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RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, PIT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
pantherclub
Footballguy
isnt he more of a Mike Wallace style player who just gets behind the defense and uses his speed/athleticism to get open? I dont see him as a precision type wideout. Not sure how much of that matters. Although I could be totally wrong here.
Abraham
Footballguy
Not at all. He rarely got behind the d and when he did he rarely caught the ball. His game was getting the ball on the run and using his speed and moves to get through the d , which is why people are more excited by him then just a burner. He needs a ton of help on his route - a ton - but once he has the ball, look out. Furthermore, his playmaking ability isn't reliant just on speed. He didn't simply outrun people. He has great balance and agility and sees the field well.
pantherclub
Footballguy
He didnt have a problem getting behind NC States Defense in the first game of the season
Xue
Footballguy
How far did he have to run, though?Patterson has great top end, but he doesn't get off the line quickly so that's going to hurt him in the intermediate game.He didnt have a problem getting behind NC States Defense in the first game of the season
Mookie
Footballguy
Patterson is electric with the ball in his hands, but he is not a polished WR. One thing I noticed watching him in drills and highlights is that he does not run through the catch and slows down considerably before the ball arrives. That is going to hurt him at the next level, and I would imagine it's a very tough habit to break.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
One of the bigger boom or bust prospects this year. On the right team he could be dynamic as a rookie and be developed properly as a bona fide outside WR in the long term. On the wrong team he's a colossal bust who never meets expectations, despite eye-popping plays every few weeks during the season.
If Rogers didn't get kicked out of UT, all 3 would've been on the same team
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I still think Rogers is the best of them.
cstu
Footballguy
I think you might as well reach into a hat to pick which one will be best...that said, Rogers is the most complete receiver of the three IMO. If he can keep his head on straight he has a good chance to be the best of them, big if though.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is silly. Williamson couldn't catch. Patterson is a good natural catcher. Not sure I see any correlation here at all.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
The thing that I find interesting is that Rogers is known for his YAC skills. This past season Patterson rightfully was recognized for it, but before him Rogers was also really admired for his YAC ability. And he beat out Patterson in all of the explosiveness/agility drills while being the exact same size, with longer arms and bigger hands. He's also more polished as a route runner and more pro-ready.
Patterson has all of the tools to be a serious weapon, but people talk about him like he's a Julio-level physical freak at the position. He's not, and in fact a better pure WR who was on his own team is more athletic and explosive than he is in all the drills, other than the 40, where Patterson put up a 4.42 to Rogers' 4.52.
Looking at the tape, Patterson is more explosive and slippery in the open field. But Rogers was also known for this and he also translates it better into his route-running and ability to gain separation. Things that an actual outside WR will have to do in the NFL.
Being kind of a character risk rightfully drops Rogers down NFL draft boards, most likely. But so many people touting Patterson over him for dynasty is confusing.
Patterson has all of the tools to be a serious weapon, but people talk about him like he's a Julio-level physical freak at the position. He's not, and in fact a better pure WR who was on his own team is more athletic and explosive than he is in all the drills, other than the 40, where Patterson put up a 4.42 to Rogers' 4.52.
Looking at the tape, Patterson is more explosive and slippery in the open field. But Rogers was also known for this and he also translates it better into his route-running and ability to gain separation. Things that an actual outside WR will have to do in the NFL.
Being kind of a character risk rightfully drops Rogers down NFL draft boards, most likely. But so many people touting Patterson over him for dynasty is confusing.
Along with the fact that Williamson was a straightline burner, whereas Patterson may be the best RAC receiver in this draft outside of Austin.
cstu
Footballguy
I won't say Patterson has bad hands or anything, but he does let a lot of balls get to his body. He also ran primarily short routes which got him him the ball in open space and were easier to catch. He's a very raw route runner and I think it's going to take him awhile to adjust to the NFL. Whoever drafts him with a 1st will likely find a way to get the ball in his hands early on but he's still a project as an NFL #1 WR.'jurb26 said:
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Surprised this didn't cause an uproar. Patterson seems like the type to inspire man-crush level belief in some, thought there was a chance I might ruffle some feathers suggesting Rogers is actually a better prospect.'ConnSKINS26 said:
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Right. And he'll fall down NFL teams' draft boards for that reason.I'm talking pure talent vs. talent though, as prospects. We can't predict whether he'll straighten out.
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cstu
Footballguy
I don't have any statistics to back it up but it looked like 90% of his catches were within 10 yards of the LOS.
Faust
MVP
Video Link:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/0ap2000000156885/Is-Cordarrelle-Patterson-a-can-t-miss
Is Cordarrelle Patterson a can't-miss?
