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RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dahabi
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
Not historically, but doesn't necessarily mean he wouldn't if he had someone he had that much faith in. Good coaches adjust based on personnel and schemes.
Whether he has that much willingness to ride Etienne certainly remains to be seen though, for sure.
Blick
Footballguy
Great to hear, but I'm going to put this in the coach speak pile.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's not as bad as people make it out to be.
13: 329 touches for lead back
14: on pace fpr 262 before injury
15: on pace for 294 before injury
Lots of RBBC with Philly until 19-20
19: 229
20: on pace for 279 before injury
ETN last year after JRob left ETN was on pace for 296.
ETA, sorry in editing, I messed it up and lost some info. Fixed now.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
This has been my main concern that the coach might hold ETN back from reaching his full potential.
As Ilov80s points out however this may not be Pedersons adamant philosophy but rather a product of the players he had available leading to how he utilized RBs in the past.
ETN may be talented enough for him to diverge from that previous pattern.
I dont consider what he said in the quotes from the article to be coach speak in the form of trying to motivate a player lacking confidence or something like that. What he says is very specific about what he wants ETN to improve and that he is seeing ETN do what they are coaching him to do and that he believes if ETN does that consistently it could lead to the yardage totals he mentions.
I have thought all along that ETN was a more talented RB than Harris and that the Steelers made a mistake selecting Harris before him.
That said for fantasy its hard to argue with the historical record of opportunity the Steelers give to their starting RB compared to almost any other team in the NFL.
ETN has already proven to be the better RB on a per touch basis. If the number of opportunities evens out more between them my opinion about that may be proven further.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
10-Team Redraft PPR....
Mid 2nd you have Pollard, Jacobs, Henry
Late 2nd thru Mid/Late 3rd...
RS, Patriots Offense, get some!
Najee Harris coming off a rough '22 campaign
Etienne is the RB 12 off the board in this area
Breece Hall-RB13
Joe Mixon-RB14
Kenny Walker-RB15
Aaron Jones-RB16
Anyone want to do a compare and contrast on all these guys?
Mid 2nd you have Pollard, Jacobs, Henry
Late 2nd thru Mid/Late 3rd...
RS, Patriots Offense, get some!
Najee Harris coming off a rough '22 campaign
Etienne is the RB 12 off the board in this area
Breece Hall-RB13
Joe Mixon-RB14
Kenny Walker-RB15
Aaron Jones-RB16
Anyone want to do a compare and contrast on all these guys?
FFCollusion
Footballguy
Someone somewhere proposed what they call a 'Juggernaut' season for RBs. This is not just a #1 overall finish, but it's a dominant season where a RB has to score at least 350 fantasy points. Now, I'm unsure how much this matters yet, but this year I decided to take it into account with the intention of measuring it's accuracy moving forward. So, this is not something I inherently invest in at the moment, but I am interested enough, in that I compiled all of the data for the upcoming 2023 season, and have created the following chart, so that at the end of this season, I can look back, and measure the merit of the idea personally. I'll try to do this for the next 3 years and track the results, but no promises.
Anyways, long story short, the original article writer went back to 2011, tracked every RB with 350+ fantasy points and tried to reverse calculate the similarities and/or predictive measures by which these seasons can be identified, hopefully, before they happen. To be determined.
I'll boil down the entire article for you into a sentence. Be 26 or younger, drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft, the first 28 picks of fantasy drafts, be fast, catch the ball well, and play for a team that wins at least 8 games.
Each of those 6 categories has tiers, in which were rated on a scale of 1-3, and the further you are away from the optimal, the less likely you are to be a juggernaut. The goal is to have a score of 0, each point is counted against you, not for you.
Here is what I put together:
postimg.cc
Now , I added a 7th criteria which is NFL years, because I thought I noticed a trend. With the assistance of BaoBou, there seems to be a peak of RB production in their 2nd NFL years, and a high level of output through the 6th year, and a noticeable decline begins in year 7. I have not factored this into the data, it's more for my own personal curiosity, and I'll be paying very close attention to Mixon and Barkley this year.
