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RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)

ETN might be like Pollard...more efficient on less touches. ETN has seemed to wear down the last two seasons.
I do think he got overworked last year, especially with pointless up the gut runs behind an OL that couldn't create any lanes. I think the issues with ETN last year had more to do with the whole Jags offense falling apart than anything with him. 2 years ago, he didn't appear to wear down. He finished 2022 with 100 yards rushing in 3 of the last 6 games. He was great in the playoffs for them.

ETN definitely had a slump for a month in 2022 from mid November to December...and this was with James Robinson getting most of the work to begin the season.

ETN was my favorite player to watch in 2022, but it did look like he would get heavy legs in the 20 carry games...which I didn't expect from some such a young RB with so much juice.

Or maybe I was just confusing his duck like gait with tired legs.
2022 he got hurt during that slow stretch I believe. Left the Ravens game early and wasn’t quite right for a couple weeks if remember correctly. But in general I agree they shouldn’t be using him like Zeke or Henry.

They have to get him the ball in space more. Have to.

ETN was 4th in the NFL in broken tackles on receptions tied with AJ Brown and Tyreek.

 
ETN might be like Pollard...more efficient on less touches. ETN has seemed to wear down the last two seasons.
I do think he got overworked last year, especially with pointless up the gut runs behind an OL that couldn't create any lanes. I think the issues with ETN last year had more to do with the whole Jags offense falling apart than anything with him. 2 years ago, he didn't appear to wear down. He finished 2022 with 100 yards rushing in 3 of the last 6 games. He was great in the playoffs for them.

ETN definitely had a slump for a month in 2022 from mid November to December...and this was with James Robinson getting most of the work to begin the season.

ETN was my favorite player to watch in 2022, but it did look like he would get heavy legs in the 20 carry games...which I didn't expect from some such a young RB with so much juice.

Or maybe I was just confusing his duck like gait with tired legs.
2022 he got hurt during that slow stretch I believe. Left the Ravens game early and wasn’t quite right for a couple weeks if remember correctly. But in general I agree they shouldn’t be using him like Zeke or Henry.

They have to get him the ball in space more. Have to.

ETN was 4th in the NFL in broken tackles on receptions tied with AJ Brown and Tyreek.

As an aside, I'm surprised Pollard is that high on the list based on what we saw last year.
 
Total coach speak here.

Yeah we have heard the coach say these things before and the coach even has a previous history of splitting reps with multiple RBs.

But the coach never had a RB as good as ETN before either. Actions speak louder than words.
The thing is they did nothing to give themselves a situation where they have other options to rely on. Bigbsy was atrocious last year and they did nothing of note with FA or the draft. I am actually ok with them cutting back on his worklaod a bit- he's not Derrick Henry. Use him more in the passing game, more on the edge and save his body with less up the gut runs.
 
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Total coach speak here.

Yeah we have heard the coach say these things before and the coach even has a previous history of splitting reps with multiple RBs.

But the coach never had a RB as good as ETN before either. Actions speak louder than words.
The thing is they did nothing to give themselves a situation where they had other options to rely on. Bigbsy was atrocious last year and they did nothing of note with FA or the draft. I am actually ok with them cutting back on his worklaod a bit- he's not Derrick Henry. Use him more in the passing game, more on the edge and save his body with less up the gut runs.
Agreed.
 
My gut says Etienne sees a slightly smaller workload than last year, not because of the guys behind him, but because its a good way to help his effectiveness.

I think a fair expectation for Etienne is:
230 carries (267 last year)
1000 yards (1008 last year)
4.3 YPC (3.8 last year) I think he splits the difference between 22-23 seasons.
7 rush TDs (11 last year)

50 catches (58 last year)
400 yards (476 last year)
8 YPR (8.2 last year)
1 TD (1 last year)

He's my RB11.
 
Total coach speak here.

Yeah we have heard the coach say these things before and the coach even has a previous history of splitting reps with multiple RBs.

But the coach never had a RB as good as ETN before either. Actions speak louder than words.
The thing is they did nothing to give themselves a situation where they had other options to rely on. Bigbsy was atrocious last year and they did nothing of note with FA or the draft. I am actually ok with them cutting back on his worklaod a bit- he's not Derrick Henry. Use him more in the passing game, more on the edge and save his body with less up the gut runs.
Agreed - I think a bit fewer touches would make him fresher and hopefully more efficient. Hopefully he’ll get more of the higher fantasy quality touches in receptions. The biggest concern though is whether he loses goal line touches.
 
Positive from the article, ETN and CMC are the only two RBs with 1400 yards each of the last 2 seasons. Pretty accomplished stuff.

The negative was they mentioned the Jags resigning their 2 OGs from last year and then said the interior OL is much improved. Huh?
 
