RB Michael Carter, claimed by AZ (1 Viewer)

[menobrown]

Its our job to sort this all out and figure out who actually has a shot to become a starter, regardless of the draft capital invested in them.

While hindsight is 20/20 you go back through these lists and I think for the most part we the fantasy community have been able to isolate the potential starters from the other guys before the fact, because its not actually that hard to do.

And along those lines, and this may be the point you are making here, is what 4th round or later RB's have us in fantasy community been similarly high on and wrong about? I actually thought about this regarding Carter earlier.  I've been doing dynasty just over 10 years now and I easily have a higher opinion of Carter then I do any 4th round or later rookie RB. 

Kenneth Dixon was probably my second highest  RB who was a 4th round or later pick. He was a bust. I could say it was due to injuries and drug suspensions but he did not work out. I never actually drafted Dixon and did not think he was worth a first round pick in a normal year but I recall that draft class being one I viewed as thin and I did have him as a top 12 player in that class. So despite not drafting him I'll own being 0-1 on 4th round or later RB's but I did not view him quite as high as I do Carter.

 

[Biabreakable]

And along those lines, and this may be the point you are making here, is what 4th round or later RB's have us in fantasy community been similarly high on and wrong about? I actually thought about this regarding Carter earlier.  I've been doing dynasty just over 10 years now and I easily have a higher opinion of Carter then I do any 4th round or later rookie RB. 

Kenneth Dixon was probably my second highest  RB who was a 4th round or later pick. He was a bust. I could say it was due to injuries and drug suspensions but he did not work out. I never actually drafted Dixon and did not think he was worth a first round pick in a normal year but I recall that draft class being one I viewed as thin and I did have him as a top 12 player in that class. So despite not drafting him I'll own being 0-1 on 4th round or later RB's but I did not view him quite as high as I do Carter.

You know what I still haven't gotten around to watching Carter. So I am a clean slate on him right now.

As you say though its not every year that I find myself really liking a RB who was drafted after the 3rd round but there have been some I have been very bullish on such as Zac Stacy and Jay Ajayi that have ended up being very useful for a short period of time. Of course I have had misses such as Booker and likely some others I am forgetting about. I did like Dixon a lot as well and the opportunity was there for him, but it didn't work out. Other guys such as Paul Perkins seemed like good players and the opportunity was there but I didn't see that working out, and it didn't. 

Andre WIlliams is a guy I was very bullish about even though he is almost the opposite stylistically of what I am looking for in a RB. The opportunity was there for him too, but he wasn't good enough. I was wrong on that part of it.

In any case I do think we go through these guys every year and do a pretty good job of sorting out who at least has a chance at opportunity to show what they can do, and some sense of the players relative talent level if they do get the opportunity.

 

[Faust]

Jets rookie RB Michael Carter ready to 'contribute in a big way'

 

[Faust]

The Athletic's Connor Hughes said rookie RB Michael Carter is the "eventual 1A" in the Jets' backfield. 

Hughes reiterated what he said in June about Carter -- a fourth-round pick in the 2021 draft -- emerging as the main option in what will be something of a committee backfield like the 49ers. Hughes said it's Carter's pass-catching ability to separates him from Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. "He’s essentially a receiver out of the backfield," Hughes said. Positive training camp reports will boost Carter's average draft position -- it's only a matter of how much the rookie rises. Carter seems destined to fall into the RB dead zone this summer. 

RELATED: 

Tevin Coleman

, Ty Johnson

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Jul 26, 2021, 10:02 AM ET

 

[Ilov80s]

Opening camp as the RB with the starters. You love to see it. 

 

[Faust]

Opening camp as the RB with the starters. You love to see it. 

Rookie RB Michael Carter started training camp with the Jets' first-team offense. 

It's a good start for Carter, the 107th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Beat writers have predicted for months that Carter would lead a Jets backfield widely expected to use a committee approach. The Jets will probably use veterans Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman -- who has experience in the team's offensive system -- through parts of training camp and preseason. Carter remains the favorite to lead the team in rushing attempts behind an improved offensive line. He's a sensible pick for fantasy managers who wait on running back. 

RELATED: 

Tevin Coleman

, Ty Johnson

SOURCE: Connor Hughes on Twitter 

Jul 28, 2021, 12:58 PM ET

 

[Faust]

The Athletic's Connor Hughes noted that rookie RB Michael Carter is "a step above the other three running backs."