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/0ap2000000156885/Is-Cordarrelle-Patterson-a-can-t-miss
Is Cordarrelle Patterson a can't-miss?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Lots of flags with this class.
Faust
MVP
Some speculation from Brian Billick on Rotoworld:
Former NFL head coach Brian Billick wouldn't be surprised if the Colts "made a splash" and traded up for "a big time play maker."
"Cordarrelle Patterson nor Tavon Austin are in the "can't miss" category like Julio was, but you can't deny their unique playmaking ability," Billick tweeted. We expect Austin to be selected before Patterson, but both can likely be had in the eight to 20 range. Andrew Luck does have young targets in Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, TY Hilton, and Lavon Brazill.
Source: Brian Billick on Twitter
Former NFL head coach Brian Billick wouldn't be surprised if the Colts "made a splash" and traded up for "a big time play maker."
"Cordarrelle Patterson nor Tavon Austin are in the "can't miss" category like Julio was, but you can't deny their unique playmaking ability," Billick tweeted. We expect Austin to be selected before Patterson, but both can likely be had in the eight to 20 range. Andrew Luck does have young targets in Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, TY Hilton, and Lavon Brazill.
Source: Brian Billick on Twitter
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MAC_32
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Not if you wait until day 2 and take what's left. Austin and a medically cleared Allen are the only two players that should be selected Thursday, the rest are Friday or Saturday picks.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Now that the NFL has weighed in, I'm more inclined to think Patterson is a bust waiting to happen. Obviously, I think the fact he's become the consensus #2 WR this year is a mistake as well.
Here's some basics that I start with.
I looked back at 15 years worth of NFL drafts. 1993-2007. At this point we basically know what those players are going to be.
There were 62 WRs drafted in RD1.
37 of them have to be considered complete busts. 59.6%
14 of them had some sort of middling outcome. I.e. started well then got hurt early in their careers (eg Javon Walker) or were guys that had their moments, but nevertheless weren't reliable fantasy players. (Eg Santonio Holmes). 22.5%
11 have been studs. 17.7%
Sobering numbers to look at for sure.
So even if Patterson were an average NFL 1st round prospect, he'd have about a 1 in 6 chance of becoming a stud WR1. Patterson is pretty far removed from being an average 1st round prospect however. The reason he's a 1st rounder is because he's a pretty special athlete in the open field. I don't think anybody would argue that. That's where the positives end for him however.
-He's as raw as it gets as a route runner.
-The consensus among scouts seemed to be that he's not very smart.
-He reportedly bombed during the interview portion at the combine. Hard to say whether that was on the chalkboard or in the attitude dept or both.
When I look at a player with that kind of profile, I think his chances to be a bust are significantly higher than your average 1st rounder. Quite frankly, he's going to have to work very hard to become a great WR. They all do, but he's got further to go than most.
To me, I think you're better off going with the safer bet in Hopkins, although I'd agree that his ceiling is not as high. I also think Justin Hunter is a better option as well. Plenty of scouts calling him a special talent before the ACL. The drops obviously were an issue last year, but I remember both Roddy and Calvin has dropped ball issues early in their careers.
Here's some basics that I start with.
I looked back at 15 years worth of NFL drafts. 1993-2007. At this point we basically know what those players are going to be.
There were 62 WRs drafted in RD1.
37 of them have to be considered complete busts. 59.6%
14 of them had some sort of middling outcome. I.e. started well then got hurt early in their careers (eg Javon Walker) or were guys that had their moments, but nevertheless weren't reliable fantasy players. (Eg Santonio Holmes). 22.5%
11 have been studs. 17.7%
Sobering numbers to look at for sure.
So even if Patterson were an average NFL 1st round prospect, he'd have about a 1 in 6 chance of becoming a stud WR1. Patterson is pretty far removed from being an average 1st round prospect however. The reason he's a 1st rounder is because he's a pretty special athlete in the open field. I don't think anybody would argue that. That's where the positives end for him however.
-He's as raw as it gets as a route runner.
-The consensus among scouts seemed to be that he's not very smart.
-He reportedly bombed during the interview portion at the combine. Hard to say whether that was on the chalkboard or in the attitude dept or both.
When I look at a player with that kind of profile, I think his chances to be a bust are significantly higher than your average 1st rounder. Quite frankly, he's going to have to work very hard to become a great WR. They all do, but he's got further to go than most.
