Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Phillip Lindsay, IND (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
spodog
Footballguy
No, not even close. Just citing Marcus As an example of a guy whose body type would have indicated he should have been injured all the time. To the contrary the guy knew how to turn his body to avoid big hits and was healthy the majority of his careerSo after 2 games Lindsay = Marcus Allen?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I know what you meant - but again, the Warrick Dunn’s & Marcus Allen’s are few & far between.
at this point we don’t know that about Lindsay. Let’s see how he holds up to a D-lineman or safety flattening him. Let’s see what happens when the weather turns for the worse.
Fair or not, the jury’s out on Lindsay & it’s up to him to continue to prove people wrong about undersized RBs. He’ll have to prove it on a weekly basis.
I believe the Broncos would be smart to make a more even distribution between Freeman & Lindsay, specifically because of his body type.
But that’s up to the Broncos.
Tom Hagen
Footballguy
hamsterdam
Footballguy
I certainly don’t have the data, but I feel like there’s a bit of a catch 22.
The bigger, punishing, wear down a defense guys get dinged because they are bigger targets to hit, that look for contact often. They get punished themselves while punishing the defense.
Whereas the smaller guys are susceptible to injuries due to the impact of hits because they’re small, or one-hit KO type of injuries.
The bigger, punishing, wear down a defense guys get dinged because they are bigger targets to hit, that look for contact often. They get punished themselves while punishing the defense.
Whereas the smaller guys are susceptible to injuries due to the impact of hits because they’re small, or one-hit KO type of injuries.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Does Lindsay have a prototypical RB's body/frame? No.
Can he survive as a main featured back in the NFL? Jury is out but I don't see how you rule that out just by stature alone.
He began as a pure starter for Colorado in 2015, starting 6 of 13 games and netting 653 yards and 6 TDs off of 140 carries. Then went to full time starter in 2016, getting 1,252 yards and 16 touchdowns off of 244 carries. The next year he had 301 carries for 1,474 yards.
That number of carries -- and his success with them on the ground (this doesn't include his prolific pass catching) -- points to his being able to carry a full load at the collegiate level.
You can say, "Well that's college, not the NFL." Can't dispute that, but you could say the same in regards to potential success at the next level for any back coming into the NFL.
He is small, and in theory the NFL doesn't favor a small man's game.
But to me, all signs point to the fact that he can carry a featured load.
He won't likely ever have to prove that, though, as the *right* thing to do for Denver is to use him in tandem to keep both their guys fresh. It's working so far.
Can he survive as a main featured back in the NFL? Jury is out but I don't see how you rule that out just by stature alone.
He began as a pure starter for Colorado in 2015, starting 6 of 13 games and netting 653 yards and 6 TDs off of 140 carries. Then went to full time starter in 2016, getting 1,252 yards and 16 touchdowns off of 244 carries. The next year he had 301 carries for 1,474 yards.
That number of carries -- and his success with them on the ground (this doesn't include his prolific pass catching) -- points to his being able to carry a full load at the collegiate level.
You can say, "Well that's college, not the NFL." Can't dispute that, but you could say the same in regards to potential success at the next level for any back coming into the NFL.
He is small, and in theory the NFL doesn't favor a small man's game.
But to me, all signs point to the fact that he can carry a featured load.
He won't likely ever have to prove that, though, as the *right* thing to do for Denver is to use him in tandem to keep both their guys fresh. It's working so far.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
What are people giving or taking for this guy? He's destined for committee in Denver for the foreseeable future, dynasty or redraft. Solid RB2 at best.
Last edited by a moderator:
lardonastick
Footballguy
I'd need more than a random future 2nd round rookie pick at this point to give him up, but I'd concede that is unlikely to happen. In a start 2rb 3wr 1 flex, non-ppr dynasty with around 375 offensive players rostered.
He's a hold for me, unless I was offered a future 1st.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He's a hold for me - and I wouldn't actively look to obtain him in the leagues where I don't own him. I wouldn't take a second round pick, and no one is going to pay more.
zoonation
Footballguy
You don't have to lower your shoulder and deliver a hit to "wear down a defense". Making guys miss around the LOS so they have to recover and run back up field is a great way to wear down a defense.
the lone star
Footballguy
Will Lindsay be getting the start, or will it be Freeman?
the lone star
Footballguy
Also, curious here, but what are some stats/metrics that seem to have predicted Lindsay's success thus far?
