Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I was thinking about how I wanted to go about writing this. There are lots of articles on FBG and other sites with rankings, tiers, projections, and the like. And I started thinking about what it really boils down to. It's not projections, it's not MOP grades, it's not trying to say something different just to be different, what it really boils down to is where the players can be had in the draft and maximizing your value for that particular pick or round. I am going to go thru these RBs and compare what you are giving up in order to take that player. This year as much as any there seems to be a lot of depth at RB. But depth in what format…best ball? In non PPR leagues I would say that the depth falls off quickly, in PPR leagues not as fast, in leagues where you have to fill out a starting line up again the depth drops off quicker vs best ball where you just draft n go.
I have to say that I have become very slanted towards best ball. In the 8-12 leagues that I will compete in including FBG sponsored events the majority of those leagues are best ball. In fact there is only 1 league I can think of where I have to fill out a roster on Sundays and even in that one I own Chris Johnson and Michael Turner so the reality is I won't be thinking much about who I have to start. I do not say these things to try and impress you but rather to impress upon you the point of view from which I am coming from. With that in mind I decided to use the ADP format that FBG provides in the DD…sorry but I like abbreviations.
Whenever possible I will try to point out other positions that might be a better idea than going RB at certain points in the draft. These are all my opinions mind you, please don't get offended if I am not giving a glowing report on ¾ of your dynasty RB stable. I am only speaking about redraft in 2010. It's definitely not personal. If you like a player that I don't let's discuss it. Sometimes I am off and I admit that. The purpose of this thread is to spark discussion and allow us time to collect our thoughts and finalize strategy before the upcoming redrafts we take part in.
You are going to notice that I don't project out very often for the players. I find them a waste of time and they also psychologically tend to marry you to some players. I do look at schedules but not much deeper than the NFC West and the AFC West have cake walks for the most part. Also I am not ranking these in any particular order, just going thru them according to where they are being drafted, hope that makes sense for you.
Want to get to the main event? Me too, let's roll.
High 1st round…Doesn't matter what most say, these 5 guys are going to be grabbed early so if you don't have a top5 pick don't waste much time looking them over.
Chris Johnson: Very simple. He showed us stuff we haven't seen since Barry Sanders left Detroit. I'm not claiming they are the same RB but the excitement that this guy brought was like something we have not seen in awhile. Sure LT is and was sensational but Chris Johnson simply hits for distance. To not take him at #1 is probably over thinking it.
Throughout this I will try and talk about the back up and what they bring to the table. Some people may not know much about Javon Ringer but this guy managed to carry the ball well North of 300 times when he was playing in the Big 10 as a Senior. I do think Tennessee will lighten the load up some for Johnson and that might actually give us a chance to see what this kid is capable of. He was buried on the charts but is now an injury away from seeing real action. The preseason may give us a glimpse of Ringer as well. Many in the FF community like him but we all know that he is zero threat to Chris Johnson.
Adrian Peterson: I don't care if he fumbles the ball 20 times he is not going to be sat down anytime soon. It seemed like he had his best game in Cleveland week 1 last year. That's not really true but those stiff arms he put on the Browns reminded us all of another Brown from generations past and that's of course Jim Brown. The offensive line (OL) is not what many think. Some of it doesn't seem to be working in both run blocking and pass protecting. But the fact is ADP has been top 3 all three years he has been in the league, one of the safest picks you can make.
Toby Gerhart is the new back up as Chester Taylor who we'll discuss later has left for Chicago. Gerhart will see the field but probably sparingly. Peterson is a shoe in for 320+ carries and a good amount of receptions, probably at least 350+ touches so Gerhart is really just a simple hand cuff. The offense would go way down if he had to see the field due to injury to ADP.
Maurice Jones Drew: 8th, 13th, 9th, then 3rd last year. 115 receptions the past 2 years in an offense that doesn't have s great set of WRs, doesn't have a stud TE, he'll continue to see 350+ touches and 15, 9, 14, and 16 for Td totals the past 4 years, he is a bonafide stud. I was very late to the train on him but there is no reason to come up with doubts about him. I wouldn't even really look over the schedule much, he's simply unstoppable and sooner or later he is going to get his. No competition to deal with and really I wouldn't waste roster space on a handcuff for him because the Jags would fall apart without him.
Frank Gore: 4th, 9th, 14th, then 5th last year. Top5 twice since taking over the starting job in 2006. One thing that is odd is his carries have gone from 312 to 260 to 240 to 229 last year, however he has seen his TD totals go from 9 to 6 to 8 to a career best 13 last year. I truly believe that San Fran has made the necessary upgrades to their OL with the draft picks coming in to help one of the best LT in the game in Joe Staley. You want MOP to go on a limb, OK I'm posting it now that barring injury that Frank Gore will post 20 TDs this season!!! San Fran will move the ball, their defense will set up short fields, and they play in an easy division with a fairly easy schedule. Gore is going to have several multiple TD games and he also is a great option to catch a lot of balls. He usually has at least 65 targets and has posted 50+ receptions 3 times in his career. Gore could easily be top2-3 this year and is no booby prize at the 5 spot in drafts. I would take him and not look back. 2010 should be a career year for Frank Gore.
Anthony Dixon is likely to lock down the RB2 spot and you can get him very very late in most drafts. I was unimpressed with Coffey last year when he filled in for Gore.
Ray Rice: I think Rice will be good again in an improved offense but there are now a lot of mouths to feed. You have Boldin and Stallworth to go with Mason and Heap in the passing game so the 1st thing I would predict is a decrease in receptions for this guy. 70? Try 40-50 and he'll be lucky to get all those. Too many options for Baltimore and Flacco's arm is too strong to not stretch the field more. The next obstacle for Rice IMO is the fact McGahee is still hanging around. Rice is not going to get all the rushing TDs but maybe he will get double digits there this year as Baltimore is going to have to score more points. Their secondary is riddled with injuries right now however they have a ferocious front 7 that will put a ton of pressure on the QB and help those DBs out so they don't have to hold their coverage as long. All FBG staff has Rice slated for 60-70+ receptions and I don't see it with everything they have added. Rice is still a great selection but owners are going to be disappointed when he doesn't produce quite like he did before. Also when Baltimore has the lead which they will going into the 4th in many games this year, look for McGahee to be in the thick of it running out the clock. What I'm saying is Rice is not a 1 man show.
For a guy that wasn't going to talk much about the top5 that sure seemed like a lot.
Rest of the 1st round…
Steven Jackson: Injury riddled history and plays on a lousy team. He is 6-2, 235 and he takes a tremendous amount of punishment as well as dishing it. This is year 7 for SJax and he likely is on the downside of his career despite being 27 years old. Rushing TD totals of 5, 7, and 4 the past 3 seasons. I remember when he caught 90 balls and people were penciling him in for 80 a year…Rice takers take note. The he drops to 38, then 40, then 50…I actually think he will be able to gather up more as the rookie will want to dump it quick at times so it would not surprise me if one of the things that saves SJax this season is a lot of balls tossed his way. Maybe 75 this year if he is healthy, there just are not a lot of viable options in the passing game. No one really behind him pushing for time either. I will not be drafting SJax but I understand owners who do take him.
Michael Turner: In non PPR leagues he is one of the best. He's capable of 1,500+ rush yds and 20 TDs, there really isn't much else you need to think about. Atlanta has some weapons around him, Matt Ryan in year 3, they upgraded the defense which should help set up a few short fields. He's a bellcow for this team and you could do a lot worse than taking Michael Turner as your RB1 at the end of the 1st. I think with Turner you are taking a safe reliable guy that you can build around.
2nd round…these RBs tend to go somewhere in the 2nd round. It should be noted that in PPR leagues I have seen almost no backs go in the 2nd as owners are tearing into the top 2 tiers of WRs and also the top 3-5 QBs tend to get looked at as well. This list is going to be short.
DeAngelo Williams: D Will baby! My question with him is going to be simple. How much do you really lose by not taking him and going with another RB in the 3rd, 4th, and even 5th round? Sure in the 2nd half of 2008 he exploded and in the middle of the season last year he was explosive again. But the reality is he shares time with Stewart…J Stew baby! And DeAngelo does not get a lot of targets in the passing game, almost always around 35-40 for the season which equates to less than 30 receptions. And that includes some of Delhomme's glory days. Throwing to the backs is not a big part of the Carolina offense. That said I think he is good for about 275 touches between carries and receptions which should be solid numbers for him but I don't see a return to 2008 unless Stewart were to go down injured again.
Rashard Mendenhall: I'm not going to talk about this kid's talent or no talent, simply let's look at the situation. QB is a liability the 1st 4 games of the season, it simply is. Going from Ben to Byron is like turning in a Cadillac for a Chevy, it's simply not the same. And Pittsburgh traded away Holmes who stretches the field so LBs and Safetys can now pinch up to stop the run. Did I mention they lost Willie Colon for the season to an already suspect OL? When has the last time a Pittsburgh RB taken high in the draft panned out and exceeded expectations? Some of that is coaching and some of that is how they are used. He had 25 receptions last year, maybe that total could go up some but I wouldn't project it much over 40. 7 rushing TDs last year, that could improve. My feeling is I want to see him do what he did for a stretch last year the entire season this year. And I'm willing to let that happen from a distance. Do you think Mendy will be a top5 RB next year and people will be climbing over each other to grab him over the likes of Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson? That is what you are hoping for thinking he will exceed expectations at this point in the draft. I like the WR choices around his ADP much better or even a sure fire QB like Rodgers or Brees if they are available.
Late 2nd thru the 3rd …Quite honestly I like many of the WR options at this point in the draft much better than these RBs that seem to go. A lot of the 2nd round in PPR formats will be WR heavy. I have drafted in many leagues where there are ZERO RBs selected in the 2nn round. The value tends to get pushed down but if you are in a RB heavy league where they dominate due to the scoring format then I will understand why you would want to reach out and grab someone in here.
Shonn Greene: I have seen him fall as far to the 4th round especially in PPR leagues where the best you can hope for is something like Michael Turner but to me that is a huge leap of faith. He's 6-0, 230 lbs and doesn't run low to the ground so to me he is an injury waiting to happen. He looked great in the 2 playoff games last year but low and behold he pulled up gimpy against the Colts in the 1st half of that football game IIRC. There are so many Jets fans in this world that he does tend to fly off the board. I had a chance to grab him on the 3 /4 turn recently and passed. I'm not sold on him and I think he will share duties more than folks want to realize. If New York can keep him somewhere between 15-18 carries a game he might hold up but they seem ready to try and cram 20-25 carries a game from this guy and that will not add up for him to stay healthy IMO. Great OL in front of him though so there is a % chance for him to finish with healthy stats at the end of the year…I just don't think it's anywhere near 80-90% which is what most folks seem to think who are drafting him.
