What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid week 1 of the 2007 season (1 Viewer)

mop...first time here and i thank you..lot of thinking went into this post. for this week i am starting tatum bell (#2 back) over benson for the reason he is playing a very tough d on the road - oakland d was very tough against the pass but not against the run and i see no improvement in that part (same d coach) of course it helps i have lt and julius jones to get more points, but i drafted benson as #2 back, not someone i have to play every week (unless he shows me i should) :confused:

 
good read.

im facing the decision of caddy vs. chester vs. deshaun for my flex, and this article helped me feel better about the caddy side.

 
MOP puts more into this weekly thread than most other sites put up for their whole Week 1 pregame stuff. GREAT STUFF. Keep up the good work. It's officially football season now.

 
You obviously have to start him, but Steven Jackson's worst game last year was against Carolina, who will again have a pretty good run defense.

 
Nice read, but I'm even more confused about who to start than I was before reading it. I have 4 of your "start him" in 1 league, but only LJ is a sure thing for me.

 
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.

 
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.
I would start Jacobs with confidence over Jackson.
 
Is anyone really high this week on someone who appears to have a tough match up or just is in muddy water as far as knowing what their role will be exactly?
Great stuff as always MOP [/hijack]I like Ahman Green as an all world RB3. I'm starting him over Portis/Betts in week 1 on a Week1 only basis unless the RBBC scenario plays out in Washington.Jamal Lewis will be back from the dead this year thanks to OLine and fullback investments by the Browns. Not huge, but 1200 and 12 is not unrealistic.Here's on odd question for you:Who do you think gets more playing time this year; Chicago backup or Buffalo backup? I'd guess AP in Chicago sees more touches.
Adian Peterson-Chi, and Sammy Morris are two RB that if available should be grabbed quickly and tucked away for a rainy day this season.
 
Julius Jones: (Marginal start) I think he will get 15-20 touches this week but this situation is much the same as the Panthers. MB III: (At your own risk) My best guess and that’s all it is right now is that he will be used a lot like Betts in Washington…maybe get his own series about a third of the time. I don’t think he is a shoe in at the goal line every time down either. Wade Phillips history doesn’t indicate that he likes a 2 back system or rotation.
Looking forward to more of your work this season.I suppose I will toss this out there: In one of my leagues, I drafted both Barber and J. Jones. Any chance that Phillips & Co. will choose one over the other? More specifically, Parcells clearly used Jones between the 20s and Barber 3rd down and goal line. Similar this season?
I feel that JJ will get 2 entire drives to work the ball down the field. I think you will see MB III on the 3rd drive...4th and 5th JJ...6th MB III, and in the 2nd half they might be split a little more 50/50 as the defense wears down and Barber is the more powerful runner.JJ's game is about burst...he has burst whether you believe that or not. MBIII has more power in his game.
 
Is anyone really high this week on someone who appears to have a tough match up or just is in muddy water as far as knowing what their role will be exactly?
Thoughts on Fred Taylor MP? I think the Jags are going to be running the ball a lot this year, especially now with Garrard at QB. The Titan defense is bad and I can see Freddy T going off for 100+ yards and a score? I also think he may get more action than MJD this week. :unsure:
"Fred Taylor: (Start him) Should see plenty of action on Sunday."I know you're looking for hard numbers or something a little more in depth here...I just am not sure what the fallout form Lefty no longer being the QB has on this offense. I think the match up is good but I stay away from hard numbers usually. The Panthers projections were a bit tongue and cheek.Taylor has a good match up this week though.
 
