Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hello Shark Pool!!!
What a week and kickoff to the 2008 season. We saw a lot of major injuries sustained across the league. We’ll talk about the impact of some of these and also what to look for in the coming weeks.
I always feel the need to go over some of my golden rules early in the season so folks don’t get panic stricken from 1 week. You don’t want to make rash decisions from just the 1st week but in some cases as we will discuss, changes may need to be on hand.
I talked last week about sharing some of the load with a co-writer in these threads. This week JGalligan(Josh) will be taking about half the games, mainly due to time constraints on myself. So that it’s easier to tell who is writing what game capsules, my write ups will remain in black, and Josh will have his written out in blue. We’ll see how that looks and go from there. I tried to keep our games together so it isn’t all spread out. So i will turn things over to JG right now.
Yo. Galligan here. MOP has been kind enough to offer me an invite to guest star in this fantastic and ridiculously useful weekly write-up he has going here. Naturally, I accepted both graciously and humbly. As for the way I’m going to do things – well, they aren’t going to be too different from the way MOP has done them. I’m not trying to blaze trails or anything. The biggest thing I think is that we’ll offer differing opinions, at least on the games that I highlight. Since we’re only two weeks into the season, it would be foolish to base a team’s rushing defense solely on last week’s performance. It would also be dumb not to factor it in at all – so I’ve tried to go with a good mixture of the two. Hopefully it will prove useful. Enjoy.
Let's jump to the games this week.
Oakland @ Kansas City (-4.0) (35.0)
Chiefs Rush Defense: This past Sunday the Chiefs rushing D let the Patriots combination of Lawrence Maroney and Sammy Morris run for 104 yards and 1 TD on just 20 carries. Granted they both broke some long runs to inflate the total, but Sammy Morris should have been stopped multiple times for no yards but willed his way forward a yard or two with several Chiefs defenders still attached to him. It wasn’t the worst performance by any means, and Glenn Dorsey should become a factor over time – but they still aren’t anywhere near being a respectable unit. Kansas City was fifth worst in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (130.6) and while they look to have improved, are still likely to be a favorable play for most of this season.
Justin Fargas
Last week: 18 rushes for 97 yards
As much hype as Darren McFadden has gotten the past couple months, I hope Monday night’s game smacked a couple of people upside the head. Very hard. McFadden looked solid on nearly all of his runs but Fargas was running around the field like a mad man. Fargas has the Chiefs rushing defense on his radar this Sunday, which is the same defense which I just told you was carefree at times in bringing down New England’s running backs. If Sammy Morris could drag several Chiefs defenders with him en route to a couple of more yards, I cringe to imagine what Fargas will do to them. Probably just run them over. Methinks starting Fargas against the Chiefs would be a pretty good idea.
Darren McFadden
Last week: 9 rushes for 46 yards
Justin Fargas aside, Darren McFadden had a pretty solid debut. Unfortunately, there was so much hype surrounding his first start and the “likelihood” that he would mimic Adrian Peterson’s rookie season that those 46 yards and 5.1 yards per carry was unimpressive to some. Granted these people’s opinions are one’s of people who shouldn’t be consulted for something as simple as toasting a Pop-Tart, but still. The chatter is out there. Hopefully we’ll see more carries out of McFadden this coming week and considering the Chiefs rushing defense, that could very well become a reality. He’s a stretch to bank anything too much on with Fargas still performing well, but he’s definitely an intriguing flier in a flex spot or as a possible RB3/4.
Raiders Rush Defense: The Raiders let up 110 yards and 3 rushing TDs to the Broncos trio of RBs (Young, Hall, and Pittman) this past Monday night. They were also second worst in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (145.9). Although their pass defense is likely to be the defenses biggest weak link, the rushing defense isn’t going to be mistaken for a strong link anytime soon. Good thing the defense doesn’t have to ever face its offenses duo of Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas at any time at all this season. Now that would be an ugly sight to see.
Larry Johnson
Last week: 22 rushes for 74 yards
Johnson wouldn’t stop bringing the freight train with every carry in Sunday’s game at New England. This week, he is set to line up against the Raiders defense. Patriots rushing defense > Raiders rushing defense – well, at least to me. Expect a solid day out of LJ this Sunday. So solid that talk of his return to pre-2006 form will be heard nearly everywhere you turn.
Jamaal Charles
Last week: 5 rushes for 28 yards
There’s not much to note about Charles other then there has apparently been an entire package installed in the Chief’s offense just for him. Oh, and he’s really fast. Hopefully you’re not debating starting the rook in anything less than a 16 team league, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Final Score: Kansas City 20...Oakland 14
Chicago at Carolina (-3.0) (37.5)
The Bears really came out and throttled the Colts this past weekend. I was impressed and I think we all got a good look at Matt Forte and some of the things he is going to be called upon to do this season. Meanwhile the Panthers marched into San Diego this past weekend and pulled a big upset in terms of point spread victories but many of us felt the Panthers could do just that anyways. MOP had a nice time collecting in Vegas when Delhomme pulled it out on the last play. Look out for the Panthers this season.
Matt Forte: 23/123/TD plus 3/18 thru the air…what a great way to kick off his career. Do I think he will do that every week…no way and in fact I expect him to have a rough go of it this weekend against the Panthers who have clearly defined themselves after the game last weekend. Chicago now has to travel for the 2nd week in a row, I expect a let down for them after pulling off a major upset last week. I am sure anyone that has him is going to try and wheel him out this week…try not to chase points from last week. I don’t expect Forte to come close to what he did in week 1.
Kevin Jones: With everything that Forte did, most probably overlooked that Kevin Jones had 13 carries in the game too. He only rushed for 45 yds, and Chicago was winning so we might have seen him a little more than usual. Clearly Forte is the starter here, I would not be getting cute and trying to work Kevin Jones into your line up right now.
DeAngelo Williams: 18/86 against the Chargers last week. He has about a 2:1 advantage in carries right now over Stewart. I think as long as DWill can continue to run at a high level, there is no reason to believe Stewart will move into the RB1 role at the moment. That could change but as long as Carolina is winning, this is good. I was concerned as they have a very tough schedule the 1st 3 weeks but DWill is off to a decent start. He was given a carry inside the 10 on the 2nd drive, that was really the only time the panthers were in a goal line situation for most of the day.
The Bears really shut down the Indy ground game. I don’t think they will look quite as strong this week against the Panthers but rushing yards will be harder to come by this week. I will be playing DWill in some of my dynasty leagues, but I’m not sure he is a great start in most redraft leagues. Likely your RB3, let im stay in that role until we get to the bye weeks.
J Stew: 10 carries for about 50 yards last week. The potential is all there, but this week he likely will have a rough go of it against the Bears, best to leave him on your bench for right now. He might get a shot at a short TD run though. I’ll take a chance and say that he has the better week with TD factored in than DWill does. DeAngelo will be reliant likely on yards and catches between the 20s.
Final Score: Carolina 16…Chicago 13
New York Giants at St. Louis (+8.5) (42.0)
Giants came out on fire last week, but had a hard time finishing off drives. The Rams were completely blown out 38-3 in Philly…yikes! The Giants contained Clinton Portis pretty well with 23/84 on the ground. The Rams were lit up by McNabb although I am saure Philly could ahve run more if they desired...although Westbrook and Booker did not exactly tear it up on the ground either...not sure we know enough about the Rams rush defense yet, but the pass defense is non-existent.
Brandon Jacobs : Looked great last week, was hitting the holes hard, running people over, again he looks like one of the better RB2 selections in redrafts this year. The one thing he didn’t have was a TD. The Rams were terrible last week but they were torn apart by McNabb. Will the Giants take to the air? I doubt they get away from mixing the right balance of runs and passes. Jacobs is another must start this week IMO.
Derrick Ward: Did see action but clearly the back up.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Zero carries or action last week. If the same happens this week, I doubt I mention him for awhile.
Steven Jackson: He had a bad game against a tough defense, so what? You knew going in he had some OL problems, but he is a terrific buy low candidate right now. He is the offense for the Rams. Look at his schedule down the stretch…AZ, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA, @AZ, SEA, SF…those last 3 weeks are his playoff run. He has some challenges over the next 5-6 weeks, no doubt about it, but as the weeks of average or subpar performances creeps up, he becomes a better and better buy low candidate. He will do better this week.
Final Score: NY Giants 31…St Louis 17
New Orleans at Washington (PK) (42.5)
What impact will Colston being out have on the entire NO offense? I pose that question to the SP. The Saints were able to rack up about 450+ yds on the Bucs last week, in fact they looked early on like they would blow them out until Brees gave a gift to the Bucs in the form of an interception return for a TD. The Skins meanwhile looked flat out pathetic against the Giants in the season opener. I think Jim Zorn is an early candidate to be the Cam Cameron of 2008, I'm just sayin'.
