RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (3 Viewers)

[Tanner9919]

You can count the RBs with Barkley's upside on 1 hand, and at least 1 of those fingers have been chopped off(Derrick Henry) saying Barkley has top-5 potential isn't a bold statement whatsoever, he has RB1 overall potential. He's considered "just" an RB1 because of all those risks you alluded to. 

Again, Devontae Booker, who is a below average backup RB, has been a top-15 RB in Barkley's absence. That is Barkley's absolute floor. Booker has averaged 19 touches per game since Barkley went down, while Barkley had 22 and 18 his last 2 games before injury.  If you consider RB1 to be top-12, as most do. I don't know how anyone can say Barkley won't be that, unless they are basically just saying, "he'll get hurt, he always gets hurt, screw that guy." Which, I mean, you are welcome to do, but its likely a losing strategy. 

I have Barkley as the RB8 going forward this season, and despite how I'm coming off in this reply, I think I'm probably being a little pessimistic. I do fully agree that he is a bigger injury risk than most RBs, but I also think that is baked into his price. 

was/is he on 'roids? dude has a lot of injuries for a young 20-something RB. also has beyond big quads. playing devil's advocate. I think RB8 means you're being WAY overly optimistic, not pessimistic. what 7 RBs do you have ahead of him and let's say we make a list to RB12, what 4 RBs do you have immediately behind him?? 

I wouldn't touch quadzilla over any of the following:

d. henderson, Taylor, James Robinson, Michael Carter, J. Williams, AJ dillon ( a. jones is going to be down for quite a while), D. Cook, D. Booker, Zeke, mark ingram, james conner, ekeler, harris..to name just a few.

yes, d. booker will have more yards the remainder of the season than quadzilla.at what point do the hapless g-men just shut him down for the season to prevent FURTHER INJURY.dude's a potato chip. a chandelier. at this point quadzilla is a has-been. he'll never return to form. he's the new one year wonder child. it's over. his days in N Y are likely over. NJ has lemon laws for new cars that are just plain lemons. they should have something similar for giants RBs

 

[Weebs210]

What did I just read

 

[ConstruxBoy]

was/is he on 'roids? dude has a lot of injuries for a young 20-something RB. also has beyond big quads. playing devil's advocate. I think RB8 means you're being WAY overly optimistic, not pessimistic. what 7 RBs do you have ahead of him and let's say we make a list to RB12, what 4 RBs do you have immediately behind him?? 

I wouldn't touch quadzilla over any of the following:

d. henderson, Taylor, James Robinson, Michael Carter, J. Williams, AJ dillon ( a. jones is going to be down for quite a while), D. Cook, D. Booker, Zeke, mark ingram, james conner, ekeler, harris..to name just a few.

yes, d. booker will have more yards the remainder of the season than quadzilla.at what point do the hapless g-men just shut him down for the season to prevent FURTHER INJURY.dude's a potato chip. a chandelier. at this point quadzilla is a has-been. he'll never return to form. he's the new one year wonder child. it's over. his days in N Y are likely over. NJ has lemon laws for new cars that are just plain lemons. they should have something similar for giants RBs

Sir, this is a Wendy's

 

[TheWinz]

I love numbers, and FF is all about them.
2018 + 2019 = 3469 yards, 143 catches, 23 TD's in 29 games played = 21.65 PPR fantasy points average
2020 + 2021 = 419 yards, 20 catches, 3 TD's in 7 games played = 11.42 PPR fantasy points average

Before you say, hey, wait a minute, the numbers are skewed because he got hurt early on in 2 of those 7 games in 2020 and 2021, just remember, you would've had him in your starting lineup.  But for argument's sake, let's say you had a crystal ball and knew to bench him in those 2 games he got hurt.  Now you are playing with 5 games and 15.24 PPR fantasy points average.  Of the top scoring RB's this year, here is how they compare (and remember, this time, I am NOT using my crystal ball for these guys, so if they got hurt during their games, it sucks to be them, and you for starting them that week):

Derrick Henry - 191.35 in 8 = 23.92 pts
Jonathan Taylor - 213.00 in 10 = 21.30 pts
Austin Ekeler - 179.30 in 9 = 19.92 pts
Christian McCaffrey - 99.10 in 5 = 19.82 pts
Alvin Kamara - 158.00 in 8 = 19.75 pts
Najee Harris - 176.30 in 9 = 19.59 pts
D'Andre Swift - 163.90 in 9 = 18.21 pts
Joe Mixon - 159.00 in 9 = 17.67 pts
Cordarrelle Patterson - 158.60 in 9 = 17.62 pts
Nick Chubb - 123.00 in 7 = 17.57 pts
Ezekiel Elliott - 157.30 in 9 = 17.48 pts
Kareem Hunt - 102.20 in 6 = 17.03 pts
Aaron Jones - 162.90 in 10 = 16.29 pts
James Robinson - 127.90 in 8 = 15.99 pts
Dalvin Cook - 111.70 in 7 = 15.96 pts
Devontae Booker since taking over in week 5 - 79.00 in 5 = 15.80 pts
Darrell Henderson - 139.70 in 9 = 15.52 pts
Leonard Fournette - 139.00 in 9 = 15.44 pts

So, even when he played and didn't get hurt, which was only 70% of the time in the last 2 years, he wouldn't even be top 20 in PPR.  I know I only listed 18, but let's not forget the guys who have filled in for a week or more (Darrel Williams averaged 17.80 in 5 starts, and D'Ernest Johnson averaged 23.75 in 2 starts, just to name a few).  And for those who say the sample size is too small, whose fault is that?  The guy that can't stay healthy.

I invite you to go on a "what if" journey with me for a moment.  Will Smith used his neuralyzer thingy on you, and you have no recollection of anything before 2020, nor do you have access to information before 2020.  How does Saquon look now?  Perhaps like an average RB that is injury-prone?

