RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (4 Viewers)

[humpback]

They certainly had a choice to not sign him, they could have signed any number of "functional NFL-level RBs", most of which would have been better for RS's outlook IMO.

They also had a choice to sign younger receiving backs and didn’t.

I disagree that a Cook or Hunt would have been better for RS outlook, and certainly not a Fournette.

I’m not sure who this plethora of other capable but lesser RB you see as available was though - last I looked at the list of FA it’s not particularly impressive outside those 3, and the Pats particularly needed a short yardage back because that’s an area RS struggled.

I certainly don’t see that on the list of FA RB.

IMO Zeke is the best back they could have brought in for RS shareholders. He’s on a 1 year deal, too.

I expect RS to be what he was last year - and hopefully with more longevity thanks to Zeke being the battering ram.

Uh, that's the whole point- if they would have brought in a "not particularly impressive" RB, that would have been better for RS. It would obviously have signaled that they feel very confident in RS handling the load.

This is what I mean- there's no way you honestly believe that signing Zeke is a best case scenario for RS. Not buying it.

He can be what he was last year for sure. Without Zeke he could've been a lot more than that. Heck, he still can be if Zeke gets hurt, finds himself in the doghouse, develops a twinkie addiction, etc.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today,

Not sure what this means.

IIRC RS was also banged up at the end of the year. Might that have contributed to his lower usage?

You're not going to like this, but there's a decent chance that his fumbles contributed to his lower usage. He coughed it up on 1st and goal from the 5 with under a minute left vs. Cincy (his 2nd fumble of the game), essentially costing them the game and crippling their playoff chances. The next (final) two games he only had 14 carries combined (and fumbled one of those) vs. 22 for Harris.

I remember that game well.

They represented half of his 4 total for the year.

I don’t think that’s a significant or serious concern.

Wait until you hear about Zeke’s 6 fumbles in 2020.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is what I mean- there's no way you honestly believe that signing Zeke is a best case scenario for RS. Not buying it.

You can buy or not whatever you like. I fully expected the Patriots to bring in a FA RB or retain Harris.

Of the options I believe Zeke is the best for RS outlook. Thanks for making me repeat myself.

 

[Boston]

Zeks signing indicative of larger issues with the Pats:

Curran: Elliott's addition highlights larger roster issue for Pats

Ezekiel Elliott should help the Patriots this season, but Tom E. Curran believes his addition is a sign that New England is in scramble mode with its current roster.

www.nbcsportsboston.com

The New England Patriots reportedly added a player Monday who could play an important role in their offense this season.

That's a win for the Patriots. But it also begs the question: Why are they in the market for key contributors with two full weeks of training camp already behind them?

While newly-signed running back Ezekiel Elliott should boost an offense that already has higher expectations under new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, our Tom E. Curran believes Elliott's signing points to the team's flawed roster construction.

"Signing Zeke Elliott is like seeing the AC repair man coming down your driveway in the middle of August," Curran said Tuesday night on NBC Sports Boston's Quick Slants. "I mean, you are psyched to see that guy because you're sweating bullets. But on the other hand, you could be a little bummed out that he has to be there in the first place. You want things to work and they didn't. And that's how I feel about Zeke Elliott."

As Curran explained, the Patriots wouldn't have needed to sign Elliott if they had better depth behind starter Rhamondre Stevenson -- and if either of their 2022 draft picks at running back, Kevin Harris or Pierre Strong, showed more promise.

"The Patriots are a team that drafted two running backs last year, that had a productive backup running back in Damien Harris," Curran continued. "And yet here they are in August after the perpetually injured Ty Montgomery got injured once again, and Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong added up to people you can't yet trust, and they have to go out and get Ezekiel Elliott.

"Again, there's a lot to like about Ezekiel Elliott and we'll get to some of the aspects of that, but they shouldn't be shopping for running backs in August."

Running back isn't the only tenuous position on the roster, either. The Patriots have shuffled their offensive line throughout training camp to account for the absences of starters like Mike Onwenu, Cole Strange and Trent Brown, while their tight end depth is being tested following Mike Gesicki's recent injury. Meanwhile, backup quarterback Bailey Zappe hasn't inspired much confidence so far this summer, opening the door for undrafted free agent and QB/wide receiver hybrid Malik Cunningham to potentially challenge for the job.

