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RB Miles Sanders, DAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
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TampaMike19
Footballguy
Dude's dynasty value feels like it's hanging on by a thread...next year doesn't look great for him either. Don't even see them re-signing him.
He had some nice games to end the year but Sanders maybe he's hurt still today but he's just not trusted at all, and the running game always seems to be better without him.
He had some nice games to end the year but Sanders maybe he's hurt still today but he's just not trusted at all, and the running game always seems to be better without him.
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zamboni
Footballguy
He’s under contract next year on a cheap rookie deal, so I doubt he’s going anywhere but part of a RBBC.TampaMike19 said:
Best case is that he moves on after next year, but things move fast and there’s no guarantee he’ll be a coveted asset at that point.
So I agree his dynasty value is shrinking by the day.
Dez
Footballguy
Staying healthy is really the key. I thought Sanders played the best football of his career last year, he averaged 5.5 YPC, and cut out the drops that plagued him in 2020. He was just super unlucky in the TD department, and got hurt right when they made the switch to being a run heavy offense.
If he can play a full season, he might be fantasy's cheapest 1,200 yard RB.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It's nice to see someone have an accurate recall for how his season went last year.
Only thing I'd add is he got hurt at two really bad times. The first one you mentioned and the second time right after he got 27 and 20 touches in b2b games and then got hurt again the next week.
He had 3 different games last year he early exited for injury. Those are killer in fantasy and will leave a bad taste in your mouth so understandable why a lot of people are sour on him to say nothing of watching everyone on the Eagles score TD's but him. But whether you like him or think he's a spare the one issue that bugs me is when people say the coaching staff has treated him anything other then the feature back when healthy because it's just not accurate. Now to be clear he's one of those 60-70% kind of feature backs, not one of those 90% types, but still by almost measure I can come up with in any game he's been able to stay healthy he's been the main guy.
Just needs to say healthy.
rockaction
Footballguy
If you look at PFR, his snap count is more like 53%. It was 53% his first year, went up to 70%, and then back down to 53%. That's the games he started. He started 12 games according to PFR, hurt or not. So if there's a quibble, quibble over two games.
His big game was 27 touches. Against the Jets. Go look at the fantasy output against the Jets this year. It was insane. His day was actually worse than average for a lead back vs. the Jets. The next week he had twenty touches against the Redskins.
He really was around the 15 touch per game mark, and that's a generous estimate, because I'm including all targets, not just touches where he was able to secure the football. Otherwise, we're looking at a thirteen or so touch guy.
He's worth something in dynasty, but I'm not sure exactly how much. I'd give a first and late second for him, or maybe the 1.09 I have -- doubt it -- but nothing in addition to it. It'd be a tough sell, too.
Keeptradecut has him as the 2.02 pick. That's interesting.
His big game was 27 touches. Against the Jets. Go look at the fantasy output against the Jets this year. It was insane. His day was actually worse than average for a lead back vs. the Jets. The next week he had twenty touches against the Redskins.
He really was around the 15 touch per game mark, and that's a generous estimate, because I'm including all targets, not just touches where he was able to secure the football. Otherwise, we're looking at a thirteen or so touch guy.
He's worth something in dynasty, but I'm not sure exactly how much. I'd give a first and late second for him, or maybe the 1.09 I have -- doubt it -- but nothing in addition to it. It'd be a tough sell, too.
Keeptradecut has him as the 2.02 pick. That's interesting.
zamboni
Footballguy
I've owned the guy for three years - can't deny the talent, but he's really hurt himself (in more ways than one) by not being able to stay off the trainers' table since his rookie year. There's no shortage of talented RBs who are just not built to be a workhorse and/or are just plain unlucky with injuries, and he seems to be in that mix. His former college teammate Saquon is starting to show signs of that as well.
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Started 12, early exited 3 of them with max of 22 snaps in his 3 early exit games. I don't think the early exit games should be included myself as it's not accurate picture of how staff intended to use him. The 9 games he finished he was 63%. That's not wildly different then 53% but if this is considering quibbling over him being a 60%+ snap player then I'm quibbling because to me that's what he was when healthy.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
How he was when healthy may not be an indicator of future use if the coaches don't believe he will stay healthy if used with a heavy dose of touches. I'm not saying that is the case, but one has to wonder.
Based on how they used him last year it would seem a sliding scale does exist that when he's not getting as many touches his snap count increases and the more touches he gets his snaps reduce.
So this may already be at play, some degree of management in how to use him best and have him not break down, but does not mean the staff is down on him or he's not the clear cut main RB which is only point I'm trying to get across.
I would stress a difference exists between a high volume bell cow and the main RB on a team. I think he's the latter without any doubt, it's wishful thinking at this point to believe he's the former.
