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RB Royce Freeman, LAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Snorkelson
- Start date
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
It's shtick. No one can be that dumb as to think that at this point.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Weed. And I agree with him. Freeman was a monster when he got his chance as a freshman and only injury slowed him. Loved him as a prospect, but he looks like the Jordan Howard of the team. I shouldn't complain, Penny looks like he has no shot at being the starter and Ronald Jones was given no chance at all. Lot of weird #### with the highly touted 2018 class.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
A holdJello_Biafra said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
It was an over rated class. that's why when people dog the 2019 class I don't listen. the 19 class doesnt have a Barkley but they sure have a couple of guys who can be like Chubb IMOJello_Biafra said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
last years class is loaded.
barkely - stud
Chubb - stud
Sony Mike - 2 down stud
The top3 WR - Ridley/DJ Moore Courtland Sutton all look like future starters WR2
I like how Rashad Penny looked, he should be better this season
Ron Jones - maybe a new coach will help
Baker Mayfield & Lamar Jackson- excellent 2nd round value picks
sleeper WR types - Miller, Pettis, James Washington
Guice - got hurt before he got started - like him alot
Kerryon - looked like the best lions RB since sanders.....
This class was absolutely loaded.... not even mentioning guys like Nyhiem Hines and Calloway, Keke Coutee
Not to mention we actually know Sony has the 3 down ability, he was merely used as a 2 down back.
As for Freeman, he reminds me a bit of Ingram. Before Ingram was a stud, he was considered a bust for three years. And yet people continue to write off guys after one season. Before the high ankle sprain, Freeman was a league leader in yards after contact. At some point in his career he's going to get to use that talent. It could come as early as 2019 with the new staff.
Nobody in this class has Chubb-like upside. I would take Guice over all these guys, too. That's not to say none of them can be productive RBs. But none of them hold a candle as prospects to Chubb or Guice, and we now have the benefit of knowing Chubb is NFL proven.
You should listen to people you trust (personally I'm a Waldman fan). It seems universal that the 2019 class is weak at the top, but there are a lot of RBBC-type guys you can pick up in the 2nd round. Good class for depth. But more importantly, this class is loaded at WR. Don't try to force 2019 RBs, just take the low hanging WR fruit. There are going to be some studs in this class. It sounds like that's not what your teams need, so work some draft day trades when the rookie hype is strong.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
None of the RBs in the 2019 class are even close to Barkley (obviously) and none are even close to Chubb, Guice or Michel as prospects either. I'm not sure how 2018 was over-rated (which was already addressed above and many times before) - it was one of the better rookies classes in my 15+ years doing dynasty leagues. Kerryon Johnson also looked very good before getting injured and Lindsay was a surprise productive rookie, and Freeman and Penny all showed well but did not see heavy volume yet. Everything discussion about this class of RBs starts with "If he lands in KC..." that tells me right there all we need to know.
2018 also saw some QBs come out with massive fantasy upside. Some may not work out but there should be at least 3 QB1s down the road and potentially 4 or 5.
This 2019 class will hopefully end up producing better WRs than last year but we saw some potential there as well and rookie WRs always require some patience before the book is written.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
As to the topic while I've been a big Lindsay supporter all along I still like Freeman's upside as well - I think he'd be a great buy low candidate. It wasn't like he looked bad, it was just that Lindsay looked better - and sometimes rookies develop differently even at RB. It would be far from shocking if Freeman surpassed Lindsay next season (although I'm not predicting that).
Lindsay looked head and shoulders better than Freeman this year. He was much more explosive and always looked like he had a chance to take it to the house every time he touched the ball. Freeman looked like a slow plodder next to Lindsay. Freeman did always seem to get positive yards but nothing explosive at all. I think he will still have a role as they try and keep Lindsay fresh all year but Lindsay should dominate touches as he is the much more explosive player.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
No one could forsee phil lindsay coming....however when the buzz started preseason you should of grabbed lindsay off the wire....he was free
Pwingles
Footballguy
While definitely true in this case, there are dozens of similar threads every year, and obviously very few are accurate.