 

[travdogg]

I love numbers, and FF is all about them.
2018 + 2019 = 3469 yards, 143 catches, 23 TD's in 29 games played = 21.65 PPR fantasy points average
2020 + 2021 = 419 yards, 20 catches, 3 TD's in 7 games played = 11.42 PPR fantasy points average

Before you say, hey, wait a minute, the numbers are skewed because he got hurt early on in 2 of those 7 games in 2020 and 2021, just remember, you would've had him in your starting lineup.  But for argument's sake, let's say you had a crystal ball and knew to bench him in those 2 games he got hurt.  Now you are playing with 5 games and 15.24 PPR fantasy points average.  Of the top scoring RB's this year, here is how they compare (and remember, this time, I am NOT using my crystal ball for these guys, so if they got hurt during their games, it sucks to be them, and you for starting them that week):

Derrick Henry - 191.35 in 8 = 23.92 pts
Jonathan Taylor - 213.00 in 10 = 21.30 pts
Austin Ekeler - 179.30 in 9 = 19.92 pts
Christian McCaffrey - 99.10 in 5 = 19.82 pts
Alvin Kamara - 158.00 in 8 = 19.75 pts
Najee Harris - 176.30 in 9 = 19.59 pts
D'Andre Swift - 163.90 in 9 = 18.21 pts
Joe Mixon - 159.00 in 9 = 17.67 pts
Cordarrelle Patterson - 158.60 in 9 = 17.62 pts
Nick Chubb - 123.00 in 7 = 17.57 pts
Ezekiel Elliott - 157.30 in 9 = 17.48 pts
Kareem Hunt - 102.20 in 6 = 17.03 pts
Aaron Jones - 162.90 in 10 = 16.29 pts
James Robinson - 127.90 in 8 = 15.99 pts
Dalvin Cook - 111.70 in 7 = 15.96 pts
Devontae Booker since taking over in week 5 - 79.00 in 5 = 15.80 pts
Darrell Henderson - 139.70 in 9 = 15.52 pts
Leonard Fournette - 139.00 in 9 = 15.44 pts

So, even when he played and didn't get hurt, which was only 70% of the time in the last 2 years, he wouldn't even be top 20 in PPR.  I know I only listed 18, but let's not forget the guys who have filled in for a week or more (Darrel Williams averaged 17.80 in 5 starts, and D'Ernest Johnson averaged 23.75 in 2 starts, just to name a few).  And for those who say the sample size is too small, whose fault is that?  The guy that can't stay healthy.

I invite you to go on a "what if" journey with me for a moment.  Will Smith used his neuralyzer thingy on you, and you have no recollection of anything before 2020, nor do you have access to information before 2020.  How does Saquon look now?  Perhaps like an average RB that is injury-prone?

To be fair to Barkley, we were explicitly told by both the Giants and Barkley himself that he was going to be very eased in the 1st 2 weeks this year. I think many(perhaps most) owners sat him weeks 1-2. 

In the 3 games where everyone was starting him, he went for 12.6, 21.4, and 29.6. Suddenly that is 21.2 per game, which is right there with Jonathan Taylor, and pretty in line with 2018-2019 Barkley. 

 

[TheWinz]

To be fair to Barkley, we were explicitly told by both the Giants and Barkley himself that he was going to be very eased in the 1st 2 weeks this year. I think many(perhaps most) owners sat him weeks 1-2. 

In the 3 games where everyone was starting him, he went for 12.6, 21.4, and 29.6. Suddenly that is 21.2 per game, which is right there with Jonathan Taylor, and pretty in line with 2018-2019 Barkley. 

His sample size is only 7 games the last 2 years, and I did him the courtesy of removing 2 of them because he got hurt early on in those games.  Now you want to remove 2 more games, making the sample size only 3 in 2 years?  Why are you removing week 2 of this year?  Come on, man.  He played 58 snaps to Booker's 10.  Everyone would've started him, because he didn't get hurt the game prior, and, after all, he IS Saquon Barkley.  You are removing a 15-touch game because you are cherry picking.  I didn't cherry pick at all.  I actually removed the games he got hurt in, so I did whatever the opposite of cherry picking is.

Also, why did you say people would not have started him week 2 of last year?  He was fresh off a 12.6 point game, and was healthy.  He got hurt in game 2, so he 100% would've been in everyone's lineup (minus the crystal ball I talked about).  He also would've been in everyone's lineup in week 5 of this year, after his 29.6 in week 4.

Face it, in the last 2 years, he would've been in the starting lineups of EVERY Saquon owner for the 7 games he suited up, bringing his average down to 11.42 PPG.  No one benches Saquon when he suits up - he is Superman!

 

[Cobbler1]

His sample size is only 7 games the last 2 years, and I did him the courtesy of removing 2 of them because he got hurt early on in those games.  Now you want to remove 2 more games, making the sample size only 3 in 2 years?  Why are you removing week 2 of this year?  Come on, man.  He played 58 snaps to Booker's 10.  Everyone would've started him, because he didn't get hurt the game prior, and, after all, he IS Saquon Barkley.  You are removing a 15-touch game because you are cherry picking.  I didn't cherry pick at all.  I actually removed the games he got hurt in, so I did whatever the opposite of cherry picking is.

Also, why did you say people would not have started him week 2 of last year?  He was fresh off a 12.6 point game, and was healthy.  He got hurt in game 2, so he 100% would've been in everyone's lineup (minus the crystal ball I talked about).  He also would've been in everyone's lineup in week 5 of this year, after his 29.6 in week 4.

Face it, in the last 2 years, he would've been in the starting lineups of EVERY Saquon owner for the 7 games he suited up, bringing his average down to 11.42 PPG.  No one benches Saquon when he suits up - he is Superman!

