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RB Zack Moss, CIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
So anyway, I don't see why he couldn't do similar to what Joe Mixon did last year. Mixon was RB6 with 267 points in PPR.
My guess is Top 15 finish which last year would have been approximately 214 total points for an average of 12.5 points per game.
They let Mixon pound the ball 257 times last season at 4.0 YPC. No reason Moss shouldn't be able to do that if the coaches decide that's what they want to do, but they want to involve Chase Brown so it's probably safe to shave 60 to 100 points off the top of that to create a nice floor at around 167 points or approximately RB32.
Not sure how all that translates to his ADP, but he's a good low end RB2 in my book.
My guess is Top 15 finish which last year would have been approximately 214 total points for an average of 12.5 points per game.
They let Mixon pound the ball 257 times last season at 4.0 YPC. No reason Moss shouldn't be able to do that if the coaches decide that's what they want to do, but they want to involve Chase Brown so it's probably safe to shave 60 to 100 points off the top of that to create a nice floor at around 167 points or approximately RB32.
Not sure how all that translates to his ADP, but he's a good low end RB2 in my book.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I will always have a soft spot in my heart for Moss. I think most believe Brown takes this job. I'm undecided.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it’s safer to say he takes *enough of* his job to make this a RBBC, capping either’s ceiling.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
People need to compare backs on the same team, not backs on different teams . . .
BUF 2020: Moss 4.3 ypc / Other RBs 4.6 ypc | Moss 6.8 ypr / Other RBs 7.8 ypr
BUF 2021: Moss 3.6 ypc / Other RBs 4.6 ypc | Moss 8.6 ypr / Other RBs 6.4 ypr
BUF 2022: Moss 5.4 ypc / Other RBs 3.9 ypc | Moss 5.2 ypr / Other RBs 9.0 ypr
IND 2022: Moss 4.8 ypc / Other RBs 4.1 ypc | Moss 3.0 ypr / Other RBs 6.2 ypr
IND 2023: Moss 4.3 ypc / Other RBs 4.3 ypc | Moss 7.1 ypr / Other RBs 6.6 ypr
CIN 2023: Brown 4.1 ypc / Other RBs 4.1 ypc | Brown 11.1 ypr / Other RBs 6.4 ypr
Even doing that could be misleading. For example, some backs get used as short yardage backs and others get more work as 3rd down / receiving backs (which could slant the numbers one way or another). Also, obviously each RB on these teams had a different workload, which could also skew the data. But IMO, this still makes more sense than coming guys on different teams.
BUF 2020: Moss 4.3 ypc / Other RBs 4.6 ypc | Moss 6.8 ypr / Other RBs 7.8 ypr
BUF 2021: Moss 3.6 ypc / Other RBs 4.6 ypc | Moss 8.6 ypr / Other RBs 6.4 ypr
BUF 2022: Moss 5.4 ypc / Other RBs 3.9 ypc | Moss 5.2 ypr / Other RBs 9.0 ypr
IND 2022: Moss 4.8 ypc / Other RBs 4.1 ypc | Moss 3.0 ypr / Other RBs 6.2 ypr
IND 2023: Moss 4.3 ypc / Other RBs 4.3 ypc | Moss 7.1 ypr / Other RBs 6.6 ypr
CIN 2023: Brown 4.1 ypc / Other RBs 4.1 ypc | Brown 11.1 ypr / Other RBs 6.4 ypr
Even doing that could be misleading. For example, some backs get used as short yardage backs and others get more work as 3rd down / receiving backs (which could slant the numbers one way or another). Also, obviously each RB on these teams had a different workload, which could also skew the data. But IMO, this still makes more sense than coming guys on different teams.
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
Bengals gave 318 carries to RB last year.
50/50 is 159 carries each.
60/40 is a 190 / 128 split.
70/30 is a 223 / 95 split.
Somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 makes sense to me. Moss getting 12-14 and Brown getting 6-8 on a weekly basis seems about right to me with potential for either guy to get the hot hand.
ETA: 10 of the top 25 RB last year had 210 or less carries last year, so a 60/40 split puts him right where he needs to be.
Anything more than that is gravy.
Most Ppr Points For Rb 2023 | StatMuse
Christian McCaffrey had the most PPR fantasy points by a running back in 2023, with 391.3 points.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Moss played 2nd fiddle to Singletary for several years and it’s not as if he is some stud. I believe the cream will rise to the top at some point in 2024 and that will be Brown. I also believe Brown’s chops as a receiver will speed up the process. I could be wrong, but I don’t think I am.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Damn. Didn't realize they ran the ball so little. Makes me less interested in both. Ha ha
Bengals gave 318 carries to RB last year.