Reggie Bush: WOW!!! We have been waiting for this kind of a game from Reggie and he delivered on Sunday. I really think Shockey now over the middle is going to make a big difference. He will eat up a lot of the short balls that Bush was taking last year, and now Bush can work the ends a lot more…you saw that in the sensational catch and run he had towards the end of the game against the Bucs. Seems like a must start for now, and while I wouldn’t pencil him in for a repeat performance, you simply cannot bench this type of explosiveness. 150+ yds, TD, and 8 catches last week…had to be the near the top of the food chain.
Pierre Thomas: My bad in not at least talking about him last week but I felt Deuce had secured this spot. Thomas had 50+ yds and also 2/11 thru the air…seems like he is going to touch the ball between 10-15 times a game. Not starter material but as we move into the bye weeks and we see more and more of him, you need to keep him on your radar…likely available in most redraft leagues.
Clinton Portis: Getting plenty of touches, will have a much better game this week against the Saints who are not going to be able to shut him down. Another great buy low candidate IMO. He touched the ball 23 times last week and was targeted OOTB, he is the entire offense for the Skins right now, if he had scored a TD lasst week, we would be singing his praises.
Final Score: New Orleans 24…Washington 20
Green Bay at Detroit (+3.0) (45.0)
Ryan Grant : Start Him!!! He was pretty alright against the Vikes, had a huge run late in the game that really blew these numbers up, no catches I might add. He should tear apart the Lions this week who allowed Michael Turner to bust out for 220 yds and 2 TD in his 1st start, but also allowed Norwood almost another 100 yds and a score on the ground too. Grant won’t post those type of numbers but he is a great start this week.
Brandon Jackson: 7/12, 3/18…not much value to FF owners but good to have if you own Grant. Don’t think for a second that he will have Norwood type numbers this week. Leave him on your bench where he belongs.
Kevin Smith: 80 yds and a TD in his debut…including 4/32 thru the air. The Lions defense is one of the worst in the NFL so it is likely they will be playing from behind, and the fact he can catch and Rudi can’t, means Kevin Smith will be the RB to have in Detroit. I would say you start him for right now.
Final Score: Green Bay 28…Detroit 17
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-6.0)(38.0)
As advertised, the Bills were tremendous in their demolishing of Seattle last week. The defense, offense, and special teams looked really good. Buffalo is competing not only for a WC playoff but they might be competing for the division. We will learn a lot more about them in Jax this week. The heat and humidity will play a major role in what happens on Sunday.
The Jags…I hate to say it but with no interior OL left, the ground game is going to stay grounded. I am not going to be optimistic about Taylor and MJD very much on a weekly basis.
Marshawn Lynch: The Jags were ripped by the Titans in week 1 last year but bounced back week 2. They have sustained a lot of injuries, not sure how that will play out with their defense. One would think they will try even harder because points will be harder to come by. But to focus on lynch, he did very well last week and I see him and the Bills continuing to do well this year. Lynch will likely not light up the Jags, but he is capable of 100 yds and a score almost every week he takes the field.
MJD: I am going to list him 1st because I believe the Jags will be force to throw the ball a lot more now than they would like. But the fact is they were hoping to make a big run this year and they got torn up like I have never seen on the interior of their OL. MJD will still have value because he can catch the ball. I expect the Jags to start throwing a lot over the next few weeks as they try and mount some offense.
Fred Taylor: I give him credit based on his career but with no blocking in the “A” gaps, his game will take a major hit. I can’t honestly see starting him…ever this season. He already was not scoring TDs over the past few years, not a lot of catches, take away his running between the Tackles, what have you got?
Final Score: Buffalo 19…Jacksonville 16
Indy at Minnesota (+2.0)(43.0)
The Colts looked completely out of it this past week. I actually posted preseason that 9-7 or worse is not out of the question for the Colts this year. I know it was only 1 week, but their running game looks terrible, and I also mentioned in my RB preseason thread that the Colts OL is built to pass block more than run block. Jeff Saturday has been injured, this might be making a bigger impact on the running game
The Vikings had their chances to win the game in Green Bay, the defense was on fire at times…they were shutting the GB offense down till Rodgers walked on water and found Jennings deep, then he hits that miracle TD catch on check down 4/5…and in the 4th quarter the Pack had only gotten off about 3-6 plays in the 2nd half to that point. I still think thye will show their strength and why people were as high on them as they were.
Joseph Addai: He was shaken up last week against the Bears, I don’t see why he won’t be playing this week. Will he have a great game? I doubt it, but I don’t think you can bench him just yet.
Adrian Peterson : He was misused at times during the game this past Sunday. I don’t believe that will happen this week and I expect him to have close to 150 total yds and 1-2 TD this week.
Chester Taylor: ADP had a 3.5:1 ratio in rushing attempts. I wasn’t expecting quite that big a difference but let’s see if that trend continues. Keep him on your rosters, he will still have some good games this season.
Final Score: Minnesota 20…Indy 17
Tennessee @ Cincinnati (-1.5)(38.0)
Bengals Rush Defense: How was the Week One Bengals rushing D similar to a door knob and a prostitute? They let everybody have a turn! Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice were the main RBs in the Ravens rushing attack on Sunday and they ran for 86 and 64 yards respectively. Marc Clayton and Joe Flacco didn’t get as many rushing attempts against the Bengals D, but Clayton took his reverse handoff 42 yards to the house and Flacco scrambled for 37 yards and a TD on 4 scramble/runs. All I have to say is, wow. Wow. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting the Bengals defense to have a solid rushing defense or anything but that, even if it was just the first week, that is just wow. They let up an average of 118.3 yards per game last year as a rushing unit, so it doesn’t look like they’ve improved too much for 2008. Look on the bright side, though. If you see CIN at all next to any of your RBs on any given week – Cha-ching!
LenDale White
Last week: 15 rushes for 40 yards and 1 TD
Despite impressing many people (with myself included) with his 2007 performance, LenDale White looks to have regressed back to his role as ‘Thunder’ that he had filled at USC. Absolutely do not take that as a bad thing, though, because White will still break some for big gains and be the team’s primary goal line back.
Chris Johnson
Last week: 15 rushes for 93 yards
Sure, it’s not even Week Two yet and pretty much anything could happen, but boy did Chris Johnson look impressive. The Jaguars rushing defense isn’t exactly what you could call a pushover and Johnson finds himself with one of the most favorable matchups in terms of running the ball that he’ll face all year. If there was a way that I could both highlight Chris Johnsons name in green AND have it pop out 3-D style on your screen to emphasize how much I think you should start him then I would. But I can’t, so I just put it in verbal form instead.
Titans Rush Defense: The Titans rushing defense was fifth in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (92.4). Last week, they let up the least amount of rushing yards in the entire league, holding the potent and dangerous RB duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to a mere 31 yards. Granted, they only had 14 carries total between them, but that just suggests the amount of respect Jack Del Rio had for this talented unit. I think it’s safe to say they’ll be a tough play for RBs all year long.
Chris Perry
Last week: 18 rushes for 37 yards
As true as it is that Perry wasn’t given much to work with blocking wise on Sunday and that he still could prove to be a solid fantasy RB, he’s facing one of the toughest rushing defenses in the entire league this coming Sunday. Unless you have absolutely no other option, it would probably behoove you NOT to start him. The exact opposite for Chris Johnson and the 3-D visual applies here. Imagine Perry’s name being highlighted in red with alarm sirens wailing in the background. To translate into fortune cookie speak: Starting him will not bring you good tidings.
San Fran at Seattle (-7.5)(39.0)
Seattle looked absolutely terrible in their 1st game of the season. They really jsut don't have the skill position weapons right now to compete, and their defense is probably better at home than when they travel 3 time zones to play a 1:00 game on a Sunday. Meanwhile the Niners didn't look all that great on Sunday either. Gore was able to make some noise but I think I saw where JTO had like 20 passes for the entire game. Mike Martz offense, 20 attempts?
Frank Gore: He had a great game last week, but the Seahawks are at home this week. They are a different team inside that nest they play in up in Seattle. I think Gore will have a decent game but I don’t see him racking up 150 yds in this one. The season could be on the line for Seattle this weekend.
Julius Jones: SF was pretty good against the run last week. I don’t think JJ is a great play, and he might even be sharing carries with Duckett. I have no idea what the game plan will be for Seattle but I am thinking there will be a lengthy short passing game…JJ could benefit from that if they get him involved OOTB.
TJ Duckett: Has to be other options on your roster.
Justin Forsett: Was cut this week…FYI. Might make it back on the practice squad.
Final Score: Seattle 9…SF 7
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-8.5)(38.0)
That great feeling the Falcons had this past Sunday trouncing the Lions will not transpire to a victory this week. In fact I expect a really loud thud as they come back to reality and get rolled in Tampa this weekend.
Michael Turner: We called for a big game last week, he delivered. This week, I think he will be hard pressed to even make half of that on the road in a very hostile environment where the team, fans, and coaches will be out for b-l-o-o-d!!! I understand you are going to chase last week an start him, but I expect Turner to have a very average game, no top10 appearance this week. And that is just fine because you never thought he was going to produce top10 when you drafted him. He will have some more big games but not against real defenses. The Bucs were not great last week in NO, but at home this week I expect a very strong performance as they absolutely will be desperate to stay away from 0-2.
