RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

Me either but Meyer said he wanted to pick Toney and since 99% of teams lie the other way I believe it. Past that I'll speculate that his goal was to add a weapon to the offense that had speed and ETN was their BPA for that role. As such I don't think he was drafted to replace Robinson or as an indictment on how the team feels about Robinson, he was drafted to bring a speed based weapon to the offense.

That is my biggest fear regarding ETN that the coach may be a buffoon.

The track record of 1st round RB being relevant for fantasy is very strong but that doesn't mean the coach won't mess this up.

Toney?? That a Gettleman level of mistake and it makes me nervous that Meyer or anyone thinks he is a better player than ETN. GTFO

Anarchy bringing up Gio Bernard is a good example of a cautionary tale of a RB who in my opinion deserved a lot more opportunity than he got despite being the 1st RB selected in his class.

I am still drafting Bernard btw because I believe in his talent.

You guys may be right though and Meyer as well as OC Darrell Bevel continue to use Robinson a lot and they waste their 1st round pick. That seems really unsmart to me but maybe that is what they do.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah I agree it is probably too small and narrow a sample but did Chester Taylor/AP fit this when AP came in as a rookie and blew it up? I seem to remember thinking Taylor was really good and had bad luck by being drafted over like that. I don't think it matters it just popped in there.

Yeah the Vikings didnt need to draft Peterson at all. Chester Taylor was a very good player. Hell they had some other very good RBs behind him as well like Mewelde Moore and another guy I forget atm.

They had a really high pick though and Peterson was available so they took him.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah all of that makes for some pretty random stuff about different teams with a very narrow sample size that will tells not much very useful.

My point is (combined with what the earlier theme of uncertainty and the unknown) that we don't know what Meyer and the Jaguars will do . . . but Robinson was one of the bright spots on the team last year. We have no idea if they will take away a big chunk of Robinson's workload and give it to ETN.

The Jags will likely have more rushing attempts this season (they ranked last last year) and there are a ton of receptions that went to a bunch of Average Joe's in 2020. So it is possible Robinson still gets a decent workload, ETN gets 8-10 carries a game, and ETN takes receptions from guys that were really just along for the ride last season.

The Taylor / AP example was a good one, as both guys were fantasy relevant with both guys on the roster (Peterson ranked 5th while Taylor ranked 19th). We theoretically could see something similar with JAC if their defense is better and they are more competitive.

 

[Biabreakable]

My point is (combined with what the earlier theme of uncertainty and the unknown) that we don't know what Meyer and the Jaguars will do . . . but Robinson was one of the bright spots on the team last year. We have no idea if they will take away a big chunk of Robinson's workload and give it to ETN.

The Jags will likely have more rushing attempts this season (they ranked last last year) and there are a ton of receptions that went to a bunch of Average Joe's in 2020. So it is possible Robinson still gets a decent workload, ETN gets 8-10 carries a game, and ETN takes receptions from guys that were really just along for the ride last season.

The Taylor / AP example was a good one, as both guys were fantasy relevant with both guys on the roster (Peterson ranked 5th while Taylor ranked 19th). We theoretically could see something similar with JAC if their defense is better and they are more competitive.

I agree its possible both are useful for fantasy this season.

To me they are wasting a 1st round pick if they dont give ETN the lions share though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't have the time (or probably the desire) to look it up. But how many times has a team had a RB that averaged 100+ YFS scrimmage in Year X, had the same RB on the roster in Year X + 1, and added a different RB that did better than the the first guy in Year X + 1 (unless there was an injury). That would be difficult to figure out quickly and easily, but I can't imagine that's happened very often.

Seems like a complete waste of time since the specific players in question matter most to that equation, so any data divined from such an expedition would be irrelevant to ETN vs Robinson.

The only measurement that will matter is ETN vs Robinson. And production may depend on usage, obviously. So if Robinson continues to get his same workload it really does tell you anything.

Past performance isn’t often a good predictor for future events, though they do allow for better “educated guesses” so not entirely dismissing statistical analysis.