The upshot of all this? The Patriots' roster isn't exactly on stable footing entering the second week of the preseason.

"They shouldn't be sampling offensive linemen in August," Curran added. "They shouldn't be sweating bullets about tight ends in August. They shouldn't have a backup quarterback situation that has a guy who is transitioning to wide receiver (Cunningham), who in my opinion could now be threatening the backup quarterback (Zappe), who should be a heartbeat away from playing in the regular season for a playoff aspirant.

"In short, I'm seeing a Patriots team in an August scramble. Too many unanswered questions and too many question marks as you go into a season that has pivotal importance."

Check out Curran's full take in the video player above, and tune into Quick Slants every Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Boston.

 

[Anarchy99]

The Jets signed Cook on the same day NE signed Elliott. New York has an equally big problem with their OL. Rodgers said today not one of their O linemen has played well enough to earn a starting spot. Does that mean the Jets have major issues? Some folks consider them a SB contender.

We’ll find out what the evil genius is thinking, but maybe BB views Elliott more of a contributor and not just a depth piece? He’s added pieces in the off-season, training camp, and in season before that turned into big contributors.

Would Curran have painted the same picture if NE added a RB when free agency started for 3 years and $30M? Elliott could be helpful and isn’t that expensive.

To be clear, I agree that the team has holes and has some depth issues. Once that has been determined, not sure if a better strategy is to simply ignore those holes.

Still doesn’t change the vertical passing game issues. As has been discussed a lot, hard to win by just running the ball all game and throwing the ball 3 yards downfield.

 

[humpback]

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today,

Not sure what this means.

IIRC RS was also banged up at the end of the year. Might that have contributed to his lower usage?

You're not going to like this, but there's a decent chance that his fumbles contributed to his lower usage. He coughed it up on 1st and goal from the 5 with under a minute left vs. Cincy (his 2nd fumble of the game), essentially costing them the game and crippling their playoff chances. The next (final) two games he only had 14 carries combined (and fumbled one of those) vs. 22 for Harris.

I remember that game well.

They represented half of his 4 total for the year.

I don’t think that’s a significant or serious concern.

Wait until you hear about Zeke’s 6 fumbles in 2020.

2020, you mean when RS was still in college? Zeke had 1 fumble in his last 2 seasons (over 530 touches). RS has fumbled 4 times in his last 6 games (less than 80 touches), including that crippling one vs. Cincy.

I know Zeke has had issues with fumbling in the past but I wasn't even talking about him, I was just giving a very plausible (I'd say likely) reason why RS got fewer opportunities at the end of the season.

 

[Boston]

The Jets signed Cook on the same day NE signed Elliott. New York has an equally big problem with their OL. Rodgers said today not one of their O linemen has played well enough to earn a starting spot. Does that mean the Jets have major issues? Some folks consider them a SB contender.

What does this have to do with the Patriots?

 

[Anarchy99]

The Jets signed Cook on the same day NE signed Elliott. New York has an equally big problem with their OL. Rodgers said today not one of their O linemen has played well enough to earn a starting spot. Does that mean the Jets have major issues? Some folks consider them a SB contender.

What does this have to do with the Patriots?

Curran just mentioned that NE has problems because they signed a RB halfway through August and their OL hasn’t been sorted out and is a mess. His assessment was that is not where a team with playoff aspirations should be at this point.

The Jets also just signed a RB and have just as bad OL issues and have playoff aspirations. I was only highlighting that NE isn’t the only team n their division going through some of the same things.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I know Zeke has had issues with fumbling in the past but I wasn't even talking about him, I was just giving a very plausible (I'd say likely) reason why RS got fewer opportunities at the end of the season.

I would find his injury status far more plausible considering he was right back in there getting carries the nest week after he fumbled at the end of that Raiders game.

IIRC he was never benched for fumbling last year.

I find this extremely unlikely. But we can agree to disagree.

 

[humpback]

Stevenson finished RB13 in my league last year with a 1040/5 ~ 421/1 line so it’s about right, a slight ding but not a panicked reaction. Breakout predictions may be tempered now, but fully conceivable he repeats last year’s output.

Yep. I don't think anyone is saying that this is a ding off his value from last year, but it's a ding off of his value from a few days ago, which was higher than last year.

Despite what some claim, this is far from a "best case scenario" signing for RS. If it were, his value would be increasing wouldn't it?