Jerious Norwood: He is not the starter, not going to be the starter, and he isn’t going to produce 100 yds and a TD in relief every week. The Bucs are not the Lions on defense and I doub Norwood will touch the ball 10 times this week.
Earnest Graham : 10 carries for 90 yds, right? Not sure why he wasn’t used more but expect a big dose of him this weekend. He is a must start if he is on your roster.
Warrick Dunn: Had some stats in relief of Graham, look for that to continue but I don’t expect him to crack the top20 this week. He might make a flex option on bye weeks, not a lot more than that right now. Graham will be featured a lot this week.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 24…Atlanta 10
New England @ New York Jets (-2.5)(37.5)
Jets Rush Defense: Despite obvious counter-arguments for the contrary, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown can be generally regarded as a pretty solid duo. They didn’t prove to be lethal or anything last week, but each has shown at different points in his career that he can light it up. The Jets rushing D held the pair to just under 50 yards and no TDs on 16 carries. That’s not a ton of carries, but the Dolphins probably realized that they weren’t going to get anywhere trying to run against Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis (among others). The off-season acquisition of Alan Faneca garnered a lot of attention and deservedly so, but Kris Jenkins may prove to be the team’s most valuable off-season addition when all is said and done. All in all, it definitely looks like the Jets won’t be an easy matchup for opposing RBs this season.
Lawrence Maroney
Last week: 10 rushes for 51 yards
Tom Brady’s IR woes may have opened up an opportunistic door for Maroney were it not for Sammy Morris solid, hard-charging performance this past Sunday. Maroney looked fresh, crisp and had burst – but on a team with three other capable RBs, and everything pointing in the direction that the team will utilize all of them, expecting more than 12-14 carries out of Maroney would be foolish. Until he or the team proves otherwise and he gets or they give him the majority of the workload, he just isn’t top fantasy RB material. Unless of course your plagued with injuries and have no other place to turn. In that case, I don’t know what to tell you. Go surf the waiver wire.
Sammy Morris
Last week: 10 rushes for 53 yards and 1 TD
Sammy Morris, all thirty-one years of him, was arguably the most impressive RB at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. His runs should have been filmed, compiled into a videotape and labeled, “What happens when a RB doesn’t stop moving his legs.” It would make a great instructional tool. The Jets are a bit better at tackling then the Chiefs are so it’s up in the air what kind of day Morris will have. But one thing’s for sure, he’s not going to stop bull rushing forward – even if he gets clogged up at the line of scrimmage. He’s worth keeping an eye on if you’re in deeper leagues as he could eventually beat out Jordan for the team’s primary goal line back.
Patriots Rush Defense: The Patriots running D let up 102 rushing yards on 27 total carries to Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles on Sunday. Not stunning, I know, but it would have been a lot less had it not been for Larry Johnson’s complete disregard for his own well-being. LJ brought all he could on every single rush, and began to break some runs here and there towards the end of the game. Still though, holding one of the best running backs in the league to 3.4 yards per carry is no small feat. On the other hand, LJ didn’t have the best offensive line blocking for him either. For now, it’s probably a safe bet to regard the Patriots rushing D as a tad above average.
Thomas Jones
Last week: 22 rushes for 101 yards and 1 TD
So that’s what Thomas Jones can do behind a talented offensive line. Not that it should be surprising since he had a pretty good year last year considering the shoddy blocking in front of him. While TJ isn’t more talented than LJ, the Jets offensive line IS better than the Chiefs’. The Patriots run D hasn’t proven to be good enough yet to send warning flags up in a case like Jones’, so he should be a good bet for a mediocre day at worst (50-60 rushing yards).
Final Score: New York Jets 20...New England 17
San Diego @ Denver (+2.0)(44.5)
Broncos rush defense: Denver, who was one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire league last year, made some additions to its front seven this past off-season – none of which appeared to have helped very much in the teams Monday night matchup against the Raiders. Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden combined to run for 143 yards on 27 carries on them, with Fargas looking to have no problem in his quest for nearly five and a half yards per carry. If you add those two things together, what you’re NOT going to find is a lot of promise for the rushing D this season.
LaDainian Tomlinson
Last week: 21 rushes for 97 yards
Tomlinson is currently listed as probably with a toe injury, but barring another non-football related injury, should be on the field come Sunday afternoon. He was solid in a Week One effort against the Panthers, although he didn’t look like the L.T. of yore – at least in terms of his nose for the end zone. You’d be clutching at straws looking into this one too much – if you have LT, then you start him, or may you forever be made fun of in your league.
Chargers rush defense: The Chargers were a solid, middle-of-the-pack, rushing defense in 2007. Not many additions or subtractions took place, other than defensive anchor Shawn Merriman being lost for the season immediately after Week One. The unit was tested in its first matchup, eventually giving up 139 yards on 28 carries to the Panthers’ lethal running duo of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Although Merriman played some of Sunday’s game, he was plagued by the injury that would sideline him for the season and wasn’t too much of an impact. Losing him for the year definitely drops their stock farther down then the mid-point mark it was at previously. I’m sure you could have figured that out for yourself, but hey, sometimes it’s best to see it spelled out in written word.
Selvin Young and Andre Hall
Last week: 7 rushes for 36 yards and 1 TD (Young) – 10 rushes for 61 yards (Hall)
It’s the same old, same old with the Broncos this year. Both of the primary backs (all three if you count Pittman’s two TD performance) had pretty good days but failed to get the bulk of the carry attention. Young ended up edging out Hall for the better fantasy day thanks to his TD, but Hall won the yardage battle. Neither is a horrible start, and with the Chargers up next for the team, could be expected to put up about the same amount of points as they did in Week One. Always proceed with caution though. This is Mike Shanahan, after all.
Final Score: San Diego 27...Denver 24
Baltimore @ Houston (-5.0)(38.0)
Texans rush defense: The Texans rushing defense let up 138 yards and three TDs on 25 carries to Willie Parker ALONE this past Sunday. That’s right; he put up that line all by himself. I’m not even going to factor in Rashard Mendenhall’s 28 yards, but you can if you want. The Texans were a below average rushing defense in 2007, and didn’t do too much to significantly boost that half of the defense during the off-season. I’ve tried to think of a legitimate reason to try and explain away why they let Willie Parker have the best game of his career against him and I didn’t come up with much. The only thing that would make a little bit of sense is that Willie Parker was just bull#### that everyone had downgraded him so much and were writing him off as the eventual backup to Rashard Mendenhall. I mean, if that happened to me – I’d be pretty pissed, too. Even so, that doesn’t mean the Texans should have let him take out his frustrations on them all game long. He tripled his 2007 TD total for crying out loud! When does that EVER happen?!
Willis McGahee
Last week: Did Not Play
No one knows how much McGahee will play this Sunday, probably not even head coach John Harbaugh. The other running backs proved they could carry the load last week, even if it was against the bungling Bengals. So unless you have no other options at all, it would be wise of you to stay away from McGahee for at least one more week.
Ray Rice
Last week: 22 rushes for 64 yards
Rice’s NFL debut wasn’t astounding or anything, but it wasn’t bad with all things considered. He did have a rookie QB in front of him after all. It remains to be seen how McClain’s strong Week One performance will affect Rice once McGahee returns to a healthy form, but with McGahee’s participation in doubt for Week Two, Rice could have a surprisingly impressive day. Not the best start unless your hurtin’ for certain, though.
Le’Ron McClain
Last week: 19 rushes for 86 yards
You’d be blatantly lying if you said that you saw McClain’s 2008 debut coming. I didn’t even know how to spell his first name properly until a few moments ago. The kid is only 23 though, and looked pretty impressive – even if it was against the Bengals. It’s highly unlikely you have McClain on your team, so at this point in time it would be wise to keep an eye or two on how he performs in Week Two.
Ravens rush defense: Baltimore was second only to Minnesota as the best rushing defense in the league last year. They didn’t lose anybody from last season in terms of the front seven and although they are getting up there in age, still look to be a strong unit in 2008. The Ravens held Chris Perry and Kenny Watson to 55 total yards on 21 combined carries. Although to be fair, the Bengals offense didn’t do anything at all to throw its running game a bone. Nor did the offensive line look interested in actually opening up what you could call decent running holes. All in all, the majority of the Ravens defense may be getting AARP solicitations in the mail, but it looks like they’ve still got it for one more year at least.
Steve Slaton
Last week: 13 rushes for 43 yards
Surprise, surprise, Ahman Green is injured! I’ll admit, I didn’t think it would happen so soon, but it was almost inevitable. In the wake of this news however, rookie Steve Slaton has been named the team’s starting RB for Week Two. He didn’t look incredibly impressive last week, although it’s worth noting he was rushing against one of the top rushing defenses in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers. It won’t get much easier with the Ravens on tap, but he’s going to be the starter and is going to get his carries. Not too much of a stretch to start over lesser-upside candidates.
Final Score: Looks like this game could be canceled...I don't know how they would ever make this game up, but that is the current rumor floating about.
