RBs to Exploit/Avoid...It's time folks! (1 Viewer)

[TERPDUDE]

Great work , I always look forward to reading your topics . I may not always agree with your forecasting but like the thought process involved.

I get same worries about Rice's timeshare (and I'm Raven fan) as i have 4th in one of my redrafts(non ppr) and leaning towards Gore/Turner as I believe Rice was closer to his ceiling last year than most think with the additions to passing game. He may score more touchdowns but receptions should drop alot with new WR's & Te's. McGahee has bulked up to handle short yardage role better too.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

[He was a key part? You pretty much got what you paid for last year in Grant and I expect the same this year. Consistancey is not what wins leagues. If you feel you hit a homerun later in the draft at WR then taking Grant is a good choice, but I think you are more likely to find R. Rice, Benson, J. Charles, J Harrison in the mid to later rounds this year then finding M. Austin, Sims Walker or S. Smith in the draft. I think you are going to be getting Addai in the 4th. Grant will be gone by then.

I was talking more about his playoff performance in which he scored 5 tds in 3 games. cracked 140 on chicago in round1 and 90+ week16 superbowl. His pittsburgh game was a stinker but if you played him he still got you a TD.The dude is underrated and wont be replaced this year unless injured.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Jahvid Best: I am a big fan of what Detroit is doing right now. I like Best and despite what I feel is a pretty tough schedule for a team that is 2-30 over their last 32 games, I actually think that could play an important role in what we can expect. First of all they upgraded the OL and they will play better as they will be together another season. I like the upgrades they made at WR and TE where they brought in both Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler. Stafford showed flashes last year and he should be ready to roll in year two. Even with the upgrades on defense the Lions are likely to be playing from behind and that bodes well for Best in terms of receptions. He will be on the field when they are in any passing situation. His back up Kevin Smith had a pretty bad injury last at the end of last year and I don't see him as a huge threat to Best developing quickly in the NFL. Taking Best as your RB2 in the early 5th to pair with guys like Chris Johnson, ADP, MJD, or Gore makes a very nice and explosive combo at RB. You probably won't start Best every week but he should be good for at least 8-10 solid games and you can find an RB3 to pair with him for when you are uncomfortable starting him.

I pretty much agree with the above, but I think Best's ADP will climb once people see some preseason games. This is always one of the best threads in here. Excellent read as always.

 

[shredhead]

Great read MoP, Thanks for writing it. I am at work, and have been reading this thread a little bit at a time between, well actually getting some work done. I think I got through this thread in 4 hours, ha ha

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jahvid Best: I am a big fan of what Detroit is doing right now. I like Best and despite what I feel is a pretty tough schedule for a team that is 2-30 over their last 32 games, I actually think that could play an important role in what we can expect. First of all they upgraded the OL and they will play better as they will be together another season. I like the upgrades they made at WR and TE where they brought in both Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler. Stafford showed flashes last year and he should be ready to roll in year two. Even with the upgrades on defense the Lions are likely to be playing from behind and that bodes well for Best in terms of receptions. He will be on the field when they are in any passing situation. His back up Kevin Smith had a pretty bad injury last at the end of last year and I don't see him as a huge threat to Best developing quickly in the NFL. Taking Best as your RB2 in the early 5th to pair with guys like Chris Johnson, ADP, MJD, or Gore makes a very nice and explosive combo at RB. You probably won't start Best every week but he should be good for at least 8-10 solid games and you can find an RB3 to pair with him for when you are uncomfortable starting him.

I pretty much agree with the above, but I think Best's ADP will climb once people see some preseason games. This is always one of the best threads in here. Excellent read as always.

Thanks AB, much appreciated.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great read MoP, Thanks for writing it. I am at work, and have been reading this thread a little bit at a time between, well actually getting some work done. I think I got through this thread in 4 hours, ha ha

I said you're gonna need a cold one. Preseason will likely shuffle the deck up some and also the ADP of many of these guys as others have said.

 

[Insein]

Excellent article. I mean thats really what this analysis should be called. Well written and well done.

I find myself agreeing with alot of the same backs. Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews represent so much risk for where they are going. Sure they may be a top 10 RB but you are drafting them to b your RB1 so they better be. They have as much potential to be only a top 25 RB. In which case, you're busted.

Ryan Grant I disagree with. Where you see medicority, I see consistency. He's not flashy but he consistently gets you 12-15 points every week. I like having a guy I know will get me 12-15 points every week. Allows you to take risks in other spots. Grant can be a good cornerstone for a RB group. If you take him as your RB1, then you can gamble on guys like Forsett and Harrison hoping that they payoff and produce way over their heads knowing you have a guaranteed 12-15 in your back pocket.

