RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE (1 Viewer)

[ponchsox]

@Anarchy99 warned everyone what the usage would be. People still didn’t listen and drafted him rounds too early.

 

[EBF]

Wanted to take him in my redraft league. He went about a half round ahead of where I was hoping to get him (late 30s).

For people who engage with FF primarily from a dynasty perspective, there's a danger in being too early on a player and letting dynasty evaluations bleed into DFS and redraft decisions. Even if Henderson ends up being great, that doesn't mean it's going to happen from day one or even year one. Go take a look at the rookie season usage of LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore for an unpleasant reality check.

Personally, I think he's the best skill player on the Pats (excluding the ghost of Diggs) and I expect that to bear out eventually. However, there's no guarantee that it will happen and no guarantee that it will be imminent. My hunch is that the big weeks will come, but if you got him at his redraft ADP then you may have a paperweight for a month or two.

 

[rockaction]

Wanted to take him in my redraft league. He went about a half round ahead of where I was hoping to get him (late 30s).

For people who engage with FF primarily from a dynasty perspective, there's a danger in being too early on a player and letting dynasty evaluations bleed into DFS and redraft decisions. Even if Henderson ends up being great, that doesn't mean it's going to happen from day one or even year one. Go take a look at the rookie season usage of LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore for an unpleasant reality check.

Personally, I think he's the best skill player on the Pats (excluding the ghost of Diggs) and I expect that to bear out eventually. However, there's no guarantee that it will happen and no guarantee that it will be imminent. My hunch is that the big weeks will come, but if you got him at his redraft ADP then you may have a paperweight for a month or two.

Yep. I've been a lousy redraft player for five years. I also wrote a screed about McDaniels where I sort of predicted exactly this even though I thought it was the most misguided, foolish way to use his personnel. But they won today! So what do I have to say?

It's sad that these guys' careers are so short and the best of them still have to wait regardless of talent just because some guy arbitrarily believes that is the way it is done—and the things they place importance on actually aren't as important in winning games as the dizzying talent Henderson displays.

But that's just me.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Wanted to take him in my redraft league. He went about a half round ahead of where I was hoping to get him (late 30s).

For people who engage with FF primarily from a dynasty perspective, there's a danger in being too early on a player and letting dynasty evaluations bleed into DFS and redraft decisions. Even if Henderson ends up being great, that doesn't mean it's going to happen from day one or even year one. Go take a look at the rookie season usage of LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore for an unpleasant reality check.

Personally, I think he's the best skill player on the Pats (excluding the ghost of Diggs) and I expect that to bear out eventually. However, there's no guarantee that it will happen and no guarantee that it will be imminent. My hunch is that the big weeks will come, but if you got him at his redraft ADP then you may have a paperweight for a month or two.

Yep. I've been a lousy redraft player for five years. I also wrote a screed about McDaniels where I sort of predicted exactly this even though I thought it was the most misguided, foolish way to use his personnel. But they won today! So what do I have to say?

It's sad that these guys' careers are so short and the best of them still have to wait regardless of talent just because some guy arbitrarily believes that is the way it is done—and the things they place importance on actually aren't as important in winning games as the dizzying talent Henderson displays.

But that's just me.

I think what’s missing in both of these posts - is that Rhamondre is a damn good RB.

He was one of the brightest stars at the position just a couple years ago. He’s reunited with his draft day OC, and … well? It’s not crazy to think he’s gonna keep the job that they are clearly giving him.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

We bought the hype and we were wrong. Not the first time and I’m sure it won’t be the last time. Congratulations to all the RS owners.

I dont own any shares of Henderson, and there is no doubt that a lot of "fantasy experts" were hyping him up. My fantasy research this season was watching high stakes drafts on youtube and evaluating high stakes ADPs. Henderson was going as high as the late second/early 3rd in high stakes leagues. However, I found that the drafting patterns for a lot of experts/high stakes leagues are different than a lot of home leagues. A lot of the fantasy experts play in dozens/hundreds of teams where there is no management or trades. A lot of them are best ball format. Also, a lot of the leagues that the fantasy experts play in have progressives--where the top two teams from each little league enters a tournament from like weeks 13-16 to where the highest scoring teams in those weeks win a massive prize. I think this is why a lot of fantasy experts "hype" up guys--as to them--they would rather own players that have massive upside to be big contributors towards the latter half of the season. I think Henderson will be a really solid fantasy asset at some point this season. I think the fantasy hype maybe just took attention away from the fact that Rhamondre was clearly going to play some sort of role in the running game to start the season. The question was how much of a role, and how soon Henderson would cut into that role. I don't think people were wrong for drafting him, and I think that there is plenty of season left for him to return a lot of value to those who drafted him.

