RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (3 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

, I believe the split will be way closer to 50/50 than people are projecting.

I absolutely do not.

If the Patriots hate winning, they can go with that obviously ridiculous approach.

Or maybe they’re enamored with Zeke’s 2 YPC he had over the last what, 4 games with Dallas?

50/50 sounds preposterous to me, but to each their own I guess.

 

[Anarchy99]

, I believe the split will be way closer to 50/50 than people are projecting.

I absolutely do not.

If the Patriots hate winning, they can go with that obviously ridiculous approach.

Or maybe they’re enamored with Zeke’s 2 YPC he had over the last what, 4 games with Dallas?

50/50 sounds preposterous to me, but to each their own I guess.

I am providing perspective based on how BB's handled his RBs for 20 years. Sure, he had one season when Dillon was a bell cow. Blount had a heavy usage season when the rest of the backs were hurt. He hasn't given a huge workload to a back by design in almost 20 years. To be clear, I said CLOSER to 50/50 . . . not exactly 50/50. With Harris banged up so much last year, the split between RS and DH was 70/30. IMO, it could be 60/40 between RS and EE this year. I spelled out all the prior RB workload% numbers months ago. I don't see BB turning RS into Josh Jacobs.

 

[Anarchy99]

From a Mike Giardi article where he predicts the Pats 53 man roster:

Running Back (3): Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott and Pierre Strong

Out: Kevin Harris, Montgomery, C.J. Marable

- Zeke ends up as Stevenson’s primary backup. Stevenson will end up with just about as many targets as he had last year and stays on the field as your passing down back. Why? Because Montgomery is never healthy and counting on him is officially foolish in my book. Harris ends up on the practice squad, even though I think he's a better player than Strong right now.

This is a repeat of last year for Harris and JJ Taylor. They both were cut and resigned to the practice squad, then were sporadically called up as needed. They could also cut and resign Montgomery again if he ever got healthy.

As for RS and targets, I posted earlier that BOB's offense has not used RBs out of the backfield much (nor did he in his first stint with the team). I think Stevenson was the benefactor from a woefully over-matched Matt Patricia having no clue how to call plays.

IF the OL is an issue (and we have no reason to think things will get better overnight), I see plenty of dump-offs to JJSS, Douglas, and the tight ends. I think BOB will have a plan of attack for short, quick passes to those guys and will rely less on RS. But that's just how I read the tea leaves.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

, I believe the split will be way closer to 50/50 than people are projecting.

I absolutely do not.

If the Patriots hate winning, they can go with that obviously ridiculous approach.

Or maybe they’re enamored with Zeke’s 2 YPC he had over the last what, 4 games with Dallas?

50/50 sounds preposterous to me, but to each their own I guess.

I am providing perspective based on how BB's handled his RBs for 20 years. Sure, he had one season when Dillon was a bell cow. Blount had a heavy usage season when the rest of the backs were hurt. He hasn't given a huge workload to a back by design in almost 20 years. To be clear, I said CLOSER to 50/50 . . . not exactly 50/50. With Harris banged up so much last year, the split between RS and DH was 70/30. IMO, it could be 60/40 between RS and EE this year. I spelled out all the prior RB workload% numbers months ago. I don't see BB turning RS into Josh Jacobs.

I’m betting it’s 70/30 with Zeke used almost exclusively in short yardage. Because he’s incapable of anything else.

I also expect a lot of 2-RB sets with Zeke in to protect & RS as a receiver out of the backfield, or used on toss sweeps/stretch plays.

So maybe Zeke is on the field ~half the time, but I don’t expect anywhere near half the touches.

ETA: Gesecki’s shoulder separation probably makes the above more likely.

 

[Boston]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we can considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

great point
buy low if you think that if its possible

 

[pinkstapler]

Much like the Pollard thread, I'm confused on where people are seeing these drop offs. RS was not getting a huge workload last year in rushing attempts OR inside the RZ. He was under 60% of the rushing share already, and only received about 50% of the rushing touches inside the RZ. He scored on 10% of those touches, which is a solid number especially considering that offense and the line. So based on that and watching every Pats game, I'd disagree that this is a weakness in his game. Will Zeke get RZ touches and rushing work, for sure. But he can get 40% of the rushing touches and 50% of the RZ work without Rhamondre losing ANYTHING from last season.

And comparing what Zeke did last year behind the Cowboys line to what RS did behind the Pats line (and in that horrible excuse for an offense).... that's not apples and oranges. That's like apples and zebras. Same thing for that twitter post looking at 3rd down efficiency. Did it even take into account 3rd down situation? Doubtful, and bringing that into perspective it's understandable Zeke hade a high conversion rate on his 3rd and 2's while RS had a lower conversion rate on his 3rd and 10s lol.

I also must have missed all the great receiving options NE added to their offense in the draft and FA that's going to make RS receiving numbers get chopped in half. Unless all those people hating on JuJu for the past few seasons are going to spin him into a savior to fit their argument in this thread lol.

Already addressed the "well BB in the past...." arguments ad nauseum already in this thread. Agree to disagree on all of them.

Considering who the Patriots had behind RS, it doesn't surprise me in the least they added to this back field. The fact they added a RB who appears to have fallen off the cliff last season behind a solid offensive line, and has little to nothing to add to the receiving game, is a great win in my book. As I see it, now instead of 45% of the rushing touches split between 2-3 back ups, most will go to Zeke. Same for the 50% of the RZ touches. Most RS people weren't drafting him highly on the notion that he was going to see some huge increase in rushes; but rather the fact he put up low end RB1 numbers with limited work last season (a little over 50%). And the fact he's a PPR beast. I see nothing having really changed for those prospects moving forward with the addition of Zeke. If it was Cook or Hunt, then maybe I'd see some worry about losing some of that passing work. But a guy who was able to be a low end RB1 with only 6 TDs on the season.... sign me up. Let's me know he doesn't need 10+ to get there again.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

I agree.

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going.

I mean, it’s possible, but NEP is somewhat devoid of WR compared to BOB’s past teams (including his last stint with the Pats)

Gesecki just separated his shoulder, a potentially devastating injury, and Mac is going to be dumping off to someone.

Given the options, why would it be Zeke? Sure, he can pass protect, but at this stage of his career is that going to be a more productive option than RS?

Color me skeptical.

 

[Zow]

I have it as a slight ding to Rhamondre...still value in the third round IMHO.

Hey, we agree on something!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going

One look at the garbage they have at
WR, BOB would be a fool not to adjust his offense at all. I mean last time he was around the offense flowed through its two star TEs. Hunter and Geseicke are NOT stars, they’re average at best. Their best offensive weapon is Stevenson. It’s not that complicated.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

I agree.

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going.

I mean, it’s possible, but NEP is somewhat devoid of WR compared to BOB’s past teams (including his last stint with the Pats)

Gesecki just separated his shoulder, a potentially devastating injury, and Mac is going to be dumping off to someone.

Given the options, why would it be Zeke? Sure, he can pass protect, but at this stage of his career is that going to be a mote productive option than RS?

Color me skeptical.

I disagree on some of this. NE (and BOB in NE and HOU) has been big on underneath routes. Crossers. Quick hitters. Bubble screens. Slants. Play action seam routes. NE has not been big on over-the-top stuff, post patterns, or plays that take long to develop. If they try to run many of those with Mac, he will get killed given the current state of the OL. Patricia was in way over his head last year. They would get in situations where they ran Parker and Thorton on deep crosses, Mac was under duress, and he would either last gasp fling it to Meyers for a five-yard gain on 3rd and 12 or dump it to Stevenson.

BOB knows how to scheme and gameplan at a way higher level than Patricia. What else changed from last year? Now they have JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys. They also added Gesicki (who suffered what is described as a minor injury with expectation that he will be back for Week 1). He is a legit receiving option (Jonnu was 100% useless) that really is more a WR than a TE. Bourne was their best receiver in 2021, but Patricia literally hated him and wouldn't play him. Essentially, he would be another weapon that really wasn't utilized last year.

