Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hmm
I was referring to this
I guess they do have ADP from ESPN, MFL ect as well. I checked the yahoo ADP to their standard scoring and it looks like that checks out.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dahabi
- Start date
I was referring to this
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There have been 10 RB in the past 20 years that have scored 10 times in 160 or fewer touches.
D'Andre Swift 2020
Jeff Wilson 2020
Raheem Mostert 2019
Tevin Coleman 2016
Willis McGahee 2009
Pierre Thomas 2008
Marion Barber 2006
Larry Johnson 2004
Brian Westbrook 2003
Moe Williams 2002
Oddly enough, the Niners had a back do that in back-to-back years.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah my statement about TD production was not about players doing so with so few touches.
Moreso that players who are very explosive tend to score TD more frequently on a per touch basis than players who are not. The supporting cast and system has a huge effect on this as well.
TD one of the most difficult things to predict accurately as far as projections go.
I think ETN will score on a lot of explosive plays and that Robinson is the antithesis to explosive plays.
He doesn't have the breakaway speed which limits his big plays. It is much of the reason why ETN (and more explosiveness) is what the new coaching staff stated early on.
Robinson is very good between the tackles and getting positive yards. He is very quick and had a bunch of 10-ish yard plays throughout the season. ETN is not as good at those aspects of the game. This is a very complimentary pair of RB's for the Jag's. It is really good for the NFL but does muddle the FF landscape.
I think Robinson will still get a significant share of the load because he is good at what he is does and it's something ETN isn't as good at. They will each have a solid role for the year.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
We were talking on a limited workload. So no, I don't see ETN scoring 10 TD In 160 touches playing for JAC.
moleculo
Footballguy
I recently drafted ETN fairly early -mid 5th in a 10 man redraft, PPR. I think he has a lot more upside than guys being drafted in that spot. IMO, you don't pick a RB in the first if you don't plan on using him. I think his floor is somewhere around 1000 combined yards and 40-50 receptions, with upside of taking over as the feature back (i.e. top 10 fantasy backs).
I did draft Robinson later on for handcuff purposes so I'm watching this split closely.
A lot of draft capital invested in the Jaguars? Yes. I hope it pays off.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here's a list of all the NFL first round RBs drafted since 2010. Sure, there were a number of bell cows . . . but there were also guys that didn't get the ball a ton.
I recently drafted ETN fairly early -mid 5th in a 10 man redraft, PPR. I think he has a lot more upside than guys being drafted in that spot. IMO, you don't pick a RB in the first if you don't plan on using him. I think his floor is somewhere around 1000 combined yards and 40-50 receptions, with upside of taking over as the feature back (i.e. top 10 fantasy backs).
I did draft Robinson later on for handcuff purposes so I'm watching this split closely.
A lot of draft capital invested in the Jaguars? Yes. I hope it pays off.
Code:
NAME YR G RSH RSHYD RSHTD REC RECYD RECTD TOUCH FANT PT
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 13 181 803 4 36 297 1 217 140
Josh Jacobs 2019 13 242 1150 7 20 166 0 262 173.6
Saquon Barkley 2018 16 261 1307 11 91 721 4 352 292.8
Sony Michel 2018 13 209 931 6 7 50 0 216 134.1
Rashaad Penny 2018 14 85 419 2 9 75 0 94 61.4
Christian McCaffrey 2017 16 117 435 2 80 651 5 197 150.6
Leonard Fournette 2017 13 268 1040 9 36 302 1 304 194.2
Ezekiel Elliott 2016 15 322 1631 15 32 363 1 354 295.4
Todd Gurley 2015 13 229 1108 10 21 188 0 250 189.6
Melvin Gordon 2015 14 184 641 0 33 192 0 217 83.3
Trent Richardson 2012 15 267 950 11 51 367 1 318 203.7
Doug Martin 2012 16 319 1454 11 49 472 1 368 264.6
David Wilson 2012 16 71 358 4 4 34 1 75 69.2
Mark Ingram 2011 10 122 474 5 11 46 0 133 82
C.J. Spiller 2010 14 74 283 0 24 157 1 98 50
Ryan Mathews 2010 12 157 675 7 22 145 0 179 124
Jahvid Best 2010 15 172 563 4 58 487 2 230 141
Instinctive
Footballguy
I only see 5/17 guys with less than 180 touches (and Mathews had 179). Add McCaffrey if you move the line to 200 touches (197).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That’s roughly 30%. And I don’t have time to look it up, but I’m guessing most of those teams that took a RB in the first did not bring back a RB with almost 300 touches the season before.