The other three running backs Hughes was referring to are Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and Lamical Perine. We're still early in training camp but Carter has already earned reps with the first team and is now looking better than his competition for touches. While it's unlikely that he dominates New York's backfield early in the season, a split that favors him over Coleman from Week 1 is looking increasingly possible. Currently going as an RB3 in most drafts, expect Carter's draft stock to rise throughout August if he keeps running laps around his teammates. 

RELATED: 

Ty Johnson

, Tevin Coleman

, La'Mical Perine

SOURCE: The Athletic

Aug 3, 2021, 6:20 PM ET

 

[zed2283]

Man, I have to say that I'm super disappointed in the SP for the lack of updates and opinions on this first week of preseason games.

Did anyone watch this game?  Did he start?  How did he look?

 

[Ilov80s]

Man, I have to say that I'm super disappointed in the SP for the lack of updates and opinions on this first week of preseason games.

Did anyone watch this game?  Did he start?  How did he look?

Wish I saw the game but I don't have NFLN. Also, this first week of preseason has been pretty lightweight so I don't think we can put much stock into anything. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Man, I have to say that I'm super disappointed in the SP for the lack of updates and opinions on this first week of preseason games.

Did anyone watch this game?  Did he start?  How did he look?

He didn’t start, Ty Johnson did but Carter worked with the first team offense. Both backs looked good on the first series as the line and scheme was giving them lanes. Carter looked quick and decisive but for the most part he was getting to run straight through a hole. the Giants had their second unit in to start the game though.

 

[JohnnyU]

Go watch Matt Waldman's review of Carter and get back to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39sVU1tYLHs&ab_channel=MattWaldman

 

[GroveDiesel]

Man, I have to say that I'm super disappointed in the SP for the lack of updates and opinions on this first week of preseason games.

Did anyone watch this game?  Did he start?  How did he look?

I’ve watched large chunks of 3 games and the biggest takeaway is from who teams are choosing to hold out because they view them as too valuable to play. Everyone is holding out so many players that I don’t think that we can say a lot about any performance so far.

 

[barackdhouse]

I’ve watched large chunks of 3 games and the biggest takeaway is from who teams are choosing to hold out because they view them as too valuable to play. Everyone is holding out so many players that I don’t think that we can say a lot about any performance so far.

Yeah I agree. But there are also coaches that are further to one side or another of the "start vs sit during the preseason" debate. Tom Brady played yesterday.

 

[barackdhouse]

Rookies generally need reps though.

 

[Tanner9919]

I think next week's games will give you the real idea of what's what out there. in past years week 1 preseason was typically filled with 2nd/3rd stringers starting and playing most of the time.same thing here.

it used to be that week 3 preseason was the dress rehearsal game. now it appears that week 2 will be that game. week 3 is 'who makes the cut'

 

[rockaction]

For those saying that the players are being held out, Carter was clearly splitting snaps with Johnson, with Johnson as the lead guy. Just like Malcolm Brown and Gaskin. Whether that holds is another story.

I have no idea, really.

 

[smbkrypt24]

This is poor timing, because it has nothing to do with preaseason, but he is being overdrafted by at least a round.

 

[zed2283]

He didn’t start, Ty Johnson did but Carter worked with the first team offense. Both backs looked good on the first series as the line and scheme was giving them lanes. Carter looked quick and decisive but for the most part he was getting to run straight through a hole. the Giants had their second unit in to start the game though.

This sounds significant to me.  I don't care who was playing or not playing for either team, unless you tell me the starting RB for the Jets was not playing.

 

[ffmail4me]

Do Browns fans think Ty Johnson will have a significant role? Is he worth rostering in a redraft? 

 

[rockaction]

Do Browns fans think Ty Johnson will have a significant role? Is he worth rostering in a redraft? 

He’s a Jet by way of Detroit. 

 

[zamboni]

He’s a Jet by way of Detroit. 

He took the midnight train going anywhere.

 

[rockaction]

He took the midnight train going anywhere.

Somebody tell Gladys when he gets to Georgia.

 

[zamboni]

He took the midnight train going anywhere.

Somebody tell Gladys when he gets to Georgia.