You are spot on when you talk about how these guys just draft differently. It doesn't translate to your home league with twelve dudes. Never has. And when they get behind a guy it's never due to a particular situation. They roster the guy over forty or fifty times in a crapton of different leagues.

There are other differences, but I'm a bit busy and can't really go into them, but I wanted to acknowledge this as very true.

Oh for sure. A lot of the fantasy "experts" literally have percentage charts of their ownership rates of certain players. They don't want to be under or overexposed. The average home league player plays in maybe 1-3 leagues---and most of us are not in crazy high dollar progressive tournaments where we need to take chances on players that differentiate our teams from the masses. It'd almost be more helpful if they had separate rankings for just classic 10 or 12 team leagues that are not linked to a tournament format

 

[tommyGunZ]

Thanks to @Anarchy99 I targeted Stevenson late in a couple of drafts.

 

[TripItUp]

@Anarchy99 warned everyone what the usage would be. People still didn’t listen and drafted him rounds too early.

week 2 victory lap !!

 

[ffmail4me]

Drafted him in a ton of dynasty and redraft leagues. I know its only week 2, way too early to completely panic and jump ship, but starting to think he's the biggest miss I've had in quite some time. I was so sure he was going to be great out of the gate.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Drafted him in a ton of dynasty and redraft leagues. I know its only week 2, way too early to completely panic and jump ship, but starting to think he's the biggest miss I've had in quite some time. I was so sure he was going to be great out of the gate.

Rookie RB. Coming into a backfield with a highly underrated starter … should’ve sen this coming.

I do think Henderson is going to end up being great - but Rhamo is still young, and not going away. Treat this backfield like the early Gibbs/Monty years.

 

[Chardo1]

He blew two pass protections, one getting called for holding and still giving up the sack. Not sure if he even saw the field afterward.

 

[Uncle Leo]

He blew two pass protections, one getting called for holding and still giving up the sack. Not sure if he even saw the field afterward.

That’s even more concerning.

 

[SayWhat?]

He blew two pass protections, one getting called for holding and still giving up the sack. Not sure if he even saw the field afterward.

That’s even more concerning.

In a generic sense I would agree with you. But I was more worried the coaches just decided to give Stevenson all the work because they feel he’s better. If Henderson blew a couple plays and they decided to send a message to the rookie, that’s better to me than the former. Especially since, by all accounts, pass pro was supposedly a Henderson strength. Now if Henderson keeps blowing pass pro that’ll be a bad deal, but I’m not too worried about that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not ideal, but good lord it's early. Henderson is RB27 through 2 weeks. Stevenson had a nice long catch but other than that he's averaging 3.8ypc and looks...fine. He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

At this point last year Bucky Irving was a 3rd stringer. Tyrone Tracy as an afterthought. Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle had done diddly and looked like big busts for people projecting they would get enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Chuba Hubbard was dead in the water. Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins were the veteran league winners that everyone should have seen coming.

Would I have preferred he came out getting 50-60% of the workload and looked like a beast doing it? Sure. But it's week 2.

 

[ponchsox]

Not ideal, but good lord it's early. Henderson is RB27 through 2 weeks. Stevenson had a nice long catch but other than that he's averaging 3.8ypc and looks...fine. He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

At this point last year Bucky Irving was a 3rd stringer. Tyrone Tracy as an afterthought. Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle had done diddly and looked like big busts for people projecting they would get enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Chuba Hubbard was dead in the water. Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins were the veteran league winners that everyone should have seen coming.

Would I have preferred he came out getting 50-60% of the workload and looked like a beast doing it? Sure. But it's week 2.

Right. The people that drafted Henderson as an RB2 or higher made a very risky pick that shouldn’t be expected to hit in the first two games. You can’t expect him to earn a majority of touches out of the gate. He’s still an RB3/flex with the chance for more later in the season.

 

[efactor]

Not ideal, but good lord it's early. Henderson is RB27 through 2 weeks. Stevenson had a nice long catch but other than that he's averaging 3.8ypc and looks...fine. He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

At this point last year Bucky Irving was a 3rd stringer. Tyrone Tracy as an afterthought. Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle had done diddly and looked like big busts for people projecting they would get enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Chuba Hubbard was dead in the water. Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins were the veteran league winners that everyone should have seen coming.

Would I have preferred he came out getting 50-60% of the workload and looked like a beast doing it? Sure. But it's week 2.

Right. The people that drafted Henderson as an RB2 or higher made a very risky pick that shouldn’t be expected to hit in the first two games. You can’t expect him to earn a majority of touches out of the gate. He’s still an RB3/flex with the chance for more later in the season.

Agree. I took him at 4.02 in a 14 teamer and acknowledged there was risk but I was willing to take it. Not an optimal start obviously but the talent is there. 2-10 rushing and 2/30 receiving before he got pulled.