 

[Boston]

The Jets signed Cook on the same day NE signed Elliott. New York has an equally big problem with their OL. Rodgers said today not one of their O linemen has played well enough to earn a starting spot. Does that mean the Jets have major issues? Some folks consider them a SB contender.

What does this have to do with the Patriots?

Curran just mentioned that NE has problems because they signed a RB halfway through August and their OL hasn’t been sort out and is a mess. His assessment was that is not where a team with playoff aspirations should be at this point.

The Jets also just signed a RB and have just as bad OL issues and have playoff aspirations. I was only highlighting that NE isn’t the only team n their division going through some of the same things.

OK...as you know I have been very vocal about their roster construction as the Pats issues were very apparent all offseason so the fact they are scrambling to fill holes isn't a surprise but the fact it is happening in mid-August as Curran points out makes it even more concerning.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Despite what some claim, this is far from a "best case scenario" signing for RS. If it were, his value would be increasing wouldn't it?

It’s a best case scenario of them bringing in a complimentary RB.

The best case for RS would obviously be the Pats not bringing in anyone, but with injury and underwhelming play by the backups, it isn’t very surprising that they did.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here is a snapshot of three versions of the Patriots. GROUP A: the 3 years BOB was de facto OC, GROUP B, the last 3 years of TB with McDaniels, GROUP C, the last 2 seasons. I considered adding in the Cam year, but he completely altered what they did in the backfield (essentially making that an outlier season).

GROUP A (with BOB) - 2009-2011:
Average team RB carries: 399 . . . Average team RB receptions: 57

GROUP B (with TB and McDaniels):
Average team RB carries: 419 . . . Average team RB receptions: 123

GROUP C: (with Mac and McDaniels / Patricia):
Average team RB carries: 383 . . . Average team RB receptions: 94

The average across all 8 seasons was 402 carries and 91 receptions. Also across those 8 seasons, the average number of RB touches taken up by guys other than their RB1 and RB2 was 138 touches. Last year, it was only 51 touches. Brady also used White and the RBs out of the backfield more.

Before people go crazy, the following is an analytical approximation and estimate. Let's arbitrarily project the backfield to get 402 carries and 91 receptions this year. Let's also say the OTHER RBs get 75 touches (remember, the average was 138). All of those were the team's average totals across those 8 seasons. I will also say the Stevenson / Elliott split will be 60 / 40.

Stevenson - 251 touches (210/41)
Elliott - 167 touches (150/17)
Strong - 60 touches (30/30)
Harris - 15 touches (12/3)

In this scenario, Strong and Stevenson split time as 3rd down / receiving back. That's one way to configure the workload to fit the averages that I used. Other opinions will vary.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here is a snapshot of three versions of the Patriots. GROUP A: the 3 years BOB was de facto OC, GROUP B, the last 3 years of TB with McDaniels, GROUP C, the last 2 seasons. I considered adding in the Cam year, but he completely altered what they did in the backfield (essentially making that an outlier season).

GROUP A (with BOB) - 2009-2011:
Average team RB carries: 399 . . . Average team RB receptions: 57

GROUP B (with TB and McDaniels):
Average team RB carries: 419 . . . Average team RB receptions: 123

GROUP C: (with Mac and McDaniels / Patricia):
Average team RB carries: 383 . . . Average team RB receptions: 94

The average across all 8 seasons was 402 carries and 91 receptions. Also across those 8 seasons, the average number of RB touches taken up by guys other than their RB1 and RB2 was 138 touches. Last year, it was only 51 touches. Brady also used White and the RBs out of the backfield more.

Before people go crazy, the following is an analytical approximation and estimate. Let's arbitrarily project the backfield to get 402 carries and 91 receptions this year. Let's also say the OTHER RBs get 75 touches (remember, the average was 138). All of those were the team's average totals across those 8 seasons. I will also say the Stevenson / Elliott split will be 60 / 40.

Stevenson - 251 touches (210/41)
Elliott - 167 touches (150/17)
Strong - 60 touches (30/30)
Harris - 15 touches (12/3)

In this scenario, Strong and Stevenson split time as 3rd down / receiving back. That's one way to configure the workload to fit the averages that I used. Other opinions will vary.

I see this as a very reasonable estimation, give or take.

That said, it’s worth mentioning that the rosters of those various groupings vary wildly.