Combine how NE used their backs except for last year, how BOB used his backs in the past, and that the puzzle pieces as receivers are much better suited to BOB than Patricia, I do not expect Stevenson to have as many receptions this year. I get it, people will disagree with that assessment.

I still will hold firm that when BB has had two healthy primary backs FOR YEARS NOW, one has not gotten a huge majority share of the workload. People are acting like Stevenson is the next Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson. Sure, he's talented, but is he perennial All Pro material? Is getting 5 yards on a catch or a carry really going to help them if it's 3rd and 14? How about when they need to go 80 yards with two minutes to play? He's still a RB . . . and in today's NFL, RB's are not what they used to be. The Top 3 RB in rushing yards last year did not make the playoffs.

The other thing not discussed so far is how people view the overall state of the team. Back in the Brady era, they would get the lead, play conservatively, and run out the clock at the end of games, feeding the primary back with a lot of late game carries. Do people think the Pats this year are going to be sitting on double digit leads very often? I think they will be competitive and hang around in a lot of games, but I don't think they will have many games when they are up big and can take the air out of the ball. They have a monster schedule and face almost every top QB in the league this year. It's very unlikely the Pats can go ground and pound and win games 13-9.

At this point, we have no idea who will be on the field in catch up situations. It could be Stevenson. Or Elliott. Or Strong. Or Montgomery. It will likely be a split among multiple backs. They may not even play a back some of the time and go with 3 WR / 2TE with an empty backfield. Stevenson is their best weapon, but they can't play him on every down and burn him out. If he gets hurt, then they are in deep doo doo. So, yes, I do think there will be plenty of times Elliott is in for pass protection getting some dump offs. Strong will get some screens or motion routes. At some point, Harris / Montgomery / Taylor will see some touches. The huge majority of teams have non-vital players get involved . . . even if they have other players that should be getting the ball more.

I expect the 2023 offense to look a lot like the 2021 offense. Parker-JJSS-Douglas-Bourne-Thornton- Henry-Gesicki is a decent upgrade over Meyers-Agholor-Bourne-Harry-Olszewski-Henry-Smith. Sure, that may not be a bunch of premium options, but it's still a better grouping than 2021 (when the team ranked 6th in scoring and 15th in offensive yardage). The RB split that year was Harris 220 touches, Stevenson 147 touches, others 130 touches.

This year is like every other year. Scrubs get backfield touches. No one wants to account for that, and this year should be no different. Guys not named Rhamondre or Zeke are going to get the football. Last year they had 46 touches go to other guys. Maybe Stevenson stays healthy and could see a line of 220 carries and 40 receptions (I realize that's fewer catches than last year). Maybe Zeke does take over the GL work. Give RS 5 ypc and 6 ypr with the same # of TD (6) as last year. That's a very similar total workload (just more carries than receptions). That would add up to 210 fantasy points. That would have ranked RB16 last year. Call me crazy, but I think his scoring total will be closer to RB15 than RB5.

But my overall point has been the same. Last year he was a fantasy gift. He was a huge value based on where he was drafted. His ADP was RB31, and he ended up ranked RB8. He produced at 100 fantasy points over expected production based on his draft position. This year, FantasyPros shows his ADP as RB9. He's not a bad pick there and should return most of his value (if he stays healthy) even if he dipped to RB15. To have a ROI of +100 points again, he'd have to end up as the #1 or #2 RB this season.

I saw some people projecting him earlier this offseason as a 2000 YFS / 15 TD back. Like I said then, that's great if he produced that, because that likely meant NE was ahead most games and were winning a lot (and would be a playoff team). Sure, if everything went right, RS stayed completely healthy, Zeke got hurt in Week 1, the other guys were completely inept, maybe Mac missed time, a couple receivers got hurt, etc., then there is a scenario where Stevenson does put up one of the best seasons for a RB ever. If people like to chase upside guys, that has a slim chance of happening. I am not anti-Stevenson, but I am pro-value. I just don't think there is a ton of value if I had to take Stevenson as RB9 in the back of Round 2. Every draft is different, and if he started free falling I would certainly take him. But especially where I live, there's no way he would ever fall (living in NE, I suspect someone will take him as a Top 5 RB in the first round).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys.

Have you watched JJSS recently because quick and jitterbuggy, he is not?

 

[Anarchy99]

JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys.

Have you watched JJSS recently because quick and jitterbuggy, he is not?

He looked decent in some of the camp highlights and reports that I have seen. He may not have been fast, but he would make a cut and get open to shake defenders and had some days where he was making catch after catch. Douglas is quicker and more jitterbuggy than JJSS has been. From what I have seen from practice, they have been trying to get receivers to shake a defender and then run drag routes to either a) get a step on their defender and then receive a pass or b) keep moving across the field to draw a second defender to open up the field behind them for another receiver. JJSS can do either of those and doesn't have to have Tyreek speed to do it. They have tried to do that with Thornton, either across the field or down the field, but he plays slower than his actual speed, and he hasn't been able to shake defenders to force another defender to pick him up. That's really not going to help his cause any, as he isn't getting himself open or anyone else open . . . which makes him hard to play.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

I agree.

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going.

I mean, it’s possible, but NEP is somewhat devoid of WR compared to BOB’s past teams (including his last stint with the Pats)

Gesecki just separated his shoulder, a potentially devastating injury, and Mac is going to be dumping off to someone.

Given the options, why would it be Zeke? Sure, he can pass protect, but at this stage of his career is that going to be a mote productive option than RS?

Color me skeptical.

I disagree on some of this. NE (and BOB in NE and HOU) has been big on underneath routes. Crossers. Quick hitters. Bubble screens. Slants. Play action seam routes. NE has not been big on over-the-top stuff, post patterns, or plays that take long to develop. If they try to run many of those with Mac, he will get killed given the current state of the OL. Patricia was in way over his head last year. They would get in situations where they ran Parker and Thorton on deep crosses, Mac was under duress, and he would either last gasp fling it to Meyers for a five-yard gain on 3rd and 12 or dump it to Stevenson.

BOB knows how to scheme and gameplan at a way higher level than Patricia. What else changed from last year? Now they have JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys. They also added Gesicki (who suffered what is described as a minor injury with expectation that he will be back for Week 1). He is a legit receiving option (Jonnu was 100% useless) that really is more a WR than a TE. Bourne was their best receiver in 2021, but Patricia literally hated him and wouldn't play him. Essentially, he would be another weapon that really wasn't utilized last year.

Combine how NE used their backs except for last year, how BOB used his backs in the past, and that the puzzle pieces as receivers are much better suited to BOB than Patricia, I do not expect Stevenson to have as many receptions this year. I get it, people will disagree with that assessment.

I still will hold firm that when BB has had two healthy primary backs FOR YEARS NOW, one has not gotten a huge majority share of the workload. People are acting like Stevenson is the next Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson. Sure, he's talented, but is he perennial All Pro material? Is getting 5 yards on a catch or a carry really going to help them if it's 3rd and 14? How about when they need to go 80 yards with two minutes to play? He's still a RB . . . and in today's NFL, RB's are not what they used to be. The Top 3 RB in rushing yards last year did not make the playoffs.

The other thing not discussed so far is how people view the overall state of the team. Back in the Brady era, they would get the lead, play conservatively, and run out the clock at the end of games, feeding the primary back with a lot of late game carries. Do people think the Pats this year are going to be sitting on double digit leads very often? I think they will be competitive and hang around in a lot of games, but I don't think they will have many games when they are up big and can take the air out of the ball. They have a monster schedule and face almost every top QB in the league this year. It's very unlikely the Pats can go ground and pound and win games 13-9.