Adrian Peterson: (For those with strong stomachs) Obviously keep an eye on him in training camp but they drafted him #7 with Chester Taylor already on their roster…what are the odds he is going to be watching and learning form the sidelines? Nill! I would give him a green light and especially against a Falcons’ team that will resemble Rocky when he was beaten in 3 rounds by Clubber Lang for most of the year.
I guess years and years of cheap whiskey has given me a strong stomach. Unless some major issue comes to light before this game, I'm starting him over L. Jordan. Up until August, I was going to go with C. Taylor, but live by the sword... Thank MoP for the write-up
Thanks alot! I was all set with my decision to start L Jordan over A Peterson, then you have to go and do the opposite! I know Peterson has a higher risk/reward, but I haven't decided if I have the stomach for it or not. We really have no clue what will happen with the Minn RBs, but I will be :kicksrock: if he pulls off a couple of tds while on my bench. I'm waiting to see if anyone else is going to go for it. Thanks for the awesome thread!
 
I am really having a hard time figuring out what to do with Lamont Jordan and this thread didn't make it any easier. Lions really do have a pretty solid run D, but with there suspect pass D I could see Jordan getting a lot of catches and some TD opportunities.

 
:IBTL: I always enjoy your articles and appreciate your insight. I have a quick question about your advice to pick up Sammy Morris, NE, off of waivers since I was considering that very move last night since I have Maroney in a couple of leagues. I've been hesitant because the NE depth chart has Faulk listed as the back-up and Morris is 3rd so I wasn't sure of his value.Do you think Morris would start if Maroney is injured or Faulk would start but do poorly and Morris would eventually get the carries?Thanks for you comments and thoughts on this situation!
I think Morris is the guy you want because of his running skills. Faulk has been there a long time and is basically a 3rd down back and/or the best receiving threat out of the backfield.
 
Julius Jones: (Marginal start) I think he will get 15-20 touches this week but this situation is much the same as the Panthers. MB III: (At your own risk) My best guess and that’s all it is right now is that he will be used a lot like Betts in Washington…maybe get his own series about a third of the time. I don’t think he is a shoe in at the goal line every time down either. Wade Phillips history doesn’t indicate that he likes a 2 back system or rotation.
Looking forward to more of your work this season.I suppose I will toss this out there: In one of my leagues, I drafted both Barber and J. Jones. Any chance that Phillips & Co. will choose one over the other? More specifically, Parcells clearly used Jones between the 20s and Barber 3rd down and goal line. Similar this season?
I feel that JJ will get 2 entire drives to work the ball down the field. I think you will see MB III on the 3rd drive...4th and 5th JJ...6th MB III, and in the 2nd half they might be split a little more 50/50 as the defense wears down and Barber is the more powerful runner.JJ's game is about burst...he has burst whether you believe that or not. MBIII has more power in his game.
I think we'll see the status quo from the Dallas RBs---JJ gets the touches between the 20s, and 3 gets the rest including short-yardage and goalline.
 
anyone think James could have a big game? Is SF's DEF the same, better?
Piggybackin this...would also like to hear the answer to this question as well
I like Edge all year, not just this week against SF. He has the ability to produce at a high level as he showcased in Indy...and Fitz+ Boldin +Leinart in his 2nd year are a very solid surrounding cast...the OL should be improved under the Whis Kid and Grimm.This week? Yeah I like Edge to have a good shot at 100 yds and a TD on Sunday...I would be very disappointed he came out and laid the almisghty egg on Sunday.
 
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.
Why would he have a good shot at a short yardage TD this week over any other week...if you pencil him in for the plunge every week you are essentially saying he will have 16 TD this year...I don't see it.
 
Warrick Dunn: (Look elsewhere) I would not be wheeling him out week 1. It is possible the Vikes are not as strong on rush defense but even if that ypc comes up from 2.8 to about 3.5, it still will be tough go of it for Atlanta…and we don’t know what the rotation is going to look like…let him sit.

Jerious Norwood: (Bench him) Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.

And did I mention the Vikings gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off to Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
I agree with most of this take, especially that MIN is much tougher against the run than ,aybe we give them credit for.However, the "Vick Effect" is terribly overrated. His threat of running was negated by his inablilty to pass. Dunn's "improvement" had little to do with Vick.