I was fortunate enough in one league to grab him, but i happened to A. have a roster spot, and B. draft Freeman. So it was an attempt to get whatever value was going to shake out of a specific backfield, but if i didnt have a roster spot, i wouldve faded for sure since i took freeman at the back end of rd 1
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I did in all 10 of my dynasty leagues, spent the entire years BBIDs on him. Totally worth it!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I picked up Lindsey off the WW in a league with my best team and dropped him before he started going off.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
finfansteve
Footballguy
If I owned him in any of my dynasty leagues I’d be looking to sell high as I don’t think this level of success will continue for him, especially with a new regime coming in to coach the broncos
The problem I have had is that nobody else wants to "take a chance" on Lindsay. I have put him on the trade block to see if I could get something to help my team (I also have Chubb, Kerryon, and Aaron Jones) elsewhere but nobody is even making low ball offers. I think he is a tough guy to trade and I don't see how you will be able to sell high. You may be able to get even or slightly under value but that seems to be a stretch at this point too.finfansteve said:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I don't know about "surpassed", but I do think Lindsay may have trouble staying on the field and the Broncos could end up dialing back his touches to keep him healthy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think there's surely a wide range of possibilities in this backfield with a new coaching staff. I think Lindsay looked much better last season, but a defensive minded head coach may prefer and bigger pounding RB (although Freeman doesn't really play to his size imo and is more of a finesse back).
It is a relative term. While you might think you are entitled to a certain value for him, the market is what truly dictates his value and, realistically, whatever you could get for him now will indeed be high compared to what you'll get for him if the new staff favors Freeman. I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen, but just using that scenario to illustrate how selling high works.
Of course if you feel confident he's going to retain his job and his current market value is not fair, then sell one of your other, more marketable, RBs. If you don't feel confident enough to do that, then you can hardly fault other people for not wanting to "take a chance" on Lindsay.
I don't really see as selling him for peanuts now is "selling high" even if he craters. There is also the point that keeping him and taking the risk is worth more than selling him "high" even if he does crater. Getting waiver wire fodder or a really late pick means it is worth keeping him and taking the risk that Freeman gets the job. Lindsay showed too well to just give him away even with the risk of him losing the primary job.
Yet, if he craters then selling now is exactly what selling high is. You bought a penny stock. It's currently at an all time high of, say $2. You might think it is worth $10, but if it gets bad news then it'll be down to $0.50 and when people look at the charts they'll say people who sold for $2 sold high. They won't say, that guy sold a $10 stock for $2 because it never was a $10 stock. And I'm sure you can do better than peanuts for him right now. Placing him on the trading block in January isn't nearly as effective as putting together package deals and contacting owners directly.
However, if you're so confident he's going to keep the job, then sell one of your other RB assets. If you're not confident enough to do that then his market value must actually be fair. While not exactly your situation, this reminds me of a typical dynasty conversation:
Manager: What is wrong with people? Player X is easily worth an RB2 price but everyone says he's too risky.
Assistant Coach: Why are you trying to sell him then?
Manager: I don't need him. I've got Player Y as my RB2 and I've got holes to fill at other positions.
Assistant Coach: Then sell Player Y and keep Player X.
Manager: No way. Player X is too risky.
Assistant Coach:
I basically agree with all that but you still have to look at your specific case. For me, I have no problem keeping all 4 RB's and have shopped all of them but don't like any of the low ball deals people have offered thinking I have to part with one of them. The one thing I disagree with is that selling now for $2 instead of later for $0.50 isn't really "selling high". It's selling better than his bottom price but it's not "selling high".Yet, if he craters then selling now is exactly what selling high is. You bought a penny stock. It's currently at an all time high of, say $2. You might think it is worth $10, but if it gets bad news then it'll be down to $0.50 and when people look at the charts they'll say people who sold for $2 sold high. They won't say, that guy sold a $10 stock for $2 because it never was a $10 stock. And I'm sure you can do better than peanuts for him right now. Placing him on the trading block in January isn't nearly as effective as putting together package deals and contacting owners directly.
However, if you're so confident he's going to keep the job, then sell one of your other RB assets. If you're not confident enough to do that then his market value must actually be fair. While not exactly your situation, this reminds me of a typical dynasty conversation:
Manager: What is wrong with people? Player X is easily worth an RB2 price but everyone says he's too risky.
Assistant Coach: Why are you trying to sell him then?
Manager: I don't need him. I've got Player Y as my RB2 and I've got holes to fill at other positions.
Assistant Coach: Then sell Player Y and keep Player X.
Manager: No way. Player X is too risky.
Assistant Coach:
There is also something to be said for the approach of this penny stock is worth $10 in my eyes that I can sell at $2 now for essentially no overall team improvement or keep him on the 60% chance he continues to improve and improve to be worth $10 in return. Since I can't really improve my team with the $2 move now it is worth the 60% chance to keep him and if he fails and goes to $0.50 it really doesn't hurt my team that I didn't take the crappy $2 offer that wouldn't have helped anyway.
