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RB's likely to lose their spot atop the depth chart (2 Viewers)

There is a very strong correlation between draft pick and success in the NFL. However, when a lower pick establishes themselves like Brock Purdy did a few years ago, there is no need to concern oneself with the pick any more. Pick data is mostly useful in the first 2-3 years. Far less relevant afterwards.
 
@TheWinz

My question is this...Of the RBs likely to lose their jobs or better yet, of the RBs likely to elevate and take over at some point to RB1, which ones are likely to produce real numbers?
I'm not sure I would have those answers readily available but curious what others think
 
Blue is the single biggest overall investment of capital
Your point is clear and accurate. Your language, IMO, overstates the fact. It comes off as sales/marketing speech trying to hype up something that is not very exciting on it's face. Technically it's the "single biggest...etc" but I could also say that Javonte Williams is the single highest drafted RB the Cowboys have had on their roster since Ezekiel Elliot in 2016. But I doubt people would get too excited over that.

Blue was the 149th pick in the draft and the 14th RB drafted. That isn't terribly exciting and I don't give him an appreciably greater chance of being the #1 RB in Dallas than any of the other RBs on their roster.

The Cowboys RB situation reeks of RBBC. For redraft leagues Javonte is still the guy to back and for dynasty... I guess Blue should be the pick but I would expect the Cowboys to keep backfilling the position in future drafts and FA classes.
Dude you can think whatever you want to think, I'm just stating a fact. Where Javonte was drafted is no longer relevant.
I didn't mean to offend. The language just seems a bit overstated.
The language is what it is especially in the context of being dismissive of Blue just because he's "only" a 5th round pick.

And yes I did take offense that you want to take a simple statement of fact I made and start calling me PT Barnum but thank you for the comment regarding not meaning to offend.
Again, I apologize.

I did not say "only" and I did not compare you to "PT Barnum", I merely found the language disproportionate to the reality of Blue's draft status.
 
There is a very strong correlation between draft pick and success in the NFL. However, when a lower pick establishes themselves like Brock Purdy did a few years ago, there is no need to concern oneself with the pick any more. Pick data is mostly useful in the first 2-3 years. Far less relevant afterwards.
I know.
I could also say that Javonte Williams is the single highest drafted RB the Cowboys have had on their roster since Ezekiel Elliot in 2016. But I doubt people would get too excited over that.
 
Benson, Judkins, Estime, Bigsby, Hampton, Wright, Mason, Henderson, Miller, Skattebo, Johnson, Guerendo. Besides the obvious ones (rookies in bold), I think the rest of those guys have sneaky value for 2022. Very obvious opportunity for all those guys and maybe a great year to wait on RB as there are some interesting RBBC brewing without obvious outcomes.
 
@TheWinz

My question is this...Of the RBs likely to lose their jobs or better yet, of the RBs likely to elevate and take over at some point to RB1, which ones are likely to produce real numbers?
I'm not sure I would have those answers readily available but curious what others think
I don't really know how to answer this, but I think I have a way that will spark some discussion:

RB's who will see 300+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 7, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Saquon Barkley
- Derrick Henry
- Josh Jacobs
- Ashton Jeanty
- Bijan Robinson
- Jonathan Taylor
- Kyren Williams

RB's who will see 250+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 9, so that's where I will draw the line)
- De'Von Achane
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Bucky Irving
- Aaron Jones
- Alvin Kamara
- Christian McCaffrey
- Joe Mixon
- Tony Pollard
- D'Andre Swift

RB's who will see 200+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 13, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Chase Brown
- James Conner
- James Cook
- Breece Hall
- Omarion Hampton
- Najee Harris
- Chuba Hubbard
- Quinshon Judkins
- David Montgomery
- Brian Robinson
- Tyrone Tracy
- Kenneth Walker
- Jaylen Warren

As you can see, I listed them alphabetically. Cases can easily be made to swap some of these guys up or down a group. A few that just missed the cut were:
- Rhamondre Stevenson and Treyveon Henderson - I think they will share pretty evenly
- Travis Etienne - I was sure he was much better than Bigsby, but he didn't show it last year.
 