Some years the Pats had better receiving TEs. Some years they had better receiving RB. Some years they had better receiving corps.

While it’s reasonable to look back at the various configurations and how they were used, it seems a bit flawed to use those to project numbers for the current Pats roster.

RS is arguably one of the Pats top receivers. It stands to reason that they might continue to utilize him as such given their lack of alternative quality options.

Time will tell.

 

[Anarchy99]

FWIW, ESPN's Mike Clay updated his NE projections . . .

Touches:
RS 194 + 49 = 243 (Fantasy RB15)
EE 138 + 16 = 154 (RB47)
TM 13 + 21 = 34
KH 20 + 4 = 24
PS 8 + 4 = 12
Total: 373 + 94 = 467

 

[Dr. Octopus]

RS 194 + 49 = 243 (Fantasy RB15)

I’m on board with this. RB15 puts him in Round 3. I’d consider him there.

 

[humpback]

I know Zeke has had issues with fumbling in the past but I wasn't even talking about him, I was just giving a very plausible (I'd say likely) reason why RS got fewer opportunities at the end of the season.

I would find his injury status far more plausible considering he was right back in there getting carries the nest week after he fumbled at the end of that Raiders game.

IIRC he was never benched for fumbling last year.

I find this extremely unlikely. But we can agree to disagree.

He didn't fumble at the end of the Raiders game. Thanks for the reminder though, he did have that boneheaded lateral at the end of that game as well.

The injury excuse doesn't really hold water IMO- he was injured the week before the aforementioned Raiders game, which he played in and went on to have his best game of the season and 19 carries. He was also okay (physically) the following week against Cincy, getting 13 of the 15 RB rushing attempts, and then fumbled at the end of the game (for the 2nd time). The next two weeks his rushing attempts plummeted and he took a backseat to Harris, with Harris starting the must-win final game of the season. I certainly think it's more plausible that the fumbles played a role than he recovered from his injury just fine for 2 weeks but then it all of the sudden greatly limited him (despite not even being on the injury report at all the last game).

Despite what some claim, this is far from a "best case scenario" signing for RS. If it were, his value would be increasing wouldn't it?

It’s a best case scenario of them bringing in a complimentary RB.

The best case for RS would obviously be the Pats not bringing in anyone, but with injury and underwhelming play by the backups, it isn’t very surprising that they did.

Yes, the best case would obviously be them not bringing in anyone. The next best would have been if they had signed any of the several RBs who aren't as good as Zeke, particularly in the valuable red zone and pass pro areas. No, not very surprising that they brought someone in, but the someone that they brought in does ding his value a bit, which isn't best case scenario.

 

[Ilov80s]

RS 194 + 49 = 243 (Fantasy RB15)

I’m on board with this. RB15 puts him in Round 3. I’d consider him there.

For sure, seems like the right spot for him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

he did have that boneheaded lateral at the end of that game as well.

That’s what i was referring to

 

[cockroach]

Zeke sort of just seems like the kind of guy to have a nice "Indian Summer" in his career. I wouldn't be surprised if his work habits fell off with the familiarity in Dallas.

 

[travdogg]

he did have that boneheaded lateral at the end of that game as well.

That’s what i was referring to

Stevenson's lateral was fine, it was Meyers that was boneheaded.

Already seeing a bit of a drop in ADP, he went RB10 to RB15 in some spots. I'm very much on team, buy the dip.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

he did have that boneheaded lateral at the end of that game as well.

That’s what i was referring to

Stevenson's lateral was fine, it was Meyers that was boneheaded.

Already seeing a bit of a drop in ADP, he went RB10 to RB15 in some spots. I'm very much on team, buy the dip.

100%

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just did a NFC $350 draft.

He went 3.01 (3RR) so 25th overall.

He was going mid-second before the Zeke signing IIRC

 

[fuzzy_dunlop]

I think they will trade series with RS getting the 2 min drill.

 

[humpback]

he did have that boneheaded lateral at the end of that game as well.

That’s what i was referring to

Stevenson's lateral was fine, it was Meyers that was boneheaded.

Already seeing a bit of a drop in ADP, he went RB10 to RB15 in some spots. I'm very much on team, buy the dip.

I didn't bring the play up, but while Meyers' decision was certainly worse, Stevenson's lateral was not fine- it was an unscripted bad decision with a very poor r/r. To his credit, he took full responsibility, much more than was warranted IMO.