Love numbers. Not sure what this post is meant to prove though? We all know Saquon has been hurt a ton over the last 2 years. Are you joining in on the argument that he is no longer an effective rb? Based off a 5 game sample at best? 3 game sample at worst? Does that check out logically?

 

[TheWinz]

Love numbers. Not sure what this post is meant to prove though? We all know Saquon has been hurt a ton over the last 2 years. Are you joining in on the argument that he is no longer an effective rb? Based off a 5 game sample at best? 3 game sample at worst? Does that check out logically?

I am not saying he is no longer an effective RB.  That makes him sound like he is a scrub and should be benched in favor or Devontae Booker.  Yes, I already showed with stats that Booker has been a better FF RB, but I am not a moron who thinks Booker is better.  What I am saying is the reason we have such a small sample size is because he can't stay upright.  I saw him run like a monster in his rookie season.  He was electric!  Best RB prospect to come out of college in years.  He was everything we expected, with over 2K on 350+ touches and 15 TD's.  He was only 21 and finished as RB2 in 2018.  There was this guy who finished right behind him at only 24 yrs old, so obviously at that age, he was still in his prime too.  His name was... Todd Gurley.  The following year, at age 25, Todd finished as RB14, then at 26 (just last year), he finished RB29.  Before his 27th birthday, he was a free agent hunting for a job.  Yes, I know Todd had a bone-on-bone thing going, but I was just using him as an example of the "what have you done for me lately" mindset.  The guy is 6 years younger than my son, and his career is over.

What we are failing to consider is that Saquon, while recovering from his injuries the past 2 years, has aged 2 years.  Healthy RB's age alot slower than injured ones.  Just ask those old-time RB's like Emmitt, LT, and Barry, who averaged the same amount of touches Saquon had in his rookie season, but they did it for a decade or more.  Saquon's body gave him just one season of 350+, then it said "no mas" at 269 in season 2, "no mas" at 25 in season 3, and "no mas" at 68 in season 4.  And if you don't like my analogy to a RB like Gurley because he had bone-on-bone issues, just remember, Gurley and Saquon both entered the NFL at 21, and at this same exact time in their careers (entering week 11 of their season 4) Gurley had 2,101 more yards and 26 more TD's, so comparing Saquon to Gurley is an insult to Gurley, not to Saquon, fantasy-wise of course.

I am drunk, so I am rambling on.  But the fact is, Saquon's stats are more comparable to a one-hit wonder than a long-term stud.  Also, what does it say about Saquon when you say 3 game sample at worst over a 2-year span?

 

[tigerz]

I am not saying he is no longer an effective RB.  That makes him sound like he is a scrub and should be benched in favor or Devontae Booker.  Yes, I already showed with stats that Booker has been a better FF RB, but I am not a moron who thinks Booker is better.  What I am saying is the reason we have such a small sample size is because he can't stay upright.  I saw him run like a monster in his rookie season.  He was electric!  Best RB prospect to come out of college in years.  He was everything we expected, with over 2K on 350+ touches and 15 TD's.  He was only 21 and finished as RB2 in 2018.  There was this guy who finished right behind him at only 24 yrs old, so obviously at that age, he was still in his prime too.  His name was... Todd Gurley.  The following year, at age 25, Todd finished as RB14, then at 26 (just last year), he finished RB29.  Before his 27th birthday, he was a free agent hunting for a job.  Yes, I know Todd had a bone-on-bone thing going, but I was just using him as an example of the "what have you done for me lately" mindset.  The guy is 6 years younger than my son, and his career is over.

What we are failing to consider is that Saquon, while recovering from his injuries the past 2 years, has aged 2 years.  Healthy RB's age alot slower than injured ones.  Just ask those old-time RB's like Emmitt, LT, and Barry, who averaged the same amount of touches Saquon had in his rookie season, but they did it for a decade or more.  Saquon's body gave him just one season of 350+, then it said "no mas" at 269 in season 2, "no mas" at 25 in season 3, and "no mas" at 68 in season 4.  And if you don't like my analogy to a RB like Gurley because he had bone-on-bone issues, just remember, Gurley and Saquon both entered the NFL at 21, and at this same exact time in their careers (entering week 11 of their season 4) Gurley had 2,101 more yards and 26 more TD's, so comparing Saquon to Gurley is an insult to Gurley, not to Saquon, fantasy-wise of course.

I am drunk, so I am rambling on.  But the fact is, Saquon's stats are more comparable to a one-hit wonder than a long-term stud.  Also, what does it say about Saquon when you say 3 game sample at worst over a 2-year span?

I'm not quite sure what point you are trying to make. We knew he was dealing with an injury this year when drafted and is coming back from an injury to potentially play this week. That puts a dent in his ceiling and potential but you agree that even with that, he's better than Booker even though Booker scored more FPG with your analysis. 

Just because he had a freak ankle injury accident this year, I don't think that is indicative that his body is breaking down... That was a freak accident, not a non-contact injury. He looked like he was doing better each game prior to that point. I think you are reaching here...

I also really don't think you can assume the guy is going to get 15 points at best because he had 15 points per game in your selective analysis. Too many more variables to consider. You don't know if Saquon was healthy would he have scored better than booker did in those games. I think a lot of us think he would have scored equal or better in those games. Don't think any amount of statistics can disprove that.

People use stats to draw conclusions but that's flawed. Just because numbers don't lie, doesn't mean that we can't draw incorrect conclusions or have an inaccurate sample. 

I see no reason why Barkley cannot score at least 15 points a game or better like Booker even though he averaged 11 points per game earlier. There's a lot of stuff that goes into this like team injuries, snaps played, offensive scheme, strength of schedule, plays called, number of guys in the box, etc so I don't you can conclude anything based off FP scored this year.