But in this specific case, what will be relevant is if ETN eats into Robinson’s carries, is as or more productive with them, and whether that causes Robinson’s role to diminish. As this is entirely unpredictable other than “they spent a 1st round pick on him” (facts) and “ETN > Robinson talent-level” (opinion)  then the best we can do is speculate. 

My speculation is that talent wins out in the end, and Robinson’s days of fantasy relevance are limited. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

To me they are wasting a 1st round pick if they dont give ETN the lions share though.

Agreed.

 

[Anarchy99]

I agree its possible both are useful for fantasy this season.

To me they are wasting a 1st round pick if they dont give ETN the lions share though.

ETN likely has more utility in defenses having to play / scheme differently. That could open things up for Robinson and also create more space for the other receivers. It's possible that alone gives ETN the impact Meyer wants even if ETN doesn't become a bell cow runner.

 

[barackdhouse]

but did Chester Taylor/AP fit this when AP came in as a rookie and blew it up?

yeah I remembered right.

Taylor had 303/1216/6 with 42/288 in 2006. 227 FPs in PPR.

AP drafted in 2007 and blows up, but Taylor still had:
157/844/7 and 29/281 in 2007 good for 183 FPs which may not be a terrible result for a guy like James Robinson. 

But ETN and AP are not really much alike and if ETN does blow up as a rookie it will have to be largely in the passing game (which may very well happen) and probably at Robinson's expense in the running game. But there is room for Robinson to be the main (running) back and ETN to be the main (receiving) back and for that to equal decent value in redrafts for ETN in the 4th/5th rounds. Not sure if Robinson holds similar value at his price or not. 

TLDR I have no issues drafting ETN at cost but am not as crazy about Robinson at his, though it is possibly much better than I am giving it credit. ETN isn't necessarily going to eat into Robinson's carries the way a guy like AP did to Taylor. Yet Taylor still got 157 totes. Different era and all that I know. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Seems like a complete waste of time since the specific players in question matter most to that equation, so any data divined from such an expedition would be irrelevant to ETN vs Robinson.

The only measurement that will matter is ETN vs Robinson. And production may depend on usage, obviously. So if Robinson continues to get his same workload it really does tell you anything.

Past performance isn’t often a good predictor for future events, though they do allow for better “educated guesses” so not entirely dismissing statistical analysis.

But in this specific case, what will be relevant is if ETN eats into Robinson’s carries, is as or more productive with them, and whether that causes Robinson’s role to diminish. As this is entirely unpredictable other than “they spent a 1st round pick on him” (facts) and “ETN > Robinson talent-level” (opinion)  then the best we can do is speculate. 

My speculation is that talent wins out in the end, and Robinson’s days of fantasy relevance are limited. 

As I just posted, ETN may take touches away from others and may not be there to take over for Robinson.

JAC could add 100 rushing attempt this year and still wouldn't make it to the league average in rushes. There are plenty of JAGs (pardon the pun) that racked up low receiving totals last year that could go to ETN. The point being, it's possible both Robinson and ETN can be fantasy relevant.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As I just posted, ETN may take touches away from others and may not be there to take over for Robinson.

JAC could add 100 rushing attempt this year and still wouldn't make it to the league average in rushes. There are plenty of JAGs (pardon the pun) that racked up low receiving totals last year that could go to ETN. The point being, it's possible both Robinson and ETN can be fantasy relevant.

fair points, all. I agree it is possible. 

 

[Biabreakable]

As I just posted, ETN may take touches away from others and may not be there to take over for Robinson.

JAC could add 100 rushing attempt this year and still wouldn't make it to the league average in rushes. There are plenty of JAGs (pardon the pun) that racked up low receiving totals last year that could go to ETN. The point being, it's possible both Robinson and ETN can be fantasy relevant.

Their defense would need to do a better job for them to increase their rushing attempts that much I would think considering they were the 2nd worst defense in the NFL last season in terms of points and yards allowed. They were bottom 12 the year before.

Another remarkable thing considering their RBs have done well anyways.

 

[Biabreakable]

yeah I remembered right.

Taylor had 303/1216/6 with 42/288 in 2006. 227 FPs in PPR.

