Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Before we jump into this weeks football games, I want to lay out some ground rules and also some insight so everyone can relax and have fun posting, debating, and prognosticating. We…and I say we because it takes the entire board to really put these together…your input and feedback is what makes these threads worthwhile and why I put them up in the 1st place.
1. This is not the WDIS thread. And what I mean is there is a tendency to want to name 3 or players and ask that myself or someone else posting pick 2 of them. So let me suggest something that will make for better reading for all. Rather than trying to get people to pick 2, list the RB and tell us what your insights are in to the games that week. You will find that many on here have similar situations and you will get much more info to make an intelligent decision.
2. I realize that not everyone has all 32 starting RBs in which to put their roster together every week but I also pride myself in having a deep roster in most leagues and I am sure you do to. Rarely do I find myself with just 2 starting RB in leagues where I must start 2…usually in the drafts I have managed to secure 3 minimum if not 4 or 5…so I write this particular thread with the idea that many of you draft that way too. We can always snare a WR on waivers…RB are much harder to come by.
Also, a lot of you play in multiple leagues, so while there might only be 2 or 3 RB to choose from a team, you also probably have 20-25 different RB when you add up the 4 dynasty leagues, and 6 redrafts that some of us/you all participate in.
3. FBG has a terrific weekly article that concentrates on points given up and which RB have the best match ups…it is very well done and if any of you are sitting there on the fence as to whether you should buy an FBG subscription...you should do whatever you have to in order to be a member because even on a bad week, you will be way ahead of the rest of your league with their info. Was that a plug? Maybe, but I couldn’t compete without them.
I said that so you understand why this is here to begin with. We really can’t just paste Wimer’s weekly column in here and tear into it. I like the feedback from everyone so I try to write the thread with the idea of going a little deeper than simple match ups. I try to look and see if the defenses will have a good match up allowing short fields for the RB and offenses to exploit. Or perhaps the passing game IMO will be the feature form of attack and even though that RB is a stud and you are going to play him…you won’t score a lot that week. I like to look at the thread as almost a predictor or prognostication of sorts for the week.
4. Please be nice to each other. Not everyone that comes in here has been playing for 20 years, not everyone in here sits at the computer all week gobbling up info because they have a life(tongue and cheek boys), not everyone knows about Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jackson, and Tatum Bell…so let’s make an effort to not jump on folks that need a little clarity on who to be playing. Let’s not make the board patrol have to intervene in any of these threads this season. Instead of being a know it all, educate the rest of us so we can all prosper.
Alright, you ready to jump into this week? Let’s do it!
New Orleans at Indianapolis: This is going to be a prime match up for both of these clubs as they have solid OL and passing games that should open up plenty of running room underneath for Addai, Bush, and McAllister.
NO defense 2006: 4.9 ypc, 10 TD. They had trouble in the running game but surprisingly did not give up all that many rushing TD for the season.
INDY defense 2006: 5.3 ypc and 20 TD. By far the worst rushing defense of 2006. What have they done to really make it better? They did lose some players on defense…maybe that wasn’t such a bad thing.
Reggie Bush: (Must start) In PPR leagues he will likely be a start almost every week. I am expecting an improvement over last season and would expect 100 yds a week from Bush. You likely drafted Bush in the 1st round so you are going to start him this week.
Deuce McAllister: (Decent start) I would be a little leery of starting this guy in week 1. I would like to see if they are going to give him 15+ carries a game before I start playing him every week. Bush is in year 2 and I expect an expanded role for him. Certainly he eats up a lot of the screens and passes out of the backfield. Deuce is one of those players that could end up in the box scores with 60 yds and 2 TD or 40 yds and no TD…I would say he is a risky play in week 1. The Saints are not going to be running the clock out on Indy in their building, I assure you. But with all the offense we are expecting in this game, Deuce might have enough touches to warrant a start. I would not start Deuce over other RB that do not split the backfield.
Joseph Addai: (Must start) Let the Addai era breakout week 1. JA is going to have a tremendous year and I’m sure many of you picked Addai in your redrafts. This looks like a good match up on paper.
