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RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (3 Viewers)

For context, 40+ is considered an outstanding score, with the trailing 5-yr average at the position being 34.3.

David Johnson jumped what was seen as an elite 41.5, 3rd best for backs since 2012. Gerald Sensabaugh, a DB who played for the Cowboys, has the all-time record (I believe) of 46. Jay Hinton, an RB out of Morgan State, has the highest all time at the RB position of 43.5 in 1999.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
they had to tell him how to put his feet and hands at the beginning. 4.41 is amazing for a 233 lb guy. 
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We'll see if he gets more settled and runs faster for his second time. But they did have to hold him up so I do wonder if that made him "think" a little more than he should prior to that first run.

Either way, at his weight, that's blazing.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I’m super jealous of anyone getting this guy in dynasty. Best prospect since Bo?
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Maybe since Calvin. He was a freak. 6'5" 235, 4.35 40, 42.5 inch vert, 11'7" broad jump. Accounted for 97% of his college team's passing offense with 1200 and 15 TDs. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Maybe since Calvin. He was a freak. 6'5" 235, 4.35 40, 42.5 inch vert, 11'7" broad jump. Accounted for 97% of his college team's passing offense with 1200 and 15 TDs. 
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Wait, is that last stat accurate, that he accounted for 97%? That’s insane if true 

 
Soulfly3 said:
He's a touch under Gurley, for me
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I think Gurley would have been better without the injury (Gurley ran with a lot more strength than Barkley does), but not coming off an ACL tear is a big tiebreaker.

 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
somehow I think he is play for NYG at #2 now and they pass on the QB. 
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If he falls, sure. 

I don't like the combine adjusting my feelings but in the full context of getting Barkley and one of the QBs vs their choice of QB and vea or Fitzpatrick, I'm coming around to taking Barkley at the top.

 
ESPN Stats & Info✔@ESPNStatsInfo

Saquon Barkley's combine numbers might be as impressive as his actual in-game numbers...

There is only one player at the Combine since 2006 who ran as fast (4.40 sec or faster), benched as many reps (29+) and jumped as high (41 inches) as Saquon Barkley: Vernon Davis in 2006

3:01 PM - Mar 2, 2018

 
I was hoping to package 1.05 and/or 1.08 (if needed) and either CMC or Fournette to get 1.01. The more time that passes the more Barkley and the #1 Dynasty pick seem out of reach. I wasn't sure that would've been enough before the combine, I'm positive it's not enough now. I'm going to try for &%its and giggles though.

 
Andrew74 said:
Having the 1.02 never felt so horrible. 
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Eh, Guice is a dang good prospect, a fine 1.01 in a regular year plus there's a bunch of other very nice looking RB's this year. Zeke's year there was literally nobody after him. You got to pick between Treadwell, Coleman or Doctson. They may have gone in the 1st round, but none of those guys was even close to a lock WR prospect in the slightest.

 
Buckna said:
Eh, Guice is a dang good prospect, a fine 1.01 in a regular year plus there's a bunch of other very nice looking RB's this year. Zeke's year there was literally nobody after him. You got to pick between Treadwell, Coleman or Doctson. They may have gone in the 1st round, but none of those guys was even close to a lock WR prospect in the slightest.
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the right picks after zeke were mike Thomas ( remember when people said he was the bad one??? LOL) and Jordan howard & derrick Henry, Hunter Henry, Wentz, Goff & drake....but yes those early Wr picks look like busts....