I believe the ATL RBs are underrated this season, as Harrington and Redman are both better passers, and Robinson and Horn are better receivers and so the passing game should be an improvement. Additionally, the RBs should be used more on screens, etc. which Vick sucked at.

 
Warrick Dunn: (Look elsewhere) I would not be wheeling him out week 1. It is possible the Vikes are not as strong on rush defense but even if that ypc comes up from 2.8 to about 3.5, it still will be tough go of it for Atlanta…and we don’t know what the rotation is going to look like…let him sit.

Jerious Norwood: (Bench him) Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.

And did I mention the Vikings gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off to Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
I agree with most of this take, especially that MIN is much tougher against the run than ,aybe we give them credit for.However, the "Vick Effect" is terribly overrated. His threat of running was negated by his inablilty to pass. Dunn's "improvement" had little to do with Vick.

I believe the ATL RBs are underrated this season, as Harrington and Redman are both better passers, and Robinson and Horn are better receivers and so the passing game should be an improvement. Additionally, the RBs should be used more on screens, etc. which Vick sucked at.
Good to see you Switz.My issue with people that do not acknowledge the impact of Vick and that backfield is very simple. You're a LB let's say. And you see Vick take the snap...where are your eyes glued? Vick! He might look to hand off but until you actually see that ball in Dunn's/Norwood's hands you are assuming Vick could/might keep it and then run around the end like he has done so many times...Vick had over 1,000 yds rushing last year. Dunn and Norwood were at least getting to the line or a little beyond b4 the LB were going to committ and sellout to stopping them. I am not going to argue about Vick's arm but he made as many plays with his feet or more than many QBs make with their arms.

Atlanta will have a very bad Michael Vick hangover IMO.

 
Warrick Dunn: (Look elsewhere) I would not be wheeling him out week 1. It is possible the Vikes are not as strong on rush defense but even if that ypc comes up from 2.8 to about 3.5, it still will be tough go of it for Atlanta…and we don’t know what the rotation is going to look like…let him sit.

Jerious Norwood: (Bench him) Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.

And did I mention the Vikings gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off to Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
I agree with most of this take, especially that MIN is much tougher against the run than ,aybe we give them credit for.However, the "Vick Effect" is terribly overrated. His threat of running was negated by his inablilty to pass. Dunn's "improvement" had little to do with Vick.

I believe the ATL RBs are underrated this season, as Harrington and Redman are both better passers, and Robinson and Horn are better receivers and so the passing game should be an improvement. Additionally, the RBs should be used more on screens, etc. which Vick sucked at.
Good to see you Switz.My issue with people that do not acknowledge the impact of Vick and that backfield is very simple. You're a LB let's say. And you see Vick take the snap...where are your eyes glued? Vick! He might look to hand off but until you actually see that ball in Dunn's/Norwood's hands you are assuming Vick could/might keep it and then run around the end like he has done so many times...Vick had over 1,000 yds rushing last year. Dunn and Norwood were at least getting to the line or a little beyond b4 the LB were going to committ and sellout to stopping them. I am not going to argue about Vick's arm but he made as many plays with his feet or more than many QBs make with their arms.

Atlanta will have a very bad Michael Vick hangover IMO.
Hard to get evidence on either side, but Norwood averaged 6.3YPC last season when Schaub played week 17. In '05 when Schaub started against NE (a very good run D) Dunn averaged 4.4YPC.And that is with a backup QB who, especially in 05, should have had teams stacking the line against the run.

 
Here is my "this who I am starting" post.

I have a rb 2 and flex spot to fill with B. Jacobs and C Benson. I am going to sit Benson and use Jacobs as my rb 2 this week and fill my flex spot with A. Boldin. I do not see myself sitting either of these backs too often, but do not feel good about Benson against SD. I see the Chargers forcing the Bears to throw the ball to win and putting an ephasis on shutting Benson down.

I do like Jacobs to have a good game this week even though the majority seem to be a little down on him for this week.