Coaches overreact to RB mistakes too much IMO. Hopefully this isn’t the case moving forward.

 

[Chardo1]

Not ideal, but good lord it's early. Henderson is RB27 through 2 weeks. Stevenson had a nice long catch but other than that he's averaging 3.8ypc and looks...fine. He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

At this point last year Bucky Irving was a 3rd stringer. Tyrone Tracy as an afterthought. Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle had done diddly and looked like big busts for people projecting they would get enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Chuba Hubbard was dead in the water. Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins were the veteran league winners that everyone should have seen coming.

Would I have preferred he came out getting 50-60% of the workload and looked like a beast doing it? Sure. But it's week 2.

Right. The people that drafted Henderson as an RB2 or higher made a very risky pick that shouldn’t be expected to hit in the first two games. You can’t expect him to earn a majority of touches out of the gate. He’s still an RB3/flex with the chance for more later in the season.

Agree. I took him at 4.02 in a 14 teamer and acknowledged there was risk but I was willing to take it. Not an optimal start obviously but the talent is there. 2-10 rushing and 2/30 receiving before he got pulled.

Coaches overreact to RB mistakes too much IMO. Hopefully this isn’t the case moving forward.

If Belichick was still there, Treveyon would be benched for a month.

 

[efactor]

Not ideal, but good lord it's early. Henderson is RB27 through 2 weeks. Stevenson had a nice long catch but other than that he's averaging 3.8ypc and looks...fine. He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

At this point last year Bucky Irving was a 3rd stringer. Tyrone Tracy as an afterthought. Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle had done diddly and looked like big busts for people projecting they would get enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Chuba Hubbard was dead in the water. Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins were the veteran league winners that everyone should have seen coming.

Would I have preferred he came out getting 50-60% of the workload and looked like a beast doing it? Sure. But it's week 2.

Right. The people that drafted Henderson as an RB2 or higher made a very risky pick that shouldn’t be expected to hit in the first two games. You can’t expect him to earn a majority of touches out of the gate. He’s still an RB3/flex with the chance for more later in the season.

Agree. I took him at 4.02 in a 14 teamer and acknowledged there was risk but I was willing to take it. Not an optimal start obviously but the talent is there. 2-10 rushing and 2/30 receiving before he got pulled.

Coaches overreact to RB mistakes too much IMO. Hopefully this isn’t the case moving forward.

If Belichick was still there, Treveyon would be benched for a month.

True, which is an overreaction.

Like when you see guys benched when they fumble once. It happens.

 

[Anarchy99]

He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

Just to clarify, Stevenson averaged 4.37 ypc through 2 games last year. But your point still holds. He had 51 touches in the first 2 games for 216 YFS and 2 TD in 2024, and it was all downhill from there. But I don't think it was all a Stevenson problem. It was an OL problem. We can't just look at how players perform in a vacuum. THIS YEAR, the Pats have had the same 5 OL guys play every snap so far on offense this year. They haven't been able to keep the same guys out there the past few years. They have had a revolving door of injuries. Even though the line play hasn't been great yet in2025, if they can keep them all in as a unit, that will have huge benefit to Stevenson or Henderson.

Stephenson hasn't come close to matching that level of production this season. He's had half the touches comparably to 2024 . . . 25 touches, 169 YFS, 0 TD. Last year, he played 75% of the snaps through 2 games. This year, he's had 65%. I think part of that workload reduction is a result of him being dinged up in training camp. They haven't ramped up his workload yet. I expect he will stay in that 15-17 touch orbit, as that's what he's averaged. I still think he's carved out his share of the workload.

It's just how much Henderson can get to supplement Stevenson. Meaning, the back that Henderson is competing for touches right now is Gibson, not Stevenson. If NE can get their defensive issues in check and play with the lead, then Henderson will stand to benefit more than Stevenson. I don't see Stevenson suddenly getting fed the ball 25 times a game very often unless he is having a stellar week. So the additional touches of a functioning offense playing with the lead will go to Henderson. That may sound counterintuitive, but the RB volume will go up and Henderson is the one that will get more carries when the RB workload increases.

Vrabel will be much more attune to playing defense and running the ball . . . if the game script calls for that. They just haven't been able to hold a lead. They have only had 32 RB carries through two weeks. Maye (14 carries) has more rushing attempts than Henderson (8 carries). It's hard to be a top fantasy producer when you are third in line for carries on your own team.

IMO, it's still way too soon to declare Stevenson the "winner" here. Because there are plenty of reasons to be leery of him. In each of his prior years, he's gotten dinged up, gotten less productive, and had his workload reduced as the season wore on. Henderson could still easily see a path to a much bigger workload. I guess it depends when Stevenson got nicked as to what they would do with Henderson's workload. Strange as it may sound, but if Stevenson had to come out of the game in Week 3, I think they would give Gibson a much bigger workload than now and Henderson would get some additional work. I don't think they would overload Henderson just yet. And Stevenson could go back to coughing up the football.