Rockchild
Footballguy
I just acquired him for the 2.01 (technically the 2.02 as we have a bonus spot at 1.13). Felt it was good value for a RB3 with upside for a RB2. Not a huge fan but thought it was worth the price.
foxco
Footballguy
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I was considering offering 1.09 for him but I'm unsure.
I just don't think I want any Eagles.
I just don't think I want any Eagles.
zamboni
Footballguy
What's very interesting is that Sanders was an extremely good pass catcher in college and then as a rookie. After he had some drops in his second year, he was largely eliminated from that aspect of the game under the end of the Pederson era and now under Sirianni. Of course, having a mobile guy like Hurts has reduced the number of dump-offs considerably.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
IMO this is a make or break year for him. If he gets nicked and must come out often, then I think the coaches will not lean on him. If he comes out like gang busters with 15 to 20 touches and performs well and doesn't get nicked, then I must agree with those that have advocated that. If it is the same-o-same-o, then Sanders truthers must face reality.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
This thread might as well be the definition of insanity. Every off season people convince themselves that something has changed (it hasn't), Sanders will be the man (he won't), and Eagles coaches will lean on him (hasn't happened). Then the season starts and there's a ton of posts complaining about how Boston Scott or some nobody is taking all the touches in the redzone and Sanders is barely getting used despite putting up a crazy ypc, until he spends half the season with some sort of injury designation.
Yet still you guys think he's worth a first? A second? He's not even a rb3/flex; he's firmly flex/waiver at this point in his career. Give me a third round rookie pick with upside over him.
Yet still you guys think he's worth a first? A second? He's not even a rb3/flex; he's firmly flex/waiver at this point in his career. Give me a third round rookie pick with upside over him.
rockaction
Footballguy
He's definitely worth a reasonably high second given the incoming class. I think he's even worth a late first, potentially. I have no illusions about the difficulties of rostering him and the frustration forthwith, but he's worth an early second in my book for sure. I'd gladly trade one of the early seconds I have for him.
I'm a Sanders defender (reluctantly) and I would probably say about pick 16 or so, is where I'd draw the line on Sanders. I don't think he's ever going to be anything more than an RB2, I don't think he can physically handle it. However, he's been so productive that there is no reason he can't see 15 touches every week he is healthy.
Miles Sanders is a really hard guy to assess. No doubt many current owners are frustrated, and perhaps the Eagles are as well. I think it'd be foolish for the Eagles to make any major changes though, just hope he stays healthy, and know that Gainwell and Scott can fill in if needed.
In redraft, I'd probably have Sanders somewhere in the mid 20's at RB right now.
rockaction
Footballguy
That sounds about right. I'm guessing Hall, Walker, Spiller, and then Sanders. Depending on draft capital and landing spot, one could make a case for Zamir White over Sanders, but that's tough.
It's going to come down to draft capital and location for the running backs this year. Sanders I can see over most of the backs in the draft. RB4 sounds good.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Miles Sanders scored roughly the same points per game as Devontae Booker and Devonta Freeman, two players who spent a good deal of their season playing as the backup of their respective teams. Yes, he should experience some positive td regression this upcoming season, but that would give him the same numbers Sony Michael had and I didn't see anyone arguing that he's worth a 2nd round pick in season.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I would prefer Rachaad White as well. Maybe even a couple others just on the lottery ticket aspect (at least for long term building). I just worry Sanders is about to move to his 2nd contract and that can get murky.
rockaction
Footballguy
I've been reading a lot of people writing about Rachaad. They're not sold. I can only listen to them, really. I mean, I have judgments to make on my own, but here's how that went the first time around
1.06 (traded out of 1.01 with CEH consensus, correct about that) - Henry Ruggs
2.01 - Chase Young
2.04 - Denzel Mims
2.07 - Bryan Edwards
3.01 - Somebody else who doesn't play
3.06 - Antonio Gandy-Golden
That's six misses. Bad. Bad news. Missed out on Jonathan Taylor, too, who was consensus RB2. Even if I had stayed, I might have taken D'Andre Swift at 1.01, so that's debatable.
When I listened to other people the second time around, albeit I had to get creative with trades
1.01 (traded the 1.04 and 2.04 to get there) - Ja'Marr Chase
1.05 - Javonte Williams
2.05 (traded this year's first for 2.05 and 2.06) - Micah Parsons
2.06 - Jamin Davis
2.10 - Zach Wilson
2.11 Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah
That's three over-the-top hits, JOK who is going to by all accounts be a hit, and leaves only Jamin Davis (developing but likely never to reach all-down MLB potential) and Zach Wilson (also developing, so he's a doubtful maybe). So that's only two misses and Chase (overall RB1 in dynasty), Williams (overall RB2 or RB3 in dynasty) and Parsons (overall EDGE number one by most ranking sites for dynasty).
