NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters
Stevenson
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RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter IHEARTFF
- Start date
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TapRackBang
Footballguy
I heard a stat the other day.
I may get some of the facts slightly incorrect; so bear with me.
The Patriots have ranked in the top 5 teams that run the ball inside the 5 yard line, for the last 18 years.
Whoever gets the GL carries is $$. It's just figuring out who that guy is. Me? I'm hoping RS is the next Legarette Blount.
I may get some of the facts slightly incorrect; so bear with me.
The Patriots have ranked in the top 5 teams that run the ball inside the 5 yard line, for the last 18 years.
Whoever gets the GL carries is $$. It's just figuring out who that guy is. Me? I'm hoping RS is the next Legarette Blount.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
What you heard is likely a true statement, but NE has had only 1 RB with more than 10 TD in a season over the past 15 seasons. The year Blount scored so many TD is all the other RB got dinged. I doubt Harris scores as many times as last year. And if Harris is healthy, I doubt Stevenson gets enough red zone touches to get that many.
Lost in some of this is the huge majority of those years they had great defenses, they were usually ahead, and they had Tom Brady. This season, they may not have a good defense, they may be losing a lot more, they so far aren't having much luck running the ball, and they don't have Brady. So far in camp, they haven't run the ball into the end zone in the red zone, and they have been passing there a lot more. Who knows if that carries over into the regular season. They could also do what they did one season with James White but with Montgomery instead (White scored a bunch both running and receiving the ball inside the 5-yard line).
TapRackBang
Footballguy
Not to nitpick, but that's not true. Damien Harris had 15 last year, and Blount had 18 I think back in 2016.
I agree with some of your sentiment, but Harris did it last year with a Rookie QB.
BB still knows how to play football and that's by running it, controlling the clock and playing defense.
Banger
Footballguy
but if Stevenson is the primary receiving back he'll likely get a ton of work catching out of the backfield if they're in catch up mode.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Sorry, I typed it wrong. I meant to say NE has only had one back get a second season scoring 10 TD once in the past 15 years. They usually have someone have a big scoring season and then that guy sees a huge fall off in TD.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The best we can tell so far is what they are doing in training camp. I haven't seen an updated list, but as of a few days ago, Harris had the most receptions of any RB in camp. And Montgomery was being used in passing situations and in the two-minute offense with the starters. RS has also seen a lot of receiving work, but that has been alternating with the first team offense and the second unit. Maybe he will see more snaps as the season progresses, but for now he appears to be third in line for receptions / targets for RB.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Man @ratbast thats a tough one. I have been looking to get Pierce everywhere as a bench stash......but apparently he looked so good tonight we are going to have to pony up in drafts.
I will admit though, I really liked Stevenson last year when I saw him run. Admittedly I didn't see that much of him, but he reminded me of that CHRIS IVORY big boy violent running style.
Ivory was fun to watch at times.
I'm not sure on the Damien Harris contract situation, but I know in Pierce's case he only has to compete with Marlon Mack.
If Harris is gone next year (wasn't there even some speculation Harris would be traded before the season started???) then Stevenson will be expensive next season, if he's healthy and has a good year this year.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Stevenson was a rookie last year, was he not?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He was an older rookie - which is what I think he was going for.
I mean I guess but only like 1 year older. Every 2nd year player is 22-25 depending on number of yrs in college and if they've had a bday yet or not this year, so Rhamondre turning 24 this year wouldn't really be old for a 2nd year guy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Generally RBs leave school early - Stevens was old for a rookie RB. I don't mark him down or anything, but there's really no debate that being 23 (and since his birthday is in February closer to 24) as a rookie RB is not the norm.
Ah, you put your two statements in separate posts, had no clue you were comparing him to Pierce when you said "older" as you only talked about Harris and Rhamondre in that post.
apparently he was only comparing him to pierce and which one he should take when he said Rhamondre was older.
