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RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)

Did he get an evaluation that suggested maybe he wouldn't be drafted as highly as he expected?  Really struggling to understand his decision.
In his tweet he said he had “unfinished business” he wants to win a championship. To really understand ETN there’s a really good SI article on him that sheds light on how this kid thinks. It IMHO has a lot to do with him feeling under appreciated and overlooked doing the recruitment process. Being put on hold for other backs like Akers has really shaped his thinking.

Great read,

Tex

 
Dr. Dan said:
2nd round rookie pick.should make more than 500k, no? Montgomery made 750k-ish this year as a 3rd round pick

I'm not familiar with booster money amounts... is it conceivable that he found 1 million dollars in his mailbox? 
Probably about 150k

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I mean what woman is going to want to have sex with him when he’s only making $545,000 a year (with a $1MM signing bonus in the bank) as a second round NFL draft pick? Clearly staying in college for the girls is the right choice. 
You know what I like about high school girls?

 
lod001 said:
Fantasy wise, its a great thing if he comes out healthy. He's got a good head on his shoulders. Wants his degree and unfinished business at Clemson. Whoever gets him in FF will get a really good RB with the desire needed to succeed.
Agreed. Great take. It's nice to see young people make good decisions like this. I just wish more would follow suit. But this definitely makes me respect him so much more. As you said, he has a good head on his shoulders, and it's fantastic to be pleasantly surprised like this. Looking forward to seeing how he plays in the NFL after next year.

 
While I think it's silly to be extremely negative toward him returning, I also think its equally silly to assume he is returning for all the right reasons...

If we found out he was getting booster money to stay, does he still deserve so much more respect? 
I just think it’s a poor financial decision - but it’s not our right to be extremely negative toward him if he’s doing because he just loves the school, the college experience and wants to play in another Championship Game more than anything else.

I’m not naive about money exchanging hands but I can’t imagine that’s the reason. How much would any booster really be shelling out? As great as ETN is, there will always be the next RB that can get it done at these major programs. Trevor Lawrence and their stout defense are the only things that really move the needle towards winning a championship. No booster is giving him a $1MM to stay in school.

 
A lot of smart people get degrees to make money. I get that people with a college degree, on average, make what now will be something like a million dollars more during their careers than non-degree earners.

ETN's is in a different situation. He will likely be a 2nd day choice - about as good as it gets for a top but not generational RB talent - this year or next. By waiting, however,  he loses this year of salary (around $500,000) and then (assuming he has a very good pro career under either path), in 2024 he will get, by staying in school for 2020, this $500,000 as th last year of his initial contract instead of the maybe $4 million or whatever he gets per year for his second (and more important) contract. He is also a year older when signing his second contract, which for a typically shorter career RB, will likely decrease the annual value of that most significant career contract over its term. That's the likely earnings loss during his career if he remains a top talent (roughly $4-5 million at current salaries). His post-football career is going to be determined largely by his pro career and isn't likely to be changed much by a college degree (which he can pursue while playing football if he really wants it).

If he now has a terrible senior year or gets badly hurt, the amount of his initial contract will drop dramatically, which has been shown conclusively to drop (on average) his career earnings in the years beyond his first contract. That would be a huge loss compared to earning $500,000 in each of his first 4 years under an initial contract. If get gets so badly hurt that his career is over, he will be that same $500,000 ahead if he'd signed in 2020 and it happens during his first 4 years, and the same $500,000 in 2020 and same $3.5 million or so ahead if it happens during the second contract.  There is virtually no scenario where he isn't hugely ahead financially by foregoing his senior season to sign now, while on top of the world.

He could, of course, become an even better RB than top 2 or 3 in the whole country over the next year. If you follow this stuff, that doesn't happen very often. If he is not a projected as a generational talent at 20, he is not at all likely to become one at 21. The odds of decreasing his draft status by waiting, for someone who is already at the peak of national talent, is far more likely than the odds of increasing his draft status. Most likely, however, is that he is as good as he has appeared to be, and will have a similar projected talent going forward - his projected career value just being dramatically less, for having started earning a year later and having a year fewer of top earning years.