moleculo
Footballguy
so ~70% had 200 touches? Last year, RB15-25 were in the 200 touch range, give or take. ETN is being drafted at RB36. Seems to me to be a mismatch here.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Footballguys has ETN's ADP in PPR leagues at 23 (54th overall) in 0 PPR leagues and at 24 (59th overall). IMO, playing on a team with an established back on an offensively challenged team with a rookie QB and a rookie head coach = limited value for where he is being drafted. I have stated my case several times that I think he and Robinson will score close to evenly fantasy wise this year. Robinson is coming off the board at 27/68 in PPR leagues and 26/65 in 0 PPR leagues. I think Robinson will get more carries and goal line looks while ETN will get more use as a receiver. IMO, the two of them dramatically hurts the value of the other.
If the Jags are better and more competitive (certainly open for debate) and can add 75-100 carries over the course of the season above last year's total, then I can see the upside of these to as Robinson getting 250 carries and 40 receptions and ETN getting 125 carries and 60 receptions. That may be too big a workload for the two of them combined (375 and 100) though. Similarly, the past couple of seasons they have struggled to get in the end zone, so I would be conservative on their TD totals.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Remember how you (not you, specifically, just you generally) regretted not taking Antonio Gibson because he just seemed like a WR pretending to be an RB (or whatever the reason was for thinking he wasn't a starting RB)?
Don't make that mistake again.
Don't make that mistake again.
Last edited by a moderator:
moleculo
Footballguy
Instinctive
Footballguy
Also a lot of reliance on this being an offensively challenged team. I think it's much more middle of the road, which leaves plenty of opportunity.
If you gave me "hey you've got an average offense and a 70% chance to get a 200+ touch RB in the mid 5th round, whose only competition is an undrafted guy who admittedly looked good but wasn't drafted by the new coach" I think I'd take it.
If you gave me "hey you've got an average offense and a 70% chance to get a 200+ touch RB in the mid 5th round, whose only competition is an undrafted guy who admittedly looked good but wasn't drafted by the new coach" I think I'd take it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You can call them whatever you want (in addition to drafting whichever players you want). However, the numbers show that the Jags ranked 31st in points scored and 28th in YFS last year. So sure, I'd agree that they would be a middle of the road offense . . . if the league had 60 teams. And generally speaking, rookie quarterbacks and rookie head coaches with no NFL experience whatsoever tend to struggle in their first year. That may all end up not meaning anything at all, but IMO all that should at least be partly relevant and a consideration in predicting how the Jags and ETN will do.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Some friends from Georgia visited us last Sunday. They brought homemade peach cobbler. It’s not exactly pie. There’s crust in there, it’s just not on the top and the bottom like we used to. ETN is a peach cobbler kind of running back. He’s no cherry pie 
but he’s pretty good.
but he’s pretty good.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You were talking about limited workload. I wasn't.
Not sure where this 160 number came from or who etched it in stone.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I'm not projecting what he might have done last year. I'm projecting this year.
If Trevor Lawrence is truly the greatest QB prospect of all time who has excelled at the highest levels against the best competition his entire life, I think there's a reasonable chance it continues.
So it's not reaaalllly about Etienne for you, it seems? It's more about Lawrence and the coaching staff? One thing in their favor is that it would be very difficult to be worse than the prior staff, even if they turn out not to be good. But a mediocre Colts team immediately went 11-5 with Luck as a rookie. So it's not like this is unprecedented. I think a 6-7 win team with a 12-18th ranked offense and a defense in the 22-ish range is pretty reasonable.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Some friends from Georgia visited us last Sunday. They brought homemade peach cobbler. It’s not exactly pie. There’s crust in there, it’s just not on the top and the bottom like we used to. ETN is a peach cobbler kind of running back. He’s no cherry pie
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Come on, you're better than that with the Colts. IND was not trying to win to be able to draft luck. Do the 11 years with double digit wins with Peyton Manning not count for anything?Instinctive said:
Yes, teammates and the skill of other guys on offense matters. Coaching matters. Play calling matters. Roster management and salary cap management matters. General management matters. The Jags have had 1 winning season in 13 years. Could this staff be better? Sure . . . but I would temper my expectations some.