Miami @ Arizona (-7.0)(39.5)
Cardinals Rush Defense: On just 14 carries Frank Gore ran for 96 yards and 1 TD. It probably would have been a lot more had the 49ers not been forced to pass, being down 20-10 for most of the second half and all. With his 41 yard TD scamper taken out of the equation, Gore still averaged 4.2 yards per carry. And since those long TD scampers absolutely count in fantasy football, the Cardinals defense may prove to regress a bit as a rushing unit from last year. Definitely don’t view them as a strong rushing D until they prove us otherwise.
Ronnie Brown
Last week: 6 rushes for 23 yards
We expected Brown to get off to a slow start due to his getting back to game speed after injury and all, and he didn’t look TOO bad last week against the Jets. He does get a softer rushing defense this week in the Cardinals, though, so he should get more carries and yards in the Dolphins Week Two matchup.
Ricky Williams
Last week: 10 rushes for 24 yards
Williams’s contributions as a receiving back aside, his 2008 debut wasn’t what you could call impressive. He’s serviceable at best and should offer you a decent 6-8 points on a good week with reception yards factored in, but once Ronnie Brown gets back to full speed, Williams will surely take the back seat. He could have a good day against the Cardinals while the team slowly realizes Brown deserves the majority of the carries, but it’s not something I would feel comfortable betting on.
Dolphins Rush Defense: The Dolphins rushing defense was LAST in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (153.5) and that was WITH Jason Taylor on the team. I know Taylor is known more for his pass-rushing skills, but his presence had to count for at least something in the rushing game. This past Sunday, the Dolphins defense let up 101 yards and a TD on 22 carries to Thomas Jones, who looked the exact same as last year except now with a better offense line. Yes, they were facing a talented offensive line and RB, but that would only factor in if the defense hadn’t sucked so much last year. They haven’t shown anything so far this season to prove that the letters MIA on a RBs schedule will not bring a huge grin to his face.
Edgerrin James
Last week: 26 rushes for 100 yards
Edge was downgraded and frowned upon all off-season, especially with the emergence of the talented youngster Tim Hightower as his backup. However, James proved he still had some diesel left in the tank and gained exactly 100 yards to the absolute delight of owners like myself who get bonus points at the century mark. Those same owners are also likely delighting in the fact that James finds himself against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league this week. I give him my recommendation.
Tim Hightower
Last week: 8 rushes for 13 yards and 1 TD
Until Edge proves that it would be beneficial to the team that he gets less carries, Hightower’s value remains as a goal line back only. And since it doesn’t look like Edge will slow down anytime soon, Hightower is definitely worth holding onto in dynasty leagues – but would only be worth a high RB start should James get injured.
Final Score: Arizona 34...Miami 17
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+6.0)(45.0)
Browns rush defense: The Browns gave away the team’s best defensive player in Leigh Bodden in order to sure up their defensive line, which was the major reason they had one of the worst running defenses last year. In exchange for Bodden, the Browns got the mammoth yet mercurial under-achiever Shaun Rogers. They also acquired DT Corey Williams from the Packers, who along with Rogers had many believing the Browns had made the right move. While it’s probably unfair to try and gauge how they’re going to fare this season based on the fact they were steamrolled by Marion ’The Barbarian’ Barber all game. Still though, it’s never a good sign for the future when you let up 142 rushing yards and 3 TDs. I don’t care WHO was running the ball.
Willie Parker
Last week: 25 rushes for 138 yards and 3 TDs
Well, that was definitely unexpected. I did think Parker was being downgraded too harshly but never in my wildest imagination did I think he would have the day that he did. It gets even better in the horizon, with the Cleveland Brown’s next up on the Steelers list. Will he put up similar numbers to Week One? It’s unlikely, at least in terms of TDs, but he could definitely eclipse the 100 yard mark for the second week in a row against the Browns front seven.
Rashard Mendenhall...MOP does not agree with the green light here, but I also respect the opinion of JG, so you all can discuss this with him...if it hits he is gonna look like a genius.
Last week: 10 rushes for 28 yards
Had Parker not busted out into his career day, Mendenhall probably would have gotten some more touches to show what he could do. With Parker likely to fall a bit back to earth this week, or at least in its general vicinity, Mendenhall should see more work than he did against the Texans. And that may bode well considering those who will be trying to tackle him.
Steelers rush defense: Besides the elite Vikings and Ravens rushing defenses last year, the Steelers were arguably the next best. They let up a hair less than 90 yards per game average as well as a mere 6 rushing TDs, which was tied for the least in the NFL in 2007. The defense remains largely the same this year and they looked just as impressive in their first game of 2008. Taking Ahman Green out of the equation, since he is basically his own worst rush defense due to injuries, the Steelers held rookie RB Steve Slaton to 43 yards on 13 carries.
Jamal Lewis
Last week: 13 rushes for 62 yards
With the Browns passing attack leaving much to be desired, Lewis desperately needs for it to get back into 2007 form. Without such a strong passing attack causing defenses to drop some extra bodies back into coverage, Lewis isn’t going to have the season that he had last year. Plain and simple. Even if the passing game does get back on track, then Lewis is unlikely to do very much against a tough Steelers rush defense. I would stay away this week -- far, far away.
Final Score: Cleveland 21...Pittsburgh 20
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-7.0) (47.0)
Cowboys rush defense: The Cowboys run defense didn’t have too much to worry about this past Sunday, with the Browns offense dead-set on working out the rust in its passing game. They didn’t shut Jamal Lewis down by any means, but did contain him for 62 yards on 13 carries. Had the Boys been more focused on shutting Lewis down, he likely would have had a much smaller yardage total. They were easily in the top ten rushing defenses of 2007, finishing tenth with just under 95 yards per game average. No matter the current status of the rushing defense, though, they have quite the test ahead of them on Monday night.
Brian Westbrook
Last week: 19 rushes for 91 yards and 1 TD
Brian Westbrook is one of the few running backs in the league who I really don’t much weight on in regards to the caliber of the defense he is facing that week. The Cowboys have a top notch defensive unit, but Westbrook has proven many times that it doesn’t matter how much a team focuses their game plan on him, he’s still going to produce. There’s no reason to expect anything different on Monday night.
Eagles rush defense: The Eagles rushing defense held Stephen Jackson to exactly 40 yards on 14 carries this past Sunday. This may have been due to Jackson’s belated arrival this season due to his holdout, but also may have been due to the tenacity of the Eagles defensive unit. The team was seventh best in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game and only lost DE Jevon Kearse this past off-season. Call me crazy, but I’m thinking they’re going to end up being just as tough as they were last year.
Marion Barber III
Last week: 16 rushes for 80 yards and 2 TDs
Never before has someone’s nickname so closely described their playing style than Marion Barbers’: The Barbarian. The guy is nuts. He just throws himself forward at top speed with absolutely no regard for his body at all. Just more yards. And never mind when he’s near the end zone. You’d think that he thought the last person in the end zone was going to be killed or something. Personally, he’s my favorite RB in the league. However, the same reasons that he’s called the Barbarian are also his biggest risk factors. Believe it or not, the man is not made of metal. He can and will get injured with that running style as he proved by nearly breaking his own ribs in Week One. Barber finds himself with tough Eagles rushing defense ahead of him in Week Two, but I doubt that he’s very worried about it. The Eagles defense is good, but it’s going to take a brick wall to shut Barber down.
Felix Jones
Last week: 9 rushes for 62 yards and 1 TD
With so many weapons on the Cowboys offense, Jones is going to be overlooked even after he proves to everyone that it’s not a smart thing to do. It’s like he’s the exact opposite of Julius Jones. FxJones is likely to see a lot of beat up and wheezing defenders when filling on for Barber. As for his next matchup, Jones is unlikely to see as much success as he did last week but will definitely get more touches. We’ll have a very good gauge of Jones’ long-term season talent come Tuesday morning.
MOP would like to thank JGalligan for all his effort and hard work this week.
I also would like to recognize the victims of 9/11. Today marks 7 years since those deadly and horrific attacks on the United States. Whether you vote on the Left, Right, or down the middle, I think we all can agree that the events of 9/11 were a tragedy. The late Chris Thomas who was a news anchor in Tampa for many years and hosted one of my favorite sports radio shows always said..."tell the people you love how much you love them, because you never know what tomorrow may bring." I like to stay focused on football in all the SP threads but today is a different day. So after your done gathering info, getting the line ups set, and planning your Sunday parties...make sure you take the time to let the people that are special in your life how much you love them.
We have a lot of info and ground to cover this week, so please post away and ask questions. Josh and myself will be more than happy to help. Again I encourage you to not post WDIS types, but if you let us know who you are starting and why, those type of posts are helpful and will further discussion in here. We had just short of 9,000 hits last week, and I think that is likely close to a record for anything I have put up in the weekly RB threads, I thank you so much for coming in and reading this.
Good Luck to all of you this weekend!!!
What a week and kickoff to the 2008 season. We saw a lot of major injuries sustained across the league. We’ll talk about the impact of some of these and also what to look for in the coming weeks.
