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RB Nick Chubb, HOU (1 Viewer)

So not ready for the start of the season...going to make for some tough decisions.
Likely not back to mid-year, at the earliest.
Likely on a pitch count and eased in over time. You’ll have to wait until 2025 for any potential return to form, and that’s iffy.

I’d hold, only because he’s an an absolute low in trade value right now.

$15,825,000 cap hit next season, with only $4 million in dead cap. It’s not only Chubb’s fantasy owners that will have a tough decision to make. He’ll be in his age 30 season in 2025 and that’s also when he’s a free agent.

I’m rooting for Chubb to make the comeback but it’s going to be tough.
 
Jeremy Fowler reports that "the #Browns reduced his salary cap hit from $15.85M to $6.275M".

He would've counted $4M against the cap if he'd been cut (from past bonuses), so that means Chubb's basically getting a 1-year $2.3M deal for 2024, with incentives that can increase that a lot.
 
Jeremy Fowler reports that "the #Browns reduced his salary cap hit from $15.85M to $6.275M".

He would've counted $4M against the cap if he'd been cut (from past bonuses), so that means Chubb's basically getting a 1-year $2.3M deal for 2024, with incentives that can increase that a lot.
This does not sound correct. How much money is Chubb actually making this year without incentives ? I doubt he is only getting $2.3 Million.
 
Jeremy Fowler reports that "the #Browns reduced his salary cap hit from $15.85M to $6.275M".

He would've counted $4M against the cap if he'd been cut (from past bonuses), so that means Chubb's basically getting a 1-year $2.3M deal for 2024, with incentives that can increase that a lot.
This does not sound correct. How much money is Chubb actually making this year without incentives ? I doubt he is only getting $2.3 Million.
I think he's making $7.75m if you don't count the $4M signing as part of this year pay. He can also pick up another $25K for every game he's active.

I think short version is he took a $4m pay reduction from his $11.75m base. Then they converted most of that $7.75 to bonus and added void years to spread out the cap hit.

But in real life terms, he's picking up $7.75M plus $25K per game for playing this year for the Browns vs not or hitting the open market looking for a new deal.
 
He's been arguably the best runner in the NFL for pretty much his entire career. Even if he lost 2 steps, he's still a starting caliber RB, and its possible he's a freak who maybe only loses a little bit coming back.

I think RB2 production is very much on the table for 2024, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was ready (for a more limited role to start) week 1.
 
He's going to win some leagues.
He's one of those guys I won't pay more than a 3rd round rookie pick for, but you may be right. His injury was severe however. I hate rostering guys the next year coming off a major injury.
I would probably pay a bit more than that, I've already made tentative enquiries to the Chubb owner as to what pick would get it done having a slew of late 2nds in the event I don't like what is on the board
 
He's going to win some leagues.
He's one of those guys I won't pay more than a 3rd round rookie pick for, but you may be right. His injury was severe however. I hate rostering guys the next year coming off a major injury.
I would probably pay a bit more than that, I've already made tentative enquiries to the Chubb owner as to what pick would get it done having a slew of late 2nds in the event I don't like what is on the board
I have Chubb in 1 league and would not trade him for a late 2nd. If that's what people are willing to pay, it's more worth it to just keep him.
 
Jeremy Fowler reports that "the #Browns reduced his salary cap hit from $15.85M to $6.275M".

He would've counted $4M against the cap if he'd been cut (from past bonuses), so that means Chubb's basically getting a 1-year $2.3M deal for 2024, with incentives that can increase that a lot.
This does not sound correct. How much money is Chubb actually making this year without incentives ? I doubt he is only getting $2.3 Million.
I think he's making $7.75m if you don't count the $4M signing as part of this year pay. He can also pick up another $25K for every game he's active.

I think short version is he took a $4m pay reduction from his $11.75m base. Then they converted most of that $7.75 to bonus and added void years to spread out the cap hit.

But in real life terms, he's picking up $7.75M plus $25K per game for playing this year for the Browns vs not or hitting the open market looking for a new deal.
I want to say that I stand corrected and ZWK was giving us good info. I blame the Jackson guy who writes for The Athletic and reported that Chubb only took a $4M pay cut. He was wrong and by default me to.

