RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid week 1 of the 2007 season (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Good thread. But come on guys, MoP is doing all the input, let's not just say thanks. Here's my share:

Willie Parker (top 5 start) - Willie is a sure thing for a TD and easily over 100 combined yards. Last year he torched the Browns for 286 combined yards and 3 TDs in 2 games. Willie is noe the 3rd down back in Pitt, so expect him to catch more balls.

Jamal Lewis (desperate start) - I would not start him as my RB2 unless I have no choice. the Steelers held the Browns last year to 1 offensive TD in two games. The Browns will be better, but the Steelers too. Lewis was let go from the Ravens because he wasn't the same as he used to, I don't expect him to regain form in a mediocre team like the Browns against a solid rushing D.

Clinton Portis (situational start) - I would only start him if you don't have another RB2 with more upside this week (Cadiilac, Lamont). It's tough coming back from multiple injuries, in addition to the anounced RBBC. Wait and see what Portis does this week if you have a stable of decent #2 RB's.

Julius Jones (bench him) - He will have to score from outside the 10. Avoid if possible.

Fred Taylor (decent start) - If there's a time in the year to start Fred Taylor it is this: not injured yet and against a lousy Titans rushing D.

However I disagree with a lot of this but love the input.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I am going to try and provide a link to some recent threads about individual players so you all can sort through and banter within them quickly.

Larry Johnson status

Ronnie Brown Status

Thomas Jones status

Frank Gore

Portis thread...17 pages and still growing

 

[KRIMME]

First day on this forum, and I am really impressed with this post!

This is an interesting take on Carnell Williams. Lots of people seem to be high on the Seahawks D. What steps back do you think they took? I am choosing between T Jones, Cadillac, and B Jackson for my RB2 and W/R spots, and that was a new insight to me.

Also, I am a hard core Iggles fan but have to agree that our run D is a good match up for any RB at the moment. They say our DTs are improved, but I am not buying it until I actually see Bunkley clog up the middle. If that doesn't happen, our LBs are not nearly strong enough.

 

[Boulder Toads]

3 decisions that are somewhat close calls; here's what my gut is telling me:

* LEAGUE #1: Ahman Green over ADP as my RB2 (paired with SJax as my RB1 I need the sure thing and this week, that's Green)

* LEAGUE #2: Portis over ADP as my flex-RB3 -- both are equally risky IMO, but I feel Portis has a greater % chance of getting >15 touches at this point)

* LEAGUE #3: Portis over a slew of mid-tier guys (JLewis, DFoster, JJones) -- this one is messing with my mind right now ... appreciate any thoughts here ...

** None of these are PPR; all TD's 6pts; 3pt bonus at 100yds **

 

[Ministry of Pain]

First day on this forum, and I am really impressed with this post! This is an interesting take on Carnell Williams. Lots of people seem to be high on the Seahawks D. What steps back do you think they took? I am choosing between T Jones, Cadillac, and B Jackson for my RB2 and W/R spots, and that was a new insight to me. Also, I am a hard core Iggles fan but have to agree that our run D is a good match up for any RB at the moment. They say our DTs are improved, but I am not buying it until I actually see Bunkley clog up the middle. If that doesn't happen, our LBs are not nearly strong enough.

Welcome to the boards Krimme, glad you stumbled into this thread. Thomas Jones has an awful daunting task against the NE front seven this weekend and the Jets lost Pete Kendall inside so it may be a little tougher to move Vince Wolfolk around come Sunday. Caddy will be relied upon to help keep the ball moving as I think Seattle is a very tough place to zip the ball around for opposing teams coming in from out of town. Brandon Jackson as far as I know has been named the starter but I think he will have some success but I like Caddy a lot better than wheeling out a rookie. I can't tell you who to start but Jones has a terrible match up but the most experience of all the backs...Caddy is now a 3rd year pro with a decent match up, and BJ is a rookie...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

3 decisions that are somewhat close calls; here's what my gut is telling me:

* LEAGUE #1: Ahman Green over ADP as my RB2 (paired with SJax as my RB1 I need the sure thing and this week, that's Green)

* LEAGUE #2: Portis over ADP as my flex-RB3 -- both are equally risky IMO, but I feel Portis has a greater % chance of getting >15 touches at this point)

* LEAGUE #3: Portis over a slew of mid-tier guys (JLewis, DFoster, JJones) -- this one is messing with my mind right now ... appreciate any thoughts here ...