Ryan Mathews: There are a lot of Ryan Mathews supporters. I am not a huge fan but I have started to warm up to him some because of a few factors. The first is his HC is known for producing very good RB stats and usually doesn't divide them up all over the place. He worked with Emmit Smith, several backs in Washington, then went to Miami and Oakland where he had success as well. The second big factor is that the passing game of San Diego might be limited, especially early on in the season. Malcolm Floyd is not scaring defenses I hate to break it to you. The last factor that makes me think Mathews could do well is a fairly soft schedule playing in the AFC West but I want to make it clear that I expect pushovers of years past like Oakland and Kansas City to be much improved. If you are looking for a RB in this area that is likely to touch the ball a lot, you could do worse than Ryan Mathews to get you started or to pair with one of the top RBs and form a very strong tandem in your backfield.
Ryan Grant: I don't have a lot to say about him. He produces points but I don't think there is anything special about him. And since you can draft Joseph Addai a round later who is similar as he plays in a high powered offense and always being kind of average, why make this pick on the 2/3 turn? I guess he could always get better but he just delivers a steady 12-15 points in PPR leagues most weeks. He is not a difference maker and since you can get so many WRs around here that are big difference makers, why not wait and take another RB later that will likely be within a point or two of Grant most weeks? I like his offense, like the players around him but he truly is average.
Jamaal Charles: 1st of all he is worth a lot more in best ball due to the perceived split he will have with Thomas Jones. I am a big Chiefs supporter this season and they play a fairly easy schedule, the middle and 2nd half of it especially are juiced with games where he could explode. I took him at 3.10 recently in a best ball league and could not be more excited about him. Despite him being 2nd on the depth charts, and maybe Thomas Jones does take the field to start most weeks, I still think Charles will get plenty of touches and produce at a very high level if last year was any indication of some of the speed this guy has. He racked up 650+ yds on the ground and 4 TDs over the last 4 weeks of the season. 12th on the year and he really didn't start until about week 10. I like his upside and think we have only seen the tip of the iceberg with Charles. His OL is going to be better, Weiss is running the show on offense now, look for Charles to have some very explosive weeks in 2010.
Cedric Benson: I don' think 2009 was a fluke. Cinci is getting better and even with Antonio Bryant ailing they still signed TO, drafted Gresham and Shipley, also signed Matt Jones, I like this offense and don't forget they get Andre Smith back at RT this year so look for a good solid OL to get even better. I speak of all this because it helps Cedric Benson not become the focal point of the offense and opposing defenses too. I don't see how he can face more than 6 or 7 in the box. Covering TO and Ocho is going to be rule #1 for most defenses. Benson should accidentally run for 1,300+ yds and at least 8-12 TDs in this offense this year. And that is really what he did last year so look at Benson as a possible poor man's Michael Turner. If you went WR/WR in the 1st/2nd at the latter part of the 1st round, don't hesitate in making Cedric Benson your RB1 in the 3rd if he falls down to you. Jeff Tefertiller grabbed him in an "experts" league that he is in at the 4.04, that seems like armed robbery to me.
Late 3rd to middle of the 4th…this is no man's land for most of these guys. I like the next group after this one much better. There is 1 back in this group I like and is hard to nail down for ADP.
Chris Wells: I want to like this guy but there are several reasons I am not high on him. First of all Arizona has downgraded from Warner to Leinart now at QB due to Warner retiring. You don't replace a HoF QB just like that. Next they let Anquan Boldin go for a swan in a trade with Baltimore. This reminds me of the old Arizona Cardinals. On defense they watched Dansby and Rolle leave for other teams. The Cards were anywhere form an 8-8 to a 10-6 type team with all the talent I just described and now even though they still have some talent and play in a softer division I can't see them winning more than 5 or 6 games. They certainly won't be closing a lot of them out with Wells battering teams in the 4th. I think they will need to score a lot of points and I can't see Wells in there on 3rd and 8 all the time. People are acting like he is going to get 320+ carries and I just don't see anything like that right now. Again this is a situation where I want to sit back and watch it unfold from the stands. You know what I'm saying? I'll watch him on someone else's roster and if he does well I am betting he can be had at about this spot next year, but I don't see him as 1st rounder in 2011. We'll get to THT in a little while.
LeSean McCoy: Again I am not impressed with this kid and I see him losing scoring opps to Mike Bell who has been sidelined but I am betting he is ready to roll when the season starts. McCoy is hard to decipher and I can't quite put my finger on it but I just get a bad vibe from him. I haven't seen him do much of anything that impresses me and there is a world of talent level difference between a healthy Westbrook when he was in his prime and where McCoy is at right now. And again I am going to hit on this point but I would rather watch McCoy develop this season on someone else's roster than become a 4th round turkey on mine. Then you add in a fairly tough schedule and a Ba-Roo-Tal playoff schedule with Dallas twice, the NYG, and Minnesota, no thank you. I'll take Mike Bell in the 18th round instead.
Jonathan Stewart: JStew!!! He and DWill make an expensive but deadly combo in best ball where you would never have to think about who to start. But a lot of people don't play in those type of leagues. I think Stewart is likely to drive some owners nuts. For where he is being drafted you almost need a DeAngelo injury for him to be at his max best. What you can find later in the draft won't be that much of a drop off and where you are at right now should still be prime picking for WRs. He had 1,100+ yds rushing and 10 TDs but when you lift the rug up you see he only had 3 startable games the 1st 12 weeks of the season…HELLO!!! Is this on? Then in 4 games out of the last 5 while DWill was nursing injuries he rips off 550 yds. Did I mention Stewart is still on the PUP list in training camp although he can come off it at anytime? Sounds like he can go back on it at anytime too. Lot of risk involved here and this area of the draft is a RB black hole as far I am concerned. Too many pot holes to feel comfortable.
Pierre Thomas: Everything points to him having a big season…except his history. He is only 25 but he hasn't carried the ball 150 times in a season yet. And I'm not sure New Orleans really wants to do that. They limit the amount of carries and spread everything around be it right or wrong. Thomas has showed some real flashes but he has yet to be consistent. Is 2010 the year? I hope it is but we have been drafting him around this spot for awhile and he hasn't moved up the ladder much. He is good for about 35-40 receptions, could probably post 8-10 TDs in this offense the way it moves up and down the field but we need to see a commitment to the ground game with 1 back and we haven't see that much since the days of Deuce. With Thomas you are swinging for the fences, I just don't like where you have to reach to get him. There still are safer options a little later in the draft and right about here you have a chance to lock up a top TE or QB which I would advise you to do. I think people see Thomas as a RB capable of 1,500 total yds and 12+ TDs, but we have yet to really see that and he shares the back field with another guy too.
Knowshon Moreno: He was going in the 3rd but now he is dropping and nursing injuries in camp. I had him as high as #8 on my board in the Spring. You want to like a guy that seems sure of 240 carries, 30-40 receptions, and about 6-9 TDs but those numbers are looking more and more as possible ceilings at best in 2010. Denver is a total mess right now on both sides of the ball and they have managed to run their best QB, WR and TE out of town along with a lot of others. The replacements are not inspiring right now. This was a 1st round pick and he needs to be given the opp to prove he was worth it. I don't think anyone saw that for sure last season. Again I do not see where you lose much by letting him go and choosing another back in a round or two. Moreno has been falling down my boards and I think justifiably so.
Late 4th and into the 5th…I like this group much better.
Joseph Addai: I'm going to simply say this…he's not flashy but he gets the job done. He does it about as well as Ryan Grant in the 2nd and he's a lot more proven than guys such as Wells, McCoy, and Thomas who all go before him because Addai is not flashy. He just creeps up on you and allows you to really venture out at other positions. It is always about where a guy fits on your roster. If you went WR heavy early then you need to scoop Addai up and stabilize your unit. He is a great addition if you took some riskier backs, he helps if you took a big stake early in one of the top QBs or maybe Gates which can cause you to be light at RB in round 5. Don't sweat Donald Brown yet. Sure Brown might get more touches this year but Addai is a steady presence in this offense and the OL hopefully plays better than last year although they are atrocious at run blocking. Addai is always a potential 40-50+ reception back too, you can't say that about everyone. Plus he knocks in TDs; that is what keeps him returning to the top10. Next year we can discuss Brown if Addai is still in Indy but for this year just enjoy the fact you have a top12 RB and didn't pay an arm and a leg to get him. Nothing wrong with reaching for him a tad in the 4th if you feel you are running out of RBs fast. I've seen Addai go as late as the early 6th.
Jahvid Best: I am a big fan of what Detroit is doing right now. I like Best and despite what I feel is a pretty tough schedule for a team that is 2-30 over their last 32 games, I actually think that could play an important role in what we can expect. First of all they upgraded the OL and they will play better as they will be together another season. I like the upgrades they made at WR and TE where they brought in both Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler. Stafford showed flashes last year and he should be ready to roll in year two. Even with the upgrades on defense the Lions are likely to be playing from behind and that bodes well for Best in terms of receptions. He will be on the field when they are in any passing situation. His back up Kevin Smith had a pretty bad injury last at the end of last year and I don't see him as a huge threat to Best developing quickly in the NFL. Taking Best as your RB2 in the early 5th to pair with guys like Chris Johnson, ADP, MJD, or Gore makes a very nice and explosive combo at RB. You probably won't start Best every week but he should be good for at least 8-10 solid games and you can find an RB3 to pair with him for when you are uncomfortable starting him.
Ronnie Brown: I'm gonna say it, if you like Steven Jackson and are willing to put up with the mantra of when he plays he's great then you probably like Ronnie Brown just as much in the 5th this year. When he plays and isn't injured he is a great option at RB2. So Ronnie is a poor man's Steven Jackson IMO. He is in the last year of his contract, signed his tender and will be looking to have a big year so he can get paid one more time. I do not believe the Miami Dolphins have any plans of keeping him in 2011 and honestly this will be the last time we see him and Ricky as the duo in the back field. I expect them both gone in 2011. Miami has a great run blocking OL with a lot of power inside and out, they are going to try and pound the football as much as possible. The addition of Marshall will help stretch the field but this is still a team that wants to run and not rely on Chad Henne to throw 35 balls a week. Brown is only as good as long as he is healthy and he doesn't finish seasons too often and when he has the numbers are not overpowering. In best ball he pairs well with Ricky and doesn't cost a lot but in must start leagues I would probably shy away. Miami has a brutal schedule with MN, NYJ, NE, GB, Pit, Cinci , and Balt all in the 1st 8 games, I'm not kidding. Buyer beware.
Felix Jones: He is a bigger tease than a burlesque dancer at the Playboy Mansion. I want to like this guy so much and he just flashes little glimpses. In best ball he is perfect and you can actually grab him and MBIII and probably be good to go. But understand that last year routinely in the RB thread neither of them were worth starting all the time. People complained about them constantly. The offense there is ready to roll but until Felix can stay on the field all the time I am not ready to pull the trigger on him before MB III. If you take him you like to gamble, that's not a bad thing but he is a roll of the dice.
Late 5th and into the 6th: There are a couple in here I really like for where they are being drafted but I have more in the next couple pods I like just as much.