If Barkley gets less than 50% snaps and faces a tough D then yeah, he may score less FP but I wouldn't say he's a bust because of that... I bought him at today's price, not draft price. And I think it was a bargain because people thought he was done. What matters isn't 2020 or the earlier games in 2021. What matters is his value going forward. Not a given to be elite but not a given to be bust. He's a good back in a good situation with potential to be great and that's enough.

edit: and damn man, its 10:00 AM in the morning where I am. you start drinking early lol.

 

[Cobbler1]

I am not saying he is no longer an effective RB.  That makes him sound like he is a scrub and should be benched in favor or Devontae Booker.  Yes, I already showed with stats that Booker has been a better FF RB, but I am not a moron who thinks Booker is better.  What I am saying is the reason we have such a small sample size is because he can't stay upright.  I saw him run like a monster in his rookie season.  He was electric!  Best RB prospect to come out of college in years.  He was everything we expected, with over 2K on 350+ touches and 15 TD's.  He was only 21 and finished as RB2 in 2018.  There was this guy who finished right behind him at only 24 yrs old, so obviously at that age, he was still in his prime too.  His name was... Todd Gurley.  The following year, at age 25, Todd finished as RB14, then at 26 (just last year), he finished RB29.  Before his 27th birthday, he was a free agent hunting for a job.  Yes, I know Todd had a bone-on-bone thing going, but I was just using him as an example of the "what have you done for me lately" mindset.  The guy is 6 years younger than my son, and his career is over.

What we are failing to consider is that Saquon, while recovering from his injuries the past 2 years, has aged 2 years.  Healthy RB's age alot slower than injured ones.  Just ask those old-time RB's like Emmitt, LT, and Barry, who averaged the same amount of touches Saquon had in his rookie season, but they did it for a decade or more.  Saquon's body gave him just one season of 350+, then it said "no mas" at 269 in season 2, "no mas" at 25 in season 3, and "no mas" at 68 in season 4.  And if you don't like my analogy to a RB like Gurley because he had bone-on-bone issues, just remember, Gurley and Saquon both entered the NFL at 21, and at this same exact time in their careers (entering week 11 of their season 4) Gurley had 2,101 more yards and 26 more TD's, so comparing Saquon to Gurley is an insult to Gurley, not to Saquon, fantasy-wise of course.

I am drunk, so I am rambling on.  But the fact is, Saquon's stats are more comparable to a one-hit wonder than a long-term stud.  Also, what does it say about Saquon when you say 3 game sample at worst over a 2-year span?

Congrats on the boozing! Gurley would seem an outlier to me as he apparently had a chronic knee condition. My point here is the same as upthread. We know he’s had a couple really bad injuries. Knocking his production over time during these injury plagued seasons seems like double counting the injuries to me. We know he’s been hurt so the production hasn’t been there. We don’t know if he’s always going to be hurt or if he’s going to be a different back moving forward. Plenty of players have been deemed fragile until they’re not…

 

[TheWinz]

I'm not quite sure what point you are trying to make. We knew he was dealing with an injury this year when drafted and is coming back from an injury to potentially play this week. That puts a dent in his ceiling and potential but you agree that even with that, he's better than Booker even though Booker scored more FPG with your analysis. 

Just because he had a freak ankle injury accident this year, I don't think that is indicative that his body is breaking down... That was a freak accident, not a non-contact injury. He looked like he was doing better each game prior to that point. I think you are reaching here...

I also really don't think you can assume the guy is going to get 15 points at best because he had 15 points per game in your selective analysis. Too many more variables to consider. You don't know if Saquon was healthy would he have scored better than booker did in those games. I think a lot of us think he would have scored equal or better in those games. Don't think any amount of statistics can disprove that.

People use stats to draw conclusions but that's flawed. Just because numbers don't lie, doesn't mean that we can draw incorrect conclusions or have an inaccurate sample. 

I see no reason why Barkley cannot score at least 15 points a game or better like Booker even though he averaged 11 points per game earlier. There's a lot of stuff that goes into this like team injuries, snaps played, offensive scheme, strength of schedule, plays called, number of guys in the box, etc so I don't you can conclude anything based off FP scored this year.

If Barkley gets less than 50% snaps and faces a tough D then yeah, he may score less FP but I wouldn't say he's a bust because of that... I bought him at today's price, not draft price. And I think it was a bargain because people thought he was done. Not a given to be elite but not a given to be bust. He's a good back in a good situation with potential to be great and that's enough.

You have a few things right...

1)  I totally agree that stats DO lie, and I said Booker was inferior to him.
2)  He does have the potential to be great, and I said that.  He is Saquon, for christ sakes.

But you have a few things wrong...

1)  He didn't just have a freak ankle injury this year, as you suggested above.  He had a torn ACL after just 19 carries in 2020.  And the year prior?  He missed the last 3 games with an ankle sprain.  And in 2021, 54 carries and he hits the mat.  That's 3 SEPERATE injuries.
2) A good back?  yes          In a good situation?  I wouldn't say yes

As I said, he is Saquon friggin Barkley.  He is a physical specimen like Bo Jackson.  He is out of this world.  But so was Bo, and how long did he play?  

 

[travdogg]

His sample size is only 7 games the last 2 years, and I did him the courtesy of removing 2 of them because he got hurt early on in those games.  Now you want to remove 2 more games, making the sample size only 3 in 2 years?  Why are you removing week 2 of this year?  Come on, man.  He played 58 snaps to Booker's 10.  Everyone would've started him, because he didn't get hurt the game prior, and, after all, he IS Saquon Barkley.  You are removing a 15-touch game because you are cherry picking.  I didn't cherry pick at all.  I actually removed the games he got hurt in, so I did whatever the opposite of cherry picking is.