Atlanta @ Minnesota:
Atlanta defense 2006: Gave up only 3.7 ypc but 14 TD means they were good for about a score a week. Their secondary helped teams line up form short yardage to punch them in. They are certainly not the bottom of the barrel in terms of ypc.
Minnesota defense 2006: Their rush defense was awesome. They return both DT that plug the middle and held teams to 2.8 ypc and 9 TD for the season.
Warrick Dunn: (Look elsewhere) I would not be wheeling him out week 1. It is possible the Vikes are not as strong on rush defense but even if that ypc comes up from 2.8 to about 3.5, it still will be tough go of it for Atlanta…and we don’t know what the rotation is going to look like…let him sit.
Jerious Norwood: (Bench him) Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.
And did I mention the Vikings gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off to Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
Chester Taylor: (Has to be better options in your redraft leagues) I doubt he is going to be the starter for more than a minute but he did log 1,200 yds on the ground…I think the next guy I mention is likely to have his coming out party very early in the season…Chester may start the game but I expect a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson.
Adrian Peterson: (For those with strong stomachs) Obviously keep an eye on him in training camp but they drafted him #7 with Chester Taylor already on their roster…what are the odds he is going to be watching and learning form the sidelines? Nill! I would give him a green light and especially against a Falcons’ team that will resemble Rocky when he was beaten in 3 rounds by Clubber Lang for most of the year.
Denver at Buffalo:
Denver defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 13 TD…The Broncos gave up only 113 per game but the ypc alludes to the fact teams should have been running it even more. They have upgraded and with the CB duo of Bly and Bailey, I expect teams to try and run on them.
Buffalo defense 2006: 4.7 ypc and 14 TD…the Bills defense was weakened through FA this off season and many experts believe they will be much worse.
Travis Henry: (As long as he is not questionable on the injury report) I would think Henry will play hard against his former team and want to show how good he still is. A definite start in almost every league as long as he is healthy enough to play.
Marshawn Lynch: (Bench him) Most assume he is the starter but I don’t expect for him to have 20+ carries in his 1st game. I would likely let him sit this one out till we can evaluate just how much time he will get. This is not a great match up this week anyways.
Kansas City at Houston:
KC defense 2006: 4.2 ypc and 14 TD
Houston defense 2006: 4.4 ypc and 16 TD
Larry Johnson: (Great start this week) LJ will get off to a great start. Iknow the QB situation in KC is bleak but I think LJ will open with a very top3 type performance against Houston and likely post 100 yds and 1-2 TD. He better because it’s Chicago, MN, SD, and JAX after this opening game…yikes!
Ahman Green: (Solid start) He should see about 15-20 touches on the ground in this game. KC is not a world beater on defense, also they have Jared Allen out and he may be their best DL which hurts in both the pass and run.
Miami at Washington:
Miami defense 2006: 3.5 ypc and 7 TD
Washington defense 2006: 4.5 ypc and 9 TD
Ronnie Brown: (Average this week)Not liking how Cam was treating him at the end of the preseason. I think Brown needs confidence instilled in him, not made to feel like he is losing his job at the moment. I am not high on Miami right now…most of the beat writers down here are trying awfully hard to sell the Dolphins as a possible .500 or better team this year, I don’t see it with their OL. Washington is not great against the run but I expect a punchless offense to limit Brown’s effectiveness on Sunday.
Clinton Portis: (Take the Nestea plunge) I think owners are going to find out quick what they have with Portis. Miami has a solid rush defense but don’t forget the Skins just brought in Kendall from the NYJ…he has a lot of experience against the Phins and might be able to help this OL in the trenches by showing them some of the Phins weaknesses. Logic says to wait and see with Portis…he is likely your RB2, he’s had the biggest thread of all the RB in the Shark Pool and with good reason. Time to stick it to the rest of the league for letting this guy go by not once but many times 2 and 3 times until you snared him.
Ladell Betts: Wait and see what his role will be. My guess is he will likely get on the field for an entire drive about 1 out of 3-4 times depending on the score and situation.
