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RB Tarik Cohen, NYJ (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JFS171
- Start date
gruecd
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I spent $906 of $7100 total roster salary (20 spots)
I was called crazy, we'll see.
I have the option of him or Dalvin Cook - staying with Cook this week
I was called crazy, we'll see.
I have the option of him or Dalvin Cook - staying with Cook this week
-OZ-
Footballguy
I've been on the train for a long time now but even I'm starting to think I'd trade him if I got someone like Kelce or Olsen.
Exact question I have right now. Need 2 of Cohen, Hyde or gillislee. Starting Gill vs the saints.
I own him in close to 20 leagues and they are all 2 RB/dual flex leagues so a little easier to put him in the lineup then just deciding between 2 RB's, if that was the case he'd probably only be in the lineup in a small handful of leagues, like 20-25% range of leagues I own him.
As is he is in the lineup in all but one league, which is undecided but leaning on benching him in that one. I'll spare everyone listing out the people he is in over and just say the one league I'm not yet decided has boiled down to Devante Parker, who was drafted a week ago today in that league as my W2 vs Cohen. I obviously like Parker but not so much his match-up this week but likely going to start him for a reason I don't normally use, hedging. Around 20 teams is a bit heavy for one player and I'd be pretty flat if Cohen were to have a bad game or worse suffer early in-game injury exit so I think I sit him in this one.
As is he is in the lineup in all but one league, which is undecided but leaning on benching him in that one. I'll spare everyone listing out the people he is in over and just say the one league I'm not yet decided has boiled down to Devante Parker, who was drafted a week ago today in that league as my W2 vs Cohen. I obviously like Parker but not so much his match-up this week but likely going to start him for a reason I don't normally use, hedging. Around 20 teams is a bit heavy for one player and I'd be pretty flat if Cohen were to have a bad game or worse suffer early in-game injury exit so I think I sit him in this one.
whiskey7
Footballguy
You clearly believe in this player and it sounds like you're putting your money where your mouth is. I respect that
What gets me is the people who (a week ago) didn't know Tarik Cohen from Leonard Cohen but now (after one 13 touch game) are so enamored with him they are blowing their entire budget to get him and talking like they just scored an obvious fantasy stud. I read all these posts where guys are talking up his ability and situation and projecting him to do big things and wonder why in the heck those folks didn't just draft the guy. He wasn't worth someone's last pick in the draft but this week they spend 100% of their budget to get him? Must be pretty impressed by what he did with those touches against Atlanta.
For what it's worth I did most of my drafts after week 3 of the preseason and while I was the one taking him in most of my drafts he was getting drafted in most leagues I was not in and a few times someone beat me out on him. He was hovering in that late teen round area so not high, but he was getting drafted and the last draft I was in where someone beat me out on him was the night before the opener and they took him in round 13.You clearly believe in this player and it sounds like you're putting your money where your mouth is. I respect that
What gets me is the people who (a week ago) didn't know Tarik Cohen from Leonard Cohen but now (after one 13 touch game) are so enamored with him they are blowing their entire budget to get him and talking like they just scored an obvious fantasy stud. I read all these posts where guys are talking up his ability and situation and projecting him to do big things and wonder why in the heck those folks didn't just draft the guy. He wasn't worth someone's last pick in the draft but this week they spend 100% of their budget to get him? Must be pretty impressed by what he did with those touches against Atlanta.
I got an FFPC dynasty league where someone bid over $700 BEFORE week one, same guy bid over $200 on him before the opener in another league-I think would have bid more in that league but had someone else he spent a bunch on. I absolutely consider this person a good fantasy player by the way, not some clown.
So my point is there were people who were on him before the opener. I got a small weekly fantasy radio segment I do and I had listed him as RB sleeper of the week prior to week one for DFS leagues and sleeper in general in my fantasy preview show so while yes his game one got me higher on him I was obviously pretty high to begin with but I think it's absolutely ok to go nuts on a guy like him over one game, even if you were not high on him before. Why not? He's a rookie from a small college who most knew little about, what in his life before week one should matter more in how he is evaluated then what he just did and how he looked in his first actual NFL game?
az_prof
Footballguy
I traded Tyrell Williams for him, whom I am also very high on, and I was not very knowledgeable about Cohen before week 1. Why did I make that deal? Because you can't really judge a rookie until you see them on the field in a regular season NFL game. And in Cohen's case, I see exceptional quickness, agility and intuition. I know that if he has another great game that I won't be able to get him for a reasonable price so you have to strike quickly if you think a player has special talent. His size will limit him no doubt but in PPR leagues a player like him can be a low end RB1 or solid RB2 and they are very valuable. The situation stinks but when Trubisky takes over that will make the Bears even more of a passing team and there are so few receivers that passing to the running back must remain a priority.