At this point, we have no idea who will be on the field in catch up situations. It could be Stevenson. Or Elliott. Or Strong. Or Montgomery. It will likely be a split among multiple backs. They may not even play a back some of the time and go with 3 WR / 2TE with an empty backfield. Stevenson is their best weapon, but they can't play him on every down and burn him out. If he gets hurt, then they are in deep doo doo. So, yes, I do think there will be plenty of times Elliott is in for pass protection getting some dump offs. Strong will get some screens or motion routes. At some point, Harris / Montgomery / Taylor will see some touches. The huge majority of teams have non-vital players get involved . . . even if they have other players that should be getting the ball more.

I expect the 2023 offense to look a lot like the 2021 offense. Parker-JJSS-Douglas-Bourne-Thornton- Henry-Gesicki is a decent upgrade over Meyers-Agholor-Bourne-Harry-Olszewski-Henry-Smith. Sure, that may not be a bunch of premium options, but it's still a better grouping than 2021 (when the team ranked 6th in scoring and 15th in offensive yardage). The RB split that year was Harris 220 touches, Stevenson 147 touches, others 130 touches.

This year is like every other year. Scrubs get backfield touches. No one wants to account for that, and this year should be no different. Guys not named Rhamondre or Zeke are going to get the football. Last year they had 46 touches go to other guys. Maybe Stevenson stays healthy and could see a line of 220 carries and 40 receptions (I realize that's fewer catches than last year). Maybe Zeke does take over the GL work. Give RS 5 ypc and 6 ypr with the same # of TD (6) as last year. That's a very similar total workload (just more carries than receptions). That would add up to 210 fantasy points. That would have ranked RB16 last year. Call me crazy, but I think his scoring total will be closer to RB15 than RB5.

But my overall point has been the same. Last year he was a fantasy gift. He was a huge value based on where he was drafted. His ADP was RB31, and he ended up ranked RB8. He produced at 100 fantasy points over expected production based on his draft position. This year, FantasyPros shows his ADP as RB9. He's not a bad pick there and should return most of his value (if he stays healthy) even if he dipped to RB15. To have a ROI of +100 points again, he'd have to end up as the #1 or #2 RB this season.

I saw some people projecting him earlier this offseason as a 2000 YFS / 15 TD back. Like I said then, that's great if he produced that, because that likely meant NE was ahead most games and were winning a lot (and would be a playoff team). Sure, if everything went right, RS stayed completely healthy, Zeke got hurt in Week 1, the other guys were completely inept, maybe Mac missed time, a couple receivers got hurt, etc., then there is a scenario where Stevenson does put up one of the best seasons for a RB ever. If people like to chase upside guys, that has a slim chance of happening. I am not anti-Stevenson, but I am pro-value. I just don't think there is a ton of value if I had to take Stevenson as RB9 in the back of Round 2. Every draft is different, and if he started free falling I would certainly take him. But especially where I live, there's no way he would ever fall (living in NE, I suspect someone will take him as a Top 5 RB in the first round).

That’s just way too much to read.

good lord man.

 

[Anarchy99]

Apparently, I am not the only one that has some concerns about Stevenson. I took a look at the FBG's staff rankings: Sam Wagman (RB15), Sigmund Bloom (16), Christian Williams (23), and Anthony Amico (26). Looking at the rankings on Fantasy Pros, 8 experts have Stevenson ranked between 20-23. Everyone just giving their best guesses.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He looked decent in some of the camp highlights and reports that I have seen. He may not have been fast, but he would make a cut and get open to shake defenders and had some days where he was making catch after catch.

He's big and slow. Not jitterbuggy and quick.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Apparently, I am not the only one that has some concerns about Stevenson. I took a look at the FBG's staff rankings: Sam Wagman (RB15), Sigmund Bloom (16), Christian Williams (23), and Anthony Amico (26). Looking at the rankings on Fantasy Pros, 8 experts have Stevenson ranked between 20-23. Everyone just giving their best guesses.

Yes, I’ve seen much of the same. To me it just makes him a value as it drives his price down.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Apparently, I am not the only one that has some concerns about Stevenson. I took a look at the FBG's staff rankings: Sam Wagman (RB15), Sigmund Bloom (16), Christian Williams (23), and Anthony Amico (26). Looking at the rankings on Fantasy Pros, 8 experts have Stevenson ranked between 20-23. Everyone just giving their best guesses.

15 and 16 are "concerned" rankings? Seems about right to me.

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

I agree.

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going.

I mean, it’s possible, but NEP is somewhat devoid of WR compared to BOB’s past teams (including his last stint with the Pats)

Gesecki just separated his shoulder, a potentially devastating injury, and Mac is going to be dumping off to someone.

Given the options, why would it be Zeke? Sure, he can pass protect, but at this stage of his career is that going to be a mote productive option than RS?

Color me skeptical.

I disagree on some of this. NE (and BOB in NE and HOU) has been big on underneath routes. Crossers. Quick hitters. Bubble screens. Slants. Play action seam routes. NE has not been big on over-the-top stuff, post patterns, or plays that take long to develop. If they try to run many of those with Mac, he will get killed given the current state of the OL. Patricia was in way over his head last year. They would get in situations where they ran Parker and Thorton on deep crosses, Mac was under duress, and he would either last gasp fling it to Meyers for a five-yard gain on 3rd and 12 or dump it to Stevenson.

BOB knows how to scheme and gameplan at a way higher level than Patricia. What else changed from last year? Now they have JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys. They also added Gesicki (who suffered what is described as a minor injury with expectation that he will be back for Week 1). He is a legit receiving option (Jonnu was 100% useless) that really is more a WR than a TE. Bourne was their best receiver in 2021, but Patricia literally hated him and wouldn't play him. Essentially, he would be another weapon that really wasn't utilized last year.

Combine how NE used their backs except for last year, how BOB used his backs in the past, and that the puzzle pieces as receivers are much better suited to BOB than Patricia, I do not expect Stevenson to have as many receptions this year. I get it, people will disagree with that assessment.

I still will hold firm that when BB has had two healthy primary backs FOR YEARS NOW, one has not gotten a huge majority share of the workload. People are acting like Stevenson is the next Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson. Sure, he's talented, but is he perennial All Pro material? Is getting 5 yards on a catch or a carry really going to help them if it's 3rd and 14? How about when they need to go 80 yards with two minutes to play? He's still a RB . . . and in today's NFL, RB's are not what they used to be. The Top 3 RB in rushing yards last year did not make the playoffs.

The other thing not discussed so far is how people view the overall state of the team. Back in the Brady era, they would get the lead, play conservatively, and run out the clock at the end of games, feeding the primary back with a lot of late game carries. Do people think the Pats this year are going to be sitting on double digit leads very often? I think they will be competitive and hang around in a lot of games, but I don't think they will have many games when they are up big and can take the air out of the ball. They have a monster schedule and face almost every top QB in the league this year. It's very unlikely the Pats can go ground and pound and win games 13-9.

At this point, we have no idea who will be on the field in catch up situations. It could be Stevenson. Or Elliott. Or Strong. Or Montgomery. It will likely be a split among multiple backs. They may not even play a back some of the time and go with 3 WR / 2TE with an empty backfield. Stevenson is their best weapon, but they can't play him on every down and burn him out. If he gets hurt, then they are in deep doo doo. So, yes, I do think there will be plenty of times Elliott is in for pass protection getting some dump offs. Strong will get some screens or motion routes. At some point, Harris / Montgomery / Taylor will see some touches. The huge majority of teams have non-vital players get involved . . . even if they have other players that should be getting the ball more.