Matt Forte: My first concern is that they went out and plunked down $7 million on Chester Taylor this season as fast as they could. We'll talk Chester in a little while but I am concerned that Forte will be in a split back field. Now Forte was a really nice find a couple year ago and then last season the wheels started to come off. Part of that is due to a heinous OL, sorry but they really have problems opening holes. The Orlando Pace signing was a total disaster and the Bears have now brought in Mike Martz. Forte caught something like 60+ when he was a rookie so he certainly has the ability to catch passes but I don't believe Martz sees him in the same light that many FF owners might see Forte. I am not overly optimistic about the Chicago Bears in fact I would say they are clearly 3rd best in the NFC North so we're talking 7-8 win probably. I know Chicago feels differently but Forte has a lot of questions coming into this season and I think his counterpart is an easier choice 4 rounds later. So while I like Forte I would rather have a WR like TO or someone around this area. Maybe a good time to start looking at TE.
Marion Barber the 3rd: The fact is he dropped like a sack of potatoes last year and was never the same with his thigh/quad the rest of the year. He has battled injuries and Felix Jones the past 2 seasons. If he had performed at a high level we would not be talking about grabbing him in the 6th round. Especially when you factor in the high octane offense, lots of chances to score, and when the team has a lead they will try and lean on him to close games out. The schedule is tough but Dallas is one of the top3-5 teams in the NFL in terms of talent, they really have the pieces to make a big run this year. I like MB III and I would take him to pair with any of the top backs you grabbed in the 1st 2-3 rounds. I see a good solid RB2 and if for some reason you can make him an RB3 in best ball you likely have at a minimum a strong flex guy to roll with every week. I like him.
Brandon Jacobs: I've seen him go a few places and usually he slips in drafts as team owners get cold feet and typically want to pass on him. He offers nothing in terms of receptions, and he has to share the load now with Bradshaw who most feel will be a bigger part of the offense. I am not too high on him and when you compare him to possibly taking a guy like Barber who we just discussed I wouldn't see Jacobs as any value. The Giants are trying to become a more vertical team to keep up with teams like Dallas, Philly, and New Orleans so the days of them running it down your throat are starting to fade. Bradshaw can get the job done if he is healthy and adds more dimension to the passing game. I probably pass on Jacobs. Do you really want to have to start this guy every week? That cannot be a recipe for success.
Reggie Bush: I like him in the 6th and think with the kicking of Kim to the curb that he will be 100% focused on his NFL career. He is going to want another contract at some point and weather it is in NO or somewhere else he is going to try hard to cash in. He is one of the few players that has won a National Championship and a Super Bowl…Jeremy Shockey also on the Saints can claim this feat too. Bush will catch plenty of balls and probably is a candidate for about 60-75 total yds a week, 2-4 catches, and maybe a TD every other week, this would not be that hard to reach in this offense. He's a perfect flex player and might be ready for a big year if Pierre Thomas cannot cut it. 1st time in awhile where you can get him without overpaying but there still are folks attracted to the name and sometimes try and scoop him up a bit early. I like him but don't stretch for him.
C.J.Spiller: Spiller is going as late as the 8th in some drafts. He is signed and in camp so I don't really understand the hesitation in grabbing a guy who was taken 9th overall in the draft. What does Buffalo have tied up in Freddie Jackson? Spiller can catch, is elusive, and the Bills' OL is not as bad as some would like to believe. I actually think they will surprise a few teams this year and Spiller is an excellent RB2 prospect and an even better RB3 if you like to load up at the position.
Let's talk about that for a minute. If you avoid RBs early and wait till the 4th or 5th to start grabbing them that's fine but you need to hammer away at them in the middle rounds so you have some versatility going into the season. So you go WR/WR in the 1st and 2nd, QB in the 3rd, then you better be ready to go something like Addai, Barber, and Spiller in the 4th-5th-6th so you have some punch at the position and won't lose a lot of ground every week. Or you might be able to go Benson(3rd) Best (5th) Barber (6th), then maybe RB again in the 7th or 8th. Just be ready to pounce when value appears.
7th round
Ben Tate: I listed him 1st because he sticks out like a sore thumb and in a bad way. You have no business taking him here. I really cannot justify taking him before perhaps the 9th or even the 10th/11th as part of a combo from Houston. This should not be your RB2 going into 2010. I have nothing against Houston or their fan base, in fact I am going to discuss Slaton and Foster in just a bit but I do not think you want to be hitching your wagon to Tate. He was in my opinion a very average back and will be part of a 3 header at best. I don't envision him walking in and just tearing it up week 1. He also has missed time with injuries and I will be looking for more camp reports but so far I have not seen anything overly positive on the guy. Way better choices around here both at RB and other positions. Don't be the guy taking Tate in round 7, just don't.
Justin Forsett: He has been an interesting guy to talk about this off season but when it comes down to it I'm not sure you want to make him more than perhaps your RB3 and if he exceeds expectations again than good for you. He does have capabilities to catch and run the football so he has diversity but the Seahawks did bring in Leon Washington who is pretty good at catching the ball and despite a terrible leg injury he will be on pace to take the field this year and I think he is going to be given the opp to play significant time. Certainly in the 7th you are not risking as much but I've seen Justin go in the 6th too and I think that might be a little high. Seattle has a rough OL right now, a defense in flux, a new HC that has a checkered past it seems…this is not looking all that strong for 2010. Seattle does play in a very soft division and will have some nice weeks so I can see Forsett perhaps being an all or nothing type on various weeks. Again I think you should try and build a better boat and allow this enigma to land on someone else's roster for this year. I like his talent but it would have to be the right team of players already selected before I would be comfortable with him as anything like my RB2.
And this brings me to another point. Some folks like to point to a player's end of year stats and say that he was #23 so he was an RB2 in 12 team leagues…that's not true. How many guys do you know or have experienced first hand yourself that had the #10 RB as their RB1 and the #22 RB as their RB2 and won the league? The goal is to actually try and find guys that will likely finish top5 as your RB1, and top10-12 as your RB2, that's how you win, that's how you play pocket KKs, does that make sense? You want a big advantage on the field of other owners, not a little advantage. So yeah certain players might hit #21 on the year and could be a nice story but the guys you want to win your league with are studs and beyond that are guys that get hot in the money weeks.
Jerome Harrison: I like this guy and think he's perfect as an RB3 or a guy you can have in best ball. Montario Hardesty does not impress me and he also has been hurt quite a bit already. Harrison looked great down the stretch last year and with Mangini on a short leash I doubt he overlooks Harrison again. Jerome is not the biggest of backs but he has some speed and he gives the Browns a fighting chance running the ball. Cleveland has a nice OL in patches especially the left side but they seem to fall short of owning teams in the running game where they should be able to dominate. I think they have a fairly tough schedule and play in a very competitive division but Harrison is going to have his moments and I even like him as an RB2 platoon with a couple other backs you can grab in the next few rounds especially if you load up early at other positions. I got him in the 8th round of a recent draft and I was comfortable with him and the risk involved at that point. 540 yds rushing and 5 TDs in the final 3 weeks last year; just cannot turn a blind eye to this if you are Cleveland.
Ricky Williams: He has been a great story the past couple years and he has told the Miami Dolphins and most people tuning in that 2010 will be his last season of professional football. In a best ball format to pair with Ronnie I like him plenty but as a single back in a league where you actually have to plug him in I am not as big a fan. I told you about the murderous schedule that Miami is facing this year, I would not want to take a big position on them especially early in the season. That schedule scares the heck out of me. It hasn't been a big factor with other teams and backs but c'mon you can be honest when you look over Miami's schedule. You would have thought they won the Super Bowl last year.
8th round
Ahmad Bradshaw: His ADP is rising and I think you would probably need to grab him in the 7th or perhaps the 6th if you really want him. I always am intrigued with this guy but the end result doesn't always justify his draft spot. He really only had 3 strong games last year and they came later in the season and 2 of them were in the money weeks which is why I think I think he gets a lot of attention. The fact is he only caught 21 balls last year and for a guy that had 50 his Senior year in college he really has not been a reception machine in NY. Part of me wishes him on another team. And no matter what we think of him he still is going to lose touches to a healthy Brandon Jacobs. People have high hopes for him last year but I don't see him cracking the top12, maybe the top20 if he gets lucky but there are not a lot of easy games in New York, hopefully they use him more in the passing game.
Fred Jackson: The Freddie love drives me nuts. I liked him in the preseason a couple years ago and I think he is a nice story but the reality is Buffalo brought in a high profile pick at this position. It is only a matter of time until it's the CJ Spiller show not to mention they invested another 1st round pick in Marshawn Lynch that they have to do something with. Lynch had 1,000 yd rushing seasons to start his career. Jackson at best is a bye week filler IMO.
And let's talk about something that doesn't sit well in FF but I am going to say it again. It's a handful of players that make all the difference. Fred Jackson was #15 last year in non PPR leagues and higher when you add in his 46 receptions yet he was completely nonstartable in weeks 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, 10, 12, and 16. A lot of weeks you wanted no part of him but based on his total year end numbers he was a solid RB2 right? Is the light bulb starting to come on? Do you understand why I get so irritable at times when people start talking nonsense? The fact is most of the guys we are talking about won't make much difference in redraft leagues.
"Cadillac": God love him for battling back from some terrible injuries. I watched him last year as I root for the Bucs and I have to say while it's a nice story, he simply doesn't have it anymore. If people are ready to throw dirt on LT, what can be exciting about Williams at this point? This is a very limited offense with rookie WRs that fill up much of the roster and Freeman is an interesting QB but I've never seen so many red zone turnovers in my life. He did have a handful of games where he was productive and hopefully another year removed from injury this guy can make another leap back to what we saw the 1st 4 weeks of his career. Tampa Bay IMO is a 3-5 win team at best and I doubt they are running the clock out very much. I don't see a ton of upside here but he likely will get the most touches in TB barring injury.
Clinton Portis: I like this pick better than the one we just discussed. Portis I think offers some upside in Shanny's offense. They have overhauled the OL and will continue to do so, they brought in a solid QB that hopefully will help them in the vertical passing game as well as accurately work the short game, and they are going to roll with a zone blocking scheme which Portis feasted on in Denver. Portis in 2010 is not Portis in 2003 however he should see plenty of action. There were rumors of Larry Johnson coming in and establishing himself as part of a platoon but quite honestly I haven't heard glowing reports of LJ since camp opened. In fact what I keep hearing is Parker may not make the team and LJ is there mostly because Shanny always had a crush on the guy when he faced off against him when he was in charge in Denver. Portis suffered down the stretch last year as did the entire Redskins Nation, you wouldn't blame Portis if he wasn't inspired by the great Jim Zorn. I don't think you can go wrong with Portis as your RB3 and he might really surprise some this year.
