negatively impacted by the impact on their cap. As I said, this is Bell's biggest leverage, and it wouldn't be surprising for him to utilize it.
I don't think Ben throwing a fit would impact anything (unless you mean his fit would make Steeler management change the way they handle these situations). Why should/would Bell feel obligated to take less than what he thinks he's worth because Ben is throwing a fit? When Ben got his new contract in 2015, he didn't take less than what he thought he was worth; he became the 2nd highest paid-QB, with the highest (at the time) guaranteed money, and the highest NFL contract over the next 3 years. If he wants to throw a fit, he could throw a fit over the fact that he could have taken less to help the team, but he has no grounds to argue Bell should do so.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not really. He would be giving up money he would never get back. Not signing long term to take the franchise tag money does not preclude him from getting that money back the following year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You think the Steelers losing $14.5MM in cap space is a bigger impact than Bell as an individual losing $5.5MM that he can never get back - while getting another year older which decreases his market value? I think we would just need to agree to disagree on that.
Sitting out 6 weeks doesn't preclude him from getting that money back in the form of a larger contract, either. It works the same as your argument.
He gets offered a deal like last year: $31M guaranteed, turns it down. Sits out first 6 weeks, gets $5.5M less than if he played full season. in 2019, the Steelers might be less likely to transition/franchise him again, knowing he might sit out the first 6 games again. He gets an offer from them that gives him $36.5 in guaranteed money. He's gotten that money the following year.
Fixed.
He can holdout 10 weeks and accrue a season, not 6.
Would he do it at the cost of almost $1M a game? That's what we don't know but Duane Brown gave half that up per game this year and Bell might conclude that less wear and tear this year may not help him get all the money back he would lose sitting out but some of it. I for one think he'll sit out game(s) if he is franchise, just no idea how many.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't see it working that way - his bargaining power as a RB actually decreases with each passing year. He would be throwing away $5.5MM
I'm not saying there's no way I could be wrong but I'm pretty confident the worst case scenario (if the Steelers franchise tag him again) is him sitting out camp again and showing up a week before the season. Throwing away $5.5MM, and possibly more, seems like a terrible financial decision.
Do I think a franchise that is already tight up against the cap would be more hurt by losing $14.5M in cap space than a player who has already shown a willingness to give up $18M would be hurt by giving up $5.5 M? Yes I do. We can agree to disagree, if you'd like.
But you're not applying your logic equally. He gave up $18M last year. Even if the bargaining power decreased each year, he has already shown a willingness to give up that much money, it is reasonable to assume, he'd be willing to give up $5.5 this year, because he believes he is worth, and can get, more.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Bell sort of strikes me as a moron. I never root for injury or want anyone to get injured, but he almost deserves to get injured in sort of stupid bathtub incident or something and never earn another cent.
The amount of risk he put himself through this year playing with like 400 touches to MAYBE get more money down the road was just silly. The contract he turned down last year (if true) which would have made him BY FAR the highest paid RB for several years BY A LOT was silly.
But, if for some strange reason the Steelers don't franchise him (which wont happen) then I am all for the Browns going 4 years 60 million and hope he wasnt just looking for a cash grab and then phone it in the rest of his career.
The amount of risk he put himself through this year playing with like 400 touches to MAYBE get more money down the road was just silly. The contract he turned down last year (if true) which would have made him BY FAR the highest paid RB for several years BY A LOT was silly.
But, if for some strange reason the Steelers don't franchise him (which wont happen) then I am all for the Browns going 4 years 60 million and hope he wasnt just looking for a cash grab and then phone it in the rest of his career.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Except he didn't, because just by signing the franchise tag again this season he would basically make it right back and he would make up any difference plus more in 2019 (which would cover that guarantees of the contract he did not sign). So in other words he gave up nothing in real money - all that money is still available to him. Sure he did take a risk of a career ending injury taking away his ability to earn future money - but how often do we really see career ending injuries?
In your scenario he's giving up actual game checks that he can not get back - even if everything played out the way you say and the Steelers rescinded his franchise tag in the middle of the season (not sure what they could use that money on by then anyway) and another team swooped in and signed him long term, would that team pay him more than $14MM for what was left in the 2018 season? If not he lost that money (each game check he missed) and will not make it back.
