RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)

[menobrown]

I know some people have referenced him as a trade candidate but I think right now he has no trade value, as in the Jags might be able to give him away but he's not getting anything back. Personally I don't think they could give him away for free right now but as a Jags beat writer recently pointed out perhaps his has has some value closer to the trade deadline where picking up his salary won't be as prohibitive and need might evolve.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have him at 143 carries for 571/3 plus 13% target share for 57/481/1 receiving. Bigsby getting 238 carries, another 150 between Lawrence and Tuten.

Why?
New head Coach and Etienne has logged seasons of 220 and 260 carries
If Jax is going with Bigsby and the other guy who was having a nice camp, they need to move Etienne

Etienne has proven he's a lead RB, he didn't have a good season last year.
I'm optimistic he outplays his ADP of the late 7th to the 8th round, should be a nice RB3 target that you will actually use during the season

I respect your projections, just want to point out some things others might be looking at
Love to see Etienne in a more dynamic offense on another team even he was brought in initially as a change of pace guy.
Not sold on Bigsby yet

Here is the key info that made me project him that way:

1. It seems like he's pretty much only taking 3rd down work in camp
2. Bigsby was #3 (3.74) in yards after contact per rush last season, while Etienne was terrible (2.3) and Jac doesn't generate a lot of yards before contact (Bigsby was getting 0.8, Etienne actually got around 1.4 and still had a full yard less per carry overall)
3. He had a bad season in real terms (not FF) in 2023 also, Bigsby just wasn't ready for the NFL / ball security challenges popped up
4. He's getting worse. Last 3 seasons efficiency - 5.1 YPC - 3.8 YPC - 3.7 YPC (for reference Bigsby was at 4.6 last year on more rush attempts) and like I said above the underlying metrics like after contact are declining too

So I gave him 30% of rushes and 50% of rushes to Bigsby. I actually think they improved the OL a little and they face an easier run defense schedule projection so I bumped him up to 4 YPC

What evidence is there that he'll go back to being the lead back and playing all three downs?

Thank you, excellent post

They're paying Etienne $6.5M vs $1.4M for Bigsby, if Etienne is just a 3rd down RB, that's a terrible reflection of the GM and coaches there
You could be right, there's definitely going to be a split
White and Bucky Irving were splitting a lot of time in the beginning of the season last year, that changed about halfway thru the season and White actually was effective when he had the ball

 

[menobrown]

They're paying Etienne $6.5M vs $1.4M for Bigsby, if Etienne is just a 3rd down RB, that's a terrible reflection of the GM and coaches there

Not able to agree with this line of thinking since they did not sign him to this deal, they just inherited it.

 

[travdogg]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

Coen worked wonders with Tampa’s run game last year.

He did, but that also started up front. TB has a pretty good OL, the Jags OL is awful.

 

[Ilov80s]

They're paying Etienne $6.5M vs $1.4M for Bigsby, if Etienne is just a 3rd down RB, that's a terrible reflection of the GM and coaches there

Not able to agree with this line of thinking since they did not sign him to this deal, they just inherited it.

Agree. The GM/coach didn't have anything to do with the ETN or Tank signing, contract, etc. That isn't to say Tuten is going to the guy this year. He's most likely a plan to replace ETN next year or at least to see if they think he can do it.

 

[Grahamburn]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

Coen worked wonders with Tampa’s run game last year.

He did, but that also started up front. TB has a pretty good OL, the Jags OL is awful.

Right, but we didn't really know that going into the season. The Bucs were the 32nd ranked run game in the NFL in 2022 and 2023. Doesn't get much more awful than that. They DID add a 1st round center in Graham Barton, who replaced Robert Hainsey, unironically now the Jags' center. And of course Bucky Irving. But Rachaad White's ypc went up to 4.3 after a meager 3.6 and 3.7 his prior two years.

Does Etienne's 3.8 get the same bump?

 

[travdogg]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

Coen worked wonders with Tampa’s run game last year.

He did, but that also started up front. TB has a pretty good OL, the Jags OL is awful.

Right, but we didn't really know that going into the season. The Bucs were the 32nd ranked run game in the NFL in 2022 and 2023. Doesn't get much more awful than that. They DID add a 1st round center in Graham Barton, who replaced Robert Hainsey, unironically now the Jags' center. And of course Bucky Irving. But Rachaad White's ypc went up to 4.3 after a meager 3.6 and 3.7 his prior two years.

Does Etienne's 3.8 get the same bump?

It could, though, I think Mauch breaking out in year 2, just like Goedeke did, also played a role. Maybe 3rd year 1st rounder Anton Harrison has a breakout for the Jags, maybe recently extended Walker Little keeps improving. Its certainly possible, just not something I want to count on, and I especially think nobody is going to be close to Tristan Wirfs.

I do think Etienne is their most talented RB, he's the only one I think has NFL starter talent, I think Bigsby is a COP guy, I think Tuten is a fast guy, who offers little else. But that's still 3 guys compared to 2, and I don't think any of them have Irving's ability. I'm expecting it to be like 35-35-30 to start, but if anybody takes off its likely Etienne. I like him as an RB4. I will say, I think the Jags offense (and team) are being underrated, there is upside if somebody takes a pure lead role, but as much as I like Etienne more than the other 2, I'm not confident the Jags do.

I have seen a lot of people talking about the Jags having given the Browns a top-10 pick next year, or being no threat, and I very much disagree with that. I think the Jags offense is good (though pass 1st) and I think they are a real threat to win the division, as I think Houston is pretty overrated.

 

[Grahamburn]

No problem. This is why we have takes! I like to get out in front of offensive breakouts though and mine the value. Coen has had upticks everywhere he has gone and showed it first hand in Tampa. I think there's a lot of value to be had in Jacksonville.

I'm very anxious about a regression for my Bucs without him calling the shots.