He took a $9.5m pay cut, his pay not counting previous paid out bonus or incentives he can earn bask is only $2.275m.
 
I wouldn't expect him back until later in the season.
What Terry Pluto is hearing about Nick Chubb's contract
As a Browns fan, I'd much rather see him back much later in the year with fresh legs for a playoff run and I'm thinking/hoping the front office is thinking the same way.
I think Foreman was sneaky great signing and could give them that power RB option if Chubb is out. I think he's a sizeable upgrade from Jerome Ford/Kareem Hunt. Both the Bears and Panthers were better when he was getting 15+ carries.
 
I have like zero confidence in him.

The injury was more complex than a standard or straightforward ACL tear. Dobbins had his complex ACL tear and was a little slower coming back than expected. He may miss camp/start the season on the PUP.

Feels like he won't be the same guy the first year back, if ever. I would think they try to limit the workload most of the year in hopes of having him as healthy as he can be going into the playoffs.

FBG has him at RB32. FAntasypros has him at RB32.

I honestly think I'd feel better taking Ford before Chubb with what we know at this point. As Chubb gets back into action, I think Ford still has a solid role. He probably keeps most of the pass catching work.
 
he's going to be on basically all of my best ball teams

understand all the negatives for sure but Nick bleeping Chubb in rounds 8-10 is not something my reptilian brain can pass up
 
What was the price?
1.08 + 2.07 + 2019 1st (which better be a late one w my team)

Had to do it man, I got my eyes on guys and I gotta get who I want.

Didn't last as long as I'd hoped, but I'd still do this trade 10 times outta 10.

Was a very proud Chubb owner.
I just went back to see the posts around this. And to think, you almost had Guice!

Guice was an incredible college athlete, i couldn't believe his nfl career
 
he's going to be on basically all of my best ball teams

understand all the negatives for sure but Nick bleeping Chubb in rounds 8-10 is not something my reptilian brain can pass up
I am absolutely with you on this. I will be sportin' Chubb this season, as well!
 
i took Guice over Chubb, still makes me sad!
I took them both. Only one really disappointed me. Guice could’ve been really good but couldn’t stay on the straight and narrow path to prove it. My rb room should’ve been set for 3-4 years at least with that draft
 
he's going to be on basically all of my best ball teams

understand all the negatives for sure but Nick bleeping Chubb in rounds 8-10 is not something my reptilian brain can pass up
FWIW, I started doing Underdog yesterday. His going as the RB43 on there.

I actually think that's a pretty solid price. I think he makes a lot more sense at that price tag. You don't NEED the early season production out of him at that point.

If he's able to get rolling late in the season, it could pay off. I don't think we're going to see anywhere near the same Chubb at any point next season. BUT, there's a non-zero chance he's productive. And at RB43, I'm interested enough to find out.
 
I honestly think I'd feel better taking Ford before Chubb with what we know at this point.
As of yesterday in the two FFPC contest that have enough data to really look at they are literally going right next to each other in both contests,b2b, kind of wild that is happening in both drafts. But point is nothing unusual about preferring Ford.

FWIW, I started doing Underdog yesterday. His going as the RB43 on there.

I actually think that's a pretty solid price
I share the same concerns as you with regard to his being able to return and play effectively this year. Felt like odds were I'd never draft him even if I ended up doing 100+ drafts, kind of assumed other people would be drawn to his name and not take the injury recovery as negatively as I do.

To my surprise I ended up drafting him already, last week in my last completed draft. An FFPC Best Ball tournament I found myself at end of round 11 with only 3 RBs' and made him my pick as RB44.

I am someone who loves discounts on players out due to suspension or injury the first few weeks of the season. Premise being those are minimal bye weeks and then I get the player when it's time to win championships and money. I don't love this one though as my degree of confidence it pays off later is not high, but like you are saying at that price tag, especialy when need is present, I'm ok with it and if my concerns about his recovery turn out to be overblown I'll have a reason to be happy about it. He's not a target, but I can get behind paying this price a few more times if need be.
 
i took Guice over Chubb, still makes me sad!
I thought before the draft that year that there were 3 RBs that would have been rb1 in a lot of classes: Saquon, Guice, and Chubb. Guice was 2 years younger and seemed to have a better y1 opportunity so it made sense taking him first.