@TheWinz

My question is this...Of the RBs likely to lose their jobs or better yet, of the RBs likely to elevate and take over at some point to RB1, which ones are likely to produce real numbers?
I'm not sure I would have those answers readily available but curious what others think
I don't really know how to answer this, but I think I have a way that will spark some discussion:

RB's who will see 300+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 7, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Saquon Barkley
- Derrick Henry
- Josh Jacobs
- Ashton Jeanty
- Bijan Robinson
- Jonathan Taylor
- Kyren Williams

RB's who will see 250+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 9, so that's where I will draw the line)
- De'Von Achane
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Bucky Irving
- Aaron Jones
- Alvin Kamara
- Christian McCaffrey
- Joe Mixon
- Tony Pollard
- D'Andre Swift

RB's who will see 200+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 13, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Chase Brown
- James Conner
- James Cook
- Breece Hall
- Omarion Hampton
- Najee Harris
- Chuba Hubbard
- Quinshon Judkins
- David Montgomery
- Brian Robinson
- Tyrone Tracy
- Kenneth Walker
- Jaylen Warren

As you can see, I listed them alphabetically. Cases can easily be made to swap some of these guys up or down a group. A few that just missed the cut were:
- Rhamondre Stevenson and Treyveon Henderson - I think they will share pretty evenly
- Travis Etienne - I was sure he was much better than Bigsby, but he didn't show it last year.
You think mixon is going to have more touches than brown?
 
@TheWinz

My question is this...Of the RBs likely to lose their jobs or better yet, of the RBs likely to elevate and take over at some point to RB1, which ones are likely to produce real numbers?
I'm not sure I would have those answers readily available but curious what others think
I don't really know how to answer this, but I think I have a way that will spark some discussion:

RB's who will see 300+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 7, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Saquon Barkley
- Derrick Henry
- Josh Jacobs
- Ashton Jeanty
- Bijan Robinson
- Jonathan Taylor
- Kyren Williams

RB's who will see 250+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 9, so that's where I will draw the line)
- De'Von Achane
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Bucky Irving
- Aaron Jones
- Alvin Kamara
- Christian McCaffrey
- Joe Mixon
- Tony Pollard
- D'Andre Swift

RB's who will see 200+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 13, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Chase Brown
- James Conner
- James Cook
- Breece Hall
- Omarion Hampton
- Najee Harris
- Chuba Hubbard
- Quinshon Judkins
- David Montgomery
- Brian Robinson
- Tyrone Tracy
- Kenneth Walker
- Jaylen Warren

As you can see, I listed them alphabetically. Cases can easily be made to swap some of these guys up or down a group. A few that just missed the cut were:
- Rhamondre Stevenson and Treyveon Henderson - I think they will share pretty evenly
- Travis Etienne - I was sure he was much better than Bigsby, but he didn't show it last year.
Great list.

From the first group I think Kyren immediately jumps out as potentially reduced usage if not supplanted due to ineffectiveness.

He has talent for sure, but I question whether he is truly built to be a 300+ touch workhorse. He looks like the kind of player who should be on a pitch count.

There are a bunch of candidates in your tier two to churn out and make room for guys in tier three. But, good luck figuring out which ones.

I wouldn't necessarily avoid any of them but guys like Jones, Kamara, Mixon & McCaffrey are all very high mileage and give me pause. Then again, maybe we have entered an era of increased RB longevity.

Chase Brown seems miscast in tier three IMO. If any guy is situated for a jump it's him, IMO.
 
Based on FBG's current depth charts, who do you see losing their role as the top dog? I'm talking about losing it based on performance.