I always feel the need to go over some of my golden rules early in the season so folks don’t get panic stricken from 1 week. You don’t want to make rash decisions from just the 1st week but in some cases as we will discuss, changes may need to be on hand.
I talked last week about sharing some of the load with a co-writer in these threads. This week JGalligan(Josh) will be taking about half the games, mainly due to time constraints on myself. So that it’s easier to tell who is writing what game capsules, my write ups will remain in black, and Josh will have his written out in blue. We’ll see how that looks and go from there. I tried to keep our games together so it isn’t all spread out. So i will turn things over to JG right now.
Yo. Galligan here. MOP has been kind enough to offer me an invite to guest star in this fantastic and ridiculously useful weekly write-up he has going here. Naturally, I accepted both graciously and humbly. As for the way I’m going to do things – well, they aren’t going to be too different from the way MOP has done them. I’m not trying to blaze trails or anything. The biggest thing I think is that we’ll offer differing opinions, at least on the games that I highlight. Since we’re only two weeks into the season, it would be foolish to base a team’s rushing defense solely on last week’s performance. It would also be dumb not to factor it in at all – so I’ve tried to go with a good mixture of the two. Hopefully it will prove useful. Enjoy.
Let's jump to the games this week.
Oakland @ Kansas City (-4.0) (35.0)
Chiefs Rush Defense: This past Sunday the Chiefs rushing D let the Patriots combination of Lawrence Maroney and Sammy Morris run for 104 yards and 1 TD on just 20 carries. Granted they both broke some long runs to inflate the total, but Sammy Morris should have been stopped multiple times for no yards but willed his way forward a yard or two with several Chiefs defenders still attached to him. It wasn’t the worst performance by any means, and Glenn Dorsey should become a factor over time – but they still aren’t anywhere near being a respectable unit. Kansas City was fifth worst in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (130.6) and while they look to have improved, are still likely to be a favorable play for most of this season.
Justin Fargas
Last week: 18 rushes for 97 yards
As much hype as Darren McFadden has gotten the past couple months, I hope Monday night’s game smacked a couple of people upside the head. Very hard. McFadden looked solid on nearly all of his runs but Fargas was running around the field like a mad man. Fargas has the Chiefs rushing defense on his radar this Sunday, which is the same defense which I just told you was carefree at times in bringing down New England’s running backs. If Sammy Morris could drag several Chiefs defenders with him en route to a couple of more yards, I cringe to imagine what Fargas will do to them. Probably just run them over. Methinks starting Fargas against the Chiefs would be a pretty good idea.
Darren McFadden
Last week: 9 rushes for 46 yards
Justin Fargas aside, Darren McFadden had a pretty solid debut. Unfortunately, there was so much hype surrounding his first start and the “likelihood” that he would mimic Adrian Peterson’s rookie season that those 46 yards and 5.1 yards per carry was unimpressive to some. Granted these people’s opinions are one’s of people who shouldn’t be consulted for something as simple as toasting a Pop-Tart, but still. The chatter is out there. Hopefully we’ll see more carries out of McFadden this coming week and considering the Chiefs rushing defense, that could very well become a reality. He’s a stretch to bank anything too much on with Fargas still performing well, but he’s definitely an intriguing flier in a flex spot or as a possible RB3/4.
Raiders Rush Defense: The Raiders let up 110 yards and 3 rushing TDs to the Broncos trio of RBs (Young, Hall, and Pittman) this past Monday night. They were also second worst in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (145.9). Although their pass defense is likely to be the defenses biggest weak link, the rushing defense isn’t going to be mistaken for a strong link anytime soon. Good thing the defense doesn’t have to ever face its offenses duo of Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas at any time at all this season. Now that would be an ugly sight to see.
Larry Johnson
Last week: 22 rushes for 74 yards
Johnson wouldn’t stop bringing the freight train with every carry in Sunday’s game at New England. This week, he is set to line up against the Raiders defense. Patriots rushing defense > Raiders rushing defense – well, at least to me. Expect a solid day out of LJ this Sunday. So solid that talk of his return to pre-2006 form will be heard nearly everywhere you turn.
Jamaal Charles
Last week: 5 rushes for 28 yards
There’s not much to note about Charles other then there has apparently been an entire package installed in the Chief’s offense just for him. Oh, and he’s really fast. Hopefully you’re not debating starting the rook in anything less than a 16 team league, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Final Score: Kansas City 20...Oakland 14
Chicago at Carolina (-3.0) (37.5)
The Bears really came out and throttled the Colts this past weekend. I was impressed and I think we all got a good look at Matt Forte and some of the things he is going to be called upon to do this season. Meanwhile the Panthers marched into San Diego this past weekend and pulled a big upset in terms of point spread victories but many of us felt the Panthers could do just that anyways. MOP had a nice time collecting in Vegas when Delhomme pulled it out on the last play. Look out for the Panthers this season.
Matt Forte: 23/123/TD plus 3/18 thru the air…what a great way to kick off his career. Do I think he will do that every week…no way and in fact I expect him to have a rough go of it this weekend against the Panthers who have clearly defined themselves after the game last weekend. Chicago now has to travel for the 2nd week in a row, I expect a let down for them after pulling off a major upset last week. I am sure anyone that has him is going to try and wheel him out this week…try not to chase points from last week. I don’t expect Forte to come close to what he did in week 1.
Kevin Jones: With everything that Forte did, most probably overlooked that Kevin Jones had 13 carries in the game too. He only rushed for 45 yds, and Chicago was winning so we might have seen him a little more than usual. Clearly Forte is the starter here, I would not be getting cute and trying to work Kevin Jones into your line up right now.
DeAngelo Williams: 18/86 against the Chargers last week. He has about a 2:1 advantage in carries right now over Stewart. I think as long as DWill can continue to run at a high level, there is no reason to believe Stewart will move into the RB1 role at the moment. That could change but as long as Carolina is winning, this is good. I was concerned as they have a very tough schedule the 1st 3 weeks but DWill is off to a decent start. He was given a carry inside the 10 on the 2nd drive, that was really the only time the panthers were in a goal line situation for most of the day.
The Bears really shut down the Indy ground game. I don’t think they will look quite as strong this week against the Panthers but rushing yards will be harder to come by this week. I will be playing DWill in some of my dynasty leagues, but I’m not sure he is a great start in most redraft leagues. Likely your RB3, let im stay in that role until we get to the bye weeks.
J Stew: 10 carries for about 50 yards last week. The potential is all there, but this week he likely will have a rough go of it against the Bears, best to leave him on your bench for right now. He might get a shot at a short TD run though. I’ll take a chance and say that he has the better week with TD factored in than DWill does. DeAngelo will be reliant likely on yards and catches between the 20s.
Final Score: Carolina 16…Chicago 13
New York Giants at St. Louis (+8.5) (42.0)
Giants came out on fire last week, but had a hard time finishing off drives. The Rams were completely blown out 38-3 in Philly…yikes! The Giants contained Clinton Portis pretty well with 23/84 on the ground. The Rams were lit up by McNabb although I am saure Philly could ahve run more if they desired...although Westbrook and Booker did not exactly tear it up on the ground either...not sure we know enough about the Rams rush defense yet, but the pass defense is non-existent.
Brandon Jacobs : Looked great last week, was hitting the holes hard, running people over, again he looks like one of the better RB2 selections in redrafts this year. The one thing he didn’t have was a TD. The Rams were terrible last week but they were torn apart by McNabb. Will the Giants take to the air? I doubt they get away from mixing the right balance of runs and passes. Jacobs is another must start this week IMO.
Derrick Ward: Did see action but clearly the back up.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Zero carries or action last week. If the same happens this week, I doubt I mention him for awhile.
Steven Jackson: He had a bad game against a tough defense, so what? You knew going in he had some OL problems, but he is a terrific buy low candidate right now. He is the offense for the Rams. Look at his schedule down the stretch…AZ, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA, @AZ, SEA, SF…those last 3 weeks are his playoff run. He has some challenges over the next 5-6 weeks, no doubt about it, but as the weeks of average or subpar performances creeps up, he becomes a better and better buy low candidate. He will do better this week.
Final Score: NY Giants 31…St Louis 17
New Orleans at Washington (PK) (42.5)
What impact will Colston being out have on the entire NO offense? I pose that question to the SP. The Saints were able to rack up about 450+ yds on the Bucs last week, in fact they looked early on like they would blow them out until Brees gave a gift to the Bucs in the form of an interception return for a TD. The Skins meanwhile looked flat out pathetic against the Giants in the season opener. I think Jim Zorn is an early candidate to be the Cam Cameron of 2008, I'm just sayin'.
Reggie Bush: WOW!!! We have been waiting for this kind of a game from Reggie and he delivered on Sunday. I really think Shockey now over the middle is going to make a big difference. He will eat up a lot of the short balls that Bush was taking last year, and now Bush can work the ends a lot more…you saw that in the sensational catch and run he had towards the end of the game against the Bucs. Seems like a must start for now, and while I wouldn’t pencil him in for a repeat performance, you simply cannot bench this type of explosiveness. 150+ yds, TD, and 8 catches last week…had to be the near the top of the food chain.