To me, I think you're better off going with the safer bet in Hopkins, although I'd agree that his ceiling is not as high. I also think Justin Hunter is a better option as well. Plenty of scouts calling him a special talent before the ACL. The drops obviously were an issue last year, but I remember both Roddy and Calvin has dropped ball issues early in their careers.
cstu
Footballguy
In Patterson's favor is the Vikings gave up a ton (2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th) to get him. That means they thought he was better than any WR they could get in the 2nd (Dobson) and 3 more players. When a team shows that kind of belief in someone I think it gives him a much lower probability of busting than average.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
The Vikings also decided they'd rather have Sharif Floyd at 23, and Xavier Rhodes at 25. So even the team that liked him best passed on him twice late in the first round.
AJ Green had a poor wonderlic too.
Patterson has produced everywhere he's played football in a big way. When you walk into the SEC and set a record in your 1st year, that has my attention.
If 82.3% of 1st round WRs aren't factors, why should people draft the "safe guy." Which is Hopkins/Hunter in your words. If FF owners played it safe, they would've passed on Randy Moss too.
Justin Hunter over Patterson, why? Hunter isn't the same explosively since 2010, dropped more passes than Patterson, and is 1/10 the player after the catch as Patterson. Hunter entered a team with Britt/Wright(competition now and in the future), Jennings isn't going to be in Minny forever.
Patterson has produced everywhere he's played football in a big way. When you walk into the SEC and set a record in your 1st year, that has my attention.
If 82.3% of 1st round WRs aren't factors, why should people draft the "safe guy." Which is Hopkins/Hunter in your words. If FF owners played it safe, they would've passed on Randy Moss too.
Justin Hunter over Patterson, why? Hunter isn't the same explosively since 2010, dropped more passes than Patterson, and is 1/10 the player after the catch as Patterson. Hunter entered a team with Britt/Wright(competition now and in the future), Jennings isn't going to be in Minny forever.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
patterson's sports science "combine" segment... please don't blow up your draft for that reason alone 
, but suggestive on what kind of athlete he is...
may have been said already, but another patterson fun fact... harvin was a prep track star (not sure about florida) with i think a personal best of 10.4 100 m... he is about 5'9" 190-195 lbs? the WR slotted to replace him (maybe 5" and 20-25 lbs heavier), patterson, has run a 10.3 100 m...
he is raw due to oblique JUCO route, but couple the freakish physical tools, sheer athleticism and natural and instinctive open field RAC skills and you have a tantalizing prospect...
frank coyle invoked dez bryant as a comp (who took a few years to really break out despite entering the league more polished and refined than patterson), and one of only two blue chip WRs (with austin, hopkins as red chip) in the class of '13...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b34PaCvgBFI
, but suggestive on what kind of athlete he is... may have been said already, but another patterson fun fact... harvin was a prep track star (not sure about florida) with i think a personal best of 10.4 100 m... he is about 5'9" 190-195 lbs? the WR slotted to replace him (maybe 5" and 20-25 lbs heavier), patterson, has run a 10.3 100 m...
he is raw due to oblique JUCO route, but couple the freakish physical tools, sheer athleticism and natural and instinctive open field RAC skills and you have a tantalizing prospect...
frank coyle invoked dez bryant as a comp (who took a few years to really break out despite entering the league more polished and refined than patterson), and one of only two blue chip WRs (with austin, hopkins as red chip) in the class of '13...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b34PaCvgBFI
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If the Vikings drafted Patterson to be a traditional X WR - there is major risk, obviously, he doesn’t look close to being ready to offer that.
But if they drafted him to get him the ball in space – like Harvin – is he really any riskier than Hopkins or the average 1st round WR prospect? What he did will transfer. He'll make people miss and be very dangerous with the ball in his hands. That’s why he was drafted and how I think he’ll be used. In which case, I don’t see the major risk, since they won’t be asking him to beat NFL corners with his route running and hands. Take Harvin and put him in a Hakeem Nicks role and he's likely to fail too.
But if they drafted him to get him the ball in space – like Harvin – is he really any riskier than Hopkins or the average 1st round WR prospect? What he did will transfer. He'll make people miss and be very dangerous with the ball in his hands. That’s why he was drafted and how I think he’ll be used. In which case, I don’t see the major risk, since they won’t be asking him to beat NFL corners with his route running and hands. Take Harvin and put him in a Hakeem Nicks role and he's likely to fail too.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Agreed. And if that's all he is, fine.