PHI 76 - (1)Barkley, (77)Shipley, Dillon, Williams, Nichols, Powell, Johnson
CIN 73 - (12) Brown, (89)Moss, Perine, (85)Brooks, Milton, Brightwell
LV 68 - (4)Jeanty, (72)Mostert, (86)McCormick, White, Laube, Collier
HOU 64- (15) Mixon, (79)Pierce, Ogunbowale, (94)Marks, Taylor, Brooks, Jordan
BAL 59 - (5) Henry, (64)Hill, (74)Mitchell, Ali, Major, Ntoh
IND 57 - (10) Taylor, (75)Herbert, (67)Giddens, Goodson, Ahmed
GB 45 - (9) Jacobs, Wilson, (54)Lloyd, (92)Brooks, Johnson, White
ATL 44 - (2) Robinson, (46) Allgeier, Washington, McClellan, Dotson, Carter
MIA 43 - (6) Achane, (49)Wright, (88)Mattison, (69)Gordon
NO 42 - (18) Kamara, (62)Miller, (60)Neal, Edwards-Helaire, Mims, Jones, Valladay, Yarns
SF 41- (7) McCaffrey, (48)Guerendo, (83)James, Taylor, Abanikanda
LAR 39 - (11) Williams, (50)Corum, (87)Hunter, Rivers, Schrader, Waters
NYJ 39 - (13) Hall, (52) Allen, (90)Davis, Nwangwu, Evans
KC 35 - (26) Pacheco, (61)Hunt, (66)Mitchell, Steele, (91)Smith, Ingram, Young
TB 34 - (8)Irving, (42)White, (81)Tucker, Williams
DEN 31 - (58)McLaughlin, (24) Harvey, (55)Estime, Badie, Watson
BUF 30 - (14) Cook, (44) Davis, (82)Johnson, Evans, Gore
ARI 28 - (19) Conner, (47) Benson, Demercado, Carter, Dallas, Knight
CHI 28 - (28) Swift, (56)Johnson, (70)Monangai, Homer, Wheeler
CAR 26 - (17) Hubbard, (43)Dowdle, (80)Etienne, Brooks, Blackshear, Bailey
CLE 24 - (51)Ford, (27) Judkins, (59)Sampson, Strong
SEA 19 - (16) Walker, (35)Charbonnet, McIntosh, (76)Martinez, Holani, Wright
DET 18 - (3) Gibbs, (21)Montgomery, Reynolds, Vaki
MIN 18 - (22) Jones, (40)Mason, (93)Chandler, Scott, Stewart
DAL 18 - (39)Williams, (78)Sanders, (57)Blue, (98)Mafah, Vaughn
WAS 16 - (29) Robinson, (45)Ekeler, McNichols, (97)Rodriguez, Croskey-Merritt, Felton, Allen, Wiley
TEN 15 - (23) Pollard, (38)Spears, Chestnut, Mullings, Small
LAC 13 - (33) Harris, (20)Hampton, Haskins, (84)Vidal, Patterson, (96)Sanders
NYG 10 - (31) Tracy, (71)Singletary, (41)Skattebo, Gray, Miller
NE 9 - (34) Stevenson, (25) Henderson, (63)Gibson, Jennings
PIT 2 - (32) Warren,(30) Johnson, (65)Gainwell, Patterson, Ward, Shampklin, Hull
JAC 1 - (36) Etienne, (37) Bigsby, (53) Tuten, Robinson, Allen, Jackson

Ranked from most feature dominant RB situations to the closest split. Specifically, the number next to the team represents the separation between the top ranked RB of that team and the second ranked, per fantasypros 1/2 PPR '25 rankings (top 98).

Ranked players appearing in blue are the third or fourth ranked RB on their team. Tuten takes the honors for top ranked #3. Tahj Brooks is the lowest ranked #2. Not sure that I agree with Etienne/Bigsby as the closest split for the top spot. Jaleel takes the honor of #1 RB per FBG that fantasypros doesn't believe is one of the top 2 RBs on his team.
 
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Is it simply a case of Shiny New Toy? Or Miller has had his chance and shown nothing? Or a combo of both?
I know this thread is mainly about starters but I think there are also a lot of very interesting backup RB battles and a few that are very similar to Kendre/Neal. In all cases is seems the preference is soundly for the shiny new toy. I can't knock that thought process in theory. What's behind the mystery door could be the next Bucky Irving so you like to take that shot but it does create a lot of value IMO for the cheap incumbent.

Two similar situations I think of are in Houston and Cincy.

No one wants Dameon Pierce while Woody Marks is a 3rd-4th round rookie draft pick. True fact, they are born in the same calendar year. Realize things went south for Pierce the last few years but he played well his rookie season, got one start last year and rolled for 170+, and yes that was greatly aided by a 90+ yard run but still. I think he adjusted to the scheme better but from what I've heard they have brought in personnel who can more effectively run a gap/power scheme which he's had more success. I like what I've seen from Woody Marks film, interesting guy , but my guess if I'd predict Marks will be the third down RB and if Pierce is not the Texans handcuff he's someone else and if he shows well he's a FA after the season in weak looking RB draft class. Imagine if the Bears wanted to acquire him cheap to put in the David Montgomery role? You never know. He's basically free, no one wants him, feel like if I did not draft him in last round or two of my dynasty drafts no one would.