And he can, of course, make he decision to go back for his senior year at the anticipated cost. I'm sure he loves his team and that the desire to win a championship calls to any player who falls short on a top quality team. The odds of any one team winning it all next year, however, are long and the cost of that commitment (in his case) huge. I think most of us just fear that everyone around a kid in this situation wants him back because that increases the schools's situation and coaches careers, and we wonder if the kid is getting the kind of neutral guidance he should on the effect staying is likely to have on his career earnings. We also think he is good enough to play at the next level and would like to see him take that challenge - but that's out issue, not his. Its completely his choice, of course, we just hope he is getting good advice about the consequences.

 
A lot of smart people get degrees to make money. I get that people with a college degree, on average, make what now will be something like a million dollars more during their careers than non-degree earners.
A person with any decent degree damn well better make more than a million dollars more than non-degree earners during their career (excluding those who run their own business), or sue their university for their money back :)

 
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Big fan of ETN, but I agree with most everyone else that he should be going into the NFL.  Wear/tear on legs and chance of injury, all that stuff.  There's insurance policies in case of injury.  Trevor Lawrence has one for next season.

The other side of the coin is there are things that ETN can improve.  When he was a freshman and sophomore, he was a pure runner.  Could break long runs with the best of them, but he wasn't the best pass catcher and wasn't very good at pass protection/blitz pick up.  Improved his soph year, but still had a long way to go before the NFL.  He even stated that he was nervous about catching the ball early on.  Imagine NFL teams don't want to hear that.  

In 2019 he improved in both areas.  He worked on catching the ball out of the backfield and learned to protect much better.  Everyone knows there is a lot more than just running the ball in the NFL.  Learning pass protection schemes and protecting the QB is paramount if a RB wants to stay on the field.  And being able to catch the ball out of the backfield is a huge plus.

Another year gives him time to improve in both areas.  I expect there will be lots of action for ETN in the passing game in 2020.  Not just dumpoffs/screens, but wheel routes and routes that look to exploit matchups with LBs.  

RE: Wear/tear on legs/body.  One thing about playing in the ACC in this window of Clemson success is the fact that ETN doesn't play 4 quarters.  He is often finished early in the 3rd.  If he played entire 4 quarter games he may have already broken some of the records he faces in 2020.  Certainly ACC records.  

That's another reason he won't likely have a chance to win the Heisman.  He gets his yardage/TDs with less carries than some of the others in that conversation.  That said, if Clemson happened to lose a game early on, look for him to get a push from Dabo to win the Heisman.  Same goes for Trevor Lawrence.  But if they are comfortably ahead in games, they likely won't have the numbers to compete.  Clemson doesn't play guys just to pad stats.  

Again, I'm surprised that he opted to return to school.  But wanted to look at it from another perspective.  Another thing is RB windows in the NFL have gotten smaller in recent years.  There aren't many Adrian Peterson type careers out there anymore.  If the window is 4 or 8 years, then what difference does it make if the guy is 21 vs 20 years old when he enters the draft?  He likely isn't going to be a top RB past 30.  He'll have time to get to that second contract. Improve on the things that will make you more successful in the NFL and enter the fray. 

ETN is a special player and I hope the extra year in college gives him the opportunity to come out a more complete RB and be among the top 1 or 2 RBs taken in 2021.  

 
"I'm not coming out for a 2nd round grade" 

🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

Does that mean he's not going to enter the draft next year either?  He's likely not going to get a first round grade next year.  In fact, he will probably grade the same or worse given more wear and tear and a year older. 

A 2nd round grade is basically telling you your SHOULD enter the draft. 

Bad, bad decision. 

And the narrative that the CBA would treat RBs special... 🤣🤣😂🤣

RBs have zero leverage. 

 
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A 2nd round grade is basically telling you your SHOULD enter the draft. 

And the narrative that the CBA would treat RBs special
Yea I figured the guy just liked college life.

I actually had an interesting thought kinda regarding him last week, him and Hubbard.

 A friend of mine was doing some FFPC redraft best balls and told me he saw Chuba Hubbard get drafted in two leagues and asked me "what are we missing". Now I can't find evidence Hubbard got drafted myself but that's another story.