All of that to say, Etienne is the only 1 score RB who can be drafted outside of the first 2 rounds. Barkley and Bijan are drafted in the 1st, Stevenson and Najee in the 2nd. More important, Etienne's "1" point is ONLY from his fantasy ADP, which to me, is the absolute least valuable of all categories. He meets the top tier of every other single metric. Additionally, although it's technically his 3rd year in the NFL, it will only be his 2nd NFL season played, which also correlates to the trend I added.
Etienne is 1 of, if not THE only running back, who has me considering a Hero RB approach this year, rather than a Zero RB approach that I am accustomed to.
Just thought I would share the data with anyone interested in Etienne.
Anyways, long story short, the original article writer went back to 2011, tracked every RB with 350+ fantasy points and tried to reverse calculate the similarities and/or predictive measures by which these seasons can be identified, hopefully, before they happen. To be determined.
I'll boil down the entire article for you into a sentence. Be 26 or younger, drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft, the first 28 picks of fantasy drafts, be fast, catch the ball well, and play for a team that wins at least 8 games.
Each of those 6 categories has tiers, in which were rated on a scale of 1-3, and the further you are away from the optimal, the less likely you are to be a juggernaut. The goal is to have a score of 0, each point is counted against you, not for you.
Here is what I put together:
Untitled — Postimages
Now , I added a 7th criteria which is NFL years, because I thought I noticed a trend. With the assistance of BaoBou, there seems to be a peak of RB production in their 2nd NFL years, and a high level of output through the 6th year, and a noticeable decline begins in year 7. I have not factored this into the data, it's more for my own personal curiosity, and I'll be paying very close attention to Mixon and Barkley this year.
All of that to say, Etienne is the only 1 score RB who can be drafted outside of the first 2 rounds. Barkley and Bijan are drafted in the 1st, Stevenson and Najee in the 2nd. More important, Etienne's "1" point is ONLY from his fantasy ADP, which to me, is the absolute least valuable of all categories. He meets the top tier of every other single metric. Additionally, although it's technically his 3rd year in the NFL, it will only be his 2nd NFL season played, which also correlates to the trend I added.
Etienne is 1 of, if not THE only running back, who has me considering a Hero RB approach this year, rather than a Zero RB approach that I am accustomed to.
Just thought I would share the data with anyone interested in Etienne.
Attachments
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Nice post! I can confirm the 7th category from my research into this that the first 6 seasons of a RB career being the most productive of their careers on average, which also lines up with the players age.
There is one very big outlier to this which is Priest Holmes.
My research was not focused on these uber productive seasons the way this is, but rather seasons that made some difference as measured by them providing some VBD advantage.
Categories like fantasy ADP, speed, receptions and number of wins by the players team were not things I evaluated, but make sense intuitively with the big outlier being Derrick Henry.
It seems to me that the total number of opportunities, rushing attempts and receptions are of critical importance to achive such a high number of points and I wonder why this isn't one of the categories, but receptions is? Maybe I need to read the article further for understanding of that
In regards to ETN that is really my only question. The volume of opportunities he has.
I am pretty confident that he will provide value at his current ADP even if he doesn't finish as a top 5 or the #1 RB.
Intetesting stuff for sure though and thanks for sharing.
There is one very big outlier to this which is Priest Holmes.
My research was not focused on these uber productive seasons the way this is, but rather seasons that made some difference as measured by them providing some VBD advantage.
Categories like fantasy ADP, speed, receptions and number of wins by the players team were not things I evaluated, but make sense intuitively with the big outlier being Derrick Henry.
It seems to me that the total number of opportunities, rushing attempts and receptions are of critical importance to achive such a high number of points and I wonder why this isn't one of the categories, but receptions is? Maybe I need to read the article further for understanding of that
In regards to ETN that is really my only question. The volume of opportunities he has.
I am pretty confident that he will provide value at his current ADP even if he doesn't finish as a top 5 or the #1 RB.