My gut says Etienne sees a slightly smaller workload than last year, not because of the guys behind him, but because its a good way to help his effectiveness.

I think a fair expectation for Etienne is:
230 carries (267 last year)
1000 yards (1008 last year)
4.3 YPC (3.8 last year) I think he splits the difference between 22-23 seasons.
7 rush TDs (11 last year)

50 catches (58 last year)
400 yards (476 last year)
8 YPR (8.2 last year)
1 TD (1 last year)

He's my RB11.
I think there’s a world where his rushing totals are reduced as you describe, but his receiving gets a ~10% boost.

So
63/440/? Receiving.

I think RB9-12 is the correct range of outcomes, so 11 is fair,
 
This talk of role reduction makes me think I need to pick up Keilan Robinson. Kind of like when they cut Fournette. It wasn't because of the old backup, it was the new guy (James Robinson). If Robinson isn't the top backup, I'd expect more of the same from ETN.
 
Positive from the article, ETN and CMC are the only two RBs with 1400 yards each of the last 2 seasons. Pretty accomplished stuff.

The negative was they mentioned the Jags resigning their 2 OGs from last year and then said the interior OL is much improved. Huh?
Ezra Cleveland was traded to them late in the season and it likely wasn't a easy adjustment but with a full training camp with the team that should help and he has graded well as a run blocker in the past with the Vikings. I'm familiar with him.

The center from Buffalo expected to be a improvement but I am not familiar with that player.
 
The offense as a whole just felt super mid last year. Lawrence only had 21 Passing TD's. The pass catchers didn't exactly instill fear into the heart of the defense. They may have relied on him a little too much.

I agree, he's a guy you want closer to 225 carries than 270 carries. I believe they'll actually cut his rushing load some. I also think they'll try to use him more in the passing game. Just starting on rankings, and didn't even realize his YPC had gotten so low.
 
Interesting note (and I realize some of this is health related) but here are the players with at least 1400 yards the last 2 seasons

ETN, CMC, Tyreek, Lamb, AJ Brown. End of list.
So you're saying ETN is underrated and is actually elite? Has the Jags offensive line and overall offence improved since last season?
 
ETN is very Barry Sanders-esque, in that he seems to have an awful lot of 1-2 yard runs.
Might be because the Jaguars OL isn't very good

Oh yeah, for sure. On most of those he doesn't have anywhere to go. It's just hard to count on him breaking a few every game (although he does seem to).
His splits from last season are very jarring. I like his opportunity but I don't love the player. Still one of the few RBs with 300 touch upside.
 
ETN is very Barry Sanders-esque, in that he seems to have an awful lot of 1-2 yard runs.
Might be because the Jaguars OL isn't very good

Oh yeah, for sure. On most of those he doesn't have anywhere to go. It's just hard to count on him breaking a few every game (although he does seem to).
His splits from last season are very jarring. I like his opportunity but I don't love the player. Still one of the few RBs with 300 touch upside.

Yes, the 300 touch upside you mention is the reason and I'm struggling to decide if I'll take him at 2.08 in a 12-man ppr draft. Pacheco and MHJ are my other top considerations.
 
How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
I got him right around here. All 3 of these guys should get 40+ receptions IMO, just a matter of efficiency and TDs. I am fading ETN slightly tho bc his YPC is so bad and its hard to realistically envision double digit TDs again.
 
How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
He was RB3 last year. First half of the year was great albeit a little TD heavy. The team as a whole kind of fell off going from 8-3 to 9-8. Lawrence being hurt and the O-line injuries didn't help anyone. It is my understanding they upgraded their O-line - I could argue the WR room should perform much better this year.

I consistently see him going around Kyren/Henry/Pacheco/Achane. I have gone back and forth the last few weeks on all these guys, but Pacheco IMO is the best 2nd rd target.
 
hate citing YPC in any context but
  • 2022 5.1
  • 2023 3.8
Yards Before Contact
  • 2022 3.4
  • 2023 2.1
Yards After Contact
  • 2022 1.7
  • 2023 1.7
PFF Team Run Blk Grade
  • 2022 47.0 30th
  • 2023 40.6.31st
 
How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
In Yes, you are sleeping on him relative to those other two, particularly Achane.

ETN is on a very short list of running backs with a reasonable shot at 300 plus touches.

His splits last year were definitely disappointing but he's still the clear number one running back on a decent tim team that appears to have the potential for their offense to grow significantly relative to the past couple of years.

I know Tank Bigsby has been getting some decent press this year and is clearly the number two running back but nothing I have seen, read or heard suggests that he's going to be anything other than a change of pace every third or fourth drive to give ETN a rest.

I don't see Pacheco or Achane having the potential for 300 touches, particularly with Pacheco's hard-running style.

I know ETN isn't a sexy pic, but he should absolutely be in a tier around Gibbs, Henry, Kyren, Jacobs etc.
 
