Soulfly3
Footballguy
3.6ypc and a lack of vision per those that did watch the game.
What was impressive exactly?
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RB RJ Harvey, DEN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
3.6ypc and a lack of vision per those that did watch the game.
What was impressive exactly?
Football Jones
Footballguy
Don't get too excited about Harvey. Dobbins couldn't find his helmet...
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
While there is some truth to that, having blinders on is also a fault. So, can Harvey correct some of this? Or is vision a natural ability, not taught.Jesus. Some of these takes are ridicules
Vision is more than just seeing the opportunity at the line - which is as much recognizing the blockers and their leverage as it is seeing the seam itself, in other words recognizing the seam that will be open when they get there - and then having minimal reaction time to seeing the opportunity and adjusting their path to get into the seam as quickly as it is open.
If a RB does not have this skill naturally, it takes an extraordinary amount of time to get enough repetition to engrain it into muscle memory. It’s rare to see a RB overcome this flaw. It’s not like teaching patience to allow blocks to set up, which is just adjusting their timing as the approach the POA.
Harvey started. Dobbins came in for one catch and they went back to Harvey for three full posessions.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
That he was really quick and explosive running into tacklers.
Truebluey
Footballguy
My perception is that usually those who start preseason games are the backups. This would make me more secure in drafting Dobbins.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It depends on a team by team basis. Denver had Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton starting in this game and it’s safe to say they will also be starting when week 1 comes around.
Normally I would agree except the rest of the starters were in the game with Harvey. Nix included.
When Nix left, so did Harvey. I think that speaks volumes.
Football Jones
Footballguy
The helmet story is probably true. Either way, you shouldn't assume anything with Payton, especially in their first preseason game. Everybody is a Joker in his world. Great coach, but notoriously hard to read.
As far as Harvey, I'm a little surprised he's got such a big following among FFers. His draft status and destination obviously helped (rightly so). I think he's going to be one of those guys who never lives up to the hype, but it won't be for a lack of opportunity.
As far as Harvey, I'm a little surprised he's got such a big following among FFers. His draft status and destination obviously helped (rightly so). I think he's going to be one of those guys who never lives up to the hype, but it won't be for a lack of opportunity.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Yeah definitely makes more sense to base it on who is playing with the obvious starters, rather than simply who started.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Let's see come September when it counts.
Skipdog77
Footballguy
Not a surprise Dobbins didnt start or play much. Many veteran RBs, especially those with a history of injury like Dobbins, dont play much in the preseason.
Not saying Harvey isn't going to be the #1, but there could be other reasons why it played out the way it did.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think having any strong take, positive or negative, is being way presumptuous based on depth charts, playing time or YPC at this stage. This is a backfield worth investing in if you get it right, but trying to figure it out at this stage may cost more draft capital than I'm willing to spend.Jesus. Some of these takes are ridicules
Banger
Footballguy
You have to pick your offenses and situations and hope they work out. I like the coach rb philosophy for fantasy and not scared of Dobbins. Definitely looking to land him on my teams.I think having any strong take, positive or negative, is being way presumptuous based on depth charts, playing time or YPC at this stage. This is a backfield worth investing in if you get it right, but trying to figure it out at this stage may cost more draft capital than I'm willing to spend.Jesus. Some of these takes are ridicules
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I disagree in various scenarios.
Dobbins needs reps in this offense as much as Harvey does. That is the situation I disagree. If it is a vet and he has been on the team for some time... sure.
With that being said, RJ Harvey's vision sucks. I didn't see it at first glance or relate it to anything specific but... he is a FCS guy and is used to beating everyone with his speed. He will be carry % contingent on what he does this year and while I want shares of an offensive line like Denver... I am just not sold on him. 8th round redraft capital, maybe I am interested just from a volume perspective but his ceiling is capped if he is going to bounce every run outside.
If this is truly his running style in the league and throughout preseason... I will take Dobbins at a later ADP and look to trade him to the Harvey owner.
Not sold on him for Dynasty. Much better backs to own than him (poster child for drafting situation over talent) and certainly 3 to 4 WRs Id rather own. He wasn't a 1st round player and has grown to become one... I don't see it.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Just when you thought Dobbins was the perfect cover...
Agree. But, as I said earlier, I think it speaks volumes he was out there with Nix on multiple series.
If there were concerns about his pass pro, maybe Nix isn't out there more than one series. That wasn't the case.
Jeanty didn't look good at all either. Don't think anyone is dropping him too much.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Benjamin Allbright said that Dobbins was supposed to start but couldn’t find his helmet. Now he could be trying to save face because he’s been very bold in his assertion Dobbins is the clear cut starter. But it would be pretty funny if we’re doing all this speculation on who is starting and who is playing with who and it’s all because someone misplaced their helmet.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I'm trying not to overthink it. Sean Payton drafts RB early, RB gets decent amount of work.
Team run blocks very well. Team throws to RB quite a bit.
Team run blocks very well. Team throws to RB quite a bit.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Treveyon > Harvey. Thanks.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Many college RBs do that at first. They just need to learn that college speed isn't nfl speed.
Marauder
Footballguy
Of course that's true. I haven't looked back at all the recent posts, but is anyone saying Harvey > Treveyon? I don't think anyone believes that.Treveyon > Harvey. Thanks.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Just a playful jab at Instinct who just took Harvey immediately before I took Henderson in League Uno. End of the year points, really could go either way. For a million dollars I'd lean Henderson. All my opinion of course.Of course that's true. I haven't looked back at all the recent posts, but is anyone saying Harvey > Treveyon? I don't think anyone believes that.Treveyon > Harvey. Thanks.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
I think Cecil Lammey covers the Browns. Has anyone asked him how he sees the RB situation in Denver playing out? I have been taking the both (not in the same league) just to cover my exposure but Cecil's opinion carries a lot of weight with me.