I mean, Rhamondre only played 2 years of college football didn't he?
And the NFL requires that players be 3 years out of high school before entering the draft anyways.
EDIT: Looks like he played 4 years total of college, where other players only played 3.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
So many folks huddled up in here this morning, I thought some major news was breaking like Stevenson was moved up on the depth chart and leap frogged Harris.
@Anarchy99 has been pretty informative on the New England running back situation. I wouldn't ask him to repost it all but he had a nice entry in the RB thread, you might want to read that when you are making redraft choices for '22.
@Anarchy99 has been pretty informative on the New England running back situation. I wouldn't ask him to repost it all but he had a nice entry in the RB thread, you might want to read that when you are making redraft choices for '22.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Nope. We are just talking about how old the dudes we are attracted to are.
Yes Spiller turns 22 this year though and is a rookie.
Stevenson is only 1 year (at most) older than other 2nd year players.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You know 1 year at RB is like 3 at QB and WR
So you'd fade a guy in your keeper league rankings who just turned 24?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
No, I'd lighten up because it was meant humorously even if you didn't take it that way
There is a trend with younger RBs but many folks were discussing the 26/27 age line the other day, I hadn't heard about the 22/23/24 debate.
I understand your point
What do you mean by 1A?
Is it Dynasty? How many do you keep?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
RBs are like old time marriage ages for women. 25 and you're an old maid.
I think the early birthday seems to be skewing people's opinion of his age. Again, he's ONE year older than any other 2nd year RB.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
To add a little context from the other thread, the Age 27 stuff is mostly an invented conclusion based on recent trend analysis and a short sample size. Going back 20 years, here were the number of Top 10 RB (1 PPR) based on total points scored each season that were 27 or older:No, I'd lighten up because it was meant humorously even if you didn't take it that way
There is a trend with younger RBs but many folks were discussing the 26/27 age line the other day, I hadn't heard about the 22/23/24 debate.
I understand your point
2021 - 1
2020 - 0
2019 - 0
2018 - 1
2017 - 2
2016 - 3
2015 - 5
2014 - 5
2013 - 6
2012 - 2
2011 - 3
2010 - 0
2009 - 3
2008 - 4
2007 - 4
2006 - 5
2005 - 5
2004 - 4
2003 - 2
2002 - 4
Unpacking that a little bit more, the simplest explanation is that several older backs aged out or got dinged up some, and the young guys that took over are still under 27. I don't think we can extrapolate the outcomes over the years and conclude a 27-year-old running back is toast. The age that people have always suggested as the potential fall off is Age 30. Guys that play much beyond that with a heavy workload still are generally HOF caliber running backs.
There are several other factors to consider. The first one is the game has continued to morph into more of a higher scoring, more pass heavy league with less emphasize on running the football. Second, RBBC has become much more of a thing these days and teams frequently have situational specialists (early down back, change of pace back, short yardage back, third down / receiving back). The concept of the "every down back" still exists, but there aren't many of them these days. And lastly, a lot of teams have opted to better spend their cap dollars on other more valuable positions. Successful, high carry RBs that make it to free agency will often want more money than teams will want to spend. Just look at the disparity in pay between RB and WR nowadays. Apparently, a receiving yard can be worth 2-3 times as much as a rushing yard (unless that receiving yard came from a RB).
We'll see what happens in the next few seasons as the current crop of RBs get older. But I doubt the wheels are going to fall off of Ekeler this season after going 1560/20 last year just because he turned 27.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Isn't that the way it works? The earlier your birthday the older you are? You seem so hung up on a simple blow off statement and since you don't play dynasty you're not grasping the concept of an "old" rookie.
Yes but people are focused on the number, when in fact, he played 1 extra year of college than the earliest he was allowed out.
The guy is in a keep 5 league, not dynasty.... that doesn't move the needle.
floods
Footballguy
I only roster high schoolers at this point.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Skylar Thompson Rookie QB is already 25 years old and has looked great thus far. I thought it was interesting that he was already 25 yrs old. It might be one of the reasons he looks so good in camp. He's definitely an older rookie.