AP drafted in 2007 and blows up, but Taylor still had:
157/844/7 and 29/281 in 2007 good for 183 FPs which may not be a terrible result for a guy like James Robinson. 

But ETN and AP are not really much alike and if ETN does blow up as a rookie it will have to be largely in the passing game (which may very well happen) and probably at Robinson's expense in the running game. But there is room for Robinson to be the main (running) back and ETN to be the main (receiving) back and for that to equal decent value in redrafts for ETN in the 4th/5th rounds. Not sure if Robinson holds similar value at his price or not. 

TLDR I have no issues drafting ETN at cost but am not as crazy about Robinson at his, though it is possibly much better than I am giving it credit. ETN isn't necessarily going to eat into Robinson's carries the way a guy like AP did to Taylor. Yet Taylor still got 157 totes. Different era and all that I know. 

Yeah I paid a pretty high price for Chester Taylor and I was totally happy with that until the Vikings drafted Peterson.

Thankfully I had planned years ahead to make sure I got Peterson with the 1st overall pick that year, and I was a huge fan of his for many years, but it would have been better for my fantasy team if Peterson had gone some where else.

 

[Anarchy99]

Their defense would need to do a better job for them to increase their rushing attempts that much I would think considering they were the 2nd worst defense in the NFL last season in terms of points and yards allowed. They were bottom 12 the year before.

Another remarkable thing considering their RBs have done well anyways.

Like you said about ETN getting used at the spot they drafted him, the same absolutely holds true with Lawrence. Lawrence should be able to do more with the offense than Minshew. The Jags had roughly 80 more rushing attempts two years ago. Factoring in the 17th game this year, adding 100 carries may not happen but they could get close.

 

[Biabreakable]

Like you said about ETN getting used at the spot they drafted him, the same absolutely holds true with Lawrence. Lawrence should be able to do more with the offense than Minshew. The Jags had roughly 80 more rushing attempts two years ago. Factoring in the 17th game this year, adding 100 carries may not happen but they could get close.

I agree 100% that Lawrence should take this offense to a higher level.

He is a rookie though so growing pains expected as well, and that tends to not be good for offensive productivity, but maybe that means they run the ball more? Possible.

I don't know this team well but I don't see a great improvement in their defense coming, so I am expecting a lot of chase scenarios as far as game scripts go.

 

[menobrown]

The point being, it's possible both Robinson and ETN can be fantasy relevant.

Kamara/Ingram, Gordon/Ekeler, Chubb/Hunt, even Taylor/Hines and I'm probably forgetting some but it's not so uncommon seeing two fantasy relevant RB's on the same team. What you refer to as possible I view as probable on this team.

Key is two things IMO. Passing game usage which seems very encouraging from what I've picked up on  and limiting Hyde/other to no more then 10% of the production which if that does not start that way I expect will quickly get to that point.

Last season after the bye week Swift went up to about 11 carries and 3.5 receptions a game. From that point forward he was RB12 in PPG for ROS I believe. Kamara's rookie season after his bye week when they dumped Peterson he came out and averaged 9 carries and  5 receptions a game and with that very limited usage he was a top 5 RB putting up over 20 a game. ETN to me is the mold of both of these players and why I like him more then Robinson because I don't think he'll need a lot of volume to be a top end fantasy RB.

Where I disagree with some is this means doom to Robinson. I will be shocked, not surprised but shocked, if he does not lead the team in carries plus he's a good pass protector who is efficient catching the ball so he'll have opportunities in that capacity was well.

This should not even be considered some kind of bold take or unusual take. They are both being drafted inside the top 7 rounds in about 90% of drafts.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Where I disagree with some is this means doom to Robinson. I will be shocked, not surprised but shocked, if he does not lead the team in carries plus he's a good pass protector who is efficient catching the ball so he'll have opportunities in that capacity was well.

This should not even be considered some kind of bold take or unusual take. They are both being drafted inside the top 7 rounds in about 90% of drafts.

