Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
good to see a devil ray smoo reference in here.
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Red Sox trade Arroyo (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SteelCurtain
- Start date
HellToupee
Footballguy
Mr Fantasy is alive & well at baseball tangent 
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
He'll start hacking away once the season starts.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
There were some posts about his play in the dominican winter team or something like that. IT was over at RSN.net... I'll try to dig it up later if I find timeBaseically he knows he needs to chill at the plate and has made some pretty big strides. I doubt he'll make some massive leap but we'll see
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Insoxicated
From the thread RSN.net
That's not the specific post I was looking for but it gives some insight that hte kid knows he's got to work on that side of his game. From the same thread... apparently PECOTA loves Pena down the road:
2006: .283 .346 .566
2007: .290 .354 .578
2008: .291 .364 .604
in terms of VORP
2006: 24
2007: 27.9
2008: 34.3
though his upside projections are much better than this ... topping out at 47.4 in 2009
and WARP
2006: 3.2
2007: 3.8
2008: 4.4
Boston has control of Pena for 06/07/08 under the current contract
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Insoxicated
From a scouting card:
Scouting Report
2004 Season
There was no more positive development last year for Cincinnati than the emergence of Wily Mo Pena. Long considered an exceptional talent, Pena finally got a chance to play every day and he took advantage of the opportunity. He was second on the Reds in home runs and fourth in RBI, all produced in barely more than 300 at-bats (of which a third amazingly resulted in strikeouts). He also impressed the Reds by recovering from a slump following his hot first six weeks as a starter and rebounded to have a strong September.
Hitting
Pena doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone's power. He can turn around fastballs with tape-measure results and is able to reach inside pitches more frequently after slightly backing off the plate. Pena, however, remains a raw product still bedeviled by breaking balls and does not wait on offspeed pitches. He can go through long stretches in which he struggles to make contact and he has little feel for working counts, though his patience improved as his exposure to major league pitching increased. He has also shown the ability to kill lefthanded pitching.
Baserunning & Defense
Despite his good size, Pena has above-average speed and should be able to steal in double figures as he gains more experience. He has excellent range and a cannon for a throwing arm, and the Reds think his tools could allow him to play center field, though his experience largely has been in the corner outfield positions.
2005 Outlook
Among Pena's many attributes is a strong work ethic that has impressed the Reds' coaches. He improved significantly in all areas last year, and Pena likely will come to spring training with the Reds' center-field job. His breakthrough season was not a fluke, and if he continues just normal development, he has the ability to be another 40-homer giant in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup.
Scouting Report
2004 Season
There was no more positive development last year for Cincinnati than the emergence of Wily Mo Pena. Long considered an exceptional talent, Pena finally got a chance to play every day and he took advantage of the opportunity. He was second on the Reds in home runs and fourth in RBI, all produced in barely more than 300 at-bats (of which a third amazingly resulted in strikeouts). He also impressed the Reds by recovering from a slump following his hot first six weeks as a starter and rebounded to have a strong September.
Hitting
Pena doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone's power. He can turn around fastballs with tape-measure results and is able to reach inside pitches more frequently after slightly backing off the plate. Pena, however, remains a raw product still bedeviled by breaking balls and does not wait on offspeed pitches. He can go through long stretches in which he struggles to make contact and he has little feel for working counts, though his patience improved as his exposure to major league pitching increased. He has also shown the ability to kill lefthanded pitching.
Baserunning & Defense
Despite his good size, Pena has above-average speed and should be able to steal in double figures as he gains more experience. He has excellent range and a cannon for a throwing arm, and the Reds think his tools could allow him to play center field, though his experience largely has been in the corner outfield positions.
2005 Outlook
Among Pena's many attributes is a strong work ethic that has impressed the Reds' coaches. He improved significantly in all areas last year, and Pena likely will come to spring training with the Reds' center-field job. His breakthrough season was not a fluke, and if he continues just normal development, he has the ability to be another 40-homer giant in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup.