 

[markrc99]

I’m betting it’s 70/30 with Zeke used almost exclusively in short yardage. Because he’s incapable of anything else.
I also expect a lot of 2-RB sets with Zeke in to protect & RS as a receiver out of the backfield, or used on toss sweeps/stretch plays.

I agree that Zeke isn't the player he was. But the player you're describing, they already have in Kevin Harris. There's the old adage; 'backs that can exploit open holes are a dime a dozen. Zeke certainly falls within that category. Take the grind off his table, roll with this 70-30 split & by the time November rolls around you could witness a rejuvenated Elliott. The player you might want to consider as a comparable is Tevin Coleman. Wherever he was, asked to carry the team. Then Kyle Shanahan came along who knew exactly how to manage this overworked 'back. In Atlanta then even in SF, weeks would go by & out of nowhere he'd get 20 quality touches from Coleman. Should Zeke get rested up while defenses wear down a bit, look out! No, he probably can't give them 250 carries, but half of that, especially in the latter portion of the season?

 

[Biabreakable]

Zeke signing just means Stevenson is more likely to fall to me, maybe he'll make it to round 4?

I hate using the term washed, more often than not, when people use it, they just mean not as good as they once were. With that said, I think Zeke is washed. He can do goal line and pass blocking (when not playing Center) and he's a liability everywhere else. If NE had to add a RB, Zeke is the least threating one, less than Cook, less than Hunt, less than Fournette, and less threatening than keeping Harris would have been.

I'm still taking Stevenson over guys like Najee, Gibbs, and A. Jones. Maybe this knocks him below Breece Hall (assuming they don't also add a veteran RB) but I'm not seeing a big hit here at all.

i was just coming to post something similar. The more I think about it the more I like it.

RS could be a 100 reception RB this year. (Could - not a prediction or a flag)

Thats a lot of breakfast sandwiches.

 

[Chaka]

How many backfields had a full 70:30 split last year?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m betting it’s 70/30 with Zeke used almost exclusively in short yardage. Because he’s incapable of anything else.
I also expect a lot of 2-RB sets with Zeke in to protect & RS as a receiver out of the backfield, or used on toss sweeps/stretch plays.

I agree that Zeke isn't the player he was. But the player you're describing, they already have in Kevin Harris. There's the old adage; 'backs that can exploit open holes are a dime a dozen. Zeke certainly falls within that category. Take the grind off his table, roll with this 70-30 split & by the time November rolls around you could witness a rejuvenated Elliott. The player you might want to consider as a comparable is Tevin Coleman. Wherever he was, asked to carry the team. Then Kyle Shanahan came along who knew exactly how to manage this overworked 'back. In Atlanta then even in SF, weeks would go by & out of nowhere he'd get 20 quality touches from Coleman. Should Zeke get rested up while defenses wear down a bit, look out! No, he probably can't give them 250 carries, but half of that, especially in the latter portion of the season?

Greater than zero chance, but I’m skeptical.

IMO there’s a greater chance of ineffectiveness or injury than dominance from Zeke.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Thats a lot of breakfast sandwiches.

That was the greatest on pace for reference in the history of this forum.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

IMO there’s a greater chance of ineffectiveness or injury than dominance from Zeke.

He's been on of the most durable backs in the league. There's three areas where Zeke is still elite:

1. availability
2. short yardage
3. pass blocking

 

[Anarchy99]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

 

[Lansdowne]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

Along with all the other variables you mentioned don’t forget they also had the greatest offensive line coach of all-time (Dante Scarnecchia) coaching up that run blocking line. An interesting thing I noticed about Zeke is his rushing YPG has declined each year since entering the league but it wasn’t dramatic until the 2020 season. If that trend continues hopefully it has more to do with his share of reps and less to do with his YPC.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IMO there’s a greater chance of ineffectiveness or injury than dominance from Zeke.

He's been on of the most durable backs in the league. There's three areas where Zeke is still elite:

1. availability
2. short yardage
3. pass blocking

I agree, but another year older, no guarantee of health.

No player is guaranteed health of course.

 

[Anarchy99]

Depending on how individual drafts went, I probably would have more interest value wise in Elliott at RB51/143 overall (his current ADP on FantasyPros) than Stevenson at RB9/24 overall. (Stevenson will probably drop off some and Zeke will move up a little now that he has a home.)