Michael Bush: He is taken anywhere from about the 8th to sometimes as late as the double digit rounds. Let's discuss the bad first in Oakland. The OL mainly will be the focus and it is pretty sorry right now although they have help on the way thru the 2010 draft where they selected a couple players to come in and help. It is a work in progress and I think this will be the most glaring weakness on a team that I feel should be much improved. Their defense is going to be fairly strong and maybe the offense will get some more short fields to work on this year. I see the team as competitive and that should mean they are in ball games and the running game should be a nice option in the 4th quarter. People are hyping Bush and why not? He has a 4.8 ypc from 2010 with a very challenged OL and bo QB to take any pressure off or stretch the field. That is about to change. He had 14/119 against Denver and 18/133/Td against KC last year, nothing wrong with doing well against the division. It's a small leap of faith that McFadden doesn't overtake him on the depth charts but there is room for both of them to have their moments and in best ball you can make a pair out of them and probably be fine. I like this 8th round and the value you can find throughout.
9th round
Darren McFadden: I just talked about Michael Bush. One thing I didn't mention was that Bush had 19 targets last year and caught 17 balls so despite being 250 lbs he also has decent hands. I bring that up because if McFadden doesn't get more involved in the passing game he is going to be worthless on your roster. He was targeted 36 times and only caught 21 balls last year which for a RB is not good. I understand the horrible QB play but still Bush was able to haul them in. He battled injuries last year but only posted a 3.4 ypc vs Bush who was 4.8 with the same OL. I don't think McFadden has gotten off to the start that many would have hoped for but this year is his make it or break it year and I think he will pair up well with Bush and show more flashed of what we saw in college. A lo of projections have him at 800+ total yds, 30-40 receptions and about 3-5 TDs…the thing is we just don't know what Oakland has because of the damage JaMarcus Russell has caused over the past 3 seasons. Hopefully Campbell stabilizes things enough so we have a better idea of what these guys can fully do.
Montario Hardesty: Not a fan and he has been battling injuries since he was drafted. I'm not going to go over the Cleveland ground game again but safe to say in 2010 that I like Harrison by a lot of Hardesty and I would probably ignore him at this point in the draft. There are too many other sure things to take apposition on this guy and I also wouldn't want both Cleveland RBs on my roster. I would rather have the 5-6 good games form Harrison and fill the spots up with other players. If you have followed Hardesty since college and think he's the next best thing by all means educate the rest of us but his situation in 2010 IMO is somewhat bleak unless Harrison is sidelined for long periods of time and even then I am not real confident in him.
Thomas Jones: I have been scooping him up in the 10th round and later. Mostly as insurance with Jamaal Charles but Jones is coming off 6 seasons of 948, 1,335, 1,210, 1,119, 1312, and 1,402…folks his numbers have actually increased in total yds rushing the last 2-3 seasons. Three of the last five years he has been top 10 including 5th and 6th the past two years. You cannot ignore him completely although at 32 in a couple weeks and wearing down like he did towards the end of last year he probably should have his load lightened to around 200-225 carries and I think that is what Kansas City is going to do. It will not surprise me if they use him in short yardage situations although people have pointed out that he is one of the worst in that spot…we'll see what Weiss and Haley have planned for him but they signed him for a reason. At this point you know I am a KC fan this year with the schedule and new asst coaches they have brought in, safe to say I see Jones as a real bargain down here.
LaDainian Tomlinson: I cannot think of a better team for him to land with than the NY Jets. HE has a great OL in front of him, likely will not have to carry the ball more than about 12-15 times a game, and he will continue to score TDs as he is typically a scoring machine and has been for most of his career. He also is a great pass catching RB and will fill that role nicely on the team. Look for him to be in on all 3rd down situations and he is typically a great pass protector as well. All this leads to him IMO outplaying this position by a good margin. In the 9th and 10th rounds he is a steal. You are likely nabbing a top20 RB much later in the draft and he makes an excellent RB3 on your roster. You are not investing a lot here so take him and run. I have scooped him up whenever I can but his ADP is starting to creep up I believe.
10th Round
Donald Brown: I don't always approve of handcuffing but locking up the Colts for a 4th and a 10th is not a bad deal. Brown has to improve his pass blocking skills and specifically picking up the blitz. The team is built around Peyton Manning and that isn't going to change anytime soon. I wasn't overly impressed with Brown and will be interested to see what Indy does with him if and when Addai leaves after this year. At this point he is probably going to get perhaps a third of the carries at best. Still you would love to have him if Addai pulls up with an injury. He's worth a roster spot if you have Addai.
And this brings me to another point. Just like in the NFL you need to think about the cohesion of your own team. If you drafted Shonn Greene, then took Reggie Bush as your RB2, what are you doing grabbing Donald Brown as your RB3??? You are never going to start him unless he overtakes Addai so why roster someone that you never want to start. A wise staff member taught me to never roster a guy that you would not want to start if you had to…so be careful who you take in all positions on your team. Waiver wire fodder is not what you want. Instead you want to build a team of as many starters as possible so you have more choices and can feel good about moving guys into your starting line up. Back to the show…
Darren Sproles: I have taken this guy in the 12th round in some drafts. Seems to be a forgotten man but he sure didn't do much last year after he received a large lump sum form the Chargers. I can't ever see him carrying the ball 20 times a game but he can be effective and his receiving skills are going to be needed for a team that has some challenges with Vincent Jackson being suspended and also holding out. Sproles should see a lot of action as I don't see Ryan Mathews being a great receiving back coming out of college. That might change but for now Sproles knows the system and can make an impact in the short passing game. He had 900 total yds, 7TDs, and 45 receptions. If you could find that from a WR around here you would be doing back flips so I think he can be an effective flex player and that is how I would draft him. Part of a platoon as an RB2 in best ball if you feel like you are getting cornered, there's a place for this guy and rookies tend to wear down as the season progresses so look for Sproles to put together of decent games this season. For his draft spot you could do worse.
Tim Hightower: 1,000 total yds, 8TDs, and 63 receptions…why is Beanie Wells going in the 3rd exactly? TJT is not pretty always but I cannot imagine that he is totally pushed aside either. His ypc came up a good yard and a half last season and he brings a lot to the passing game for them. Granted Warner is gone but if you think Hightower is going to fade away in the passing game then how can you have any confidence taking Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of the 1st round? Can you understand that at least some? If Leinart is having problems I would think some short dump off passes are just what the Whisenhunt ordered. I think Hightower is a decent flex player on a best ball team. He is in the same range as a Sproles and folks overlook him all the time.
Chester Taylor: Guy is intriguing to say the least. Chicago wasted no time in signing him to $7 million guaranteed this year and they bring in Mike Martz who likes to throw the ball a lot. I love Taylor as an RB3 and think he has a chance to be the main event in Chicago. Maybe not getting 15+ carries a game but I envision somewhere in the 60 yd per week avg, good amount of receptions, TDs are a guess but 6-7 would be reasonable for him. Chicago is going to struggle to find any consistency form their WRs and I expect Martz to turn to the backs more and work the underneath routes more. Again as part of a platoon at RB2/3 in best ball I think he is fine. Good value at this point in the draft.
11th and 12th round
Laurence Maroney: Guy continues to be a mystery but he was doing well while the other backs were ailing last season. If he starts he probably is good for about 750-800 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs, not much of a threat in the passing game. It's not the end of the world if you don't grab this guy and stop building a scenario in your head where this guy explodes for 1,200 and 10 TDs, isn't going to happen although he was inching closer last year. I think he needs out of New England.
Steve Slaton: Had a nasty injury to his neck. You can look around the internet and see the screw/bolt whatever they used to put his neck back together. I'm leery of him but I would feel better about getting him around this spot and maybe even drafting the guy to pair with him that I will discuss next.
Arian Foster: I like Foster and all reports are that he is winning the camp battle to this point. That could change during the preseason games, I would make an effort to watch this guy and see if he is special. MY guess is the RB spot is fluid in Houston and that Kubiak may simply go with the hot hand but even that being the case, I still like the Slaton/Foster leg of this over Tate in the 7th round which is ridiculous to me. Foster has good sixe and was starting to emerge towards the end of last year. I would definitely keep an eye on him because if he looks good you might land a starting RB here in the 12th as your RB4 that you can actually get some mileage out of.
Willis McGahee: He is an absolute must handcuff for those that took Ray Rice. If Rice were to go down with an injury, suddenly McGahee would be a viable option and maybe even a top10-12 back in that offense. He already is stealing TDs from Rice but I actually look for him to be in the thick of it when the Ravens have a lead and are trying to run the clock down. He's a nice grab at this point in the draft and costs you so very little.
13th and beyond…anytime at this point you can feel free to grab whoever you want, folks look at ADP here but I tend to just grab a player I like with some upside.
Leon Washington: If he is recovered from his injury he stands just as good a chance as any to get the most points on Seattle for owners this year. Forsett owners don't want to hear this but I think he has some nice skills and they are going to use him if he recovers form that terrible leg injury. Again you are not investing much here so if he takes the field at all in preseason I would think about scooping him up.
CBuckhalter: Injured right now, when is he not? I'm just not a fan of Denver this year and to me there are better options on the board.
Larry Johnson: I talked about him a little bit in the Portis write up. I was higher on him when he was signed in the Spring, now I am lukewarm at best.
Mike Bell: I am not sold on McCoy and think Bell was brought in for the tough yards and also around the goal line too. He could be a decent RB4 or even RB5. I have seen him go as late as the 20th round in some drafts. No one likes him.
Tashard Choice: If you have Barber you should really grab this guy and stash him on your roster. Not flashy but he has proven when they call on his number that he is ready to roll.
Brian Westbrook: Not on a roster right now and his candle burns out more and more every day he is not in a camp. I don't think he wants to face the reality that only teams that are going nowhere are interested in signing him right now. Rumors are out there that Philly would take him back if he doesn't land somewhere else, we'll see.
Marshawn Lynch: You draft him if you think Buffalo can move him. Right now his trade value is in the tank but I don't see it coming up if he is relegated to RB3 behind Spiller and Jackson.
Very Late to undrafted
Jerious Norwood: When Turner was down so was Norwood. They could have let him walk but they tendered him anyways. I like him to be part of the offense more. Certainly he should see action on 3rd downs and might surprise a few folks. He has explosiveness in his game and he could be a huge sleeper this year. As an RB5 or later I like his upside despite Turner having a monster grip on the position.
James Starks: RB in Green Bay that was drafted this past Spring. Just keep an eye on him as he could end up on the field in a very potent offense so we like those type of guys with some upside very late in drafts.
So let's land the plane and try to bring some of this together. Understand how important it is to bring groups of players together. If you have MJD as your RB1, you can get more frisky with your RB2 or RB3 and take more chances. If you come out of the box with Shonn Greene who is somewhat of an unknown for the entire season or Chris Wells, you probably do not want to grab Justin Forsett as your RB2, that's simply too much unnecessary risk involved. A roster of all huge upside guys can blow up in your face so you want to layer your roster with guys that can be steady and also a couple guys that have some upside. I'm not saying you can't draft those RBs I just went over but if you do it would be beneficial to grab a couple of other RBs that are a little more steady so you can lock down studs at other positions. Remember that all players on your roster must serve a purpose. Don't draft players that you would never want to start, that's a recipe for disaster.
I look forward to reading your thoughts and opinions. Let's be open minded and allow folks the opp to speak their minds, explain their positions and why they want to choose certain players. I hope this thread can be a working lab. Go and dominate your leagues folks!