I expect the 2023 offense to look a lot like the 2021 offense. Parker-JJSS-Douglas-Bourne-Thornton- Henry-Gesicki is a decent upgrade over Meyers-Agholor-Bourne-Harry-Olszewski-Henry-Smith. Sure, that may not be a bunch of premium options, but it's still a better grouping than 2021 (when the team ranked 6th in scoring and 15th in offensive yardage). The RB split that year was Harris 220 touches, Stevenson 147 touches, others 130 touches.

This year is like every other year. Scrubs get backfield touches. No one wants to account for that, and this year should be no different. Guys not named Rhamondre or Zeke are going to get the football. Last year they had 46 touches go to other guys. Maybe Stevenson stays healthy and could see a line of 220 carries and 40 receptions (I realize that's fewer catches than last year). Maybe Zeke does take over the GL work. Give RS 5 ypc and 6 ypr with the same # of TD (6) as last year. That's a very similar total workload (just more carries than receptions). That would add up to 210 fantasy points. That would have ranked RB16 last year. Call me crazy, but I think his scoring total will be closer to RB15 than RB5.

But my overall point has been the same. Last year he was a fantasy gift. He was a huge value based on where he was drafted. His ADP was RB31, and he ended up ranked RB8. He produced at 100 fantasy points over expected production based on his draft position. This year, FantasyPros shows his ADP as RB9. He's not a bad pick there and should return most of his value (if he stays healthy) even if he dipped to RB15. To have a ROI of +100 points again, he'd have to end up as the #1 or #2 RB this season.

I saw some people projecting him earlier this offseason as a 2000 YFS / 15 TD back. Like I said then, that's great if he produced that, because that likely meant NE was ahead most games and were winning a lot (and would be a playoff team). Sure, if everything went right, RS stayed completely healthy, Zeke got hurt in Week 1, the other guys were completely inept, maybe Mac missed time, a couple receivers got hurt, etc., then there is a scenario where Stevenson does put up one of the best seasons for a RB ever. If people like to chase upside guys, that has a slim chance of happening. I am not anti-Stevenson, but I am pro-value. I just don't think there is a ton of value if I had to take Stevenson as RB9 in the back of Round 2. Every draft is different, and if he started free falling I would certainly take him. But especially where I live, there's no way he would ever fall (living in NE, I suspect someone will take him as a Top 5 RB in the first round).

That’s just way too much to read.

good lord man.

new here?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I saw some people projecting him earlier this offseason as a 2000 YFS / 15 TD back.

Who projected this?

I didn’t see anywhere near this high of an expectation.

 

[Lansdowne]

Apparently, I am not the only one that has some concerns about Stevenson. I took a look at the FBG's staff rankings: Sam Wagman (RB15), Sigmund Bloom (16), Christian Williams (23), and Anthony Amico (26). Looking at the rankings on Fantasy Pros, 8 experts have Stevenson ranked between 20-23. Everyone just giving their best guesses.

15 and 16 are "concerned" rankings? Seems about right to me.

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

I agree.

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going.

I mean, it’s possible, but NEP is somewhat devoid of WR compared to BOB’s past teams (including his last stint with the Pats)

Gesecki just separated his shoulder, a potentially devastating injury, and Mac is going to be dumping off to someone.

Given the options, why would it be Zeke? Sure, he can pass protect, but at this stage of his career is that going to be a mote productive option than RS?

Color me skeptical.

I disagree on some of this. NE (and BOB in NE and HOU) has been big on underneath routes. Crossers. Quick hitters. Bubble screens. Slants. Play action seam routes. NE has not been big on over-the-top stuff, post patterns, or plays that take long to develop. If they try to run many of those with Mac, he will get killed given the current state of the OL. Patricia was in way over his head last year. They would get in situations where they ran Parker and Thorton on deep crosses, Mac was under duress, and he would either last gasp fling it to Meyers for a five-yard gain on 3rd and 12 or dump it to Stevenson.

BOB knows how to scheme and gameplan at a way higher level than Patricia. What else changed from last year? Now they have JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys. They also added Gesicki (who suffered what is described as a minor injury with expectation that he will be back for Week 1). He is a legit receiving option (Jonnu was 100% useless) that really is more a WR than a TE. Bourne was their best receiver in 2021, but Patricia literally hated him and wouldn't play him. Essentially, he would be another weapon that really wasn't utilized last year.

Combine how NE used their backs except for last year, how BOB used his backs in the past, and that the puzzle pieces as receivers are much better suited to BOB than Patricia, I do not expect Stevenson to have as many receptions this year. I get it, people will disagree with that assessment.

I still will hold firm that when BB has had two healthy primary backs FOR YEARS NOW, one has not gotten a huge majority share of the workload. People are acting like Stevenson is the next Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson. Sure, he's talented, but is he perennial All Pro material? Is getting 5 yards on a catch or a carry really going to help them if it's 3rd and 14? How about when they need to go 80 yards with two minutes to play? He's still a RB . . . and in today's NFL, RB's are not what they used to be. The Top 3 RB in rushing yards last year did not make the playoffs.

The other thing not discussed so far is how people view the overall state of the team. Back in the Brady era, they would get the lead, play conservatively, and run out the clock at the end of games, feeding the primary back with a lot of late game carries. Do people think the Pats this year are going to be sitting on double digit leads very often? I think they will be competitive and hang around in a lot of games, but I don't think they will have many games when they are up big and can take the air out of the ball. They have a monster schedule and face almost every top QB in the league this year. It's very unlikely the Pats can go ground and pound and win games 13-9.

At this point, we have no idea who will be on the field in catch up situations. It could be Stevenson. Or Elliott. Or Strong. Or Montgomery. It will likely be a split among multiple backs. They may not even play a back some of the time and go with 3 WR / 2TE with an empty backfield. Stevenson is their best weapon, but they can't play him on every down and burn him out. If he gets hurt, then they are in deep doo doo. So, yes, I do think there will be plenty of times Elliott is in for pass protection getting some dump offs. Strong will get some screens or motion routes. At some point, Harris / Montgomery / Taylor will see some touches. The huge majority of teams have non-vital players get involved . . . even if they have other players that should be getting the ball more.

I expect the 2023 offense to look a lot like the 2021 offense. Parker-JJSS-Douglas-Bourne-Thornton- Henry-Gesicki is a decent upgrade over Meyers-Agholor-Bourne-Harry-Olszewski-Henry-Smith. Sure, that may not be a bunch of premium options, but it's still a better grouping than 2021 (when the team ranked 6th in scoring and 15th in offensive yardage). The RB split that year was Harris 220 touches, Stevenson 147 touches, others 130 touches.

This year is like every other year. Scrubs get backfield touches. No one wants to account for that, and this year should be no different. Guys not named Rhamondre or Zeke are going to get the football. Last year they had 46 touches go to other guys. Maybe Stevenson stays healthy and could see a line of 220 carries and 40 receptions (I realize that's fewer catches than last year). Maybe Zeke does take over the GL work. Give RS 5 ypc and 6 ypr with the same # of TD (6) as last year. That's a very similar total workload (just more carries than receptions). That would add up to 210 fantasy points. That would have ranked RB16 last year. Call me crazy, but I think his scoring total will be closer to RB15 than RB5.

But my overall point has been the same. Last year he was a fantasy gift. He was a huge value based on where he was drafted. His ADP was RB31, and he ended up ranked RB8. He produced at 100 fantasy points over expected production based on his draft position. This year, FantasyPros shows his ADP as RB9. He's not a bad pick there and should return most of his value (if he stays healthy) even if he dipped to RB15. To have a ROI of +100 points again, he'd have to end up as the #1 or #2 RB this season.