Also, why did you say people would not have started him week 2 of last year?  He was fresh off a 12.6 point game, and was healthy.  He got hurt in game 2, so he 100% would've been in everyone's lineup (minus the crystal ball I talked about).  He also would've been in everyone's lineup in week 5 of this year, after his 29.6 in week 4.

Face it, in the last 2 years, he would've been in the starting lineups of EVERY Saquon owner for the 7 games he suited up, bringing his average down to 11.42 PPG.  No one benches Saquon when he suits up - he is Superman!

Everyone definitely didn't start him in week 2, I know I didn't, and many Barkley owners on this board, and that I know, didn't. It was actually a pretty big surprise he had the workload he did in week 2, as there was a ton of talk from Barkley and Judge(or Garrett, I don't recall which) that he would still be limited that week. I'm minorly cherry picking, but its with a reason, not just to make Barkley look better. Those are the games with the most predictive value of what to expect going forward, if Barkley is healthy. 

I do think its silly to hold games players got hurt in against them in general. Sure it probably hurts the person who started them that week, but its not a useful or viable statistic to value in any way. Week 2 of 2020 and week 5 of this year 100% don't count, or matter, and holding those games against Barkley is much more cherry picking than anything I'm doing. 

 

[TheWinz]

Congrats on the boozing! Gurley would seem an outlier to me as he apparently had a chronic knee condition. My point here is the same as upthread. We know he’s had a couple really bad injuries. Knocking his production over time during these injury plagued seasons seems like double counting the injuries to me. We know he’s been hurt so the production hasn’t been there. We don’t know if he’s always going to be hurt or if he’s going to be a different back moving forward. Plenty of players have been deemed fragile until they’re not…

Thank you!  The booze tastes great.  The cans have pictures of Clydesdale's and Saint Bernard's on them (the christmas budweisers).  I only mentioned Gurley because I saw his name as I was cruising stats for Saquon.  The fact is, Gurley had a chronic condition, and still managed to stay on the field longer than Saquon through his first 4 seasons.  You can call Saquon's injuries 3 separate freak injuries all you want, but the fact is he has missed 21 out of a possible 57 games in his career because of them.

Up above, you said, "Plenty of players have been deemed fragile until they’re not…" I decided to put that to the test, to see how many awesome RB's have missed as much time in the first 4 years of their careers as Saquon has.  Here is the list (we know Saquon missed 21 due to injury, but the below players may have missed for other reasons, but I chose to ignore those):

Emmitt Smith - 2 games missed
Walter Payton - 1 game missed
Frank Gore - 5 games missed
Barry Sanders - 2 games missed
Adrian Peterson - 3 games missed
Curtis Martin - 4 games missed
LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 game missed
Jerome Bettis - 1 game missed
Eric Dickerson - 2 games missed
Tony Dorsett - 5 games missed

None of the top 10 yardage leaders of all time came anywhere close to missing 21 games in their first 4 seasons.  You said there were "plenty of players deemed fragile until they're not", so please list plenty who compare to Saquon's career trajectory.

 

[TheWinz]

Everyone definitely didn't start him in week 2, I know I didn't, and many Barkley owners on this board, and that I know, didn't. It was actually a pretty big surprise he had the workload he did in week 2, as there was a ton of talk from Barkley and Judge(or Garrett, I don't recall which) that he would still be limited that week. I'm minorly cherry picking, but its with a reason, not just to make Barkley look better. Those are the games with the most predictive value of what to expect going forward, if Barkley is healthy. 

I do think its silly to hold games players got hurt in against them in general. Sure it probably hurts the person who started them that week, but its not a useful or viable statistic to value in any way. Week 2 of 2020 and week 5 of this year 100% don't count, or matter, and holding those games against Barkley is much more cherry picking than anything I'm doing. 

I do not own Saquon, or Booker, or have to face either all the way to the finals this year.  I have no dog in this this race.

To say many Barkley owners had him benched week 2, after he had 29 healthy snaps in week 1 is bogus.  I don't care if you show me a screenshot of your starting lineup.  The fact is, he is Saquon and was healthy and would've been a must start in every single lineup in redraft fantasy football, unless you also owned Henry, CMC, Taylor, Ekeler, and about 4 others.  Now, I could see a very slim chance in dynasty, depending on who you own, but in redraft, 100% not.  He had 11 touches in 29 snaps, and came out ready for week 3.  No way in Hades many Barkley owners kept him benched in week 2.  Of course EVERYONE definitely did not start him, but that doesn't mean everyone should've benched him.  He played 58 snaps, and he is SAQUON!  You can't have it both ways - either Saquon is a stud and a must start, or he is a scrub and you play matchups with him.  Which is he to you?

You know what sucks?  I know I am 100% right in this argument, but I am drunk and suck at arguments, so I will lose.  It still doesn't mean I am wrong though.  

 

[Faust]

Saquon Barkley (ankle) is listed as questionable for Week 11 against the Bucs.

The Giants also listed Devontae Booker (hip) as questionable. Out since Week 5, Barkley looks likely to return on Monday night after practicing all week. His workload coming off an extended absence is the greater concern, though that could change if Booker is ruled out or limited. Barkley will be a high-end RB2 if he plays.

Nov 20, 2021, 1:08 PM ET

 

[Cobbler1]

Thank you!  The booze tastes great.  The cans have pictures of Clydesdale's and Saint Bernard's on them (the christmas budweisers).  I only mentioned Gurley because I saw his name as I was cruising stats for Saquon.  The fact is, Gurley had a chronic condition, and still managed to stay on the field longer than Saquon through his first 4 seasons.  You can call Saquon's injuries 3 separate freak injuries all you want, but the fact is he has missed 21 out of a possible 57 games in his career because of them.