But it did make me check to see if I was somehow missing something, if Hubbard had did something to foul up his eligibility and was not able to enter the supplemental draft. Found nothing of course but that's what got me to my next thought.

As you pointed out the new CBA does very little for RB's. I think performance based pay is a little increased, and second round picks are now eligible but not till season 4, cap space in general should increase next year but that's all I could find to remotely help RB's.

So here is what I'm getting at.

I never heard Chubba or Etienne cite the possible new CBA as a reason to stay. But if it was, and now that they know, could they not do something to lose eligibility and enter the NFL draft? I can't recall anyone trying to lose eligibility on purpose and they'd need to do it in a way that would damage their draft stock.

 
Lol, that would be AWESOME if RBs figured out a loophole.  Basically the Kareem Hunt route to get off a rookie deal, but just go ahead and start before entering the league? 

😂

I hope that starts to happen because it is hilarious and the NFL may be accidentally incentivizing it. 

 
Not to try and see something that isnt there, but this seems like a red flag to me regarding his character. 

The "I'm special" "I'm great" attitude that we see from some players. I'm not sure I want thay headache, I've got enough of that already on my roster (Diggs). 

But in all seriousness... the NFL isnt drafting RBs in the high 1st round any more. The times have changed and RBs are disposable, in general, so no need to spend a high 1st or even a low 1st on them. Edge rushers, OL, QBs, and even WRs are more valuable as 1st round picks. Especially when you consider that DEs and OTs are some of the highest paid players in the NFL after QB. It makes sense theyd be 1st round picks to get the 5th year option. 

ETN thinking so highly of himself that he will enter the league classified as an "older" rookie rb, and expect to be a 1st round pick is laughable. It's a yellow flag to me about his character. 

These RBs need to wake up and realize the times have changed, the NFL has moved on, you're not as valuable as you think... 

Bell found that out the hard way. Gurley showed why teams need to be cautious with backing up a dump truck of cash for a RB. Zeke is the only one who has legitimately cashed out.

It'll be really telling what happens with the 2017 class as they approach their extensions. 
It could also be that he wants to remain with his college teammates and compete for a national title.  He may say that if he are a 1st round grade I'll come out, but not for a second I want to be with my teammates.  I don't see the issue at all here.

 
Some guys like being the big man on campus, which is ok, but it shows ETN isn’t trying to maximize career earnings. 

 
Some guys like being the big man on campus, which is ok, but it shows ETN isn’t trying to maximize career earnings. 
If we're being honest, how many football players are actively thinking about maximizing career earnings.  They hire people to do that for them.  Maybe he has bad advisers, or maybe he's ignoring good advice.  Who knows, but I think we can all agree the decision/statement is questionable. 

 
Not to try and see something that isnt there, but this seems like a yellow flag to me regarding his character. 

The "I'm special" "I'm great" attitude that we see from some players. "I am better than what everyone says."

The NFL isnt drafting RBs in the high 1st round any more. The times have changed and RBs are disposable, in general, so no need to spend a high 1st or even a low 1st on them. Edge rushers, OL, QBs, and even WRs are more valuable as 1st round picks. Especially when you consider that DEs and OTs are some of the highest paid players in the NFL after QB. It makes sense theyd be 1st round picks to get the 5th year option. 

ETN thinking so highly of himself that he will enter the league classified as an "older" rookie rb, and expect to be a 1st round pick is laughable. It's a yellow flag to me about his character. 

These RBs need to wake up and realize the times have changed, the NFL has moved on, you're not as valuable as you think... 

Bell found that out the hard way. Gurley showed why teams need to be cautious with backing up a dump truck of cash for a RB. Zeke is the only one who has legitimately cashed out.

It'll be really telling what happens with the 2017 class as they approach their extensions. 
I actually see it as the exact opposite.  I seem him as mature enough to not jump for money and he still has something he wants to accomplish in college.  That is not necessarily a bad thing. 

 
again, if it were a 3rd/4th round grade I could see it. He is unlikely to get a massive increase in his grade.

maybe you're right here... it was just my first impression of this. 
I just don't see the grade as being end all be all.  It's just a guess by the scouting community.  He could go higher or lower.  It is likely he doesn't get a higher grade staying in school but again it's just a guess.