 
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.
Why would he have a good shot at a short yardage TD this week over any other week...if you pencil him in for the plunge every week you are essentially saying he will have 16 TD this year...I don't see it.
I guess we'll see. Screw it, I'm starting Jacobs.
 
You're killing me with the Norwood/Dunn are dead shtick with Vick out. :thumbup: If those two have a good match-up in a given week how would you handle playing them? Basically I have to use one in the flex and figure I'll use Dunn at first or against good run defenses and Norwood later (hoping he wins the bulk of the carries). How do you see this playing out? I gotta think Atlanta will try to run as much as they can and get Norwood out in space. I'm a bit behind on my news though so any input is appreciated.

 
You're killing me with the Norwood/Dunn are dead shtick with Vick out. :coffee: If those two have a good match-up in a given week how would you handle playing them? Basically I have to use one in the flex and figure I'll use Dunn at first or against good run defenses and Norwood later (hoping he wins the bulk of the carries). How do you see this playing out? I gotta think Atlanta will try to run as much as they can and get Norwood out in space. I'm a bit behind on my news though so any input is appreciated.
Hey DD,I will try to be as clear as I can. With Vick out I downgrade the running game significantly. Others have posted that when Schaub was under center that Dunn and crew did pretty well...I seem to think it was Schaub who was lighting it up on teams like the Pats who were likely stacking the line with 8 and 9 in the box.When a LB can committ early as Harrington turns around and looks like he is handing off...even if the LBs are wrong they are making Joey beat him with his arm...he is no threat to tuck it and take off in the way Vick did while racking up over 1,000 yards out of the backfield last season and a couple of others where he was 800+ on the ground. Vick being out can only be viewed as catastrophic for the Atlanta Flacons. People have let their emotions dictate their view of this situation and many want to feel warm and fuzzy by saying good riddence to Vick. Vick may not have been an accurate QB but he made a ton of plays with his legs and kept defenses guessing what would happen next...Harrington brings none of that and so I am downgrading the Atlanta rush attack for right now.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
We have a new thread where Morency is now being listed as the starter in GB... Morency

I am going to update my thoughts on Green Bay later today o reflect the news coming out of there.

 
Pittsburgh at ClevelandJamal Lewis: (Start him…that’s not a misprint) Is MOP delusional? Maybe but there is always that player in week 1 that leaves you scratching your head and wondering why you didn’t get him. I think Lewis will do fairly well this week. I’m not calling for 200 yards or anything silly but 75-100 yds and also a score in the home opener…sounds about right. His OL is greatly improved and you are going to see a marked improvement from the Browns rushing attack.
Though he could have a good game I would be wary of starting Jamal Lewis against the Steelers. While the Browns o-line has improved on paper this line has yet to play a meaningful game together and it usually takes time for an o-line to gel. So it remains to be seen how much improved they will be, especially coming right out of the gate. In addition the Steelers defense last season had no 100 yard rushers against them, was ranked 3rd last season against the run and will be tough again this season. Finally if the Browns get down early in this game they could abandon the running game.So while Jamal Lewis might have a productive day the odds aren't good that he will.
 
I don't know how one could start Portis until he proves something oter than he is headed down Jamal Anderson Drive (i know hey are diff injuries). He can't be in game shape let alone 20+ carry shape. I think he has a better change of getting hurt than he does doing well.
Depends on your options, doesn't it? I have read more than one post here from folks who were able to grab Portis in the 6th round or so... if you are that guy, sure, you have other options, and can afford to play it safe here. To me, I can't fathom the idea of letting him slip out of the 4th, which means he's an Rb2 / / Rb3 / Flex player, and therefore he needs to be held up to other backs (and heck, WR's) in that Tier. So if you are starting him over Norwood or Tatum Bell, what's the risk? But if you did get him later, you're probably considering him against a Ronnie Brown / Cadillac / Thomas Jones type back, and you can sit back and see what Portis does.
 