In Cincy everyone seems to have blacked out fact that prior to Zach Moss getting hurt that backfield was almost 50/50. I've heard a few people say Brown was pulling away. Maybe, and I know he has now, but in Browns last few games it was 50/50 with really no sign of him burying Moss. So now they bring in Brooks and just like Houston were he's a 3rd-4th round rookie pick and Moss is 6th-7th. Even I took Brooks over Brown in our Sharkpool league early but tbh was trying to play the ADP game, thinking I needed to get him when I did and would try and move on Moss later. Again I'm sure people will read this and think Moss, he's no threat to even be much of a handcuff and again he just spent half the season in an even timeshare. My guess is if his neck is not limiting him in any way, he will in fact open up as Browns backup and main breather.

A lot of other backup/handcuff battles, more then I can recall, I just thought these two were very similar to the Saints situation though both Pierce and Moss have shown more then Kendre.
 
^^^^ I'm very determined to hold on to Pierce until '26 free agency, but it won't be easy. It will probably go as well as holding K Herbert until he could get out of Chicago.

Speaking of which, @menobrown , where are you on a shiny, new Giddens vs Khalil in Indy? I think I like the rook in that one, but I do think there's a case for Khalil in re-draft.

One where I think the not-so-exciting new toy might be getting short shrift: Jordan James A lot of excitement for Guerendo, and it's not without merit. He will have to do a lot to earn the comparison in the eyes of coaches, but I think James potentially profiles as the Jordan Mason replacement. Who had the better role between Guerendo and Mason before Mason's injury? Obviously, the deck was stacked against the rookie in that situation and can't ignore the fact that Guerendo's performance probably helped encourage the Niners to let Mason walk. However, I wouldn't count James out of having a role and possibly challenging Guerendo for the top spot if CMC goes down.
 
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^^^ I'm very determined to hold on to Pierce until '26 free agency, but it won't be easy. It will probably go as well as holding K Herbert until he can get out of Chicago.

Speaking of which, @menobrown , where are you on a shiny, new Giddens vs Khalil in Indy? I think I like the rook in that one, but I do think there's a case for Khalil in re-draft.
Giddens.

Herbert ran well in Chicago when he had some shots but he's one of those players that for whatever reason the NFL does not seem high on. Chicago seemed to be aggressive on not needing to rely on him and eventual give away to Cincy who had nothing behind Brown. Then Cincy never wanted to use him and had Chase Brown as an almost 100% RB. Then he hits FA and all he can get is a contract I think is league minimum. He's fighting for his NFL life.

One where I think the not-so-exciting new toy might be getting short shrift: Jordan James A lot of excitement for Guerendo, and it's not without merit. He will have to do a lot to earn the comparison in the eyes of coaches, but I think James potentially profiles as the Jordan Mason replacement. Who had the better role between Guerendo and Mason before Mason's injury? Obviously, the deck was stacked against the rookie in that situation and can't ignore the fact that Guerendo's performance probably helped encourage the Niners to let Mason walk. However, I wouldn't count James out of having a role and possibly challenging Guerendo for the top spot if CMC goes down.
This is a good backup battle in SF.

I felt like Kyle really started to like Guerendo, this one is tough, but I'd still prefer James. I think he's better then Mason, has a little more to offer in the passing game. Guerendo's a great athlete but never struck me as having a lot of natural RB instincts and James is almost the exact opposite. What's the best recent example of a mid round RB we hope we can find? Bucky Irvin. People like Dane Brugler and Todd McShay have said when watching 2023 Oregon tape they thought James was the better player. He's a singles hitter who will give you a few doubles and almost if not ever hit a homerun or break a huge play. It's a negative for sure but I feel like Kyle is going to grow very fond of him vs Guerendo because of his instincts and FBI. He's going to keep making the right reads, be very consistent and fade Guerendo to COP if CMC goes down. Wile CMC is healthy it really does not matter but Guerendo might be a better COP.

So prefer James, but do believe this one could go either way and none of will be worth a thing so long as CMC is upright.
 