But if he develops into a more complete receiver, he can be elite.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
If Patterson was as advanced a route runner as AJ Green was coming out, I wouldn't worry at all about his smarts. As it is, he's got to learn a NFL play book, and how to run routes, read defenses etc. Patterson has my attention as well. I have him as the 4th best WR in this class.82.3% is a scary number isn't it. If you don't believe me, look it up yourself. I was actually pretty lenient in my grading of the 62 players. If you take out WRs taken in the top 5 of the NFL draft (where the number is 50%), the rest of the class falls down to a 14% chance of hitting on a stud. I don't presume that Hunter or Hopkins are safe picks. I think they are both "safer" than Patterson is however. Lets say the consensus is upside for Patterson and Hunter is a WR1, while Hopkins upside is a WR2.In my mind I'd say their chances of hitting those ceilings goes something like this
atterson 7%Hunter 14%Hopkins 20%Judging Hunter exclusively on his 2012 game tape is flawed logic. We know players aren't the same in year 1 after an ACL tear. It's not like he was terrible either with 73/1083/9. He isn't in Pattersons class after the catch, but he's not a catch and fall guy either. Julio Jones averages about 7 yards after the catch, and AJ Green averages 4.5. Yet they both are among the best WRs in the game. As for the situation in Tennessee, local press is already thinking this will be Britts last year there. Don't really think having Kendall Wright around is going to hurt Hunter. Your guess is as good as mine in comparing Ponder to Locker...
encaitar
Footballguy
There's a difference between having the potential to be a WR1 and having the potential to be a top 5 WR in the NFL. Hopkins and Hunter have no shot of being "elite", while Patterson does IMO. Give me a choice between having a WR with a 10% chance to be elite and a WR with a 20% chance to be just a WR1 and I'm taking the former first in every draft.
ThePittbully
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Besides the fact that the Vikings will likely not be asking him to line up on the LOS in the 1st place much like they did with Harvin. I think the Patterson pick hurts Jarius Wrights opportunity and Patterson will be eased into the offense gradually. He will be used on kick returns right away so if your league does not award players for special teams plays, well that is a shame, because they are game changing plays and field position is critical for a team with a run 1st strategy.
The Vikings will find ways to get Patterson the ball. I think he will be excellent on misdirection running plays and that will help Peterson as well with the fake end around and so on. Patterson needs to not go backwards as often as I have seen him do on some of his runs but he has great vision and sets up blocks well. The Vikings will get him the ball out in the flat with some blockers for him to work with and a lot of other good things can be built around this type of threat. The high percentage passing plays become an extension of the run. Harvin, Peterson and Ponder does create an option like situation for a run defense that bootlegs and other things compliment this as well.
I think Greg Jennings is going to be great for Patterson to learn from, which should help his long term development, which as others have said could be a pretty big upside if Patterson does develop his route running so that he becomes a complete receiver. The downside if he does not is still decent because of his big play ability still likely making him a spot starter or WR3. The upside with him may make him retain 1st round value even if he has not done much if you do want to pull the rip cord on him if he does not fast start.
There is some risk he is a bust I suppose. I do not see some of the maneuvers he got away with working as well in the Nfl. I think he has the talent, it is just a question of desire and work ethic as far as how good he can be.
It's flawed logic judging Hunter on his 2012 tape, but it's not flawed logic to dream about his 16 reception freshman season?If Patterson was as advanced a route runner as AJ Green was coming out, I wouldn't worry at all about his smarts. As it is, he's got to learn a NFL play book, and how to run routes, read defenses etc.Patterson has my attention as well. I have him as the 4th best WR in this class.82.3% is a scary number isn't it. If you don't believe me, look it up yourself. I was actually pretty lenient in my grading of the 62 players. If you take out WRs taken in the top 5 of the NFL draft (where the number is 50%), the rest of the class falls down to a 14% chance of hitting on a stud.I don't presume that Hunter or Hopkins are safe picks. I think they are both "safer" than Patterson is however.Lets say the consensus is upside for Patterson and Hunter is a WR1, while Hopkins upside is a WR2.In my mind I'd say their chances of hitting those ceilings goes something like this
Never said your numbers or percentages were off, would be curious to see the names though since you did the study. However, if i'm taking a gamble(they're all gambles) it would be on Patterson. The term "safe" is overrated(even though i've used it before), we have no idea what's going to happen when with these kids in the future: money, football is now a job, jump up in competition, new team, etc. David Terrell was the safest pick in the draft, then he flopped. Brian Robiskie was supposed to be the most NFL ready, etc.
Lets look at the "gamble" associated with each player.
DeAndre Hopkins
-Least athletic player of the three and hope that his lack of great athleticism isn't a hindrance jumping to the NFL
-Best route runner of the 3, this is what makes him good
-2nd in YAC
-Shortest in height
-Best Hands
-Great production last year
-Going to a team with an established #1 WR and they don't throw the ball a ton. They do however, have the best QB of the 3.