I was going with Journey, but that also applies

 

[rockaction]

I was going with Journey, but that also applies

I missed it. Who could miss that? 

*this guy. Points thumbs at self*

I would have caught "born and raised in South Detroit."

 

[ffmail4me]

journey lyrics aren't helping 

 

[zamboni]

I missed it. Who could miss that? 

*this guy. Points thumbs at self*

I would have caught "born and raised in South Detroit."

I would, but there is no South Detroit.

 

[joey]

I would, but there is no South Detroit.

There is if you’re a songwriter looking for a 1 syllable word. 

 

[Ilov80s]

There is if you’re a songwriter looking for a 1 syllable word. 

Yeah, Southwest Detroit just wouldn't work

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

I would, but there is no South Detroit.

Well, some might consider Windsor South Detroit. 

 

[zamboni]

Well, some might consider Windsor South Detroit. 

One would be playing with spitfire by vocalizing that. 

 

[jtd13]

Yeah, Southwest Detroit just wouldn't work

"Down river" is the right number of syllables, but really just doesn't have the same ring.

 

[Ilov80s]

"Down river" is the right number of syllables, but really just doesn't have the same ring.

And it's not quite right based on speaking patterns here in Michigan. I have never ever heard someone say they "live in downriver". They say they "live downriver". So the syllables still wouldn't work out right.  

 

[jtd13]

And it's not quite right based on speaking patterns here in Michigan. I have never ever heard someone say they "live in downriver". They say they "live downriver". So the syllables still wouldn't work out right.  

Fair point! I was just thinking one for one replacements for those 3 syllables. But no one lives *in* downriver.

Anyway, Johnson's a jet now 

 

[rockaction]

And it's not quite right based on speaking patterns here in Michigan. I have never ever heard someone say they "live in downriver". They say they "live downriver". So the syllables still wouldn't work out right.  

"Born and livin' in downriver"

 

[TLEF316]

Jets fan here....while I think Carter has a lot of talent, I don't think it's realistic to expect him to carry the load. They've got a lot of backs on the roster and I actually think Ty Johnson is the one to own. I kinda feel like his skill set is perfect for this system.  

Haven't looked at ADP's or anything (and we need to see more pre season) but he (johnson) seems like a sneaky good potential flex play who you can probably get super cheap.  The Jets are going to run a lot of stretch plays behind the left side of their line and I think Johnson gets the majority of them. 

Carter probably gets a bump in ppr and I have no idea who is gonna get the goal line carries but I prefer Johnson in yardage heavy systems.

 

[Biabreakable]

Man, I have to say that I'm super disappointed in the SP for the lack of updates and opinions on this first week of preseason games.

Did anyone watch this game?  Did he start?  How did he look?

Sorry I meant to watch this one but I was depressed after watching the Vikings piss poor performance and I haven't watched any games after that.

I have NFL network and I might still be able to catch it now that my emotions have recovered a bit.

I did spend about an hour watching cut ups of Carter in college awhile ago and I do really like his skill set. I think he is better than Coleman the main competition he has for playing time.

 

[JohnnyU]

Jets fan here....while I think Carter has a lot of talent, I don't think it's realistic to expect him to carry the load. They've got a lot of backs on the roster and I actually think Ty Johnson is the one to own. I kinda feel like his skill set is perfect for this system.  

Haven't looked at ADP's or anything (and we need to see more pre season) but he (johnson) seems like a sneaky good potential flex play who you can probably get super cheap.  The Jets are going to run a lot of stretch plays behind the left side of their line and I think Johnson gets the majority of them. 

Carter probably gets a bump in ppr and I have no idea who is gonna get the goal line carries but I prefer Johnson in yardage heavy systems.

Ty Johnson is just another guy that scares no one.

 

[ffmail4me]

Ty Johnson is just another guy that scares no one.

He is a great late round RB sleeper IMO....

 

[JohnnyU]

He is a great late round RB sleeper IMO....

Not sure great is the word I would use for the 2019 6th round pick, who has 117 total carries and 1 TD in two years,.  Carter would seem to be head and shoulders above all the other RB fodder on that team.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Not sure great is the word I would use for the 2019 6th round pick, who has 117 total carries and 1 TD in two years,.  Carter would seem to be head and shoulders above all the other RB fodder on that team.