I really don’t think Brian Robinson is the big winner everyone thinks. He really doesn’t fit what that offense wants out of its RB’s. I don’t even mean in a pass-catching capacity (where he’s a little underrated imo) but his vision is poor. Daniels is making split-second decisions on RPO’s and Robinson can’t read the shifting tide of big men well enough to exploit anything that isn’t obvious. He’ll gain positive yardage, he’s got a good story. He’s barely better than replacement level imo for what they want to do, even with an improved OL.

Now people may say…great. That can all be true, but they added no one to threaten him! Ekeler is noticeably better and more explosive (and they’ll be taking him off of PR’s this year to preserve him for offensive work imo, with the pick of Jaylin Lane) but is older, injuries racking up, concussion issues. Agreed. He’s not a bellcow, and is locked into COP.

Chris Rodriguez is replacement level, hasn’t been tested with a large NFL workload. Still better than Robinson imo, and the stats back that up. But the coaches won’t fully trust him. He allegedly had a so-so offseason with coaches last year, which for a new staff and new franchise culture…it’s no wonder he was yo-yo’d between the roster and PS much of the year, despite looking better than Robinson. They need 1000% buy-in from guys to contribute, period. So even though he’s “better” than Robinson on a per snap basis, it’s not him either.

Enter lowly 7th round pick Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He’s rising as a sleeper so I won’t bore everyone with why he fell in the draft, his eligibility issue that led to his sleeper status, his over-agedness, etc. We’re all well-researched here, I won’t dogpile about why he’s intriguing as a 7th rounder.

As a WAS homer, what I will add about him that’s imo relevant is that the team was connected to him all through the process. Met 3 times that were documented. They were reported to love Henderson but that was never happening, yet fans knew they were ere targeting RB’s. They met with tons of mid/late-round RB types (though none as often as JCM). It was clear what their plan was. But they waited. And waited. And waited. They only had 5 picks and never traded back bc every slot they arrived on the clock in the earlier rounds, they had someone they coveted on the board.

This staff and FO is extremely well-connected around the league (many GM’s are, I’m not acting like it’s rare—these guys all talk and have relationships, scouts on the road only have each other all year, etc.) I think they felt comfortable knowing a RB who on talent alone they had rated as a 3rd-4th rounder, would be there in the 7th. They weren’t so obsessed with drafting him that they were unwilling to lose him, obviously. I won’t pretend that. But I think they felt fairly confident they’d get a great value in him, and were willing to wait.

But I think they love him, and what he does well (change of direction mid-stride, vision behind the line, unpredictable at the 2nd level, toughness and recklessness at his size) really, really fits what they want from a RB. I don’t think he’s going to miracle his way into a bellcow role or anything, I’m not arguing he’s Arian Foster. But I think he’s going to not only make the roster on merit (he’ll make it impossible to hide him on the PS if he’s healthy for preseason imo), he’ll actually be a problem for Robinson. In a great offense with lots of potential opportunity.

This staff doesn’t care about pedigree or a nice story. JCM is a dog imo and he’s a natural runner with great vision. Everything that Robinson isn’t (he’s a straight-line athlete with bad eyes and nothing but getting caught from behind when he breaks past a linebacker), he is.

I think he’s a great sleeper, I think they rate him a lot higher than they had to draft him, and I think Robinson (for many reasons, not just a 7th round rookie) is in trouble.
 
@TheWinz

My question is this...Of the RBs likely to lose their jobs or better yet, of the RBs likely to elevate and take over at some point to RB1, which ones are likely to produce real numbers?
I'm not sure I would have those answers readily available but curious what others think
I don't really know how to answer this, but I think I have a way that will spark some discussion:

RB's who will see 300+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 7, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Saquon Barkley
- Derrick Henry
- Josh Jacobs
- Ashton Jeanty
- Bijan Robinson
- Jonathan Taylor
- Kyren Williams

RB's who will see 250+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 9, so that's where I will draw the line)
- De'Von Achane
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Bucky Irving
- Aaron Jones
- Alvin Kamara
- Christian McCaffrey
- Joe Mixon
- Tony Pollard
- D'Andre Swift

RB's who will see 200+ touches (since going to 17 games in 2021, the average has been 13, so that's where I will draw the line)
- Chase Brown
- James Conner
- James Cook
- Breece Hall
- Omarion Hampton
- Najee Harris
- Chuba Hubbard
- Quinshon Judkins
- David Montgomery
- Brian Robinson
- Tyrone Tracy
- Kenneth Walker
- Jaylen Warren