I don’t know if means “doom” but going from borderline RB1 to what might amount to a flex option is likely less appealing for Robinson owners, and could make him a bit of an overdraft at his current ADP in redraft. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I didn't look that closely, but Cole, Conley, Eifert, and Thompson leave behind 150/1600/10 between them. New faces include ETN, Marvin Jones, and Phillip Dorsett (and Tebow I suppose). That leaves plenty for ETN in terms of targets, and some of those plays could flip from passes to rushes.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think James Robinson is better than being labeled as "just an undrafted FA on the offensive depth chart." He was the best offensive player on the Jags last year. Some may say that isn't saying much, but Robinson was really good even when people were focusing on him to stop.

Being the best offensive player on the Jags last year isn't saying much. He certainly got the ball a lot. No RB received a higher % of their teams RB touches than Robinson and he played the 7th most snaps of any RB and that is with him missing 2 games. IMO, while he played admirably but his fantasy production was really just a result of ridiculous volume. He also was fortunate not to have faced a lot of stacked boxes, despite how bad the passing offense was. Robinson faced even or light boxes more than most every NFL RB and struggled against them. He also was poor at breaking off longer runs over 15 yards, doing so at a pretty low rate. I am not a James Robinson believer. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I don’t know if means “doom” but going from borderline RB1 to what might amount to a flex option is likely less appealing for Robinson owners, and could make him a bit of an overdraft at his current ADP in redraft. 

This is where some of us may disagree. IMO, ETN and Robinson will end up pretty even this year in terms of fantasy production . . . which in that case makes the guy getting drafted 2-3 rounds later a better value. How people split up the pie will determine which guy has more fantasy value when factoring where he was drafted in fantasy drafts.

I do take back what I said earlier about ADP from MFL. I searched under all PPR drafts initially. Using redraft PPR leagues only, ETN is going as RB22 / overall 54. Robinson is going at RB28 / overall 74. That makes more sense. If I had to pick one out of those options, I'd lean Robinson. But I might not what either at that spots.

We may see that having two fantasy options on one NFL team may kill off the value for both of them (unless they both see a ton of touches). The best fantasy outcome would be to own the one guy that is healthy and have the other back get dinged and miss time for awhile.

 

[Anarchy99]

Being the best offensive player on the Jags last year isn't saying much. He certainly got the ball a lot. No RB received a higher % of their teams RB touches than Robinson and he played the 7th most snaps of any RB and that is with him missing 2 games. IMO, while he played admirably but his fantasy production was really just a result of ridiculous volume. He also was fortunate not to have faced a lot of stacked boxes, despite how bad the passing offense was. Robinson faced even or light boxes more than most every NFL RB and struggled against them. He also was poor at breaking off longer runs over 15 yards, doing so at a pretty low rate. I am not a James Robinson believer. 

Robinson had a 4.5 ypc average on 17.1 carries a game. Fournette in his time there averaged 3.9 and 18.5 carries. If you want to say neither guy was a difference maker but Robinson performed better than LF, I can get behind that. But IMO Robinson played fairly well considering the rest of the skilled position players left a lot to be desired.

 

[menobrown]

I don’t know if means “doom” but going from borderline RB1 to what might amount to a flex option is likely less appealing for Robinson owners, and could make him a bit of an overdraft at his current ADP in redraft. 

Anyone and all of use who own Robinson long ago made peace with fact he's not what he was last season. That's not so much a focus any longer or part of my thought process, that bus left the station.

I personally don't think he's being overdrafted so much as you got to know what you are buying. You are not buying top 10 upside, at least not injury related upside. You are buying a solid mid to IMO more likely low end RB2.  I think that's about on par for his cost at a hard to fill position. Saying that I'm not excited about drafting him and strongly prefer ETN, I just don't think he's going away in real life or fantasy terms.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is where some of us may disagree. IMO, ETN and Robinson will end up pretty even this year in terms of fantasy production . . . which in that case makes the guy getting drafted 2-3 rounds later a better value. How people split up the pie will determine which guy has more fantasy value when factoring where he was drafted in fantasy drafts.