But the people that took Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel over Chubb to let me get him at 1.07 are the ones I owe a great debt of gratitude.
 
But the people that took Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel over Chubb to let me get him at 1.07 are the ones I owe a great debt of gratitude.
I would be one of those (Kerryon at 1.06) but I was able to follow that up with getting Chubb at 2.01 so it didn't really hurt me.
 
i took Guice over Chubb, still makes me sad!
I thought before the draft that year that there were 3 RBs that would have been rb1 in a lot of classes: Saquon, Guice, and Chubb. Guice was 2 years younger and seemed to have a better y1 opportunity so it made sense taking him first.

But the people that took Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel over Chubb to let me get him at 1.07 are the ones I owe a great debt of gratitude.
I don't think people who took any of those RB's over Chubb have anything to hang their head down about with respect to their scouting acumen or being a doofus. The production, afraid that hurts, but all of those RB's looked good out of the gate. Kerryon and Sony had messed up knees, Guice had a bad knee and turned out to maybe a sexual predator. It's just a reminder of how things can go in ways we can't possibly know and why luck is a part of this game. A whole lot of stuff looks brilliant or stupid with beneift of hindsight.

Now if somone loved Chubb and stuck with him over those guy they deserve kudo's for identifying what turned out to be one of the best pure runners of our last decade but if you went with one of those other RB's you were not bad, just not very lucky.
 
Now if somone loved Chubb and stuck with him over those guy they deserve kudo's for identifying what turned out to be one of the best pure runners of our last decade but if you went with one of those other RB's you were not bad, just not very lucky.

I liked Chubb over most of those guys but took Kerryon first because I thought Chubb would last..........and he did. I was able to get both. But I was in a unique position having the 1.06 and 2.01 so I could gamble like that. If I only had the 1.06 I probably would have taken Chubb there.
 
Now if somone loved Chubb and stuck with him over those guy they deserve kudo's for identifying what turned out to be one of the best pure runners of our last decade but if you went with one of those other RB's you were not bad, just not very lucky.

I liked Chubb over most of those guys but took Kerryon first because I thought Chubb would last..........and he did. I was able to get both. But I was in a unique position having the 1.06 and 2.01 so I could gamble like that. If I only had the 1.06 I probably would have taken Chubb there.


People coming here looking for Chubb updates might get upset I'm not talking about Chubb so I'll at least start with him and it's slow right now.

I was most definitely lower on Chubb then consensus, never have a problem admitting my mistakes. One issue was Carlos Hyde. They had just signed him that off-season, was a decent player. The second issue was Chubbs lack of involvement in the passing game which I felt limited his upside in general and made it more difficult for him to put up stats in a RBBC with Hyde.

Knowing what we knew at the time I think those concerns were not unfounded. Hyde kept Chubb buried for about half his rookie season until they traded Hyde away and forced Hue Jackson to play Chubb. But it's close to impossible in a rookie draft to forecast that a team that just signed a guy is going to turn around and trade him, that seems more like wishful thinking then something rooted in reality of happening.

Chubbs lack of pass catching has in fact limited his upside. He's obviously been really good and worth the pick but his 4 best fantasy finishes in PPG are 9, 9, 10 and 12. That's really good, I was coming off a year I loaded up on Kamara and was looking for that kind of upside and Chubbs not been that. Chubb cracked just over 17PPG as his career high. He's averaged 15.48 fantasy points a game in his career, less then 1.5 points over De'Andre Swift who a lot of people around here dislike and I mention just to highlight how impactful passing game involvemenet can be.

So I had Guice and Sony both ranked over Chubb.