This is a genuine question and not a “gotcha” post, because I truly don’t know, do we have numbers easily available on the difference in hit rate between 4th and 6th round RBs over time? It’s not like Carter has any sort of impressive pedigree, we’re chasing volume in this offense. Even if you think a guy is talented, when you’re talking 4th round or 6th round you’re looking for two things: traits, and opportunity. That’s really it. People fall in love with these mid rounders every year that we swear fell too far or landed in a great situation, but the reality is that it seems like one big bucket we should be dipping into as much as we can hoping for the next Devonta Freeman type guy, without becoming too attached. Given the prices Carter is going for (with the assumption that he’s got a great opportunity at volume without much competition priced in already) isn’t it foolish to dismiss a lottery ticket that’s even cheaper than Carter, that can cover your ### on Carter if you’re wrong? Although I play in deeper leagues so stashing these sorts of guys isn’t a detriment to my roster. But these are the sorts of low hit rate lottery tickets you want to take fliers on, like Gaskin going into last preseason. 

 

[zamboni]

Carter has a leg up on Johnson if only because Saleh and Co. drafted/brought him in, while Johnson is a holdover. But that doesn't mean that Johnson, who has some talent himself, can't enamor himself with the new regime more so than Carter. One also can't ignore that, while the fantasy community is understandably down on Coleman, Saleh clearly doesn't feel the same way, knows him from SF, and decided to bring him in as well. And we don't know how Saleh feels about Perine either.

IMO Carter will emerge as the most valuable guy in the backfield, but it could still be a full blown RBBC and there are a lot of moving parts that need to be sorted out. Draft accordingly until we get more clarity

 

[JohnnyU]

This is a genuine question and not a “gotcha” post, because I truly don’t know, do we have numbers easily available on the difference in hit rate between 4th and 6th round RBs over time? 

The hit rate on late round RBs is atrocious as a whole.  I did some research on this in another thread somewhere, but 5th, 6th, 7th, or undrafted players are worse than those drafted in the 4th round, but even 4th round RBs don't have a great hit rate.  Again, this is based on overall hit rates and of course you have exceptions like James Robinson.  I wouldn't consider Ty Johnson as a lottery ticket and would rather have Carter.  The question of whether Carter's ADP is worth it, well, I don't know for sure, but if you would rather have Ty Johnson later in the draft, then knock yourself out.  I just wouldn't put that much stock into Johnson being a viable fantasy asset on a bad team.

 

[Iceman03]

The hit rate on late round RBs is atrocious as a whole.  I did some research on this in another thread somewhere, but 5th, 6th, 7th, or undrafted players are worse than those drafted in the 4th round, but even 4th round RBs don't have a great hit rate.  Again, this is based on overall hit rates and of course you have exceptions like James Robinson.  I wouldn't consider Ty Johnson as a lottery ticket and would rather have Carter.  The question of whether Carter's ADP is worth it, well, I don't know for sure, but if you would rather have Ty Johnson later in the draft, then knock yourself out.  I just wouldn't put that much stock into Johnson being a viable fantasy asset on a bad team.

I would give Carter the nod but it seems pretty insignificant in the context of this scenario.

Round 4 hit rate is 1.37% for top 12 and 4.11% for top 24 finish in their first three seasons.

Round 6 is 0.00% for top 12 and 1.64% for top 24 finish in their first three seasons.

There are scenarios I don’t think are accounted for which would be a three way split in the backfield or that the Jets starting RB still is not on the team.

 

[Ilov80s]

I would give Carter the nod but it seems pretty insignificant in the context of this scenario.

Round 4 hit rate is 1.37% for top 12 and 4.11% for top 24 finish in their first three seasons.

Round 6 is 0.00% for top 12 and 1.64% for top 24 finish in their first three seasons.

There are scenarios I don’t think are accounted for which would be a three way split in the backfield or that the Jets starting RB still is not on the team.

I would be curious to see these numbers ran for the 5th RB taken in the draft and what the predictive value is for looking at the ordinal position ranking as opposed to the round. Was Carter falling to the 4th a sign that teams didn't think he was all that talented, was it a sign of how teams are catching on to the lack of value in RBs or was it just a glut of teams had much bigger needs at other positions? 

 

[barackdhouse]

was it a sign of how teams are catching on to the lack of value in RBs or was it just a glut of teams had much bigger needs at other positions? 