Up above, you said, "Plenty of players have been deemed fragile until they’re not…" I decided to put that to the test, to see how many awesome RB's have missed as much time in the first 4 years of their careers as Saquon has.  Here is the list (we know Saquon missed 21 due to injury, but the below players may have missed for other reasons, but I chose to ignore those):

Emmitt Smith - 2 games missed
Walter Payton - 1 game missed
Frank Gore - 5 games missed
Barry Sanders - 2 games missed
Adrian Peterson - 3 games missed
Curtis Martin - 4 games missed
LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 game missed
Jerome Bettis - 1 game missed
Eric Dickerson - 2 games missed
Tony Dorsett - 5 games missed

None of the top 10 yardage leaders of all time came anywhere close to missing 21 games in their first 4 seasons.  You said there were "plenty of players deemed fragile until they're not", so please list plenty who compare to Saquon's career trajectory.

I don’t find it surprising that guys who ended up in the top 10 all time didn’t miss extended time during their first 4 years. Seems pretty close to a prerequisite when you need to be available to accrue yards in your prime. I also don’t find it at all predictive of anyone’s health going forward. And it’s also not what I’m disputing now.
 

Frank Gore was definitely deemed a health question mark coming out of college. ADP too. Fragile Fred Taylor was fragile Freddie until he wasn’t. Keenan Allen carried the can’t stay healthy tag with him for a few years. Stefon Diggs fell in the draft due to a litany of college injuries. Gronk for sure carried that tag. Heck half the top guys now have missed serious time with injury- Dalvin, Chubb, CMC, Swift had people buzzing about his health during the preseason. Aaron Jones I believe had a high ankle early in his career and was fortunate to escape with a minor knee tear this year. Leonard Fournette had ankle and hamstring injuries. It’s football, guys get hurt.
 

Can you list me some guys close to as good as Saquon who saw their play deteriorate early in their career because of injuries? The only one I can think of is Gurley who had the chronic knee thing, very different. If Saquon starts missing time with knees issues, I’ll be worried. Other than that…Ryan Mathews?? And he probably just wasn’t very good.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Thank you!  The booze tastes great.  The cans have pictures of Clydesdale's and Saint Bernard's on them (the christmas budweisers).  I only mentioned Gurley because I saw his name as I was cruising stats for Saquon.  The fact is, Gurley had a chronic condition, and still managed to stay on the field longer than Saquon through his first 4 seasons.  You can call Saquon's injuries 3 separate freak injuries all you want, but the fact is he has missed 21 out of a possible 57 games in his career because of them.

Up above, you said, "Plenty of players have been deemed fragile until they’re not…" I decided to put that to the test, to see how many awesome RB's have missed as much time in the first 4 years of their careers as Saquon has.  Here is the list (we know Saquon missed 21 due to injury, but the below players may have missed for other reasons, but I chose to ignore those):

Emmitt Smith - 2 games missed
Walter Payton - 1 game missed
Frank Gore - 5 games missed
Barry Sanders - 2 games missed
Adrian Peterson - 3 games missed
Curtis Martin - 4 games missed
LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 game missed
Jerome Bettis - 1 game missed
Eric Dickerson - 2 games missed
Tony Dorsett - 5 games missed

None of the top 10 yardage leaders of all time came anywhere close to missing 21 games in their first 4 seasons.  You said there were "plenty of players deemed fragile until they're not", so please list plenty who compare to Saquon's career trajectory.

FWIW games missed don't always tell the whole story.  Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore were VERY much knocked early in their careers for their injury issues.  Julio Jones and Keenan Allen are two bigs ones as well.  Of course the prototype for this is Fragile Fred Taylor, who went on to play 15 or 16 games in 5 out of 6 seasons after picking up the "Fragile Fred" moniker.

Of course there are plenty of guys that could never get over the injury issues as well, but the thing about the guys who DO get over them is we tend to forget about it.  I think Julio Jones is a great example of this.  It was by far the majority opinion after his 3rd year in the league that he was just never going to get over his chronic foot injuries and his value was heavily discounted for it, but we don't even remember it now.

 

[foxco]

I think Julio Jones is a great example of this.  It was by far the majority opinion after his 3rd year in the league that he was just never going to get over his chronic foot injuries and his value was heavily discounted for it, but we don't even remember it now.

Good point, these days I only remember Julio's chronic hamstring injuries.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Good point, these days I only remember Julio's chronic hamstring injuries.

How about the 6 consecutive years of elite top 3 WR production? 

 

[TheWinz]

Monday night will be Saquon's 58th NFL game.  Of those, he has missed 21
By the time Keenan Allen was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 20
By the time Dalvin Cook was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 20
By the time Fred Taylor was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 18
By the time Julio Jones was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 14
By the time Leonard Fournette was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 13
By the time Rob Gronkowski was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 11
By the time Ryan Mathews was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 10
By the time Stefon Diggs was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 9
By the time Aaron Jones was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 8
By the time Nick Chubb was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 7
By the time Christian McCaffrey was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 7
By the time Todd Gurley was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 4
By the time Adrian Peterson was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 3
By the time Frank Gore was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 3
D'Andre Swift has only been in the league 2 years, but has missed 3 thus far

Above are all the players mentioned by others in the last few posts.  These are people that were cherry-picked by the masses and still, Saquon has missed more games than every one of them.  If Fred gets the moniker "Fragile Fred", perhaps Saquon should be called "Broken Barkley".