Only other thing I see is that I would go for Snelling over Norwood as the handcuff. Yes he's the same mold as Turner but he proved he brings more to the offense than Norwood last year once Turner went down.

 

[ATC1]

[He was a key part? You pretty much got what you paid for last year in Grant and I expect the same this year. Consistancey is not what wins leagues. If you feel you hit a homerun later in the draft at WR then taking Grant is a good choice, but I think you are more likely to find R. Rice, Benson, J. Charles, J Harrison in the mid to later rounds this year then finding M. Austin, Sims Walker or S. Smith in the draft. I think you are going to be getting Addai in the 4th. Grant will be gone by then.

I was talking more about his playoff performance in which he scored 5 tds in 3 games. cracked 140 on chicago in round1 and 90+ week16 superbowl. His pittsburgh game was a stinker but if you played him he still got you a TD.The dude is underrated and wont be replaced this year unless injured.

Fantasy playoff performance is luck You could have said the same about picking up J. Charles or Harrison last year in the playoffs. Sure it's nice to have a good playoff schedule, but who will be in the "zone" at that point in the season is anyone's guess.

Ryan Grant I disagree with. Where you see medicority, I see consistency. He's not flashy but he consistently gets you 12-15 points every week. I like having a guy I know will get me 12-15 points every week. Allows you to take risks in other spots. Grant can be a good cornerstone for a RB group. If you take him as your RB1, then you can gamble on guys like Forsett and Harrison hoping that they payoff and produce way over their heads knowing you have a guaranteed 12-15 in your back pocket.

Matt Forte was consistent last year that gave us 12-15 points a game. The problem being he was rated top 5 RB. However, because of that you can get the same consistency with higher upside IMO with Martz there now at a much cheaper price than Grant. (Forte ADP 4.05 vs Grant at 3.02).

 

[shredhead]

Great read MoP, Thanks for writing it. I am at work, and have been reading this thread a little bit at a time between, well actually getting some work done. I think I got through this thread in 4 hours, ha ha

I said you're gonna need a cold one.Preseason will likely shuffle the deck up some and also the ADP of many of these guys as others have said.

My boss frowns on that. I can click off this thread a lot quicker than I can hide a cold one if my boss comes snooping around.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great read MoP, Thanks for writing it. I am at work, and have been reading this thread a little bit at a time between, well actually getting some work done. I think I got through this thread in 4 hours, ha ha

I said you're gonna need a cold one.Preseason will likely shuffle the deck up some and also the ADP of many of these guys as others have said.

My boss frowns on that. I can click off this thread a lot quicker than I can hide a cold one if my boss comes snooping around.

Cold one...Coke or Pepsi at work, frosty adult beverages at home

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Saw this and thought some might want to read it...means nothing due to the time of year but it is food for thought.

Today - 11:25 AM ET Coach Gary Kubiak said that Arian Foster and Steve Slaton will both work with the starters in the Texans' exhibition opener Friday.

Not a huge surprise here. We know rookie Ben Tate is far off the pace in this battle and we also know that Foster is the heavy favorite for early down work. It will be interesting to see how often -- if it all -- Slaton is used outside of passing situations.

Source: Nick Scurfield on Twitter

 

[PhantomJB]

MOP,

Great insights and a pure pleasure to read. Look forward to following this closely as the pre-season unfolds.

I started a thread several days ago that enthusiastically (perhaps a little too much so, but oh well) promoted Gore as a #2 overall pick. Since then, however, they lost Heitmann at center with a broken leg for 6-8 wks and had to backfill with David Baas, who had lost his job to one of the two rookies.

(A) Is this a pause for concern for your outlook given two rookie OL starters will not have time to gel with a 9-yr vet and presumably OL signal caller? Or are the rookies that good that even losing a starter for awhile the line is still upgraded.

and

(B) What will you be looking for in preseason games in terms of OL cohesion/effectiveness?

Gracias again for the effort put into the article.

 

[Insein]

Matt Forte was consistent last year that gave us 12-15 points a game. The problem being he was rated top 5 RB. However, because of that you can get the same consistency with higher upside IMO with Martz there now at a much cheaper price than Grant. (Forte ADP 4.05 vs Grant at 3.02).

In what league was Forte consistant? I guess some scoring systems can be skewed but in my league Ryan Grant had 11 out of 15 games (Week 17 excluded) with double digit stats while Forte only had 6 out of 15. I think that is worth a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick for that kind of consistency.