New England at New York Jets
NE defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 11 TD
NYJ defense 2006: 4.6 ypc and 14 TD
Laurence Maroney: (Start him) I have no idea what the Pats are going to look like exactly on Sunday…but I can tell you that with Moss being whispered about in cut talks, and with Welker and Stallworth also trying to pick up the offense…I expect Coach Bellicheck to dish out a big pile of clock management and run run run the football because NE can definitely do that well. There should be a lot of holes to run through with all the WR spreading the defense out.
Sammy Morris: I list him because if he is on your WW you need to grab him quickly. I like Maroney a lot but he has been nicked up both alst season and also in the preseason this year. I think NE can run the football with Sammie Smith in the backfield if they had to so I would get Morris and hold on to him for now.
Thomas Jones: (Tough match up) Probably not going to light it up on NE in week 1. Some of you have TJ as part of a trio you got at RB in your drafts, I would try and let TJ sit this week.
Leon Washington: (Sleeper) In PPR leagues I would take a look at this guy. The Jets are likely to be behind and he might rack up some receiving yards once Jones is no longer a factor in the game.
Philly at Green Bay
Philly defense 2006: 4.5 ypc and 12 TD
GB defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 12 TD
Brian Westbrook: (Solid Start) He isn’t going to tear a hole in GB’s rush defense but coupled with what he will do out of the backfield…I expect a good game from Westy on Sunday.
Brandon Jackson: (Named the Starter) I would not hesitate to start him if you have flex positions you are filling. I am eager to see what the kid does and if he is “the starter” then he likely will get 15-20 touches minimum in this game. Philly is far from a world beater on rush defense so don’t shy too far away here.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pitt defense 2006: 3.5 ypc and 9 TD
Cleve defense 2006: 4.4 ypc and 14 TD
Willie Parker: (Start him) Is he going to get any carries in this new Run n Gun the Steelers are going to play? I kid of course but I have to think the style will be different than what Cowher did. He is a must start most weeks anyway so you won’t give this a 2nd thought week 1. The OL is pretty solid for Pittsburgh even with the influx and outflux of players this off season. Have you looked at Parker’s early schedule btw? Nice!
Jamal Lewis: (Start him…that’s not a misprint) Is MOP delusional? Maybe but there is always that player in week 1 that leaves you scratching your head and wondering why you didn’t get him. I think Lewis will do fairly well this week. I’m not calling for 200 yards or anything silly but 75-100 yds and also a score in the home opener…sounds about right. His OL is greatly improved and you are going to see a marked improvement from the Browns rushing attack.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Ten defense 2006: 4.6 ypc and 20 TD
JAX defense 2006: 3.5 ypc and 14 TD
LenDale White (Bench him) To my knowledge he has been named the starter but I expect the Titans to rotate the RB and I would pass on all of them against JAX who is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.
MJD: (Start him) Should be a great match up for Jags RB this week.
Fred Taylor: (Start him) Should see plenty of action on Sunday.
Chicago at San Diego: Get your popcorn ready for this one. A definite 5 star match up week 1.
Chicago defense 2006: 4.0 ypc and 7 TD
San Diego defense 2006: 4.2 ypc and 13 TD
Cedric Benson: (Tough match up) Might very well have a great season but it won’t be easy against SD in week 1. The Chargers are going to want to beat on someone after they let it slip away last year against NE. The Bears’ OL is one of the better units in the NFL but this affair will likely be low scoring…somewhere in the 17-14 range. I don’t see any of the RB really having career days here.
LT: (Average game from a Superstar) Can we just say LT at this point instead of LT2? He will do fine and rack 100 yds and a score but this will not be one of those 200 yd, 4 TD performances by any stretch of your wild Charger imagination. I can hear the owners coming into the Shark Pool now to gripe about how they lost by a couple of points and LT didn’t go nuclear…the humanity of it all.
Detroit at Oakland
Detroit defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 18 TD
Oakland defense 2006: 4.0 ypc and 15 TD
Tatum Bell: (Marginal start) Let me talk about Detroit for a minute. I see Detroit coming out of the box a lot slower than I had originally hoped for them earlier this off season. My biggest problem with the Lions though is their OL. There is a reason they stink it up year in and year out. They have a pretty solid QB, good WR even without Calvin Johnson, a pretty solid RB…what is the missing element? The Offensive Line!!! Remember when Goldie Wilson runs up on Biff after he crashes into the manure in Back to the Future? Same face I make when I look at Detroit and that OL. This might be the biggest tease since Geraldo tried to unearth Al Capone’s vault. It doesn’t matter who is starting for the Lions at RB or who they play if they can’t block. And did I mention how bad their defense could potentially be? Hard to run the ball when you are down 21-0 due to a swiss cheese secondary.