Adrian Peterson: (For those with strong stomachs) Obviously keep an eye on him in training camp but they drafted him #7 with Chester Taylor already on their roster…what are the odds he is going to be watching and learning form the sidelines? Nill! I would give him a green light and especially against a Falcons’ team that will resemble Rocky when he was beaten in 3 rounds by Clubber Lang for most of the year.
I guess years and years of cheap whiskey has given me a strong stomach. Unless some major issue comes to light before this game, I'm starting him over L. Jordan. Up until August, I was going to go with C. Taylor, but live by the sword... Thank MoP for the write-up
Thanks alot! I was all set with my decision to start L Jordan over A Peterson, then you have to go and do the opposite! I know Peterson has a higher risk/reward, but I haven't decided if I have the stomach for it or not. We really have no clue what will happen with the Minn RBs, but I will be :thumbup: if he pulls off a couple of tds while on my bench. I'm waiting to see if anyone else is going to go for it. Thanks for the awesome thread!
Eep! I should have included the disclaimer that years and years of cheap whiskey has also eroded my brain (well whiskey and three years of marriage). Perhaps, by me starting AP, you should feel much better about giving Jordan the nod.
 
Great posting. I know my players now. I will be exploiting the Travis Henry and Willie Parker match-ups this week. Brandon Jacobs will stay on the bench per your advice. Cadillac will stay on the bench but I'll be hoping for a good day cause I want a back-up to emerge.

Only one day away. I'm ready.

 
MOP great insight, but now you have me scratching my head, because my RB2 according to your thoughs has my starting Caddy and Fred Taylor over Ronnie Brown.. Is Washington really that good? FBG so far has Ronnie lightly above Caddy and Ronnie but the Tennessee matchup sure is a nice one for Fred Taylor.

My RB1 is FWP by the way.

 
MOP great insight, but now you have me scratching my head, because my RB2 according to your thoughs has my starting Caddy and Fred Taylor over Ronnie Brown.. Is Washington really that good? FBG so far has Ronnie lightly above Caddy and Ronnie but the Tennessee matchup sure is a nice one for Fred Taylor.My RB1 is FWP by the way.
I hear ya ... my RB1 is FWP and RB2 is Caddy and/or Fred Taylor!
 
I have bad matchups for RB2 in both leagues I play in. I'm planning to start Fred Taylor over Lynch (preseason numbers have scared me even with the weakness in the Denver D line) and DeAngelo Williams as a marginally better start over Brandon Jacobs.

 
LordHusker said:
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.
Why would he have a good shot at a short yardage TD this week over any other week...if you pencil him in for the plunge every week you are essentially saying he will have 16 TD this year...I don't see it.
I guess we'll see. Screw it, I'm starting Jacobs.
Going Deuce over BJ this week.
 
I am probably choosing Fred taylor over Julius Jones this week based on the following (it helps that they each play a divisional opponent..more data):

Not so much that fred was great as that Julius was decidedly not great vs the Giants in 06:

Fred T vs Tenn in 06:

wk 9 vs Ten 13 for 79 yards (6.1 ypc), no recs, no TDs

wk 15 @ Ten: 2 for 37 yards..aggravated his hamstring

i will be paying close attention early on in the season to see Garrards effect on the offense and the running game in particular.

Julius vs NYG in 2006:

wk 7 vs NYG 13 for 30 (2.3 ypc) with 1 rec for 25 yards, no TDs

wk 13 @ NYG 11 for 24 (2.2 ypc) with 1 rec for 11 yards, no TDs

for reference:

MBIII vs NYG in 2006:

wk 7 vs NYG 6 for 29 (4.8 ypc) with 1 rec for 17 yards, no TDs

wk 13 @ NYG 12 for 76 with 2 TDs (6.3 ypc) with no recs

hope this helps some folks and good luck to all.

