... determine the most significant implications of predicting the RB position. The first and most important of the three significance implications of the RB position is likelihood of injury.
There is a method in which any individual can, with a high degree of accuracy, estimate the likelihood of injury to any NFL running back. While there is no clear cut method that is infallible, there are several factors that will determine the preseason production value of a RB when predicting their injury likelihood. Those factors include touches (carries and receptions), past injury, age, size, and projected use.
We will begin by analyzing and breakin’ down “touches”, which is the most important of these five factors and includes carries and receptions by a running back.
... there is no magic number or rule surrounding fantasy football with RB touches such as the 3 year wide receiver rule, I believe there certainly should be one. The first major red flag is the 400 touch plateau. Very few RBs yearly have the ability to make it to the 400 plus touches plateau in the NFL in a year, but for those who do, beware.
The next one year plateau of touches to be aware of is 370 touches or more.
After two consecutive years, any starting back totaling over 730 touches and especially those backs totaling over 800 touches, are in extreme danger of a significant injury or nagging injuries in the third year. Although the real plateau to be worried about is over 800 touches in 2 years time, as is documented above, there have been several backs having between 730-800 touches after two years, who have struggled to stay healthy in the following season.
... the importance of past injury, age, size, and projected use when it comes to injury projections. Past injury should vastly determine the likelihood-of-injury scale
Age may be the most obvious of the five factors with the over 30 rule being pretty sound. For those of you in the woods, if a back is over 30, be very careful and handcuff him accordingly. Size is also a “no brainer” as a factor when it comes to a RB injury. If a RB is small in both height and weight, the odds go up. Another important factor within the realm of size is the lanky RB (tall in height, light in weight). Running backs Chris Brown (6-3, 219) and DeShaun Foster (6-0, 222) should immediately come to mind. They are prime examples of a RB with too much height, not enough weight, and most importantly an upright running style. There are very few taller backs that stay alive running upright in the NFL.
The last factor, projected use, ties in heavily with the first factor of touches. For instance, Clinton Portis had 383 touches in 2004 for the Washington Redskins. In 2005, the projections for touches would suggest he would have a similar number, thus decreasing the likelihood of him making it through ‘05 starting more than 12 games. A prime example of this is last year with both Priest Holmes and Jamal Lewis, both of whom had a ton of touches in 2004 (Holmes 394 and Lewis 413). Most NFL experts expected both backs to carry the load for their teams in 2005, however both ended up missing significant time in 2005 as already documented.