Intetesting stuff for sure though and thanks for sharing.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think the idea of the juggernaut RB or as another fantasy person has labeled it, "legendary upside" is really important. Those are the players that totally tilt fantasy seasons. It's nice to have the RB10 in ppg. That's a nice sold weekly starter but he's probably scoring like about a 1-1.5 points more per game than the RB 20. Last year, there wasn't really a big difference between James Conner (RB10) and Miles Sanders (RB18). Even though it sounds like an RB1 vs RB2 is so significant. It's not really. You know what did matter? Ekeler, CMC, Henry and Jacobs who were scoring basically 4-5 ppg higher than "RB1s" like Conner and Aaron Jones. That can be even more pronounced when you get seasons like Gurley, CMC, Kamara, etc. have had in the past where they are hitting more like 6-8 more ppg.
For a position that is inherently risky like RB, why chase a low floor or a "low risk" player? If you are going to take the risk, take the big risk. Take the player with the sweetest payoff. You get busted for robbing a bank, you are going to get the same charge whether you stole $10,000 or $1,000,000.
For a position that is inherently risky like RB, why chase a low floor or a "low risk" player? If you are going to take the risk, take the big risk. Take the player with the sweetest payoff. You get busted for robbing a bank, you are going to get the same charge whether you stole $10,000 or $1,000,000.
rockaction
Footballguy
And you just totally convinced me on how to approach my next pick in a draft I'm doing as we speak. Thank you.
eighsse2
Footballguy
He totally convinced me of something else that I can't discuss on a public forum.
rockaction
Footballguy
He totally convinced me of something else that I can't discuss on a public forum.
Pick the right bank.
I mean, they're failing at an uncomfortable rate in the U.S. That's what I mean. Yeah. Put your money in the right bank.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ETN is a dude I likely won’t target in redraft, but will take if the value is right and the pick suits my build (say, WR, WR, WR, TE, ETN, or something like that - ETA: I know this won’t happen, which is my point)
He’s a dude I’m happy to have a share of in dynasty because I managed to get him for an asset that depreciated almost immediately, so if ETN is a RB2-3, I’ve turned a profit.
But he’s not a dude I’ll pursue in my other 2 dynasty leagues, and was more than happy to take RhS a round later in a recent start-up.
I do believe he has fringe RB1 upside if things break right in JAX. The talent is there. But there are a lot of mouths to feed.
He’s a dude I’m happy to have a share of in dynasty because I managed to get him for an asset that depreciated almost immediately, so if ETN is a RB2-3, I’ve turned a profit.
But he’s not a dude I’ll pursue in my other 2 dynasty leagues, and was more than happy to take RhS a round later in a recent start-up.
I do believe he has fringe RB1 upside if things break right in JAX. The talent is there. But there are a lot of mouths to feed.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
ETN is going in Round 5?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I hear this about so many players as a negative and most of the time I sit and wonder what’s so special about his surrounding cast versus half of the other teams in the league.
I would hardly say Jacksonville is loaded at the skill positions. They’re solid but I don’t see anything of note really.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Maybe in a 6 team league. I have him squarely in round 3.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Like I said, “if the value is right”, meaning he slips due to people fading him.
Which probably means I won’t get him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I have a hard time seeing him fall past round 3.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm currently doing a draft and he's fallen out of Round 3 in 5 of the 7 drafts similar to mine. It's a huge league I'm in. It's TE Premium, so that skews things a bit.
His ADP is probably around 4.04 or so in the leagues.
He went 4.04, 5.03, 3.05, 4.02, hasn't been drafted and they're on 4.07, hasn't been drafted and they're on 3.07, and 4.03 (my division with my 4.03).
So he's pretty consistently falling into the early-to-mid-fourth round.
His ADP is probably around 4.04 or so in the leagues.
He went 4.04, 5.03, 3.05, 4.02, hasn't been drafted and they're on 4.07, hasn't been drafted and they're on 3.07, and 4.03 (my division with my 4.03).