50/50 is 159 carries each.
60/40 is a 190 / 128 split.
70/30 is a 223 / 95 split.
Somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 makes sense to me. Moss getting 12-14 and Brown getting 6-8 on a weekly basis seems about right to me with potential for either guy to get the hot hand.
ETA: 8 of the top 25 RB last year had 205 or less carries last year, so a 60/40 split puts him right where he needs to be.
Anything more than that is gravy.
Most Ppr Points For Rb 2023 | StatMuse
Christian McCaffrey had the most PPR fantasy points by a running back in 2023, with 391.3 points.www.statmuse.com
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I was just posting how these two played relative to their RB teammates. It was not an endorsement for Moss or Brown.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I know that.
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
Damn. Didn't realize they ran the ball so little. Makes me less interested in both. Ha ha
Bengals gave 318 carries to RB last year.
50/50 is 159 carries each.
60/40 is a 190 / 128 split.
70/30 is a 223 / 95 split.
Somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 makes sense to me. Moss getting 12-14 and Brown getting 6-8 on a weekly basis seems about right to me with potential for either guy to get the hot hand.
ETA: 8 of the top 25 RB last year had 205 or less carries last year, so a 60/40 split puts him right where he needs to be.
Anything more than that is gravy.
Most Ppr Points For Rb 2023 | StatMuse
Christian McCaffrey had the most PPR fantasy points by a running back in 2023, with 391.3 points.
It is a pretty low number which is kind of funny considering that Browning was the one slinging the ball for the majority of the year.
You could argue with Burrow being back, they could have more leads resulting in more rushing attempts but there's no way for me to say anything like that with confidence. I mean, I could look at the stats from Burrow's healthy years, but it's getting close to bedtime and I'm about all numbered out as this point lol.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
If Zack Moss were to miss any significant time, Chase Brown would instantly become a Top 10 RB by default.
There's not much behind these two guys, yeah?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it's fairly safe to assume the Bengals will be a more productive offense with Burrow behind center.
That could be interpreted any number of ways though.
- WRs could score more TDs
- Could play with more leads
- More RB targets from the QB
- Better sustained drives = more carries/touches out of the backfield whether rushing or receiving
- Greater efficiency/more chunk plays = fewer carries/touches out of the backfield whether rushing or receiving.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not since career backup Evans is now out for the year with a torn patella, no.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
FWIW I look at the Bengals backfield as a cheaper version of the Titans backfield, with likely similar production.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Here's another way to look at Moss, who was drafted in 2020
1.32 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 530 touches, 2610 yards, 19 TD's
2.35 - D'Andre Swift - 788 touches, 4141 yards, 31 TD's
2.41 - Jonathan Taylor - 1048 touches, 5537 touches, 44 TD's
2.52 - Cam Akers - 436 touches, 1901 yards, 12 TD's
2.55 - JK Dobbins - 261 touches, 1524 yards, 13 TD's
2.62 - AJ Dillon - 683 touches, 3191 yards, 18 TD's
3.66 - Antonio Gibson - 814 touches, 3926 yards, 29 TD's
3.76 - Ke'Shawn Vaughn - 117 touches, 465 yards, 3 TD's
3.80 - Lynn Bowden - 53 touches, 358 yards, 0 TD's
3.86 - Zack Moss - 559 touches, 2599 yards, 18 TD's
He's holding his own against the 9 RB's drafted ahead of him.
1.32 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 530 touches, 2610 yards, 19 TD's
2.35 - D'Andre Swift - 788 touches, 4141 yards, 31 TD's
2.41 - Jonathan Taylor - 1048 touches, 5537 touches, 44 TD's
2.52 - Cam Akers - 436 touches, 1901 yards, 12 TD's
2.55 - JK Dobbins - 261 touches, 1524 yards, 13 TD's
2.62 - AJ Dillon - 683 touches, 3191 yards, 18 TD's
3.66 - Antonio Gibson - 814 touches, 3926 yards, 29 TD's
3.76 - Ke'Shawn Vaughn - 117 touches, 465 yards, 3 TD's
3.80 - Lynn Bowden - 53 touches, 358 yards, 0 TD's
3.86 - Zack Moss - 559 touches, 2599 yards, 18 TD's
He's holding his own against the 9 RB's drafted ahead of him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
All in all, a pretty crappy draft, eh?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JT & Swift had their moments. JT is a 1st round pick again this year.
Not sure how that’ll work out for everyone involved, but it is what it is.
jm192
Footballguy
I've been team Moss all off-season.
They're a team with super bowl aspirations. They had Brown on the roster for cheap. They brought in Moss for 4 million per year, which isn't breaking the bank, but it doesn't scream "Brown is the guy."