 
Buckna said:
Eh, Guice is a dang good prospect, a fine 1.01 in a regular year plus there's a bunch of other very nice looking RB's this year. Zeke's year there was literally nobody after him. You got to pick between Treadwell, Coleman or Doctson. They may have gone in the 1st round, but none of those guys was even close to a lock WR prospect in the slightest.
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Part of that is true but part of it is perception.  Coming off the crazy 2014 WR class people were egads over WRs at the time.  Henry was an early 2nd round pick and was behind a bunch of meh WR prospects that aren't really any better than this year's.  Still a ways to go but Barkley may end up the only 1st round RB in the NFL draft this year yet because of the change in approach everyone is shifting to after a big RB year and a few down WR years we're probably going to have 2nd, 3rd, maybe even 4th round RBs getting taken in fantasy over 1st round WRs.  Henry as an early 2nd would have easily slid in as the #2 pick back in 2015 if the consensus approach were as shifted back towards RB as it is now.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
the right picks after zeke were mike Thomas ( remember when people said he was the bad one??? LOL) and Jordan howard & derrick Henry, Hunter Henry, Wentz, Goff & drake....but yes those early Wr picks look like busts....
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Not really relevant, there are non-early picks that succeed all the time (Kamara, Hunt, JuJu this past year) Those 3 WR's were the consensus ADP at the time and nobody really was super excited about any of them then or could trade out of those picks for much either. As opposed to this year where people are valuing the top 4~5 this year like gold... as they should. Henry was around 5th and Thomas around 7th that year, both were 2nd round real life NFLers, hardly locks to succeed either (Tenn had signed Murray, NO had spent a 1st the year prior on Cooks who looked real good.) We have the benefit of hindsight now but the jury is still very much out on most of the guys you just named. There's about 4~5 RB's this year that I would take over anybody not named Zeke as a fantasy prospect in 2016.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Part of that is true but part of it is perception.  Coming off the crazy 2014 WR class people were egads over WRs at the time.  Henry was an early 2nd round pick and was behind a bunch of meh WR prospects that aren't really any better than this year's.  Still a ways to go but Barkley may end up the only 1st round RB in the NFL draft this year yet because of the change in approach everyone is shifting to after a big RB year and a few down WR years we're probably going to have 2nd, 3rd, maybe even 4th round RBs getting taken in fantasy over 1st round WRs.  Henry as an early 2nd would have easily slid in as the #2 pick back in 2015 if the consensus approach were as shifted back towards RB as it is now.
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I see what you are saying but don't think I misremembering that much or that people were overvaluing those WR's at the time due to previous years. Aside from Zeke, everyone thought that was a weak year and wanted out of their picks, myself included as I had some of those early ones and couldn't give them away. Everyone was super excited for the following draft year and would not dare to part with their future 1sts but that's what everyone was trying to do, get out of that year and get into the next. This year the 2~4 are almost as hard to trade into as the 1. Some of that is perception as you say (how many times have I seen people make posts the last two months saying "oh I'll just trade back into the late 1st and grab the next Kamara." :rolleyes: :P ) But I also really doubt Barkley is the only 1st round NFL RB this year given the quality of the backs we're seeing are similar to last year, but we'll see.

Disagree on Henry also, Murray had just signed before they drafted Henry, his path was blocked for the forseeable future and he is still not a lock to be the bellcow even this year. Wasn't there just a few pages thread comparing Henry to the 1.06 pick a few days ago? I don't agree at all that Henry would have gone that much earlier now, you could point to Mixon or Cook going over MW or Ross last year, but those WRs had bad injuries and/or AJ Green blocking them. Both Cook and Mixon were thought to be 1st round level talent until the domestic incident tape got out and Cook had a terrible combine. Plus everybody knows Ross & MW were reaches by those teams. Most everyone expected those WR's to go in the 20's or later. Consensus was Tenn was going to take one of them with their second 1st, not the 7 overall. Ross in particular should not have been drafted in the top 10 of the real NFL draft. They were treated just the same in fantasy as when people passed on Troy Williamson or Ted Ginn and let them fall later in their fantasy drafts.

 
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Buckna said:
I see what you are saying but don't think I misremembering that much or that people were overvaluing those WR's at the time due to previous years. Aside from Zeke, everyone thought that was a weak year and wanted out of their picks, myself included as I had some of those early ones and couldn't give them away. Everyone was super excited for the following draft year and would not dare to part with their future 1sts but that's what everyone was trying to do, get out of that year and get into the next. This year the 2~4 are almost as hard to trade into as the 1. Some of that is perception as you say (how many times have I seen people make posts the last two months saying "oh I'll just trade back into the late 1st and grab the next Kamara." :rolleyes: :P ) But I also really doubt Barkley is the only 1st round NFL RB this year given the quality of the backs we're seeing are similar to last year, but we'll see.