Pierre Thomas: My bad in not at least talking about him last week but I felt Deuce had secured this spot. Thomas had 50+ yds and also 2/11 thru the air…seems like he is going to touch the ball between 10-15 times a game. Not starter material but as we move into the bye weeks and we see more and more of him, you need to keep him on your radar…likely available in most redraft leagues.
Clinton Portis: Getting plenty of touches, will have a much better game this week against the Saints who are not going to be able to shut him down. Another great buy low candidate IMO. He touched the ball 23 times last week and was targeted OOTB, he is the entire offense for the Skins right now, if he had scored a TD lasst week, we would be singing his praises.
Final Score: New Orleans 24…Washington 20
Green Bay at Detroit (+3.0) (45.0)
Ryan Grant : Start Him!!! He was pretty alright against the Vikes, had a huge run late in the game that really blew these numbers up, no catches I might add. He should tear apart the Lions this week who allowed Michael Turner to bust out for 220 yds and 2 TD in his 1st start, but also allowed Norwood almost another 100 yds and a score on the ground too. Grant won’t post those type of numbers but he is a great start this week.
Brandon Jackson: 7/12, 3/18…not much value to FF owners but good to have if you own Grant. Don’t think for a second that he will have Norwood type numbers this week. Leave him on your bench where he belongs.
Kevin Smith: 80 yds and a TD in his debut…including 4/32 thru the air. The Lions defense is one of the worst in the NFL so it is likely they will be playing from behind, and the fact he can catch and Rudi can’t, means Kevin Smith will be the RB to have in Detroit. I would say you start him for right now.
Final Score: Green Bay 28…Detroit 17
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-6.0)(38.0)
As advertised, the Bills were tremendous in their demolishing of Seattle last week. The defense, offense, and special teams looked really good. Buffalo is competing not only for a WC playoff but they might be competing for the division. We will learn a lot more about them in Jax this week. The heat and humidity will play a major role in what happens on Sunday.
The Jags…I hate to say it but with no interior OL left, the ground game is going to stay grounded. I am not going to be optimistic about Taylor and MJD very much on a weekly basis.
Marshawn Lynch: The Jags were ripped by the Titans in week 1 last year but bounced back week 2. They have sustained a lot of injuries, not sure how that will play out with their defense. One would think they will try even harder because points will be harder to come by. But to focus on lynch, he did very well last week and I see him and the Bills continuing to do well this year. Lynch will likely not light up the Jags, but he is capable of 100 yds and a score almost every week he takes the field.
MJD: I am going to list him 1st because I believe the Jags will be force to throw the ball a lot more now than they would like. But the fact is they were hoping to make a big run this year and they got torn up like I have never seen on the interior of their OL. MJD will still have value because he can catch the ball. I expect the Jags to start throwing a lot over the next few weeks as they try and mount some offense.
Fred Taylor: I give him credit based on his career but with no blocking in the “A” gaps, his game will take a major hit. I can’t honestly see starting him…ever this season. He already was not scoring TDs over the past few years, not a lot of catches, take away his running between the Tackles, what have you got?
Final Score: Buffalo 19…Jacksonville 16
Indy at Minnesota (+2.0)(43.0)
The Colts looked completely out of it this past week. I actually posted preseason that 9-7 or worse is not out of the question for the Colts this year. I know it was only 1 week, but their running game looks terrible, and I also mentioned in my RB preseason thread that the Colts OL is built to pass block more than run block. Jeff Saturday has been injured, this might be making a bigger impact on the running game
The Vikings had their chances to win the game in Green Bay, the defense was on fire at times…they were shutting the GB offense down till Rodgers walked on water and found Jennings deep, then he hits that miracle TD catch on check down 4/5…and in the 4th quarter the Pack had only gotten off about 3-6 plays in the 2nd half to that point. I still think thye will show their strength and why people were as high on them as they were.
Joseph Addai: He was shaken up last week against the Bears, I don’t see why he won’t be playing this week. Will he have a great game? I doubt it, but I don’t think you can bench him just yet.
Adrian Peterson : He was misused at times during the game this past Sunday. I don’t believe that will happen this week and I expect him to have close to 150 total yds and 1-2 TD this week.
Chester Taylor: ADP had a 3.5:1 ratio in rushing attempts. I wasn’t expecting quite that big a difference but let’s see if that trend continues. Keep him on your rosters, he will still have some good games this season.
Final Score: Minnesota 20…Indy 17
Tennessee @ Cincinnati (-1.5)(38.0)
Bengals Rush Defense: How was the Week One Bengals rushing D similar to a door knob and a prostitute? They let everybody have a turn! Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice were the main RBs in the Ravens rushing attack on Sunday and they ran for 86 and 64 yards respectively. Marc Clayton and Joe Flacco didn’t get as many rushing attempts against the Bengals D, but Clayton took his reverse handoff 42 yards to the house and Flacco scrambled for 37 yards and a TD on 4 scramble/runs. All I have to say is, wow. Wow. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t expecting the Bengals defense to have a solid rushing defense or anything but that, even if it was just the first week, that is just wow. They let up an average of 118.3 yards per game last year as a rushing unit, so it doesn’t look like they’ve improved too much for 2008. Look on the bright side, though. If you see CIN at all next to any of your RBs on any given week – Cha-ching!
LenDale White
Last week: 15 rushes for 40 yards and 1 TD
Despite impressing many people (with myself included) with his 2007 performance, LenDale White looks to have regressed back to his role as ‘Thunder’ that he had filled at USC. Absolutely do not take that as a bad thing, though, because White will still break some for big gains and be the team’s primary goal line back.
Chris Johnson
Last week: 15 rushes for 93 yards
Sure, it’s not even Week Two yet and pretty much anything could happen, but boy did Chris Johnson look impressive. The Jaguars rushing defense isn’t exactly what you could call a pushover and Johnson finds himself with one of the most favorable matchups in terms of running the ball that he’ll face all year. If there was a way that I could both highlight Chris Johnsons name in green AND have it pop out 3-D style on your screen to emphasize how much I think you should start him then I would. But I can’t, so I just put it in verbal form instead.
Titans Rush Defense: The Titans rushing defense was fifth in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (92.4). Last week, they let up the least amount of rushing yards in the entire league, holding the potent and dangerous RB duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to a mere 31 yards. Granted, they only had 14 carries total between them, but that just suggests the amount of respect Jack Del Rio had for this talented unit. I think it’s safe to say they’ll be a tough play for RBs all year long.
Chris Perry
Last week: 18 rushes for 37 yards
As true as it is that Perry wasn’t given much to work with blocking wise on Sunday and that he still could prove to be a solid fantasy RB, he’s facing one of the toughest rushing defenses in the entire league this coming Sunday. Unless you have absolutely no other option, it would probably behoove you NOT to start him. The exact opposite for Chris Johnson and the 3-D visual applies here. Imagine Perry’s name being highlighted in red with alarm sirens wailing in the background. To translate into fortune cookie speak: Starting him will not bring you good tidings.
San Fran at Seattle (-7.5)(39.0)
Seattle looked absolutely terrible in their 1st game of the season. They really jsut don't have the skill position weapons right now to compete, and their defense is probably better at home than when they travel 3 time zones to play a 1:00 game on a Sunday. Meanwhile the Niners didn't look all that great on Sunday either. Gore was able to make some noise but I think I saw where JTO had like 20 passes for the entire game. Mike Martz offense, 20 attempts?
Frank Gore: He had a great game last week, but the Seahawks are at home this week. They are a different team inside that nest they play in up in Seattle. I think Gore will have a decent game but I don’t see him racking up 150 yds in this one. The season could be on the line for Seattle this weekend.
Julius Jones: SF was pretty good against the run last week. I don’t think JJ is a great play, and he might even be sharing carries with Duckett. I have no idea what the game plan will be for Seattle but I am thinking there will be a lengthy short passing game…JJ could benefit from that if they get him involved OOTB.
TJ Duckett: Has to be other options on your roster.
Justin Forsett: Was cut this week…FYI. Might make it back on the practice squad.
Final Score: Seattle 9…SF 7
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-8.5)(38.0)
That great feeling the Falcons had this past Sunday trouncing the Lions will not transpire to a victory this week. In fact I expect a really loud thud as they come back to reality and get rolled in Tampa this weekend.
Michael Turner: We called for a big game last week, he delivered. This week, I think he will be hard pressed to even make half of that on the road in a very hostile environment where the team, fans, and coaches will be out for b-l-o-o-d!!! I understand you are going to chase last week an start him, but I expect Turner to have a very average game, no top10 appearance this week. And that is just fine because you never thought he was going to produce top10 when you drafted him. He will have some more big games but not against real defenses. The Bucs were not great last week in NO, but at home this week I expect a very strong performance as they absolutely will be desperate to stay away from 0-2.
