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RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Nice post MOP. Not much controversial in it. You seem to like Addai much more than I do, but apart from that your takes seem reasonable. The Ray Rice hype is getting overheated (reminds me of Kevan Barlow hype from a few years ago), but you're not responsible for that. What would be fun (just for the sake of a little extra zing) is if you gave us one stone cold lock of the week and one sure fire disappointment, or something like that.

 
Nice post MOP. Not much controversial in it. You seem to like Addai much more than I do, but apart from that your takes seem reasonable. The Ray Rice hype is getting overheated (reminds me of Kevan Barlow hype from a few years ago), but you're not responsible for that. What would be fun (just for the sake of a little extra zing) is if you gave us one stone cold lock of the week and one sure fire disappointment, or something like that.
You're on to something there.Seems like there is a second round of folks that are just tuning in this morning, maybe we'll get some more differing opinions on certain players.
 
Nice post MOP. Not much controversial in it. You seem to like Addai much more than I do, but apart from that your takes seem reasonable. The Ray Rice hype is getting overheated (reminds me of Kevan Barlow hype from a few years ago), but you're not responsible for that. What would be fun (just for the sake of a little extra zing) is if you gave us one stone cold lock of the week and one sure fire disappointment, or something like that.
You're on to something there.Seems like there is a second round of folks that are just tuning in this morning, maybe we'll get some more differing opinions on certain players.
Like I said you haven't said much that's controversial in your predictions, so I wouldn't expect much heated exchange. It'd be fun to see you put the :thumbup: next to one guy and the :X next to one guy to denote your stud and your dud of the week. Just think "what would hucks do?"
 
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MOP, with Westbrook "dinged up" going into week 1, do you anticipate anything from Mc Coy this week as a fill-in, didn't see it in the Philly/Carolina write-up.great work as always...
McCoy...really wasn't gonna talk about him until he does something, but I was not impressed with him at all in the preseason. I didn't see anything special form him, I didn't see anything that would indicate the rest of the NFL was sleeping on this kid in the draft, if anything it only furthers my thoughts that the 2009 RB class pales in comparison to the talent that overflowed form the 2008 class. We'll see if I am wrong but I wouldn't get excited even if you own McCoy and Westbrook misses time. That could change but right now I don't see it.
With Buckhalter gone, makes sense that McCoy takes over his role. Also, I can see them giving McCoy more carries to keep Westy fresh as the season progresses. But I agree its a wait and see type deal at the moment.Is Ward and Caddy going to be a 50/50 split..? They gave Ward a ton of money, I can't see them just letting him sit and watch.
 
Nice post MOP. Always look forward to your weekly match ups. Just to note, Addai has been avg just over 3.5 yd/carry since Wk 10 of the 2007-2008 season. Don't really see him shaping up this season, but we'll have to wait and see.

 
If you want green lighted RBs every week, I hope you drafted ADP and DWill :shrug:
Ok, so I took your advice and drafted ADP and DWill (ok so it was not in the same year) - and I have Grant as my RB3 - does anyone start Grant over DWill?
Don't start Grant against Chi.
Can you add a bit more to this? Granted he had a bulk of his yards against CHI in one game (145) but he went for 206 yards and a TD against them last year. He also went for 100 and a TD in the second game of 2007 (in the first game he wasn't the starter). I think he looks like a better than average start, so I was curious if there was something you think that dissuades me from this stance?EDIT: Maybe you just meant out of the options he has, in which case I would agree lol.
I thought that was a strange comment too. If I could play any RB against the Bears, #1 is AD, and then comes Grant.With Stewart ailing though, I think you gotta go DWill here.
I see that you are still misquoting me, which is amazing since all you had to do was hit the quote button.Please remove your signature unless you are going to edit it back to read what I wrote.
 
Ugh...I'm torn between Ronnie and Turner.

What makes you believe Brown will suddenly get lots of carries and it won't be rbbc? Also, the Phins offense hasn't looked good this preseason. Do you think that was a fluke or perhaps the o-line won't play to expectations?

 
I'm definately starting LT vs OAK. However, for my RB2 I'm torn between R. Bush vs Lions (non-PPR), K. Smith vs NO, and CJ3 vs PIT. I have a feeling gut feeling that K. Smith may outperform both Bush and CJ3 this week - but I might pop a vessel if I had to watch CJ3 blow up on national tv on Thursday nite while he was on my bench.