Dominic Rhodes: Suspended 1st 4 games of the season.
LaMont Jordan: (Start him)…Rhodes is out. If Jordan is healthy and recovered from his injuries of a year ago you start him. Detroit’s run defense isn’t half bad but at home I like Jordan to land in the top half of starting RB in week 1. The OL is not great but this is a decent match up for them. I wouldn’t start Jordan every week but he has little competition for the 1st 4 weeks of the season so plug him in as your RB2.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
Tampa Bay defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 11 TD
Seattle defense 2006: 4.6 ypc and 12 TD
“Cadillac” Williams: (Start him) I love him in week 1. Seattle has taken steps backwards since they played Pitt in the Super Bowl 18 months ago. I think TB will be much better on offense with their QB situation settled. Their OL is vastly improved over last year…look for a lot of progress from Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, and Dan Buenning.
Shaun Alexander: (Don’t over think it) As long as he is healthy there is no question you start the guy. His OL is not what it once was but Shaun is still an RB1 by almost all standards right now. IN PPR leagues he might be downgraded more than any other format.
Carolina at St Louis
Carolina defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 10 TD
St.Louis defense 2006: 4.9 ypc and 21 TD…OUCH!
DeShaun Foster: (Start him…or maybe not) He is supposed to be the starter so I guess we should start him…it’s a shame that in 2007 we have the same (expletive!) situation we had in 2006. It’s possible they both could be valuable this week, and it’s possible neither is valuable this week. I’m going to look into my crystal ball and pull out some stats for the two of them. Foster is going to have 18 carries for 75 yds rushing and DeAngelo will have 12 carries for 45 yds rushing but he will also have 3 receptions for another 40 yds and he will find the end zone.
DeAngelo Williams: Read above
Steven Jackson: (Solid start this week) I don’t expect crazy numbers from him this week but he’ll be fine…and so will owners that took him their drafts this year.
NY Giants at Dallas: And Sunday Night Football begins!
NYG defense 2006: 4.0 ypc and 19 TD
Dallas defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 12 TD
Brandon Jacobs: (Bad start) You’re a braver man than I if you start him in week 1. Dallas is pretty good against the run to begin with and I think the Giants are going to be a miserable team this year. I would pass on this for right now.
Julius Jones: (Marginal start) I think he will get 15-20 touches this week but this situation is much the same as the Panthers.
MB III: (At your own risk) My best guess and that’s all it is right now is that he will be used a lot like Betts in Washington…maybe get his own series about a third of the time. I don’t think he is a shoe in at the goal line every time down either. Wade Phillips history doesn’t indicate that he likes a 2 back system or rotation.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A double header on MNF…AWESOME!!!
Baltimore defense 2006: 3.3 ypc and 5 TD
Cinci defense 2006: 4.2 ypc and 15 TD
Willis McGahee: (Great start) Should have a great start to a nice 2007 season.
Rudi Johnson: (Tough match up) I know many will start him, and he has had some success in the past but this is not a good match up on paper. If somehow he is your RB2 this week, I like him a lot more.
Arizona at San Fran: This is the 2nd half of MNF? And while I am on this topic, look at some of these games they are pumping out on MNF…TN at NO, Dal at Buf, NYG at ATL, GB at Denver, SF at Sea, TN at Den, Miami at Pitt, while on SNF we see games like SD at NE, Dal at CHI, Pitt at DEN, just seems like SNF is better in all areas including the games themselves.
AZ defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 16 TD
SF defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 18 TD
Edge: (Start him) No reason not to. Last year was last year and I expect Whisenhunt and Grimm to get things moving on the ground game for AZ. San Fran is improved on defense but it’s not a world beater yet.
Frank Gore: (Start him) Hand seems to be fine, no reason to not uncork this guy on your roster. Not sure if it will happen right away, but I suspect Gore will be one of those RB we have to pull the tissues out for the owners on.