 

[ATC1]

Matt Forte was consistent last year that gave us 12-15 points a game. The problem being he was rated top 5 RB. However, because of that you can get the same consistency with higher upside IMO with Martz there now at a much cheaper price than Grant. (Forte ADP 4.05 vs Grant at 3.02).

In what league was Forte consistant? I guess some scoring systems can be skewed but in my league Ryan Grant had 11 out of 15 games (Week 17 excluded) with double digit stats while Forte only had 6 out of 15. I think that is worth a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick for that kind of consistency.

ppg average. PPR.Forte - 15.606 12 games over 10Grant - 15.625 13 games over 10

 

[Instinctive]

Grant was indeed great for me week in and week out last year, so i gotta disagree there MoP. I may be going Brees/Roddy or Randy/Peyton in hopes of grabbing Grant. 1200 yards, gets receiving yards, scores TDs and has 300+ touches most likely. He's like Thomas Jones...steady, but important. Same as what Rudi Johnson used to be, except Rudi routinely went in round 1 in the middle or end. I love me some Ryan Grant in round 3.

Wells/McCoy, however, I also plan to be avoiding. Just think the risk is too much for their draft position. And Brown is kind of like Ray Rice last year but less talented IMO... he's behind a vet that's steady but nothing special and he could potentially get a lot of touches. He's a guy I will take a chance on only if he falls. And that brings me to another thing...Don't think I'll be taking addai this year.

He's steady, and decent, but i see a timeshare and a lot of throwing, and I would rather get Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis or a WR here and then take guys like Foster and Maroney later. Maroney may not be that great, but if his 34 year old RB partners get injured (what a surprise) he could see 20 carries a game. Anybody who gets 20 carries a game is useful. Note, I play in a 2/2/flex league, so he would be a flex guy.

Myideal team usually has a RB corps of Grant, Bradshaw, Michael Bush, Maroney, Foster. Every single one of those guys could be top 10, and when you get to a certain point in a draft, that's what you're shooting for...a chance at top 10.

 

[Matt Waldman]

First time reading this thread and really enjoyed it MOP - I like how you consider a variety of ways people might be drafting and incorporate that commentary into your rankings of the backs. I'll definitely be looking for this in future seasons.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP,

Great insights and a pure pleasure to read. Look forward to following this closely as the pre-season unfolds.

I started a thread several days ago that enthusiastically (perhaps a little too much so, but oh well) promoted Gore as a #2 overall pick. Since then, however, they lost Heitmann at center with a broken leg for 6-8 wks and had to backfill with David Baas, who had lost his job to one of the two rookies.

(A) Is this a pause for concern for your outlook given two rookie OL starters will not have time to gel with a 9-yr vet and presumably OL signal caller? Or are the rookies that good that even losing a starter for awhile the line is still upgraded.

and

(B) What will you be looking for in preseason games in terms of OL cohesion/effectiveness?

Gracias again for the effort put into the article.

Good observation. I am pretty bullish on Gore and like what he brings to the table. The schedule is very forgiving for them with Sea, NO, and KC to open the season. Then ATL and PHI, then it's Oak, Car, and Den before a bye week and then it's really gonna be soft with St Louis, TB, AZ, GB(not sold on that defense yet), Money weeks of Sea, SD, and St L then AZ to wrap it up in week 17. Those are not the toughest rush defenses in the league. Here is what I wrote in the OL article back in July.

"They have had a terrific off season and there is a lot to like with the OL they drafted in April. At LT, hopefully Joe Staley will remain healthy and be the pillar that he should be on this team. Last year he missed time but played about half a season only allowing one sack and was never called for one penalty. That folks is dominating and we hope to see more of it. The RT spot will be a battle between rookie Anthony Davis and veteran Barry Sims. The good news is there is depth here and guys can get a breather once in awhile. The Niners are going to be tough in short yardage situations because of their depth.

Inside you have rookie Mike Iupati at LG. This writer was high on Iupati coming out of college and some experts felt he was one of the top OL overall in the draft. He has good feet although at guard he won't need that as much but he can line up and tee off on the defense. This is welcome news for Frank Gore owners. Adam Snyder was forced to play OT last year and he was not effective. This year he will roll back inside and compete in camp at RG vs. David Baas and Chilo Rachal. Again the good news is there is depth here and a rotation of guys that can come in on short yardage situations to move the sticks. Eric Heitmann is nothing special at center but his game might improve with the infusion of talent now inside for the running game. Heitmann by far is not a liability but he is quite further down the totem pole from some of the better centers in the league.