 
I am probably choosing Fred taylor over Julius Jones this week based on the following (it helps that they each play a divisional opponent..more data):

Not so much that fred was great as that Julius was decidedly not great vs the Giants in 06:

Fred T vs Tenn in 06:

wk 9 vs Ten 13 for 79 yards (6.1 ypc), no recs, no TDs

wk 15 @ Ten: 2 for 37 yards..aggravated his hamstring

i will be paying close attention early on in the season to see Garrards effect on the offense and the running game in particular.

Julius vs NYG in 2006:

wk 7 vs NYG 13 for 30 (2.3 ypc) with 1 rec for 25 yards, no TDs

wk 13 @ NYG 11 for 24 (2.2 ypc) with 1 rec for 11 yards, no TDs

for reference:

MBIII vs NYG in 2006:

wk 7 vs NYG 6 for 29 (4.8 ypc) with 1 rec for 17 yards, no TDs

wk 13 @ NYG 12 for 76 with 2 TDs (6.3 ypc) with no recs

hope this helps some folks and good luck to all.
helped me...going with taylor over bjacobs. tenn was 30th against the run last year think....
 
Have seen lots of people starting Fred Taylor in this thread, but what about if you have both Fred and MJD? Start both this week? (we can only start 2 RBs in our league)

 
djjosee said:
mt-wabo said:
MOP great insight, but now you have me scratching my head, because my RB2 according to your thoughs has my starting Caddy and Fred Taylor over Ronnie Brown.. Is Washington really that good? FBG so far has Ronnie lightly above Caddy and Ronnie but the Tennessee matchup sure is a nice one for Fred Taylor.My RB1 is FWP by the way.
I hear ya ... my RB1 is FWP and RB2 is Caddy and/or Fred Taylor!
I can answer both in this thread. I like the Bucs to lean on the running game after flying 3,000 miles to Seattle. Taylor will likely split carries...who is Caddy going to split carries with? Seattle's better at passing than running these days and that plays into the Bucs' hands. I expect the game to be close too.
 
meeka said:
Here is my "this who I am starting" post.I have a rb 2 and flex spot to fill with B. Jacobs and C Benson. I am going to sit Benson and use Jacobs as my rb 2 this week and fill my flex spot with A. Boldin. I do not see myself sitting either of these backs too often, but do not feel good about Benson against SD.
I have the same exact situation (Gore is my RB1). I am playing Benson and Jacobs and leaving Julius on the bench. Right or wrong, I can't get too hung up on matchups Week 1 and am playing them as I drafted them -- though it is a great write up, MOP!
 
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.
Why would he have a good shot at a short yardage TD this week over any other week...if you pencil him in for the plunge every week you are essentially saying he will have 16 TD this year...I don't see it.
since you already stated you're down on the g-men this year i understand being down on the guy. 16 td's are definitely not realistic i would think, i dont believe jacobs has it in him to break long runs and not sure how much of a believer i am in the team without tiki. i have to say, though, jacobs should easily be a start over brandon jackson under any circumstances here. jackson is an unproven rookie on a marginal team barely ahead of another decent back who may be starting over you any day vs. a definite starter on a team and without a backup who will take away goal line carries, i dont see a comparison here. unless you are predicting a total meltdown by the giants this year, Jacobs is a good start every week assuming you start two RB's. if only one is used, then i would think you may have better options. don't forget droughns is now a fullback and is a smaller back than jacobs, jacobs will get plenty of touches everywhere on the field.good stuff mop, looking forward to more throughout the season.pfedit: i missed that part about morency possibly starting this week instead of jackson, guess we'll wait and see on him.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Man, I can't believe how DOWN people are on Brandon Jacobs as a starter this week. I mean wouldn't you at least expect him to get a short-yardage TD of some sort? I can't believe I'm considering starting Brandon Jackson over him, but after reading this analysis -- as well as a couple of start/bench lists -- I'm doing it. I sure hope Jacobs proves everyone wrong so I can start him confidently in week two.
Why would he have a good shot at a short yardage TD this week over any other week...if you pencil him in for the plunge every week you are essentially saying he will have 16 TD this year...I don't see it.
since you already stated you're down on the g-men this year i understand being down on the guy. 16 td's are definitely not realistic i would think, i dont believe jacobs has it in him to break long runs and not sure how much of a believer i am in the team without tiki. i have to say, though, jacobs should easily be a start over brandon jackson under any circumstances here. jackson is an unproven rookie on a marginal team barely ahead of another decent back who may be starting over you any day vs. a definite starter on a team and without a backup who will take away goal line carries, i dont see a comparison here. unless you are predicting a total meltdown by the giants this year, Jacobs is a good start every week assuming you start two RB's. if only one is used, then i would think you may have better options. don't forget droughns is now a fullback and is a smaller back than jacobs, jacobs will get plenty of touches everywhere on the field.good stuff mop, looking forward to more throughout the season.pfedit: i missed that part about morency possibly starting this week instead of jackson, guess we'll wait and see on him.
Good points PF
 