How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
He was RB3 last year. First half of the year was great albeit a little TD heavy. The team as a whole kind of fell off going from 8-3 to 9-8. Lawrence being hurt and the O-line injuries didn't help anyone. It is my understanding they upgraded their O-line - I could argue the WR room should perform much better this year.

I consistently see him going around Kyren/Henry/Pacheco/Achane. I have gone back and forth the last few weeks on all these guys, but Pacheco IMO is the best 2nd rd target.

How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
In Yes, you are sleeping on him relative to those other two, particularly Achane.

ETN is on a very short list of running backs with a reasonable shot at 300 plus touches.

His splits last year were definitely disappointing but he's still the clear number one running back on a decent tim team that appears to have the potential for their offense to grow significantly relative to the past couple of years.

I know Tank Bigsby has been getting some decent press this year and is clearly the number two running back but nothing I have seen, read or heard suggests that he's going to be anything other than a change of pace every third or fourth drive to give ETN a rest.

I don't see Pacheco or Achane having the potential for 300 touches, particularly with Pacheco's hard-running style.

I know ETN isn't a sexy pic, but he should absolutely be in a tier around Gibbs, Henry, Kyren, Jacobs etc.
Looks to me like Henry is the one you guys are sleeping on. Henry could be the #1 RB this year. Featured back in a top rushing offense, and an all-time great GL runner on a team consistently near the top in GL carries. He might score 20 on this team.
 
hate citing YPC in any context but
  • 2022 5.1
  • 2023 3.8
Yards Before Contact
  • 2022 3.4
  • 2023 2.1
Yards After Contact
  • 2022 1.7
  • 2023 1.7
PFF Team Run Blk Grade
  • 2022 47.0 30th
  • 2023 40.6.31st
It's concerning that he went down in efficiency the second year after his foot surgery. You would expect him to be better than the first year.
 
I know Tank Bigsby has been getting some decent press this year and is clearly the number two running back but nothing I have seen, read or heard suggests that he's going to be anything other than a change of pace every third or fourth drive to give ETN a rest.
I think this is a bigger risk than many are considering. Seems like Pederson wanted Bigsby to take on a bit of the load last year, but he flopped right out of the gate with fumbling issues. Seems to have gotten back in favor a bit more, but we'll see. Also seems like the coaching staff wants to lessen ETN's role a bit though because of that declining efficiency last year with a big workload.
 
I know Tank Bigsby has been getting some decent press this year and is clearly the number two running back but nothing I have seen, read or heard suggests that he's going to be anything other than a change of pace every third or fourth drive to give ETN a rest.
I think this is a bigger risk than many are considering. Seems like Pederson wanted Bigsby to take on a bit of the load last year, but he flopped right out of the gate with fumbling issues. Seems to have gotten back in favor a bit more, but we'll see. Also seems like the coaching staff wants to lessen ETN's role a bit though because of that declining efficiency last year with a big workload.
On the efficiency numbers, his ypc was almost 50% higher than each of the other two RB's. Which hints at overall bad run blocking. But I don't know.
 
How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
He was RB3 last year. First half of the year was great albeit a little TD heavy. The team as a whole kind of fell off going from 8-3 to 9-8. Lawrence being hurt and the O-line injuries didn't help anyone. It is my understanding they upgraded their O-line - I could argue the WR room should perform much better this year.

I consistently see him going around Kyren/Henry/Pacheco/Achane. I have gone back and forth the last few weeks on all these guys, but Pacheco IMO is the best 2nd rd target.

How are people viewing ETN this year? I see him looped in with the Pacheco/Achane tier but I think I like both of those guys over him.

Am I sleeping on Travis?
In Yes, you are sleeping on him relative to those other two, particularly Achane.

ETN is on a very short list of running backs with a reasonable shot at 300 plus touches.

His splits last year were definitely disappointing but he's still the clear number one running back on a decent tim team that appears to have the potential for their offense to grow significantly relative to the past couple of years.

I know Tank Bigsby has been getting some decent press this year and is clearly the number two running back but nothing I have seen, read or heard suggests that he's going to be anything other than a change of pace every third or fourth drive to give ETN a rest.

I don't see Pacheco or Achane having the potential for 300 touches, particularly with Pacheco's hard-running style.

I know ETN isn't a sexy pic, but he should absolutely be in a tier around Gibbs, Henry, Kyren, Jacobs etc.
Looks to me like Henry is the one you guys are sleeping on. Henry could be the #1 RB this year. Featured back in a top rushing offense, and an all-time great GL runner on a team consistently near the top in GL carries. He might score 20 on this team.
I love Henry. It's no disrespect to be in that tier. But take a look at the Ravens offensive line. Three positions filled by a who's-who of "Who???". And it is very tough to project Staley to be in the lineup for more than 11-13 games and they don't have a notable swing tackle to step in.