I know EE has been trending in the wrong direction over his career and has a fair amount of mileage, but last year was his worst fantasy season (RB17). In 2022, James Robinson was the #51 RB with 476 YFS and 5 TD. That's not exactly a high bar to beat. Elliott should have value as a RB3 / flex play and would probably be an ok RB2 if Stevenson was dinged up.

On the flip side, Stevenson is probably a strong fantasy RB2 and could be a very good RB1 if Elliott was out.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

The bolded lede seems to get buried by your if/then statement here.

 

[Anarchy99]

No player is guaranteed health of course.

I seem to remember when Stevenson first went to camp as a rookie in NE, some questioned his work ethic and physical conditioning. He may even have failed his first conditioning test. Last training camp, BB pointed out that Rhamondre matured and improved a lot since his first camp, but part of me things they may have some concerns about his ability to take a pounding and stay in the lineup. I seem to remember a post-game presser after Stephenson tweaked an ankle last year, and Bill seemed extra peeved about it. He was likely more annoyed at the press for asking him about an injury (which he'll never answer), but one of Harris or Stephenson seemed to be out pretty regularly last year . . . which probably played a role in them wanting Elliott as a reliable and available option from week to week.

 

[Boston]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

Along with all the other variables you mentioned don’t forget they also had the greatest offensive line coach of all-time (Dante Scarnecchia) coaching up that run blocking line. An interesting thing I noticed about Zeke is his rushing YPG has declined each year since entering the league but it wasn’t dramatic until the 2020 season. If that trend continues hopefully it has more to do with his share of reps and less to do with his YPC.

When you look at the Pats roster construction I often wonder if BB thinks TB12 and Dante are still there.

 

[Boston]

No player is guaranteed health of course.

I seem to remember when Stevenson first went to camp as a rookie in NE, some questioned his work ethic and physical conditioning. He may even have failed his first conditioning test. Last training camp, BB pointed out that Rhamondre matured and improved a lot since his first camp, but part of me things they may have some concerns about his ability to take a pounding and stay in the lineup. I seem to remember a post-game presser after Stephenson tweaked an ankle last year, and Bill seemed extra peeved about it. He was likely more annoyed at the press for asking him about an injury (which he'll never answer), but one of Harris or Stephenson seemed to be out pretty regularly last year . . . which probably played a role in them wanting Elliott as a reliable and available option from week to week.

They signed Zeke in August because they had no depth…Zeke does bring those qualities but this was not part of some plan…it was out of desperation.

 

[-jb-]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

Along with all the other variables you mentioned don’t forget they also had the greatest offensive line coach of all-time (Dante Scarnecchia) coaching up that run blocking line. An interesting thing I noticed about Zeke is his rushing YPG has declined each year since entering the league but it wasn’t dramatic until the 2020 season. If that trend continues hopefully it has more to do with his share of reps and less to do with his YPC.

When you look at the Pats roster construction I often wonder if BB thinks TB12 and Dante are still there.

I think you're correct, but with different framing. I think he still believes that the dynasty era was ALL him, so what worked then should work now. I staunchly, enthusiastically, and vehemently disagree. For many reasons.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think you're correct, but with different framing. I think he still believes that the dynasty era was ALL him, so what worked then should work now. I staunchly, enthusiastically, and vehemently disagree. For many reasons.

I mostly agree with this, but I think Bill thinks that he could win with a competent QB that protects the ball and takes to coaching. Since Brady left, Stidham, Newton, Jones, and Zappe haven't been able to provide that. I don't think he's wrong . . . the qualities he seeks in a QB are the same that all teams seek . . . it hasn't sunk in yet that he can't take any JAG QB and turn him into TB12. IMO, the best Mac could evolve into would be somewhere between Andy Dalton and Derek Carr. Barring the defense turning into the 2000 Ravens, I don't think having that type of QB will get them far. Even then, I am not sure a generational defense could be able to carry a team week in and week out, as there would be games when the defense still allowed 20+ points to good offenses. I hope I am wrong about Jones, but we probably won't see NE load up on offensive players to see if he could put up way better numbers.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No player is guaranteed health of course.