I could easily seem a guy say if I get a 1st round grade I will go and anything else I have something else I want to do in college so I will stay.  I don't begrudge a guy for wanting to stay in school.  It is a risk but it is up to him to take that risk.  It just doesn't hurt his character for me. 

 
I don't begrudge him, it's just an obviously suboptimal financial decision.  That's a yellow flag for me too - suboptimal decision making in other areas of life have a way of influencing dynasty value negatively. 

 
I don't begrudge him, it's just an obviously suboptimal financial decision.  That's a yellow flag for me too - suboptimal decision making in other areas of life have a way of influencing dynasty value negatively. 
Huge difference in suboptimal decision making comparing starting your professional life vs  going back for another college year to poor decisions like drug/abuse/etc. 

 
Huge difference in suboptimal decision making comparing starting your professional life vs  going back for another college year to poor decisions like drug/abuse/etc. 
True.  Bad decisions like doing drugs are orders of magnitude less dumb than leaving millions on the table.

 
Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline writes that Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne "lacks the true breakaway speed."

Pauline digs Etienne's size at 5-foot-10, 210 pounds, as well as his productivity, but then there's that nagging speed question. Scouts have told the analyst that 4.55 seconds in the 40-yard dash is about Etienne's range. That's certainly not a disqualifying mark, but it's also not one which would boost the Clemson standout's stock to any real degree. Pauline's colleague, Andrew DiCecco, recently mocked Etienne into the second round, the No. 38 pick to be precise. Etienne's slot for the spring draft figures to be in that sort of gray area around the end of Round 1 into the beginning of Round 2.

SOURCE: Pro Football Network

Jul 2, 2020, 12:03 PM ET

 
So where does he go in the next year's class? Is he considered in the discussion for 1.1?

 
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So where does he go in the next year's class? Is he considered in the discussion for 1.1?
Well its interesting because before we knew that he wouldn't declare, he was getting a ton of votes in the polls. Right there with Johnathan Taylor and Swift.

So based on that I would assume he will be the top RB in the 2021 draft class.

I was discussing this here a few days back and the way people value ETN has changed over the last few months. So I am not sure about that now.

 
So where does he go in the next year's class? Is he considered in the discussion for 1.1?


Well its interesting because before we knew that he wouldn't declare, he was getting a ton of votes in the polls. Right there with Johnathan Taylor and Swift.

So based on that I would assume he will be the top RB in the 2021 draft class.

I was discussing this here a few days back and the way people value ETN has changed over the last few months. So I am not sure about that now.
A senior RB is always less valuable than a junior declare all else being equal

I am sure the hype will pick up again closer to the draft and he is the top RB favorite but IMO Jamarr Chase is a clear 1.01 ahead of him in 1 QB and I think some other recievers may have a leg up as well

That said: RB is a premium position so as the draft gets closer I don’t doubt his position will rise for the majority in relation to WRs

Don’t know if it’s enough to pass Chase

 
September 15, 2020

Etienne had 17 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown against Wake Forest and added three receptions for 47 yards.

ANALYSIS
It was a workman-like performance from Etienne, who churned out 6.0 YPC, reached the end zone, and caught all three of his targets. His 17 carries would have tied for his season high from a year ago, which may be a sign that Etienne will be fed more this year. However, with Citadel coming to town Saturday, Etienne may be in for light work as the Tigers look to get their reserves some added game reps.
 
Still have absolutely no idea why this kid went back to school. Guess he doesn't really like money.
IIRC he was only given a 2nd round grade by the draft advisory board which is generally pretty accurate with predicting these things. As it turns out only CEH was a 1st round pick at 32 then you had Taylor, Swift and Dobbins go in the 2nd round. So the advisory board telling him that seems in line with how teams valued the top RBs.

I am guessing he was hoping to improve his draft stock by returning to college.  I think it is hard for any RB to do that right now with market pressures shifting RB value down the draft board.

 
Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne ran the ball 17 times for 102 yards with a touchdown in a 37-13 blowout victory over Wake Forest on Saturday. 

In Etienne's final opener with the Tigers, the 5-foot-10, 210-pound tailback showed well while adding a two-yard touchdown in the third quarter. This could have been a much bigger game if Clemson would have needed their bellcow, but this contest was over at halftime. Etienne should put up similar numbers but in limited action next Saturday when they take on The Citadel. 