So he's pretty consistently falling into the early-to-mid-fourth round.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My only redraft is an IDP, with a fairly high average FF IQ. Lots of teams fade RB anyway, the top IDP tend to go in the late 4th/early-mid 5th so I could easily see ETN fall to the middle of the 5th in that format.
When I posted that earlier I was thinking in that context, but whatever.
If he’s there late 4th, AND it suits my bulls, AND other RB options I like more are off the board, I could see taking a flier on him.
IMO he’ll return fair value at that price.
But wouldn’t want him at ADP if that’s 3rd round.
rockaction
Footballguy
I wasn't really commenting on your comments, HSG. I was just providing context for the discussion going on. You don't need to justify taking or not taking Etienne to anyone. You also don't need to get penned in by "I'll draft everyone at value." Of course you will. Or even maybe not. I have guys I just DND unless they fall three-five rounds, which is essentially calling them an absolute DND, because most people don't just steer clear of a guy absolutely.
Either way, just thought people might be interested in that. I think you were right in saying he's not necessarily a third-round pick. And the league, as massive as it is? Everybody knows their football. It's a football outlet that will remain nameless.
Either way, just thought people might be interested in that. I think you were right in saying he's not necessarily a third-round pick. And the league, as massive as it is? Everybody knows their football. It's a football outlet that will remain nameless.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Ridley, ETN...Christian Kirk? Zay Jones??? Come on now. I know Kirk has some talent but, if Ridley picks up where he left off (and it sounds like he looks very good in camp), Kirk is the one fighting for relevance in this offense.
Either way no one is competing for ETN's share.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Reportedly Tank has shown he’s a better receiver than expected in camp.
As such, Tank is literally coming for some of ETs share.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Just picked up ETN at 4.03 in that league I was talking about thanks to ilov80s steadfast devotion. LOL. I'm already worried about Bigsby, but don't really care. ETN will rise to the top like cream on coffee. Let's roll, fellas!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am also worried about Bigsby.
For one, there’s a ton of positive news about him, and I’m already expecting a larger share in the RBBC than initially.
For another, ETN was drafted by the last regime, while Tank was drafted by this one.
Again, I’m an ETN shareholder. I believe in the talent.
I do have concerns though.
That said, 4.02 is a nice value.
rockaction
Footballguy
We shall see how it goes. I could have had a Pollard/Hall/Etienne RB room but I picked Higgins at 3.10. I didn't have a Hall/ETN decision to make because the guy after me picked Hall in between my draft slots.
I'm already regretting picking Higgins over Hall. If I drafted sans emotion, I could have Diggs/Brown/Hall/Etienne, which is a world-beater when you look at it, especially if the Jets stand pat at RB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Given the context/choice I’m going Higgins/ETN there.
Hall is in his 1st year back from ACL, which historically hasn’t been ideal for running backs. I expect at least an easing in for the 1st half of the season.
All things being equal, I’d prefer the dude who isn’t already injured. Any time I’ve taken an injury discount on a player I’ve suffered for it.
My $.02
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ps - I hope I’m wrong on Hall, as I’m counting on him in a 16 team dynasty where my entire RB room is Hall, JCook, AJD, and uh, Deon Jackson
Chaka
Footballguy
Every RB has someone who will share part of the load. Do you honestly think Bigsby is going to eat into ETN's share more than any other feature back's backup?
If Bigsby is the reason to shy away from ETN, I'm not shying away from ETN.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not necessarily, no - but for ETN to deliver on a 3rd round redraft ADP, I need his receptions to go up, not down.
The recent commentary by JAX that Tank could eat into ETN’s receptions gives me pause in that light.
It’s less about being high or low on either player and more about trying to read the tea leaves on how they’ll be utilized, and how that might impact value for positive or negative.