Thank you,
Sean aka MOP
I have to say that I have become very slanted towards best ball. In the 8-12 leagues that I will compete in including FBG sponsored events the majority of those leagues are best ball. In fact there is only 1 league I can think of where I have to fill out a roster on Sundays and even in that one I own Chris Johnson and Michael Turner so the reality is I won't be thinking much about who I have to start. I do not say these things to try and impress you but rather to impress upon you the point of view from which I am coming from. With that in mind I decided to use the ADP format that FBG provides in the DD…sorry but I like abbreviations.
Whenever possible I will try to point out other positions that might be a better idea than going RB at certain points in the draft. These are all my opinions mind you, please don't get offended if I am not giving a glowing report on ¾ of your dynasty RB stable. I am only speaking about redraft in 2010. It's definitely not personal. If you like a player that I don't let's discuss it. Sometimes I am off and I admit that. The purpose of this thread is to spark discussion and allow us time to collect our thoughts and finalize strategy before the upcoming redrafts we take part in.
You are going to notice that I don't project out very often for the players. I find them a waste of time and they also psychologically tend to marry you to some players. I do look at schedules but not much deeper than the NFC West and the AFC West have cake walks for the most part. Also I am not ranking these in any particular order, just going thru them according to where they are being drafted, hope that makes sense for you.
Want to get to the main event? Me too, let's roll.
High 1st round…Doesn't matter what most say, these 5 guys are going to be grabbed early so if you don't have a top5 pick don't waste much time looking them over.
Chris Johnson: Very simple. He showed us stuff we haven't seen since Barry Sanders left Detroit. I'm not claiming they are the same RB but the excitement that this guy brought was like something we have not seen in awhile. Sure LT is and was sensational but Chris Johnson simply hits for distance. To not take him at #1 is probably over thinking it.
Throughout this I will try and talk about the back up and what they bring to the table. Some people may not know much about Javon Ringer but this guy managed to carry the ball well North of 300 times when he was playing in the Big 10 as a Senior. I do think Tennessee will lighten the load up some for Johnson and that might actually give us a chance to see what this kid is capable of. He was buried on the charts but is now an injury away from seeing real action. The preseason may give us a glimpse of Ringer as well. Many in the FF community like him but we all know that he is zero threat to Chris Johnson.
Adrian Peterson: I don't care if he fumbles the ball 20 times he is not going to be sat down anytime soon. It seemed like he had his best game in Cleveland week 1 last year. That's not really true but those stiff arms he put on the Browns reminded us all of another Brown from generations past and that's of course Jim Brown. The offensive line (OL) is not what many think. Some of it doesn't seem to be working in both run blocking and pass protecting. But the fact is ADP has been top 3 all three years he has been in the league, one of the safest picks you can make.
Toby Gerhart is the new back up as Chester Taylor who we'll discuss later has left for Chicago. Gerhart will see the field but probably sparingly. Peterson is a shoe in for 320+ carries and a good amount of receptions, probably at least 350+ touches so Gerhart is really just a simple hand cuff. The offense would go way down if he had to see the field due to injury to ADP.
Maurice Jones Drew: 8th, 13th, 9th, then 3rd last year. 115 receptions the past 2 years in an offense that doesn't have s great set of WRs, doesn't have a stud TE, he'll continue to see 350+ touches and 15, 9, 14, and 16 for Td totals the past 4 years, he is a bonafide stud. I was very late to the train on him but there is no reason to come up with doubts about him. I wouldn't even really look over the schedule much, he's simply unstoppable and sooner or later he is going to get his. No competition to deal with and really I wouldn't waste roster space on a handcuff for him because the Jags would fall apart without him.
Frank Gore: 4th, 9th, 14th, then 5th last year. Top5 twice since taking over the starting job in 2006. One thing that is odd is his carries have gone from 312 to 260 to 240 to 229 last year, however he has seen his TD totals go from 9 to 6 to 8 to a career best 13 last year. I truly believe that San Fran has made the necessary upgrades to their OL with the draft picks coming in to help one of the best LT in the game in Joe Staley. You want MOP to go on a limb, OK I'm posting it now that barring injury that Frank Gore will post 20 TDs this season!!! San Fran will move the ball, their defense will set up short fields, and they play in an easy division with a fairly easy schedule. Gore is going to have several multiple TD games and he also is a great option to catch a lot of balls. He usually has at least 65 targets and has posted 50+ receptions 3 times in his career. Gore could easily be top2-3 this year and is no booby prize at the 5 spot in drafts. I would take him and not look back. 2010 should be a career year for Frank Gore.
Anthony Dixon is likely to lock down the RB2 spot and you can get him very very late in most drafts. I was unimpressed with Coffey last year when he filled in for Gore.
Ray Rice: I think Rice will be good again in an improved offense but there are now a lot of mouths to feed. You have Boldin and Stallworth to go with Mason and Heap in the passing game so the 1st thing I would predict is a decrease in receptions for this guy. 70? Try 40-50 and he'll be lucky to get all those. Too many options for Baltimore and Flacco's arm is too strong to not stretch the field more. The next obstacle for Rice IMO is the fact McGahee is still hanging around. Rice is not going to get all the rushing TDs but maybe he will get double digits there this year as Baltimore is going to have to score more points. Their secondary is riddled with injuries right now however they have a ferocious front 7 that will put a ton of pressure on the QB and help those DBs out so they don't have to hold their coverage as long. All FBG staff has Rice slated for 60-70+ receptions and I don't see it with everything they have added. Rice is still a great selection but owners are going to be disappointed when he doesn't produce quite like he did before. Also when Baltimore has the lead which they will going into the 4th in many games this year, look for McGahee to be in the thick of it running out the clock. What I'm saying is Rice is not a 1 man show.
For a guy that wasn't going to talk much about the top5 that sure seemed like a lot.
Rest of the 1st round…
Steven Jackson: Injury riddled history and plays on a lousy team. He is 6-2, 235 and he takes a tremendous amount of punishment as well as dishing it. This is year 7 for SJax and he likely is on the downside of his career despite being 27 years old. Rushing TD totals of 5, 7, and 4 the past 3 seasons. I remember when he caught 90 balls and people were penciling him in for 80 a year…Rice takers take note. The he drops to 38, then 40, then 50…I actually think he will be able to gather up more as the rookie will want to dump it quick at times so it would not surprise me if one of the things that saves SJax this season is a lot of balls tossed his way. Maybe 75 this year if he is healthy, there just are not a lot of viable options in the passing game. No one really behind him pushing for time either. I will not be drafting SJax but I understand owners who do take him.
Michael Turner: In non PPR leagues he is one of the best. He's capable of 1,500+ rush yds and 20 TDs, there really isn't much else you need to think about. Atlanta has some weapons around him, Matt Ryan in year 3, they upgraded the defense which should help set up a few short fields. He's a bellcow for this team and you could do a lot worse than taking Michael Turner as your RB1 at the end of the 1st. I think with Turner you are taking a safe reliable guy that you can build around.
2nd round…these RBs tend to go somewhere in the 2nd round. It should be noted that in PPR leagues I have seen almost no backs go in the 2nd as owners are tearing into the top 2 tiers of WRs and also the top 3-5 QBs tend to get looked at as well. This list is going to be short.
DeAngelo Williams: D Will baby! My question with him is going to be simple. How much do you really lose by not taking him and going with another RB in the 3rd, 4th, and even 5th round? Sure in the 2nd half of 2008 he exploded and in the middle of the season last year he was explosive again. But the reality is he shares time with Stewart…J Stew baby! And DeAngelo does not get a lot of targets in the passing game, almost always around 35-40 for the season which equates to less than 30 receptions. And that includes some of Delhomme's glory days. Throwing to the backs is not a big part of the Carolina offense. That said I think he is good for about 275 touches between carries and receptions which should be solid numbers for him but I don't see a return to 2008 unless Stewart were to go down injured again.
Rashard Mendenhall: I'm not going to talk about this kid's talent or no talent, simply let's look at the situation. QB is a liability the 1st 4 games of the season, it simply is. Going from Ben to Byron is like turning in a Cadillac for a Chevy, it's simply not the same. And Pittsburgh traded away Holmes who stretches the field so LBs and Safetys can now pinch up to stop the run. Did I mention they lost Willie Colon for the season to an already suspect OL? When has the last time a Pittsburgh RB taken high in the draft panned out and exceeded expectations? Some of that is coaching and some of that is how they are used. He had 25 receptions last year, maybe that total could go up some but I wouldn't project it much over 40. 7 rushing TDs last year, that could improve. My feeling is I want to see him do what he did for a stretch last year the entire season this year. And I'm willing to let that happen from a distance. Do you think Mendy will be a top5 RB next year and people will be climbing over each other to grab him over the likes of Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson? That is what you are hoping for thinking he will exceed expectations at this point in the draft. I like the WR choices around his ADP much better or even a sure fire QB like Rodgers or Brees if they are available.
Late 2nd thru the 3rd …Quite honestly I like many of the WR options at this point in the draft much better than these RBs that seem to go. A lot of the 2nd round in PPR formats will be WR heavy. I have drafted in many leagues where there are ZERO RBs selected in the 2nn round. The value tends to get pushed down but if you are in a RB heavy league where they dominate due to the scoring format then I will understand why you would want to reach out and grab someone in here.
Shonn Greene: I have seen him fall as far to the 4th round especially in PPR leagues where the best you can hope for is something like Michael Turner but to me that is a huge leap of faith. He's 6-0, 230 lbs and doesn't run low to the ground so to me he is an injury waiting to happen. He looked great in the 2 playoff games last year but low and behold he pulled up gimpy against the Colts in the 1st half of that football game IIRC. There are so many Jets fans in this world that he does tend to fly off the board. I had a chance to grab him on the 3 /4 turn recently and passed. I'm not sold on him and I think he will share duties more than folks want to realize. If New York can keep him somewhere between 15-18 carries a game he might hold up but they seem ready to try and cram 20-25 carries a game from this guy and that will not add up for him to stay healthy IMO. Great OL in front of him though so there is a % chance for him to finish with healthy stats at the end of the year…I just don't think it's anywhere near 80-90% which is what most folks seem to think who are drafting him.
Ryan Mathews: There are a lot of Ryan Mathews supporters. I am not a huge fan but I have started to warm up to him some because of a few factors. The first is his HC is known for producing very good RB stats and usually doesn't divide them up all over the place. He worked with Emmit Smith, several backs in Washington, then went to Miami and Oakland where he had success as well. The second big factor is that the passing game of San Diego might be limited, especially early on in the season. Malcolm Floyd is not scaring defenses I hate to break it to you. The last factor that makes me think Mathews could do well is a fairly soft schedule playing in the AFC West but I want to make it clear that I expect pushovers of years past like Oakland and Kansas City to be much improved. If you are looking for a RB in this area that is likely to touch the ball a lot, you could do worse than Ryan Mathews to get you started or to pair with one of the top RBs and form a very strong tandem in your backfield.
