RB Nyheim Hines, CLE (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

If he turns into McCluster does that mean we have to pick him up and cut him 10 times over his first few years like everyone did with McCluster...

This strikes me as a very reasonable projection for Hines in most small-roster leagues.

McCluster seems like a much better comp than McCaffrey, but he was really only fantasy relevant in one season. Even in PPR, I don't believe he ever averaged 8 ppg in any season other than his second (2011). McCluster was much more useful from NFL perspective than fantasy perspective.

 

[Boston]

Luck was the Colts starting QB from 2012-2016, and the Colts never had a RB with more than 38 receptions in any of those seasons; that happened 2 times, once by Bradshaw (2014) and once by Gore (2016). A Colts RB only had more than 28 receptions 1 other time (Gore, 2015).

Meanwhile, in college, even when he played WR full time, Hines' season high was 43 receptions. In his final season, he played RB and had 26 receptions.

I will take the under on 60 receptions - way under.

I don't have any issues with your logic...it is sound...that being said I do think a scenario where Hines gets around 60 receptions is easy to see...all based on his skill set and playing for a bad team playing catch-up on a weekly basis (with a new Coach by the way)...by no means am I saying he is a definite but if he is your #5-#6 RB it is very much worth rolling the dice on...I don't put a huge amount of stock in Hines college #'s...if you look at some of last year's RB receptions leaders and their best college #'s there is a decent disconnect:

Kamara-82-40

Duke-77-38

Bell-85-35

Gordon-83-19

Hunt-63-41

White-56-39

CMac-80-45

Now I am not saying he is the player any of them are...but I do think it is easy to see that reception totals in college do not reflect receiving usage in the NFL all the time...Darren Sproles's best year was 32...looking at Hines IMO it is all about the opportunity...he is in a great spot to be productive right out of the gate...definitely worth a second round rookie pick...not gonna draft him before any of the first-tier RBs or WRs but after that he could end up being a very nice depth RB...I think it is real important to be able to look at every player and be open to what their up and downside is...there is a lot of upside here...just don't reach for it...if it doesn't come to you on draft day you will survive but if it does you could have a little PPR diamond in the rough...

 

[Football Jones]

Why can’t Hines be this year’s McCaffrey? 

In short, I believe there's a fairly large difference in both talent & situation.

 

[Interseptopus]

Luck was the Colts starting QB from 2012-2016, and the Colts never had a RB with more than 38 receptions in any of those seasons; that happened 2 times, once by Bradshaw (2014) and once by Gore (2016). A Colts RB only had more than 28 receptions 1 other time (Gore, 2015).

Meanwhile, in college, even when he played WR full time, Hines' season high was 43 receptions. In his final season, he played RB and had 26 receptions.

I will take the under on 60 receptions - way under.

This would make sense if the same offensive coordinator was in Indianapolis in 2018 as it was 2012-2016.

I highly doubt they brought in Nick Sirianni to run the Colts offense from 2012-2017. I think the above statistics that you provide is an obvious reason why the Colts went with a new OC from a team that uses their RB a lot for receptions.

An interesting, and fair, comparison for Hines is McCluster. Oddly enough, Sirianni was a member of the KC coaching staff while McCluster was used there (very effectively might I add).

Instead of comparing apples (RB receptions during Andrew Luck era in IND) to green beans (projected RB receptions under a new OC Sirianni), maybe we should look at how RBs were used in KC during Sirianni's time there to better project how a RB might be used under his tenure in IND . After all, I think it's reasonable to say if that's where he was for 9 years, he is likely learning a lot of his concepts from that team and is why IND hired him in the first place to be their OC. So let's take a look at that... 

2009: 52 receptions for RBs
2010: 59 receptions. Dexter McCluster had 21 on 39 targets
2011: 19 receptions. McCluster had 46 on 64 targets
2012: 69 receptions. McCluster had 52 on 77 targets
2013: 81 receptions. McCluster had 53 on 83 targets (used more every single year)
2014: 56 receptions
2015: 51 receptions
2016: 66 receptions
2017: 80 receptions

While Sirianni was there, and watched McCluster be used to his most effectiveness, McCluster averaged 66 targets, 43 receptions. If Hines were to get that, every single person in here would be thrilled.

Furthermore, during Sirianni’s time in KC, RB receptions were under 50 only once.
I don’t think Hines will get 60 receptions, but I think 50 is possible, and 40 is very achievable

 

[ZWK]

The 2012-16 Colts RBs (sorted by rushing attempts) were: Frank Gore, Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard, Donald Brown, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dan Herron, Robert Turbin, Delone Carter. Not a great batch of receiving backs, except for Bradshaw.