If he gets back to me, I'll share here.
If he gets back to me, I'll share here.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Correct, all rookies simply need to go through adjustment period especially with the level of talent in NFL. This site offers positives and negatives on Harvey's preseason debut.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Pretty sure I get where you are going with Cecil... but this made me
.Every rush and target from yesterday; stop me if I m getting annoying
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
Nice compilation.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I assume it's Dobbins 1a to open with a runway for Harvey to earn the 1a role when he proves capable. The variable beyond the obvious, health, is when / if he proves that. Make that projection and I think it becomes much easier to slot both on your priority list.
I've got Dobbins on a couple dynasty leagues with weak RB2 situations. I have a lot of options behind alphas (Bijan in 1, CMC in the other), but lack clarity. I think the Broncos early season schedule may result in several Dobbins starts while my depth chart shakes out and I may not start him again after week 4. While I think my redraft focus early in drafts will be RB, if it's not I'm keeping JK in mind for a similar purpose.
I think Harvey's the more difficult one to justify at his asking price, but it's because of how I anticipate they'll be deployed. At his current redraft rate, the person who is drafting him seems to be either starting him week 1 or pot committed to tailing the pick with one of Warren / Robinson / Mason a round later. That's the sorta thing I think more viable in a keeper, but I also suspect his price will be more expensive in such a format.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Current projection, first pass:
163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3
163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.
I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.
One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.
Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.
Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.
Well, I hope Harvey can hit those projections, I've got some shares, but why do you think Dobbins will see so many more carries, or more in general even? Do you think this follows a somewhat similar path to what happened in Tampa Bay last season?
Instinctive
Footballguy
I just modeled it after Payton's prior RB use. Maybe I'm overestimating Dobbins and he'll lose more to Estime/McLaughlin, but Dobbins was top 5 or so in explosive run rate last year behind a worse line. I doubt Harvey gets more carries.
Hard to project this guy. I do find it interesting just how low FBG has him ranked. They have Dobbins ranked ahead of him for the year.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I'm high on Harvey too, but his rookie year FF wise will be driven by his involvement in the passing game. Rookie year Reggie Bush had 119 targets (20.5% target share) and rookie year Kamara had 100 (18.7% target share) and what worries me is that Nix will take it himself and run the ball. Obviously I can see Payton scheming plays for Harvey, but I also think there's an improvisation component to Nix's game that Brees didn't have.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Last year Nix target info that seems relevant:
1. 28.7% of throws behind the line of scrimmage
2. 21.2% of throws to RBs even with 5.5 carries/game himself
Do you think he will run more or less than as a rookie?
Do you think Harvey will be able to capture more targets than Javonte (he was 13% last year I believe)? My totals do set up for 22% of throws to RBs before including any stuff to Estime or McLaughlin, so I could be convinced I'm a % or two high...but I think with an explosive RB and a QB learning more about the pocket at the NFl level that the 21.2% is more likely to go up than down. What do you think?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I used very similar logic to model J Gibbs and D Montgomery’s usage two years ago. Dan Campbell runs a decently similar scheme as Sean Payton, so I used stats from the Saints and also Payton’s time as OC with the Giants (Dayne/Barber) as a baseline. Came up with results that were in line with yours.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That was frothy wasn't it?2023 - 226-1416 rush -16 TDs 6.3 yds rush
2024 - 232-1577 rush -22 TDs 6.8 yds rush
just the facts
-Here is some more to put in your pipe and smoke or as some of you are displaying, perhaps a new bowl of rice krispies
Has anyone noticed some similarities to another RB that entered the NFL about 2 decades ago?
Harvey is 5-8 and about 200 lbs, he likely will add a little more bulk but I want to emphasize he ran a 4.40 at the combine, that's not slow
Harvey was taken 2nd round - 60th overall
MJD was also taken 2nd round - 60th overall by the Jax Jags in 2006
Drew was listed 5-7, Harvey 5-8 and you might think Drew was a better receiver in college coming out of UCLA but most of his stats pale in comparison to Harvey
It's getting old reading posts that are just rehashing or stuck in what the Broncos did in '23 with Russ Wilson and a rookie in '24 named Bo Nix who many thought was just gonna be average at best in the NFL. I can find the same downtrodden posts about Nix and how he wasn't gonna be much in Denver.
I put my projections out there but all I read are posts with things like all the Denver RBs will be uselessand it's just a dark cloudy forecast that doesn't allow for anything except crying over Javonte Williams never becoming much thru 2 different head coaches and multiple injuries in Denver. Redraft fans should care less, all that matters is 2025 so stop living in the past
-And anyone that puts a bunch of sound blurbs together, it's all coach speak and most beat writers just have to make up stories for their editors and sites right now, it's all crystal ball witchcraft so my advice as it has been for years is to not read a lot of windbag articles right now that won't matter when kickoff arrives in September. Camp reports however, we like those
Despite using conservative numbers in my projections, I see a potential workhorse RB for the Broncos and by Mid October people will be kicking themselves for not taking the plunge in the 5th-6th round, especially if you have frontline studs at WR that you grabbed in the early rounds. 60-80-100 yds total a week plus catches plus touchdowns, I'm not gonna keep beating the drum, I hope he falls down the boards further.
-Redraft '25 not Dynasty '28
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Please don't cry in Nov/Dec when you....
SanDawg
Footballguy
Man you make a compelling case. I've been thinking about him and Henderson and respective situations. I have been finding myself leaning the Harvey path due to mouths to feed, coaching, competition.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Don't overlook Trey Henderson
Just saying there are others
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).
Instinctive
Footballguy
5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.