New Orleans at Indianapolis: This is going to be a prime match up for both of these clubs as they have solid OL and passing games that should open up plenty of running room underneath for Addai, Bush, and McAllister.

NO defense 2006: 4.9 ypc, 10 TD. They had trouble in the running game but surprisingly did not give up all that many rushing TD for the season.

INDY defense 2006: 5.3 ypc and 20 TD. By far the worst rushing defense of 2006. What have they done to really make it better? They did lose some players on defense…maybe that wasn’t such a bad thing.

Reggie Bush: (Must start) In PPR leagues he will likely be a start almost every week. I am expecting an improvement over last season and would expect 100 yds a week from Bush. You likely drafted Bush in the 1st round so you are going to start him this week.

Deuce McAllister: (Decent start) I would be a little leery of starting this guy in week 1. I would like to see if they are going to give him 15+ carries a game before I start playing him every week. Bush is in year 2 and I expect an expanded role for him. Certainly he eats up a lot of the screens and passes out of the backfield. Deuce is one of those players that could end up in the box scores with 60 yds and 2 TD or 40 yds and no TD…I would say he is a risky play in week 1. The Saints are not going to be running the clock out on Indy in their building, I assure you. But with all the offense we are expecting in this game, Deuce might have enough touches to warrant a start. I would not start Deuce over other RB that do not split the backfield.

Joseph Addai: (Must start) Let the Addai era breakout week 1. JA is going to have a tremendous year and I’m sure many of you picked Addai in your redrafts. This looks like a good match up on paper.

Bush ended up with 8-9 points in PPR leagues which isn't great by any stretch but not quite as bad as Deuce. it was a miserable night for all Saints players not names Eric Johnson.

Addai IMO did not do anything special but he is a solid player in a great situation.

 
Good thread. But come on guys, MoP is doing all the input, let's not just say thanks. Here's my share:

Willie Parker (top 5 start) - Willie is a sure thing for a TD and easily over 100 combined yards. Last year he torched the Browns for 286 combined yards and 3 TDs in 2 games. Willie is now the 3rd down back in Pitt, so expect him to catch more balls.

Jamal Lewis (desperate start) - I would not start him as my RB2 unless I have no choice. the Steelers held the Browns last year to 1 offensive TD in two games. The Browns will be better, but the Steelers too. Lewis was let go from the Ravens because he wasn't the same as he used to, I don't expect him to regain form in a mediocre team like the Browns against a solid rushing D.

Clinton Portis (situational start) - I would only start him if you don't have another RB2 with more upside this week (Cadiilac, Lamont). It's tough coming back from multiple injuries, in addition to the anounced RBBC. Wait and see what Portis does this week if you have a stable of decent #2 RB's.

Julius Jones (bench him) - He will have to score from outside the 10. Avoid if possible.

Fred Taylor (decent start) - If there's a time in the year to start Fred Taylor it is this: not injured yet and against a lousy Titans rushing D.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top