I loved Guice. After the NFL draft, where he fell in relation to other RB's, I went on a massive watching of his game looking for flaws since I had pick 2 in two different leagues and just concluded his was elite, did not care what issues the NFL had with him. I think from a pure talent angle I was correct but again I don't know he'll blow out his knee and sexaul assault issues would run him out of the league. To be fair some talk about his lack of maturity being a turn off was present, and rumored to be why he fell but hard to know that stuff from where we sit. He will go down as my worst pick of all time as of now, in part because I've had a good knack for getting out of players I don't like once I draft them but I just lost out with him.

I drafted Sony twice, one of those over Chubb and believe it or not it ended up working out. Both leagues I drafted him I traded him after his rookie season when he got on that end of season playoff run. I knew he had a bone on bone knee issue when I drafted him but thought it was a few years away but he just did not look explosive to me, did not look like the same guy at the end of season for Georgia. The league I did not take him over Chubb I used him to trade for Kittle in a TEP league, I also had to move my first back a few picks into round two but all in all that worked out fine, and again in that league I did not take him over Chubb. The league I did take him over Chubb I traded him away for first round pick in the next year's draft, which was 2020. That pick ended up 1.7 and I took Lamb.

Long story short I'll own preferring Guice and Sony over Chubb, feel like it was valid knowing what I did at the time. In the end I was wrong but my concerns on Chubb were not misplaced and I came out ok on that wrong call at least one place.
 
Long story short I'll own preferring Guice and Sony over Chubb, feel like it was valid knowing what I did at the time. In the end I was wrong but my concerns on Chubb were not misplaced and I came out ok on that wrong call at least one place.
those main concerns was a big reason that even though I liked him best, I figured he would drop to allow me to get him a bit later. In dynasty, I wasn't too worried about Hyde because I wasn't really drafting Chubb to step in right away. It was a longer term play. I thought Hyde was fine but wouldn't keep Chubb down for long....even if it meant his second year.

RB's are a crapshoot much of the time. This is just another good example of why.
 
many of you may/may not remember, but Chubb was considered the 2nd coming of Jim Brown pre-injury in college.
There was no way a machine like this man was going to allow an injury to break him... There was no way I was passing.
 
he's going to be on basically all of my best ball teams

understand all the negatives for sure but Nick bleeping Chubb in rounds 8-10 is not something my reptilian brain can pass up
FWIW, I started doing Underdog yesterday. His going as the RB43 on there.

I actually think that's a pretty solid price. I think he makes a lot more sense at that price tag. You don't NEED the early season production out of him at that point.

If he's able to get rolling late in the season, it could pay off. I don't think we're going to see anywhere near the same Chubb at any point next season. BUT, there's a non-zero chance he's productive. And at RB43, I'm interested enough to find out.
After 140 underdog drafts, exposure is 13% chubb and only 6% ford.

uncomfortable taking chubb because he'll probably hinder your chances of getting to the playoffs, but he does have that week 17 elite upside cold weather game at home vs miami. with a goal of finishing 1st in a sea of thousands of entries, you have to take shots at that upside. bet is that week 17 i'd rather have chubb than ford on my roster.
 
many of you may/may not remember, but Chubb was considered the 2nd coming of Jim Brown pre-injury in college.
There was no way a machine like this man was going to allow an injury to break him... There was no way I was passing.
I distinctly recall Todd Gurley looking like the best RB prospect in years, Gurley getting hurt, Chubb coming in, and looking even better than Gurley did. He was my RB2 in that class, and only because I thought Barkley would be the PPR monster he was as a rookie, I always though Chubb was the better runner.

I hope Chubb can make it back to close to what he was. He was the best runner in the NFL (maybe even overall RB) from 2020-2022, he just lost more carries than most because most teams didn't have another high-end starter caliber RB on the roster. I feel like if Hunt never gets in trouble in KC, Chubb might have had stats more in line with Derrick Henry...or alternatively I guess, been hurt more often.
 
8 months from major knee surgery and he's doing this:
LINK to video
Chubb ain't human!
Very impressive, though obviously its more lateral movement than weight strength that will determine how he'll bounce back. Still, his old role is 100% on the table if he's good to go, and he's going well in the RB4 range alongside guys like Chase Brown and Zach Charbonnet, who have a fraction of his talent/upside.
 

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