I saw some people projecting him earlier this offseason as a 2000 YFS / 15 TD back. Like I said then, that's great if he produced that, because that likely meant NE was ahead most games and were winning a lot (and would be a playoff team). Sure, if everything went right, RS stayed completely healthy, Zeke got hurt in Week 1, the other guys were completely inept, maybe Mac missed time, a couple receivers got hurt, etc., then there is a scenario where Stevenson does put up one of the best seasons for a RB ever. If people like to chase upside guys, that has a slim chance of happening. I am not anti-Stevenson, but I am pro-value. I just don't think there is a ton of value if I had to take Stevenson as RB9 in the back of Round 2. Every draft is different, and if he started free falling I would certainly take him. But especially where I live, there's no way he would ever fall (living in NE, I suspect someone will take him as a Top 5 RB in the first round).

That’s just way too much to read.

good lord man.

new here?

Stevenson finished RB13 in my league last year with a 1040/5 ~ 421/1 line so it’s about right, a slight ding but not a panicked reaction. Breakout predictions may be tempered now, but fully conceivable he repeats last year’s output.

 

[humpback]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

Seems that he thinks he's pretty good but not really good then, no? He hasn't ridden him pretty hard, and he just went out and signed another proven RB.

I mean, if you really think about it, the only times they've ever really ridden their RBs hard have been when they've brought in older veterans from other teams- Antowain Smith at age 28, Corey Dillon at age 30, and LaGarrette Blount at age 30. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that they may intend on riding Zeke into the ground and using Stevenson more in the White role.

 

[Streetduck]

But NE didn't need to spend $4M to get a guy to get 3-5 touches a game.

No they spent that money for a great blocking back and short yardage. Won't be anywhere near 50/50 without injury to RS.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But NE didn't need to spend $4M to get a guy to get 3-5 touches a game.

No they spent that money for a great blocking back and short yardage. Won't be anywhere near 50/50 without injury to RS.

They also didn’t spend $4M

They spent 1.5M with what, $600k guaranteed + a whooooole bunch of incentives he’s unlikely to hit that could get him to $4M

ETA: I stand corrected - apparently if he’s on the roster week 1 he’s guaranteed $4M

 

[Anarchy99]

But NE didn't need to spend $4M to get a guy to get 3-5 touches a game.

No they spent that money for a great blocking back and short yardage. Won't be anywhere near 50/50 without injury to RS.

They didn't need to pay $4M for a guy to get a few short yardage carries and a guy that can block. Those guys are not even a dime a dozen. More like a dime for ten dozens. They could have signed an UDFA straight out of college for that at the league minimum.

I know, I know, whatever BB did in the past 20 years is completely irrelevant. But how many times has Bill brought in an established back with no intent to use him? Pretty much never. When has Bill paid a RB $4-6M and not use him? That one doesn't even get the "pretty much" clarifier. That one is straight up never.

 

[Anarchy99]

But NE didn't need to spend $4M to get a guy to get 3-5 touches a game.

No they spent that money for a great blocking back and short yardage. Won't be anywhere near 50/50 without injury to RS.

They also didn’t spend $4M

They spent 1.5M with what, $600k guaranteed + a whooooole bunch of incentives he’s unlikely to hit that could get him to $4M

$1M signing bonus plus $3M salary plus $2M in incentives. If he is on the Week 1 roster, he is guaranteed $4M.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But NE didn't need to spend $4M to get a guy to get 3-5 touches a game.

No they spent that money for a great blocking back and short yardage. Won't be anywhere near 50/50 without injury to RS.

They also didn’t spend $4M

They spent 1.5M with what, $600k guaranteed + a whooooole bunch of incentives he’s unlikely to hit that could get him to $4M

$1M signing bonus plus $3M salary plus $2M in incentives. If he is on the Week 1 roster, he is guaranteed $4M.

Huh, I thought I’d read something different.

My bad - I stand corrected.

I still don’t think he’s more than a breather/short yardage back.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

I agree.

And I’m not entirely sure I agree with the assertion that since BOB has historically not thrown to RBs that he would come into NEP & just keep that trend going.

I mean, it’s possible, but NEP is somewhat devoid of WR compared to BOB’s past teams (including his last stint with the Pats)

Gesecki just separated his shoulder, a potentially devastating injury, and Mac is going to be dumping off to someone.

Given the options, why would it be Zeke? Sure, he can pass protect, but at this stage of his career is that going to be a mote productive option than RS?

Color me skeptical.

I disagree on some of this. NE (and BOB in NE and HOU) has been big on underneath routes. Crossers. Quick hitters. Bubble screens. Slants. Play action seam routes. NE has not been big on over-the-top stuff, post patterns, or plays that take long to develop. If they try to run many of those with Mac, he will get killed given the current state of the OL. Patricia was in way over his head last year. They would get in situations where they ran Parker and Thorton on deep crosses, Mac was under duress, and he would either last gasp fling it to Meyers for a five-yard gain on 3rd and 12 or dump it to Stevenson.

BOB knows how to scheme and gameplan at a way higher level than Patricia. What else changed from last year? Now they have JJSS and Douglas, both quicker / jitterbug short yardage guys. They also added Gesicki (who suffered what is described as a minor injury with expectation that he will be back for Week 1). He is a legit receiving option (Jonnu was 100% useless) that really is more a WR than a TE. Bourne was their best receiver in 2021, but Patricia literally hated him and wouldn't play him. Essentially, he would be another weapon that really wasn't utilized last year.

Combine how NE used their backs except for last year, how BOB used his backs in the past, and that the puzzle pieces as receivers are much better suited to BOB than Patricia, I do not expect Stevenson to have as many receptions this year. I get it, people will disagree with that assessment.

I still will hold firm that when BB has had two healthy primary backs FOR YEARS NOW, one has not gotten a huge majority share of the workload. People are acting like Stevenson is the next Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson. Sure, he's talented, but is he perennial All Pro material? Is getting 5 yards on a catch or a carry really going to help them if it's 3rd and 14? How about when they need to go 80 yards with two minutes to play? He's still a RB . . . and in today's NFL, RB's are not what they used to be. The Top 3 RB in rushing yards last year did not make the playoffs.

The other thing not discussed so far is how people view the overall state of the team. Back in the Brady era, they would get the lead, play conservatively, and run out the clock at the end of games, feeding the primary back with a lot of late game carries. Do people think the Pats this year are going to be sitting on double digit leads very often? I think they will be competitive and hang around in a lot of games, but I don't think they will have many games when they are up big and can take the air out of the ball. They have a monster schedule and face almost every top QB in the league this year. It's very unlikely the Pats can go ground and pound and win games 13-9.

At this point, we have no idea who will be on the field in catch up situations. It could be Stevenson. Or Elliott. Or Strong. Or Montgomery. It will likely be a split among multiple backs. They may not even play a back some of the time and go with 3 WR / 2TE with an empty backfield. Stevenson is their best weapon, but they can't play him on every down and burn him out. If he gets hurt, then they are in deep doo doo. So, yes, I do think there will be plenty of times Elliott is in for pass protection getting some dump offs. Strong will get some screens or motion routes. At some point, Harris / Montgomery / Taylor will see some touches. The huge majority of teams have non-vital players get involved . . . even if they have other players that should be getting the ball more.

I expect the 2023 offense to look a lot like the 2021 offense. Parker-JJSS-Douglas-Bourne-Thornton- Henry-Gesicki is a decent upgrade over Meyers-Agholor-Bourne-Harry-Olszewski-Henry-Smith. Sure, that may not be a bunch of premium options, but it's still a better grouping than 2021 (when the team ranked 6th in scoring and 15th in offensive yardage). The RB split that year was Harris 220 touches, Stevenson 147 touches, others 130 touches.

This year is like every other year. Scrubs get backfield touches. No one wants to account for that, and this year should be no different. Guys not named Rhamondre or Zeke are going to get the football. Last year they had 46 touches go to other guys. Maybe Stevenson stays healthy and could see a line of 220 carries and 40 receptions (I realize that's fewer catches than last year). Maybe Zeke does take over the GL work. Give RS 5 ypc and 6 ypr with the same # of TD (6) as last year. That's a very similar total workload (just more carries than receptions). That would add up to 210 fantasy points. That would have ranked RB16 last year. Call me crazy, but I think his scoring total will be closer to RB15 than RB5.