Chaka
Footballguy
That feels like an overthink. Maybe a tenth of a percent consideration at best.
massraider
Footballguy
"had 2 catches during team drills that both went for at least 30 yards. (His) versatility as a power runner, pass-catcher out of the backfield, and space technician bode well for the offense"
Do you know which RB the above statement was about?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - I saw it on twitter. Did not really move the needle on Latavious Murray.
But Latavious Murray is a 30-something journeyman, while Tank Bigsby is a dude the Jags brain trust just drafted.
These things aren’t the same. The Bigsby hype seems a little more legitimate.
massraider
Footballguy
Definitely not. Just an illustration of what happens when we don't get NFL for 4 months. We crawl through the Twitter desert, begging for a scrap of a highlight from practice.
I have questions about ETN passing game usage, but it has nothing to do with Bigsby. Trevor rarely checks down, seems like, and they just added Ridley.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also concerns, yes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’ve mentioned before I don’t really check ADP since I do one long time redraft - which is now at 14 teams - and would have considered him in Round 2 (obviously depending on who else is available) so a bit surprised.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think we're witnessing everybody following camp news about Bigsby here. I've been surprised, too, but the other divisions are ahead of ours by like a day, so I've seen it happen in real time. I probably took him almost the earliest of the seven divisions I'm privy to. His ADP, according to Fantasy Points' aggregated data from the last fourteen days of the FFPC TE Premium leagues, is forty-two, so the 3.06 is really where he's going. I just think the camp news further depressed his value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
What’s interesting is ETN is also having a great camp. Coaches effusive with praise, beat writers noting his decisiveness & burst. He reportedly looks more comfortable in the offense. He’s waiting for plays to develop & showing good vision,
Shiny new toy gets the most attention I guess.
zamboni
Footballguy
As am I, although Bigsby could also be another preseason darling to not be all that when the games matter - we’ll see.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the dream for ETN owners
massraider
Footballguy
Also, who you take over him? I don't really likes any of the other backs you might need to take if you don't take ETN.
FFCollusion
Footballguy
I had a friend at RotoWorld, well, BettorInGreen now, make this for me, based on my hunch.
Age — Postimages
Here is what he offered with the data:
So this is a subject I've already looked into from various angles, both regarding which age and which career year RBs have the highest performance. A couple things to note before we look at the data.
1) career year is sort of misleading as many of these RBs have already logged hundreds of carries in College, and some haven't - and nobody knows how to value those, so we conveniently ignore it.
2) there is massive variance in all the data and you have to do some averaging and aggregation or again, the data points will be misleading.
3) rushing yards and receiving yards are not the same. Rushing has a lower peak age, and it has a lot more damage to the body. I've tried to slice and dice that, and still the patterns were not always conclusive.
4) injuries further distort the picture. You can go for game averages, but that's also not entirely fair.
With all of that said, here's some data I collected in 2019. I have several similar sheets, with slightly different looking graphs, collected over the years; I can do the exercise again, but it's quite painful (there is no direct API so you have to run subsequent queries and copy/paste data into an excel), so look at what I did and try to formulate the question as precise as you can.
With that preamble I know you're the only one still reading (and possibly foaming at the mouth), so let's continue the 2 of us.
I took 500 RB data points between 2009-2018, 500 yd seasons and over, ordered by season "yards combined" (rush+rec), then using a pivot table grouped the seasons per RB and ordered them by the total over that period (top 3 were Shady, Forte and Chris Johnson).
If you throw that grouped data in a graph, Chris Johnson 2009 sticks out a lot (2509 yds) and seems to suggest that the 2nd career year is special somehow. If however you compare each year to the longer term average, suddenly Doug Martin is the most extreme point and seems to suggest rookie seasons are the most interesting. Clearly, neither of those are the full story. I think generally if we ignore the extreme outliers, year 2-5 are probably the peak of most top careers (lesser players peak and disappear earlier).
Here's the chart that supports your idea the most, but reader beware. And let's define a clear question I can search for a bit better.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
When I’m at 23 - presuming I started with JJ or another WR at 1.02 - I’m usually looking at Stevenson, ETN and Najee. I’m inclined to go WR-WR at that turn (typically Waddle or Olave + Smith or Higgins.)