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Insoxicated
Another analysis >
" Pena has been unable to work his way through the minor league system due to contractual issues and was thrown into the major leagues in 2002 at only 20 years old. Since then he has yet to play a full season, but has shown great power potential by hitting 26 home runs in just 364 at-bats in 2004 and 19 home runs in 311 at-bats last year.
If you look at his isolated power (ISO), he was nearly off the charts to start the 2005 season, but he came back to earth after a number of nagging injuries (quadriceps, knee and wrist). While his ISO is definitely within the top 20% of all batters in 2005, his HR/FB is quite spectacular at just over 30%, the third-highest in baseball. Unfortunately, there's another stat in which Pena ranks very highly: strikeouts.
guess "very highly" is a bit of an understatement; he's number one (or dead last, depending on how you look at it) in strikeout percentage (K%). He actually got worse when just a year ago he struck out in 32% of his at-bats as opposed to his 37% in 2005. His walk percentage (BB%) isn't much to write home about either, as he only walks in just over 6% of his plate appearances. He did, however, show improvement in his walks toward the end of the season, which seems to have carried over into the Dominican Winter League where he had 13 walks and 19 strikeouts in 80 at-bats."
" Pena has been unable to work his way through the minor league system due to contractual issues and was thrown into the major leagues in 2002 at only 20 years old. Since then he has yet to play a full season, but has shown great power potential by hitting 26 home runs in just 364 at-bats in 2004 and 19 home runs in 311 at-bats last year.
If you look at his isolated power (ISO), he was nearly off the charts to start the 2005 season, but he came back to earth after a number of nagging injuries (quadriceps, knee and wrist). While his ISO is definitely within the top 20% of all batters in 2005, his HR/FB is quite spectacular at just over 30%, the third-highest in baseball. Unfortunately, there's another stat in which Pena ranks very highly: strikeouts.
guess "very highly" is a bit of an understatement; he's number one (or dead last, depending on how you look at it) in strikeout percentage (K%). He actually got worse when just a year ago he struck out in 32% of his at-bats as opposed to his 37% in 2005. His walk percentage (BB%) isn't much to write home about either, as he only walks in just over 6% of his plate appearances. He did, however, show improvement in his walks toward the end of the season, which seems to have carried over into the Dominican Winter League where he had 13 walks and 19 strikeouts in 80 at-bats."
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Insoxicated
just wanting to say that I don't think this guy is going to jump out and go David ortiz on us here... but they kid is young and has shown some raw talent. In Boston under the wings of fellow Dominican's Ramirez and Ortiz (as well as with the assistance of Papa Jack) he COULD improve his discipline and post resepectable numbers in the future.
This year I doubt he's much more than a role player / platoon guy.
This year I doubt he's much more than a role player / platoon guy.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
i think getting wily mo is robbery for the sox. great trade for them.
Rustoleum
Footballguy
Wow. This must not be the same Wily Mo Pena I've watched in Cincy these past few years. Granted, when he's hot he hits the crap out of it, but he stinks defensively, looks lost on the basepaths, and has been questioned about his toughness in dealing with nagging injuries.I absolutely shudder at the concept of Ramirez tutoring someone in this regard.
Still, the Red Sox were looking for some power, and the Reds need pitching desperately, as well as a departure from the 4-headed outfield of the past few years, so I think both fanbases think they have the better end of this deal.
Fla\/\/ed
Footballguy
The kid is only 24 years old and has shown enough upside that this is a great deal for the Red Sox. Also, two years ago the Reds were forced to keep him on their major league roster because Pena was out of options. He only received 165 ABs in 2003 due to this and that delayed his development.Wow. This must not be the same Wily Mo Pena I've watched in Cincy these past few years. Granted, when he's hot he hits the crap out of it, but he stinks defensively, looks lost on the basepaths, and has been questioned about his toughness in dealing with nagging injuries.I absolutely shudder at the concept of Ramirez tutoring someone in this regard.
Still, the Red Sox were looking for some power, and the Reds need pitching desperately, as well as a departure from the 4-headed outfield of the past few years, so I think both fanbases think they have the better end of this deal.
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Ham Wallet
Footballguy
Bronson: DOH!!
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Agreed. I love the deal for the Sox.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Frequently.Do you ever disagree with Pickles?