Lawrence might end up an elite player . . . but the rest of the offense may be nowhere near that right now. So yeah, I have concerns about ETN's situation, his coaches, and his supporting cast. I don' think it's unreasonable to factor all that in to ETN's outlook for 2021.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am not sure that made your point though. The Colts were losing a lot before Manning showed up. Then they started winning a lot. The moment Manning left they were the worst team in the NFL. When the next elite QB prospect showed up, they were winning double digits again. It just sounds like it's the QB that matters.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Colts drafted a ton of top talent. Harrison, Faulk, Edge, Wayne, Dallas Clark, etc. and built a great OL. Sure, Manning helped a lot. But I don't see JAC having the same talent level TODAY as some of the players on the Colts roster. Mora and Dungy were established and successful coaches that had won at the pro level. Could the Jags be somewhat better this year? Sure. Maybe they get to 6 wins. Maybe they rank in the bottom 10 instead of the bottom 2 in offense. That certainly would be a step in the right direction. But IMO, the chances are more likely they are still a below average offense than with a Top 10 offense or even an average one.
Forgot to mention . . . the Colts went 3-13 in Manning's first year. Usually, it takes time for teams to turn things around AND SUSTAIN them (meaning some teams have an isolated good season and then go back to mediocrity).
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Inside Training Camp | Travis Etienne Jr. shares how he's adjusting to playbook with Trevor Lawrence
I thought this interview was interesting.
ETN talks about how Lawrence is going to him more than he thinks a QB who was unfamiliar with him would. ETN is Lawrences safety blanket. That they are learning the play book together. The chemistry and time playing together should not be discounted in my view, especially with all of the newness and uncertainty with this team. These 2 players can lean on each other and help each others development.
As far as predicting opportunity goes, I think this matters.
The other thing I found interesting from his comments is that when he is asked about the speed of the game, that hasn't really stood out to him like it does with most rookie players. I think the reason for that is because ETN is very fast.
He does say the most challenging thing for him so far was working with the WR and having to learn new routes that he hadn't been taught to use before, but that he is learning them now and he feels comfortable with what the coaches are asking him to do.
I thought this interview was interesting.
ETN talks about how Lawrence is going to him more than he thinks a QB who was unfamiliar with him would. ETN is Lawrences safety blanket. That they are learning the play book together. The chemistry and time playing together should not be discounted in my view, especially with all of the newness and uncertainty with this team. These 2 players can lean on each other and help each others development.
As far as predicting opportunity goes, I think this matters.
The other thing I found interesting from his comments is that when he is asked about the speed of the game, that hasn't really stood out to him like it does with most rookie players. I think the reason for that is because ETN is very fast.
He does say the most challenging thing for him so far was working with the WR and having to learn new routes that he hadn't been taught to use before, but that he is learning them now and he feels comfortable with what the coaches are asking him to do.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Let's avoid "youre better than that" style personal attacks here. I think we've been having a fantastic discussion, including @Biabreakable, that is helping me at least push on assumptions and improve my projections and expectations. Would hate to ruin it with this kind of distraction. Other than that, this has been a SP discussion more reminiscent of classic times when I found it most valuable than many other threads in the last couple years.
Sharp Football has the QB, OL, and RB rooms as middle third in the NFL, the defense as trash, and the receivers as bottom third. They play one of the weakest schedules in the NFL (particularly against the pass) by virtue of a last-place slate + two Texans games. So they're probably around the 20th best record, and their defense is bad and offense mediocre.
To me, that's a great recipe for some fantasy success for anyone throwing and catching passes.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Tanner9919
Footballguy
some of us were on the j-rob bus long before the Etienne mid foot sprain!
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Linsfranc.
So probably out a couple months and not 100% till next year?
I'm not up to speed on my linsfranc knowledge these days.