Enjoy and Good Luck to all week 1.
1. This is not the WDIS thread. And what I mean is there is a tendency to want to name 3 or players and ask that myself or someone else posting pick 2 of them. So let me suggest something that will make for better reading for all. Rather than trying to get people to pick 2, list the RB and tell us what your insights are in to the games that week. You will find that many on here have similar situations and you will get much more info to make an intelligent decision.
2. I realize that not everyone has all 32 starting RBs in which to put their roster together every week but I also pride myself in having a deep roster in most leagues and I am sure you do to. Rarely do I find myself with just 2 starting RB in leagues where I must start 2…usually in the drafts I have managed to secure 3 minimum if not 4 or 5…so I write this particular thread with the idea that many of you draft that way too. We can always snare a WR on waivers…RB are much harder to come by.
Also, a lot of you play in multiple leagues, so while there might only be 2 or 3 RB to choose from a team, you also probably have 20-25 different RB when you add up the 4 dynasty leagues, and 6 redrafts that some of us/you all participate in.
3. FBG has a terrific weekly article that concentrates on points given up and which RB have the best match ups…it is very well done and if any of you are sitting there on the fence as to whether you should buy an FBG subscription...you should do whatever you have to in order to be a member because even on a bad week, you will be way ahead of the rest of your league with their info. Was that a plug? Maybe, but I couldn’t compete without them.
I said that so you understand why this is here to begin with. We really can’t just paste Wimer’s weekly column in here and tear into it. I like the feedback from everyone so I try to write the thread with the idea of going a little deeper than simple match ups. I try to look and see if the defenses will have a good match up allowing short fields for the RB and offenses to exploit. Or perhaps the passing game IMO will be the feature form of attack and even though that RB is a stud and you are going to play him…you won’t score a lot that week. I like to look at the thread as almost a predictor or prognostication of sorts for the week.
4. Please be nice to each other. Not everyone that comes in here has been playing for 20 years, not everyone in here sits at the computer all week gobbling up info because they have a life(tongue and cheek boys), not everyone knows about Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jackson, and Tatum Bell…so let’s make an effort to not jump on folks that need a little clarity on who to be playing. Let’s not make the board patrol have to intervene in any of these threads this season. Instead of being a know it all, educate the rest of us so we can all prosper.
Alright, you ready to jump into this week? Let’s do it!
New Orleans at Indianapolis: This is going to be a prime match up for both of these clubs as they have solid OL and passing games that should open up plenty of running room underneath for Addai, Bush, and McAllister.
NO defense 2006: 4.9 ypc, 10 TD. They had trouble in the running game but surprisingly did not give up all that many rushing TD for the season.
INDY defense 2006: 5.3 ypc and 20 TD. By far the worst rushing defense of 2006. What have they done to really make it better? They did lose some players on defense…maybe that wasn’t such a bad thing.
Reggie Bush: (Must start) In PPR leagues he will likely be a start almost every week. I am expecting an improvement over last season and would expect 100 yds a week from Bush. You likely drafted Bush in the 1st round so you are going to start him this week.
Deuce McAllister: (Decent start) I would be a little leery of starting this guy in week 1. I would like to see if they are going to give him 15+ carries a game before I start playing him every week. Bush is in year 2 and I expect an expanded role for him. Certainly he eats up a lot of the screens and passes out of the backfield. Deuce is one of those players that could end up in the box scores with 60 yds and 2 TD or 40 yds and no TD…I would say he is a risky play in week 1. The Saints are not going to be running the clock out on Indy in their building, I assure you. But with all the offense we are expecting in this game, Deuce might have enough touches to warrant a start. I would not start Deuce over other RB that do not split the backfield.
Joseph Addai: (Must start) Let the Addai era breakout week 1. JA is going to have a tremendous year and I’m sure many of you picked Addai in your redrafts. This looks like a good match up on paper.
Atlanta @ Minnesota:
Atlanta defense 2006: Gave up only 3.7 ypc but 14 TD means they were good for about a score a week. Their secondary helped teams line up form short yardage to punch them in. They are certainly not the bottom of the barrel in terms of ypc.