As you can see, I listed them alphabetically. Cases can easily be made to swap some of these guys up or down a group. A few that just missed the cut were:
- Rhamondre Stevenson and Treyveon Henderson - I think they will share pretty evenly
- Travis Etienne - I was sure he was much better than Bigsby, but he didn't show it last year.
You think mixon is going to have more touches than brown?
Yes. Mixon has averaged 19.2 touches per game for his career, and was at 20.1 last year (1 of only 7 RB's over 20). He hasn't fumbled the ball in his last 942 touches, which certainly keeps him on the field. He's a big-bodied 3-down RB who is a good pass-catcher (has averaged just shy of 50 receptions per 17 games for his career). I know Mixon has lots of touches, but he was never known as a speedster, but neither is his current backup. I ain't sticking a fork in Mixon just yet.

For the first 8 games when CIN had both Chase Brown and Zack Moss, Moss had 97 touches to Brown's 94. When Moss got injured, Brown took over and his YPC dropped nearly half a yard for the 2nd half of the season. Now, I'm not saying it's going to be a RBBC in CIN in 2025, but I do think the backups will eat into Brown more than Mixon's eat into his.
 
Is it true Travis Etienne's roster spot is iin trouble?

I haven't heard that, but there would be no cap savings if they cut him loose now. There would be if they found a trade partner, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears.

I'm assuming he'll be in the Jags backfield this season. 2026 is an entirely different story.
 
Is it true Travis Etienne's roster spot is iin trouble?
Saw this today.

JAX: Travis Etienne not a lock for 2025?


Jacksonville is entering the year with top backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, but given the extensive work the team has done to reshape the offensive line and their running backs room, neither player's roster spot should be guarantee

Interesting. I'm not sure I would call a 4th rounder (Tuten), a 7th (Allen), and UDFA (Jackson) extensive work to the RB room, but they did make it a priority more than other teams.

To me, this reads more like setting themselves up for '26 where Etienne walks in free agency and (possibly) not being in love with Bigsby. I think '25 will be an open competition where the new guys will play if they're outperforming Etienne and Bigsby. Contractually, I don't see the Jags paying Etienne not to be there UNLESS there is a trade suitor lined up. There very well could be, but I don't see the urgency to clear the runway for the 4th round rookie to take on a large role in his rookie year.
 
Is it true Travis Etienne's roster spot is iin trouble?
Saw this today.

JAX: Travis Etienne not a lock for 2025?


Jacksonville is entering the year with top backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, but given the extensive work the team has done to reshape the offensive line and their running backs room, neither player's roster spot should be guarantee

Interesting. I'm not sure I would call a 4th rounder (Tuten), a 7th (Allen), and UDFA (Jackson) extensive work to the RB room, but they did make it a priority more than other teams.

To me, this reads more like setting themselves up for '26 where Etienne walks in free agency and (possibly) not being in love with Bigsby. I think '25 will be an open competition where the new guys will play if they're outperforming Etienne and Bigsby. Contractually, I don't see the Jags paying Etienne not to be there UNLESS there is a trade suitor lined up. There very well could be, but I don't see the urgency to clear the runway for the 4th round rookie to take on a large role in his rookie year.
I agree with most of what you said. I do think they love Tuten however and was someone I made a priority in rookie drafts. Bigsby is meh.
 
Is it true Travis Etienne's roster spot is iin trouble?
Saw this today.

JAX: Travis Etienne not a lock for 2025?


Jacksonville is entering the year with top backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, but given the extensive work the team has done to reshape the offensive line and their running backs room, neither player's roster spot should be guarantee

Interesting. I'm not sure I would call a 4th rounder (Tuten), a 7th (Allen), and UDFA (Jackson) extensive work to the RB room, but they did make it a priority more than other teams.

To me, this reads more like setting themselves up for '26 where Etienne walks in free agency and (possibly) not being in love with Bigsby. I think '25 will be an open competition where the new guys will play if they're outperforming Etienne and Bigsby. Contractually, I don't see the Jags paying Etienne not to be there UNLESS there is a trade suitor lined up. There very well could be, but I don't see the urgency to clear the runway for the 4th round rookie to take on a large role in his rookie year.
I agree with most of what you said. I do think they love Tuten however and was someone I made a priority in rookie drafts. Bigsby is meh.