Ryan Grant: I don't have a lot to say about him. He produces points but I don't think there is anything special about him. And since you can draft Joseph Addai a round later who is similar as he plays in a high powered offense and always being kind of average, why make this pick on the 2/3 turn? I guess he could always get better but he just delivers a steady 12-15 points in PPR leagues most weeks. He is not a difference maker and since you can get so many WRs around here that are big difference makers, why not wait and take another RB later that will likely be within a point or two of Grant most weeks? I like his offense, like the players around him but he truly is average.
Jamaal Charles: 1st of all he is worth a lot more in best ball due to the perceived split he will have with Thomas Jones. I am a big Chiefs supporter this season and they play a fairly easy schedule, the middle and 2nd half of it especially are juiced with games where he could explode. I took him at 3.10 recently in a best ball league and could not be more excited about him. Despite him being 2nd on the depth charts, and maybe Thomas Jones does take the field to start most weeks, I still think Charles will get plenty of touches and produce at a very high level if last year was any indication of some of the speed this guy has. He racked up 650+ yds on the ground and 4 TDs over the last 4 weeks of the season. 12th on the year and he really didn't start until about week 10. I like his upside and think we have only seen the tip of the iceberg with Charles. His OL is going to be better, Weiss is running the show on offense now, look for Charles to have some very explosive weeks in 2010.
Cedric Benson: I don' think 2009 was a fluke. Cinci is getting better and even with Antonio Bryant ailing they still signed TO, drafted Gresham and Shipley, also signed Matt Jones, I like this offense and don't forget they get Andre Smith back at RT this year so look for a good solid OL to get even better. I speak of all this because it helps Cedric Benson not become the focal point of the offense and opposing defenses too. I don't see how he can face more than 6 or 7 in the box. Covering TO and Ocho is going to be rule #1 for most defenses. Benson should accidentally run for 1,300+ yds and at least 8-12 TDs in this offense this year. And that is really what he did last year so look at Benson as a possible poor man's Michael Turner. If you went WR/WR in the 1st/2nd at the latter part of the 1st round, don't hesitate in making Cedric Benson your RB1 in the 3rd if he falls down to you. Jeff Tefertiller grabbed him in an "experts" league that he is in at the 4.04, that seems like armed robbery to me.
Late 3rd to middle of the 4th…this is no man's land for most of these guys. I like the next group after this one much better. There is 1 back in this group I like and is hard to nail down for ADP.
Chris Wells: I want to like this guy but there are several reasons I am not high on him. First of all Arizona has downgraded from Warner to Leinart now at QB due to Warner retiring. You don't replace a HoF QB just like that. Next they let Anquan Boldin go for a swan in a trade with Baltimore. This reminds me of the old Arizona Cardinals. On defense they watched Dansby and Rolle leave for other teams. The Cards were anywhere form an 8-8 to a 10-6 type team with all the talent I just described and now even though they still have some talent and play in a softer division I can't see them winning more than 5 or 6 games. They certainly won't be closing a lot of them out with Wells battering teams in the 4th. I think they will need to score a lot of points and I can't see Wells in there on 3rd and 8 all the time. People are acting like he is going to get 320+ carries and I just don't see anything like that right now. Again this is a situation where I want to sit back and watch it unfold from the stands. You know what I'm saying? I'll watch him on someone else's roster and if he does well I am betting he can be had at about this spot next year, but I don't see him as 1st rounder in 2011. We'll get to THT in a little while.
LeSean McCoy: Again I am not impressed with this kid and I see him losing scoring opps to Mike Bell who has been sidelined but I am betting he is ready to roll when the season starts. McCoy is hard to decipher and I can't quite put my finger on it but I just get a bad vibe from him. I haven't seen him do much of anything that impresses me and there is a world of talent level difference between a healthy Westbrook when he was in his prime and where McCoy is at right now. And again I am going to hit on this point but I would rather watch McCoy develop this season on someone else's roster than become a 4th round turkey on mine. Then you add in a fairly tough schedule and a Ba-Roo-Tal playoff schedule with Dallas twice, the NYG, and Minnesota, no thank you. I'll take Mike Bell in the 18th round instead.
Jonathan Stewart: JStew!!! He and DWill make an expensive but deadly combo in best ball where you would never have to think about who to start. But a lot of people don't play in those type of leagues. I think Stewart is likely to drive some owners nuts. For where he is being drafted you almost need a DeAngelo injury for him to be at his max best. What you can find later in the draft won't be that much of a drop off and where you are at right now should still be prime picking for WRs. He had 1,100+ yds rushing and 10 TDs but when you lift the rug up you see he only had 3 startable games the 1st 12 weeks of the season…HELLO!!! Is this on? Then in 4 games out of the last 5 while DWill was nursing injuries he rips off 550 yds. Did I mention Stewart is still on the PUP list in training camp although he can come off it at anytime? Sounds like he can go back on it at anytime too. Lot of risk involved here and this area of the draft is a RB black hole as far I am concerned. Too many pot holes to feel comfortable.
Pierre Thomas: Everything points to him having a big season…except his history. He is only 25 but he hasn't carried the ball 150 times in a season yet. And I'm not sure New Orleans really wants to do that. They limit the amount of carries and spread everything around be it right or wrong. Thomas has showed some real flashes but he has yet to be consistent. Is 2010 the year? I hope it is but we have been drafting him around this spot for awhile and he hasn't moved up the ladder much. He is good for about 35-40 receptions, could probably post 8-10 TDs in this offense the way it moves up and down the field but we need to see a commitment to the ground game with 1 back and we haven't see that much since the days of Deuce. With Thomas you are swinging for the fences, I just don't like where you have to reach to get him. There still are safer options a little later in the draft and right about here you have a chance to lock up a top TE or QB which I would advise you to do. I think people see Thomas as a RB capable of 1,500 total yds and 12+ TDs, but we have yet to really see that and he shares the back field with another guy too.
Knowshon Moreno: He was going in the 3rd but now he is dropping and nursing injuries in camp. I had him as high as #8 on my board in the Spring. You want to like a guy that seems sure of 240 carries, 30-40 receptions, and about 6-9 TDs but those numbers are looking more and more as possible ceilings at best in 2010. Denver is a total mess right now on both sides of the ball and they have managed to run their best QB, WR and TE out of town along with a lot of others. The replacements are not inspiring right now. This was a 1st round pick and he needs to be given the opp to prove he was worth it. I don't think anyone saw that for sure last season. Again I do not see where you lose much by letting him go and choosing another back in a round or two. Moreno has been falling down my boards and I think justifiably so.
Late 4th and into the 5th…I like this group much better.
Joseph Addai: I'm going to simply say this…he's not flashy but he gets the job done. He does it about as well as Ryan Grant in the 2nd and he's a lot more proven than guys such as Wells, McCoy, and Thomas who all go before him because Addai is not flashy. He just creeps up on you and allows you to really venture out at other positions. It is always about where a guy fits on your roster. If you went WR heavy early then you need to scoop Addai up and stabilize your unit. He is a great addition if you took some riskier backs, he helps if you took a big stake early in one of the top QBs or maybe Gates which can cause you to be light at RB in round 5. Don't sweat Donald Brown yet. Sure Brown might get more touches this year but Addai is a steady presence in this offense and the OL hopefully plays better than last year although they are atrocious at run blocking. Addai is always a potential 40-50+ reception back too, you can't say that about everyone. Plus he knocks in TDs; that is what keeps him returning to the top10. Next year we can discuss Brown if Addai is still in Indy but for this year just enjoy the fact you have a top12 RB and didn't pay an arm and a leg to get him. Nothing wrong with reaching for him a tad in the 4th if you feel you are running out of RBs fast. I've seen Addai go as late as the early 6th.
Jahvid Best: I am a big fan of what Detroit is doing right now. I like Best and despite what I feel is a pretty tough schedule for a team that is 2-30 over their last 32 games, I actually think that could play an important role in what we can expect. First of all they upgraded the OL and they will play better as they will be together another season. I like the upgrades they made at WR and TE where they brought in both Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler. Stafford showed flashes last year and he should be ready to roll in year two. Even with the upgrades on defense the Lions are likely to be playing from behind and that bodes well for Best in terms of receptions. He will be on the field when they are in any passing situation. His back up Kevin Smith had a pretty bad injury last at the end of last year and I don't see him as a huge threat to Best developing quickly in the NFL. Taking Best as your RB2 in the early 5th to pair with guys like Chris Johnson, ADP, MJD, or Gore makes a very nice and explosive combo at RB. You probably won't start Best every week but he should be good for at least 8-10 solid games and you can find an RB3 to pair with him for when you are uncomfortable starting him.
Ronnie Brown: I'm gonna say it, if you like Steven Jackson and are willing to put up with the mantra of when he plays he's great then you probably like Ronnie Brown just as much in the 5th this year. When he plays and isn't injured he is a great option at RB2. So Ronnie is a poor man's Steven Jackson IMO. He is in the last year of his contract, signed his tender and will be looking to have a big year so he can get paid one more time. I do not believe the Miami Dolphins have any plans of keeping him in 2011 and honestly this will be the last time we see him and Ricky as the duo in the back field. I expect them both gone in 2011. Miami has a great run blocking OL with a lot of power inside and out, they are going to try and pound the football as much as possible. The addition of Marshall will help stretch the field but this is still a team that wants to run and not rely on Chad Henne to throw 35 balls a week. Brown is only as good as long as he is healthy and he doesn't finish seasons too often and when he has the numbers are not overpowering. In best ball he pairs well with Ricky and doesn't cost a lot but in must start leagues I would probably shy away. Miami has a brutal schedule with MN, NYJ, NE, GB, Pit, Cinci , and Balt all in the 1st 8 games, I'm not kidding. Buyer beware.
Felix Jones: He is a bigger tease than a burlesque dancer at the Playboy Mansion. I want to like this guy so much and he just flashes little glimpses. In best ball he is perfect and you can actually grab him and MBIII and probably be good to go. But understand that last year routinely in the RB thread neither of them were worth starting all the time. People complained about them constantly. The offense there is ready to roll but until Felix can stay on the field all the time I am not ready to pull the trigger on him before MB III. If you take him you like to gamble, that's not a bad thing but he is a roll of the dice.
Late 5th and into the 6th: There are a couple in here I really like for where they are being drafted but I have more in the next couple pods I like just as much.
Matt Forte: My first concern is that they went out and plunked down $7 million on Chester Taylor this season as fast as they could. We'll talk Chester in a little while but I am concerned that Forte will be in a split back field. Now Forte was a really nice find a couple year ago and then last season the wheels started to come off. Part of that is due to a heinous OL, sorry but they really have problems opening holes. The Orlando Pace signing was a total disaster and the Bears have now brought in Mike Martz. Forte caught something like 60+ when he was a rookie so he certainly has the ability to catch passes but I don't believe Martz sees him in the same light that many FF owners might see Forte. I am not overly optimistic about the Chicago Bears in fact I would say they are clearly 3rd best in the NFC North so we're talking 7-8 win probably. I know Chicago feels differently but Forte has a lot of questions coming into this season and I think his counterpart is an easier choice 4 rounds later. So while I like Forte I would rather have a WR like TO or someone around this area. Maybe a good time to start looking at TE.
