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RB Zack Moss, CIN (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Mr. Landry
Footballguy
Any thoughts on this guy this week? Most sites I've looked at (including this one) have him as a top 10 back. He's, more or less, stunk it up since taking over for Taylor. He hasn't topped 10 fantasy points in the last five weeks, yet he's ranked ahead of Gibbs, Mostert and Achane. What am I missing?
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Recency bias and wish casting. Colts situation blah blah awesome points. Those blowup games were long ago. But I do expect some positive variance this week- he’s had some ****ty performances but I dont think he’s this bad but I also don’t think he’s a as good as weeks 2-4
rockaction
Footballguy
It's all projected volume.
They play Pittsburgh, right? Not a terrible match-up like in years past, but not a run funnel or anything.
I can see him ahead of Achane. Rankers adjust their rankings given availability status. Mostert was questionable as of yesterday. Achane hadn't practiced and was questionable. But if they both suit up, they eat into each other's touches. As soon as Achane is ruled out, Mostert probably shoots up in the rankings a bit.
And Gibbs should be ranked ahead of him but for Montgomery. They're committee backs no matter how darn good they are or what kind of big games they have. Rankers love assured volume.
I'd rank Gibbs higher. Good match-up and just oodles of talent. Moss is good but he's no Gibbs. Better between the tackles, but Gibbs has an extra gear and is super quick.
Anyway, I ramble. Rankers are ranking on volume.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
It’s incredibly hard to predict outcomes based on small sample sizes. Projections seem to me to be about estimating the number of touches and extrapolating out yards and TDs. If a team gets up or down quickly by a few scores, well then those estimates suffer up or down. Plus reversion to the mean.
togo
Footballguy
Same exact thought!
Thought the same with Ekeler. He was Ranked very high this week on several sites (not too high at 18 on this one) but I said what am I missing. He has had an awful year, said they were platooning 3 backs more now, and started a backup QB. All bad signs. Didn't start him thankfully.
But I do have Moss too, who hasn't done much in his return to the starting lineup but has been ranked very high each week.
What do we realistically expect from him this week?
modogg
Footballguy
if you look at Pittsburgh's last 2 games, they got rolled over by Fatty Zeke and James Conner the week before. Even though Moss isn't like he was to start the year, I still think he has more talent then those 2 at this point
Insein
Footballguy
He's going to get the carries. That's really all you can ask for at this time of year. You hope and pray they do something with it but mainly you want your guys to get a chance to score. Moss has had 22 and 21 touches the last 2 weeks. Hasn't translated and some of that is Tenn and Cincy defense is not bad at stopping the run. Pitt is slightly worse per game according to the stats against Fantasy RBs and this might be a high scoring one.
You just have to plug him in there knowing he's going to get every chance. Just have to hope he delivers.
modogg
Footballguy
I think he got a TD called back 2 weeks in a row to do to holding on both I believe
He’s also at home after 2 road matchups. I’m surprised this game is a basically a pick ‘em given the way Pitt is playing. He’s an unquestioned 3 down back playing at home in a game I think the Colts control due to the awfulness of Trubisky. I think he’s had a ton of carries inside the 10 the past 2 games as well but somehow none right at the goal line. He’ll cash some of those in eventually. 23/104/1 4/26 is my call. Giddy up.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
This is correct from my perspective. You want guys that you can expect to get a lot of touches. That’s about all you can do. Maybe they get 20 touches and 50 yards or maybe they get 18 touches 120 yards and two TDs. Who knows what will happen in the game? You just want players that will get touches and then it’s up to luck. This is why players like Pollard are attractive even when they have a run of mediocre games as they are highly likely to get a lot of touches in the next game. Moss is highly likely to get a lot of touches. There’s really no decision to make with guys like Moss or Pollard unless you have that many better options.
satch
Footballguy
That’s a logical and appropriate perspective. However, things get tricky when one has more explosive alternatives such as Achane, Gibbs, etc. Given what we’ve seen, would you start Moss knowing he’s going to get 20 touches over Achane or Gibbs, knowing they’ll get 12?
Insein
Footballguy
If Achane was healthy, no doubt I'd start him for the upside. But it's iffy if he plays. Gibbs has had moments lately but still gets out carried by Montgomery. I'd probably go Moss if I felt my team was solid everywhere else. If I felt I was lacking somewhere, I'd go Achane or Gibbs to hope they can make up for it with an explosion.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
My opponent has Moss and Minshew, but I will be pulling for them because it's my team. At least I have Pittman. I can see Moss getting a couple short TDs and Minshew having respectable scoring. Like I said, winning the game is more important to me than their fantasy scoring.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Good question.