Bradshaw had 55 receptions in his 19 games in Indy as a change of pace back (46 per 16 games). That seems like a plausible projection for Hines assuming he earns that role.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Maybe luck is adverse to the dump off to rbs in the passing game? Unless the play is called for a screen to the rb...perhaps he likes to just push it down the field....

60 reception seems like an awfully high projection to me

 

[Interseptopus]

Maybe luck is adverse to the dump off to rbs in the passing game? Unless the play is called for a screen to the rb...perhaps he likes to just push it down the field....

60 reception seems like an awfully high projection to me

Who knows what he will be post 18 months from surgery and throwing a football... he just started throwing this week is my understanding. Can't expect him to be real great at airing it deep. It's very possible his shoulder injury has him relying more on shorter routes, and it's possible he hasn't had someone with the hands of Hines in his entire career. 

Case Keenum went from completing 43 passes to a RB in 2016 (with Gurley of all RBs) to 73 in MIN in 2017... all because of a different offensive system. 

 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Who knows what he will be post 18 months from surgery and throwing a football... he just started throwing this week is my understanding. Can't expect him to be real great at airing it deep. It's very possible his shoulder injury has him relying more on shorter routes, and it's possible he hasn't had someone with the hands of Hines in his entire career. 

Case Keenum went from completing 43 passes to a RB in 2016 (with Gurley of all RBs) to 73 in MIN in 2017... all because of a different offensive system. 

 

Very good point if luck isnt 100% maybe he is forced to dink n dunk...

 

[Tau837]

Very good point if luck isnt 100% maybe he is forced to dink n dunk...

If Luck can’t throw deep, defenses will catch on quickly and sit on the short/intermediate stuff. I don’t see how that can be a positive for Hines. 

Come on, guys. 

 

[Jello_Biafra]

If Luck can't throw deep, his career is over and it won't matter.

 

[Tau837]

 An interesting, and fair, comparison for Hines is McCluster. Oddly enough, Sirianni was a member of the KC coaching staff while McCluster was used there (very effectively might I add).

McCluster was only fantasy relevant for one season. So this comparison does not bode well for Hines fantasy-wise. 

 

[Chaka]

Luck was the Colts starting QB from 2012-2016, and the Colts never had a RB with more than 38 receptions in any of those seasons; that happened 2 times, once by Bradshaw (2014) and once by Gore (2016). A Colts RB only had more than 28 receptions 1 other time (Gore, 2015).

Meanwhile, in college, even when he played WR full time, Hines' season high was 43 receptions. In his final season, he played RB and had 26 receptions.

I will take the under on 60 receptions - way under.

How many of those teams did Frank Reich coach?

 

[Interseptopus]

McClustervwas only fantasyvrelevant for one season. So this comparison does not bode well for Hines fantasy-wise. 

well cmc was too aggressive apparently so someone mentioned mccluster. 

maybe we can say Darren sproles. or will someone have a problem with that? maybe next year we will be calling a rookie the next Hines. 

I'm not saying this gu y will be a rb2. a fill in flex and bye week rb in dynasty for a 2nd or later draft pick is excellent. RBS who only catch passes have a lot of value in ppr. and I see Hines as one to have a lot of potential in that category. I get it, you dont buy it, and that's fine.  

forest through the trees point: IND OC has been a coach on teams that pass the ball plenty to their RBs, so using the luck era averages to predict 2018 is foolish 

 

[Tau837]

maybe we can say Darren sproles. or will someone have a problem with that

Yes, I think he is very unlikely to measure up to Sproles. Particularly not the Sproles who played for Payton with Brees.

I get it, you don't buy it, and that's fine.

 

[Interseptopus]

Yes, I think he is very unlikely to measure up to Sproles. Particularly not the Sproles who played for Payton with Brees.

I get it, you don't buy it, and that's fine.

ok. well, point remains that the OC is from a system that passes to their RBS lots 

 

[Tau837]

ok. well, point remains that the OC is from a system that passes to their RBS lots 

Yes. RBs, plural.

 

[Interseptopus]

Yes. RBs, plural.

ok man

at least I got you to admit that the OC likes to throw to RBs. which was the forest through the trees point

 

[Faust]

Following this week's minicamp, Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star believes it's "clear" the Colts have "big designs" for rookie Nyheim Hines on offense.

Keefer added Hines was "among the most active players on offense" in spring practices, lining up at multiple positions, including the backfield, slot, out wide, and running the ball as well as catching it deep. Hines blazed a 4.38 forty at the Combine and was a do-it-all Swiss Army Knife at NC State. The Colts figure to come up with multiple ways to get the ball in his hands as much as possible, including as a returner. Hines is a late-round sleeper for those betting on pure talent.

Source: Indianapolis Star 

Jun 15 - 10:05 AM

 

[barackdhouse]

I can't stop drafting this guy. 