I seem to remember when Stevenson first went to camp as a rookie in NE, some questioned his work ethic and physical conditioning. He may even have failed his first conditioning test. Last training camp, BB pointed out that Rhamondre matured and improved a lot since his first camp, but part of me things they may have some concerns about his ability to take a pounding and stay in the lineup. I seem to remember a post-game presser after Stephenson tweaked an ankle last year, and Bill seemed extra peeved about it. He was likely more annoyed at the press for asking him about an injury (which he'll never answer), but one of Harris or Stephenson seemed to be out pretty regularly last year . . . which probably played a role in them wanting Elliott as a reliable and available option from week to week.

That’s some grade A whataboutism right there.

My only point is that Zeke is an older player. I didn’t speak to Stevenson at all in my comment. Not sure why you would.

Is Stevenson’s conditioning still an issue? Funny, I haven’t read or heard of any concerns of that since his rookie camp. And if not, why mention it here?

 

[Boston]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

Along with all the other variables you mentioned don’t forget they also had the greatest offensive line coach of all-time (Dante Scarnecchia) coaching up that run blocking line. An interesting thing I noticed about Zeke is his rushing YPG has declined each year since entering the league but it wasn’t dramatic until the 2020 season. If that trend continues hopefully it has more to do with his share of reps and less to do with his YPC.

When you look at the Pats roster construction I often wonder if BB thinks TB12 and Dante are still there.

I think you're correct, but with different framing. I think he still believes that the dynasty era was ALL him, so what worked then should work now. I staunchly, enthusiastically, and vehemently disagree. For many reasons.

Unfortunately I agree 100%…I will always go to bat for him as the greatest of all time but the post-Brady era is going nowhere due to his reluctance to change which is so disappointing.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but I think Bill thinks

Due respect, but historically it’s been a fool’s errand to try to get into BB’s head. Anyone claiming they know what BB thinks is writing fiction.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

Along with all the other variables you mentioned don’t forget they also had the greatest offensive line coach of all-time (Dante Scarnecchia) coaching up that run blocking line. An interesting thing I noticed about Zeke is his rushing YPG has declined each year since entering the league but it wasn’t dramatic until the 2020 season. If that trend continues hopefully it has more to do with his share of reps and less to do with his YPC.

When you look at the Pats roster construction I often wonder if BB thinks TB12 and Dante are still there.

I think you're correct, but with different framing. I think he still believes that the dynasty era was ALL him, so what worked then should work now. I staunchly, enthusiastically, and vehemently disagree. For many reasons.

Unfortunately I agree 100%…I will always go to bat for him as the greatest of all time but the post-Brady era is going nowhere due to his reluctance to change which is so disappointing.

It’s an oddly constructed roster. Last year’s truly bizarre OC appointment would have been career ending for anyone not named BB.

 

[zoonation]

I think you're correct, but with different framing. I think he still believes that the dynasty era was ALL him, so what worked then should work now. I staunchly, enthusiastically, and vehemently disagree. For many reasons.

I mostly agree with this, but I think Bill thinks that he could win with a competent QB that protects the ball and takes to coaching. Since Brady left, Stidham, Newton, Jones, and Zappe haven't been able to provide that. I don't think he's wrong . . . the qualities he seeks in a QB are the same that all teams seek . . . it hasn't sunk in yet that he can't take any JAG QB and turn him into TB12. IMO, the best Mac could evolve into would be somewhere between Andy Dalton and Derek Carr. Barring the defense turning into the 2000 Ravens, I don't think having that type of QB will get them far. Even then, I am not sure a generational defense could be able to carry a team week in and week out, as there would be games when the defense still allowed 20+ points to good offenses. I hope I am wrong about Jones, but we probably won't see NE load up on offensive players to see if he could put up way better numbers.

yep. especially not with Pat Mahomes in the league.

 

[Anarchy99]

It’s an oddly constructed roster. Last year’s truly bizarre OC appointment would have been career ending for anyone not named BB.

It has been discussed a lot locally why they did what they did, and some of the beat guys concluded that they wanted BOB all along but he was under contract with Saban in Alabama. BB did not want to make waves but still wanted BOB. All along in NE, BB has only wanted things to go his way and with his guys. After McDaniels left and took a lot of Bill's staff with him, no other NE alumni was available for them to bring in, so he tried a season with Twiddle Dum and Twiddle Dee running the offense. Bill has shown no interest in bringing in a coordinator that runs a different system, so last year was a bridge until they got BOB back. To Bill, there was no point in bringing in an outside guy to have to learn everything that NE runs for only a year and pivot to O'Brien.