So I looked at LaDainian Tomlinson’s career and he had about 2818 points over 170 regular season games on 3800 touches. Over his career, he’s getting about 16.5 points per game on an average of 22 touches so each of his touches is worth about 0.75 points on average. That’s rarified air and he was an auto-start for about nine years until the very end of his career. I just cite LT to understand the value of a touch for a blue chip player over a long stretch. If Moss can be expected to get 20 touches this week and we make some kind of assumption as to what the value of his touch is worth, then we can make a predictions. Let’s say it’s 0.65 points per touch for an estimate of 13 PPG. How many touches can we expect from Achane? We can only guess but let’s go with 12 touches. What is the value of touch for Achane? Historically it’s 1.54 points per touch. Personally I don’t think that’s a sustainable number based on what an elite player is likely to average longer term and I’d moderate it a lot due to the small sample size of 81 touches in his career. If we presume it’s still hefty 1.0 point per touch, he’s 12 points per game.
My point is that the decision is really just a function of making educated guesses and doing the math. And of course estimating accurately over time is really challenging.
In the above example, I’d prefer a player likely to get 20 touches at 0.65 points per touch over 12 touches and 1.0 points per touch even if the projections are really close like 13 vs. 12 points per game. Honestly, I probably go with Moss even if Achane was a slight favorite in PPG due to standard deviation which is another discussion beyond my interest in calculating at the moment.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
A bit early to tell. We should know by the 2nd half.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I was going against Chase and I had Jefferson and Hock. I was on pins and needles for a Bengal win. I just hope Chase is okay. My opponent has Moss, Pittman, Matt Gay, and the Steeler's defense so this is a big game for us. He is a HUGE Colts fan by the way.
Insein
Footballguy
Officially out.
Insein
Footballguy
If we extrapolate what Indy backs did, Moss would have had around 130+ yards rushing. He already has the TD. Maybe he gets another. This just sucks.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
X-rays negative but with JT projected to be back Week 16 his fantasy relevance is kind of over for 2023.
Great season for Moss, far exceeded expectations.
Great season for Moss, far exceeded expectations.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Here's hoping Taylor is ready for 20 touches next week.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Strange committee.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Moss as the alpha on this team with the goalline work and possibly sans Tee Higgins is still a good midround target and a solid Zero RB guy.
SuperFantasyFootballGuy
Footballguy
I have this guy stashed in Dynasty. I tried hard to trade him all season but instead he filled in as my RB3/RB4. Now, he's probably going to be the starting RB in Cincinatti and gets to play with Joe Burrow. Something tells me people will suddenly be interested and now I don't want to sell.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think Chase Brown will have a sizable role. “Starter” is a big assumption.I have this guy stashed in Dynasty. I tried hard to trade him all season but instead he filled in as my RB3/RB4. Now, he's probably going to be the starting RB in Cincinatti and gets to play with Joe Burrow. Something tells me people will suddenly be interested and now I don't want to sell.
If you get a good offer, sell.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
Dropping Mixon for Moss is a strange move..
SuperFantasyFootballGuy
Footballguy
I think Chase Brown will have a sizable role. “Starter” is a big assumption.I have this guy stashed in Dynasty. I tried hard to trade him all season but instead he filled in as my RB3/RB4. Now, he's probably going to be the starting RB in Cincinatti and gets to play with Joe Burrow. Something tells me people will suddenly be interested and now I don't want to sell.
If you get a good offer, sell.
I can see that. I think I read that Chase Brown had like the fastest record MPH or something like that, so he's got the juice. Normally you can point at the dollars spent to pinpoint who will see the most carries, Miles Sanders for instance last year, even though he totally goofed it up, was given the first crack at it.
But absolutely, I value him as a RB3 fringe RB2. If I got a late first, early 2nd then I'll play ball, but otherwise being the goalline back in that offense is a great role.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Right?!
SuperFantasyFootballGuy
Footballguy
Surprisingly enough, Mixon averaged 4.0 YPC last year and Moss averaged 4.3 YPC. Mixon is a year and a half older, but it's probably closer to a lateral move than anything. Mixon has 1,571 carries at the NFL level and Moss only has 484 carries in his career. Mixon has significantly more wear and tear with 3x the carries.
Cheaper, younger RB who had a higher YPC, I can see why they did it, but you're really banking on last year not being a fluke for Moss, but it wouldn't be hard to replace Mixon's 4.0 YPC.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
This is a potentially great scheme fit though
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
And to add to it, regarding pass blocking:
I was impressed with Moss last year for the first time and thoroughly impressed.
I'm not even sure going with Taylor was the right move.
Yes Moss did worse as a backup and fill in after Taylor signed, but that's a different role and he was on a roll and they just pulled the rug out from under him.
I thought his $ was pretty low.
Right now, he's going to be a lower round RB target for me
I'm not even sure going with Taylor was the right move.
Yes Moss did worse as a backup and fill in after Taylor signed, but that's a different role and he was on a roll and they just pulled the rug out from under him.
I thought his $ was pretty low.
Right now, he's going to be a lower round RB target for me