I do take back what I said earlier about ADP from MFL. I searched under all PPR drafts initially. Using redraft PPR leagues only, ETN is going as RB22 / overall 54. Robinson is going at RB28 / overall 74. That makes more sense. If I had to pick one out of those options, I'd lean Robinson. But I might not what either at that spots.

We may see that having two fantasy options on one NFL team may kill off the value for both of them (unless they both see a ton of touches). The best fantasy outcome would be to own the one guy that is healthy and have the other back get dinged and miss time for awhile.

Given similar ADP, give me the more talented back who’ll get the receptions in PPR. Add in that ETN is a “threat to score from anywhere on the field” as the old cliche goes, and I think he’s likely to justify being taken ahead of Robinson. 

 

[Ilov80s]

A couple of things . . .

Between Florida and OSU, Meyer had two guys that would really be considered heavy usage receiving backs / dual threats. In their most utilized seasons, Curtis Samuel averaged 7.5 carries and 5.5 receptions pergame. And Percy Harvin also averaged 7.5 carries and 5.5 receptions.  Both of them turned in NFL WR that occasionally ran the ball.

That would project to a 120 carries and 94 receptions. He's an explosive player and these would be more high value touches (not going to be the grind the ball HB dive type of runs) I would say it's reasonable to expect him to run the ball at 4.6 ypc and catch the ball at 7.6. That would be 550 rushing, 715 receiving, 94 receptions. We are already at 13 PPR PPG before we ever factor in a single TD. 6 TDs and he is firmly an RB2 in terms of PPG. With some good TD luck (8), a couple explosive plays that get his yards per touch up to more like 5.2 ypc and 8.2 yards per catch and now we are looking at 624 and 770 which would be a back end RB1 in PPG. So even if gets used in that weird manner, there is a lot of room for him to perform really well for PPR as a rookie just because the value of 90+ receptions. 

It sounds like MFL peeps be reaching for him bigtime. I think there’s better value in the 3rd.

My guess is because MFL is so well known as a dynasty platform, we are seeing rookie ADPs inflated there for all formats. 

None of us knows what Urban Meyer is going to do. That is the main reason why projections and perspectives about ETN are so varied. The Jaguars and new coach are not a known commodity either, just making predicting for this team a lot harder than other teams, where there is at least some track record of what they do and with what players.

Also, we should remember Darrell Bevell is the OC. He has an NFL track record. The best bet is to look at what the Lions did last year with Robinson taking on the Peterson role and ETN taking on the Swift role. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Robinson had a 4.5 ypc average on 17.1 carries a game. Fournette in his time there averaged 3.9 and 18.5 carries. If you want to say neither guy was a difference maker but Robinson performed better than LF, I can get behind that. But IMO Robinson played fairly well considering the rest of the skilled position players left a lot to be desired.

Teams wanted the Jags to run the ball with Robinson. Defenses had no fear of him. His average defenders in the box was 6.7, 41st lowest of all NFL RBs. Robinson was under 4 ypc when there was a stacked or an even box which he saw far less than almost any lead NFL RB. He was also 24th among NFL RBs in yards per reception so he wasn't adding much there either. He had one of the lowest breakaway (runs of 15+) run rates of any NFL RB despite seeing lighter than average boxes. He can't make big plays. 

 

[Anarchy99]

That would project to a 120 carries and 94 receptions. He's an explosive player and these would be more high value touches (not going to be the grind the ball HB dive type of runs) I would say it's reasonable to expect him to run the ball at 4.6 ypc and catch the ball at 7.6. That would be 550 rushing, 715 receiving, 94 receptions. We are already at 13 PPR PPG before we ever factor in a single TD. 6 TDs and he is firmly an RB2 in terms of PPG. With some good TD luck (8), a couple explosive plays that get his yards per touch up to more like 5.2 ypc and 8.2 yards per catch and now we are looking at 624 and 770 which would be a back end RB1 in PPG. So even if gets used in that weird manner, there is a lot of room for him to perform really well for PPR as a rookie just because the value of 90+ receptions. 