He's also a non factor in the passing game.

Great player, great potential scoring opportunities but there are plenty of concerns as well.
 
How does the Jaguars OL and overall offence project this season? Mid-tier?
They have been hovering around top ten in scoring the past two years (13th & 10th).

It's hard to say, particularly because I think Lawrence is starting to look a lot more like Mark Brunnel than Patrick Mahomes. But there is definitely reason to believe this is the kind of young team that could make a jump into the top ten in scoring, possibly top five if they get a few bounces.
 
hate citing YPC in any context but
  • 2022 5.1
  • 2023 3.8
Yards Before Contact
  • 2022 3.4
  • 2023 2.1
Yards After Contact
  • 2022 1.7
  • 2023 1.7
PFF Team Run Blk Grade
  • 2022 47.0 30th
  • 2023 40.6.31st
It's concerning that he went down in efficiency the second year after his foot surgery. You would expect him to be better than the first year.
Did he though? Looks like run blocking got way worse, he got hit 1.3 yards sooner, and his YPC dipped by 1.3 yards. I am checking my math to not look dumb, but am I missing something?

I think he's a steal at ADP.
 
I know Tank Bigsby has been getting some decent press this year and is clearly the number two running back but nothing I have seen, read or heard suggests that he's going to be anything other than a change of pace every third or fourth drive to give ETN a rest.
I think this is a bigger risk than many are considering. Seems like Pederson wanted Bigsby to take on a bit of the load last year, but he flopped right out of the gate with fumbling issues. Seems to have gotten back in favor a bit more, but we'll see. Also seems like the coaching staff wants to lessen ETN's role a bit though because of that declining efficiency last year with a big workload.
The coach staff stuff may be true, but his efficiency hasn't declined with workload. The run blocking and playcalling was total garbage. They had a weak middle of the line and an injured QB and they called possibly the most up the middle runs of any team.

It blows my mind that they didn't get a new OC. Dumb franchises be dumb.
 
hate citing YPC in any context but
  • 2022 5.1
  • 2023 3.8
Yards Before Contact
  • 2022 3.4
  • 2023 2.1
Yards After Contact
  • 2022 1.7
  • 2023 1.7
PFF Team Run Blk Grade
  • 2022 47.0 30th
  • 2023 40.6.31st
It's concerning that he went down in efficiency the second year after his foot surgery. You would expect him to be better than the first year.
Did he though? Looks like run blocking got way worse, he got hit 1.3 yards sooner, and his YPC dipped by 1.3 yards. I am checking my math to not look dumb, but am I missing something?

I think he's a steal at ADP.
They had injuries on their offensive line and other key players including Lawrence who had a high ankle sprain he played through after missing 1 game.

Many vocal people around here who have hated ETN going back to college and ETN can't do enough good things to change their tune.

I don't care. I just keep taking ETN.
 
The Coachspeak Index
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RB Travis Etienne Jr.:

“He and I spoke even during the game Sunday, and then afterwards. And I just reassured him that we’re gonna continue to give him the football. And I think that’s the next best thing, to get him right back on that horse, as they say, and keep feeding him the ball.”

Pederson has a 70% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak
 
The Coachspeak Index
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RB Travis Etienne Jr.:

“He and I spoke even during the game Sunday, and then afterwards. And I just reassured him that we’re gonna continue to give him the football. And I think that’s the next best thing, to get him right back on that horse, as they say, and keep feeding him the ball.”

Pederson has a 70% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak
I believe him.
 
The Coachspeak Index
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RB Travis Etienne Jr.:

“He and I spoke even during the game Sunday, and then afterwards. And I just reassured him that we’re gonna continue to give him the football. And I think that’s the next best thing, to get him right back on that horse, as they say, and keep feeding him the ball.”

Pederson has a 70% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak
No Tank you
 
The Coachspeak Index
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RB Travis Etienne Jr.:

“He and I spoke even during the game Sunday, and then afterwards. And I just reassured him that we’re gonna continue to give him the football. And I think that’s the next best thing, to get him right back on that horse, as they say, and keep feeding him the ball.”

Pederson has a 70% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak
No Tank you
That'd be a Big-sby mistake.
 
The Coachspeak Index
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RB Travis Etienne Jr.:

“He and I spoke even during the game Sunday, and then afterwards. And I just reassured him that we’re gonna continue to give him the football. And I think that’s the next best thing, to get him right back on that horse, as they say, and keep feeding him the ball.”

Pederson has a 70% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak
Honestly I don't hear much of anything here, even if it were 100% reliable. Of course they're going to keep giving him the ball. He didn't lose his job in one game. But is a 50-50 thing going to continue? Or do they plan on keeping it closer to last year's split? The quote doesn't really speak to that.
 

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