Buffaloes
Footballguy
It doesn't really matter who starts. It's been Freeman the past 2 games but the usage has followed a predictable pattern. Freeman and Lindsay get the vast majority of substantive carries. Booker and Freeman split 3rd downs and Freeman gets GL and game salting duties.
The staff has been going with the hot hand approach so I think it depends on who looks the part as opposed to who starts. Lindsay is far and away the best rb on the roster with only his size being in question. Not sure if that answers your question but cliffs notes is Freeman probably starts but its a rotation
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I get that you love Lindsay but it has only been two games and this simply isn't true. Freeman was much better in college and drafted where Lindsay was not. Freeman will have a longer NFL career than Lindsay.
Last edited by a moderator:
OnTheReg
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Agree, I just wanted to illustrate how stupid it is after 2 games to speak in absolutes
Dismattle
Footballguy
Guess if you live in Colorado you could have gone and watched him play Sounds like the type player that most are going to be well aware of via both newspaper and the drinking fountain
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Buffaloes
Footballguy
I've watched him play for 4-5 years now and I've watched Freeman for several years as well. From a talent standpoint, Lindsay is the better rb. Freeman has ideal size, but from a skills standpoint, I mean it when I say he's the most talented rb on the roster.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Well that settles it then. Thanks. Or......it is just your opinion is different than mine. Agreed?
Dismattle
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Dismattle
Footballguy
Only argument I could really see having merit I mean aside from this is the Lindsay thread The guy looks to be a legit NFL baller Now if next Season the Broncos have a shot at the next Barkley...
Just wanted to remind everyone that the first day of training camp, LB Brandon Marshall was raving about Lindsay and calling him the third down back. After one day.
I would imagine a talent like Brandon Marshall can spot other talent like that on the field pretty well. Once I read that, I decided I wasn’t dropping or trading Lindsay until the season started or he was cut.
It’s a pretty big compliment for a 1st day rookie to recieve that kind of praise from a seasoned vet like that.
I would imagine a talent like Brandon Marshall can spot other talent like that on the field pretty well. Once I read that, I decided I wasn’t dropping or trading Lindsay until the season started or he was cut.
It’s a pretty big compliment for a 1st day rookie to recieve that kind of praise from a seasoned vet like that.
Truebluey
Footballguy
#1 in DVOA after 2 weeks. Still early, but that's impressive. Ahead of Gurley and Kamara.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
Can we get a BMI analysis from Bri?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here is a whole topic about the assumption you are making.
FJ is making a different argument than you are but it essentially boils down to the same thing, people do not think smaller RB are durable enough to handle massive workload.
The whole size or weight related ideas are difficult to pin down because there are so many different variables that go into a RB opportunity to be a "featured" RB and people have different definitions for this as well clouding the issue.
If a player does not touch the ball much, but stays healthy it isn't really the same thing as a player getting a lot of touches and staying healthy. So I think a number of rushing attempts should be one data point to consider when looking at how players have actually performed in the NFL, which can then be cross referenced with their weight.
Research sample For single seasons, from 2000 to 2017, played RB, requiring Rushing Att >= 200, sorted by descending Weight
The reason I use 2000-2017 is because PFR has combine data from 2000 but not before that. 200 rushing attempts in a season isn't a very high threshold, but it does a good job of showing a player who did get the ball a lot and was able to sustain that over enough games to at least amass 200 rushing attempts.
200 rushing attempts is not always a good season for a RB. Mileage varies, but at least it is a lot of carries. Enough carries that the guy might get hurt due to attrition of multiple impacts that a player with fewer touches would have less risk of.
This sample is incomplete, as many of the players on the list were drafted before 2000 and PFR does not have accurate combine data of those players from before 2000. So players such as Emmitt Smith who was 210 lbs at the combine is being listed as a higher weight than this, because Smith added weight after he entered the NFL. Also the older players may have had more 200 rushing attempt seasons prior to 2000 that are not accounted for here.
Although 215 lbs is arbitrary, we have to choose some cut off point to differentiate heavier from lighter RB.