 

[Cobbler1]

Monday night will be Saquon's 58th NFL game.  Of those, he has missed 21
By the time Keenan Allen was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 20
By the time Dalvin Cook was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 20
By the time Fred Taylor was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 18
By the time Julio Jones was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 14
By the time Leonard Fournette was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 13
By the time Rob Gronkowski was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 11
By the time Ryan Mathews was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 10
By the time Stefon Diggs was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 9
By the time Aaron Jones was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 8
By the time Nick Chubb was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 7
By the time Christian McCaffrey was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 7
By the time Todd Gurley was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 4
By the time Adrian Peterson was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 3
By the time Frank Gore was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 3
D'Andre Swift has only been in the league 2 years, but has missed 3 thus far

Above are all the players mentioned by others in the last few posts.  These are people that were cherry-picked by the masses and still, Saquon has missed more games than every one of them.  If Fred gets the moniker "Fragile Fred", perhaps Saquon should be called "Broken Barkley".

Nobody is arguing that he hasn’t been hurt a ton. We ALL get that. People are disputing that his skills seem to have diminished due to these injuries. And frankly your minuscule 3-5 game sample size is laughably meaningless in that argument. Do you get that? 

 

[KingPrawn]

Thank you!  The booze tastes great.  The cans have pictures of Clydesdale's and Saint Bernard's on them (the christmas budweisers).  I only mentioned Gurley because I saw his name as I was cruising stats for Saquon.  The fact is, Gurley had a chronic condition, and still managed to stay on the field longer than Saquon through his first 4 seasons.  You can call Saquon's injuries 3 separate freak injuries all you want, but the fact is he has missed 21 out of a possible 57 games in his career because of them.

Up above, you said, "Plenty of players have been deemed fragile until they’re not…" I decided to put that to the test, to see how many awesome RB's have missed as much time in the first 4 years of their careers as Saquon has.  Here is the list (we know Saquon missed 21 due to injury, but the below players may have missed for other reasons, but I chose to ignore those):

Emmitt Smith - 2 games missed
Walter Payton - 1 game missed
Frank Gore - 5 games missed
Barry Sanders - 2 games missed
Adrian Peterson - 3 games missed
Curtis Martin - 4 games missed
LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 game missed
Jerome Bettis - 1 game missed
Eric Dickerson - 2 games missed
Tony Dorsett - 5 games missed

None of the top 10 yardage leaders of all time came anywhere close to missing 21 games in their first 4 seasons.  You said there were "plenty of players deemed fragile until they're not", so please list plenty who compare to Saquon's career trajectory.

With all due respect, can we really trust the opinion of a poster that drinks Budweiser as the beer of his choice?

 

[TheWinz]

Nobody is arguing that he hasn’t been hurt a ton. We ALL get that. People are disputing that his skills seem to have diminished due to these injuries. And frankly your minuscule 3-5 game sample size is laughably meaningless in that argument. Do you get that? 

Yes, I get that his last 2 years is a very small sample size, because of all the missed games.  But the fact is he aged 2 years during that time.  And, to answer your actual question, yes, I do think his injuries have diminished his skills.  As a rookie, he ran wild.  But since his injuries have piled up, he runs like he is just waiting for his next injury.  He doesn't trust his body, and just like a kicker gets the yips, so has he.  He is still only 24, but mark my words - he will never have another injury-free season like he did when he played all 16 games as a rookie.

 

[JohnnyU]

 he will never have another injury-free season like he did when he played all 16 games as a rookie.

Predicting future injuries usually doesn't work out well in FF.

 

[TheWinz]

Predicting future injuries usually doesn't work out well in FF.

I didn't say I wanted Saquon to get hurt.  And how could me saying what I said not "work out well"?  Do you mean for me somehow?  Am I gonna get hurt because I said an NFL RB is likely to get hurt?

 

[JohnnyU]

I didn't say I wanted Saquon to get hurt.  And how could me saying what I said not "work out well"?  Do you mean for me somehow?  Am I gonna get hurt because I said an NFL RB is likely to get hurt?

I never said you "wanted" Barkley to get hurt.  You did say he will NEVER have another injury free season.  That insinuates future injuries.  I was pretty clear with my post.

 

[TheWinz]

I never said you "wanted" Barkley to get hurt.  You did say he will NEVER have another injury free season.  That insinuates future injuries.  I was pretty clear with my post.

I am not insinuating it - I am saying it loud and clear.  What you were not clear about is how it will not turn out well.  Is he gonna stay injury-free and it's gonna be bad for me somehow?  Or is it a karma thing where I fall down a flight of stairs?  Please explain how it can turn out badly.

 

[JohnnyU]

I am not insinuating it - I am saying it loud and clear.  What you were not clear about is how it will not turn out well.  Is he gonna stay injury-free and it's gonna be bad for me somehow?  Or is it a karma thing where I fall down a flight of stairs?  Please explain how it can turn out badly.

What I meant about that is that I've learned not to predict future fantasy success by predicting injury.  That part wasn't meant to say YOU are predicting fantasy success by predicting injury, but to say that FF in general it doesn't turn out well with that strategy. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Can't risk it because it's being played on Monday night.  It's a horrible matchup anyway.  

 

[TheWinz]

What I meant about that is that I've learned not to predict future fantasy success by predicting injury.  That part wasn't meant to say YOU are predicting fantasy success by predicting injury, but to say that FF in general it doesn't turn out well with that strategy. 

Every successful FF'er predicts injury.  They just don't say it out loud, because it's taboo.  If you knew right now that all TE's would've stayed injury-free this year, would you draft Gronk any higher?  Of course you would.  Injury probability is baked into every player's ADP, you know that.

 

[JohnnyU]

Every successful FF'er predicts injury.  They just don't say it out loud, because it's taboo.  If you knew right now that all TE's would've stayed injury-free this year, would you draft Gronk any higher?  Of course you would.  Injury probability is baked into every player's ADP, you know that.

Regardless, but I see no reason to believe Barkley's future years as injury free have come and gone.