Marion Barber the 3rd: The fact is he dropped like a sack of potatoes last year and was never the same with his thigh/quad the rest of the year. He has battled injuries and Felix Jones the past 2 seasons. If he had performed at a high level we would not be talking about grabbing him in the 6th round. Especially when you factor in the high octane offense, lots of chances to score, and when the team has a lead they will try and lean on him to close games out. The schedule is tough but Dallas is one of the top3-5 teams in the NFL in terms of talent, they really have the pieces to make a big run this year. I like MB III and I would take him to pair with any of the top backs you grabbed in the 1st 2-3 rounds. I see a good solid RB2 and if for some reason you can make him an RB3 in best ball you likely have at a minimum a strong flex guy to roll with every week. I like him.
Brandon Jacobs: I've seen him go a few places and usually he slips in drafts as team owners get cold feet and typically want to pass on him. He offers nothing in terms of receptions, and he has to share the load now with Bradshaw who most feel will be a bigger part of the offense. I am not too high on him and when you compare him to possibly taking a guy like Barber who we just discussed I wouldn't see Jacobs as any value. The Giants are trying to become a more vertical team to keep up with teams like Dallas, Philly, and New Orleans so the days of them running it down your throat are starting to fade. Bradshaw can get the job done if he is healthy and adds more dimension to the passing game. I probably pass on Jacobs. Do you really want to have to start this guy every week? That cannot be a recipe for success.
Reggie Bush: I like him in the 6th and think with the kicking of Kim to the curb that he will be 100% focused on his NFL career. He is going to want another contract at some point and weather it is in NO or somewhere else he is going to try hard to cash in. He is one of the few players that has won a National Championship and a Super Bowl…Jeremy Shockey also on the Saints can claim this feat too. Bush will catch plenty of balls and probably is a candidate for about 60-75 total yds a week, 2-4 catches, and maybe a TD every other week, this would not be that hard to reach in this offense. He's a perfect flex player and might be ready for a big year if Pierre Thomas cannot cut it. 1st time in awhile where you can get him without overpaying but there still are folks attracted to the name and sometimes try and scoop him up a bit early. I like him but don't stretch for him.
C.J.Spiller: Spiller is going as late as the 8th in some drafts. He is signed and in camp so I don't really understand the hesitation in grabbing a guy who was taken 9th overall in the draft. What does Buffalo have tied up in Freddie Jackson? Spiller can catch, is elusive, and the Bills' OL is not as bad as some would like to believe. I actually think they will surprise a few teams this year and Spiller is an excellent RB2 prospect and an even better RB3 if you like to load up at the position.
Let's talk about that for a minute. If you avoid RBs early and wait till the 4th or 5th to start grabbing them that's fine but you need to hammer away at them in the middle rounds so you have some versatility going into the season. So you go WR/WR in the 1st and 2nd, QB in the 3rd, then you better be ready to go something like Addai, Barber, and Spiller in the 4th-5th-6th so you have some punch at the position and won't lose a lot of ground every week. Or you might be able to go Benson(3rd) Best (5th) Barber (6th), then maybe RB again in the 7th or 8th. Just be ready to pounce when value appears.
7th round
Ben Tate: I listed him 1st because he sticks out like a sore thumb and in a bad way. You have no business taking him here. I really cannot justify taking him before perhaps the 9th or even the 10th/11th as part of a combo from Houston. This should not be your RB2 going into 2010. I have nothing against Houston or their fan base, in fact I am going to discuss Slaton and Foster in just a bit but I do not think you want to be hitching your wagon to Tate. He was in my opinion a very average back and will be part of a 3 header at best. I don't envision him walking in and just tearing it up week 1. He also has missed time with injuries and I will be looking for more camp reports but so far I have not seen anything overly positive on the guy. Way better choices around here both at RB and other positions. Don't be the guy taking Tate in round 7, just don't.
Justin Forsett: He has been an interesting guy to talk about this off season but when it comes down to it I'm not sure you want to make him more than perhaps your RB3 and if he exceeds expectations again than good for you. He does have capabilities to catch and run the football so he has diversity but the Seahawks did bring in Leon Washington who is pretty good at catching the ball and despite a terrible leg injury he will be on pace to take the field this year and I think he is going to be given the opp to play significant time. Certainly in the 7th you are not risking as much but I've seen Justin go in the 6th too and I think that might be a little high. Seattle has a rough OL right now, a defense in flux, a new HC that has a checkered past it seems…this is not looking all that strong for 2010. Seattle does play in a very soft division and will have some nice weeks so I can see Forsett perhaps being an all or nothing type on various weeks. Again I think you should try and build a better boat and allow this enigma to land on someone else's roster for this year. I like his talent but it would have to be the right team of players already selected before I would be comfortable with him as anything like my RB2.
And this brings me to another point. Some folks like to point to a player's end of year stats and say that he was #23 so he was an RB2 in 12 team leagues…that's not true. How many guys do you know or have experienced first hand yourself that had the #10 RB as their RB1 and the #22 RB as their RB2 and won the league? The goal is to actually try and find guys that will likely finish top5 as your RB1, and top10-12 as your RB2, that's how you win, that's how you play pocket KKs, does that make sense? You want a big advantage on the field of other owners, not a little advantage. So yeah certain players might hit #21 on the year and could be a nice story but the guys you want to win your league with are studs and beyond that are guys that get hot in the money weeks.
Jerome Harrison: I like this guy and think he's perfect as an RB3 or a guy you can have in best ball. Montario Hardesty does not impress me and he also has been hurt quite a bit already. Harrison looked great down the stretch last year and with Mangini on a short leash I doubt he overlooks Harrison again. Jerome is not the biggest of backs but he has some speed and he gives the Browns a fighting chance running the ball. Cleveland has a nice OL in patches especially the left side but they seem to fall short of owning teams in the running game where they should be able to dominate. I think they have a fairly tough schedule and play in a very competitive division but Harrison is going to have his moments and I even like him as an RB2 platoon with a couple other backs you can grab in the next few rounds especially if you load up early at other positions. I got him in the 8th round of a recent draft and I was comfortable with him and the risk involved at that point. 540 yds rushing and 5 TDs in the final 3 weeks last year; just cannot turn a blind eye to this if you are Cleveland.
Ricky Williams: He has been a great story the past couple years and he has told the Miami Dolphins and most people tuning in that 2010 will be his last season of professional football. In a best ball format to pair with Ronnie I like him plenty but as a single back in a league where you actually have to plug him in I am not as big a fan. I told you about the murderous schedule that Miami is facing this year, I would not want to take a big position on them especially early in the season. That schedule scares the heck out of me. It hasn't been a big factor with other teams and backs but c'mon you can be honest when you look over Miami's schedule. You would have thought they won the Super Bowl last year.
8th round
Ahmad Bradshaw: His ADP is rising and I think you would probably need to grab him in the 7th or perhaps the 6th if you really want him. I always am intrigued with this guy but the end result doesn't always justify his draft spot. He really only had 3 strong games last year and they came later in the season and 2 of them were in the money weeks which is why I think I think he gets a lot of attention. The fact is he only caught 21 balls last year and for a guy that had 50 his Senior year in college he really has not been a reception machine in NY. Part of me wishes him on another team. And no matter what we think of him he still is going to lose touches to a healthy Brandon Jacobs. People have high hopes for him last year but I don't see him cracking the top12, maybe the top20 if he gets lucky but there are not a lot of easy games in New York, hopefully they use him more in the passing game.
Fred Jackson: The Freddie love drives me nuts. I liked him in the preseason a couple years ago and I think he is a nice story but the reality is Buffalo brought in a high profile pick at this position. It is only a matter of time until it's the CJ Spiller show not to mention they invested another 1st round pick in Marshawn Lynch that they have to do something with. Lynch had 1,000 yd rushing seasons to start his career. Jackson at best is a bye week filler IMO.
And let's talk about something that doesn't sit well in FF but I am going to say it again. It's a handful of players that make all the difference. Fred Jackson was #15 last year in non PPR leagues and higher when you add in his 46 receptions yet he was completely nonstartable in weeks 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, 10, 12, and 16. A lot of weeks you wanted no part of him but based on his total year end numbers he was a solid RB2 right? Is the light bulb starting to come on? Do you understand why I get so irritable at times when people start talking nonsense? The fact is most of the guys we are talking about won't make much difference in redraft leagues.
"Cadillac": God love him for battling back from some terrible injuries. I watched him last year as I root for the Bucs and I have to say while it's a nice story, he simply doesn't have it anymore. If people are ready to throw dirt on LT, what can be exciting about Williams at this point? This is a very limited offense with rookie WRs that fill up much of the roster and Freeman is an interesting QB but I've never seen so many red zone turnovers in my life. He did have a handful of games where he was productive and hopefully another year removed from injury this guy can make another leap back to what we saw the 1st 4 weeks of his career. Tampa Bay IMO is a 3-5 win team at best and I doubt they are running the clock out very much. I don't see a ton of upside here but he likely will get the most touches in TB barring injury.
Clinton Portis: I like this pick better than the one we just discussed. Portis I think offers some upside in Shanny's offense. They have overhauled the OL and will continue to do so, they brought in a solid QB that hopefully will help them in the vertical passing game as well as accurately work the short game, and they are going to roll with a zone blocking scheme which Portis feasted on in Denver. Portis in 2010 is not Portis in 2003 however he should see plenty of action. There were rumors of Larry Johnson coming in and establishing himself as part of a platoon but quite honestly I haven't heard glowing reports of LJ since camp opened. In fact what I keep hearing is Parker may not make the team and LJ is there mostly because Shanny always had a crush on the guy when he faced off against him when he was in charge in Denver. Portis suffered down the stretch last year as did the entire Redskins Nation, you wouldn't blame Portis if he wasn't inspired by the great Jim Zorn. I don't think you can go wrong with Portis as your RB3 and he might really surprise some this year.
Michael Bush: He is taken anywhere from about the 8th to sometimes as late as the double digit rounds. Let's discuss the bad first in Oakland. The OL mainly will be the focus and it is pretty sorry right now although they have help on the way thru the 2010 draft where they selected a couple players to come in and help. It is a work in progress and I think this will be the most glaring weakness on a team that I feel should be much improved. Their defense is going to be fairly strong and maybe the offense will get some more short fields to work on this year. I see the team as competitive and that should mean they are in ball games and the running game should be a nice option in the 4th quarter. People are hyping Bush and why not? He has a 4.8 ypc from 2010 with a very challenged OL and bo QB to take any pressure off or stretch the field. That is about to change. He had 14/119 against Denver and 18/133/Td against KC last year, nothing wrong with doing well against the division. It's a small leap of faith that McFadden doesn't overtake him on the depth charts but there is room for both of them to have their moments and in best ball you can make a pair out of them and probably be fine. I like this 8th round and the value you can find throughout.