Yeah people can say it is a thin RB draft but that doesn't mean the RB5 isn't still good. But for the bolded yes I think teams are catching on more and more each year to RB devaluation *and* yes there are other needs and a glut of players available at those positions (sometimes). IIRC there were a lot of OL and DL taken between the top 3 RBs and Carter. Other drafts I have seen similar runs on DBs or multiple categories. Still can't ignore that multiple teams passed on Carter and the later capital *is* a flag. But I think he is closer to a typical RB5 profile than to a typical day 3 pick. We shall see.

 

[TripItUp]

I agree with Mike Clay and Matthew Berry, looks like Carter is being overvalued in redraft. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I agree with Mike Clay and Matthew Berry, looks like Carter is being overvalued in redraft. 

I don't really look at ADP much, but he likely is. This will be a RBBC - although I do think Carter should/could end up being the most valuable of its members. Tevin Coleman was held out of the first pre-season game, and Ty Johnson got the first two carries. It's possible the rotation goes 4 deep (with Perine), although I'm guessing only 3 will dress each week with Travis Wesco being used as a HB/FB.

 

[jm192]

I worry he's overvalued in dynasty too.  

Seems like he's crept up into the 1st round fairly consistently.  I worry that he's a career committee guy/3rd down specialist.  And that can be a solid roster piece.  But if I'm getting that and hoping he becomes more involved in the offense--I'd rather be getting that somewhere in the 2nd round.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I worry he's overvalued in dynasty too.  

Seems like he's crept up into the 1st round fairly consistently.  I worry that he's a career committee guy/3rd down specialist.  And that can be a solid roster piece.  But if I'm getting that and hoping he becomes more involved in the offense--I'd rather be getting that somewhere in the 2nd round.

I don’t think him going late first in dynasty was necessarily an overpay because this just wasn’t that deep of a rookie class. Carter may never have a bell cow roll but being the “lightening” in a 2 man committee, like at NC, is on the table. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I watched the first half of this game last night. Some observations.

Ty Johnson looks more decisive than Carter does to me and he showed more burst and acceleration than Carter did. Carter seemed indecisive to me at times looking for holes to develop that didn't. Johnson finishes his runs stronger than Carter does, not that either had good yards after contact that I saw, but I think defenders felt Johnson a bit more on contact than they did Carter who was more trying to slip away than just putting his head down and trying to win that way.

Michael Carter has better footwork and change of direction ability than Johnson does. This is something I really like about Carter is his shiftyness. He didnt really make anyone miss with this though but he is trying to do that, Johnson is not.

Ty Johnson reminds me more of Tevin Coleman as far as his play style.

Despite this difference Johnson failed to convert on two short yardage opportunities he had. What I am talking about is more style than substance.

I thought the blocking was pretty good early on but the Giants defense seemed to adjust and do a better job of containing them in the 2nd quarter.

Carter didn't impress me as much in this game as he did in cut ups of his play in college. What I saw was I think a bit tentative and indecisive, like he is adjusting to the speed of the pro game.

Ilov80s asked about success rates of RB by order they were selected not round. Workdog did a VBD study of this quite a few years back now here that is. Its kind of odd but the 5th RB selected has been slightly more productive than the 4th RB selected but its still somewhat close for RB 4-6 and then a big drop off for the 7th RB selected and after that. This seems counter intuitive and I think the result is somewhat random with some small sample size of successful RB bringing these numbers up a bit for the 5th RB. If anything what I would take away from this is that you want RB who were top 6 of their class and to be more leery of RB selected after that.

I do think Carter has been overdrafted a bit based on how high he went in rookie polls pick 12 but as already mentioned I think this is more because of the 2021 draft class being a bit weak for fantasy skill players besides the QBs. 

The way the two RB were used did seem to be RBBC. Johnson would be in for 2 or 3 touches then they bring in Carter. I saw this pattern repeat itself so it seems to be by design. The Jets did have the ball a lot longer than the Giants so we had the opportunity to see this useage develop. Johnson did seem to be the preferred RB on short yardage attempts but as I mentioned he was not successful in converting those.

I need to see more of course but I came away from this being a little bit disappointed with Carter compared to my impression of his ability watching him at the college level. I am less confident in him being a better RB than Coleman now than I was before watching this game.