 

[Weebs210]

Can't risk it because it's being played on Monday night.  It's a horrible matchup anyway.  

Bucs are without vea who is the glue to their run defense. It's not a bad matchup if he's out.

 

[Cobbler1]

Really weird stuff in this thread from Winz

 

[Dacomish]

For those with Barkley - how confident you are that he will be good to go tomorrow night?

Everything seems to be trending towards that but man with L-Jax now out I am seriously considering playing it safeish and rolling Gibson out....

 

[Weebs210]

For those with Barkley - how confident you are that he will be good to go tomorrow night?

Everything seems to be trending towards that but man with L-Jax now out I am seriously considering playing it safeish and rolling Gibson out....

I'm starting him in a league I have to win this week with no back up plans. I'll be holding my breath until he's officially active but I think he plays.

 

[Dacomish]

I'm starting him in a league I have to win this week with no back up plans. I'll be holding my breath until he's officially active but I think he plays.

Thanks I do have Booker, but he actually sounds worse off availability wise than Squads! I suppose I could pick up E.Penny if both Squads and Booker are out. 

 

[Weebs210]

Thanks I do have Booker, but he actually sounds worse off availability wise than Squads! I suppose I could pick up E.Penny if both Squads and Booker are out. 

Saquads hinted he would have played last week if he wasn't dealing with the covid positive scenario. I feel like one of the two will play in your situation. I almost traded Collins for booker last night but decided to just hold.

 

[Cobbler1]

For those with Barkley - how confident you are that he will be good to go tomorrow night?

Everything seems to be trending towards that but man with L-Jax now out I am seriously considering playing it safeish and rolling Gibson out....

Playing him. Not expecting a huge game game. Maybe 12-15 points. I have Golladay/Booker as my caddies in one. Just Booker in another but could add Penny if both are out. Just Golladay in a 4th. And one league I’m naked and hoping he’s a go. Seems like he is.

 

[Grahamburn]

Tampa’s D has been terrible lately even with Vea. 

 

[foxco]

How about the 6 consecutive years of elite top 3 WR production? 

I would find that more impressive if Julio was on any of my teams during those years!!

On Barkley, I have him in with Gio as my emergency replacement. Hoping Barkley can go and look like he will be useful during the stretch run. 

 

[Faust]

Saquon Barkley is active for Week 11 against the Bucs.

Devontae Booker was listed as questionable with a hip issue but is also active. Barkley has been out since Week 5 but got an extra week off with the Giants' bye coming in Week 10. Before making an early exit in Week 5, Barkley had amassed 40 touches in his previous two games. It's possible that the Giants work him back in slowly given his recent injury history but the star back can still be relied upon for RB2 numbers at a minimum. If he sees his full workload right away, he'll project as a top-five fantasy option going forward. 

Nov 22, 2021, 6:58 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Should the New York Giants give Saquon Barkley a big-money extension? It's complicated

 

[Payne]

Nothing more than a decoy. Should have never drafted him this year. 

 

[travdogg]

Nothing more than a decoy. Should have never drafted him this year. 

Meh. 1st game back off an injury, and they got behind quick. 

As for not drafting him, couldn't have predicted he'd get hurt on such a fluky play. Could have happened to any player in the NFL. Still think he's a top-12 RB going forward. Schedule is very easy going forward. Dallas is probably the toughest matchup left. 

 

[Faust]

Saquon Barkley rushed six times for 25 yards and caught all six of his targets for 31 yards in the Giants' Week 11 loss to the Bucs.

It was Barkley's first action since twisting his ankle in Week 5. Prior to this game getting out of hand in the second half, Barkley had been dominating the backfield snaps over Devontae Booker. Barkley looked as close to 100% health as one can imagine, so his outlook is strong going forward. Barkley's six catches were second on the team behind Kadarius Toney's seven on 12 targets. Barkley will be an easy RB1 play next week against the Eagles.

Nov 22, 2021, 11:23 PM ET

 

[JohnnyU]

Should have never drafted him this year. 

Oh for Pete Gogolak’s sake.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Monday night will be Saquon's 58th NFL game.  Of those, he has missed 21
By the time Keenan Allen was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 20
By the time Dalvin Cook was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 20
By the time Fred Taylor was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 18
By the time Julio Jones was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 14
By the time Leonard Fournette was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 13
By the time Rob Gronkowski was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 11
By the time Ryan Mathews was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 10
By the time Stefon Diggs was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 9
By the time Aaron Jones was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 8
By the time Nick Chubb was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 7
By the time Christian McCaffrey was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 7
By the time Todd Gurley was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 4
By the time Adrian Peterson was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 3
By the time Frank Gore was ready for his 58th game, he had missed 3
D'Andre Swift has only been in the league 2 years, but has missed 3 thus far

Above are all the players mentioned by others in the last few posts.  These are people that were cherry-picked by the masses and still, Saquon has missed more games than every one of them.  If Fred gets the moniker "Fragile Fred", perhaps Saquon should be called "Broken Barkley".

That was a lot of work to say nothing

 

[TheWinz]

That was a lot of work to say nothing

Saquon has 718 PPR fantasy points since he joined the NFL in 2018
Since 2018, Kenyan Drake has scored 711 PPR fantasy points

Just thought I would reply with more useless facts.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Saquon has 718 PPR fantasy points since he joined the NFL in 2018
Since 2018, Kenyan Drake has scored 711 PPR fantasy points

Just thought I would reply with more useless facts.

This is very useful- would much rather have Drake than Barkley based on that. Who wouldn’t?

 

[joffer]

Saquon has 718 PPR fantasy points since he joined the NFL in 2018
Since 2018, Kenyan Drake has scored 711 PPR fantasy points

Just thought I would reply with more useless facts.

wow a three year long league.  when are the playoffs?