Minnesota defense 2006: Their rush defense was awesome. They return both DT that plug the middle and held teams to 2.8 ypc and 9 TD for the season.
Warrick Dunn: (Look elsewhere) I would not be wheeling him out week 1. It is possible the Vikes are not as strong on rush defense but even if that ypc comes up from 2.8 to about 3.5, it still will be tough go of it for Atlanta…and we don’t know what the rotation is going to look like…let him sit.
Jerious Norwood: (Bench him) Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.
And did I mention the Vikings gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off to Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
Chester Taylor: (Has to be better options in your redraft leagues) I doubt he is going to be the starter for more than a minute but he did log 1,200 yds on the ground…I think the next guy I mention is likely to have his coming out party very early in the season…Chester may start the game but I expect a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson.
Adrian Peterson: (For those with strong stomachs) Obviously keep an eye on him in training camp but they drafted him #7 with Chester Taylor already on their roster…what are the odds he is going to be watching and learning form the sidelines? Nill! I would give him a green light and especially against a Falcons’ team that will resemble Rocky when he was beaten in 3 rounds by Clubber Lang for most of the year.
Denver at Buffalo:
Denver defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 13 TD…The Broncos gave up only 113 per game but the ypc alludes to the fact teams should have been running it even more. They have upgraded and with the CB duo of Bly and Bailey, I expect teams to try and run on them.
Buffalo defense 2006: 4.7 ypc and 14 TD…the Bills defense was weakened through FA this off season and many experts believe they will be much worse.
Travis Henry: (As long as he is not questionable on the injury report) I would think Henry will play hard against his former team and want to show how good he still is. A definite start in almost every league as long as he is healthy enough to play.
Marshawn Lynch: (Bench him) Most assume he is the starter but I don’t expect for him to have 20+ carries in his 1st game. I would likely let him sit this one out till we can evaluate just how much time he will get. This is not a great match up this week anyways.
Kansas City at Houston:
KC defense 2006: 4.2 ypc and 14 TD
Houston defense 2006: 4.4 ypc and 16 TD
Larry Johnson: (Great start this week) LJ will get off to a great start. Iknow the QB situation in KC is bleak but I think LJ will open with a very top3 type performance against Houston and likely post 100 yds and 1-2 TD. He better because it’s Chicago, MN, SD, and JAX after this opening game…yikes!
Ahman Green: (Solid start) He should see about 15-20 touches on the ground in this game. KC is not a world beater on defense, also they have Jared Allen out and he may be their best DL which hurts in both the pass and run.
Miami at Washington:
Miami defense 2006: 3.5 ypc and 7 TD
Washington defense 2006: 4.5 ypc and 9 TD
Ronnie Brown: (Average this week)Not liking how Cam was treating him at the end of the preseason. I think Brown needs confidence instilled in him, not made to feel like he is losing his job at the moment. I am not high on Miami right now…most of the beat writers down here are trying awfully hard to sell the Dolphins as a possible .500 or better team this year, I don’t see it with their OL. Washington is not great against the run but I expect a punchless offense to limit Brown’s effectiveness on Sunday.
Clinton Portis: (Take the Nestea plunge) I think owners are going to find out quick what they have with Portis. Miami has a solid rush defense but don’t forget the Skins just brought in Kendall from the NYJ…he has a lot of experience against the Phins and might be able to help this OL in the trenches by showing them some of the Phins weaknesses. Logic says to wait and see with Portis…he is likely your RB2, he’s had the biggest thread of all the RB in the Shark Pool and with good reason. Time to stick it to the rest of the league for letting this guy go by not once but many times 2 and 3 times until you snared him.
Ladell Betts: Wait and see what his role will be. My guess is he will likely get on the field for an entire drive about 1 out of 3-4 times depending on the score and situation.
New England at New York Jets
NE defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 11 TD
NYJ defense 2006: 4.6 ypc and 14 TD
Laurence Maroney: (Start him) I have no idea what the Pats are going to look like exactly on Sunday…but I can tell you that with Moss being whispered about in cut talks, and with Welker and Stallworth also trying to pick up the offense…I expect Coach Bellicheck to dish out a big pile of clock management and run run run the football because NE can definitely do that well. There should be a lot of holes to run through with all the WR spreading the defense out.