Using 215lbs 269 out of 396 players in the sample were 215 lbs or higher. So about 2 out of 3 RB weighed 215 or more lbs.
This by itself shows that it is more likely for a heavier RB to get 200 rushing attempts than a player who is lighter than that. That is a fact of history. That doesn't mean that a lighter RB is more likely to be injured though, it just means the majority of the players who have had a 200 rushing attempt season are heavier than 215
One way to look at if the player had durability is to look at if they had more than one season with 200 rushing attempts. There are a lot of one year wonders in this sample. While this ay be due to benching and a lot of other reasons besides being injured (its not Chester Taylors fault the Vikings drafted Adrian Peterson after only giving him one year to be their feature RB for example) a player at bare minimum needs to be healthy for 10 or more games to get 200 rushing attempts.
The number of players over 215 lbs who only had one 200 rushing attempt season was 35. 13% of them. For the RB lighter than 215 there were 12. 9% of them. So it is slightly more likely for a heavier RB to only have one 200 rushing attempt season than a smaller one will.
If anyone wants to look at how often each of these players were injured, I will list the players who had two or more 200 rushing attempt seasons.
RB 215 or more
Brandon Jacobs 3 seasons
Jerome Bettis* 4 seasons
Eddie Lacy 2 seasons
LeGarrette Blount 2 season
Jamal Lewis 8 seasons
Jonathan Stewart 3 seasons
LenDale White 2 seasons
Kevan Barlow 2 seasons
Michael Turner 3 seasons
Eddie George 4 seasons
Shonn Greene 2 seasons
Fred Taylor 6 seasons
Ronnie Brown 4 seasons
Deuce McAllister 4 seasons
Mike Anderson 2 seasons
Stephen Davis 4 seasons
Jeremy Hill 3 seasons
Latavius Murray 2 season
Carlos Hyde 2 seasons
Ezekial Elliot 2 seasons
Steven Jackson 8 seasons
Larry Johnson 2 seasons
Willis McGahee 5 seasons
Anthony Thomas 3 seasons
Arian Foster 4 seasons
Todd Gurley 3 season
Ricky Williams 5 seasons
Shaun Alexander 7 seasons
Le'Veon Bell 4 seasons
Corey Dillon 5 seasons
Jordan Howard 2 seasons
Alfred Morris 4 seasons
Doug Martin 2 seasons
Cedric Benson 4 seasons
DeShaun Foster 2 seasons
Marion Barber 3 seasons
Jay Ajayi 2 seasons
Matt Forte 9 seasons
Emmitt Smith* 4 seasons
LaDainian Tomlinson* 10 seasons
Justin Fargas 2 seasons
Rudi Johnson 4 seasons
Thomas Jones 7 seasons
Ryan Mathews 2 seasons
Lamar Miller 3 seasons
DeMarco Murray 3 seasons
Adrian Peterson 8 seasons
Chris Brown 2 seasons
Ryan Grant 2 seasons
Michael Pittman 3 seasons
Ahman Green 6 seasons
Cadillac Williams 3 seasons
Domanick Williams 3 seasons
Melvin Gordon 2 seasons
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 3 seasons
Garrison Hearst 2 seasons
Travis Henry 4 seasons
Mark Ingram 3 seasons
Fred Jackson 3 seasons
Marshawn Lynch 8 seasons
Knowshon Moreno 2 seasons
RB 214 lbs or less
Edgerrin James 7 seasons
Priest Holmes 3 seasons
Frank Gore 12 seasons
Marshall Faulk* 4 seasons
Joseph Addai 3 seasons
Julius Jones 2 seasons
Curtis Martin* 6 seasons
LeSean McCoy 8 seasons
Darren McFadden 3 seasons
Rashard Mendenhall 4 seasons
Kevin Smith 2 seasons
DeAngelo Williams 4 seasons
Willie Parker 4 seasons
Reuben Droughns 3 seasons
Devonta Freeman 2 seasons
Maurice Jones-Drew 4 seasons
Clinton Portis 6 seasons
Tiki Barber 6 seasons
Reggie Bush 3 seasons
Brian Westbrook 3 seasons
Jamaal Charles 4 seasons
Ahmad Bradshaw 2 seasons
Chris Johnson 6 seasons
Ray Rice 5 seasons
C.J. Spiller 2 seasons
Charlie Garner 2 seasons
Warrick Dunn 6 seasons
While there are certainly some very good RB in the 215 lb or more group (there should be since it is 67.9% of the whole group) there are some epic RB careers from the lighter group. That is my view makes the assumption that smaller RB can't be feature RB dangerously myopic.