I'm sticking with others.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not sure I would count Chase as a hit just in the sense that he was one of the most universally loved prospects I can recall. Now may be him vs Harris was a debate though so maybe I am wrong. Ultimately that’s just a small sample to make judgments but I get it. I do the same thing with certain people. Waldman’s missed on Butler and Sermon were so big that I struggle to come back to his POV now. Also, White is very draft dependent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go 4th round to a questionable spot and fall behind Zamir, Robinson, etc.
rockaction
Footballguy
There were some that had serious hands/separation concerns with Chase, but overall, I think he has to be considered a hit so far, anyway. I've been doing a lot of reading on WAR and positional value, and there's a very good case to be made for Harris over Chase as the preferable 1.01. RB scarcity and WAR might have dictated that Harris should have been 1.01.
I should say this: When I say "hit," I mean somebody who retains or increases in dynasty value. Chase and Jefferson are WR1/2 for sure, so Chase, who was certainly not considered WR1 or 2 overall before his rookie year, hit. Javonte's value was so great I was able to procure an extra player and the 1.01 for him because his value increased so dramatically. Parsons has huge value now compared to being a mid-second-round selection.
All I'm saying is that having my own opinion -- and only that opinion -- from watching games is very suspect. It was sort of a post poking fun at myself, actually, but with a serious point. Consensus breeds something. Search for signal and noise and groupthink, but don't be afraid to follow a rational actor model when looking at these guys and their market value.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just to be clear, I wasn’t questioning whether Chase was a hit as a rookie pick. He was a smash hit. I was just saying he was such an obvious “generational WR” that it’s almost impossible to have not had him valued that high for rookie drafts.
But yeah you smashed that last draft. Hit a lot better than I have for sure. I’ve been whiffing left and right (Reagor, Marshall, Mims, ETN hurt)
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks. I wasn't looking for compliments, just explaining how downgrading my own ability to analyze guys had certainly helped me out.
The more I stray from consensus, the worse I do, it seems. Now, differing outlets will have you doing different things regarding your rookie drafts, so it's often hard to say what consensus is. Rankings? ADP? What?
So my strategy this year, which will go unannounced, is different because there's an outlet I believe is correct in their approach to this particular draft. If the NFL disagrees with that outlet, I'll listen to draft capital. If it doesn't, it looks like I'm going in a particular direction, especially with two first-round picks, four second-round picks, and an early third.
Pretty much it.
My thing is where I think a host of those next tier RB's can eventually win a starting job or be key part of a RBBC but I don't actually see a lot of openings where I'd feel confident about it and hope is not the best plan.
The fact that most of the RB's after the 3 you referenced are approximately within 2 years of Sanders age is not such a gap I care to hope and/or wait. I'd rather just take the guy I know is a starting RB and has demonstrated high upside play in the actual NFL. And to me that's not open to debate. That he's not been great for fantasy and has struggled to stay healthy does not take away that he has performed at a high upside level when he's got the ball.
Saying all that it's certainly possible a RB or two leaps Sanders (and for me the two Georgia's are the main contenders) and he could end up as RB5-6. But even if he slid that far I can say I won't have a QB or TE in my first round dynasty grade and the amount of WR's I will put over Sanders in the FFPC format will likely be in the 5-7 range.
When I do the math this to me his value is currently in the last first range and likely would be even if he fell to RB5-6. As always with the caveat that different circumstances with different teams, league format, etc, etc might adjust this a little but would not be much for me.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree with your post. Let's take it point-by-point
Draft capital and location will help, though.
The age of the backs in this class is indeed a problem when you get to the Day 2/3 guys. Rachaad White will be a good deal older, as will Robinson and Strong. It makes one recalibrate their calculus.
To my eye -- and it seems back up by the stats -- Sanders is definitely a good RB when given the ball.
I agree with this, but as you point out, league size and roster construction will have something to do with this. (At least a little, depending.)
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I would probably take Sanders over all but Walker and Hall right now. I can see a case for a couple other guys depending on landing spot, I'm of the belief rookie drafts before the NFL draft are silly, so I don't really pay attention to where guys are going right now.
I'm not a fan of Spiller or either White at all. My RB3 is Dameon Pierce personally.
That said, I don't have a ton of confidence that Sanders is better than Gainwell, and could see that becoming a 50-50 RBBC. So I sit at 2nd round pick value for Sanders, even if he'd be my #3 RB in this draft. I love a lot of WRs in this class, I think its like 10 deep with quality prospects, and I think Willis is going to be a good fantasy QB as well, in a Jalen Hurts kinda way, but with more upside, depending on situation, so hopefully not Atlanta.
I'm not a fan of Spiller or either White at all. My RB3 is Dameon Pierce personally.