Iupati at LG, Snyder, Baas, and maybe Rachal will compete for the RG and C spots to open the season. Cody Wallace is also coming into his 3rd season. He's 6-4 300 lbs and has beenrunning the 2nd unit. Maybe not ideal but Heitmann is really avg or below avg in NFL terms, it's not the end of the world.

 

[lakermadness07]

i have AP....and i am high on Gore too.....would u recomend trading AP for Gore???

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Grant was indeed great for me week in and week out last year, so i gotta disagree there MoP. I may be going Brees/Roddy or Randy/Peyton in hopes of grabbing Grant. 1200 yards, gets receiving yards, scores TDs and has 300+ touches most likely. He's like Thomas Jones...steady, but important. Same as what Rudi Johnson used to be, except Rudi routinely went in round 1 in the middle or end. I love me some Ryan Grant in round 3.Wells/McCoy, however, I also plan to be avoiding. Just think the risk is too much for their draft position. And Brown is kind of like Ray Rice last year but less talented IMO... he's behind a vet that's steady but nothing special and he could potentially get a lot of touches. He's a guy I will take a chance on only if he falls. And that brings me to another thing...Don't think I'll be taking addai this year.He's steady, and decent, but i see a timeshare and a lot of throwing, and I would rather get Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis or a WR here and then take guys like Foster and Maroney later. Maroney may not be that great, but if his 34 year old RB partners get injured (what a surprise) he could see 20 carries a game. Anybody who gets 20 carries a game is useful. Note, I play in a 2/2/flex league, so he would be a flex guy.Myideal team usually has a RB corps of Grant, Bradshaw, Michael Bush, Maroney, Foster. Every single one of those guys could be top 10, and when you get to a certain point in a draft, that's what you're shooting for...a chance at top 10.

Middle to late part of round 3, I could agree with you but he is going off the board soemtimes at the end of the 2nd when there are still premium WRs still on the board. Again I play in a lot of best ball leagues and there is no reason to reach for him when you can platoon a trio of guys as your RB2. He certianly is not a true RB1 IMO. Good analysis and feedback, thanks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

First time reading this thread and really enjoyed it MOP - I like how you consider a variety of ways people might be drafting and incorporate that commentary into your rankings of the backs. I'll definitely be looking for this in future seasons.

Much appreciated Matt. You have quite a following yourself in here. Don't be a stranger in the weekly RB thread, I'm sure folks would like to read your thoughts on some of the match ups.

 

[Insein]

Matt Forte was consistent last year that gave us 12-15 points a game. The problem being he was rated top 5 RB. However, because of that you can get the same consistency with higher upside IMO with Martz there now at a much cheaper price than Grant. (Forte ADP 4.05 vs Grant at 3.02).

In what league was Forte consistant? I guess some scoring systems can be skewed but in my league Ryan Grant had 11 out of 15 games (Week 17 excluded) with double digit stats while Forte only had 6 out of 15. I think that is worth a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick for that kind of consistency.

ppg average. PPR.Forte - 15.606 12 games over 10Grant - 15.625 13 games over 10

I guess he has value for PPR based on the stats he put up in a few of the games.

 

[Team Legacy]

This is one of your best posts MOP. If only you had used accurate ADP, rather than the DD ADP you used.

Regardless the content behind the players is solid. MOP is a born staffer!

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Very nice, MoP

 

[kylechoffman]

Good stuff as usual MOP. I have long enjoyed your work and your weekly start sit type threads. I hope you will be doing a WR one too when you have time.

 

[rascal]

 

[Matt Waldman]

First time reading this thread and really enjoyed it MOP - I like how you consider a variety of ways people might be drafting and incorporate that commentary into your rankings of the backs. I'll definitely be looking for this in future seasons.

Much appreciated Matt. You have quite a following yourself in here. Don't be a stranger in the weekly RB thread, I'm sure folks would like to read your thoughts on some of the match ups.

I'll do my best...I sometimes kind of lose track of time while working on my stuff, but I'll keep my eyes peeled.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

Thanks MOP - you have a lot more followers/readers than you probably realize!

 

[Curado Kev]

Thank the NFL Gods !!! MOP is back - NOW we know NFL season is here !!!

Great Stuff MOP and why aren't you a full-time FBG staffer ?

All my buddies who don't subscribe to FBG because they are not hardcore and are only in office pools. They always make sure they check out the weekly MOP report.

Thanks for taking the time and outside of the FBG staff, your posts are great.