Samuel averaged 2.7 carries and 5.1 receptions last year. Harvin season highs in the pros  were 3.3 carries and 6.9 receptions per game (skewd because he was hurt all the time). Over Harvin's career, he averaged 1.9 carries and 4.7 receptions per game. 

Both of those guys have been predominantly WRs. Maybe Meyer really is making an effort to make ETN more of a receiver and less of a runner. That certainly differs from some people that have ETN projected with 200 carries.

 

[Ilov80s]

Me either but Meyer said he wanted to pick Toney and since 99% of teams lie the other way I believe it. Past that I'll speculate that his goal was to add a weapon to the offense that had speed and ETN was their BPA for that role. As such I don't think he was drafted to replace Robinson or as an indictment on how the team feels about Robinson, he was drafted to bring a speed based weapon to the offense.

There is no doubt he wanted to add speed. He said in his post draft press conference that the problem with the Jags offense was that they were slow and couldn't make big plays He said it's just bad process to expect to win games with 10-15 play drives and football is all about big plays. He praised ETN's speed. I still see that as a huge indictment of Robinso who is slow and didn't make big plays last year. Robinson is a classic grinder and that's not the direction Urban wants to go. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Samuel averaged 2.7 carries and 5.1 receptions last year. Harvin season highs in the pros  were 3.3 carries and 6.9 receptions per game (skewd because he was hurt all the time). Over Harvin's career, he averaged 1.9 carries and 4.7 receptions per game. 

Sure but I thought we were talking about Urban uses those kinds of players, not how other NFL coaches do. I am just saying if Urban does intend to put ETN into that kind of slash role, it's not really a bad thing for PPR since receptions are so much more valuable than carries. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That would project to a 120 carries and 94 receptions. He's an explosive player and these would be more high value touches (not going to be the grind the ball HB dive type of runs) I would say it's reasonable to expect him to run the ball at 4.6 ypc and catch the ball at 7.6. That would be 550 rushing, 715 receiving, 94 receptions. We are already at 13 PPR PPG before we ever factor in a single TD. 6 TDs and he is firmly an RB2 in terms of PPG. With some good TD luck (8), a couple explosive plays that get his yards per touch up to more like 5.2 ypc and 8.2 yards per catch and now we are looking at 624 and 770 which would be a back end RB1 in PPG. So even if gets used in that weird manner, there is a lot of room for him to perform really well for PPR as a rookie just because the value of 90+ receptions. 

exactly how I see it for upside. 

My guess is because MFL is so well known as a dynasty platform, we are seeing rookie ADPs inflated there for all formats. 

yeah - that makes sense. 

Also, we should remember Darrell Bevell is the OC. He has an NFL track record. The best bet is to look at what the Lions did last year with Robinson taking on the Peterson role and ETN taking on the Swift role. 

That is relevant for sure. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Sure but I thought we were talking about Urban uses those kinds of players, not how other NFL coaches do. I am just saying if Urban does intend to put ETN into that kind of slash role, it's not really a bad thing for PPR since receptions are so much more valuable than carries. 

I meant more from the type of roles he had for backs. How well they do or how that translates to the NFL is debatable. I doubt NFL DCs will just let ETN approach 100 receptions as a rookie. 

 

[TripItUp]

It's all conjecture at this point regarding ETN's volume.   We really can't be certain, hell, Meyer may not even know.

James Robinson is a competent back and preseason beatwriters are saying he hasn't missed a beat.

If I'm betting, I'm betting ETN gets used similarly to Dobbins 2020 at best.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's all conjecture at this point regarding ETN's volume.   We really can't be certain, hell, Meyer may not even know.

James Robinson is a competent back and preseason beatwriters are saying he hasn't missed a beat.

If I'm betting, I'm betting ETN gets used similarly to Dobbins 2020 at best.

I think Swift makes much more sense. If ETN only catches 18 passes I will be absolutely stunned. 

 

[TripItUp]

I think Swift makes much more sense. If ETN only catches 18 passes I will be absolutely stunned. 

I meant in terms of overall usage, agreed he’ll have a lot more receptions than Dobbins.

 

[JohnnyU]

I have one share. Can’t say I’m super excited.  I hope it’s just a phase.