Sammy Morris: I list him because if he is on your WW you need to grab him quickly. I like Maroney a lot but he has been nicked up both alst season and also in the preseason this year. I think NE can run the football with Sammie Smith in the backfield if they had to so I would get Morris and hold on to him for now.
Thomas Jones: (Tough match up) Probably not going to light it up on NE in week 1. Some of you have TJ as part of a trio you got at RB in your drafts, I would try and let TJ sit this week.
Leon Washington: (Sleeper) In PPR leagues I would take a look at this guy. The Jets are likely to be behind and he might rack up some receiving yards once Jones is no longer a factor in the game.
Philly at Green Bay
Philly defense 2006: 4.5 ypc and 12 TD
GB defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 12 TD
Brian Westbrook: (Solid Start) He isn’t going to tear a hole in GB’s rush defense but coupled with what he will do out of the backfield…I expect a good game from Westy on Sunday.
Brandon Jackson: (Named the Starter) I would not hesitate to start him if you have flex positions you are filling. I am eager to see what the kid does and if he is “the starter” then he likely will get 15-20 touches minimum in this game. Philly is far from a world beater on rush defense so don’t shy too far away here.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pitt defense 2006: 3.5 ypc and 9 TD
Cleve defense 2006: 4.4 ypc and 14 TD
Willie Parker: (Start him) Is he going to get any carries in this new Run n Gun the Steelers are going to play? I kid of course but I have to think the style will be different than what Cowher did. He is a must start most weeks anyway so you won’t give this a 2nd thought week 1. The OL is pretty solid for Pittsburgh even with the influx and outflux of players this off season. Have you looked at Parker’s early schedule btw? Nice!
Jamal Lewis: (Start him…that’s not a misprint) Is MOP delusional? Maybe but there is always that player in week 1 that leaves you scratching your head and wondering why you didn’t get him. I think Lewis will do fairly well this week. I’m not calling for 200 yards or anything silly but 75-100 yds and also a score in the home opener…sounds about right. His OL is greatly improved and you are going to see a marked improvement from the Browns rushing attack.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Ten defense 2006: 4.6 ypc and 20 TD
JAX defense 2006: 3.5 ypc and 14 TD
LenDale White (Bench him) To my knowledge he has been named the starter but I expect the Titans to rotate the RB and I would pass on all of them against JAX who is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.
MJD: (Start him) Should be a great match up for Jags RB this week.
Fred Taylor: (Start him) Should see plenty of action on Sunday.
Chicago at San Diego: Get your popcorn ready for this one. A definite 5 star match up week 1.
Chicago defense 2006: 4.0 ypc and 7 TD
San Diego defense 2006: 4.2 ypc and 13 TD
Cedric Benson: (Tough match up) Might very well have a great season but it won’t be easy against SD in week 1. The Chargers are going to want to beat on someone after they let it slip away last year against NE. The Bears’ OL is one of the better units in the NFL but this affair will likely be low scoring…somewhere in the 17-14 range. I don’t see any of the RB really having career days here.
LT: (Average game from a Superstar) Can we just say LT at this point instead of LT2? He will do fine and rack 100 yds and a score but this will not be one of those 200 yd, 4 TD performances by any stretch of your wild Charger imagination. I can hear the owners coming into the Shark Pool now to gripe about how they lost by a couple of points and LT didn’t go nuclear…the humanity of it all.
Detroit at Oakland
Detroit defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 18 TD
Oakland defense 2006: 4.0 ypc and 15 TD
Tatum Bell: (Marginal start) Let me talk about Detroit for a minute. I see Detroit coming out of the box a lot slower than I had originally hoped for them earlier this off season. My biggest problem with the Lions though is their OL. There is a reason they stink it up year in and year out. They have a pretty solid QB, good WR even without Calvin Johnson, a pretty solid RB…what is the missing element? The Offensive Line!!! Remember when Goldie Wilson runs up on Biff after he crashes into the manure in Back to the Future? Same face I make when I look at Detroit and that OL. This might be the biggest tease since Geraldo tried to unearth Al Capone’s vault. It doesn’t matter who is starting for the Lions at RB or who they play if they can’t block. And did I mention how bad their defense could potentially be? Hard to run the ball when you are down 21-0 due to a swiss cheese secondary.