To be a great FF contributor: Hopkins needs to continue his great route running, become Houston's future #1 WR(command targets) and hope that his lack of great athleticism doesn't get catch up with him.
Justin Hunter
-If he can return to 2010 form(which is a gamble), he has the best leaping ability of the group. I'd put him on par with Patterson in pure speed. Hunter has never possessed good short area quickness, stop start ability, or change of direction.
-Average route runner
-Worst YAC. If Hunter doesn't have a clear lane to run straight, he isn't going to make much happen. His agility isn't great.
-Tallest of the bunch, but also the skinniest
-Worst Hands
-Flawed 2012 production IMO. He had 4 100 yard games in 2012 vs Troy, Georgia State, Akron, and Missouri(all huge cupcakes). Touchdowns in the other 8 games=1. Yardage totals= 90, 76, 73, 70, 65, 46, 41, 39.
-Going to a team with two former 1st round picks at his position and Jake Locker(hasn't shown much).
For Hunter to be a great FF contributor: Hunter has to put on weight, work on his hands, get completely healthy, improve short area quickness, improve YAC ability, and overcome 2 other young former 1st round picks at his position.
Cordarrelle Patterson
-Most athletic player
-Worst route runner
-Best YAC
-2nd tallest, but heaviest
-2nd best hands, body catches too much but didn't drop as many as Hunter
-Great production for being at Tennessee 1 year
-Goes to an average/below average landing spot. Jennings/Rudolph should see most targets in 2013, Ponder isn't anything special.
For Patterson to be a great FF contributor: He needs to work on his craft more: route running, use hands to catch more, learn little ins/outs of the game. Patterson should get touches right away in return game, reverses, screens, but the downfield stuff he may have to fight it out with Jennings/Rudolph for the next year or two before he could be the #1.
If i'm gambling on a prospect, give me the guy that doesn't have to learn to be athletic or get healthy or bigger or taller. While some of those things can happen, they're less likely than route running.
ETA:
From all of the plays I analysed for that article, he had almost a perfect game. I only say 1 play where Patterson made a move in a one on one situation with a DB in space and he didn't make him miss. That's downright amazing! I'm sure he would continue at that rate, but if he produces half of that...watch out NFL.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I agree with what you're saying here Coop. They are going to have to be very creative in how they use him. I didn't expect most to agree with me on this, so it's no surprise I'm getting some push back.Consider this. Patterson played 8 games vs the SEC in his career. He went 26/375/3 in the receiving dept in those games. Most of his damage came in the return game or running the ball. Basically, he is a complete project at WR. Combine that with scouts calling his interviews "very unimpressive," and the Rams opting to trade up for a player with similar talents, but that is only 5'8" and 174lbs. They called him "very raw" and said they had "some character concerns."
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Tavon is more plug and play, which is why the Rams valued him so much more than Patterson. I could be wrong on that, but it's my guess. He's got some Welker in him and Patterson doesn't. Not yet, anyway.
Patterson is risky - as you pointed out, WRs drafted outside of the top 5 picks are. I just don't know that he's any riskier than the average WR drafted in that range.
There is concern in that there is only one Percy Harvin, so there are very limited examples to point to of teams using such a player well enough to dictate fantasy relevance. I can certainly understand the concern or hesitation there. But, when I think of Patterson in that role, I think he’s very likely to translate. Will he be able to do enough else to be a WR2 or, potentially, WR1? I don’t know that. But I don’t know that about most WRs drafted outside of the top 5-6 picks.
We’ll see – he’ll be an interesting guy to follow, no doubt.
cstu
Footballguy
People have forgotten that Harvin had similar concerns coming out. His junior year before he was drafted he had 27 catches in 11 games when you exclude his 13 catch outburst against Mississippi.
Draft the talent and let the team that spent a lot of picks on him try to figure out how to use him.
Draft the talent and let the team that spent a lot of picks on him try to figure out how to use him.
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In the same 8 games this past year in the SEC, Justin Hunter went 39/568/2. Considering Hunter was in the Tennessee program for his whole career, had a rapport with Tyler Bray, knew the offensive system, etc. It's not that much more than Patterson who was only at Tennessee last year.
Patterson's WR totals in 3 years in college= 159 receptions 2610 yards 29 TD. It's not like he's never played the position or didn't produce.
Shutout
Footballguy
This post is really interesting to me because I want to buy into it completely but yet I know that in the NFL, even in an era of morality, that top talent is top talent and gets a pass. If the NFL teams truly thought Rogers and Patterson were that close in talent and based on where Patterson was drafted, I have to think Rogers would have been at least a late 5th, 6th, or 7th pick.