That's how it is with these young guys who suddenly emerge--you either jump on band wagon or you never do because they get too expensive. There is risk and he could get hurt, but I don't think he is going to suddenly become pedestrian, forget how to catch or run, and I don't think the team is going to stop throwing dump off passes.
That's how it is with these young guys who suddenly emerge--you either jump on band wagon or you never do because they get too expensive. There is risk and he could get hurt, but I don't think he is going to suddenly become pedestrian, forget how to catch or run, and I don't think the team is going to stop throwing dump off passes.
sportsphysio
Footballguy
Any Howard owners starting Howard and Cohen together?
The Chicago Tribune's Rich Campbell expects Jordan Howard (questionable, shoulder) to play in Week 2 at Tampa Bay.
However, Campbell left open the possibility Howard could see limited snaps by saying it was "fair" to expect a downtick in playing time after Howard did very little in practice all week. It's not inconceivable rookie Tarik Cohen winds up leading the Bears' backfield in snaps after leading them in Week 1 targets.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
However, Campbell left open the possibility Howard could see limited snaps by saying it was "fair" to expect a downtick in playing time after Howard did very little in practice all week. It's not inconceivable rookie Tarik Cohen winds up leading the Bears' backfield in snaps after leading them in Week 1 targets.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
Gopher State
Footballguy
snitwitch
Footballguy
probably will due to lack of better options and two flex starters in a 14 team league
Interseptopus
Footballguy
9 targets, 7 rushes today. looks great.
so much for teams planning for him after week 1. didn't score 20 points but still a quality start and he's getting the ball a ton
so much for teams planning for him after week 1. didn't score 20 points but still a quality start and he's getting the ball a ton
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Crystalsteam99
Footballguy
I don't feel to bad losing out on bidding on Cohen, I bid over 3/4 of my budget and I didn't get him. I'd rather have the 3/4 of my budget still. It's a loooooooong season,it would of sucked to have very little $$$ left the rest of the way.... Plenty more RB's will come along through out the season that won't cost as much and could produce just as good #'s and be on a much better offense for more potential TD's) at probably half the price it cost most for Cohen(if you bid).
-OZ-
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Because it was obvious the Bucs were keyed on him and they definitely slowed him down. Dan was alluding to my comment following the Atlanta game that defenses would game-plan for him now, and Tampa did. Sure, he had plenty of catches, but they went for nothing because he had defenders near him on every play. I realize that's a nice day in PPR fantasy, but he only averaged 4.5 yards per touch. Tampa wasn't surprised by him. Atlanta was.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
That's fine, but to come in here after our conversation last week and thump your chest like Tampa didn't game plan for him and pretty much shut him down is ridiculous. They most certainly did.
With the way the Bears' offense looked today I don't see things being much better for Cohen. He's not going to find a lot of the space he needs to do significant damage with limited touches.
I'm not even playing fantasy this year. I only cared about this kid because I'm a Bucs' fan.
NREC34
Footballguy
If the bears try to run their offense through him there will be a lot more days like today.
But hey, I remember facing Peyton Hillis in a fantasy matchup a few years back and sitting there and watching him catch about 10 3 yard passes and being amazed at the points he was getting for basically doing nothing. So maybe it'll work out for you guys in ppr.
In real life it will be a huge flop.
But hey, I remember facing Peyton Hillis in a fantasy matchup a few years back and sitting there and watching him catch about 10 3 yard passes and being amazed at the points he was getting for basically doing nothing. So maybe it'll work out for you guys in ppr.
In real life it will be a huge flop.
RBM
Footballguy
Yup. I'm already sick of the hype and the coaches treating him like Gale Sayers. He could be a nice gadget type player, maybe a good returner when he smartens up but he can't carry an offense.
These are people who lost out on him this week to league mates and they are here trying to make themselves feel better
Cohen outscored CMC today in my match-up (RB2 vs RB2). I'll take it.
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RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Two thoughts about today's game for Cohen:
Tampa had an entire offseason to gameplan for the Bears, giving them an entire week to basically plan JUST for Cohen, and the Bucs coming in 100% fresh. Not saying that other teams aren't going to plan against Cohen, but this situation is a bit unique.
The usage (or non usage) of Howard (possible injury?) make me believe that Cohen has a solidified role.
Tampa had an entire offseason to gameplan for the Bears, giving them an entire week to basically plan JUST for Cohen, and the Bucs coming in 100% fresh. Not saying that other teams aren't going to plan against Cohen, but this situation is a bit unique.
The usage (or non usage) of Howard (possible injury?) make me believe that Cohen has a solidified role.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I see no proof they "shut him down." he caught 8 of 9 targets. I would expect a few more incompletions or less targets if they were really shutting him down.
not thumping my chest at all. just pointing out that Chicago was going to get him the ball, and they did, and even though it was an average performance it was a solid ff outing. if he scored a TD we would be talking 20+ in ppr
they shut down the run game, but that's not what makes him an attractive ff option imo
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Capella
Footballguy
The Bucs game planned for the Bears for the entire offseason?
what? Their week 1 game was supposed to be the Dolphins. They didn't do anything different for their week 2 opponent than anybody else did.