** None of these are PPR; all TD's 6pts; 3pt bonus at 100yds **

Portis has more talent and a better offensive line than all the other 3 in your #3 league. Foster has a decent match up but JJones is splitting carries, and JLewis I like but not over Portis.

 

[walnutz]

MOP -

Great work I have followed this thread since the beginning. I drafed in the 10 spot in a 10 team league. I am concerend about my RB corps. As such I am facing some tough decisions.

Right now I have Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs in the starting line up.

I think Brown will have a decent week 1. I am projecting a TD, 80 yards rushing and a 20 recv for a combined total of 100 yards.

I think Jacobs is good for at least a TD and 70 yards.

In my league that is good for 27 points.

The guys I have on my bench that I could start over them are

Chester Taylor and Tatum Bell.

Chester will be splitting carries with Peterson and who knows with Tatum right now.

I think Bell has the chance for the more explosive type play(i.e. long TD run) than Taylor would and that is my dilemma. Do I pull Brown or Jacobs to start a Tatum bell on the chance that he could pull off one of those runs. My gut says leave it as it is.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP -

Great work I have followed this thread since the beginning. I drafed in the 10 spot in a 10 team league. I am concerend about my RB corps. As such I am facing some tough decisions.

Right now I have Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs in the starting line up.

This is the 1st problem...sorry.

I think Brown will have a decent week 1. I am projecting a TD, 80 yards rushing and a 20 recv for a combined total of 100 yards. OK

I think Jacobs is good for at least a TD and 70 yards. I can't even go there with you. Dallas is going to unleash hell Sunday Night...people are going to be shocked at what they do to the Giants...watercooler talk for sure. Not a chance in hell Jacobs will be able to move that ball between the tackles down the throat of the Cowboys to then get himself in position to punch in a short score.

In my league that is good for 27 points.

The guys I have on my bench that I could start over them are

Chester Taylor and Tatum Bell.

Chester will be splitting carries with Peterson and who knows with Tatum right now.

I think Bell has the chance for the more explosive type play(i.e. long TD run) than Taylor would and that is my dilemma. Do I pull Brown or Jacobs to start a Tatum bell on the chance that he could pull off one of those runs. My gut says leave it as it is.

The real issue here is Jacobs vs TBell vs Chester Taylor...I have to assume Taylor will get more carries this weekend than Peterson, however that is not a given. I do know Bell will see most of the action as Kev Jones is simply not ready. I guess you have to sack up with Jacobs and hope for the best although I am not sure Tatum bell isn't a bad play this week...this may actually be one of the few weeks you can utilize him.

Thanks for reading, and also contributing your thoughts on the games you have this weekend, that's what the thread is all about.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is the kind of injury/news that you want to stay on top of. The Atlanta Falcons have now lost Coleman for the next 4 weeks. This has a huge impact on their rush defense and makes the Minnesota Vikings a more attractive play this weekend. If we just knew who was going to get the majority of the carries...

DT Coleman is out for the Falcons

 

[yinzer]

After reading the OP and going through all the other posts, I'm glad to see other ppl sticking with their guns and letting Jacobs fly this week. I agree with you MOP in that its a bad start IF you're judging the uncertainty of the G-Men offense and the goodness of the DAL D, but I also laughed at that person starting BJackson over Jacobs. That guys reading a little too much into things. I'm very high on him for the year, but not so much this week.

I'm not excited about it, but I'm currently and likely will end up starting Jacobs this week. Walnuts just said he expects 70 and a TD. If he gets that, I'm more than fine starting him as my flex.

Also, I already know I got a 24.5 pt week from Wayne, and think I have nearly no chance of losing to an inferior opponent this week (esp w/ Wayne's #'s) so I'm going with the guy who I believe has the least risk and best chance to get me at least 7-8 points.

Currently, Im starting him over:

-ADP (I think the ATL D is probably one of the 5 easiest D's to break off a long run or 2 on, but I'm too unsure of his carry status to start him. See risk/reward above)

-Driver (Injury concerns me somewhat still. He only partially practiced yesterday, but I'm guessing he's 80-90%)

-Clayton (I love his matchup vs. CIN, but last year he was somewhat of a big game guy. At this point, I have 3 very good to great WR's on my squad and I don't plan on ever starting him outside of injury/bye probs. That said, he's the 1 guy im still thinking about plugging in my lineup this week)

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

any reason in hell to play Tatum Bell over Ahman Green, PPR?

 

[KRIMME]

Green is running against KC, and is THE guy in Houston. I think Tatum's tendency to fumble and the matchup are enough, but the Lions are pretty likely to use Duckett in the red zone anyway.