Kev

 

[joey]

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

[He was a key part? You pretty much got what you paid for last year in Grant and I expect the same this year. Consistancey is not what wins leagues. If you feel you hit a homerun later in the draft at WR then taking Grant is a good choice, but I think you are more likely to find R. Rice, Benson, J. Charles, J Harrison in the mid to later rounds this year then finding M. Austin, Sims Walker or S. Smith in the draft. I think you are going to be getting Addai in the 4th. Grant will be gone by then.

I was talking more about his playoff performance in which he scored 5 tds in 3 games. cracked 140 on chicago in round1 and 90+ week16 superbowl. His pittsburgh game was a stinker but if you played him he still got you a TD.The dude is underrated and wont be replaced this year unless injured.

Fantasy playoff performance is luck You could have said the same about picking up J. Charles or Harrison last year in the playoffs. Sure it's nice to have a good playoff schedule, but who will be in the "zone" at that point in the season is anyone's guess.

Ryan Grant I disagree with. Where you see medicority, I see consistency. He's not flashy but he consistently gets you 12-15 points every week. I like having a guy I know will get me 12-15 points every week. Allows you to take risks in other spots. Grant can be a good cornerstone for a RB group. If you take him as your RB1, then you can gamble on guys like Forsett and Harrison hoping that they payoff and produce way over their heads knowing you have a guaranteed 12-15 in your back pocket.

Matt Forte was consistent last year that gave us 12-15 points a game. The problem being he was rated top 5 RB. However, because of that you can get the same consistency with higher upside IMO with Martz there now at a much cheaper price than Grant. (Forte ADP 4.05 vs Grant at 3.02).

you are the one who said you cant win with Grant. Win what exactly? The guy was solid all year and produced nicely at the end. Has little to no competition for touches. Great bargain on draft day. Good luck with Forte who knows whats gonna happen there with Mad Martz

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

great job MoP

 

[flooredyas]

Awesome work MOP. Have read your posts for a long time and never took the time to say THANK YOU.

Now I feel better.

 

[lakermadness07]

so then question for u MOP.

if u had pick 3. and AP was on the board. would u draft him or Gore?

 

[the spanker]

All I can say is thank you MOP once again for your well thought out insightful analysis.

You are the MAN! Please oh PLEASE do a WR analysis.

FWI guys Fantasy Football Calculator has Grant's ADP at 3.03 and Benson at 3.09.

I mean is there much difference between the two? OK Grant does play in a much better offense

with less competiton for touches but Benson has the much better backup in Bernard Scott if he were to go down with an injury.

neither of these guys are used much in the passing game right?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

so then question for u MOP.if u had pick 3. and AP was on the board. would u draft him or Gore?

I'd have to think about it but I can't see passing up Adrian Peterson.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

All I can say is thank you MOP once again for your well thought out insightful analysis.You are the MAN! Please oh PLEASE do a WR analysis.FWI guys Fantasy Football Calculator has Grant's ADP at 3.03 and Benson at 3.09.I mean is there much difference between the two? OK Grant does play in a much better offensewith less competiton for touches but Benson has the much better backup in Bernard Scott if he were to go down with an injury.neither of these guys are used much in the passing game right?

WR is going to be pretty consuming but look for something in the not too distant future.

 

[the spanker]

All I can say is thank you MOP once again for your well thought out insightful analysis.You are the MAN! Please oh PLEASE do a WR analysis.FWI guys Fantasy Football Calculator has Grant's ADP at 3.03 and Benson at 3.09.I mean is there much difference between the two? OK Grant does play in a much better offensewith less competiton for touches but Benson has the much better backup in Bernard Scott if he were to go down with an injury.neither of these guys are used much in the passing game right?

WR is going to be pretty consuming but look for something in the not too distant future.

Thank You!

 

[Rovers]

Great stuuf MoP, seriously. Your take on Greene:

Shonn Greene: I have seen him fall as far to the 4th round especially in PPR leagues where the best you can hope for is something like Michael Turner but to me that is a huge leap of faith. He's 6-0, 230 lbs and doesn't run low to the ground so to me he is an injury waiting to happen. He looked great in the 2 playoff games last year but low and behold he pulled up gimpy against the Colts in the 1st half of that football game IIRC. There are so many Jets fans in this world that he does tend to fly off the board. I had a chance to grab him on the 3 /4 turn recently and passed. I'm not sold on him and I think he will share duties more than folks want to realize. If New York can keep him somewhere between 15-18 carries a game he might hold up but they seem ready to try and cram 20-25 carries a game from this guy and that will not add up for him to stay healthy IMO. Great OL in front of him though so there is a % chance for him to finish with healthy stats at the end of the year…I just don't think it's anywhere near 80-90% which is what most folks seem to think who are drafting him.