I'm thinking since we dont get PPR Bush should probably be eliminated from consideration. K. Smith has a juicy matchup but what if the Lions fall behind big early? Does he even get 20 carries? CJ3 has the toughest matchup by far, but I can see him getting the most looks in what should be a close game.

Who's got a 3-headed coin?

 
I'm definately starting LT vs OAK. However, for my RB2 I'm torn between R. Bush vs Lions (non-PPR), K. Smith vs NO, and CJ3 vs PIT. I have a feeling gut feeling that K. Smith may outperform both Bush and CJ3 this week - but I might pop a vessel if I had to watch CJ3 blow up on national tv on Thursday nite while he was on my bench. I'm thinking since we dont get PPR Bush should probably be eliminated from consideration. K. Smith has a juicy matchup but what if the Lions fall behind big early? Does he even get 20 carries? CJ3 has the toughest matchup by far, but I can see him getting the most looks in what should be a close game. Who's got a 3-headed coin?
The Lions don't have a very good defense. They are going to want to keep that defense off the field as much as possible. The best strategy they can do is to run early and often. So, Smith should be very involved in terms of carries early in the game. If they are successful and able to score, this will limit the impact of their porous defense.Now, it's likely the Saints high-powered O will still light these guys up and Stafford will turn it over. In that case, Smith has been pretty involved in the passing game. I wouldn't expect a ton of carries if the Lions get down, but they aren't going to pass on every single play. The Lions will still run the ball on occasion even if down big. Combine a few carries with a few receptions and he could still see close to double digit touches in the second half even if they get down.I very much like Smith in this game and would start him over both Bush and Johnson this week. I'd consider Johnson, but I'd give the edge to Smith in terms of opportunities and matchup.
 
I thought you did an awesome job with your information, picks and scores. I agree with you completely that some of the 'lines" are not wide enough, and this is the week where a guy can clean up money wise..What the heck are you doing wasting your'e time on this site, you need a bookie or at least to be in VEGAS...brother..they have VEGAS $99 flight Specials ..ONE WAY..

Ltrain

 
RamMan said:
I'm definately starting LT vs OAK. However, for my RB2 I'm torn between R. Bush vs Lions (non-PPR), K. Smith vs NO, and CJ3 vs PIT. I have a feeling gut feeling that K. Smith may outperform both Bush and CJ3 this week - but I might pop a vessel if I had to watch CJ3 blow up on national tv on Thursday nite while he was on my bench. I'm thinking since we dont get PPR Bush should probably be eliminated from consideration. K. Smith has a juicy matchup but what if the Lions fall behind big early? Does he even get 20 carries? CJ3 has the toughest matchup by far, but I can see him getting the most looks in what should be a close game. Who's got a 3-headed coin?lol you made me laugh...OUT LOUD..thanks bro..lol..
 
I thought you did an awesome job with your information, picks and scores. I agree with you completely that some of the 'lines" are not wide enough, and this is the week where a guy can clean up money wise..What the heck are you doing wasting your'e time on this site, you need a bookie or at least to be in VEGAS...brother..they have VEGAS $99 flight Specials ..ONE WAY..

Ltrain
Where?
 
I would not hesitate to play Julius Jones vs the Rams. Last season he rushed for 140 yards against them ay Qwest field. At least for this game he should get plenty of carries as I highly doubt Edge is in game shape.
How's Seattles defense??Trying to decide on the Rams matchup.
Should be fine against the Rams at home. Pretty stingy front 7 to contain Jackson, the problem is their secondary. Wouldn't be surprised to see a long TD from Avery...
 
I would not hesitate to play Julius Jones vs the Rams. Last season he rushed for 140 yards against them ay Qwest field. At least for this game he should get plenty of carries as I highly doubt Edge is in game shape.
How's Seattles defense??Trying to decide on the Rams matchup.
Should be fine against the Rams at home. Pretty stingy front 7 to contain Jackson, the problem is their secondary. Wouldn't be surprised to see a long TD from Avery...
Seattle will win with ease, however I expect Jackson to rack up the yardage. Bulger has been out all preseason so I expect them to run a lot. Seattle's CB's are on the small side and I don't think they are big fans of tackling.
 
Anyone have any input on Tennessee's run D without Haynesworth? It will obviously have some sort of negative impact without him. It will be interesting to see if Pitts will try to take advantage of this "weakness" up the middle.

I just can't see Tennessee posting the same type of eye popping D numbers without him this year but maybe I am just looking at it with FWP colored glasses.