 

[Blackbear]

I think Swift makes much more sense. If ETN only catches 18 passes I will be absolutely stunned. 

Is 60 a stretch given they are projected to not lead much. Lot of two minute drills. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Is 60 a stretch given they are projected to not lead much. Lot of two minute drills. 

I don’t think so. Swift had 46 last year in only 13 games.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Seems like Alvin Kamara’s rookie year (120 carries for 728 yards, 81 catches for 826 yards, 13 TDs) would be an amazing outcome for ETN.   Kamara averaged over 6 ypc - tough to see ETN replicating that.   But the above workload (7-8 carries, 5 catches per game) would probably disappoint folks in here.

 

[Anarchy99]

Seems like Alvin Kamara’s rookie year (120 carries for 728 yards, 81 catches for 826 yards, 13 TDs) would be an amazing outcome for ETN.   Kamara averaged over 6 ypc - tough to see ETN replicating that.   But the above workload (7-8 carries, 5 catches per game) would probably disappoint folks in here.

Bottom line, there aren't any great comps. As a rookie, Kamara played with a HOF QB with a SB winning coach on a first place team with a Top 10 defense . . . with an offense that ranked Top 2 in yardage and Top 4 in points scored. That's about as far removed as you can get from the situation in JAC.

However, perhaps the semi-relevant piece may be that Mark Ingram accounted for 1362 YFS/10 the year prior to Kamara's arrival . . . and 1540/12 with Kamara on the same team. Kamara himself produced 1554/13. The RB workload and team success was so great that Brees saw his passing attempts drop by 85 attempts.

That being said, the chances of ETN and Robinson combining for 3000/25 are pretty non-existent.

 

[Ilov80s]

Bottom line, there aren't any great comps. As a rookie, Kamara played with a HOF QB with a SB winning coach on a first place team with a Top 10 defense . . . with an offense that ranked Top 2 in yardage and Top 4 in points scored. That's about as far removed as you can get from the situation in JAC.

However, perhaps the semi-relevant piece may be that Mark Ingram accounted for 1362 YFS/10 the year prior to Kamara's arrival . . . and 1540/12 with Kamara on the same team. Kamara himself produced 1554/13. The RB workload and team success was so great that Brees saw his passing attempts drop by 85 attempts.

That being said, the chances of ETN and Robinson combining for 3000/25 are pretty non-existent.

Yeah it’s not the Saints. That was a HOF QB, HOF HC and loaded roster. I still contend Swift last year is the proper comp. In PPR Swift was RB 18 last year. In Underdog, ETN has an ADP of RB 21 and on Fantasy Pros RB 35 (oddly he’s 10 spots higher for standard). 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Bottom line, there aren't any great comps. As a rookie, Kamara played with a HOF QB with a SB winning coach on a first place team with a Top 10 defense . . . with an offense that ranked Top 2 in yardage and Top 4 in points scored. That's about as far removed as you can get from the situation in JAC.

However, perhaps the semi-relevant piece may be that Mark Ingram accounted for 1362 YFS/10 the year prior to Kamara's arrival . . . and 1540/12 with Kamara on the same team. Kamara himself produced 1554/13. The RB workload and team success was so great that Brees saw his passing attempts drop by 85 attempts.

That being said, the chances of ETN and Robinson combining for 3000/25 are pretty non-existent.

No disagreement.  What I found interesting was Kamara’s usage.  Basically he averaged 12.5 touches per game as a rookie…..

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah it’s not the Saints. That was a HOF QB, HOF HC and loaded roster. I still contend Swift last year is the proper comp. In PPR Swift was RB 18 last year. In Underdog, ETN has an ADP of RB 21 and on Fantasy Pros RB 26. 

Sure . . . if you think ETN is going to score 10 TD on an offensively challenged team. If Swift only scored 5 TD instead of 10, he would have ranked as RB30 last year. That's how tightly compressed the range of fantasy scoring was last year for the middle of the road RB2s / RB3s was. (And that's usually why I am less concerned about player rankings and more interested in scoring tiers . . . the difference between 8 or 10 backs could be 1 ppg, which in a PPR league is really not that different.)