That said, I don't have a ton of confidence that Sanders is better than Gainwell, and could see that becoming a 50-50 RBBC. So I sit at 2nd round pick value for Sanders, even if he'd be my #3 RB in this draft. I love a lot of WRs in this class, I think its like 10 deep with quality prospects, and I think Willis is going to be a good fantasy QB as well, in a Jalen Hurts kinda way, but with more upside, depending on situation, so hopefully not Atlanta.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
menobrown said:
I could quote a handful more, but I'm lazy.rockaction said:
Point being this same discussion was made last year. Go back a few pages. You'll see me repeatedly saying "Eagles coaches don't trust him with the ball." Followed by an offseason of disagreement.
Then week one rolled around and... Opps, the eagles coaches didn't trust him with the ball.
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Instinctive
Footballguy
I don't think it's fair to say that happened this year. It seemed like he got the ball a lot, got hurt, and left games. Someone in my salary league dropped him and I'd hit on a few great picks so had the luxury of just adding him as depth...so I paid attention.
To me, he feels like the classic case of "seems good every time he plays" and has just been unlucky to be hurt at some of the wrong times. If his ADP is right, I'd be happy with him as my RB2 this coming season. I think he's got clear RB1 upside (TD luck, injury luck, etc). We'll see. I'll be intrigued to see where my model lands him after I take the dispassionate analytical view in a couple months.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
He touched the ball 19 times in week one (plus a missed target) and 14 times in week two (plus another missed target). He recorded only one redzone touch in those two games and no redzone targets. Ostensibly he was healthy in those games (week three five total touches is when he started with his on again off again love affair with the trainers table), so what exactly is the excuse for this?
Going back to my belabored points, Sanders isn't a /bad/ player. He would do well to try everything he can to get out of Philadelphia. The coaches there don't want to use him in a way that translates to fantasy success.
Instinctive
Footballguy
He still got ~2 rushes and ~1 target per game played in the redzone. He's not Jonathan Taylor. But a guy who can get ~1200 yards is likely to have more TDs than he typically has ended with. I'm going to bet on historical trends > one guy's results to date.
Philly has had different coaches during his time there.
I just think that over my lifetime of doing this, which is admittedly only like 20 years (vs many others who've done it far longer on this board), going to stats and ignoring the player's name and team tends to work out best for me. Sanders has stats that I think are going to indicate he's undervalued. We'll see if that hunch is right or not. But I generally treat all players as equally likely to be injured within a position too, and that's also worked out well for me.
I'd be ok with him having Miller's career. Miller averaged 1,250-7 over a 5 year stretch with finishes between 9 and 22 all throughout.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I didn't realize when I looked at the numbers how similar they would actually be.
Through 3 seasons, Miles Sanders has 3,303 yards. Through Miller's first 3 seasons, he had 2,548 yards.
Sander's averaged 14.2 and 13.7 ppr ppg in 2019 and 2020. Miller's 3 best ppr ppg seasons were 14.6, 14.3 and 13.8.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
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zamboni
Footballguy
After 3 years of owning him, I was not planning on drafting him anyway unless at an insane discount, but I appreciate the heads up.
I got to admit I kind of like seeing him riled up that he does not think he's getting the ball enough.
facook
Footballguy
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Hurts eating up those TDs in the red zone either by rushing or passing (to Goedert) really hurt Sanders' overall value. I don't see that changing.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He has to stay on the field first.Hand me the dammed ball!
Aug 19, 2020NFLThigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2Sanders suffered a hamstring injury during preseason camp, which kept him out of the Week 1 game vs. Washington.
Oct 18, 2020NFLKnee Patella Sprain Sanders suffered a knee injury during the game vs. the Ravens. He missed the next two games.
Dec 31, 2020NFLKnee Patella Sprain Sanders missed the season finale game vs. Washington as he was a limited participant at Eagles' practice due to a knee issue.
Jan 5, 2020NFLKnee MCL Sprain Grade 2Sanders suffered an MCL sprain during the wild-card loss to the Seahawks
Oct 24, 2021NFLPedal Ankle Sprain Grade 2 Sanders suffered an ankle injury in the Eagles' Week 7 game against the Raiders. He missed three games
Nov 28, 2021NFLPedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Sanders suffered an ankle injury in Week 12's loss to the Giants. He was available in the next game
Dec 5, 2021NFLPedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Sanders re-injured the ankle that has bothered him since Week 7. He was fine for the next game
Dec 26, 2021NFLHand Metacarpal Fracture Sanders suffered a broken hand in Week 16's win over the Giants. he missed two games
This is true. I do like that he's appears super agitated that he's not getting the ball enough but it might also be a bit misplaced considering everytime they tried to give him a heavy workload last year he got hurt.
Reading between the lines I'm guessing part of what is causing him to squawk right now is Eagles are not trying to extend him and he's anxious to show more to the rest of the league before he hits FA in what will be a highly competitive RB market next year. Again I like that, but he's got to hold up.