Jerious Norwood: He is not the starter, not going to be the starter, and he isn’t going to produce 100 yds and a TD in relief every week. The Bucs are not the Lions on defense and I doub Norwood will touch the ball 10 times this week.
Earnest Graham : 10 carries for 90 yds, right? Not sure why he wasn’t used more but expect a big dose of him this weekend. He is a must start if he is on your roster.
Warrick Dunn: Had some stats in relief of Graham, look for that to continue but I don’t expect him to crack the top20 this week. He might make a flex option on bye weeks, not a lot more than that right now. Graham will be featured a lot this week.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 24…Atlanta 10
New England @ New York Jets (-2.5)(37.5)
Jets Rush Defense: Despite obvious counter-arguments for the contrary, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown can be generally regarded as a pretty solid duo. They didn’t prove to be lethal or anything last week, but each has shown at different points in his career that he can light it up. The Jets rushing D held the pair to just under 50 yards and no TDs on 16 carries. That’s not a ton of carries, but the Dolphins probably realized that they weren’t going to get anywhere trying to run against Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis (among others). The off-season acquisition of Alan Faneca garnered a lot of attention and deservedly so, but Kris Jenkins may prove to be the team’s most valuable off-season addition when all is said and done. All in all, it definitely looks like the Jets won’t be an easy matchup for opposing RBs this season.
Lawrence Maroney
Last week: 10 rushes for 51 yards
Tom Brady’s IR woes may have opened up an opportunistic door for Maroney were it not for Sammy Morris solid, hard-charging performance this past Sunday. Maroney looked fresh, crisp and had burst – but on a team with three other capable RBs, and everything pointing in the direction that the team will utilize all of them, expecting more than 12-14 carries out of Maroney would be foolish. Until he or the team proves otherwise and he gets or they give him the majority of the workload, he just isn’t top fantasy RB material. Unless of course your plagued with injuries and have no other place to turn. In that case, I don’t know what to tell you. Go surf the waiver wire.
Sammy Morris
Last week: 10 rushes for 53 yards and 1 TD
Sammy Morris, all thirty-one years of him, was arguably the most impressive RB at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. His runs should have been filmed, compiled into a videotape and labeled, “What happens when a RB doesn’t stop moving his legs.” It would make a great instructional tool. The Jets are a bit better at tackling then the Chiefs are so it’s up in the air what kind of day Morris will have. But one thing’s for sure, he’s not going to stop bull rushing forward – even if he gets clogged up at the line of scrimmage. He’s worth keeping an eye on if you’re in deeper leagues as he could eventually beat out Jordan for the team’s primary goal line back.
Patriots Rush Defense: The Patriots running D let up 102 rushing yards on 27 total carries to Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles on Sunday. Not stunning, I know, but it would have been a lot less had it not been for Larry Johnson’s complete disregard for his own well-being. LJ brought all he could on every single rush, and began to break some runs here and there towards the end of the game. Still though, holding one of the best running backs in the league to 3.4 yards per carry is no small feat. On the other hand, LJ didn’t have the best offensive line blocking for him either. For now, it’s probably a safe bet to regard the Patriots rushing D as a tad above average.
Thomas Jones
Last week: 22 rushes for 101 yards and 1 TD
So that’s what Thomas Jones can do behind a talented offensive line. Not that it should be surprising since he had a pretty good year last year considering the shoddy blocking in front of him. While TJ isn’t more talented than LJ, the Jets offensive line IS better than the Chiefs’. The Patriots run D hasn’t proven to be good enough yet to send warning flags up in a case like Jones’, so he should be a good bet for a mediocre day at worst (50-60 rushing yards).
Final Score: New York Jets 20...New England 17
San Diego @ Denver (+2.0)(44.5)
Broncos rush defense: Denver, who was one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire league last year, made some additions to its front seven this past off-season – none of which appeared to have helped very much in the teams Monday night matchup against the Raiders. Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden combined to run for 143 yards on 27 carries on them, with Fargas looking to have no problem in his quest for nearly five and a half yards per carry. If you add those two things together, what you’re NOT going to find is a lot of promise for the rushing D this season.
LaDainian Tomlinson
Last week: 21 rushes for 97 yards
Tomlinson is currently listed as probably with a toe injury, but barring another non-football related injury, should be on the field come Sunday afternoon. He was solid in a Week One effort against the Panthers, although he didn’t look like the L.T. of yore – at least in terms of his nose for the end zone. You’d be clutching at straws looking into this one too much – if you have LT, then you start him, or may you forever be made fun of in your league.
Chargers rush defense: The Chargers were a solid, middle-of-the-pack, rushing defense in 2007. Not many additions or subtractions took place, other than defensive anchor Shawn Merriman being lost for the season immediately after Week One. The unit was tested in its first matchup, eventually giving up 139 yards on 28 carries to the Panthers’ lethal running duo of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Although Merriman played some of Sunday’s game, he was plagued by the injury that would sideline him for the season and wasn’t too much of an impact. Losing him for the year definitely drops their stock farther down then the mid-point mark it was at previously. I’m sure you could have figured that out for yourself, but hey, sometimes it’s best to see it spelled out in written word.
Selvin Young and Andre Hall
Last week: 7 rushes for 36 yards and 1 TD (Young) – 10 rushes for 61 yards (Hall)
It’s the same old, same old with the Broncos this year. Both of the primary backs (all three if you count Pittman’s two TD performance) had pretty good days but failed to get the bulk of the carry attention. Young ended up edging out Hall for the better fantasy day thanks to his TD, but Hall won the yardage battle. Neither is a horrible start, and with the Chargers up next for the team, could be expected to put up about the same amount of points as they did in Week One. Always proceed with caution though. This is Mike Shanahan, after all.
Final Score: San Diego 27...Denver 24
Baltimore @ Houston (-5.0)(38.0)
Texans rush defense: The Texans rushing defense let up 138 yards and three TDs on 25 carries to Willie Parker ALONE this past Sunday. That’s right; he put up that line all by himself. I’m not even going to factor in Rashard Mendenhall’s 28 yards, but you can if you want. The Texans were a below average rushing defense in 2007, and didn’t do too much to significantly boost that half of the defense during the off-season. I’ve tried to think of a legitimate reason to try and explain away why they let Willie Parker have the best game of his career against him and I didn’t come up with much. The only thing that would make a little bit of sense is that Willie Parker was just bull#### that everyone had downgraded him so much and were writing him off as the eventual backup to Rashard Mendenhall. I mean, if that happened to me – I’d be pretty pissed, too. Even so, that doesn’t mean the Texans should have let him take out his frustrations on them all game long. He tripled his 2007 TD total for crying out loud! When does that EVER happen?!
Willis McGahee
Last week: Did Not Play
No one knows how much McGahee will play this Sunday, probably not even head coach John Harbaugh. The other running backs proved they could carry the load last week, even if it was against the bungling Bengals. So unless you have no other options at all, it would be wise of you to stay away from McGahee for at least one more week.
Ray Rice
Last week: 22 rushes for 64 yards
Rice’s NFL debut wasn’t astounding or anything, but it wasn’t bad with all things considered. He did have a rookie QB in front of him after all. It remains to be seen how McClain’s strong Week One performance will affect Rice once McGahee returns to a healthy form, but with McGahee’s participation in doubt for Week Two, Rice could have a surprisingly impressive day. Not the best start unless your hurtin’ for certain, though.
Le’Ron McClain
Last week: 19 rushes for 86 yards
You’d be blatantly lying if you said that you saw McClain’s 2008 debut coming. I didn’t even know how to spell his first name properly until a few moments ago. The kid is only 23 though, and looked pretty impressive – even if it was against the Bengals. It’s highly unlikely you have McClain on your team, so at this point in time it would be wise to keep an eye or two on how he performs in Week Two.
Ravens rush defense: Baltimore was second only to Minnesota as the best rushing defense in the league last year. They didn’t lose anybody from last season in terms of the front seven and although they are getting up there in age, still look to be a strong unit in 2008. The Ravens held Chris Perry and Kenny Watson to 55 total yards on 21 combined carries. Although to be fair, the Bengals offense didn’t do anything at all to throw its running game a bone. Nor did the offensive line look interested in actually opening up what you could call decent running holes. All in all, the majority of the Ravens defense may be getting AARP solicitations in the mail, but it looks like they’ve still got it for one more year at least.
Steve Slaton
Last week: 13 rushes for 43 yards
Surprise, surprise, Ahman Green is injured! I’ll admit, I didn’t think it would happen so soon, but it was almost inevitable. In the wake of this news however, rookie Steve Slaton has been named the team’s starting RB for Week Two. He didn’t look incredibly impressive last week, although it’s worth noting he was rushing against one of the top rushing defenses in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers. It won’t get much easier with the Ravens on tap, but he’s going to be the starter and is going to get his carries. Not too much of a stretch to start over lesser-upside candidates.
Final Score: Looks like this game could be canceled...I don't know how they would ever make this game up, but that is the current rumor floating about.