But my overall point has been the same. Last year he was a fantasy gift. He was a huge value based on where he was drafted. His ADP was RB31, and he ended up ranked RB8. He produced at 100 fantasy points over expected production based on his draft position. This year, FantasyPros shows his ADP as RB9. He's not a bad pick there and should return most of his value (if he stays healthy) even if he dipped to RB15. To have a ROI of +100 points again, he'd have to end up as the #1 or #2 RB this season.

I saw some people projecting him earlier this offseason as a 2000 YFS / 15 TD back. Like I said then, that's great if he produced that, because that likely meant NE was ahead most games and were winning a lot (and would be a playoff team). Sure, if everything went right, RS stayed completely healthy, Zeke got hurt in Week 1, the other guys were completely inept, maybe Mac missed time, a couple receivers got hurt, etc., then there is a scenario where Stevenson does put up one of the best seasons for a RB ever. If people like to chase upside guys, that has a slim chance of happening. I am not anti-Stevenson, but I am pro-value. I just don't think there is a ton of value if I had to take Stevenson as RB9 in the back of Round 2. Every draft is different, and if he started free falling I would certainly take him. But especially where I live, there's no way he would ever fall (living in NE, I suspect someone will take him as a Top 5 RB in the first round).

That’s just way too much to read.

good lord man.

That’s a bizarre reaction to good homer perspective. It would be better to just say “thank you.”

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They didn't need to pay $4M for a guy to get a few short yardage carries and a guy that can block.

Apparently they did.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That’s a bizarre reaction to good homer perspective. It would be better to just say “thank you.”

But I wasn’t thankful, so nothing bizarre about it. It’s far too much and far too much repetition, now that I’ve read it.

Brevity can be valuable.

Also @Boston is a homer who apparently completely disagrees with Anarchy on this. Being a homer doesn’t make him right.

They’re all just opinions. I appreciate anyone’s input, homer or not.

You can thank him if you’d like.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

That’s a bizarre reaction to good homer perspective. It would be better to just say “thank you.”

But I wasn’t thankful, so nothing bizarre about it. It’s far too much and far too much repetition, now that I’ve read it.

Brevity can be valuable.

Also @Boston is a homer who apparently completely disagrees with Anarchy on this. Being a homer doesn’t make him right.

They’re all just opinions. I appreciate anyone’s input, homer or not.

You can thank him if you’d like.

Huh. Ok. Interesting perspective.

Similarly, I don’t think all homers are right. But they typically have a different vantage point than me, and I appreciate it a great deal.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Huh. Ok. Interesting perspective.

Similarly, I don’t think all homers are right. But they typically have a different vantage point than me, and I appreciate it a great deal.

I’m happy for you.

Mostly I was joking with Anarchy, with whom I’ve always gotten along.

Maybe if you knew that you’d be less critical of a post that was 99% intended as humor. But you didn’t. So here you are.

Have a nice day.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Huh. Ok. Interesting perspective.

Similarly, I don’t think all homers are right. But they typically have a different vantage point than me, and I appreciate it a great deal.

I’m happy for you.

Mostly I was joking with Anarchy, with whom I’ve always gotten along.

Maybe if you knew that you’d be less critical of a post that was 99% intended as humor. But you didn’t. So here you are.

Have a nice day.

Cool. Happy for you.

I’m at great peace with it all.

 

[Anarchy99]

That’s a bizarre reaction to good homer perspective. It would be better to just say “thank you.”

But I wasn’t thankful, so nothing bizarre about it. It’s far too much and far too much repetition, now that I’ve read it.

Brevity can be valuable.

Also @Boston is a homer who apparently completely disagrees with Anarchy on this. Being a homer doesn’t make him right.

They’re all just opinions. I appreciate anyone’s input, homer or not.

You can thank him if you’d like.

Huh. Ok. Interesting perspective.

Similarly, I don’t think all homers are right. But they typically have a different vantage point than me, and I appreciate it a great deal.

I may be a homer, but I have provided in-depth analysis based on historical trends involving the coach, the OC, their signings, the salaries they've paid, their usage rate, game by game breakdowns of touches, what they've done to adapt to injuries, etc. A homer opinion would be that Rhamondre is wikked good and he's gonna go nuts this year!!!! That's a homer take.

I gave my Football Guys Senior Analyst take from my 10+ years as a staff member on this website. I have followed the Patriots since before BB got there and covered all things involving the Patriots for Footballguys for years. I used to know and interact with several of their beat reporters. I don't really care if people agree with me, and I appreciate when other folks have a detailed explanation as to why they feel the way they do. Just trying to provide an informed opinion. People can choose to read my encyclopedia length posts or not. People can feel free to put me on ignore. No sweat off of my back.

Matt Waldman summarized things better than I did in his comments on RS:

"Be open to the possibility that Bill Belichick gives Elliott a larger split than the public anticipates. If this looks like the case, be prepared to adjust fast. This makes Stevenson more of a gamble than it may appear to those who think Elliott's skills have diminished dramatically. They haven't but count on Stevenson to be the touch leader."

 

[Alex P Keaton]

That’s a bizarre reaction to good homer perspective. It would be better to just say “thank you.”

But I wasn’t thankful, so nothing bizarre about it. It’s far too much and far too much repetition, now that I’ve read it.

Brevity can be valuable.

Also @Boston is a homer who apparently completely disagrees with Anarchy on this. Being a homer doesn’t make him right.

They’re all just opinions. I appreciate anyone’s input, homer or not.

You can thank him if you’d like.

Huh. Ok. Interesting perspective.

Similarly, I don’t think all homers are right. But they typically have a different vantage point than me, and I appreciate it a great deal.

I may be a homer, but I have provided in-depth analysis based on historical trends involving the coach, the OC, their signings, the salaries they've paid, their usage rate, game by game breakdowns of touches, what they've done to adapt to injuries, etc. A homer opinion would be that Rhamondre is wikked good and he's gonna go nuts this year!!!! That's a homer take.

I gave my Football Guys Senior Analyst take from my 10+ years as a staff member on this website. I have followed the Patriots since before BB got there and covered all things involving the Patriots for Footballguys for years. I used to know and interact with several of their beat reporters. I don't really care if people agree with me, and I appreciate when other folks have a detailed explanation as to why they feel the way they do. Just trying to provide an informed opinion. People can choose to read my encyclopedia length posts or not. People can feel free to put me on ignore. No sweat off of my back.

Matt Waldman summarized things better than I did in his comments on RS:

"Be open to the possibility that Bill Belichick gives Elliott a larger split than the public anticipates. If this looks like the case, be prepared to adjust fast. This makes Stevenson more of a gamble than it may appear to those who think Elliott's skills have diminished dramatically. They haven't but count on Stevenson to be the touch leader."

Always appreciate your perspective, particularly all the context you bring from following the Pats closely. Definitely you have knowledge that others like me lack. Now….if we talk the Packers….different issue!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That’s a bizarre reaction to good homer perspective. It would be better to just say “thank you.”

But I wasn’t thankful, so nothing bizarre about it. It’s far too much and far too much repetition, now that I’ve read it.

Brevity can be valuable.

Also @Boston is a homer who apparently completely disagrees with Anarchy on this. Being a homer doesn’t make him right.

They’re all just opinions. I appreciate anyone’s input, homer or not.

You can thank him if you’d like.

Huh. Ok. Interesting perspective.

Similarly, I don’t think all homers are right. But they typically have a different vantage point than me, and I appreciate it a great deal.

I may be a homer, but I have provided in-depth analysis based on historical trends involving the coach, the OC, their signings, the salaries they've paid, their usage rate, game by game breakdowns of touches, what they've done to adapt to injuries, etc. A homer opinion would be that Rhamondre is wikked good and he's gonna go nuts this year!!!! That's a homer take.