If I’ve taken CMC then the double down is an easy choice. But I’m full PPR, I still like the idea of landing 3 of the Top 13-14 WRs. I’m probably out on Travis; owned him last year and he kind of faded in the 2nd half. Nice back but not really seeing Top 5 upside scenarios for him in 2023.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hmm.
I had a friend at RotoWorld, well, BettorInGreen now, make this for me, based on my hunch.
Age — Postimages
Here is what he offered with the data:
So this is a subject I've already looked into from various angles, both regarding which age and which career year RBs have the highest performance. A couple things to note before we look at the data.
1) career year is sort of misleading as many of these RBs have already logged hundreds of carries in College, and some haven't - and nobody knows how to value those, so we conveniently ignore it.
2) there is massive variance in all the data and you have to do some averaging and aggregation or again, the data points will be misleading.
3) rushing yards and receiving yards are not the same. Rushing has a lower peak age, and it has a lot more damage to the body. I've tried to slice and dice that, and still the patterns were not always conclusive.
4) injuries further distort the picture. You can go for game averages, but that's also not entirely fair.
With all of that said, here's some data I collected in 2019. I have several similar sheets, with slightly different looking graphs, collected over the years; I can do the exercise again, but it's quite painful (there is no direct API so you have to run subsequent queries and copy/paste data into an excel), so look at what I did and try to formulate the question as precise as you can.
With that preamble I know you're the only one still reading (and possibly foaming at the mouth), so let's continue the 2 of us.
I took 500 RB data points between 2009-2018, 500 yd seasons and over, ordered by season "yards combined" (rush+rec), then using a pivot table grouped the seasons per RB and ordered them by the total over that period (top 3 were Shady, Forte and Chris Johnson).
If you throw that grouped data in a graph, Chris Johnson 2009 sticks out a lot (2509 yds) and seems to suggest that the 2nd career year is special somehow. If however you compare each year to the longer term average, suddenly Doug Martin is the most extreme point and seems to suggest rookie seasons are the most interesting. Clearly, neither of those are the full story. I think generally if we ignore the extreme outliers, year 2-5 are probably the peak of most top careers (lesser players peak and disappear earlier).
Here's the chart that supports your idea the most, but reader beware. And let's define a clear question I can search for a bit better.
Thanks for this. I see the first chart in your post. You make some reference to some other charts but I did not see links to those in the post that you are referring to.
As far as questions, what I started out with was wondering how important the rookie season was for a RB career? This was prompted by discussion about Todd Gurleys rookie season and that he was coming off of a significant injury in college that would likely affect his performance in his rookie year.
I used 25 years of data for my sample size, with the intent for the sample to be as large as possible and to try to eliminate unintentional errors from small sample size selection bias. I also wanted to have Emmitt Smith in my sample as I knew his career was the longest of any RB providing useful stats for fantasy football.
What I found from doing that was the rookie season was the least productive of the RB first 6 seasons on average of the entire sample. Obviously some RB do have their best seasons in their rookie year, but looking at this for the entire group, seasons 2 to 6 were more productive than season 1.
The other question I was trying to answer was how many fantasy relevant seasons does a RB have in their career?
By fantasy relevant seasons how I defined that was by a combination of PPG and VBD where if a player scored either enough PPG in 10 or more games to be considered making a difference for a "season" or they provided 15 VBD or more in a season or both.
What I found was the average number of fantasy relevant seasons of a RBs career by this definition was 2.
Now some RB were certainly providing more than two fantasy relevant seasons and using the sample I was able to identify some things that make this more likely to occur, which were NFL draft position and entering the NFL at a younger age, but by my definition of fantasy relevant seasons the sample also included many RBs who were only relevant for one season (or sometimes only 10 games of a season) which was a large part of why the average number of fantasy relevant seasons was two.
I will try to link the whole post for you later. Just going off of memory right now.
Here is a link to my post about this study back in 2015.
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