9th round
Darren McFadden: I just talked about Michael Bush. One thing I didn't mention was that Bush had 19 targets last year and caught 17 balls so despite being 250 lbs he also has decent hands. I bring that up because if McFadden doesn't get more involved in the passing game he is going to be worthless on your roster. He was targeted 36 times and only caught 21 balls last year which for a RB is not good. I understand the horrible QB play but still Bush was able to haul them in. He battled injuries last year but only posted a 3.4 ypc vs Bush who was 4.8 with the same OL. I don't think McFadden has gotten off to the start that many would have hoped for but this year is his make it or break it year and I think he will pair up well with Bush and show more flashed of what we saw in college. A lo of projections have him at 800+ total yds, 30-40 receptions and about 3-5 TDs…the thing is we just don't know what Oakland has because of the damage JaMarcus Russell has caused over the past 3 seasons. Hopefully Campbell stabilizes things enough so we have a better idea of what these guys can fully do.
Montario Hardesty: Not a fan and he has been battling injuries since he was drafted. I'm not going to go over the Cleveland ground game again but safe to say in 2010 that I like Harrison by a lot of Hardesty and I would probably ignore him at this point in the draft. There are too many other sure things to take apposition on this guy and I also wouldn't want both Cleveland RBs on my roster. I would rather have the 5-6 good games form Harrison and fill the spots up with other players. If you have followed Hardesty since college and think he's the next best thing by all means educate the rest of us but his situation in 2010 IMO is somewhat bleak unless Harrison is sidelined for long periods of time and even then I am not real confident in him.
Thomas Jones: I have been scooping him up in the 10th round and later. Mostly as insurance with Jamaal Charles but Jones is coming off 6 seasons of 948, 1,335, 1,210, 1,119, 1312, and 1,402…folks his numbers have actually increased in total yds rushing the last 2-3 seasons. Three of the last five years he has been top 10 including 5th and 6th the past two years. You cannot ignore him completely although at 32 in a couple weeks and wearing down like he did towards the end of last year he probably should have his load lightened to around 200-225 carries and I think that is what Kansas City is going to do. It will not surprise me if they use him in short yardage situations although people have pointed out that he is one of the worst in that spot…we'll see what Weiss and Haley have planned for him but they signed him for a reason. At this point you know I am a KC fan this year with the schedule and new asst coaches they have brought in, safe to say I see Jones as a real bargain down here.
LaDainian Tomlinson: I cannot think of a better team for him to land with than the NY Jets. HE has a great OL in front of him, likely will not have to carry the ball more than about 12-15 times a game, and he will continue to score TDs as he is typically a scoring machine and has been for most of his career. He also is a great pass catching RB and will fill that role nicely on the team. Look for him to be in on all 3rd down situations and he is typically a great pass protector as well. All this leads to him IMO outplaying this position by a good margin. In the 9th and 10th rounds he is a steal. You are likely nabbing a top20 RB much later in the draft and he makes an excellent RB3 on your roster. You are not investing a lot here so take him and run. I have scooped him up whenever I can but his ADP is starting to creep up I believe.
10th Round
Donald Brown: I don't always approve of handcuffing but locking up the Colts for a 4th and a 10th is not a bad deal. Brown has to improve his pass blocking skills and specifically picking up the blitz. The team is built around Peyton Manning and that isn't going to change anytime soon. I wasn't overly impressed with Brown and will be interested to see what Indy does with him if and when Addai leaves after this year. At this point he is probably going to get perhaps a third of the carries at best. Still you would love to have him if Addai pulls up with an injury. He's worth a roster spot if you have Addai.
And this brings me to another point. Just like in the NFL you need to think about the cohesion of your own team. If you drafted Shonn Greene, then took Reggie Bush as your RB2, what are you doing grabbing Donald Brown as your RB3??? You are never going to start him unless he overtakes Addai so why roster someone that you never want to start. A wise staff member taught me to never roster a guy that you would not want to start if you had to…so be careful who you take in all positions on your team. Waiver wire fodder is not what you want. Instead you want to build a team of as many starters as possible so you have more choices and can feel good about moving guys into your starting line up. Back to the show…
Darren Sproles: I have taken this guy in the 12th round in some drafts. Seems to be a forgotten man but he sure didn't do much last year after he received a large lump sum form the Chargers. I can't ever see him carrying the ball 20 times a game but he can be effective and his receiving skills are going to be needed for a team that has some challenges with Vincent Jackson being suspended and also holding out. Sproles should see a lot of action as I don't see Ryan Mathews being a great receiving back coming out of college. That might change but for now Sproles knows the system and can make an impact in the short passing game. He had 900 total yds, 7TDs, and 45 receptions. If you could find that from a WR around here you would be doing back flips so I think he can be an effective flex player and that is how I would draft him. Part of a platoon as an RB2 in best ball if you feel like you are getting cornered, there's a place for this guy and rookies tend to wear down as the season progresses so look for Sproles to put together of decent games this season. For his draft spot you could do worse.
Tim Hightower: 1,000 total yds, 8TDs, and 63 receptions…why is Beanie Wells going in the 3rd exactly? TJT is not pretty always but I cannot imagine that he is totally pushed aside either. His ypc came up a good yard and a half last season and he brings a lot to the passing game for them. Granted Warner is gone but if you think Hightower is going to fade away in the passing game then how can you have any confidence taking Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of the 1st round? Can you understand that at least some? If Leinart is having problems I would think some short dump off passes are just what the Whisenhunt ordered. I think Hightower is a decent flex player on a best ball team. He is in the same range as a Sproles and folks overlook him all the time.
Chester Taylor: Guy is intriguing to say the least. Chicago wasted no time in signing him to $7 million guaranteed this year and they bring in Mike Martz who likes to throw the ball a lot. I love Taylor as an RB3 and think he has a chance to be the main event in Chicago. Maybe not getting 15+ carries a game but I envision somewhere in the 60 yd per week avg, good amount of receptions, TDs are a guess but 6-7 would be reasonable for him. Chicago is going to struggle to find any consistency form their WRs and I expect Martz to turn to the backs more and work the underneath routes more. Again as part of a platoon at RB2/3 in best ball I think he is fine. Good value at this point in the draft.
11th and 12th round
Laurence Maroney: Guy continues to be a mystery but he was doing well while the other backs were ailing last season. If he starts he probably is good for about 750-800 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs, not much of a threat in the passing game. It's not the end of the world if you don't grab this guy and stop building a scenario in your head where this guy explodes for 1,200 and 10 TDs, isn't going to happen although he was inching closer last year. I think he needs out of New England.
Steve Slaton: Had a nasty injury to his neck. You can look around the internet and see the screw/bolt whatever they used to put his neck back together. I'm leery of him but I would feel better about getting him around this spot and maybe even drafting the guy to pair with him that I will discuss next.
Arian Foster: I like Foster and all reports are that he is winning the camp battle to this point. That could change during the preseason games, I would make an effort to watch this guy and see if he is special. MY guess is the RB spot is fluid in Houston and that Kubiak may simply go with the hot hand but even that being the case, I still like the Slaton/Foster leg of this over Tate in the 7th round which is ridiculous to me. Foster has good sixe and was starting to emerge towards the end of last year. I would definitely keep an eye on him because if he looks good you might land a starting RB here in the 12th as your RB4 that you can actually get some mileage out of.
Willis McGahee: He is an absolute must handcuff for those that took Ray Rice. If Rice were to go down with an injury, suddenly McGahee would be a viable option and maybe even a top10-12 back in that offense. He already is stealing TDs from Rice but I actually look for him to be in the thick of it when the Ravens have a lead and are trying to run the clock down. He's a nice grab at this point in the draft and costs you so very little.
13th and beyond…anytime at this point you can feel free to grab whoever you want, folks look at ADP here but I tend to just grab a player I like with some upside.
Leon Washington: If he is recovered from his injury he stands just as good a chance as any to get the most points on Seattle for owners this year. Forsett owners don't want to hear this but I think he has some nice skills and they are going to use him if he recovers form that terrible leg injury. Again you are not investing much here so if he takes the field at all in preseason I would think about scooping him up.
CBuckhalter: Injured right now, when is he not? I'm just not a fan of Denver this year and to me there are better options on the board.
Larry Johnson: I talked about him a little bit in the Portis write up. I was higher on him when he was signed in the Spring, now I am lukewarm at best.
Mike Bell: I am not sold on McCoy and think Bell was brought in for the tough yards and also around the goal line too. He could be a decent RB4 or even RB5. I have seen him go as late as the 20th round in some drafts. No one likes him.
Tashard Choice: If you have Barber you should really grab this guy and stash him on your roster. Not flashy but he has proven when they call on his number that he is ready to roll.
Brian Westbrook: Not on a roster right now and his candle burns out more and more every day he is not in a camp. I don't think he wants to face the reality that only teams that are going nowhere are interested in signing him right now. Rumors are out there that Philly would take him back if he doesn't land somewhere else, we'll see.
Marshawn Lynch: You draft him if you think Buffalo can move him. Right now his trade value is in the tank but I don't see it coming up if he is relegated to RB3 behind Spiller and Jackson.
Very Late to undrafted
Jerious Norwood: When Turner was down so was Norwood. They could have let him walk but they tendered him anyways. I like him to be part of the offense more. Certainly he should see action on 3rd downs and might surprise a few folks. He has explosiveness in his game and he could be a huge sleeper this year. As an RB5 or later I like his upside despite Turner having a monster grip on the position.
James Starks: RB in Green Bay that was drafted this past Spring. Just keep an eye on him as he could end up on the field in a very potent offense so we like those type of guys with some upside very late in drafts.
So let's land the plane and try to bring some of this together. Understand how important it is to bring groups of players together. If you have MJD as your RB1, you can get more frisky with your RB2 or RB3 and take more chances. If you come out of the box with Shonn Greene who is somewhat of an unknown for the entire season or Chris Wells, you probably do not want to grab Justin Forsett as your RB2, that's simply too much unnecessary risk involved. A roster of all huge upside guys can blow up in your face so you want to layer your roster with guys that can be steady and also a couple guys that have some upside. I'm not saying you can't draft those RBs I just went over but if you do it would be beneficial to grab a couple of other RBs that are a little more steady so you can lock down studs at other positions. Remember that all players on your roster must serve a purpose. Don't draft players that you would never want to start, that's a recipe for disaster.
I look forward to reading your thoughts and opinions. Let's be open minded and allow folks the opp to speak their minds, explain their positions and why they want to choose certain players. I hope this thread can be a working lab. Go and dominate your leagues folks!
Thank you,
Sean aka MOP
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MOP!I have some thoughts (agree/disagree) for later, but this was a great read. Congrats.Also:
I own Wells in several dynasty leagues because of his talent. If he performs like he did at the tail end of the year I will be happy, but there is just too many questions surrounding that team on both sides of the ball to take him when I could have the sure thing in Marshall, CJ, Jennings, White.
I own Wells in several dynasty leagues because of his talent. If he performs like he did at the tail end of the year I will be happy, but there is just too many questions surrounding that team on both sides of the ball to take him when I could have the sure thing in Marshall, CJ, Jennings, White.