I share the injury concern, but I wonder if it is overblown. This is some cut and paste from something I already posted elsewhere, but it fits.

The Jets faced a stacked box the entire year. Teams tried to force the rookie Sanchez into throwing all year long, but the Jets continued to run the ball. If one wants to devalue Greene for having only one 100 yard game in the regular season, remember that Greene only got over 13 carries twice all regular season. In the 2 games he did get more than 13 carries:

Week 7, OAK- 19 carries, 144 yards, 33 yard TD run.

Week 16, IND- 16 carries for 95 yards.

Greene had 4 games including the playoffs in which he had more than 13 carries. in 3 of them, he was well over 100 yards rushing. In the other, he had 95 yards on 16 carries.

Greene's YPC in the regular season was 5.0, and 5.6 in the playoffs. The trend for Greene is the more carries he gets, the higher his YPC gets. He did have 168 carries before the bruised rib injury in the playoffs. That might have kept him out for a week, maybe two. His injury history does not suggest he is brittle, not when compared to just about any other RB in the NFL. The TC injury was an ankle. Not related to his running style. Lots of NFL'ers tweak ankles. I do however have some trepidation due to his running style, but 168 carries without injury does not imply he is injury prone per se.

So, it was hardly Greene's fault he didn't get carries, Jones was running plenty well enough and wisely, the Jets were slow to start two rookies in the O backfield, Sanchez's growing pains were more than enough to deal with. When Greene had his opportunites, he didn't just play well, he played very well. An objective look at his whole year proves this out. EVERY time Greene got an opportunity to play, he played extremely well.

Reports from camp is that his pass blocking is greatly improved, and his pass catching has improved some as well.

The two risk factors are will he hold up to 20-23 carries a game and will he get the GL carries. His YPC was impressive to say the least. If he stays healthy he's a near lock to be top 10. I do expect the Jets to pass more, and that will help Greene, not hurt him.

I think he is a third round pick in a 0.5 PPR system, but with upside, along with some risk which I think may be over estimated. If I had two good WR's already, I'd take him in the third. Otherwise I'd probably wait until the fourth. Frankly, I like his situation and risk significantly more than Mathew's.

Keep up the great work!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great stuuf MoP, seriously. Your take on Greene:Shonn Greene: I have seen him fall as far to the 4th round especially in PPR leagues where the best you can hope for is something like Michael Turner but to me that is a huge leap of faith. He's 6-0, 230 lbs and doesn't run low to the ground so to me he is an injury waiting to happen. He looked great in the 2 playoff games last year but low and behold he pulled up gimpy against the Colts in the 1st half of that football game IIRC. There are so many Jets fans in this world that he does tend to fly off the board. I had a chance to grab him on the 3 /4 turn recently and passed. I'm not sold on him and I think he will share duties more than folks want to realize. If New York can keep him somewhere between 15-18 carries a game he might hold up but they seem ready to try and cram 20-25 carries a game from this guy and that will not add up for him to stay healthy IMO. Great OL in front of him though so there is a % chance for him to finish with healthy stats at the end of the year…I just don't think it's anywhere near 80-90% which is what most folks seem to think who are drafting him. I share the injury concern, but I wonder if it is overblown. This is some cut and paste from something I already posted elsewhere, but it fits. The Jets faced a stacked box the entire year. Teams tried to force the rookie Sanchez into throwing all year long, but the Jets continued to run the ball. If one wants to devalue Greene for having only one 100 yard game in the regular season, remember that Greene only got over 13 carries twice all regular season. In the 2 games he did get more than 13 carries:Week 7, OAK- 19 carries, 144 yards, 33 yard TD run. Week 16, IND- 16 carries for 95 yards. Greene had 4 games including the playoffs in which he had more than 13 carries. in 3 of them, he was well over 100 yards rushing. In the other, he had 95 yards on 16 carries. Greene's YPC in the regular season was 5.0, and 5.6 in the playoffs. The trend for Greene is the more carries he gets, the higher his YPC gets. He did have 168 carries before the bruised rib injury in the playoffs. That might have kept him out for a week, maybe two. His injury history does not suggest he is brittle, not when compared to just about any other RB in the NFL. The TC injury was an ankle. Not related to his running style. Lots of NFL'ers tweak ankles. I do however have some trepidation due to his running style, but 168 carries without injury does not imply he is injury prone per se. So, it was hardly Greene's fault he didn't get carries, Jones was running plenty well enough and wisely, the Jets were slow to start two rookies in the O backfield, Sanchez's growing pains were more than enough to deal with. When Greene had his opportunites, he didn't just play well, he played very well. An objective look at his whole year proves this out. EVERY time Greene got an opportunity to play, he played extremely well. Reports from camp is that his pass blocking is greatly improved, and his pass catching has improved some as well. The two risk factors are will he hold up to 20-23 carries a game and will he get the GL carries. His YPC was impressive to say the least. If he stays healthy he's a near lock to be top 10. I do expect the Jets to pass more, and that will help Greene, not hurt him. I think he is a third round pick in a 0.5 PPR system, but with upside, along with some risk which I think may be over estimated. If I had two good WR's already, I'd take him in the third. Otherwise I'd probably wait until the fourth. Frankly, I like his situation and risk significantly more than Mathew's. Keep up the great work!