Disagree on Henry also, Murray had just signed before they drafted Henry, his path was blocked for the forseeable future and he is still not a lock to be the bellcow even this year. Wasn't there just a few pages thread comparing Henry to the 1.06 pick a few days ago? I don't agree at all that Henry would have gone that much earlier now, you could point to Mixon or Cook going over MW or Ross last year, but those WRs had bad injuries and/or AJ Green blocking them. Both Cook and Mixon were thought to be 1st round level talent until the domestic incident tape got out and Cook had a terrible combine. Plus everybody knows Ross & MW were reaches by those teams. Most everyone expected those WR's to go in the 20's or later. Consensus was Tenn was going to take one of them with their second 1st, not the 7 overall. Ross in particular should not have been drafted in the top 10 of the real NFL draft. They were treated just the same in fantasy as when people passed on Troy Williamson or Ted Ginn and let them fall later in their fantasy drafts.
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That Titans pick at 18 was about the lowest MW was typically mocked at.  He was mocked in the top 10 as often as outside the top 15.

Regardless, the point is that a RB with workhorse qualities and good workout numbers drafted in the early 2nd round would be a hot commodity in the 2017 dynasty community, even with an aging veteran in front.  But in 2015 we were coming off a horrible stretch where we had like 14 of the last 17 second round RBs being really bad and we had just seen an entire 1st round of WRs blow up (this was back before Watkins/Benjamin faded too).

Now the roles are completely flipped.  We may see two or three of those top 5 RBs people want this year go later in the draft than Henry did but everyone is going to be salivating over them like they weren't back then, and no one wants to get stuck taking a WR when the feeling right now is that every WR prospect that isn't Megatron is a waste of time.  Additionally some of these guys have gotten even bigger boosts from recent history like a Kamara clone (Michel) coming out the year after Kamara blew up.  Swap the year that Sony and Henry entered the draft and Sony would probably be a fantasy 2nd rounder while Henry would sit very much in this same tier of RBs that everyone so desperately wants.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Part of that is true but part of it is perception.  Coming off the crazy 2014 WR class people were egads over WRs at the time.  Henry was an early 2nd round pick and was behind a bunch of meh WR prospects that aren't really any better than this year's.  Still a ways to go but Barkley may end up the only 1st round RB in the NFL draft this year yet because of the change in approach everyone is shifting to after a big RB year and a few down WR years we're probably going to have 2nd, 3rd, maybe even 4th round RBs getting taken in fantasy over 1st round WRs.  Henry as an early 2nd would have easily slid in as the #2 pick back in 2015 if the consensus approach were as shifted back towards RB as it is now.
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Henry was my 2nd ranked RB in 2016. He was a tier two player because I had and to a certain extent still have some questions about him working out as a feature RB that could keep him from being top 12 for fantasy, but he was borderline tier one in my view. Still better than Booker and Dixon who I also liked a lot that year and ranked as tier two RB after Henry. Henry was my 5th ranked player overall.

I thought Coleman, Doctson and Treadwell had tier one upside at WR so ahead of Henry. Shephard and Mike Thomas I had as tier two WR ranked 5th and 6th overall.

I was definitely wrong about Thomas, under estimated him and I really over estimated Coleman, Doctson and Treadwell. Which in retrospect I regret and I am more cautous about considering a rookie tier one now.

 
Biabreakable said:
Henry was my 2nd ranked RB in 2016. He was a tier two player because I had and to a certain extent still have some questions about him working out as a feature RB that could keep him from being top 12 for fantasy, but he was borderline tier one in my view. Still better than Booker and Dixon who I also liked a lot that year and ranked as tier two RB after Henry. Henry was my 5th ranked player overall.

I thought Coleman, Doctson and Treadwell had tier one upside at WR so ahead of Henry. Shephard and Mike Thomas I had as tier two WR ranked 5th and 6th overall.

I was definitely wrong about Thomas, under estimated him and I really over estimated Coleman, Doctson and Treadwell. Which in retrospect I regret and I am more cautous about considering a rookie tier one now.
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I had a nice long response typed up to FreeBaGel but my browser crashed. Your description kind of matches what I was saying as well, that was consensus at the time. I still don't necessarily agree with the assertion that drafting now we would reorder those guys solely based on the fact that the last few RB classes have been hits and the WR classes have been misses. To me every class and prospect have to be weighed individually as I think most people do. I also don't think your rankings then are that off just because of how things have gone so far, both Doctson & Coleman have battled injuries both years missing significant time. I may be one of the few, but I haven't totally given up on either of those two, although I did pass on Treadwell at the time. I'm also not totally sold on Henry although he has looked promising in his limited usage. Not sure anyone could have predicted Thomas breaking out and Cooks getting traded.