Sep 12, 2020, 11:13 PM ET


Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne ran eight times for 68 yards in a 49--0 drubbing of The Citadel on Saturday. 

The Tigers -- expectedly -- dominated this start from snap one, and Etienne didn't have to do much. He was still able to put up a decent number of yards despite the limited touches. Not much more to say, really. Etienne (5'10/210) is one of the top tailbacks in the country -- maybe the best -- and there was no reason to risk an injury against a bad FCS program. He'll likely have considerably more run on October 3 against Virginia. 

Sep 19, 2020, 7:11 PM ET

 
Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne earned 14 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown while catching five passes for 114 yards and a touchdown in Saturday's 41-23 win over Virginia. 

Everyone expected Etienne to be a force in the run game for Clemson. His efforts in the pass game, though not terribly surprising, are what really takes his game to the next level, though. Etienne not only eclipsed 100 yards, but was Clemson's leading receiving receiver in the match, besting even WR Amari Rodgers. Expect Etienne to be a key part of Clemson's game plan against Miami next week. 

Oct 4, 2020, 12:47 AM ET

 
Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne handled 17 carries for 149 yards and two scores while catching eight passes for 73 yards in Saturday's 42-17 win over Miami. 


There is not a better RB in the country right now than Etienne and he proved it once again over the Hurricanes. Every time Etienne (5'10/210) touched the ball, it seemed he was allowed to get into space and turn on that acceleration that allows him to rip past every defender. Etienne's 72-yard spring was by far the longest play of the game, topping Miami QB D'Eriq King's longest run of 56 yards. Furthermore, Etienne's eight receptions led the Clemson offense. While that may be partly because weather conditions forced shorter passes, Etienne still played out of his mind. 

Oct 10, 2020, 11:38 PM ET
 
Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne carried the ball just 11 times for 44 with a score and caught two passes for 29 yards in a 73-7 blowout win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. 

The Tigers were able to put up 73 points against the Yellow Jackets despite taking the foot off the pedal in the second half. Even with just 11 carries, Etienne (5'10/205) was able to find the end zone on a three-yard plunge with 3:10 left in the first half to make it 45-7 Clemson. Etienne has now scored five rushing touchdowns in these first five games, and added one as a receiver. He should score again -- possibly multiple times -- in a probably blowout win next Saturday over Syracuse. 

Oct 17, 2020, 3:29 PM ET

 
Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne had 20 carries for 84 yards and a score while catching seven passes for 140 yards and another score in Saturday's 34-28 win over Boston College.

During the game, Etienne passed NC State's Ted Brown to become the ACC's all-time leading rusher. Today, he also broke an NCCA record by scoring a touchdown in a 42nd different game. Etienne had a first-half fumble that was the result of D.J. Uiagalelei handing the ball off too high -- outside of that, he was about perfect today. Etienne's rushing exploits are well-known. It's cool to see him continue to make strides as a receiver -- he now has 29 catches in five games after posting a career-high 37 receptions last year.

Oct 31, 2020, 4:19 PM ET

 
Clemson senior RB Travis Etienne ran for a touchdown and 28 yards on 18 carries and caught eight passes for 57 yards in a 47-40 loss to Notre Dame in double overtime. 

This was not one of Etienne's best games, despite the rushing score. The ACC's all-time leader in rushing yards failed to handle a pitch from freshman quarterback DJ Uiagalelei that was essentially intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Outside of that score, the 5-foot-10, 205-pound tailback found very little success against the Notre Dame front, and while he had a good amount of catches, most of them were for short yardage. Clemson and the Tigers get a week to refresh before taking on Florida State next Saturday. 

Nov 7, 2020, 11:46 PM ET

 
Do we still feel good about him being the #1 dynasty prospect next year (IIRC he was the presumptive #1)?

Pretty sure I can get the #1 overall pick plus another 1st (it'll cost me Chubb but it's a rebuild). Like every team I'm searching for RBs but the bird in the hand with Chubb is a nice start. 

After the debacle that was this year's RB crew, I'm leery of the guys coming out next year. 

 

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