No, he is the current, reigning, ultimate JAG

Or at least I hope so, since I pretty much just tossed the guy in to a trade like a promotional keychain.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
This is the time of year where I relearn all players ages. Ha ha. Sure feels like Swift is older than 26. Hasn't been overused. Lots of tread left. Bears paying him top 10 rmoney. Time to get your money's worth and run this dude.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
This is the time of year where I relearn all players ages. Ha ha. Sure feels like Swift is older than 26. Hasn't been overused. Lots of tread left. Bears paying him top 10 rmoney. Time to get your money's worth and run this dude.
Yeah, it’s wild how young he is.

He’s shown flashes. I’m probably in for redraft. Unfortunately the time to buy would have been before the draft. He’s getting a lot of love as a “buy low”, which is pushing his value up in dynasty.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
Good posts. Not to get ahead of myself but as an FYI I noticed the following year they will owe him about 9 million and could release him at only a 1 million cap hit. I think he gets 300 touches.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
A guy like Chubb would be a nice complement to Swift - although given the seeming little interest in him among NFL teams, have to wonder if the league thinks he's totally washed.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
A guy like Chubb would be a nice complement to Swift - although given the seeming little interest in him among NFL teams, have to wonder if the league thinks he's totally washed.
It's possible Chubb is waiting for a camp injury. At this point it's likely IMO.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
A guy like Chubb would be a nice complement to Swift - although given the seeming little interest in him among NFL teams, have to wonder if the league thinks he's totally washed.
It's possible Chubb is waiting for a camp injury. At this point it's likely IMO.
I think he's just waiting on any opportunity he can get but he probably needs a camp injury to get that opportunity.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
A guy like Chubb would be a nice complement to Swift - although given the seeming little interest in him among NFL teams, have to wonder if the league thinks he's totally washed.
It's possible Chubb is waiting for a camp injury. At this point it's likely IMO.
I think he's just waiting on any opportunity he can get but he probably needs a camp injury to get that opportunity.
Yeah. Do you think he may have turned down some calls about signing a "prove it" deal early in the FA process and priced himself out of the market at that point?

I'd love the Raiders to kick the tires at least.
 
Yeah. Do you think he may have turned down some calls about signing a "prove it" deal early in the FA process and priced himself out of the market at that point?

I'd love the Raiders to kick the tires at least.
Possible, but I think it’s more likely that he wanted to get further along in his rehab before he went down that road.

There are still a couple of teams that could use his services, and recent workout videos are impressive (though I still haven’t seen him make lateral cuts)

Hard to know what his price is - as a Chase Brown truther I’m definitely hoping he goes to the Raiders, though the Bears seem like a probable landing spot.
 
BTW not to get off subject but if this is how teams RB's room look heading into the season would it be fair to say D'Andre Swift is the biggest RB winner of the off-season?
Fantasypros has him at rb25 for ppr. Seems so low. Just feels like I'm gonna have a lot of Swift shares. Well I'm in only in two leagues. So two shares. Ha ha
100%!

lol

Man I’m so hesitant to get back in on Swift. Seems like the stars are perfectly aligned… for a rug pull. lol
I'm all aboard.

I was worried before the draft of them adding someone like Henderson who can play his type of role and what that might have meant to him and was mainly avoiding him. Now I have zero concerns, don't care if they add a Chubb, trade for a someone to play the Monty role, etc,etc.

Because the way Ben Johnson used Swift with the Lions is exactly the way you want him used. Forgot total volume. Swifts done a solid job the last two years as a runner but he's been vastly underutilized in the passing game. Those runs were really a lot of emtpy fantasy points. I actually want them to sign someone to help take some of that rushing load off of him to let Johnson use him at what he does best.

When Johnson took over you really could not tell what was in store for Swift. Johnson said nothing but good things but you never know if it was just coachspeak. The way he's gone about the RB room, and by way I mean inaction, backs up everything he said.
Oh I get it. It’s a long time until the season though.
Like I just said, I'm all for them adding an upgrade over Roschon to be the banger. All for it. Think it's likely, they just want to give Roschon and Monangai a shot and if they don't like they'll do something. Go for it. The role I want to see Swift is the role like he played with the Lions. Only one year of that was with Johnson as his OC but he was on staff each of his 3 seasons.