I also think one has to remember back to the situations at that time. Redskins were a playoff team looking like they were on the upswing with Cousins (and both starting WR looked likely to be gone, which happened), neither Cleveland nor Minn had established WR1's. The Titans were considered a ####ty team two years ago with some hopes due to drafting Mariota (who broke his leg that year IIRC.) However, Wisenhut had just gotten fired after going 2-14 and 3-13 in back to back seasons, most people felt they had totally wasted/not developed Sankey (another highly drafted 2nd round RB, the first RB overall that year), they were a bottom tier rushing team, with a bottom ranked O'line who's leading rusher that year had been Antonio freaking Andrews. Mularkey was talking about some weird "exotic smash-mouth football" that most people rolled their eyes at. If we were to have something analogous this year, it would be something like the Browns resigning Crow or maybe signing Hyde, passing on Barkley and drafting a RB at the top of the 2nd. Would that guy get drafted over WR's going in the NFL 1st round? IDK, it's quite possible I guess. But even this hypothetical may not fit well, many consider the Browns on the upswing with a great o'line and just missing a good QB and a few other pieces. Maybe the Jets drafting a QB and then a RB in the 2nd would be a good hypothetical comparison...

Edit: Anyway, back to Barkley...

 
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Buckna said:
I had a nice long response typed up to FreeBaGel but my browser crashed. Your description kind of matches what I was saying as well, that was consensus at the time. I still don't necessarily agree with the assertion that drafting now we would reorder those guys solely based on the fact that the last few RB classes have been hits and the WR classes have been misses. To me every class and prospect have to weighed individually as I think most people do. I also think your rankings then are that off just because of how things have gone so far, both Doctson & Coleman have battled injuries both years missing significant time. I may be one of the few, but I haven't totally given up on either of those too, I did pass on Treadwell though. I'm also not totally sold on Henry also although he has looked promising in his limited usage. Not sure anyone could have predicted Thomas breaking out and Cooks getting traded.

I also think one has to remember back to the situations at that time. Redskins were a playoff team looking like they were on the upswing with Cousins, neither Cleveland nor Minn had established WR1's. The Titans were considered a ####ty team two years ago with some hopes due to drafting Mariota (who broke his leg that year IIRC.) However, Wisenhut had just gotten fired after going 2-14 and 3-13 in back to back seasons, most people felt they had totally wasted/not developed Sankey (another highly drafted 2nd round RB, the first RB overall that year), they were a bottom tier rushing team, with a bottom ranked O'line who's leading rusher that year had been Antonio freaking Andrews. Mularkey was talking about some weird "exotic smash-mouth football" that most people rolled their eyes at. If we were to have something analogous this year, it would be something like the Browns resigning Crow or maybe signing Hyde, passing on Barkley and drafting a RB at the top of the 2nd. Would that guy get drafted over WR's going in the NFL 1st round? IDK, it's quite possible I guess. But even this hypothetical may not fit well, many consider the Browns on the upswing with a great o'line and just missing a good QB and a few other pieces. Maybe the Jets drafting a QB and then a RB in the 2nd would be a good hypothetical comparison...
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Yeah I do still like Coleman and Docton, although my optimism for them becomes top 12 at the position has waned since then. Zimmer recently stated that Treadwell just needs to get out of his own way. You are absolutely right in that Diggs and Thielen beng unknowns at that time and while I thought Diggs was very good I could envision Treadwell possibly being better than him.

Treadwell is likely the one I regret the most, as I think I should have known better. In some ways I just made those 3 WR tier one because I thought some player besides Elliot should be tier one players in fantasy. I guessed wrong. Thomas has been tier one and those 3 have not. Shephard I think I got more right than the other WR. He is a tier 2 upside guy. They likely should have all been tier two guys though. I just thought Elliot was too lonely all alone there.

Thats not really rational though is it? So I have changed my view about that and the player has to be really good for me to consider them tier one now.

 
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