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some of the hype is from people who haven't really seen him play or researched him at all and those are the guys that are saying he could be a lead back.
Everyone (especially myself the last 2-3 weeks) else is saying he is a gadget/change of pace back. As long as he stays healthy he will lead the team in receptions (probably somewhere around 80) and while some of those are only gonna go for 3-4 yards there will be some big gains too. There's going to be a couple weeks where it only takes 1 play for cohen to give you a good week
I say this for PPR leagues, in standard I would try to sell high or just lower your expections and play him in games were you figure the bears are going to be throwing alot
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bud29
Footballguy
To be fair, if I had a roster like Chicago's, I would end up running a lot of the offense through Cohen too.
Insein
Footballguy
I was gonna point that out earlier but felt it would be a waste if time.The Bucs game planned for the Bears for the entire offseason?
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
quality post right there...
anyway....Cohen is probably startable as a RB2/flex moving forward with bye weeks approaching and the fact that CHI sucks on offense.....i think we probably saw his floor today in some ways...he will probably outscore Howard this year in PPR leagues and most standard leagues IMO...hes a tough start though if you have comparable options cause CHI is just god awful and do you really want one of their guys in your lineup.....kinda like any Jets player.......he has talent and opportunity which is really what fantasy is about....but sometimes fantasy players need a supporting cast that is somewhat respectable to allow them to take real advantage of the talent and opportunity....this team is going to struggle maintaining drives and actually scoring TD's....so with Cohen you are banking on receptions and an occasional chunk of yardage....and yeah teams will probably make someone else beat them moving forward....he's probably the first guy that comes up in meetings as teams plan to "stop the Bears"....
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Whoops, mental fail there on my part. Good thing you didn't act like a huge doofus about it.The Bucs game planned for the Bears for the entire offseason?
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The truth is Jordan Howard is making many Jordan Howard owners unhappy. Also, Jordan Howard's shoulder is making Jordan Howard unhappy. Lots of unhappy parties.
-OZ-
Footballguy
So because the 4th round pick from a small school becomes the best player on the offense but isn't able to carry the offense and dominate as a rookie, he's a flop?
If you simply mean the bears offense will flop, we'll agree. But that's going to happen regardless. The bears are contending with the browns and jets for worst offense. Cohen is their only playmaker right now.
What coaches are "treating him like Gale Sayers"?
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I realized after I posted this that "peak" was the wrong word. Yes, if he can put up 86/1300/7, that would be amazing. I think I meant to say "prime Sproles". While he was in NO, Sproles averaged about 60/900/6. Realistically, I think that's Cohen's ceiling.
Now, however, I'm wondering if his ceiling is "Sproles if he had played with a crappy QB".
apalmer
Footballguy
Yeah, but some of those who lost out had to settle for Buck Allen who outscored Cohen by 6 pts. this week.These are people who lost out on him this week to league mates and they are here trying to make themselves feel better
Cohen outscored CMC today in my match-up (RB2 vs RB2). I'll take it.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Crowell finished the season as a high end RB2 in most formats playing for the worst team in football.Stinkin Ref said:
Lots to like in Chicago overall... they aren't at the level of the Jets IMO, but they don't have much hope this season for .500
Volume = fantasy points. And Cohen looks to get a lot of volume.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah this is pretty much the extent of the negativity. Two games in a row now posting better numbers than most RB2s. Two weeks in a row of 15+ targets+carriesThese are people who lost out on him this week to league mates and they are here trying to make themselves feel better
Cohen outscored CMC today in my match-up (RB2 vs RB2). I'll take it.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Cohen on pace for 168 targets in the passing game. That's unheard of (OBJ finished 2016 ranked 2nd with 169, DJ finished 24th with 120)
I think a realistic expectation would be to finish with DJ-type targets, which would put him in line for 7 targets/game ROS, assuming he stays healthy.
I think 7 targets a game is reasonable. I think it's also reasonable to expect more given how much Chicago may be playing from behind, and Cohen provides the only spark on offense... Howard looks bad so far but that could also be because of game flow, injury, etc.
Regardless, lots to like here. He is the only playmaker in the passing game on a team that will have to pass a lot. Pryor had good value last year on a bad team needing to pass a lot
90 receptions doesn't look so ridiculous
I think a realistic expectation would be to finish with DJ-type targets, which would put him in line for 7 targets/game ROS, assuming he stays healthy.
I think 7 targets a game is reasonable. I think it's also reasonable to expect more given how much Chicago may be playing from behind, and Cohen provides the only spark on offense... Howard looks bad so far but that could also be because of game flow, injury, etc.