More use in in passing game, less use as a runner.
A guy like Chubb would be a nice complement to Swift - although given the seeming little interest in him among NFL teams, have to wonder if the league thinks he's totally washed.
It's possible Chubb is waiting for a camp injury. At this point it's likely IMO.
I think he's just waiting on any opportunity he can get but he probably needs a camp injury to get that opportunity.
Yeah. Do you think he may have turned down some calls about signing a "prove it" deal early in the FA process and priced himself out of the market at that point?

I'd love the Raiders to kick the tires at least.
No I don't think so but suppose it's possible he could have got something like Miles Sanders one year deal for $1.197M guaranteed if he's been willing, which is to say league minimum type stuff but guaranteed.

I hate to sound harsh about it but the market is so soft for a lot of these veteran RB's right now there just is not much of a market to price yourself out of, I think any amount of money he's ever going to be offered this off-season is just so low it's not worth really quibbling over. The NFL did not come around to wanting to pay RB's a bunch of money, the only change is a few teams have come to the realization a very select few RB's are actually worth paying. It's status quo otherwise with the league treating this as a very fungible position and afraid his injuries and age have put him in this "replacement level" Rb class.

Among UFA Rb's Najee Harris got the biggest one year deal at $5.25m all guaranteed with incentives. I think Rico Dowdle at $2.7 was second.

He took a pay cut down to $2.25M last year coming off a massive injury which he returned from, but not to old Nick Chubb levels and suffered another less massive injury and is a year older.

Again just not any money going around for this class of RB to point not much to quibble over, more about fit or someone wanting you.
 
Yeah. Do you think he may have turned down some calls about signing a "prove it" deal early in the FA process and priced himself out of the market at that point?

I'd love the Raiders to kick the tires at least.
Possible, but I think it’s more likely that he wanted to get further along in his rehab before he went down that road.

There are still a couple of teams that could use his services, and recent workout videos are impressive (though I still haven’t seen him make lateral cuts)

Hard to know what his price is - as a Chase Brown truther I’m definitely hoping he goes to the Raiders, though the Bears seem like a probable landing spot.
I own a few Chase Brown shares and I'm nervous Chubb may end up there. Good compliment and gets to play the Browns twice.
 
Chubb to KC on some stupid cheap one-yr deal is my call. He's going to muck up one of these situations if he's healthy. Are we sure he is healthy?
 
Some takeaways from Mike Clay's 2025 projection guide relevant to this thread. For frame of reference on rookies, Jeanty projected at 1530 all-purpose yards and 9 TDs. Just about every meaningful RB was projected based on 14 games.
  • Judkins takeover projected in Cleveland with 1200 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs. Has Ford holding off Sampson for #2 520 to 320
  • Jaydon Blue currently in the #2 spot, 550 yards & 4TDs to Javonte's 980 & 7
  • Harvey takeover in Denver w/ 1200 & 7 TDs, McLaughlin next up at 670 & 4
  • Woody Marks 600 & 4 TDS, running well ahead of D Pierce for the #2
  • Tahj Brooks projected far behind both Moss & Perine
  • Giddens projected for only 250, but still good enough to beat Goodson and Herbert for the #2
  • About 800 yards for both Etienne and Bigsby, with bulk of receptions to Etienne. 470 total yards for Tuten
  • Year one takeover for Hampton at 1240 & 11 TDs, compared to 640 & 6 for Najee
  • Corum holding off Hunter as the distant #2 to Kyren
  • Wright as the #2 in Miami. Mattison #3. Next to nothing projected for Gordon.
  • Dead even fantasy split projected in New England between Henderson & Stevenson. Noteworthy given the clear #1 projections for Hampton, Judkins, Harvey, and Kaleb
  • Devin Neal barely projected in a #4 role in NO. Kendre Miller has 715 yards projected to Kamara's 1240 on 14 games (same as most RBs). Obviously, games played are his biggest hurdle. Still surprised a closer split with Neal isn't projected even if we're assuming health.
  • Tracy narrowly beating out Skattebo in all facets. 1050 & 6 compared to 900 & 5.
  • Not buying anything remotely resembling a committee for the Jets, 1400+ all-purpose for Hall
  • Kaleb Johnson 1160 & 8, to Warren's 980 & 5. Warren takes receptions 53-29
  • Guerendo firmly holding down the #2 in SF. Very little projected for James.
 

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