 
Ugh...I'm torn between Ronnie and Turner.What makes you believe Brown will suddenly get lots of carries and it won't be rbbc? Also, the Phins offense hasn't looked good this preseason. Do you think that was a fluke or perhaps the o-line won't play to expectations?
Preseason is important for many reasons but you have to be careful of concluding that because a player or offense doesn't look good that it will look bad when the games count. Teams hold back on their game plans. How much did we see the Wildcat this preseason? That will make a huge difference in how Miami performs.
 
Ugh...I'm torn between Ronnie and Turner.What makes you believe Brown will suddenly get lots of carries and it won't be rbbc? Also, the Phins offense hasn't looked good this preseason. Do you think that was a fluke or perhaps the o-line won't play to expectations?
Turner all the way. Your hints at the OLine are definitely in play. I hope jake Long was not a flash in the pan. I don't think he is but there were a lot of talented LT in the draft last year. But he's a major reason they went 11-5. You can't sit Turner for Brown, no way.
 
Great Job MOP!

If Moreno is out I like the chances for Hillis to surprise as a #3RB or flex option.

Hillis should be the goal line back, great receiving/pass protection back if they are down and the hammer if they have the lead and want to eat up the clock.

 
I need some advice on who to start at Rb2 and flex (non ppr)

I have Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Ray Rice, and D Mac. I'm pretty sure i'm going to go with Rice at Rb2, but i'm stuck at the flex spot. I don't want to miss out on the Saints vs Lions matchup and want to know if anyone knows if PT will be available. If he's not, what do you guys think about going with Bell over Dmac? I know both will be splitting carries but I'm starting to lean towards Bell if PT isn't available because I think he'll definitely score. What do you guys think?

 
If Tennessee is not as strong in stopping the run, Willie Parker could have a nice night. Especially if Pitt is ahead and can grind it out in the 2nd half.

 
really stuck between Fred Jackson and Willie Parker at the Flex spot in a 0.5 PPR league.... I mind mind Fred is a safer start because he catches passes, but I don't want Willie to blow up on my bench since Steelers might be fairly pumped to be at home for the season opener, argg....

 
Great write up as usual MOP. Can you give a brother a little advice on who to start between CJ3, K. Smith, and R. Bush as my RB#2 (I've got LT vs OAK as my RB#1).

CJ3 has his worst matchup of the year tonite, K. Smith could do some damage but I'm worried about NO going up big early and Smith losing touches as Stafford starts chucking it to CJ2, and Reggie's health and possible rust just plain scares me til I see him in action. What think ye?

 
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If Tennessee is not as strong in stopping the run, Willie Parker could have a nice night. Especially if Pitt is ahead and can grind it out in the 2nd half.
I'll be starting Parker over guys like Addai, F. Taylor and McGahee. As I said in one of the other Tenn vs. Pitt threads, I don't think the Tenn D will be the same w/o Haynesworth and Pitt will be able to expose them on the ground.
 
really stuck between Fred Jackson and Willie Parker at the Flex spot in a 0.5 PPR league.... I mind mind Fred is a safer start because he catches passes, but I don't want Willie to blow up on my bench since Steelers might be fairly pumped to be at home for the season opener, argg....
I don't love the Steelers OL but Buffalo is a disaster right now. The Steelers are arguably the best run franchise in the NFL...Fred Jackson is not a sure thing. Mostly dynasty owners or people who drafted Lynch are the ones that need Freddy to come thru this weekend. Against NE? I would go with Parker but its your team.
 
Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.

 
Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.
He took a 22 yarder down to the 1 and got vultured, which would make his line look a ton better. I'm still onboard the Rice train
 
Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.
He took a 22 yarder down to the 1 and got vultured, which would make his line look a ton better. I'm still onboard the Rice train
he also had another chance to score inside the 10 (i think ball was at the 5), but apparently he's had some issues with his shoe in the early parts of the game. He slipped and couldn't stay on his feet while he was accelerating through the hole. He might've had a chance to score there also besides the 22 yarder.
 
Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.
Not sure how I wouldn't be happy with 120 yards rushing. In today's NFL that's not that easy to do and he'll get enough TDs to be a 2nd tier RB.
 
Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.
He took a 22 yarder down to the 1 and got vultured, which would make his line look a ton better. I'm still onboard the Rice train
Awesomne...I think a lot of us are kinda lickin wounds today. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE folks, don't be shy...now is the time to light me up like a Christmas tree, just do it nicely, haha. I would really like to hear from the board. Personally, I think everything is going to be overblown this week and I would hang tight for another week or two but I know there are a lot of non ADP owners that are sick tot heir tummys this afternoon. Vent if you need, that's fine by me, just don't make the mods life a headache, thanks.
 