 

[BigTex]

I’ve been overlooking him but that “might” be a mistake. My draft is not until late August so I have plenty of time. I already have Mack on my squad so I better take another look at him.

Tex

 

[Faust]

The Indianapolis Star reports fourth-round RB Nyheim Hines continues to be used out of the slot in training camp.

Per reporter Stephen Holder, Hines is also frequently sent in motion. Hines saw a lot of time in the slot at NC State. The No. 104 overall pick is putting himself in excellent position to seize third-down reps in the Colts' up for grabs backfield.

Source: Indianapolis Star

Aug 2 - 3:14 PM

 

[mlball77]

Was reportedly a lackluster performance by Hines yesterday.  Just one game, so hopefully he plays better going forward. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Was reportedly a lackluster performance by Hines yesterday.  Just one game, so hopefully he plays better going forward. 

He was a disaster from what I am seeing. 7 yards on 3 carries, no targets and muffed 3 kicks. 

 

[cloppbeast]

They basically just used him as a standard running back when reports from camp said they'd use him out of the slot and such for mismatches. His college film shows he will not translate to the NFL as a standard plug-and-play out of the back-field. Since most teams just use a vanilla offense during pre-season, I'm not concerned. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Glad I sold him

 

[dahabi]

Glad I sold him

Yea I was always higher on the idea of Wilkins being a more consistent prospect, and last night was a slight bit of affirmation of that.

 

[Tau837]

Glad I sold him

What? After all your posts in June about him, you sold the next Darren Sproles?!? 

 

[Interseptopus]

What? After all your posts in June about him, you sold the next Darren Sproles?!? 

yeah, my opinion on players is very fluid. I looked at what other said and, unlike some in here, used what they said to reform my opinion. why else would I be here if I didnt want advice from others? I'm not all about the pissing contests like some are. you and others have said a lot of great stuff on many players that I may agree or disagree with but in the end I listen to it and use it to either reaffirm my thoughts in a player or second guess my expectations. 

it doesnt hurt I was given an offer of Jordan Howard, lockett, and a 1st rounder for Hines, Stafford, and a 2nd. couldnt turn it down. accepted not really wanting to, but I'm now glad I did (flipped Howard in a deal including a 1st as well, allowing me to eventually get 7 of the top 14-16 picks next year)

 

[Faust]

Nyheim Hines rushed five times for 12 yards and caught 1-of-2 targets for nine yards in the Colts' second preseason game Monday night.

Hines' biggest error was a lost fumble on the opening kickoff of the second half; he's now fumbled four times through two preseason games, which is a large concern for the rookie. He's never going to see the field if he can't hang onto the ball, and Hines was working behind all three of Christine Michael, Jordan Wilkins, and Josh Ferguson at running back this evening. He's lightyears away from fantasy relevance as a rookie. The coaches simply can't trust him at the moment.

Aug 20 - 11:27 PM

 

[strong]

crickets on this guy. but i think he's a solid buy low / pre-hype stash right now.

his usage ticked down a bit in week 2, but he was still on the field a lot and has seen 43% of the snaps through two weeks. (for comparison, lindsay has been on the field for about 38% of the broncos plays.)

hines' snap count dipped a couple points with mack's return but not all that much. plus he got a carry inside the 10 that he converted so the team is trusting him in high leverage situations.

i'm not sure what to make of him but... sometimes i look for guys whose PT exceeds their usage and hope the usage normalizes.

and a 4.30/40 RB that the team trusts to keep andrew luck on his feet is someone i'm targeting, especially at his current price.

 

[Chaka]

crickets on this guy. but i think he's a solid buy low / pre-hype stash right now.

his usage ticked down a bit in week 2, but he was still on the field a lot and has seen 43% of the snaps through two weeks. his snap count dipped a couple points with mack's return but not all that much. plus he got a carry inside the 10 that he converted so the team is trusting him in high leverage situations.

i'm not sure what to make of him but... sometimes i look for guys whose PT exceeds their usage and hope the usage normalizes.

and a 4.30/40 RB that the team trusts to keep andrew luck on his feet is someone i'm targeting, especially at his current price.

I like him but he's already second fiddle, or third, to Wilkins so what happens when Mack comes back?

 

[strong]

I like him but he's already second fiddle, or third, to Wilkins so what happens when Mack comes back?

mack already came back. my point was that hines didn't see much of a decrease in PT when he did.

there's reasons he's a bit off the radar, but imo any homerun type RB on the field that much (especially in their first two professional games) is probably worth monitoring.

 

[Chaka]

mack already came back. my point was that hines didn't see much of a decrease in PT when he did.

there's reasons he's a bit off the radar, but imo any homerun type RB on the field that much (especially in their first two professional games) is probably worth monitoring.

My bad. Really thought Mack missed last week.