I gave my Football Guys Senior Analyst take from my 10+ years as a staff member on this website. I have followed the Patriots since before BB got there and covered all things involving the Patriots for Footballguys for years. I used to know and interact with several of their beat reporters. I don't really care if people agree with me, and I appreciate when other folks have a detailed explanation as to why they feel the way they do. Just trying to provide an informed opinion. People can choose to read my encyclopedia length posts or not. People can feel free to put me on ignore. No sweat off of my back.

Matt Waldman summarized things better than I did in his comments on RS:

"Be open to the possibility that Bill Belichick gives Elliott a larger split than the public anticipates. If this looks like the case, be prepared to adjust fast. This makes Stevenson more of a gamble than it may appear to those who think Elliott's skills have diminished dramatically. They haven't but count on Stevenson to be the touch leader."

I respect your input here. I just partly disagree with it based on the factors I’ve outlined.

mostly it’s about the fact that Zeke looked pretty washed the last month of the season in arguably a better offense.

But that’s no slight on you. And I’d hope you recognized the humor in my post upthread. It wasn’t intended as mean or offensive. Apparently someone else took it that way. I thought the joke was obvious.

 

[Boston]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

Seems that he thinks he's pretty good but not really good then, no? He hasn't ridden him pretty hard, and he just went out and signed another proven RB.

I mean, if you really think about it, the only times they've ever really ridden their RBs hard have been when they've brought in older veterans from other teams- Antowain Smith at age 28, Corey Dillon at age 30, and LaGarrette Blount at age 30. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that they may intend on riding Zeke into the ground and using Stevenson more in the White role.

They just signed Zeke in mid-August because Strong, Harris and Montgomery aren’t cutting it and you think they are going to use him as their workhorse? The Pats had no choice but to sign a veteran RB like Zeke or Fournette but IMO it is not because of concerns about Stevenson but because after him the cupboard was pretty bare…the Zeke signing was not part of some masterplan but because they needed a compliment to Stevenson that is a functional NFL-level RB…now, I do think Zeke will be a solid piece of the puzzle because that is the smart way to play football in today’s NFL and the Pats have always liked their multiple RBs but if Zeke is being used as much as Stevenson an offense that I already think is borderline subpar will be worse.

 

[Anarchy99]

mostly it’s about the fact that Zeke looked pretty washed the last month of the season in arguably a better offense.

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today, but the same could be argued the other way. When Damien Harris came back the last month of the season last year, he had more touches than Rhamondre did. Stevenson had games down the stretch with 7, 3, 8, and 6 carries. I hear people clamoring that he's far and away their best offensive player (which I agree with), but at the same time, in games they absolutely, positively had to win to earn a playoff berth . . . they didn't give him the football very much. The last 5 games last year he totaled only 38 receiving yards. He was great in the middle half of the season . . . but he wasn't the same at the end of the year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today,

Not sure what this means.

IIRC RS was also banged up at the end of the year. Might that have contributed to his lower usage?

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today,

Not sure what this means.

IIRC RS was also banged up at the end of the year. Might that have contributed to his lower usage?

How don't have the energy to keep stirring the pot and keep posting.

RS getting banged up and not being able to have a bigger workload at year's end is exactly why they brought in Zeke. They need Elliott to keep RS from having weeks with 20-25 touches. Elliott only coming in for a couple of short yardage situations is not going to take much of Stevenson's plate. I think NE would like to keep RS at around 15 touches a game (meaning Zeke might get 10 touches a game). If Stevenson could play every game, that would be 255 touches on the season. He got 279 last year and was hampered the last part of the season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

They didn't need to pay $4M for a guy to get a few short yardage carries and a guy that can block.

Apparently they did.

I think Zeke has a role - I mean they did use Harris quite a bit last season, and everyone was waiting for the Pats to sign a vet all preseason.

I don’t see Zeke as a tremendous threat because I baked in other backs taking snaps from Stevenson already.

If Zeke does take most of the goal-line work and some two minute drill work it puts a dent in Stevenson’s value of course. I still see him getting decent TD and reception numbers anyway though since he’s an all around back.

I said earlier this knocks Stevenson down a few slots, going from strong RB2 to mid-weak RB2 - with RB1 upside.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today,

Not sure what this means.

IIRC RS was also banged up at the end of the year. Might that have contributed to his lower usage?

How don't have the energy to keep stirring the pot and keep posting.

RS getting banged up and not being able to have a bigger workload at year's end is exactly why they brought in Zeke. They need Elliott to keep RS from having weeks with 20-25 touches. Elliott only coming in for a couple of short yardage situations is not going to take much of Stevenson's plate. I think NE would like to keep RS at around 15 touches a game (meaning Zeke might get 10 touches a game). If Stevenson could play every game, that would be 255 touches on the season. He got 279 last year and was hampered the last part of the season.

Seems like that makes a good case that RS can stay healthier with Zeke sharing the load.

Which is what many of us said upthread.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They didn't need to pay $4M for a guy to get a few short yardage carries and a guy that can block.

Apparently they did.

I think Zeke has a role - I mean they did use Harris quite a bit last season, and everyone was waiting for the Pats to sign a vet all preseason.

I don’t see Zeke as a tremendous threat because I baked in other backs taking snaps from Stevenson already.

If Zeke does take most of the goal-line work and some two minute drill work it puts a dent in Stevenson’s value of course. I still see him getting decent TD and reception numbers anyway though since he’s an all around back.

I said earlier this knocks Stevenson down a few slots, going from strong RB2 to mid-weak RB2 - with RB1 upside.

Agreed. And I think this is what some of us have already said.

I don’t understand the disconnect here.

It definitely caps RS ceiling. His floor seems pretty safe.

I’d still like to know who projected RS for 2000+/15 as @Anarchy99 asserted previously.

 

[humpback]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

Seems that he thinks he's pretty good but not really good then, no? He hasn't ridden him pretty hard, and he just went out and signed another proven RB.

I mean, if you really think about it, the only times they've ever really ridden their RBs hard have been when they've brought in older veterans from other teams- Antowain Smith at age 28, Corey Dillon at age 30, and LaGarrette Blount at age 30. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that they may intend on riding Zeke into the ground and using Stevenson more in the White role.

They just signed Zeke in mid-August because Strong, Harris and Montgomery aren’t cutting it and you think they are going to use him as their workhorse? The Pats had no choice but to sign a veteran RB like Zeke or Fournette but IMO it is not because of concerns about Stevenson but because after him the cupboard was pretty bare…the Zeke signing was not part of some masterplan but because they needed a compliment to Stevenson that is a functional NFL-level RB…now, I do think Zeke will be a solid piece of the puzzle because that is the smart way to play football in today’s NFL and the Pats have always liked their multiple RBs but if Zeke is being used as much as Stevenson an offense that I already think is borderline subpar will be worse.

Don't put words in my mouth. I said it's "not out of the realm of possibilities", that's very different than saying I think they are going to use him as their workhorse. I don't think they are, but there is a non-zero chance, and they have done that several times in the past.

I understand why you think they signed Zeke, but you obviously have no idea what their actual reason is (nor do any of us). They certainly had a choice to not sign him, they could have signed any number of "functional NFL-level RBs", most of which would have been better for RS's outlook IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They certainly had a choice to not sign him, they could have signed any number of "functional NFL-level RBs", most of which would have been better for RS's outlook IMO.

They also had a choice to sign younger receiving backs and didn’t.

I disagree that a Cook or Hunt would have been better for RS outlook, and certainly not a Fournette.

I’m not sure who this plethora of other capable but lesser RB you see as available was though - last I looked at the list of FA it’s not particularly impressive outside those 3, and the Pats particularly needed a short yardage back because that’s an area RS struggled.