 

[Boston]

Admittedly this isn't really all that relevant or scientific . . . different players, different OL's, different OC's, no Tom Brady now, etc. But when NE brought in veteran backs in the past:

Change in YPC from final season on old team to first season in NE:

ASmith 3.5 --> 4.0
CDillon 3.9 --> 4.7
SMorris 4.3 --> 4.5
LJordan 3.6 --> 4.5
FTaylor 3.9 --> 4.3
LBlount 3.7 --> 5.0
EElliott 3.8 --> ???

Those other backs average 3.85 and then improved to 4.5. If Elliott can accomplish the same think (again, not saying he will or stands a good chance to), then he becomes a more viable and reliable option to carry the ball and could merit a bigger workload. Clearly BB thinks he can still play. Similarly, I think if EE does very little, he won't play very much (and NE could look for another back from somewhere).

Along with all the other variables you mentioned don’t forget they also had the greatest offensive line coach of all-time (Dante Scarnecchia) coaching up that run blocking line. An interesting thing I noticed about Zeke is his rushing YPG has declined each year since entering the league but it wasn’t dramatic until the 2020 season. If that trend continues hopefully it has more to do with his share of reps and less to do with his YPC.

When you look at the Pats roster construction I often wonder if BB thinks TB12 and Dante are still there.

I think you're correct, but with different framing. I think he still believes that the dynasty era was ALL him, so what worked then should work now. I staunchly, enthusiastically, and vehemently disagree. For many reasons.

Unfortunately I agree 100%…I will always go to bat for him as the greatest of all time but the post-Brady era is going nowhere due to his reluctance to change which is so disappointing.

It’s an oddly constructed roster. Last year’s truly bizarre OC appointment would have been career ending for anyone not named BB.

Not to take it on a tangent but what makes no sense is how obvious it is…here you have the greatest mind in NFL history and he thinks having Patricia be the OC with a developing QB is a good idea or having a roster with a beyond shaky tackle situation or going to a two TE offense with no viable third TE on the roster or loading up with special teamers when that part of the game is being deemphasized…BB has always zigged when others zagged and in so many cases he was ahead of everyone else but right now he is trying to make 2+2=5…to paraphrase Rick Pitino (the locals will understand this one)…Tom Brady is not walking thru that door.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s an oddly constructed roster. Last year’s truly bizarre OC appointment would have been career ending for anyone not named BB.

It has been discussed a lot locally why they did what they did, and some of the beat guys concluded that they wanted BOB all along but he was under contract with Saban in Alabama. BB did not want to make waves but still wanted BOB. All along in NE, BB has only wanted things to go his way and with his guys. After McDaniels left and took a lot of Bill's staff with him, no other NE alumni was available for them to bring in, so he tried a season with Twiddle Dum and Twiddle Dee running the offense. Bill has shown no interest in bringing in a coordinator that runs a different system, so last year was a bridge until they got BOB back. To Bill, there was no point in bringing in an outside guy to have to learn everything that NE runs for only a year and pivot to O'Brien.

Honestly if that’s true, that should have been enough for Kraft to move on from BB.

Sabotaging a season is a bad plan regardless of the reason.

Anyway, back to the RS topic…

 

[menobrown]

It’s an oddly constructed roster. Last year’s truly bizarre OC appointment would have been career ending for anyone not named BB.

It has been discussed a lot locally why they did what they did, and some of the beat guys concluded that they wanted BOB all along but he was under contract with Saban in Alabama. BB did not want to make waves but still wanted BOB. All along in NE, BB has only wanted things to go his way and with his guys. After McDaniels left and took a lot of Bill's staff with him, no other NE alumni was available for them to bring in, so he tried a season with Twiddle Dum and Twiddle Dee running the offense. Bill has shown no interest in bringing in a coordinator that runs a different system, so last year was a bridge until they got BOB back. To Bill, there was no point in bringing in an outside guy to have to learn everything that NE runs for only a year and pivot to O'Brien.

Honestly if that’s true, that should have been enough for Kraft to move on from BB.

Sabotaging a season is a bad plan regardless of the reason.

Anyway, back to the RS topic…

Agree. If that's how BB was thinking that runs the gamut from coaching malpractice to selfishness.