Anyway it's just my opinion that he will be a Steeler next season and not miss a game. Trying to argue one way or the other really doesn't accomplish anything - especially this early in the year. For all we know it may never even comes to this and they work out a long term deal.
Again, you aren't applying your logic equally. He knew, going into his decision last July, what his franchise tag would be for 2017, and by extension, what it would be for 2018, and it added up to $26.6 Million. His guaranteed money in the contract he declined was for over $30M. That's $3.4 million he won't get back, it's not like the Steelers, or another team, are going to say "you should have had that extra $3.4 million in guaranteed money, so we'll just add it to our offer." Bell has made it clear that he wants a particular set of numbers (which are not reasonable, based on the NFL's current valuation of RBs), and has shown that he will not accept less. He's shown that he is willing to hold out all of pre-season, and he's said he's willing to retire (I don't believe this) if he doesn't get what he wants. His only leverage is to refuse to sign & hold out, so IMO, it's reasonable to believe he'd be willing to do it.
You may be right, and he wont' miss a game for the Steelers (b/c of the contract) next year, but I was sure before last season, that Pitt would get him signed to a long-term deal. The offer they made was reasonable, but it wasn't good enough for Bell. He doesn't seem to be inclined to just go along with what is "normal" for the NFL.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How so? You think the Steelers (or another team) are getting to put an extra $3.4 million in his next contract to make up for the $3.4 he won't get between 2017/2018?
He gambled on himself and already won that gamble, it's just a matter of if he wants to do it again but he won already by not signing a long term deal last season.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Not at all what I was saying. I dont think Bell should do anything based on Ben. My point was that the Steelers will either pay him what it takes to get him, or let him go. I cannot see them allowing him to eat up $14M in salary cap and miss half the season sitting out/getting back into playing condition. Ben would/should throw a fit if they do. Pay a RB (Hyde/Crowell) $5M and use the other $9M of that money to sure up the defense that probably has lost its best LB and one of its best playmakers. I know thats a big step down from Bell, but what good is Bell if he is not on the field and is eating up $14M that could be used to put talent on the field? Ben's window is too small at this point to waste a season like that.
If he sits out he does get paid so he can't both sit out half the season and cost them $14M in cap space.
One could argue from a cap angle the Steelers might be better off if he sat out early in the year. I don't think he'd do this but if he took the nuclear option and sat out 10 games they'd only have to pay him around $5.5M for ROS and that $9-10M they saved they could sign another RB to play those first 10 weeks and still have money left to burn.There is a flaw in this approach in that it's hard for them to work all this out when they would not know when Bell would report but it's a legit argument to me that this would actually work out better.
I will just say I do not see Pittsburgh letting him walk.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I guess I dont fully understand the ramifications of the tag on the cap, but I am sure you do so that woudl make sense.
I think it is very possible that they let him walk. They made him an incredible offer last year and he declined it. He is an awesome, generational talent but he got an offer that was 50% higher than the next highest paid player at his position, and he turned it down. He has a false sense of what RBs are worth IMO. That offer was amazing, and if he does not come down to earth on what his real value is, I could see them letting him walk. That is a lot of money to use elsewhere, and they need help elsewhere. The offense would still be more than formidable with Ben/AB/JuJu/Martavis and a $5M/yr RB. I know that Bell is superior to Hyde/Crowell, but those guys have played on terrible offenses with terrible QBs and playing from behind nearly every week. Playing with a top QB in a top offense will make anyone from Cleveland or SF look better. I feel pretty confident about that. How great did DeAngelo Williams look in that offense, and he was considered done in the NFL.
If I am the Steelers, I am not paying any RB more than what they offered Bell. Not unless I was 100% solid at every other position, and didnt need the cap money.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
They can't exactly spend that cap space though, because if he signs the tender they have to be able to add the hit, so he's costing them in the form of opportunity cost.
They can spend it, they got obstacles which I mentioned but they can spend it, just have to be able to adjust some contracts if he reported earlier then he expected which is pretty doable.