I like watching Himes run. Maybe he could start commanding a larger share as the season progressed. He's on my watch list but I'm not willing to drop anyone for him yet.

 

[cloppbeast]

He's decent out of the back field, but he should never get carries.

 

[rickyg]

Droppable in redraft non ppr, rt?  Thinking of dropping for a Ronald jones stash in case Jones is active tomorriw night and barber continues to underwhelm 

 

[Elevencents]

Droppable in redraft non ppr, rt?  Thinking of dropping for a Ronald jones stash in case Jones is active tomorriw night and barber continues to underwhelm 

If it’s between Hines and Jones, I would take the risk with Jones. Indy will never have one back you are comfortable starting this year. Jones, while it appears he is in the doghouse and REALLY underwhelmed through camp, at least has an opportunity with the way Barber has performed. I am trying to buy but am by no means overextending myself. I made the mistake of watching his college highlights and the talent is most assuredly there. 

 

[strong]

Droppable in redraft non ppr, rt?  Thinking of dropping for a Ronald jones stash in case Jones is active tomorriw night and barber continues to underwhelm 

tough choice. i still think hines is intriguing ROS... i just like the way the team is deploying him and how much a focal of the offense he seems to be even when he's not getting the ball.

i still think there's a chance he's getting a healthy amount of touches down the stretch.

 

[strong]

hines was in on 73% of the snaps yesterday.

gamebook

 

[Tau837]

i still think hines is intriguing ROS

I really don't see why. Barring injuries that force volume to him, I don't see how he can be a viable fantasy player in typical leagues. Same as I thought in the offseason. His skill set is too limited.

 

[steelwind]

He almost leads the other backs in snaps.  And he gets red zone looks.  Their offense identify is confirmed to always be intermediate routes or dink/dunk.  He is a sleeper given how everyone is down on Luck.  I plan on picking up after waivers clear for free in my standard league.

I actually think Hines should be the starter because he can also run between the tackles.  It makes them more unpredictable.

 

[nighttime90]

So who else started him today?

Hello Phillip Lindsey 2.0

 

[Interseptopus]

So who else started him today?

Hello Phillip Lindsey 2.0

Lindsay is Hines 2.0. 

they have identical combined just about. looked great today. if he gets used like this weekly he will be huge. still glad I traded him in a deal for picks, as this kind of production is unlikely weekly, but I could sure use the help at rb

 

[Faust]

Nyheim Hines rushed four times for 10 yards and caught 9-of-11 targets for 63 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts' Week 4 loss to the Texans.

Hines' 11 targets tied with Chester Rogers for the team lead on a day Andrew Luck uncorked a career-high 62 pass attempts. With no Jack Doyles (hip) and T.Y. Hilton in and out of the game with chest and hamstring injuries, Hines became Luck's most trustworthy option. Both of his scores were red-zone successes, from 14 and nine yards out. The 14-yarder was an incredible leaping catch over the top of Tyrann Mathieu. With the Colts having zero run game, Hines is essentially the extension of their nonexistent rushing offense. He needs to be owned in all formats.

Sep 30 - 5:21 PM

 

[steelwind]

His metrics are up there with Kamara and Ekeler.  I picked him up just before kickoff. Has been a target of mine and finally made the bench spot for him.

 

[nighttime90]

Lindsay is Hines 2.0. 

they have identical combined just about. looked great today. if he gets used like this weekly he will be huge. still glad I traded him in a deal for picks, as this kind of production is unlikely weekly, but I could sure use the help at rb

Agreed. I don’t expect Hines to get this sort of weekly production but I was desperate for a RB2 with Burkhead going down and I think he can stay in that range for PPR leagues going forward. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Agreed. I don’t expect Hines to get this sort of weekly production but I was desperate for a RB2 with Burkhead going down and I think he can stay in that range for PPR leagues going forward. 

I wouldnt want him as my rb2. floor is too low. flex would be fantastic 

If hes your rb2 my advice would be to look to trade. you've got to be deep elsewhere if you were relying on burkhead 

 

[strong]

nice to hear more than crickets on this guy.

 

[Truebluey]

That TD catch was tremendous, showed he has very good football instincts and athleticism.

 

[The Frankman]

Hines game seemed to me an compilation of 3 things: 1) Indy got behind a lot 2) Indy is lacking at TE 3) Indy has no running game to speak of.

When Doyle gets healthy and Turbin enters the RB committee that will blunt a lot of Hines' momentum. 

 

[Elevencents]

This backfield has been as tortuous as a soap opera. Is Hines looking like the lead guy? Will there ever be a “lead” guy? It feels like each of the 3 guys has gotten praise at some point. I never invested in Mack because I felt like even though he was the early favorite ahead of the depth chart it would ultimately come down to Wilkins or Hines but still not sure if any are worth investing in.