Miami @ Arizona (-7.0)(39.5)
Cardinals Rush Defense: On just 14 carries Frank Gore ran for 96 yards and 1 TD. It probably would have been a lot more had the 49ers not been forced to pass, being down 20-10 for most of the second half and all. With his 41 yard TD scamper taken out of the equation, Gore still averaged 4.2 yards per carry. And since those long TD scampers absolutely count in fantasy football, the Cardinals defense may prove to regress a bit as a rushing unit from last year. Definitely don’t view them as a strong rushing D until they prove us otherwise.
Ronnie Brown
Last week: 6 rushes for 23 yards
We expected Brown to get off to a slow start due to his getting back to game speed after injury and all, and he didn’t look TOO bad last week against the Jets. He does get a softer rushing defense this week in the Cardinals, though, so he should get more carries and yards in the Dolphins Week Two matchup.
Ricky Williams
Last week: 10 rushes for 24 yards
Williams’s contributions as a receiving back aside, his 2008 debut wasn’t what you could call impressive. He’s serviceable at best and should offer you a decent 6-8 points on a good week with reception yards factored in, but once Ronnie Brown gets back to full speed, Williams will surely take the back seat. He could have a good day against the Cardinals while the team slowly realizes Brown deserves the majority of the carries, but it’s not something I would feel comfortable betting on.
Dolphins Rush Defense: The Dolphins rushing defense was LAST in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game (153.5) and that was WITH Jason Taylor on the team. I know Taylor is known more for his pass-rushing skills, but his presence had to count for at least something in the rushing game. This past Sunday, the Dolphins defense let up 101 yards and a TD on 22 carries to Thomas Jones, who looked the exact same as last year except now with a better offense line. Yes, they were facing a talented offensive line and RB, but that would only factor in if the defense hadn’t sucked so much last year. They haven’t shown anything so far this season to prove that the letters MIA on a RBs schedule will not bring a huge grin to his face.
Edgerrin James
Last week: 26 rushes for 100 yards
Edge was downgraded and frowned upon all off-season, especially with the emergence of the talented youngster Tim Hightower as his backup. However, James proved he still had some diesel left in the tank and gained exactly 100 yards to the absolute delight of owners like myself who get bonus points at the century mark. Those same owners are also likely delighting in the fact that James finds himself against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league this week. I give him my recommendation.
Tim Hightower
Last week: 8 rushes for 13 yards and 1 TD
Until Edge proves that it would be beneficial to the team that he gets less carries, Hightower’s value remains as a goal line back only. And since it doesn’t look like Edge will slow down anytime soon, Hightower is definitely worth holding onto in dynasty leagues – but would only be worth a high RB start should James get injured.
Final Score: Arizona 34...Miami 17
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+6.0)(45.0)
Browns rush defense: The Browns gave away the team’s best defensive player in Leigh Bodden in order to sure up their defensive line, which was the major reason they had one of the worst running defenses last year. In exchange for Bodden, the Browns got the mammoth yet mercurial under-achiever Shaun Rogers. They also acquired DT Corey Williams from the Packers, who along with Rogers had many believing the Browns had made the right move. While it’s probably unfair to try and gauge how they’re going to fare this season based on the fact they were steamrolled by Marion ’The Barbarian’ Barber all game. Still though, it’s never a good sign for the future when you let up 142 rushing yards and 3 TDs. I don’t care WHO was running the ball.
Willie Parker
Last week: 25 rushes for 138 yards and 3 TDs
Well, that was definitely unexpected. I did think Parker was being downgraded too harshly but never in my wildest imagination did I think he would have the day that he did. It gets even better in the horizon, with the Cleveland Brown’s next up on the Steelers list. Will he put up similar numbers to Week One? It’s unlikely, at least in terms of TDs, but he could definitely eclipse the 100 yard mark for the second week in a row against the Browns front seven.
Rashard Mendenhall...MOP does not agree with the green light here, but I also respect the opinion of JG, so you all can discuss this with him...if it hits he is gonna look like a genius.
Last week: 10 rushes for 28 yards
Had Parker not busted out into his career day, Mendenhall probably would have gotten some more touches to show what he could do. With Parker likely to fall a bit back to earth this week, or at least in its general vicinity, Mendenhall should see more work than he did against the Texans. And that may bode well considering those who will be trying to tackle him.
Steelers rush defense: Besides the elite Vikings and Ravens rushing defenses last year, the Steelers were arguably the next best. They let up a hair less than 90 yards per game average as well as a mere 6 rushing TDs, which was tied for the least in the NFL in 2007. The defense remains largely the same this year and they looked just as impressive in their first game of 2008. Taking Ahman Green out of the equation, since he is basically his own worst rush defense due to injuries, the Steelers held rookie RB Steve Slaton to 43 yards on 13 carries.
Jamal Lewis
Last week: 13 rushes for 62 yards
With the Browns passing attack leaving much to be desired, Lewis desperately needs for it to get back into 2007 form. Without such a strong passing attack causing defenses to drop some extra bodies back into coverage, Lewis isn’t going to have the season that he had last year. Plain and simple. Even if the passing game does get back on track, then Lewis is unlikely to do very much against a tough Steelers rush defense. I would stay away this week -- far, far away.
Final Score: Cleveland 21...Pittsburgh 20
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-7.0) (47.0)
Cowboys rush defense: The Cowboys run defense didn’t have too much to worry about this past Sunday, with the Browns offense dead-set on working out the rust in its passing game. They didn’t shut Jamal Lewis down by any means, but did contain him for 62 yards on 13 carries. Had the Boys been more focused on shutting Lewis down, he likely would have had a much smaller yardage total. They were easily in the top ten rushing defenses of 2007, finishing tenth with just under 95 yards per game average. No matter the current status of the rushing defense, though, they have quite the test ahead of them on Monday night.
Brian Westbrook
Last week: 19 rushes for 91 yards and 1 TD
Brian Westbrook is one of the few running backs in the league who I really don’t much weight on in regards to the caliber of the defense he is facing that week. The Cowboys have a top notch defensive unit, but Westbrook has proven many times that it doesn’t matter how much a team focuses their game plan on him, he’s still going to produce. There’s no reason to expect anything different on Monday night.
Eagles rush defense: The Eagles rushing defense held Stephen Jackson to exactly 40 yards on 14 carries this past Sunday. This may have been due to Jackson’s belated arrival this season due to his holdout, but also may have been due to the tenacity of the Eagles defensive unit. The team was seventh best in the league last year in rushing yards given up per game and only lost DE Jevon Kearse this past off-season. Call me crazy, but I’m thinking they’re going to end up being just as tough as they were last year.
Marion Barber III
Last week: 16 rushes for 80 yards and 2 TDs
Never before has someone’s nickname so closely described their playing style than Marion Barbers’: The Barbarian. The guy is nuts. He just throws himself forward at top speed with absolutely no regard for his body at all. Just more yards. And never mind when he’s near the end zone. You’d think that he thought the last person in the end zone was going to be killed or something. Personally, he’s my favorite RB in the league. However, the same reasons that he’s called the Barbarian are also his biggest risk factors. Believe it or not, the man is not made of metal. He can and will get injured with that running style as he proved by nearly breaking his own ribs in Week One. Barber finds himself with tough Eagles rushing defense ahead of him in Week Two, but I doubt that he’s very worried about it. The Eagles defense is good, but it’s going to take a brick wall to shut Barber down.
Felix Jones
Last week: 9 rushes for 62 yards and 1 TD
With so many weapons on the Cowboys offense, Jones is going to be overlooked even after he proves to everyone that it’s not a smart thing to do. It’s like he’s the exact opposite of Julius Jones. FxJones is likely to see a lot of beat up and wheezing defenders when filling on for Barber. As for his next matchup, Jones is unlikely to see as much success as he did last week but will definitely get more touches. We’ll have a very good gauge of Jones’ long-term season talent come Tuesday morning.
MOP would like to thank JGalligan for all his effort and hard work this week.
I also would like to recognize the victims of 9/11. Today marks 7 years since those deadly and horrific attacks on the United States. Whether you vote on the Left, Right, or down the middle, I think we all can agree that the events of 9/11 were a tragedy. The late Chris Thomas who was a news anchor in Tampa for many years and hosted one of my favorite sports radio shows always said..."tell the people you love how much you love them, because you never know what tomorrow may bring." I like to stay focused on football in all the SP threads but today is a different day. So after your done gathering info, getting the line ups set, and planning your Sunday parties...make sure you take the time to let the people that are special in your life how much you love them.
We have a lot of info and ground to cover this week, so please post away and ask questions. Josh and myself will be more than happy to help. Again I encourage you to not post WDIS types, but if you let us know who you are starting and why, those type of posts are helpful and will further discussion in here. We had just short of 9,000 hits last week, and I think that is likely close to a record for anything I have put up in the weekly RB threads, I thank you so much for coming in and reading this.
Good Luck to all of you this weekend!!!
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But I'll definitely try and limit that for the future -- thanks for the input! 
sitting Brandon Jacobs against the Lambs would be the worst mistakePersonally I would play Jacobs and Chris Johnson.....of course they are all good choices....but