All is not lost for Henderson owners. IMO, people just bought too high. If I were a shark owner that didn't own him, I would wait a couple more weeks of him being so-so and not involved in the offense. And THEN I try to pry him away at a discount. Because he is the type of player who COULD carry a fantasy team down the stretch if things played out right. But to me, that's not a guy you burn a late third or early fourth round pick on in a redraft. He will be tough to start when Stevenson is playing, especially early in the season. And when an owner finally gives in and benches him, that will be the week he has a 75-yard TD run, a 60-yard wheel route for a TD, and a KO return TD . . . sitting on your bench. Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Stephenson isn't that kind of player. It will all depend on whether they want to feed the guy that can score on any play, or if they are happy with a guy that could get them decent yardage, keep moving the sticks, keep drives alive, and won't get Drake Maye in the ICU.

 

[Chardo1]

He was averaging 5.5ypc at this point last season and we saw how that turned out.

Just to clarify, Stevenson averaged 4.37 ypc through 2 games last year. But your point still holds. He had 51 touches in the first 2 games for 216 YFS and 2 TD in 2024, and it was all downhill from there. But I don't think it was all a Stevenson problem. It was an OL problem. We can't just look at how players perform in a vacuum. THIS YEAR, the Pats have had the same 5 OL guys play every snap so far on offense this year. They haven't been able to keep the same guys out there the past few years. They have had a revolving door of injuries. Even though the line play hasn't been great yet in2025, if they can keep them all in as a unit, that will have huge benefit to Stevenson or Henderson.

Stephenson hasn't come close to matching that level of production this season. He's had half the touches comparably to 2024 . . . 25 touches, 169 YFS, 0 TD. Last year, he played 75% of the snaps through 2 games. This year, he's had 65%. I think part of that workload reduction is a result of him being dinged up in training camp. They haven't ramped up his workload yet. I expect he will stay in that 15-17 touch orbit, as that's what he's averaged. I still think he's carved out his share of the workload.

It's just how much Henderson can get to supplement Stevenson. Meaning, the back that Henderson is competing for touches right now is Gibson, not Stevenson. If NE can get their defensive issues in check and play with the lead, then Henderson will stand to benefit more than Stevenson. I don't see Stevenson suddenly getting fed the ball 25 times a game very often unless he is having a stellar week. So the additional touches of a functioning offense playing with the lead will go to Henderson. That may sound counterintuitive, but the RB volume will go up and Henderson is the one that will get more carries when the RB workload increases.

Vrabel will be much more attune to playing defense and running the ball . . . if the game script calls for that. They just haven't been able to hold a lead. They have only had 32 RB carries through two weeks. Maye (14 carries) has more rushing attempts than Henderson (8 carries). It's hard to be a top fantasy producer when you are third in line for carries on your own team.

IMO, it's still way too soon to declare Stevenson the "winner" here. Because there are plenty of reasons to be leery of him. In each of his prior years, he's gotten dinged up, gotten less productive, and had his workload reduced as the season wore on. Henderson could still easily see a path to a much bigger workload. I guess it depends when Stevenson got nicked as to what they would do with Henderson's workload. Strange as it may sound, but if Stevenson had to come out of the game in Week 3, I think they would give Gibson a much bigger workload than now and Henderson would get some additional work. I don't think they would overload Henderson just yet. And Stevenson could go back to coughing up the football.

All is not lost for Henderson owners. IMO, people just bought too high. If I were a shark owner that didn't own him, I would wait a couple more weeks of him being so-so and not involved in the offense. And THEN I try to pry him away at a discount. Because he is the type of player who COULD carry a fantasy team down the stretch if things played out right. But to me, that's not a guy you burn a late third or early fourth round pick on in a redraft. He will be tough to start when Stevenson is playing, especially early in the season. And when an owner finally gives in and benches him, that will be the week he has a 75-yard TD run, a 60-yard wheel route for a TD, and a KO return TD . . . sitting on your bench. Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Stephenson isn't that kind of player. It will all depend on whether they want to feed the guy that can score on any play, or if they are happy with a guy that could get them decent yardage, keep moving the sticks, keep drives alive, and won't get Drake Maye in the ICU.

Yet it was Stevenson who hauled in a deep ball for their biggest play of the season.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yet it was Stevenson who hauled in a deep ball for their biggest play of the season.

IIRC, that was only the second time Stevenson had a gain of 50+ yards in 885 career touches. I don't know what defines "breakaway threat," but one play every 440 touches may not fall in that window. I don't think many people would argue that Henderson has more speed and elusiveness to score from anywhere on the field. And those types of plays may not be totally player dependent. They are scheme, play calling, design, and blocking influenced.