Speaking of Swift, I have seen reports that he will be the Lions bell cow RB this season, which is fine to suggest. However, he really wasn't an uber heavy carry back in college or as a rookie last year, so who knows what that will mean if they start heaping carries on him.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I have seen reports that he will be the Lions bell cow RB this season

The same reporter also said that Williams would have a substantial role, so take that for what it’s worth. I think Jamaal will be on the field a lot this season for Detroit, not just on passing downs. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Sure . . . if you think ETN is going to score 10 TD on an offensively challenged team. If Swift only scored 5 TD instead of 10, he would have ranked as RB30 last year. That's how tightly compressed the range of fantasy scoring was last year for the middle of the road RB2s / RB3s was. (And that's usually why I am less concerned about player rankings and more interested in scoring tiers . . . the difference between 8 or 10 backs could be 1 ppg, which in a PPR league is really not that different.)

Speaking of Swift, I have seen reports that he will be the Lions bell cow RB this season, which is fine to suggest. However, he really wasn't an uber heavy carry back in college or as a rookie last year, so who knows what that will mean if they start heaping carries on him.

ETN is going lower than where Swift finished last year so you are getting a discount. And yes TD variance is a thing, but let’s not act like Detroit was a great offense last year either. I would think the addition of Lawrence, ETN, Jones, Viska in year 2, new staff can make the Jags a better offense than they were in 2020. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

For anyone that doesn't want to read every post, somewhere between Gio & Alvin.

 

[Anarchy99]

ETN is going lower than where Swift finished last year so you are getting a discount. And yes TD variance is a thing, but let’s not act like Detroit was a great offense last year either. I would think the addition of Lawrence, ETN, Jones, Viska in year 2, new staff can make the Jags a better offense than they were in 2020. 

Clearly things in all these comps are apples and oranges. The Lions scored 377 points last year . . . the Jags 306. And Swift didn't have to share the backfield with someone that averaged 101 YFS per game the season before. Swift this season could have way more touches and easily could score fewer TD. Scoring 10 TD on 160 touches as a RB doesn't happen all that frequently.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For anyone that doesn't want to read every post, somewhere between Gio & Alvin.

Well that certainly clears it all up.  

 

[Tanner9919]

based on links that Faust has posted, beat writers in Jax are saying that Robinson is 'stacking good day on good day'  and that he's 'unstoppable' in camp thus far. Meyer is raving about him.  

I think ETN is going to be somewhere between James White and Gio more than he is Gio and Alvin k. , i.e., a receiver out of the backfield with some occasional carries thrown in. Robinson is going to have better numbers than he had last year.

better QB, better coaches who are fixated on running the football till you die, easy schedule, etc. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

based on links that Faust has posted, beat writers in Jax are saying

imma stop you right there - beat writers often paint rosy pictures this time of year. 

It might be true. I want to see how they play to know what to really believe. 

Unfortunately, we may not know until game 1 how they’ll use Robinson/ETN in Jax. 

and if it’s a split, I still want the dude who’s expected to be used as a receiver in PPR.  Non-PPR it’s probably more challenging of a decision. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah it’s not the Saints. That was a HOF QB, HOF HC and loaded roster. I still contend Swift last year is the proper comp. In PPR Swift was RB 18 last year. In Underdog, ETN has an ADP of RB 21 and on Fantasy Pros RB 35 (oddly he’s 10 spots higher for standard). 

Fantasy Pros should not call their mock drafts ADP.

Its terrible.

 

[Biabreakable]

Clearly things in all these comps are apples and oranges. The Lions scored 377 points last year . . . the Jags 306. And Swift didn't have to share the backfield with someone that averaged 101 YFS per game the season before. Swift this season could have way more touches and easily could score fewer TD. Scoring 10 TD on 160 touches as a RB doesn't happen all that frequently.

It does when they are good.

 

[Ilov80s]

Fantasy Pros should not call their mock drafts ADP.

Its terrible.

There ADP is based on the average ADP/rankings from ESPN, MFL, Fantrax, etc.