Dominic Rhodes: Suspended 1st 4 games of the season.
LaMont Jordan: (Start him)…Rhodes is out. If Jordan is healthy and recovered from his injuries of a year ago you start him. Detroit’s run defense isn’t half bad but at home I like Jordan to land in the top half of starting RB in week 1. The OL is not great but this is a decent match up for them. I wouldn’t start Jordan every week but he has little competition for the 1st 4 weeks of the season so plug him in as your RB2.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
Tampa Bay defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 11 TD
Seattle defense 2006: 4.6 ypc and 12 TD
“Cadillac” Williams: (Start him) I love him in week 1. Seattle has taken steps backwards since they played Pitt in the Super Bowl 18 months ago. I think TB will be much better on offense with their QB situation settled. Their OL is vastly improved over last year…look for a lot of progress from Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, and Dan Buenning.
Shaun Alexander: (Don’t over think it) As long as he is healthy there is no question you start the guy. His OL is not what it once was but Shaun is still an RB1 by almost all standards right now. IN PPR leagues he might be downgraded more than any other format.
Carolina at St Louis
Carolina defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 10 TD
St.Louis defense 2006: 4.9 ypc and 21 TD…OUCH!
DeShaun Foster: (Start him…or maybe not) He is supposed to be the starter so I guess we should start him…it’s a shame that in 2007 we have the same (expletive!) situation we had in 2006. It’s possible they both could be valuable this week, and it’s possible neither is valuable this week. I’m going to look into my crystal ball and pull out some stats for the two of them. Foster is going to have 18 carries for 75 yds rushing and DeAngelo will have 12 carries for 45 yds rushing but he will also have 3 receptions for another 40 yds and he will find the end zone.
DeAngelo Williams: Read above
Steven Jackson: (Solid start this week) I don’t expect crazy numbers from him this week but he’ll be fine…and so will owners that took him their drafts this year.
NY Giants at Dallas: And Sunday Night Football begins!
NYG defense 2006: 4.0 ypc and 19 TD
Dallas defense 2006: 3.9 ypc and 12 TD
Brandon Jacobs: (Bad start) You’re a braver man than I if you start him in week 1. Dallas is pretty good against the run to begin with and I think the Giants are going to be a miserable team this year. I would pass on this for right now.
Julius Jones: (Marginal start) I think he will get 15-20 touches this week but this situation is much the same as the Panthers.
MB III: (At your own risk) My best guess and that’s all it is right now is that he will be used a lot like Betts in Washington…maybe get his own series about a third of the time. I don’t think he is a shoe in at the goal line every time down either. Wade Phillips history doesn’t indicate that he likes a 2 back system or rotation.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A double header on MNF…AWESOME!!!
Baltimore defense 2006: 3.3 ypc and 5 TD
Cinci defense 2006: 4.2 ypc and 15 TD
Willis McGahee: (Great start) Should have a great start to a nice 2007 season.
Rudi Johnson: (Tough match up) I know many will start him, and he has had some success in the past but this is not a good match up on paper. If somehow he is your RB2 this week, I like him a lot more.
Arizona at San Fran: This is the 2nd half of MNF? And while I am on this topic, look at some of these games they are pumping out on MNF…TN at NO, Dal at Buf, NYG at ATL, GB at Denver, SF at Sea, TN at Den, Miami at Pitt, while on SNF we see games like SD at NE, Dal at CHI, Pitt at DEN, just seems like SNF is better in all areas including the games themselves.
AZ defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 16 TD
SF defense 2006: 4.1 ypc and 18 TD
Edge: (Start him) No reason not to. Last year was last year and I expect Whisenhunt and Grimm to get things moving on the ground game for AZ. San Fran is improved on defense but it’s not a world beater yet.
Frank Gore: (Start him) Hand seems to be fine, no reason to not uncork this guy on your roster. Not sure if it will happen right away, but I suspect Gore will be one of those RB we have to pull the tissues out for the owners on.
Enjoy and Good Luck to all week 1.
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