Regardless, lots to like here. He is the only playmaker in the passing game on a team that will have to pass a lot. Pryor had good value last year on a bad team needing to pass a lot
90 receptions doesn't look so ridiculous
-OZ-
Footballguy
And crappy receivers.
Best case, Gentry does well and starts getting some attention. Wright is an okay 2 but doesn't scare anyone. Howard is having more problem than Cohen so far.
Yeah man, Buck Allen is awesome bro!
Some of us play in leagues where Buck Allen isn't sitting on the wire as well.
So far things are on track for my projected total of 112 rush and 112 targets. 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs. That's an average of 7 carries and 7 targets per game.
Rushing projection:
Rushing projection is on track. I told all of you that week 1 13.2 average is inflated. He's now at 6.6 yard/carry. Which hits near his college average of 6.5 yard/carry. My projection for him is 5.5 so there's more normalization coming.
Receiving projection:
In week 2 he had 9 targets for 8 and 55. On the year his average is 6.3 yard/catch. I projected 7.0 yard/catch so expect that number to rise which makes sense because his biggest asset is catching the ball. He will break some long ones. His efficiency was on display. Out of 9 targets he caught 8 for an efficient rate of 89%. For the year he's at 76% efficient rate. My projection was 70%. But he's hovering where he should be which tells me the following:
1. His role is game script proof. Whether the Bears are in a rare lead or behind (which will be most of the time this year) they are using him in every single qtr. See summary below.
2. They want to use him in the red zone. Cohen was the only RB that got red zone opportunities in week 2. Howard was no where in sight. In fact, Cohen got 2 red zone opportunities to Howard's 0. Cohen now leads the RB red zone opportunities 4 to 3. Out of 4 total red zone opportunities on the year 3 have been pass targets. The significance? At some point Tribusky is going to get an opportunity. Cohen is going to be his check down buddy.
3. His skills are translating to the NFL and it's working. In week 2 Cohen gave the bears 4 first downs to Howard's 1 and that also led the team. On the year Cohen leads all Chicago Bears in first downs with 6. Kendall Wright is second with 5.
4. I can't believe I'm typing this, but the metrics match up. Cohen is a three down back. But not your traditional three down back. In week two he got 5 first down opportunities, 6 second down opportunities and 5 third down opportunities.
Cohen's 2017 usage total:
13 first down opportunities
14 second down opportunities
6 third down opportunities
Howard's 2017 usage total:
18 first down opportunities
8 second down opportunities
2 third down opportunities
Translation: Tarik Cohen is being used as a featured all three downs back. Howard is being used mainly for first downs. But Cohen is dominating the second and third down opportunities and he's only 5 behind first down opportunities. Cohen's numbers are normalizing and what we saw in week 2 was his floor. Again, my projections are not outrageous. 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs. What really stands out to me right now is how they are featuring him and the number of opportunities he's getting. If the usage continues he will surpass my projections.
WEEK 2 VS. TB
Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description
1 7:37 0 - 3 3rd-and-5 own 30 caught pass for 7 yards (first down)
1 7:01 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 37 rushed for 2 yards
1 3:56 0 - 3 2nd-and-13 opp 43 caught pass for 9 yards
1 0:10 0 - 10 1st-and-1 own 13 rushed for 9 yards (first down)
2 12:58 0 - 10 3rd-and-4 own 30 caught pass for 14 yards (first down)
2 12:19 0 - 10 2nd-and-10 own 44 rushed for 2 yards
2 6:46 0 - 17 2nd-and-8 own 28 rushed for -3 yards
2 4:49 0 - 17 2nd-and-8 own 42 rushed for -1 yards
2 4:08 0 - 23 1st-and-10 own 25 caught pass for 0 yards
2 3:25 0 - 23 2nd-and-10 own 25 caught pass for 1 yards
3 15:00 0 - 26 1st-and-10 own 25 rushed for 7 yards
3 7:28 0 - 26 2nd-and-8 own 37 rushed for -3 yards
3 6:45 0 - 26 3rd-and-11 own 34 caught pass for 7 yards
4 10:28 0 - 29 3rd-and-2 own 45 caught pass for 10 yards (first down)
4 9:45 0 - 29 1st-and-10 opp 14 target of incomplete pass
4 6:25 0 - 29 3rd-and-10 opp 14 caught pass for 7 yards
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
It'd be fun to keep up with this on a week by week basis to see where your predictions stand. You're right, he is being featured in his own unique way... 62% doesn't look so bad right now.
In order to reach 78 receptions, he needs to average 4.4 ROS. 4.4 ROS would be highly disappointing and a huge change in the way they use him in their game plan; I see him surpassing that unless he gets hurt. I think 90 is quite reasonable.
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