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Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.
Not sure how I wouldn't be happy with 120 yards rushing. In today's NFL that's not that easy to do and he'll get enough TDs to be a 2nd tier RB.
Brother is moving to Germany, has nothing to do with this thread but I know you either live in Europe or have lived in Europe...waddup DD?
 
Rice was supposed to be a slam dunk this weekend. He had about 120 total yds, 2 receptions, no TDs...are owners excited about this as we look ahead to the rest of the season...I'm just asking...wanna gauge the excitement level here.
Not sure how I wouldn't be happy with 120 yards rushing. In today's NFL that's not that easy to do and he'll get enough TDs to be a 2nd tier RB.
Brother is moving to Germany, has nothing to do with this thread but I know you either live in Europe or have lived in Europe...waddup DD?
If he likes rain and pork he'll do fine.
 
Jones vs Washington...again chime in
About what I expected to see. Couple Seminole formations (aka Wildcat), Leon was very involved, but TJ looked good.Even in the first half when he had no stats to speak of, he was consistently making the first defender at the line miss. Eventually he busted a couple long ones.Jones is a nice RB2 this year IMO. Washington, depends if its PPR or return yardage leagues. Also, worth noting Leon blew the pickup on the sack where Ryans got a free run up the middle.
 
From what I've seen, the Rams need to get SJax involved in the passing game more - not a single reception. The guy is almost faster than anyone on the field and he weighs 240lbs. With a line that will need time to gel, they need to utilize this part of the game better. I liked what I saw form him on the minimal amount of carries, but Bulger rarely checked down to him. He had 14 carries, just not enough, but that has to do with the overall offense being underwhelming, and a lack of offensive scheming IMO. I think I saw enough of the game, but maybe it was the latter part where they were forced to look downfield and abandon short passes and most running plays. Would like to hear the thoughts of others?

 
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.
Out of curiosity, where do you see JJ finishing this week? There are 32 starting RBs, probably another 10-15 that see significant playing time...where does JJ rank in your mind this week?
I have not looked at the week 1 matchups yet (other than just looking through your post...which is great BTW). My draft is coming up on Wednesday night so I'm mostly concentrating on that. I could see JJ getting a TD and 80-90 yds without being surprised about it. I'm not saying his a must start or anything like that (just like you, I have some concerns about their O-line) but if you drafted him, this may be one of the best situations of the season to plug him in. If you drafted two RBs in the first 3 rounds then you probably have better options.
117 yds and a TD for Julius Jones...not too bad (and 19yds receiving)
 
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.
Out of curiosity, where do you see JJ finishing this week? There are 32 starting RBs, probably another 10-15 that see significant playing time...where does JJ rank in your mind this week?
I have not looked at the week 1 matchups yet (other than just looking through your post...which is great BTW). My draft is coming up on Wednesday night so I'm mostly concentrating on that. I could see JJ getting a TD and 80-90 yds without being surprised about it. I'm not saying his a must start or anything like that (just like you, I have some concerns about their O-line) but if you drafted him, this may be one of the best situations of the season to plug him in. If you drafted two RBs in the first 3 rounds then you probably have better options.
117 yds and a TD for Julius Jones...not too bad (and 19yds receiving)
Sell high Chihawk...sell HIGH
 
Ministry of Pain said:
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.
Sell high Chihawk...sell HIGH
I don't have him, and I pretty much agree with you. I just pointed out in my original post that if you drafted Julius Jones, this would be the week to start him.
 
Ray Rice looked great. As others noted in the thread he ran out of bounds at the GL and the td got vultured. It appeared he would have made it in if he just lowered his head but I think he thought he was already in. Anyway Rice and the Raven offensive look awesome.

 
Any possibility Fred Jackson could be a start in PPR leagues. I can see them getting behind and Jackson getting ALOT of dump off passes in that one. 6-7 catches seem like the floor.
Rhodes was cut so he should see a bulk of whatever the RB produces.
You think the NE defense is going to be the same with all the wholesale changes?I've got Jackson penciled in for a very solid week. 100 + yards and at least one score.
Good question Urban, here's the thing...they can't all score 100+ and a TD in week 1 right? I just would think there are 20 better options than Fred Jackson and a buffalo team that seems in disaaray on the offense.
:lmao:
 

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