I think Barkley's ADP will vary wildly. I think he's worthy of looking at on the 2/3 turn but I doubt he goes that high on most leagues. I would bet he falls to about 40th overall or so, simply because so many people a) want nothing to do with the Giants, and b) have been burned by Barkley recently.
So he's currently at 25 overall redraft. That's 3.01
I expect as his health is highlighted, and as FF writers hype him up more and more this offseason (and FF heads like yourself, of course) his ADP will creep into the mid-second. Same exact thing happened last year - he went late 2nd in my league, and the hype this year is coming in sooner and stronger. FF managers will talk themselves into a lot of things while they're on the clock. Hell, CMC pretty much ruined my year last season and I'm starting to talk myself into him as a 1st round pick.
Desperation is never pretty.
I admit, there's a price that I would consider Barkley a value. Mid-2nd is not that price, so I really hope you're correct about 40th overall. 4th round is exactly where I would take a chance on him. I believe he'll be long gone by then in my late August draft.
The NY Giants had 23 offensive TDs last year, which is pathetic, and should certainly go up just by default, as its hard to be that bad. Also so many players were hurt last year. I'm not sure Barkley will be a lot more efficient this season, but its possible he is, what I am sure of is that the overall offense and his share of it will be better. I think something like 1,100-11 is on the table, with something like 50 catches.
I've got Barkley RB13 personally, I'd like to have him lower, but I really have a hard time coming up with reasons beyond "he gets injured again" to do so.
My big non-injury concern is the continued regression of Danny Dimes. The more they've let him pass, the more trouble he's gotten into. And 3 & outs are just as bad for skill players. And yet that's what the Giants are saying they want to do - open up the offense and let Danny Dimes let it fly without worrying about turnovers. That sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.
I also wonder if Barkley is game-script proof, as he would need to be for such a lofty investment, and to be "bad team proof" as many implied he was above.
Will the Giants keep running him out there in garbage time if they're down 3 scores in the 4th? Those are the receptions people are counting on in part, so I think it's an interesting question.
Unfortunately some of that is unknowable.
Again - not trashing Barkley at all. I don't love his ADP, and if it continues to rise, I'll love it even less.