But to each their own.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
@Biabreakable That split right at 215 is too simplistic. It has been shown that there begins to be less success at less than 205 and even less so to the point of it being an anomaly below 195. You know I’m a big table pounder for the guys hovering between 205 and 215 but if his playing weight is 185, asking for 225-250 touches is a tall task especially in the way they’re using him. If he was used more akin to Chris Thompson or Austin Ekeler I would not have as much concern. They are driving him right up the middle though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I didn't choose the 215 cut off point. FJ did. EBF used 210 for his.
As you can see from the sample, there are barely any players under 200 lbs as you said. There is almost no reason to segregate the sample if you are going that low in weight.
I don't know how much Lindsay weighs, but he runs well between the tackles from what I have seen and he had a heavy workload in college. So I don't see why he can't do that all season, regardless of what the history might say.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I have him listed at 185lbs. It may be listed different elsewhere but that’s not just small, it’s tiny. I’m a fan, I own him, I’m starting him this week and while his history doesn’t suggest durability issues, other players around that weight have had a tough time surviving rigors of the NFL.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
His BMI is 28.8 which is 22nd percentile for the person who asked.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Sure, I don’t disagree. I keep waiting for Tyreek Hill to stop being an anomaly and that’s not happening. Hill’s just too good. Evan Silva compared Lindsay to Warrick Dunn and I think that’s the ceiling here which is pretty damn good but Dunn had his limitations as well.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Have they though?
So few light RB have even had the opportunity. Is that because they can't do it? Or is it because the coaches do not give them the chance to do it?
The coaches and scouts are not all that different from having the same perspective. So is that a self fulfilling prophecy? They don't give them opportunity? Or is there actually something to it? It hasn't been tested enough to really be sure in my view. Warrick Dunn didn't have injuries that I recall, but he did always split with Alstott anyways. They didn't ask Dunn to run dive plays and so on.
I see what Denver is doing to be similar. Use a larger RB when your goal is to punish the defense and gain yards after contact. Use your better RB when you actually want to make plays.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
Thx.
For those who've watched, the kid can play. Period.
This thread is full of hatin 3rd or 4th rd drafting freeman owners grippin. Just like the freeman thread is full of apologists.
Both will get their #s imo. More so when Booker is out of the picture
I’m with you on Hill. I passed on him in all leagues when he was on waivers due to size and of course character concern at the time.
Now I feel like I’m trying to make up for that mistake by grabbing every undersized guy I can, just in case
“C’mon Jakeem Grant and Phillip Lindsay! Daddy blew his auction budget on Leveon Bell and needs a miracle!”
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Philly doesn’t seem to mind as long as a player can play. Donnell Pumphrey didn’t survive either of his two NFL training camps despite being a complete workhorse in college.
San Diego has also used Ekeler the past two seasons and then drafted Justin Jackson. Another complete work horse in college. He was hurt in camp.
Lance Dunbar has had trouble staying healthy in each of his NFL seasons.
I think it’s a combo of a lot of things. I don’t think you’re wrong that there is a “size bias” if you will. I think that it is not common place to be <200 lbs and an NFL RB. So we’re dealing with a small sample size and bias but there is also some evidence to suggest that these backs can and do get hurt. Whether that is more so than any NFL RB, I do not know. The numbers tend to suggest it is not an ideal weight though.
Last edited by a moderator:
Football Jones
Footballguy
For the record, 215 isn't a strict standard. Of course RBs can excel less than 215 & Dalvin Cook is a good example. However, the farther you get away from 215, the more escapability traits you need.
There's a lot of dynamics going on that make D personnel faster & quicker than in years past. Smaller RBs don't have the advantage they used to have. In general, it's EXTREMELY difficult for smaller RBs to be long-term feature backs (studs) in today's NFL, but I want to be clear there can be outliers (like Cook).