 

[Tony Jabroni]

A very good read, sir.

 

[Garts]

can't wait to see Donald Brown start at least 4-5 games this year

NO, I dont have a crystal ball

 

[CHEF]

Enjoyed it.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I know it's only preseason, but this Cowboy fan is a little worried about Felix Jones. I haven't wanted to admit it, but I am. His running style lends itself to taking big hits.

 

[Tanner9919]

MOP

I like you're opinion of Michael Bush..I think he's going to be a sneaky play this season..he looked good last night,albeit in a preseason game..I think Oakland's going to be one of the surprise teams in 2010..their O-line looks legit, the defense is solid..

That Dallas O-line got blown to pieces last night, I'm not sending out the distress signal just yet, but,

if that O-line continues to struggle you can forget about the 3-headed monster RBBC of Barber,Jones, Choice...

 

[Arizona Ron]

When is FBG going to hire you MOP? Really, when?

He failed the math test on the application. Seriously though, good stuff MOP.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOPI like you're opinion of Michael Bush..I think he's going to be a sneaky play this season..he looked good last night,albeit in a preseason game..I think Oakland's going to be one of the surprise teams in 2010..their O-line looks legit, the defense is solid..That Dallas O-line got blown to pieces last night, I'm not sending out the distress signal just yet, but,if that O-line continues to struggle you can forget about the 3-headed monster RBBC of Barber,Jones, Choice...

Hi Tanner,I was going to put up a similar thread about the Oakland Raiders like I wrote up on the KC Chiefs. 1st of the all the Oakland Raiders on defense are going to be legit, love the McClain pick and think he will give them an atitude. They have one of th ebest CBs in the game next to Revis and that takes away quite a bot of the field. Then you have veteran leadership with guys like Richard Seymour and Henderson along the DL. Oakland is not going to be a lot of fun to go up against for opposing offenses and Dallas was tested last night although it really boiled down to them not being able to punch it in once they got into the red zone. I am starting to feel like Bush could really outplay his draft spot but there are parts of him and his game I'm not keen on. He might be too big for the position and the ability for him to hold up to say 240-250+ carries, we haven't seen him do that yet. But as an RB3 or RB4 he seems to be worth the gamble. Nice post

 

[kupcho1]

Brandon Jacobs: I've seen him go a few places and usually he slips in drafts as team owners get cold feet and typically want to pass on him. He offers nothing in terms of receptions, and he has to share the load now with Bradshaw who most feel will be a bigger part of the offense. I am not too high on him and when you compare him to possibly taking a guy like Barber who we just discussed I wouldn't see Jacobs as any value. The Giants are trying to become a more vertical team to keep up with teams like Dallas, Philly, and New Orleans so the days of them running it down your throat are starting to fade. Bradshaw can get the job done if he is healthy and adds more dimension to the passing game. I probably pass on Jacobs. Do you really want to have to start this guy every week? That cannot be a recipe for success.

Really? No value?The Giants' coaching staff is saying they want to run the ball more. And if Dallas and Philly are going to be explosive offenses, why not take the air out of the ball?

I don't think he repeats 2008 numbers, but I think he improves on last year. I've got other options, so I don't need to start him. But I did keep him for great depth and maybe the occasional spot start.

 

[ATC1]

[He was a key part? You pretty much got what you paid for last year in Grant and I expect the same this year. Consistancey is not what wins leagues. If you feel you hit a homerun later in the draft at WR then taking Grant is a good choice, but I think you are more likely to find R. Rice, Benson, J. Charles, J Harrison in the mid to later rounds this year then finding M. Austin, Sims Walker or S. Smith in the draft. I think you are going to be getting Addai in the 4th. Grant will be gone by then.

I was talking more about his playoff performance in which he scored 5 tds in 3 games. cracked 140 on chicago in round1 and 90+ week16 superbowl. His pittsburgh game was a stinker but if you played him he still got you a TD.The dude is underrated and wont be replaced this year unless injured.