Just because you can sell higher now than you can later if things go terribly wrong doesn't mean selling now for basically nothing is the right thing (even if it ends up a better return in hindsight).
FWIW, he was a 24 year old rookie. Guice will be on the last year of his rookie contract when he's 24. I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement from age 24 to age 25.Lindsay isn’t going to suddenly fade or suck. He proved himself over the entire season. Players can get better and stronger after their rookie years. From reading these threads you’d think that is impossible with Lindsay
But the main problems are (1) that different systems can harm or benefit a RB depending on their style and (2) it doesn't matter how good a guy is if he's not getting snaps. Nobody is saying Lindsay is bad or will get worse. There's just concern that the new offense might not fit him as well or that the new staff will favor Freeman. These are legitimate risks.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This was the only point I was trying to make as well. Although I do think he could potentially improve from age 24 to 25 by getting stronger and more fit as NFL training facilities and programs are better than even the upper echelon college programs - but that's a minor quibble.
I'd also add that it wouldn't necessarily even take Lindsay getting worse for more of a time share to develop, as a major improvement from Freeman could force that as well.
I'd still lean towards Lindsay if I had to choose between one or the other straight up but a new year and especially a new caching staff make the situation a little murkier.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
As long as Lindsay is on the field and averaging over 5.5 per carry, he's not going anywhere. Now if his body breaks down that's a different story, but he's at no more risk to do that than anyone else in the league. His size isn't a death sentence. It wasn't for CJ, Warrick Dunn, or Ray Rice.
It really goes to show how different people and different leagues value players. Personally, I rank those RB's Chubb>Lindsay>Johnson>Jones.
I do too but there are salary implications (Chubb & Lindsay are $15, Johnson is $10, and Jones is $1) that affect the value somewhat. I have put all up for various trades and get low ball back. We can keep a total of 15 players (full IDP) so rarely does someone keep 4 at one position so I think I am getting offers based on the impression I have to get rid of one of them. That plays into it too.
A wrist injury that won't take away any of his speed or quickness which was what made him so much better than Freeman this year.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Exactly a freak wrist injury isn't a big deal to a RB. Its not a long term concern at all
* As long as he is able to participate in OTAs, training camp, etc. His arm is going to be stiff and weak for quite a while when he gets out of the cast, but I agree that rehab should bring him back to 100%. It's merely a question of how long that takes.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
where is his value? I was offered Freeman for what may end up being a late 2020 1st and 2020 3rd I'm thinking that's too much, especially when 2020 has some pretty solid RBS. for all we know Denver could be drafting one to take freeman's place!
That feels like a lot to give up for a guy who certainly doesn't look like the best RB on his own team right now.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
If I were to give up a pick I would say 2020 first if I were RB needy. If I wanted to place value on him for 2019 I would say end of 2019 1st round. At this point I couldn't give you an exact number. After the draft I may be able to narrow it down. It may end up early mid 2nd after draft.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
You should be able to own him everywhere you want if you are willing to pay that price.
Not much but then I comped him to Zac Stacy entering the league and after seeing him play in the league for a year feel great about that comp.
I'd have to have Lindsay and/or a major need at RB to give a 2019 second and only way I'd give a 2020 second was if I owned Lindsay and about nothing else at RB and despite that limitation was still fancying my team as a contender.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I would love to hear freeman dropping some weight this offseason. I think switching to zone blocking scheme will bode well for him as well. Hoping to hear later in the summer that he’s reporting at 225 rather than 238.
Is that not what they utilized last year? I know Musgrave's root's are from the Kubiak tree, same as the new OC, and both use zone blocking scheme.
The Munchak hire could be huge for their OL development, IMO was one of best hires this offseason and potentially huge loss to Steelers.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Perhaps- I looked through Musgraves history and while I did see the same thing his stops along the way don’t scream the same scheme or play calling as Kubiak/Shannon vein, so I wasn’t sure.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Every team uses a combination of zone and man blocking.
I saw a stat awhile back stating that Kubiak ran more outside zone than any other coach in that time frame. He ran it 42% so with inside zone maybe as high as 70% of the running plays? It also tells me there is a wide variety of plays being run across the league.
Munchak is a great Oline coach so that should be seen as a upgrade I think.
I saw a stat awhile back stating that Kubiak ran more outside zone than any other coach in that time frame. He ran it 42% so with inside zone maybe as high as 70% of the running plays? It also tells me there is a wide variety of plays being run across the league.
Munchak is a great Oline coach so that should be seen as a upgrade I think.