Simply taking a look at the top-10 FF RBs in recent seasons gives you a good clue (very few are under 215).
There's a lot of dynamics going on that make D personnel faster & quicker than in years past. Smaller RBs don't have the advantage they used to have. In general, it's EXTREMELY difficult for smaller RBs to be long-term feature backs (studs) in today's NFL, but I want to be clear there can be outliers (like Cook).
Simply taking a look at the top-10 FF RBs in recent seasons gives you a good clue (very few are under 215).
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is understating the case when the sample of a few percent of all of the RB with 200 rushing attempts.
But the players who did included Tiki Barber (he had to split early in his career) Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice. its enough that I am interested to see what Lindsay can do.
Steve Slaton was one of the one year wonders who got injured. Jamaal Anderson was a one year wonder too and a bigger RB. Both had careers shortened by career ending injuries. How much they weighed did not seem to help Anderson.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Hmmm....
FWIW I actually agree with you about the likelihood of Freeman having a longer career based on pedigree alone, but per @JIslander's point, just pointing out that we're all victims of hyperbole and absolutism at times.
If there is one absolute her, it's that this looks like full-blown RBBC unless there is injury or one player clearly and consistently devolves.
Huh? Dalvin Cook hasn't excelled. He got hurt after less than 4 games and appears to be hurt already this season. Not a great example of a back staying healthy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I enjoyed reading that.
You lost me at 215 lbs as a threshold.
Theres a massive difference between 215 and 185.
Literally 30 lbs, but football-wise, it’s a magnitude greater.
The threshold should be more like under 200 lbs, and over 200 lbs.
All due respect for a well-made argument, but data is funny - what you put in is usually what you get out. GIGO, in this case.
i’d be willing to bet that 2nd list of epic RBs gets a lot less epic by changing g that parameter to something that doesn’t include the ideal weight for an NFL RB (between 205-215)
if you really want to make a case for “the little guy” you should make the threshold 185, which is Lindsay’s weight.
Appreciate the work you put into that, but I find your premise that 215 represents “the little guy” to be deeply flawed.
You tried to gloss over this saying “you have to cut it off somewhere”, but honestly does anyone believe 215 is a small RB? In a topic about a 185 lb RB where the most frequent comparison has been Warrick Dunn?
please do rework the data to split the lists into “below 186 lbs “ and “above 185 lbs” and let’s see who lands where.
I don’t know anyone who thinks Edge James, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber or Tomlinson or literally 75% of that list are “little” or “undersized” RBs - the type suggested as less durable. It’s instead a list of the prototypical NFL RB size/weight.one of them has the nickname “Cadillac” - pretty sure that’s not because he’s undersized?
It’s almost as though that 215 threshold skews results to prove a conclusion.
Using a threshold in line with the actual debate (Dunn, or Lindsay at 185) I’d bet the latter list above is far less “dangerously myopic”.
Last edited by a moderator:
Football Jones
Footballguy
I haven't been following this thread closely so I may have missed something, but I'm not referring to durability as it relates to smaller RBs. I'm only referring to production (or the likelihood of production).
As far as Cook, I thought he was a good example of a RB who's under 215 & has the talent to excel. Another example would be LeSean McCoy (at 210), who was the only RB in non-PPR leagues to finish in the top-10 last season (7th in the league I looked) & weigh under 215. In PPR, only McCoy & McCaffrey (205) finished in the top-10 last season (7th & 9th).
The year before there were 2 in non-PPR & 2 in PPR under 215. The trend towards the top FF RBs being bigger (or not small) has been going on for awhile now. It first caught my eye several seasons ago, but there's a definitive reason for it.
In short, you can succeed under 215, but the farther away the harder it is in today's NFL. It takes a specific high-end skill set of which very few guys possess.
Last edited by a moderator:
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Not sure how I feel about him this week. Broncos / Ravens seems like a bad matchup for everyone.
Like both defenses. Can see both teams struggling to get their offenses going.
Like both defenses. Can see both teams struggling to get their offenses going.
We already know he can produce when he's on the field. We've seen it for 2 straight weeks. The question is can he stay healthy given that many touches. That is what the last 3 pages have all been about.
this thread.