Fantasy playoff performance is luck You could have said the same about picking up J. Charles or Harrison last year in the playoffs. Sure it's nice to have a good playoff schedule, but who will be in the "zone" at that point in the season is anyone's guess.

Ryan Grant I disagree with. Where you see medicority, I see consistency. He's not flashy but he consistently gets you 12-15 points every week. I like having a guy I know will get me 12-15 points every week. Allows you to take risks in other spots. Grant can be a good cornerstone for a RB group. If you take him as your RB1, then you can gamble on guys like Forsett and Harrison hoping that they payoff and produce way over their heads knowing you have a guaranteed 12-15 in your back pocket.

Matt Forte was consistent last year that gave us 12-15 points a game. The problem being he was rated top 5 RB. However, because of that you can get the same consistency with higher upside IMO with Martz there now at a much cheaper price than Grant. (Forte ADP 4.05 vs Grant at 3.02).

you are the one who said you cant win with Grant. Win what exactly? The guy was solid all year and produced nicely at the end. Has little to no competition for touches. Great bargain on draft day. Good luck with Forte who knows whats gonna happen there with Mad Martz

I did not say you can not win with Grant. I said he will not win it for you. As MOP said it's the guy that you picked later that will make it into the top 5 at his position that will help you win your league. If you find that guy and have Grant as your RB2, you have a good 1-2 punch at RB.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Brandon Jacobs: I've seen him go a few places and usually he slips in drafts as team owners get cold feet and typically want to pass on him. He offers nothing in terms of receptions, and he has to share the load now with Bradshaw who most feel will be a bigger part of the offense. I am not too high on him and when you compare him to possibly taking a guy like Barber who we just discussed I wouldn't see Jacobs as any value. The Giants are trying to become a more vertical team to keep up with teams like Dallas, Philly, and New Orleans so the days of them running it down your throat are starting to fade. Bradshaw can get the job done if he is healthy and adds more dimension to the passing game. I probably pass on Jacobs. Do you really want to have to start this guy every week? That cannot be a recipe for success.

Really? No value?The Giants' coaching staff is saying they want to run the ball more. And if Dallas and Philly are going to be explosive offenses, why not take the air out of the ball?

I don't think he repeats 2008 numbers, but I think he improves on last year. I've got other options, so I don't need to start him. But I did keep him for great depth and maybe the occasional spot start.

Where does Bradshaw fit in?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

you are the one who said you cant win with Grant. Win what exactly? The guy was solid all year and produced nicely at the end. Has little to no competition for touches. Great bargain on draft day. Good luck with Forte who knows whats gonna happen there with Mad Martz

I did not say you can not win with Grant. I said he will not win it for you. As MOP said it's the guy that you picked later that will make it into the top 5 at his position that will help you win your league. If you find that guy and have Grant as your RB2, you have a good 1-2 punch at RB.

Let me jump in here and say my piece on this. And also this is why I don't inject a lot of stats into my write up, mind you I could do that but I like to save that stuff for when people start debating players and we need more than a gut feeling on how to go about rating the player. 1. Let's break it down to how he scored last year, I always include PPR as the standard and Grant posted totals of 13, 15, 11, and 14 the 1st 4 weeks of the season. Those 4 weeks he was 20th, 20th, 28th, and 16th in the weekly rankings. I understand there are players that hit those top20 top30 marks that are never started by their owners but I am just saying that Grant was nothing special during the early part of the season. In the RB weekly I mentioned that he was good for 10-15 a week but was offering little upside, just steady points which is fine in certain situations. Beyond that he had 2 big games all season where he scored North of 20 which I think is the mark of a big week. 2. He did score 20+ in 2 of the 3 big playoff weeks so owners came away with a sweet taste in their mouth which is probably where this high pick of the late 2nd is coming from. DId you know that Grant did not even catch a ball in weeks 14-17 down the stretch? I would say he offers very little in the passing game on a team that likes to throw. 3. Joseph Addai actually finished the season just a smidge ahead of Grant so I ask the question again...instead of Grant on the 2/3 turn, why not take Addai on the 4/5 turn? Or instead of Grant in the middle of the 3rd, why not Addai in the middle of the 4th? The WR or top flight QB you can get in the 3rd like a Romo(perhaps) or Peyton, or Brady, why not grab one of those and get another back in the 4th with about the same production? It's just food for thought, it's not the end all be all but the way I wrote this is to make owners feel comfortable and realize that they can wait and still come out of the 1st 5-7 rounds with a solid backfield and not have to reach.