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
I agree with this.Frequently.Do you ever disagree with Pickles?
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Do not.I agree with this.Frequently.Do you ever disagree with Pickles?
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Oops. Sorry.Do not.I agree with this.Frequently.Do you ever disagree with Pickles?
On The Rocks
Evil Conservative
Wiley Mo if given the chance to play every day....i don't care lefty or righty on the mound.....will hit 40 HR's and 90+ RBI every year.
He could do that right now.....and he is still developing.
I like this move a lot especially since the REDS are so desparate for pitching.
He could do that right now.....and he is still developing.
I like this move a lot especially since the REDS are so desparate for pitching.
MrPhoenix
Ron Paul Soldier
Reds have a stockpile of outfielders, Red Sox have a surplus of starting pitching.Reds need a quality starting pitcher, Red Sox need righty platoon partner for Nixon and possible eventual replacement.
Reds trade OF Pena for SP Arroyo. Red Sox get platoon partner, Reds.....well, they'll still suck, but at least they have a decent starting pitcher.
Good trade for both, I'd give light edge to the Sox based on Pena's potential.
Good day, mate.
Borat
Footballguy
I'm not so sure. Arrojo isn't very good. He's decent, but a #3 starter at the absolute best. Really, he's a 4, in my opinion. To get a guy with Pena's ceiling for him seems like a pretty solid deal.Even if the Reds couldn't get anyone better, maybe they should've looked into dealing Griffey or Dunn and keeping Pena.
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
I'm sure they considered it. I doubt anyone would want to take on Griffey's contract.Fact is, Pena is a liability in the field and on the basepaths, he's got a .300 lifetime OBP (which isn't very good for a "power" guy) and he was only being used in a platoon situation in Cincy. The Reds need pitching. Period. I'm not saying Arroyo is the savior, but this step was a move in the right direction.I'm not so sure. Arrojo isn't very good. He's decent, but a #3 starter at the absolute best. Really, he's a 4, in my opinion. To get a guy with Pena's ceiling for him seems like a pretty solid deal.Even if the Reds couldn't get anyone better, maybe they should've looked into dealing Griffey or Dunn and keeping Pena.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Rolando?
Rustoleum
Footballguy
Have you seen the Reds' staff? He's probably a 2, 2a for them. Maybe there was a better deal out there, but I don't see the Reds taking on a high $$$ pitcher until they can get rid of Milton's contract.I think they would have gotten less for Griffey, not to mention the PR fallout on the new ownership group. And if I have my choice of high strikeout power hitters, I'm keeping Dunn. He is adequate at two positions draws all those walks.I'm not so sure. Arrojo isn't very good. He's decent, but a #3 starter at the absolute best. Really, he's a 4, in my opinion. To get a guy with Pena's ceiling for him seems like a pretty solid deal.Even if the Reds couldn't get anyone better, maybe they should've looked into dealing Griffey or Dunn and keeping Pena.
On The Rocks
Evil Conservative
agreed...on the typical ML staff he is a #3 at the very best....and used the way he should have been used with the Red Sox, but with the Reds,.....who are so overwhelmingly pitching poor, he is an instant #2 behind Harang who is also a #3 at best on any other ML Staff.Have you seen the Reds' staff? He's probably a 2, 2a for them. Maybe there was a better deal out there, but I don't see the Reds taking on a high $$$ pitcher until they can get rid of Milton's contract.I think they would have gotten less for Griffey, not to mention the PR fallout on the new ownership group. And if I have my choice of high strikeout power hitters, I'm keeping Dunn. He is adequate at two positions draws all those walks.I'm not so sure. Arrojo isn't very good. He's decent, but a #3 starter at the absolute best. Really, he's a 4, in my opinion. To get a guy with Pena's ceiling for him seems like a pretty solid deal.Even if the Reds couldn't get anyone better, maybe they should've looked into dealing Griffey or Dunn and keeping Pena.
SteelCurtain
Footballguy
I still think it was a bad deal by the Sox. Wells is going to be an issue here at some point and Arrojo was willing to go to the bullpen in the meantime.
Oh well...what's done is done.