They can’t do that. They have to leave 14.5 M in cap space for him as long as they have the franchise tag extended. Each game he doesn’t sign, they get a bit more cap room, but they couldn’t sign a guy in FA with the expected $5 or $9, or $10M from a Bell “hold out.” If they did, Bell sign the tender immediately & put them over the cap & force them to have to cut $5, $9, or $10M immediately.
Like I said, this is bells main source of leverage if they apply the franchise tag, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable for him to do so.
OK, but im that case, bell gets to negotiate with all other teams & can likely command a larger contract, which is why he SHOULD, from a business standpoint consider this strategy.
No, they can’t. Remember, they’d have to sign this FA RB on the off-season, while they’d still be on the hook for the full $14.5 if Bell signed the tender. Since they are projected to be up against the cap as it is, & They are going to have to do some restructuring just to get under the cap & have $$ to sign their draft picks. If they sign a RB for $7-8M while they have the franchise tender open to Bell, he can wait until all draft picks sign, sees that they are up against the cap & sign the tender. Boom, Pitt is $14.5M over the cap & have to find that $$ right away. This isn’t easy to do in NFL, and if they’ve already re-structured contracts in the offseason (which they’ll have to do to get under the cap), they will be even more limited on what they can do.
Again, this strategy is the main leverage Bell has; it would be naive to say “he won’t do that.” From a business POV, he SHOULD do that.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I dont disagree with you at all. If he thinks he can get a better deal than what the Steelers offered, he should force their hand because I cannot see them letting him eat up the cap from his living room with Ben's clock ticking like it is. He really may be able to get more money. The Raiders are the kind of team that has always liked to make a splash, and with the move to Vegas and Gruden in town already, I could see them finding a way to make the numbers work. Wouldnt be a bad landing spot for fantasy purposes either.
Teams like Ind, TB, Hou, Det have over $50M in cap space available on 2018 (Det is just under, @$49M). If he was able to negotiate, any one of those teams (& more) could afford to over-pay & Bell could get a huge contract. The more I think about it, the more I think he SHOULD do this (& I’d rather see the Steelers keep him). He’s not a QB who’ll get multiple shots at big contracts; Roethlisberger, if he plays out his current deal, will have made over $200M in his career. Bell, ieven if he gets a ridiculously large RB deal, will make less than 1/2 that & probably closer to 1/3 of that, at best.
From Rotoworld today -
"
Impending free agent Le'Veon Bell said he and the Steelers are in active contract talks and are "a lot closer" than they were last year.
Bell turned down an extension last year that would have guaranteed him $30 million over the first two years of the deal and paid around $12 million annually, which would have easily made him the league's highest-paid back. He played 2017 on the $12.1 million franchise tag. This year, the tag would cost around $14.5 million. Bell turns 26 next month. He's going to get paid either way."
"
Impending free agent Le'Veon Bell said he and the Steelers are in active contract talks and are "a lot closer" than they were last year.
Bell turned down an extension last year that would have guaranteed him $30 million over the first two years of the deal and paid around $12 million annually, which would have easily made him the league's highest-paid back. He played 2017 on the $12.1 million franchise tag. This year, the tag would cost around $14.5 million. Bell turns 26 next month. He's going to get paid either way."
Godsbrother
Footballguy
As a Steelers fan I am not sure this is a good or bad thing. Bell is a great player but not sure I want to break the bank to keep him
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Since he was paid $12MM last season that likely factors into the equation - meaning the deal can be "closer" than last year without really increasing much, if anything, at all. In essence he already saw year 1 of that deal since it averaged $12MM per year. If he got the same $30MM guaranteed at a year older he's already coming out ahead.
ETA: It's still a significant amount of money of course so your point still remains.
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Curious to see how his patient style will play behind another line, especially if it's not a good line
Logically, it should, but I'm not sure it will. The Steelers will probably look at it that way, but I'm not sure Bell will. I believe he still wants a bigger contract than was offered last year, and he will still be unreasonable about what he wants. His wants do not mesh with the NFL's current valuation of RBs. I don't see the Steelers meeting his demands; so for a deal to be made, I think he'll have to move more towards their offer, than vice versa.