Almost went somewhere I shouldn't have with this.
It happens with QB's a decent amount of the time. Who was that Browns rookie QB back in the day who was like 35 his rookie year again? haha
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'd love to know where he was going in dynasty drafts.
haha the '35' was tongue in cheek. I believe it was Brandon Weeden and he was 28 when they took him. Oldest player ever drafted in round 1.
Zow
Footballguy
Yep. I think he was even older than Weinke.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, total workload is probably a bigger risk factor than age when it comes to RB. And by total, I mean pretty much since HS forward. I know HS school totals are few and far between (and generally hard to come by), but I happen to think the more a guy sees the football, the more likely he is to wear down (and get injured) across his career. Yeah, I get it, a guy can get a catastrophic injury on Carry 1 or Carry 2,000, but some of the data over the years has suggested that heavy workload guys tend to get hurt more after seasons where they were fed the ball.
Let's take Stevenson, Etienne, Najee Harris, and Jonathan Taylor as examples.
- Stevenson played two years in junior college before transferring to Oklahoma. In his combined four years of college, he got 455 carries. He had 133 carries in the regular season and 8 in the playoffs with NE last season. That gets him to 596 carries entering his Age 24 season.
- Etienne had 686 carries at Clemson and had a red shirt rookie season in the NFL. But he still had 686 carries and is entering his Age 23 season.
- Harris had 638 carries at Alabama and 307 carries (+12 in playoffs) as a rookie with PIT. That gets him to 957 carries as he heads into his Age 24 season.
- Taylor had 926 rushing attempts at Wisconsin. He's had 585 carries in his 2 years with IND (regular season and playoffs). That gets him to 1,511 carries. He's heading into his Age 23 season.
Even though Taylor is younger, he's taken the most wear and tear on his body. Even though Stevenson is older, his body has taken the least amount of hits. So IMO, I would categorize him as having more potential tread on the tire left with almost a 1,000 fewer carries than Taylor has had to date. (To be clear, I am not saying RS is better than JT, only that RS is a "young" 24 and JT is an "old" 23. Stevenson, while the same age as Harris, is a full season behind Harris in terms of total carry workload (350 carries).
So IMO, not all RB ages are the same.
Let's take Stevenson, Etienne, Najee Harris, and Jonathan Taylor as examples.
- Stevenson played two years in junior college before transferring to Oklahoma. In his combined four years of college, he got 455 carries. He had 133 carries in the regular season and 8 in the playoffs with NE last season. That gets him to 596 carries entering his Age 24 season.
- Etienne had 686 carries at Clemson and had a red shirt rookie season in the NFL. But he still had 686 carries and is entering his Age 23 season.
- Harris had 638 carries at Alabama and 307 carries (+12 in playoffs) as a rookie with PIT. That gets him to 957 carries as he heads into his Age 24 season.
- Taylor had 926 rushing attempts at Wisconsin. He's had 585 carries in his 2 years with IND (regular season and playoffs). That gets him to 1,511 carries. He's heading into his Age 23 season.
Even though Taylor is younger, he's taken the most wear and tear on his body. Even though Stevenson is older, his body has taken the least amount of hits. So IMO, I would categorize him as having more potential tread on the tire left with almost a 1,000 fewer carries than Taylor has had to date. (To be clear, I am not saying RS is better than JT, only that RS is a "young" 24 and JT is an "old" 23. Stevenson, while the same age as Harris, is a full season behind Harris in terms of total carry workload (350 carries).
So IMO, not all RB ages are the same.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
True. Even an old workhorse like Henry only had heavy touches in his last year of college, and then relatively light carry years in his first 2 years as a pro.
Derrick Henry College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
Derrick Henry - Alabama (RB)
www.sports-reference.com
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