I certainly don’t see that on the list of FA RB.

IMO Zeke is the best back they could have brought in for RS shareholders. He’s on a 1 year deal, too.

I expect RS to be what he was last year - and hopefully with more longevity thanks to Zeke being the battering ram.

 

[Anarchy99]

They didn't need to pay $4M for a guy to get a few short yardage carries and a guy that can block.

Apparently they did.

I think Zeke has a role - I mean they did use Harris quite a bit last season, and everyone was waiting for the Pats to sign a vet all preseason.

I don’t see Zeke as a tremendous threat because I baked in other backs taking snaps from Stevenson already.

If Zeke does take most of the goal-line work and some two minute drill work it puts a dent in Stevenson’s value of course. I still see him getting decent TD and reception numbers anyway though since he’s an all around back.

I said earlier this knocks Stevenson down a few slots, going from strong RB2 to mid-weak RB2 - with RB1 upside.

Agreed. And I think this is what some of us have already said.

I don’t understand the disconnect here.

It definitely caps RS ceiling. His floor seems pretty safe.

I’d still like to know who projected RS for 2000+/15 as @Anarchy99 asserted previously.

I can't remember the who's and the where's . . . it may not even been here. I watch a bunch of YouTube channels, podcasts, online articles, tweets, radio, tv, local guys, national guys, beat guys . . . their argument was that without Harris, Stevenson would inherit the workload and he would be in line for 325 carries and 75 receptions. The math was solid, but the logic not so much. Most people felt they would either bring in someone else or bump up the workload of the rookies from last year. But I remember a couple of people suggest he could be the fantasy #1 RB for the season.

 

[Boston]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

Seems that he thinks he's pretty good but not really good then, no? He hasn't ridden him pretty hard, and he just went out and signed another proven RB.

I mean, if you really think about it, the only times they've ever really ridden their RBs hard have been when they've brought in older veterans from other teams- Antowain Smith at age 28, Corey Dillon at age 30, and LaGarrette Blount at age 30. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that they may intend on riding Zeke into the ground and using Stevenson more in the White role.

They just signed Zeke in mid-August because Strong, Harris and Montgomery aren’t cutting it and you think they are going to use him as their workhorse? The Pats had no choice but to sign a veteran RB like Zeke or Fournette but IMO it is not because of concerns about Stevenson but because after him the cupboard was pretty bare…the Zeke signing was not part of some masterplan but because they needed a compliment to Stevenson that is a functional NFL-level RB…now, I do think Zeke will be a solid piece of the puzzle because that is the smart way to play football in today’s NFL and the Pats have always liked their multiple RBs but if Zeke is being used as much as Stevenson an offense that I already think is borderline subpar will be worse.

Don't put words in my mouth. I said it's "not out of the realm of possibilities", that's very different than saying I think they are going to use him as their workhorse. I don't think they are, but there is a non-zero chance, and they have done that several times in the past.

I understand why you think they signed Zeke, but you obviously have no idea what their actual reason is (nor do any of us). They certainly had a choice to not sign him, they could have signed any number of "functional NFL-level RBs", most of which would have been better for RS's outlook IMO.

I guess I misunderstood you…what have they done in the past?

 

[humpback]

I don't have the time or the energy to keep the pot stirred today,

Not sure what this means.

IIRC RS was also banged up at the end of the year. Might that have contributed to his lower usage?

You're not going to like this, but there's a decent chance that his fumbles contributed to his lower usage. He coughed it up on 1st and goal from the 5 with under a minute left vs. Cincy (his 2nd fumble of the game), essentially costing them the game and crippling their playoff chances. The next (final) two games he only had 14 carries combined (and fumbled one of those) vs. 22 for Harris.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

They didn't need to pay $4M for a guy to get a few short yardage carries and a guy that can block.

Apparently they did.

I think Zeke has a role - I mean they did use Harris quite a bit last season, and everyone was waiting for the Pats to sign a vet all preseason.

I don’t see Zeke as a tremendous threat because I baked in other backs taking snaps from Stevenson already.

If Zeke does take most of the goal-line work and some two minute drill work it puts a dent in Stevenson’s value of course. I still see him getting decent TD and reception numbers anyway though since he’s an all around back.

I said earlier this knocks Stevenson down a few slots, going from strong RB2 to mid-weak RB2 - with RB1 upside.

Agreed. And I think this is what some of us have already said.

I don’t understand the disconnect here.

It definitely caps RS ceiling. His floor seems pretty safe.

I’d still like to know who projected RS for 2000+/15 as @Anarchy99 asserted previously.

I can't remember the who's and the where's . . . it may not even been here. I watch a bunch of YouTube channels, podcasts, online articles, tweets, radio, tv, local guys, national guys, beat guys . . . their argument was that without Harris, Stevenson would inherit the workload and he would be in line for 325 carries and 75 receptions. The math was solid, but the logic not so much. Most people felt they would either bring in someone else or bump up the workload of the rookies from last year. But I remember a couple of people suggest he could be the fantasy #1 RB for the season.

There were a lot of people super high on him, you’re not incorrect.
I was high on him - nowhere near those numbers of course - and still am, but the Zeke signing surely makes me reassess. I think it knocks him down at least a round in redraft and arguably two, but it hardly kills his value (I know you didn’t really say that).

 

[humpback]

Here is a question...do you think BB thinks Stevenson is pretty good or really good? That is a very basic question, but it most likely holds the key to his usage because in the 20+ years BB has been the HC of the Pats I cannot think of one time an offensive player that we considered very good at the time was under-utilized in his offense...if anything he rode them pretty hard...Dillon, Moss, Gronk, Welker, Edelman (when fully healthy) and Troy Brown are the players I would put in this category, and they were all used extensively when they were at their peak and in all fairness only one of them was a RB although you can probably put Antowain Smith in 2001 on this list...if BB thinks Stevenson is that level of a player, I would think this pattern would continue especially when you look at the fact that the other surrounding weapons on the offense are pretty average.

Seems that he thinks he's pretty good but not really good then, no? He hasn't ridden him pretty hard, and he just went out and signed another proven RB.

I mean, if you really think about it, the only times they've ever really ridden their RBs hard have been when they've brought in older veterans from other teams- Antowain Smith at age 28, Corey Dillon at age 30, and LaGarrette Blount at age 30. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that they may intend on riding Zeke into the ground and using Stevenson more in the White role.

They just signed Zeke in mid-August because Strong, Harris and Montgomery aren’t cutting it and you think they are going to use him as their workhorse? The Pats had no choice but to sign a veteran RB like Zeke or Fournette but IMO it is not because of concerns about Stevenson but because after him the cupboard was pretty bare…the Zeke signing was not part of some masterplan but because they needed a compliment to Stevenson that is a functional NFL-level RB…now, I do think Zeke will be a solid piece of the puzzle because that is the smart way to play football in today’s NFL and the Pats have always liked their multiple RBs but if Zeke is being used as much as Stevenson an offense that I already think is borderline subpar will be worse.

Don't put words in my mouth. I said it's "not out of the realm of possibilities", that's very different than saying I think they are going to use him as their workhorse. I don't think they are, but there is a non-zero chance, and they have done that several times in the past.

I understand why you think they signed Zeke, but you obviously have no idea what their actual reason is (nor do any of us). They certainly had a choice to not sign him, they could have signed any number of "functional NFL-level RBs", most of which would have been better for RS's outlook IMO.

I guess I misunderstood you…what have they done in the past?

It's right there in the quote above- they brought in older veteran RBs and gave them a big workload.

 

[Boston]

I am probably the outlier but Strong being good is what scares me most about Stevenson…if he is legit than he would most likely own that Faulk-Vereen-White role…with him being legit the receptions are not as accessible…without him it is just Stevenson and Zeke and as far as a Patriots backfield goes you are not gonna do any better than that as far as opportunity goes.