Oh well...what's done is done.
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Insoxicated
Okay... Right now We've got 6 starters:
Schilling
Beckett
Clement
Wakefield
Wells
Papelbon
So let's say Wells becomes an issue...
Schilling
Beckett
Clement
Wakefield
Papelbon
Now let's assuem Beckett goes on the DL with blister problems at the SAME TIme that Wells has problems..... big deal, we bring up Alvarez or Lester (both of whom Boston is expecting to contribute in some form to the big club this year) for a spot start or three.
While I suppose the luxury of carrying 7 starters JUST IN CASE is nice... it's frankly a bit of a waste of a roster spot. If Boston has any plans of Papelbon seeing the rotation then Arroyo was certainly a bit of a roadbllock as well (despite his willingness to pitch out of the pen for stretches, that is NOT where he's effective and there was no way we were going to leave him out there all year.
If you like Arroyo.. that's fine. He was an intriguing kid and one who pitched with stones at times.... but this was certainly a good trade for the Sox.
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
I don't think it helps either.
Pena won't get enough at bats to improve, if he's platooning with Trot. Too many holes in Pena's swing, and too much money locked up in Nixon to do otherwise.
Arroyo will give up too many dingers in Cincy, and he's only good against right handers. They got another Cory Lidle.
Pena won't get enough at bats to improve, if he's platooning with Trot. Too many holes in Pena's swing, and too much money locked up in Nixon to do otherwise.
Arroyo will give up too many dingers in Cincy, and he's only good against right handers. They got another Cory Lidle.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Arrojo is living off the 04 WS hype. This is a steal for the RedSox. Pena will be big this year......
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
This is a weird trade from the perspective that fans on both sides seem to think they got a bad deal.
I am not speaking for myself but for the most part this is what the yahoos are saying on the local talk radio stations.
I am not speaking for myself but for the most part this is what the yahoos are saying on the local talk radio stations.
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Pat Patriot
Footballguy
I dont see where Arroyo took a hometown discount. He is a #4/#5 starter and got $4 million per year. Sounds pretty good to me.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
But where and how often is he going to play? If he is platooned with Nixon and only plays against lefties, he won't get many plate appearances.If the Sox found someone to trade Nixon to, this makes more sense (or if Trot is still hurt and they don't see Nixon playing much).
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
I don't get it either. Local news poll yesterday found that 60% of Reds fans "disapprove" of the trade.
Yet these are the same people who are #####ing about not having a winner on the field.
I just think too many fans become emotionally attached to anyone in their favorite team's uniform.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Pena will play every day in 2007. He'll play a fair amount this year too. Nixon won't last the whole season.
Alias
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
There's no doubting Pena's ability to rake. Given the chance to play everyday he'll put up good numbers. While's Nixons blocking him in RF on the depth chart right now..... I think that a combination of Nixon injuries and Pena's ability to hit will make Pena the unquestioned starter by the All-Star break. I know there is no way to predict injuries ...... but its a just a gut feeling that I have that this guy is going to raise the level of his game in Boston and that Francona will be forced to put him in front of Nixon irregardless of injury. I think that they'll be calling him 'Lil Man-Ram by the end of the season.
Horrible nickname.SteelCurtain
Footballguy
I think counting on Lester/Alvarez now is too risky.I think Wells will cause problems and I have zero faith in Foulke. I would plan on Papelbom being in the closer or set up role this year.
Wells gone.
Arroyo as the #5 starter.
Listen...I'm not trying to say that Arroyo is the second coming of Cy Young. He's a guy that has handled the pressure (not all can). He's a guy willing to pitch anywhere. He's a guy who is very low on the payroll.
I know we have a lot of starters. I don't think I've heard of a team having too many starters in August. It seems like everyone is trying to plug holes with who ever they can find at that point. (Jeremi Gonzalez started for the Sox in the recent past.)
Are you trying to say we need MORE outfielders? Obviously the three starters. How about Stern? Kapler? Mohr? David Murphy in minors? etc, etc.
Finally, it bothers me that they kind of screwed him in regards to the hometown discount. Don't expect any player to give the Sox a home town discount anymore.