I have pick 6 in my upcoming rookie draft. Hmmm
So probably out a couple months and not 100% till next year?
I'm not up to speed on my linsfranc knowledge these days.
I have pick 6 in my upcoming rookie draft. Hmmm
tombonneau
Footballguy
He'll fall to bottom of first with this news IMO. I think Sermon will go ahead of him. If it's really lisfranc this has the makings of a wasted redshirt season. What a bummer.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
A speed guy starting off his career with a Lisfranc injury definitely seems like a bad thing, though this study seems promising for long term.
The results of that very limited sample study shows a small decrease in future performance that did not reach statistical significance. The bad news from that study is that the average time for return from a Lisfranc tear (when the study was done in 2016) was 11.1 months.
ETA; if it’s a mild sprain I think it could be just 3-4 weeks. If it’s more than that, it will require surgery and you’re looking at a lost season. Ian Rapoport seems to indicate they think it is on the milder sign from x-rays but he’ll need a follow up to figure that out I think.
The results of that very limited sample study shows a small decrease in future performance that did not reach statistical significance. The bad news from that study is that the average time for return from a Lisfranc tear (when the study was done in 2016) was 11.1 months.
ETA; if it’s a mild sprain I think it could be just 3-4 weeks. If it’s more than that, it will require surgery and you’re looking at a lost season. Ian Rapoport seems to indicate they think it is on the milder sign from x-rays but he’ll need a follow up to figure that out I think.
Last edited by a moderator:
zamboni
Footballguy
If he’s out for quite a bit, it could damage his dynasty stock if Robinson continues to shine in Etienne’s absence. He may have been drafted in the 1st, but that doesn’t mean Etienne would necessarily put Robinson on the bench when he returns. Robinson has another few years on his contract and the RB window isn’t long.
I might be overstating it, but there is some real risk here IMO.
I might be overstating it, but there is some real risk here IMO.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
devastating
Hopefully everyone here is on the Footballguys Email List. Just sent this:
Last edited by a moderator:
Boston
Footballguy
I honestly don't think the plan has been to put Robinson on the bench...my guess is the hope is it becomes something like Kamara and Murray with the potential for Robinson to be better than Murray and probability that Etienne is not as good as Kamara.
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair point - I agree that Robinson would still be in the game plan. I just figured that Etienne would gradually become the much bigger part of the RBBC pie given that he was Urban’s hand-picked guy. Still could happen, but that could be farther off (if at all).
Last edited by a moderator:
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Thinking optimistically - that it’s not the dreaded Lisfranc but rather a mid-foot sprain…
Last year we saw this with three prominent players:
Calvin Ridley missed 2-3 weeks
Chris Carson missed 4 games
Joe Mixon wax week to week for months and never came back
We’re still in the range of outcomes stage, need more info. Unfortunately with this type of injury rest is the best remedy and it’s difficult to judge the return timeline.
Sometimes..
Last year we saw this with three prominent players:
Calvin Ridley missed 2-3 weeks
Chris Carson missed 4 games
Joe Mixon wax week to week for months and never came back
We’re still in the range of outcomes stage, need more info. Unfortunately with this type of injury rest is the best remedy and it’s difficult to judge the return timeline.
Sometimes..
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Good post, I think this shows the range of outcomes could be all over the place.
I guess the "good" news from looking at this list is that when I go back and look it looks like both Ridley's and Carson's injuries were described as a "mild foot sprain" similar to what they're saying about ETN, while Mixon's was not. Mixon's was cloudy all along, they never really gave any specifics on it. Every report just mentions it as a "foot injury" without any additional details, whereas Ridley/Carson in both cases they were clear X-rays were negative and it was just a sprain, not a tear, similar to what they are saying about ETN.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
After what I saw of that OL, I’m not sure I want to bump Robinson up my board.
That OL was brutal.
That OL was brutal.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If it's a sprain, then we can breathe again.
If it's a tear...it's over before it began.
If it's a tear...it's over before it began.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
They were. I heard the announcers say there were like 2 or 3 guys out on the OL, and they implied the unit would be much healthier week 1. They'll need to be if that was the problem because yeah it was bad.
Similar threads