I've been burnt so many times in the past falling in love with the young flashy upside guy who loses out to the veteran who is just more solid in important aspects of the position. For fantasy, we love home run hitters. For real life NFL Football, they value chain movers that are just solid in the role. And I think that's what Moss is. Maybe Brown has that in him. But I think they're more confident in Moss for that right now. Brown I think is your big play guy. He'll get touches, and he'll probably break some big ones.
I don't think this is a nail in the coffin for Brown. But I do think Moss is going to keep value all season.
They're a team with super bowl aspirations. They had Brown on the roster for cheap. They brought in Moss for 4 million per year, which isn't breaking the bank, but it doesn't scream "Brown is the guy."
I've been burnt so many times in the past falling in love with the young flashy upside guy who loses out to the veteran who is just more solid in important aspects of the position. For fantasy, we love home run hitters. For real life NFL Football, they value chain movers that are just solid in the role. And I think that's what Moss is. Maybe Brown has that in him. But I think they're more confident in Moss for that right now. Brown I think is your big play guy. He'll get touches, and he'll probably break some big ones.
I don't think this is a nail in the coffin for Brown. But I do think Moss is going to keep value all season.
Brown going 3 rounds before Moss was one of the dumbest rises of the summer.
I actually came to a 180 difference in opinion following narrative street.
They had Brown on the team all last year, liked what they say enough to replace Mixon with a cheap replacement who is getting paid similar to Antonio Gibson.
cheese
Footballguy
There are times when a team just won’t tell you the truth and other times when they just don’t know. I honestly think we don’t know who the Bengals primary RB will he because they have to see them out there and decide. I like both guys, but I expect someone will win the job with their play and someone will take a back seat.
jm192
Footballguy
Sure.
But I've also been burnt ignoring the warning signs. It's a game of making predictions and educated guesses based off of the information available. I think the Bengals have seen them in practice and scrimmages.
Moss on top of the depth chart and Brown returning kicks seems like a strong wind in the direction of Moss.
cheese
Footballguy
Low play volume, only 8 drives. In case it helps....
Drive 1- ZMoss 3 and out
Drive 2- ZMoss 3 and out
Drive 3- Chase Brown 3 and out
Drive 4- Chase Brown gets the first snap and they give him the ball. Long drive both guys bounce back and forth pretty randomly based on down and distance
Halftime
Drive 5- ZMoss 1st half of drive, Chase Brown 2nd half
Drive 6- Long TD drive, Moss then Brown then Moss again. Moss TD
Drive 7- Moss Pass protecting, Bengals hurry up down 2 scores
Drive 8- 2 check downs to moss
Drive 1- ZMoss 3 and out
Drive 2- ZMoss 3 and out
Drive 3- Chase Brown 3 and out
Drive 4- Chase Brown gets the first snap and they give him the ball. Long drive both guys bounce back and forth pretty randomly based on down and distance
Halftime
Drive 5- ZMoss 1st half of drive, Chase Brown 2nd half
Drive 6- Long TD drive, Moss then Brown then Moss again. Moss TD
Drive 7- Moss Pass protecting, Bengals hurry up down 2 scores
Drive 8- 2 check downs to moss
Proteus
Footballguy
This is hugely helpful, and it reminds me of when Sigmund Bloom said it was actually enjoyable watching this guy pass block in college. Those skills have not eroded as far as I know, and this usage supports the coaching staff's respect for that part of his game. And let's face it, this is critical to keeping Burrow on the field. I know nothing about Brown's ability to pass block but I think this could be the inflection point for what we saw, and I just might make a modest buy based on this intel.
efactor
Footballguy
Moss getting the lions share in that shiot show isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
If Moss has the goal line and 2 minute drill those are certainly valuable roles…if the offense averages more than 4 yards per play.
Maybe it was averaging 4 yds per play because it was Moss in those roles?
Proteus
Footballguy
No, it's not. But if you're in a deep league and went zero RB, your current RBs are likely zeroes.
Been hanging on to him as it seems C. Brown has overtaken him. Figured high powered offense, grab a piece of it, etc.
Now he's suddenly doubtful opening the door wide open for Brown.
Making matters worse...the schedule: @BALT, @LAC, BYE, PIT. I honestly don't see that he (and maybe even C. Brown) are startable for the next four weeks.
Is Moss dropable at this point in PPR?
Now he's suddenly doubtful opening the door wide open for Brown.
Making matters worse...the schedule: @BALT, @LAC, BYE, PIT. I honestly don't see that he (and maybe even C. Brown) are startable for the next four weeks.
Is Moss dropable at this point in PPR?
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